You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
I’m with Lunge on this. It has to happen, and it probably has to happen before many of us would like.
This clearly doesn’t ‘have’ to happen. Also, ’before many of us would like’ covers a big spectrum of options.
Five-year-old child among latest UK coronavirus deaths
However the child had underlying health conditions. I believe the youngest person without any underlying conditions to die in the UK was a 13 yr old boy, however it is still very unlikely to happen statistically.
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
This. And when social services can't get access because they're "in quarantine" it just gets worse. The kids going to school are the ones who's parents give a crap, the others, unsurprisingly, aren't.
apologies, my iPad has suddenly become possessed.
2. Is social issues. As already touched on, the majority of people on here have enough money for an internet connection, food on the table and a grand or 2 of bikes. I don’t doubt there are exceptions but I’d be confident in saying that is true for a majority. I’d also suggest that the vast majority will be treating their kids well and trying to educate them as best they can. But, we are not everyone. There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home. There are also parents who are struggling and having the kids at school for a few hours every day will hugely help them as well.
The current way of life can’t and won’t go on forever, and I see the schools going back as a priorty.
When this pandemic is over and we look to how we move forward as a country (yeah, right) perhaps we might look at greatly reducing social inequality. Because, the idea that we can have such huge inequalities and can ‘narrow the gap’ and protect the vulnerable with a few actions taken in schools is insulting to people’s intelligence. It truly grates to hear politicians in power and anyone who supports them arguing for an urgent reopening of schools to protect the disadvantaged!
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
That's just bollox.
You can see from the thread that those who can't be arsed with lockdown any more are crying out for a return to free childcare. The best thing that can happen before getting that first can of Stella cracked is getting the kids out the way.
Our school is 5min walk from the main hospital.
The one's with places that aren't going in are the keyworkers kids , doing everything they can to rotate shifts and avoid that extra contamination risk. They're not all going back before September whatever Boris says.
However the child had underlying health conditions. I believe the youngest person without any underlying conditions to die in the UK was a 13 yr old boy, however it is still very unlikely to happen statistically
The point of my post was to show that kids can get it, as opposed to the swiss guy who said they cant. The fact that this child tragically died just made it easier to google a confirmed case in a child.
Really? It’s a pretty simple problem, there aren’t that many variables in it. a_a has pointed out some of them, what class needs what room, the distance between classes, etc. It’s a machine learning problem, optimising resource allocation for a given set of constraints – and there’s nothing particularly new about it.
The variables are enormous and frequently human.
For example - a tiny example from a myriad of simultaneous similar senarios.....
I am in a weekly meeting with 10 other pastoral staff. It happens once a week in a timetabled lesson slot. Of the 11 staff involved 10 are teachers, teaching in 8 different depts. We all need to be free at the same time. If you attend that meeting you are clearly unable to teach a lesson happening at that time. But if you can't teach at that time you also cant teach the remainder of the classes that class has at other times of the week. Some year groups have one double period per subject per week, some 2, some 3 and some 4 so the option group intertwine over the top of each other. Sometimes the person in that meeting is the only person with the skillset to teach a specific subject so the class has to move, sometimes not. To move a lesson so it does not clash with the meeting might mean that the lesson clashes with another subject that the student is doing. To reassign the class to someone who is free then might mean they are unable to teach another class. Or the person the class is reassigned to is part time and not contracted to teach when another lesson the class has at another point in the week. To move a class in some subjects means you are competing for finite resources like science labs and Design workshops. A finite size of dining hall means an eye needs to be kept on the total teaching happening so that enough students can be free to go to one of the lunch sessions.
A small school - 87 teaching staff, part and full time (PT with different contracted hours) as well as job shares and negotiated flexibility for those returning from mat leave as well as 26 teachers working in multiple departments. 500 students. 52 different combinations of A level subjects within the current cohorts, 67 combinations of different GCSE subjects currently being taken. There is always contract renegotiation with PT staff and difficult conversations with parents/students when subject combinations fail to be possible to get a best fit.
As A_A says there are software solutions to help (our timetabler does use excel, but also uses the telephone as a tool for the job) with this and as is manifest by the thousands and thousands of schools that successfully achieve it every year, it is clearly a riddle that can be solved but to dismiss it as a cinch is to fail to understand the nuance.
For context a colleague's husband is a 6 figure salary JIT factory planning specialist who is familiar enough with the brief that he does not dismiss it as a few minutes with an excel sheet. It is also worth bearing in mind that the member of staff given the role of sorting it will be doing so on top of a full timetable minus a couple of periods a week and an extra couple of £K.
What is the point of social distancing in a relatively enclosed area where children are to be present for 6-7 hours per day?
Isn’t social distancing mainly intended to be effective for periods of interaction <15 minutes?
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
That’s just bollox.
It very much isnt, schools are currently open for key worker kids and vulnerables, many/majority of those vulnerables are not coming in.
To the poster who thinks time tabling will be easy, go for it you can earn good money doing it as many schools outsource.
Tallpaul
Indeed, this is a question I’d like a considered answer to.
On a slight tangent:
When a person, infectious with the virus coughs and sneezes, I can imagine the issues caused by the large particles emitted (and there is little chance of getting all the staff successfully coughing into their elbow, never mind pupils, in my experience). It’s the smaller particles emitted during breathing that I struggle with. Do these behave much like being able to smell vape from a vaper, or being able to smell perfume and deodorant the other side of a room. Because, if breath alone can spread the virus around a room in a similar way and remain viable on hard surfaces for days...
They’re not going in though, their parents can’t be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can’t fall under the radar.
That’s just bollox.
What about those children who can’t get to schools because buses are not running and parents don’t have cars or have to go to work. Many at risk children will have parents working in the actually very essential sector which has only just reached the public’s consciousness. There are a range of issues in play.
To the poster who thinks time tabling will be easy, go for it you can earn good money doing it as many schools outsource.
A neighbour is the school timetable monkey and he says that the IT programmes just support the process/make it a quicker process but relying on them entirely is still not possible.
Thank you @convert for a more detailed explanation, and you're right, my apologies for being flippant in suggesting an Excel would be up to the job. Nonetheless it doesn't seem particularly intractible, most of what you have commented apart from personal preferences doesn't seem that hard to model. I still think the main problem boils down to a lack of funding - no one's willing to pay for the software to do this, and as long as schools can get away with "the member of staff given the role of sorting it will be doing so on top of a full timetable minus a couple of periods a week and an extra couple of £K" that's unlikely to change.
Convert wrote:
For example – a tiny example from a myriad of simultaneous similar senarios…..
I am in a weekly meeting with 10 other pastoral staff. It happens once a week in a timetabled lesson slot. Of the 11 staff involved 10 are teachers, teaching in 8 different depts. We all need to be free at the same time. If you attend that meeting you are clearly unable to teach a lesson happening at that time.
The first question I'd be asking my staff would be what's the purpose of that meeting, why does it need to happen during teaching hours, and can it be done any other way?
Find a way to change that, and then all the other issues vanish.
For example, we used to have a meeting every Friday. Turned out it was mostly just used for comms and it got replaced by an email. This saved 135 customer billable hours worth around £200k to my organisation.
The first question I’d be asking my staff would be what’s the purpose of that meeting, why does it need to happen during teaching hours, and can it be done any other way?
Find a way to change that, and then all the other issues vanish.
They would not be 'your staff' as they are the most senior folk in the place - you would be their staff! And your role would be to 'make it so'! The other issues are only an issue if you are not prepared to put the graft in to find a solution. Been here 14 years (though only had to be in that meeting for the last 4). It has always been possible to timetable the meeting. So it is not an issue just an example of the complexity that you might not be aware of if your expertise in all matters school is that you once went to one. And yes, it does need to happen and yes it does need to happen during the timetabled day because of the roles of the staff involved.
So, it's the head's responsibly to ask the question then. Seniority doesn't mean you can't have difficult questions asked of you.
Ultimately, it's just a scheduling problem and it's not unsurmountable. Being a school doesn't make it special and just requires a willingness to work the problem through and entertain different solutions, rather than saying 'this is what we do, and if we can't carry on doing it, we're not going to bother'.
Sarky comments about my expertise in schooling are unnecessary.
Why does the meeting need to be in teaching hours due to the roles involved? What's special about the roles? What are they discussing? Can't they schedule it over lunch time? Or during morning break? Or god forbid, after 3:30pm?
My wife is a teacher. Can't say i'm looking forward to the teachers going back to school - i'd rather they all stay off than potentially expose my wife to a life threatening illness.
The above not withstanding, the latest study (a big one with 17k participants) shows that the highest co-morbidities are age and weight. The implications seems to be that when lockdown is eased, the old will be told to continue to isolate, along with those with the worse co-morbidities (e.g. BMI of more than 30). I'm assuming the prevalence of obese teachers is similar to the population as a whole (which is 31% with 63% being overweight) + lots of them are old. As far as I can see, losing more than a third of the workforce is going to be a non-starter in terms of going back - unless the government decides to chuck teachers on the same bonfire they're currently chucking NHS staff.
So, it’s the head’s responsibly to ask the question then. Seniority doesn’t mean you can’t have difficult questions asked of you.
He is the one of the 11 in my scenario. And yes he, like me believes it is vital.
Ultimately, it’s just a scheduling problem and it’s not unsurmountable.
As I keep saying - it is not insurmountable. It is solved every year with minimal fuss. It just requires a bit of head scratching and more than a few minutes with a spreadsheet.
Why does the meeting need to be in teaching hours due to the roles involved? What’s special about the roles? What are they discussing? Can’t they schedule it over lunch time? Or during morning break? Or god forbid, after 3:30pm?
It really is none of your concern beyond me saying this is the case. This is a boarding school running 7 days a week. Staff in this group have working hours from 0700-0000 7 days a week (and overnight cover too). Outside of the teaching day too many would have other roles in which they are irreplaceable. They simply could not all be free at the same time beyond the teaching day (which is for us 0825-1730)
These kids are already going in.
This is not really an argument to re-open schools to the others.
As said above, they’re not and they won’t be until it’s compulsory to send them.
As I said, whenever they reopen it will feel too soon for some and not soon enough for others.
And when they do open they will need to be hard on parents who choose not to send their kids.
I’m confused. Is the answer to timetabling issues, to not teach during the school day and have meetings then? ‘Cause really, none of the pupils pay any attention anyway 😭
Why does the meeting need to be in teaching hours due to the roles involved? What’s special about the roles? What are they discussing? Can’t they schedule it over lunch time? Or during morning break? Or god forbid, after 3:30pm?
Considering this is an SLT meeting, in my school it may be for example about child protection. Now it cant be done at break or lunch as SLT are on duty supervising kids as well as the other staff supervising kids. After school teaching hours SLT will be most likely busy meeting parents, most parent meetings have to be outside of the parents working hours, as they are SLT they will also have lighter teaching loads so during timetabled hours is precisely the best time to get vital meetings done by these people.
Bensales, your lack of understanding of how schools actually work is to be expected, you clearly havent worked in one but your dismissive attitude is typical of many people I meet. Is it just possible you dont know everything?
The implications seems to be that when lockdown is eased, the old will be told to continue to isolate, along with those with the worse co-morbidities (e.g. BMI of more than 30). I’m assuming the prevalence of obese teachers is similar to the population as a whole (which is 31% with 63% being overweight) + lots of them are old. As far as I can see, losing more than a third of the workforce is going to be a non-starter in terms of going back – unless the government decides to chuck teachers on the same bonfire they’re currently chucking NHS staff.
Yeah, and I bet Bensales wont clap for us! 😀😀😀😀😀
I would also add that given at any point in time about 30% of teachers have caught a cough its going to be tough on staffing and coronavirus testing to keep schools open.
I will add this to what AA said. Asuming the staff are not SLT, there will be faculty/ department meetings and training timetabled in at 3.30 on different days, on the other days teachers will be marking/ preparing resources/ making calls to parents/ running detentions etc... When do you think this is done? Let me guess during lesson time.
Yeah, and I bet Bensales wont clap for us! 😀😀😀😀😀
There won't be any PPE either. Not that it's particularly practical with children anyway - just to put it in perspective.... my wife teaches reception, they have a specific little shower room for removing shit from children - normally several as they tend to spread it around.
About a third of our students are bussed in to College on coaches, operated by several different private companies, across a 'catchment area' the size of Northern Ireland. Before we can reopen, we need to ascertain which companies are still trading...
Our catering is done by an outside company. They will have furloughed their staff, and may also have gone bust.
Our building is a hodgepodge of parts ranging in age from Victorian to modern, and it's been sealed shut and empty for 6 weeks now. At a minimum, the water system will need flushing through.
We're a 2000 student sixth form College - even if we only have Y12 in the building we're still at more than half our normal capacity as we'd have around 1100 students in (and that's 50% more students than we'd have had in the same building in the 90s). They're definitely old enough to catch and spread the disease - if workplaces are required to have people spaced out, we will be too.
Hilariously we're meant to be increasing our yr7 intake by 2 classes in September.
Unfortunately the building work has pretty much stopped on the 2 new blocks, so **** knows where they'll all go.
Sod social distancing, it's going to be more like the black hole of Calcutta - we were already about +10/15 over in each year group this year.
And the interviews for new/replacement staff that are to take place this term haven't happened (obviously!) so we'll be at least 4 teaching staff down.
I am doing the odd day at the hub in the town where I teach, we could have anything up to 300 kids with all the primary and secondary key workers/vulnerable children. Highest is 40, lowest 2: that suggests to me that parents will make the decision when the school's go back.
That’s just bollox.
You can see from the thread that those who can’t be arsed with lockdown any more are crying out for a return to free childcare. The best thing that can happen before getting that first can of Stella cracked is getting the kids out the way.
Sorry, no, it's you that's talking bollocks. One of our friends is a social worker, she wouldn't be visiting judges at 10 o'clock at night for warrants if these people weren't hiding their abuse behind closed doors under the pretence of social distancing. These people are far beyond the quiet can of Stella gang (who don't include anyone on here from what I've read).
that suggests to me that parents will make the decision when the school’s go back.
To a degree, which is why when the scoop reopen the government/LEA will have to be very strong in dealing with non-attendance.
My wife is a SENCo in a large secondary school.
They are working on the assumption that there will be a phased return after half-term with Yrs 6, 10 and 12 back in initially.
Other years who are not either exam groups or transitioning to secondary are unlikely to go back until September.
Her team have been in regular contact with the 200+ kids on the SEN/at-risk register - some horror stories coming out of this - anxiety through the roof, kids having a nightmare with abusive parents, etc.
You need to remember that for some kids - school is the only safe/sensible place in their lives, it is the only place where people care, and sometimes the only place where they get proper food.. and this was very suddenly taken away 6 weeks ago.
There will be a mental health crisis in teenage kids at the end of lock-down.
My kids are 9+12, they have both been doing some work - probably not as much as they should but with both parents working full time it is not a priority.
So many issue to consider regarding re-opening schools - social distancing at drop-off/pick-up, getting the supply chain that supports schools back up and running, etc.
I would suggest they need 2-3 weeks notice minimum and a clear strategy to stand any chance of it not being a disaster.
My wife is a SENCo in a large secondary school.
Good luck to her, as a lowly classroom teacher I am somewhat insulated to the horrors of kids home lives. Her job must be hell right now.
Why does the meeting need to be in teaching hours due to the roles involved? What’s special about the roles? What are they discussing? Can’t they schedule it over lunch time? Or during morning break? Or god forbid, after 3:30pm?
Again, echoing comments above, this understandably reflects a lack of understanding.
Staff are on duty, some before school (from 0750), and at break and lunch. Particularly in small secondary schools where the same number of duties need to be covered with fewer staff.
After school all staff (in our school) are in meetings on Mondays, always until 1600, but sometimes until 1700. As mentioned above a lot of pastoral staff and SLT are in meetings with parents after school or in department meetings etc. on at least 2 or 3 more days a week. Most teaching staff also run 1 or 2 sessions per week 'after school' for students.
Scheduling meetings, never mind a full timetable, in itself can therefore be problematic. Despite what some people think most school staff work bloody hard to provide the best they can for the young people in our care.
It is very early days but my Danish colleagues tell me that the return to school for the primary kids is going as well as they hoped. They just seem a bit complacent now but they have handled this so much better than us so far.
So today my other half social worker has taken a 17 year old to supported living accommodation to get her away from parents with addiction/violence issues, and moved a mum and 3 kids to a domestic violence refuge.
That's 4 people and most of their belongings in our car today, with no PPE beyond sanitiser.
FM(her)L
My wife is a SENCo in a large secondary school.
Good luck to her, as a lowly classroom teacher I am somewhat insulated to the horrors of kids home lives. Her job must be hell right now.
Thanks - she is finding it pretty draining at the moment, especially with those who shes spent a lot of time working through issues to get them into school regularly and engaging with it once they're through the door.
She reckons some of them might never come back.
It is very early days but my Danish colleagues tell me that the return to school for the primary kids is going as well as they hoped
Tell me, how many cases and deaths have Denmark had? After you have done that, explain to me what relevance those schools re opening has for the UK situation.
the latest study (a big one with 17k participants) shows that the highest co-morbidities are age and weight.
...plus smoking and gender. 70pc are male, and of those 70pc males 60pc are smokers:
It is very early days but my Danish colleagues tell me that the return to school for the primary kids is going as well as they hoped. They just seem a bit complacent now but they have handled this so much better than us so far.
R number rose from 0.6 to 0.9 in a week after Denmark reopened primary schools
https://www.ft.com/content/fdf893d5-40a0-4645-87fb-471b0f5e7ad0
anagallis_arvensis
MemberTell me, how many cases and deaths have Denmark had? After you have done that, explain to me what relevance those schools re opening has for the UK situation
I wasn't drawing relevance to the UK. I was updating a previous post I made where I stated how few deaths Denmark had had and how that was due to locking down much earlier on the curve than our political muppets. They have as a consequence had a much shorter lockdown.
The relevance to the UK is when we can get down to similar infection levels pro rata then we can look to bring schools back. However even when we are at those enviable levels we will clearly need to provide education in a vastly different way to how we did it six weeks ago.
From the Guardian
Denmark says partial reopening has not accelerated virus spread
More news from Denmark, where authorities say the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since it became the first country outside of Asia to ease lockdown measures a fortnight ago.
Day care centres and schools began reopening in the Nordic country two weeks ago, followed by hairdressers and other small businesses on 20 April. The move came after the number of infections and deaths slowed. “There are no signs that the Covid-19 epidemic is accelerating,” the State Serum Institute, which is responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, said.
The relevance to the UK is when we can get down to similar infection levels pro rata then we can look to bring schools back
So when we get to about 300 deaths a month? **** me even I'll be bored at home by then!!
I cannot work out what outcome and solution you are wanting or expecting
Denmark says partial reopening has not accelerated virus spread
More news from Denmark, where authorities say the spread of Covid-19 has not accelerated since it became the first country outside of Asia to ease lockdown measures a fortnight ago.
Day care centres and schools began reopening in the Nordic country two weeks ago, followed by hairdressers and other small businesses on 20 April. The move came after the number of infections and deaths slowed. “There are no signs that the Covid-19 epidemic is accelerating,” the State Serum Institute, which is responsible for preparedness against infectious diseases, said.
...and in Germany, in spite of one shakey day, the R number has actually dropped since lockdown was relaxed.
I cannot work out what outcome and solution you are wanting or expecting
I'd like us to be like Denmark or Germany with a government that seems to have a clue but that is clearly too late, I'm not sure what we can learn about relaxing lock down from countries that have been on a vastly different path than us.
We'll just have to roll on lockdown indefinitely till we get a vaccine. Two, three, ten years of it.
Irish schools not reopening until September. In a country with a relatively low population density that's run by a doctor...
September just seems to be the sensible option really. Anything before that is just going to be organised structured childcare.
I have to admit that we (my family)are in a very privileged position where we can work from home and have the flexibility to look after the boy as well, which a lot of people cannot do I think some return would be worth it for those who actually need the assistance. I do think that it should be optional but I fear it will increase infections unless we wait until the infection rate is very low
Agreed, but within education (I'm a teacher and Head of Year) all the chatter is about being ready for after half term in England. Personally I think its too soon and the logistics of even half making it work safely are a headache inducing nightmare.
Think many schools struggle even with good intentions. Eldest goes to a newly built school. It’s a struggle to access hand washing facilities more than a few times a day. Let alone between every class. Let alone keep a distance from others. Not sure what the answer is but given what myself and my partner do I’ll be pretty reluctant to see my kids go back to school until there’s a proper grip on the whole situation.
Scottish schools have 7or so weeks until summer. Everyone in my dept has done a stint at the hub and will continue to until the Hubs close.
We were due to change timetable end of may.
If we are to stand any chance of a sensible worthwhile return before summer we'd need to know now dates timings structure etc. To be honest I'm not sure that's high on the priority list of central government.
I dont think Scotland will go back. English schools might after next half term. I would like to get back before to look after the lids that need it but I'd be stressed to **** about my son going back and any of us getting ill. Not sure what I'd do if a staged return meant me and mrs working are working but my son isnt back in, also not sure how we could do it at all if after school club isnt on.
So it seems like 1st Jun is set to be announced as the return date.
Not sure I want monkey jnr returning until we have proper measures in place, even though I'm not entirely sure what those need to be. Hoping it's not an enforced return.
Eldest is Year 12 - they've been told that whenever/however they go back there will be a load of assessments and testing that they have missed so far.
He cynically thinks this is in case there are still no exams in summer 2021
Not sure I want monkey jnr returning until we have proper measures in place, even though I’m not entirely sure what those need to be
No measure can be in place that will work, the only way kids can go back and keep the country safe is when infection rates drop drastically imo.
I'm hoping it isn't mandatory too, the boy is in reception and the potential risk from him going is way bigger than the benefits in my mind.
If he were older and actually learning based on more formal lessons I would probably be thinking a little differently though
1st June for primary sounds like a reasonable plan to me. Though I wonder if it might also have a regional element to it too - those hotspot areas with a higher R number don't return.
We were working on a 75% reduction in all non distanced social interaction, maybe there is now a new figure we can go to. Primary kids least able to make progress at home and their education is the most burden on the parents. More parents able to get back to work even if it means being more efficiently working from home. A good number of secondary students could be left home alone if needed.
I just hope when they go back its to as close to normal an experience as possible and without attempting to social distance them within the school. As someone said weeks ago - we might have put a man on the moon but no one has ever been able to get a crowd of 8yr olds to not play together.
I think people need to realise absolute social distancing of everybody all the time is a pipe dream. We haven't had it from day one in the UK. Shops are trying their best but many customers are just clueless (and staff aren't consistently practicing it amongst themselves or with customers from what I've seen). Cant imagine many factories are rigorously enforcing it either. As lockdown is eased it will get worse. At best we can hope that major risk events like football matches don't restart for a long time and bars, restaurants and cinemas stay closed. Social interaction will be reduced but it'll be far from complete.
The aim all the way along has been to limit transmission rates, not to stop infections. We're all going to be potentially exposed, that will be the new normal. The only way to avoid it will be personal isolation but for many without underlying issues that will be hard to justify and for those that can justify it on risk grounds it's going to be mentally tough and practically difficult.
For most of us we risk death everyday when we get in a car or for us more so on a bike. Doesn't stop us doing it and it's probably as risky for most of us as Covid-19 is for the under 65s.
The Telegraph headline/story looks to me like the usual Cummings 'leak something just to test out public opinion before we actually make a decision' play.
Wasn't going to sign up to the Torygraph so haven't read the full article. What does it say about secondaries?
1st June for primary sounds like a reasonable plan to me. Though I wonder if it might also have a regional element to it too – those hotspot areas with a higher R number don’t return
Whilst on paper it looks good, we dont actually know what infection rates will be like then. Surely the best way would be to put a plan out to schools and tell them to be able to implement it with 2 weeks notice, obviously it would need a longer initial run in I would think. Then check the data and initiate when ready rather than set an arbitary date. Note schools have not yet been told how to implement.
On the second point about different areas doing things differently, this wont happen, that would require planning and thought from gov.
For most of us we risk death everyday when we get in a car or for us more so on a bike. Doesn’t stop us doing it and it’s probably as risky for most of us as Covid-19 is for the under 65s.
I suspect that the stats won't back this up, and it ignores transmission risks, but at some point we are all going to have pull up our big boy/girl pants and get on with a modified lifestyle factoring in just one more thing that can kill us.
Whilst on paper it looks good, we dont actually know what infection rates will be like then. Surely the best way would be to put a plan out to schools and tell them to be able to implement it with 2 weeks notice, obviously it would need a longer initial run in I would think. Then check the data and initiate when ready rather than set an arbitary date. Note schools have not yet been told how to implement.
Agreed. I suspect that's where this is an oversimplification for the benefit of a headline. I suspect the reality is that there will be a missive to all schools with primary aged children (note - independent schools and some counties also have middle/prep schools covering years 5-8 so they might find only certain year group to return) to be ready for a possible return from the 1st June on. That has been translated to schools will return on 1st June. Which is quite different.
On the second point about different areas doing things differently, this wont happen, that would require planning and thought from gov.
Sad but I suspect true.
at some point we are all going to have pull up our big boy/girl pants and get on with a modified lifestyle factoring in just one more thing that can kill us.
This. I suspect Covid will be around for a long time to come, but the current state of lockdown can’t continue indefinitely.
At some point we have to return to work, to school and to the pub, and as I’ve said before, that time will be too late for some and too early for others.
June sounds about right for schools as if it doesn’t work you’ve only got 6 weeks until the summer holidays.
And I also say again, when they return it has to be compulsory and it has to be enforced, you can’t have people picking and choosing which kids go and which don’t.
For those saying not to go back until September; what exactly do you think will be different between now, June or September?
We will likely still not have a released vaccine that has been given to the majority of the population; the schools won't have doubled their available space to allow for 2m separation; there won't be twice as many teachers to allow for existing classrooms to have half the number of pupils in them.
So, if you are not willing to send the kids back until the above can be addressed when do you suggest they go back? If we wait until there is a vaccine and the schools can fully enforce the 2m separation then it could be years which is not acceptable to anyone but the unhinged, those who do not have to work or those who don't give a monkeys about their children's education.
Trouble is, if you make it fully enforced with no exceptions that will put a number of high risk people in a bad situation.
My view isn't from a high risk place, but I simply don't see the benefit against the risk.
but those kids with parents undergoing chemo or other treatments (my cousin has lupus and her husband is a severe asthmatic) this could be incredibly dangerous for them.
Infection rates are dropping and we can't predict yet, but if they make it mandatory then there are going to be a lot of angry people, just look at the current survey rates <20% think schools should go back soon. Hardly a recipe for compliance.
1st June for primary sounds like a reasonable plan to me.
Thats the problem though isn't it; the decisions are being based, not on science or at least models scrutinised by people who have experience in this sort of thing - but on the gut feel of the population for what feels right.
Though I wonder if it might also have a regional element to it too – those hotspot areas with a higher R number don’t return.
I suspect it is almost inevitable that there will be some indirect effect, not every school could be ready to return on the same day, some councils will be more prepared than others, some schools will be more cramped than others etc.
Primary kids least able to make progress at home and their education is the most burden on the parents.
I'm not totally convinced by this. If I has child doing A-level history, or GCSE German - then I've no ability to help them, and I think we might be overestimating the motivation of the "average" 15 year old, or the digital communication skills of some teachers to be able to support them. We are also assuming that all kids have good access to the internet (a suitable device - for themselves, reasonable broadband possibly with multiple people trying to share it). And thats without thinking about practical subjects.
A good number of secondary students could be left home alone if needed.
Indeed although I worry about the mental health of teenagers left alone for hours on end with no human interaction day after day for weeks. And sadly I'm sure some will come to physical harm if left alone.
I just hope when they go back its to as close to normal an experience as possible and without attempting to social distance them within the school.
Would you rather go back in 2021 or 2020 with social distancing?
As someone said weeks ago – we might have put a man on the moon but no one has ever been able to get a crowd of 8yr olds to not play together.
Has anyone actually tried? The aim isn't that they don't play - its that they don't get physically close to each other. If you'd asked me if the Great British Public would comply with a lockdown I'd have said no - but most seem to. We just need to brainwash the children the same way...
Trouble is, if you make it fully enforced with no exceptions that will put a number of high risk people in a bad situation.
Im not against exceptions, but they have to be clearly outlined and easy qualified, it can’t be just because Mom and Dad don’t want them to go. Sadly, as we know, the population can’t be trusted to make good decisions so any thoughts of “use common sense” won’t work, it has to be clear guidance and there has to be a consequence if you don’t follow it.
At some point we have to return to work, to school and to the pub
I would suggest this point is when our death rate has dropped to something like Germany or Denmark, not just an arbitrary point 1 month from now.
Graham's point is a sound one. If the child is returning to a household with a parent/guardian who is at high risk there is a problem. Similarly teachers who are at high risk won't be able to return. But......I'm not convinced the parent should be free to make that decision - too many parents suffering from anxiety who nause up their kids education already with made up issues. Not saying it is their fault, they are ill, but it is all too common. And that's before with get to the negligent and the abusers. It has to be done with GP approval. To work like a family fit note if you will. That way the genuine people with concern get the decision they need to be safe but the other get a firm steer to do the right thing.
Those not able to return whilst the others do will without question suffer a long term consequence. Remote teaching when the teacher is flat out with those in school will be less good again than the current offering. Hard family choices will have to be made where possible to make the least worst option. Granddad moved to live with another relative or parents living apart so the one with the medical condition is not in contact with the child.
Lunge i agree, i guess my concern is also i don't trust the general population to not send kids into school even if someone like a parent or carer actually is ill from covid. You can almost imagine the thinking, they feel like crap so to get an easier life they send the kids to school and the infection spreads. I'm afraid I am just cynical like that
I suspect that the stats won’t back this up, and it ignores transmission risks, but at some point we are all going to have pull up our big boy/girl pants and get on with a modified lifestyle factoring in just one more thing that can kill us.
Probably true but it's not order of magnitude different, 1800 deaths and 25000 serious casualties on the roads in 2018 according to Brake, less than 2000 deaths in the under 65s so far (England and Wales). I know exactly apples with apples. I'm assuming the death toll continues to go down and the relaxing of lock down doesn't result in a big second wave.
The second bit was really what I was getting at, you just put it a lot more succinctly.
it has to be compulsory and it has to be enforced
Absolutely or we'll end up with another vaccination type debacle where some kids are disadvantaged because their parents are risk adverse.
what exactly do you think will be different between now, June or September?
Another good point, I think most kids would benefit from a few weeks back in school otherwise they will have been away for 5 months. Will make restarting in September difficult.
current survey rates <20% think schools should go back soon.
Source? I think that figure, assuming it's right will change very rapidly if lock down is eased and people have to go back to work. If you're in a vulnerable household there could be exemptions but the flip side is why keep all kids at home.
AA, I think you've made two important points, first schools should be getting more of a heads up on what is likely to be expected so they can plan with some sort of deadline to work to. However your second point that the date should not be arbitrary is also fair, June the 1st does feel right but it's got to be caveated that it could be delayed if the improvement targets in the stats aren't met. Trouble this government is particularly bad at anything resembling concrete guidance.
I’m not totally convinced by this. If I has child doing A-level history, or GCSE German – then I’ve no ability to help them, and I think we might be overestimating the motivation of the “average” 15 year old, or the digital communication skills of some teachers to be able to support them. We are also assuming that all kids have good access to the internet (a suitable device – for themselves, reasonable broadband possibly with multiple people trying to share it). And thats without thinking about practical subjects.
Poly - I am a teacher of a subject with a practical element, teaching at A level - A level Product Design. I have rapidly worked out how to do this and it is possible to make some pretty impressive progress. I expect nothing of the parent in terms of knowledge of the subject. The other part of my role is the pastoral lead for 100 sixth form students. I hear the issues parents are having daily. Yes - the difficult aspects are there - the teacher having good skills and the facilities to do the job, the kids likewise and finally everyone having the motivation to make the best of it. But - I would far rather be doing what I am doing remotely than be trying to support 5/6yrs old and their parents taking the first steps in the 3Rs.
I would suggest this point is when our death rate has dropped to something like Germany or Denmark, not just an arbitrary point 1 month from now.
Isn’t that just another arbitrary point though? It’s not like at that stage infection is zero, it’s just lower than us.
It isn’t going to be 100% perfect whenever they go back. I do think we have to not just consider Covid, but also the wider damage being done by kids not being at school. It’s a balancing act, yes we need to reduce infection, but we also have to educate our kids and give a hot meal and a safe place to those that need it most.
Fearful Britons remain strongly opposed to lifting coronavirus lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/fearful-britons-oppose-lifting-lockdown-schools-pubs-restaurants-opinium-poll?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
There you go on the source for resistance to reopening schools, I don't know how or when it will change, but looking at the numbers a huge amount of the population is not confident about even taking steps to returning to normal
That survey is based on what people think we should do today, not what we should be considering in a month. 10 weeks into lock down and many people will be more willing for normality, lock down is already crumbling, B & Q was a good example of that yesterday, loads of old people shopping for garden plants.
For those saying not to go back until September; what exactly do you think will be different between now, June or September?
OK let assume that we have R<1 so the total number of infectious people in society is falling. Lets say it halves every two weeks, and we have 1M people who are infectious today. We go back in 4 weeks and we have 250K infectious people. You go back at the start of Sept and its more like 4 people (in the whole country)! Of course we don't know (a) the total number today (b) accurately the 1/2 life (c) what impact other things we might do will have on R / 1/2 life etc. There's probably a point in between when you can be confident about test and trace etc working.
Here's a radical suggestion. Why not stop teaching at the end of June (or even sooner) and go back in early August - like Scotland normally does? Obviously that would need some clear messaging around summer travel as otherwise those still expecting to fly to Majorca in August will be irate. I dare say that there would be some unhappy teachers in that situation too - but there will be unhappy teachers no matter what.
I dont think Scotland will go back
I think you are right, it doesn't really make sense for the last 4 weeks especially when they are usually the least productive weeks of the year! However there's another more subtle political angle. Scot Gov (of any flavour) will not want to risk being the part of the UK that took a risk with its population, when there is an easily measurable "control group" across the border; and if there is an opportunity to show that "we" took a safer option that resonates well in the part of the UK that trusts Boris, Gove and the like the least.
For those saying not to go back until September; what exactly do you think will be different between now, June or September
The infection rate will hopefully have dropped meaning the chances of infection and spread are vastly reduced and so thousands wont die.
I would suggest this point is when our death rate has dropped to something like Germany or Denmark, not just an arbitrary point 1 month from now.
Isn’t that just another arbitrary point though?
It was an arbitrary point chosen by me as an illustration, hopefully the actual point would be chosen by people who have modelled whats going on in other countries. It just served to highlight that we are actually better served by looking at what Spain and Italy are doing as they are closer to us.
The infection rate will hopefully have dropped meaning the chances of infection and spread are vastly reduced and so thousands wont die.
But we don't know what the infection rate is. And we won't know until they test every person in the country. This could already have swept through the majority of the population or it might only have hit a very small percentage. We just don't know and likely will never know exactly how many people have had this. Similarly we don't know about the R<1 assumption Poly makes above and unless we test the entire population that is just speculation and testing everyone is realistically just not going to happen.
The point is we cannot be certain of the safety of the population until a vaccine is produced, tested and issued (and even then there will be some for which it is not effective) so do we have to wait for that because I doubt it will be ready by September.
If, as people are saying, this virus is so infectious that just breathing at someone will spread it and when lockdown ends there will be a resurgence of infections then again, what is the difference betweennow, June and waiting until September to get school back as all we are doing is pushing back the date at which that happens.
For anyone interested:
https://neu.org.uk/press-releases/5-tests-government-before-schools-can-re-open
Please sign the petition at the bottom.
Subject: Take Action: Open schools when it is safe
Dear friend,
I just signed the National Education Union petition: Open schools when it is safe.
To The Prime Minister: We, the undersigned, oppose any re-opening of schools before it is safe to do so. As a matter of urgency and certainly well before any proposal to re-open schools is published, please can you share with teachers and parents: Your modelling of the increased number of cases and mortalities amongst children, their parents, carers and extended families, and their teachers and support staff as a result of the re-opening of schools. Whether such modelling is based on some notion that social distancing could be implemented in schools (we ask this because many teachers think this would be a foolhardy assumption)? Would your modelling be based on concrete plans to have regular testing of children and staff, availability of appropriate PPE and enhanced levels of cleaning - with all of which we are currently experiencing severe difficulties? Whether your modelling would include plans for children and staff in vulnerable health categories, or living with people in vulnerable health categories not to be in school or college? Your latest evidence on which people are most vulnerable to permanent consequences or death from the virus, for example the evidence of the impact on those who live in crowded accommodation, those with different comorbidities, those from different ethnic groups and of different ages and both sexes. Are you developing plans for extensive testing, contact tracing and quarantine in society as a whole? Teachers see that countries successfully implementing such strategies have many fewer cases and many many fewer mortalities than we do in the UK. Would you intend these plans be in place well before schools are re-opened, which seems essential to us? If you are not developing such plans what is your overall approach and is it dependent on an assumption that those who have had the virus are then immune?
Can you join me and sign too? Click here: https://actionnetwork.org/forms/open-schools-when-it-is-safe?source=email&
But we don’t know what the infection rate is.
No but we do know the death rate and if you think its currently acceptable thats fine we can agree to differ.
This could already have swept through the majority of the population or it might only have hit a very small percentage
Its easy to say it hasnt given the rate of testing and positive test results especially when we consider that only those with symptoms are being tested.
Similarly we don’t know about the R<
But we can assume a lot by looking at hospital admission rates and extrapolating backwards.
The point is we cannot be certain of the safety of the population
We cannot be certain of anything in life.
what is the difference betweennow, June and waiting until September
The number of infected people will have reduced and so the chances of being able to track and trace have increased to control the levels of disease hospital admissions and deaths.