[Closed] Sending kids back to school

Kids shouldn't be allowed to lease Audis.

That's irresponsible parenting right there.

LOL... I thought Audi's WERE cars for kids. (Well, the ones who throw a strop when they dont get what they want, anyway!)

It's an example of the country really not being in this together though.

Sure there are middle class parents homeschooling their kids and posting meme's with bottles of prosecco and gin on Facebook about how the world is doomed because the next generation is being schooled by alcoholics.

Meanwhile the other half are probably fending for themselves, getting zero schooling and by September will probably have actually gone backwards having forgotten anything they learnt last year and be feral.

Anyone willing to chance sending their kids to school just so they can keep up the repayments on the Audi?

Or put another way, if you watch newsnight, have a credit rating and drive an Audi it's probably not your kids life chances taking a beating as a result of this.

That doesn't mean they should open schools, but it does mean it's a lot more complicated, and gets more complicated the longer it goes on.

There's a good chance the unions would have something to say about it if the Cons decide to just blanket reopen schools. Kids may not get ill and transmit the virus much, but what about all the adults?

Having been in school on and off for the last 4 weeks social distancing is impossible, even with only 12ish kids (out of the whole school!) they don't care/listen, so why would it work if you suddenly had 80/90% of them back in?!

I can see them partially reopening schools for transition years and exam classes, i.e. Yr6, Yr10 and Yr12, but any more at the moment would be madness.
With smaller numbers in we could split classes in 2 or 3 and minimise contact to a certain extent - designated places they can and can't go in school, designated computers to work on, zero contact in practical lessons (difficult this one!), etc.
I can see some staff refusing to come in though - we don't have any PPE to speak of, and as I said the kids don't really understand or care about the practicalities of social distancing.

My daughter is a teacher in London and the difference in requirements for teaching remotely across different schools her friends work in is vast. Some kids are getting a full timetable of 5 lessons a day and others are doing 2 lessons a day, the feedback from some of her pupils using the online teaching has been patchy to say the least.

She believes that if there is any focus on kids going back it should be for those in year 10 doing GCSE's.

The worry for most teachers of course is what precautions are in place for teaching staff.

Would agree with OP a lot of the talk about sending them back to school comes from the same places screaming reopen the workplaces EDIT meant workhouses.

What TINAS said. The vulnerable kids getting abused or simply those not getting their free school meal. Social distancing can be done. It wont be easy and may include attending in shifts, but some proper sensible problem solving needs to be done to get kids back into school. Personal experience of online learning provision for my 2 has been generally poor. Teachers struggling with the tech and then copy and pasting materials rather than spending 10 mins more to but a bit of thought into the work being set. Teachers are an easy target of course, but many just can't seem to help themselves.

The kids don’t really understand or care about the practicalities of social distancing.
Wow - maybe not all kids think the same?

You'd need about ten times the number of school buses (and a lot of gaffer tape) to maintain social distancing getting to and from schools too.

How about using local buildings that are not currently being occupied? Closed offices, church halls, council sports facilities etc.
Teachers could be dispersed to these lower density facilties? Obvs harder for practical classes, but priorities and all that.

How about using local buildings that are not currently being occupied? Closed offices, church halls, council sports facilities, church halls etc.
Teachers could be dispersed to these lower density facilties? Obvs harder for practical classes, but priorities and all that.

Assuming an average high school has ~100 classrooms and teachers. You either need to find thousands of large empty rooms in even a small city with ~10 schools? Or multiple more thousands of extra teachers and multiple more thousands of classroom sized rooms.

I can see a point coming (very soon) where Gove says “schools are fine, get them all back.”

Its quite clear from all the murmuring that schools won't ALL be going back overnight. Social distancing will be required and most schools do not have the physical space to do that with all pupils at the same time. Some year groups may go back before others. Some may split AM and PM. In some rural areas where kids are bussed in there may be other problems.

The earliest date being touted is 1st June for a PHASED return. If you are in Scotland (which finish at end of June) there's probably not too much point on some degree of increased risk for what is traditionally the least productive month of the year. I suspect scotland will return in August, with some sort of social distancing still required there. That will likely create some pressure on England to show similar caution - there could however be an argument for opening up some schools in some parts to test the impact - its always been the case that lockdown could come and go.

Interestingly Switzerland have said today children <10 don't seem to spread it (I've not had a chance to read more about it). But again that could fit with a phased return, for those who are most demanding on home learning.

I wonder how many parents would choose to send their kids to school without a cast-iron guarantee that the science said it was safe to go back.

There will never be (and indeed never was) a cast iron guarantee that going to school would not result in an infection which might be life threatening. Meningitis, measles, flu, and novel-viruses all have the potential to kill and even with vaccination are not 100% certain to avoid them. IF the new infection rates are in the double digits across the UK, if the deaths are in single digits, and if your child has no underlying health condition I'm not sure why they would be automatically safer at home (someone is still going shopping, exercising, etc). You also need to think about the entire life of your child - its no use protecting them from a 1:1,000,000 risk today if it means they are certainly going to be disadvantaged for the rest of their life - we know that the least fortunate can have life long impact on health. And I don't think its just exam results that are impacted by children not being able to socially interact face to face.

We could just ship the kids back to school and the teachers can stay at home and broadcast their lessons remotely to the classroom. What could possible go wrong! 🙂

Assuming an average high school has ~100 classrooms and teachers. You either need to find thousands of large empty rooms in even a small city with ~10 schools? Or multiple more thousands of extra teachers and multiple more thousands of classroom sized rooms.

Come on TINAS you are more creative than that. A combination of extra spaces, not necessarily standard classroom sized and some sort of shift patterns plus priority for some classes / groups would go a significant way.

Edit - add in concert halls, football stadiums, theatres, cinemas..... plenty of spaces available if we can use a bit of imagination.

Getting the economy going is in everyone’s interest, not just the Government. Getting the schools going is key if everyone is going to get back to work. Sure we need to be safe a second peak of infection will also be bad for the economy. We have to start somewhere at some point. It’s unlikely that everyone will be at the same stage in their mindset/timeline/risk assessment at the same time. In our area area the risk seems much lower than other areas for instance. My view, get back to school.

I have been speaking to some Danish people this week and primary kids have gone back to school there. It is the primary kids who need looking after so it frees people up to work i guess. The classes are generally split in to three to help with social distancing, many Copenhagen schools are not big enough to do this so places like Tivoli Gardens have opened the conference centres to operate as classrooms.

The Danes however locked down much earlier on the curve than us so they have only had 300 odd deaths so there may be less risk. As a consequence many think it was a waste of money to shut down because they see normal flu as a much bigger issue although the reality is their government saved thousands of lives compared to the UK shambles and also had a shorter lock down.

I would not be happy sending my 13 year old back to normal school any time soon.

All these years… claiming teachers aren’t part of the productive economy… and paying them according… but then… schools must go back to save the economy!

The modelling suggests that keeping them off school has very little influence on the spread and deaths for covid19, yet causes plenty of other problems.

It's just a few weeks off, IMO.

There are all sorts of complicated issues to work through, but the experts involved need to start planning how it might happen. Not doing so would be crazy. As other countries come out of lockdown ahead of us, we'll have to learn from their experience thus time.

Excellent point made about how an ongoing lockdown will widen divides - too many of the kids who should be in school now getting time, attention and meals are just not doing it.

I can see Yrs 6, 10 and 12 being the initial guinea pigs, they would be the priority. Ideally with some element of testing and social distancing in place.

But we are all going to have to make hard choices in all walks of life. There might never be a vaccine for this bastard virus. We are going to have to find a new way of working, educating and interacting, or we will end up in some dystopian agrarian dark age.

People are going to have to make a hard educated guess as to their safety in getting back to a more normal world. And I'm saying that as the husband of a front line child protection social worker who is having to go into people's houses every day, and transport kids to places of safety every day. With no PPE whatsoever apart from our own stock of hand sanitiser.

So while I get the whole "this is a terrible choice and risk" worry, some people are already cracking on and having to live with it. And so are their partners and their kids.

The Danes however locked down much earlier on the curve than us so they have only had 300 odd deaths so there may be less risk

Funniest post in ages, genuinely just spat my tea out! Well done.

Schools will have to go back at some point but to be clear even if my school only had 1/5 of the kids in each day social distancing will not happen and it would be even worse with primary kids. If I had just say 10 kids in my classroom I still cannot see how we could stay 2m apart.

As a more minor point I wonder how many schools are regretting those finger print whatsits to pay for food!!!

I think realistically with parents’ movements still restricted, no contact outside the family etc it’s a fairly small pool if kids are back.

The Danish return with social distancing is only possible at all with lots of teaching outside - fine in good weather and in schools with lots of outdoor space. Some may struggle and have to prioritise or split time.

My eldest is in reception and I can’t see a return before September being likely.

The modelling suggests that keeping them off school has very little influence on the spread and deaths for covid19

Could you show your working out on that?

I’ll probably listen to the science rather than gut-feel.

Teachers and unions are really anti-reopening at the moment, one of the Education authorities (Ofsted perhaps?) are rather pro.

Schools are suggesting getting kids due to take exams next year in. I imagine The Gov will want junior school kids as brining them back will will have a far greater effect on the economy.

Teachers are using simple maths to justify their position (30 kids in a class, 4 people per family etc) but Scientists are claiming that despite largely spending all day climbing on each other and licking things having smaller kids back in school will only result in a small increase in cases and is a get a bit of normality back.

I think some people want to stay in lock down until the virus is eradicated, or a vaccine is found, but I don’t think it’s possible. SARS still doesn’t have a vaccine after 10 years and were too late for eradication.

Anyway, in short if the schools open I’ll send them. I don’t think it’s time for everyone to start making up their own rules. People who are ignoring the rules now could end up causing more deaths, equally I don’t want to see 30% unemployment or another decade or more of austerity because we let the media scare us into tanking the economy. Poverty kills.

@oldtennisshoes

The kids don’t really understand or care about the practicalities of social distancing.
Wow – maybe not all kids think the same?

Ok, from my relatively long experience as a teacher, kids tend not to think through consequences very well (all to do with how juvenile brains develop, plenty of research on it, look it up).
So whilst they may not do it on purpose, social distancing will not be forefront in their minds, especially when seeing friends they haven't seen in person for weeks if not months.

I'm not calling them 'bad' children for doing it, but most, if not all will find it difficult to accept the rules around social distancing when they are thrown back in with their peers.
Children at home with parents are very different beasts (and generally much more biddable) to when they are in large groups.

Some of the newly re-opened German schools have had to close already as there was a spike in cases.

Only with decent antibody testing and active testing could schools possibly go back.

I have 2 kids at home, one 3 and one 8. My wife and I have VERY busy research jobs which have not abated in the slightest (mine has actually gotten worse since the crisis as it's aviation) and we're now home schooling 2 kids of very different ages. We manage this by me getting up at 5 and working to 12:30 and then clocking off my Job to do teaching, cooking and cleaning from 12:30-19:30 while my wife works. I then do a little more work between 19:30 and 21:00 when required and my wife works until 22:00. We've been doing this since March 11th and I'm most definitely NOT keeping up with my job requirements.

How sustainable is this???

Scientists are claiming that despite largely spending all day climbing on each other and licking things having smaller kids back in school will only result in a small increase in cases

Teachers and unions are really anti-reopening at the moment

Care to join the dots?

one of the Education authorities (Ofsted perhaps?) are rather pro.

What the offsted lady said at the committee the other day was that schools should open as soon as possible, which is true, be not that now was the time, she gave no opinion on that, as usual the reporting has removed all context or nuance.

The 1st June as the earliest date was from the head teachers union I think and this was said to emphasize how long schools will need to plan how to reopen, again it was not about it being safe now it was about the gov not giving schools any idea of what they need to do planning wise as the gov does not seem to have a plan.

Some really interesting comments!

My concern is that somewhere a "cost benefit analysis" is being conducted and in a few days we will all be expected to "follow the rules" and send our kids back to school.

Somewhere in Whitehall, someone is determining how many increased deaths there will be and whether the British public have the stomach for it. I find that a bit worrying.

Also, if social distancing is the "new normal" and the price we pay for staying safe, then how on earth is that meant to work in schools?

How sustainable is this???

Not very, and your situation shows why some teachers are doing better at setting work than others which a poster above was moaning about. Some teachers are parents to, strange as may seem teaches have lives and are juggling other things like childcare too. My colleges without kids seem mostly bored and are filling time, those with kids are doing as you do. I'm up at 5.30 most days to get my work done, then swapping with my other half who does her work in the afternoon. Its tuff, sooner schools go back the better but it has to be thought through and this gov does not inspire confidence.

Somewhere in Whitehall, someone is determining how many increased deaths there will be and whether the British public have the stomach for it. I find that a bit worrying.

It'd be worrying if they weren't doing that.
There was a headline figure of 18,000 additional cancer deaths this year due to suspension of many cancer services.
Recession will result in many thousands of deaths.
Like it or not, someone needs to be doing the cost benefit analysis on this.

Genuine question, does anyone known why it would take a month or more to plan to reopen a school. I assume the buildings will be maintained in the interim?

Genuine question, does anyone known why it would take a month or more to plan to reopen a school. I assume the buildings will be maintained in the interim?

Assuming changes to maintain social distancing, etc...
Timetabling, rooming, staffing, resources, changes to lesson plans and schemes of work, budgeting for all the above changes.

Thanks guys. Thanks for all your comments. I'm gonna step away now. Apologies if I have just lit the blue touch-paper but I really got to step away.

Its all a bit too real when you are trying to keep your own family safe, home school your own child and look after the families of vulnerable students AND trying to teach online at the same time.

For what is worth....I think we are going back to school VERY soon and I don't think any of us are prepared for what could happen next.

A friend recently reminded me that the kids are "not stuck at home.... they are SAFE at home."
I just wish that could be true for everyone and that the "cost benefit" decisions weren't being made by people like Cummings and Gove.

A friend recently reminded me that the kids are “not stuck at home…. they are SAFE at home.”
I just wish that could be true for everyone and that the “cost benefit” decisions weren’t being made by people like Cummings and Gove.

+1

Of course, it could also be the case that Herd Immunity is the plan. Putting kids back into school for 6 weeks or so could increase the infection rate enough to get the numbers up without overwhelming the NHS and then we have a 6 week school holiday, when can lockdown again to recover for a bit.

Somewhere in Whitehall, someone is determining how many increased deaths there will be and whether the British public have the stomach for it. I find that a bit worrying.

That is the realities of dealing with a pandemic in a consumer lead capitalist economy.

I know people have mentioned the dog whistle PCP Audi’s and all that, but the truth is the Middle Classes and above will be just fine, sure they’ll be worried like everyone else but generally their lifestyle will take a dip, they’ll miss a holiday, lose a couple of grand in property value they didn’t earn in the first place and yes maybe the PCP bubble will burst and the roads won’t be a sea of people with £30k salaries driving £40k cars anymore.

It’s the poor, the old, the sick and the disabled who’ll really suffer. The people barely making ends meet before Covid are the ones who’ll suffer most post Covid the longer it goes on. Furlough has done a great job of protecting jobs, but for others it’s keeping jobs going that are less and less likely to be there post Covid.

If by some miracle we had a vaccine ready in a weeks time and lock-down just ended and we all went back to work we might be in recession until Q4, there would be a chaotic, but quick recovery and the huge costs of stimulus might be limited not getting next years Tory tax cut, if we stay as we are now until the end of the year we’re looking at another 10 year Great Recession and all the painful austerity that goes with it.

Because infrastructure is there to support 30 kids per room and no social distancing? Plenty of workplaces, mine included, shut for a similar amount of time to work through how to run things in the new normal world.

I think some people want to stay in lock down until the virus is eradicated, or a vaccine is found, but I don’t think it’s possible. SARS still doesn’t have a vaccine after 10 years and were too late for eradication

Got to agree with this. The lockdown should be used to come up with new ways to live / conduct business / education / society, not just sit it out. We can't assume we can go back to "normal" for sometime but we can't keep on as we are. If the science says we can get some kids back to school in some way we should do it. Itt all about how.

Timetabling, rooming, staffing

This is a massive job, if kids return say year 10 and 12. The entire timetable will need to be re written otherwise all 250 kids in year 10 will be doing science on p1 monday, but we only have 9 science teachers and we dont want 30 per class and all 250 heading along the science corridor at 9am, so who does science then and what do the others do? When you've worked all that out in year 12 are in they should be doing A level bio p1, but the bio teachers are all teaching sci to year 10 but there other option is french and the french teacher is down to do french with some year 10 not doing sci.... it will need a totally new timetable which always takes weeks of work by a few people and is then handed out to teachers to look for errors and then redone over and over. Add to this we want to physically spread the classes out around the school and it gets even harder.

Of course, it could also be the case that Herd Immunity is the plan.

I personally don’t think it was ever not the plan, as above SARS has been raging around Asia for nearly 20 years. It’s also a Coronavirus that originated in Bats and there’s still not vaccine. I don’t think the scale of the outbreak is going to make a vaccine any quicker for Covid-19.

Eradication was never promised. We were told to stay at home to flatten to curve so we the NHS could cope with the virus and as it’s already reached every corner of the U.K. (and world) I don’t think there’s any escaping it.

it gets even harder

Or to quote a deputy head friend of mine:

****ing impossible

Plenty of workplaces, mine included, shut for a similar amount of time to work through how to run things in the new normal world.

Schools shut with two days notice and had to plan how to find out who were key worker kids and how to supervise them by monday, schools were then open all easter looking after kids, all the while having to set work online...schools closed to the majority of kids, but were still open, checking on vulnerable kids, sorting free school meals, supervising key worker kids and setting work online. I've managed ok but only because I gave up years ago on being a leader within the school. I wouldnt want to be a member of SLT for all the PPE in China.

From my understanding of the modelling, opening schools only has a low impact if proper social distancing can take place in the schools. Does that sound about right to folk?

If so then I expect that educational considerations will be subordinate to economical ones, as an improving economy is likely to save more lives. In that case primary school children will likely return first, using secondary school infrastructure/staff where possible.

Whatever does happen it will be a huge task.

From my understanding of the modelling, opening schools only has a low impact if proper social distancing can take place in the schools. Does that sound about right to folk?

I seem to recall a model months back that showed schools not affecting spread but it assumed social distancing. Thing is models just show you whatever you want depending on what you put in.

Have any teachers worked out how many kids they can get in their class room and how timetables would work if groups have to be split up even with a smaller percentage of students in school?

Edit- also teachers with children will need to be rotated so they are not in on days when their own children are not.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52470838

Dr Koch told a news conference this week that the original advice to keep distance between children and their grandparents was made when less was known about how the coronavirus was transmitted.

"Young children are not infected and do not transmit the virus," he said. "They just don't have the receptors to catch the disease."

Five-year-old child among latest UK coronavirus deaths

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/04/five-year-old-child-among-latest-uk-coronavirus-deaths

I wouldn’t be sending reception and year one kids back any time soon. I own one that is in year one and he and his friends are basically biological weapons. Brought home more bugs on a weekly basis over the last two years than I can keep up with. Good luck getting them to understand social distancing when they’re all together too. Fine one on one, but I’d imagine that it goes to shit when there’s a few of them.

Have any teachers worked out how many kids they can get in their class room and how timetables would work if groups have to be split up even with a smaller percentage of students in school?

There has been talk of splitting classes in two, so 14-15 kids per class. Two teachers needed then to take each half of the class - or you have them one after another.
In my workshop, with 7 workbenches, I'd be able to fit 14 pupils with 2 on either side of each bench. Though getting them in and out of the room will take a bit of shuffling. Probably no practical work, as that would mean movement around the room.
Maybe computer based work, and if so each pupil is assigned a workstation and can't use others.

Problems arise when (as is the case in my school) more than one subject class is on at the same time. This would necessitate whole scale timetable changes, which then has knock-on effects elsewhere.

The modelling suggests that keeping them off school has very little influence on the spread and deaths for covid19

Could you show your working out on that?

I don’t know why I chose that quote out of so many above, but I’d love to know the answer too! There are so many issues regarding restarting schools, that I truly cannot see what should be done. Until we have a fairly accurate idea how much Covid19 is in communities and the facility to test, track and isolate effectively, schools cannot imho be reopened safely.

There are a lot of comments above based upon, what I would consider a flakey interpretation of the science we’ve been hearing develop over recent weeks. Why anyone would bother saying “just teach a few classes in the local pubs, as they’re shut”, I do not know.

I only work part time, but I have been working hard to try and make this new arrangement work. Others I know (particularly those with young children) have been finding it much harder to juggle their work, with other commitments. I despair too of the quick Googling of any suitable resource that appears to tick a box - but I think this (to the extent that it is true, which may be relatively small) is in part due to: an urgency to get resources available, the vast workload, and to the huge changes and focus on matters other than actual teaching that have led in recent years to teachers having less and less time for quality preparation.

to;dr - listen to a_a his posts clearly show someone who has vast experience of what goes on in schools, and what is required to teach properly.

We are delivering the full normal timetable via teams. Private school so that is 0845-1730 Monday-Friday and Saturday mornings too. It blooming hard work reinventing the wheel overnight - I'm Suddenly a twin screen, webcam totting premiere pro ninja. Currently knocking out 23 hours of digital material a week whilst being pastoral lead to 100 students and their families. Kids are also getting a choice of 47 virtual activity clubs and two assemblies. From next week 'bridging' courses for yr11 into A level and yr13 into degree level begin. This weekend I'm self filming then editing a 20min virtual assembly for 600 kids and their families. As a fee paying school we (or the powers that be) are hugely concerned we will fold unless enough parents cough up for the term and those of us left not furloughed are all hands to the pump.

Got to confess I think I'm as busy as I've ever been in normal life, arguably busier. The time period I'm not looking forward to is trying to run a socially distanced school for a couple of year group that feels worth coming back for whilst giving a similar virtual experience to the one they are getting now for the year groups left at home. Not quite sure how that is going to be possible.

I have also no idea how a socially distanced half full school is meant to function. Classrooms are a tiny part of the problem. To my mind I'm not convinced it is worth even attempting it - just accept the year group you bring back and the the staff running the place are not socially distanced but only start opening when that can be considered ok from a science perspective and hospitals can handle the infection increase that will come with it.

We are delivering the full normal timetable via teams. Private school so that is 0845-1730 Monday-Friday and Saturday mornings too. It blooming hard work reinventing the wheel overnight – I’m Suddenly a twin screen, webcam totting premiere pro ninja.

And this is one of the major differences between private and state education.
We have going on for 35% of students with allegedly no access to a computer and/or internet at home (other than a phone, but that presents a whole other set of issues)

...plus parent IT literacy is really poor, and at this particular school students don't have a school email or access to office365. Makes it all quite tricky!

And this is one of the major differences between private and state education.
We have going on for 35% of students with allegedly no access to a computer and/or internet at home (other than a phone, but that presents a whole other set of issues)

Agreed - there is simply no way you could deliver what we are if the students were not privileged enough to have the ability to access it. This is going to stretch the social divide even further.

Ability AND appetite for it.

Parents who are paying for education are far more likely to ensure students engage in the work!

Problems arise when (as is the case in my school) more than one subject class is on at the same time. This would necessitate whole scale timetable changes, which then has knock-on effects elsewhere.

The problems would be huge. On top of this, several teachers have underlying health issues that I presume would mean they would not be safe to return. I have worked for long periods recently being a couple of members of the department down, the effects on teaching and added workload are huge.

Staggered days may be something of an idea, but I fear that the amount of productive teaching going on at these times will be sadly small.

Also, the 2m distance thing, has been talked about so often that people appear to think that there’s something magical about this distance. However, I struggle to believe that it applies to small, poorly ventilated rooms, in which people are spending their entire working day. The viral load in the room could be huge and who would know?

I am fairly confident that relatively few people value education more than I do. However, the distance learning will improve, hopefully to a point where it will be on a par to a partial return, if not better. And, it seems that children’s education is not the driving force to reopen schools, for those who seem to want it most urgently.

I supply teach early years in ‘inadequate’ schools. A socially distant classroom is hard to imagine, but so are these children’s home lives. It’s a tough circle to square.

As a parent of 2 kids that have been lifelong home educated (not home-schooled but that's perhaps a different argument), I've been watching this ongoing debate with interest.

It's becoming laid bare that school is as much about increasing GDP, by allowing two working parents, as it is about education.

Does it really take 11 years of compulsory education in school to obtain a maths GCSE? My son went from informal education to a GCSE in 4 months.

In the long term perhaps we'll take a good look at why it's suddenly necessary for kids to spend most of their formative years in an institution.

School, in my opinion, is all about micromanaging a child's learning experience when my experience is very much that learning is what children do naturally in the right environment. Perhaps in the future, we'll focus on establishing the right environment rather than the school process.

Of course, that'll mean the welfare of the population will take priority over the GDP so that'll never happen....

I think some people want to stay in lock down until the virus is eradicated, or a vaccine is found, but I don’t think it’s possible.

My understanding was that current "lockdown" measures were only ever intended to mitigate the pressure on services/infrastructure (such as NHS) in the short to medium term and that once we were past the Bow-wave of CV19 cases limited reopening of businesses and schools could start (not necessarily all at once though) under the assumption that there would be further cases.

Half the problem is that the various daily graphs are all starting to show a downwards trend, but no measure, number or percentage has ever been publicly stated for when current measures can be reduced or even what the projected sequence of events would be at that point.

The trouble being that people like "certainty" and easy to understand, hard & fast rules, in the absence of that though any downturn on a graph is taken as an early indication that we'll be back to business as usual inside a couple of weeks. It doesn't mean that at all though does it...

From my understanding of the modelling, opening schools only has a low impact if proper social distancing can take place in the schools. Does that sound about right to folk?

No idea, who actually said that?
Any modelling will obviously have to come with some assumptions about how such things are going to be done, and the national/regional models (if there are such things) will include some more assumptions about what proportion of schools become a focal point for a localised outbreak probably.
It's sort of inevitable that whenever you send kids back that will lead to at least some increase in localised CV19 outbreaks... It's almost funny, a week ago we were discussing Contact tracing apps, now people can't wait to reopen potential schools which to my mind are ready made contact focal points...

The truth might simply be that they've never modelled infection prevention, but looked more at staggering/controlling/managing infection spread. With a simpler goal of not overwhelming public services, and ideally allowing some economic activity to pick up again.
A resumption of schooling would logically be area by area, and might well be based on the knowledge that the return of kids to school carries an XX% chance of initiating a surge in CV19 cases amongst a given local community...
If you want to know when your kids are going back to school, maybe look at how your local NHS services are coping?

My own uninformed musings...

Agreed – there is simply no way you could deliver what we are if the students were not privileged enough to have the ability to access it. This is going to stretch the social divide even further.

Homework is well known to increase the attainment gap between rich and poor, this will be doing that with bells on!

It’s almost funny, a week ago we were discussing Contact tracing apps, now people can’t wait to reopen potential schools which to my mind are ready made contact focal points…

But if you can isolate the parents of those groups of children, the parents become the firebreak. All the kids have been at home for 5-6 weeks, so are free of the virus. Only a random element introduced to the mix, such as a parent who works in the NHS or on public transport or in an Amazon warehouse. Maintain the lockdown/work from home, but allow the schools to return. It should make little difference to the virus spread. Keep randomly testing the kids and as soon as more than one shows positive, close the school and send the kids home for 4 weeks to isolate with the parents.

All the kids have been at home for 5-6 weeks, so are free of the virus.

They’ve not, and they might not be! Kids have been socially distanced for 5+ weeks but not necessarily at home, they can exercise, some are going to schools/hubs, some are going to shops, they are mingling with parents and some are inevitably ignoring the rules. So the kids aren’t “sterile”, and neither are their teachers.

Only a random element introduced to the mix, such as a parent who works in the NHS or on public transport or in an Amazon warehouse.

or a supermarket, a police officer, prison officer, court official, social worker, refuse collector, manufacturing medical supplies, for phone or energy suppliers, delivery services etc. etc. there’s a massive number of pupils where at least one parent is going to be leaving the house regularly to keep the country running and so potentially exposing the child, and therefore all his classmates.

Given that we may never have a vaccine, what are folks alternative plans then?

How long do you think home schooling and parents unable to go to work can be sustained?

My max teaching load is 26 periods but I reckon to allow for some semblance of social distancing it would have to go to 44 periods of teaching. So half in half out and those out will need meaningful work. So each weeks normal teaching will take 2 weeks.

The question is what is meaningful. We have a high number 30+% in the most deprived 10% in Scotland. I have classes just now where 1/16 is engaging and of the parents 4/16 are signed up to notifications. I know one of these kids is the oldest of 8, he's 14, and mum has a habit and his dad is in the big hoose.

From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, 107 countries had implemented national school closures by March 18, 2020. It is unknown whether school measures are effective in coronavirus outbreaks (eg, due to severe acute respiratory syndrome [SARS], Middle East respiratory syndrome, or COVID-19). We undertook a systematic review by searching three electronic databases to identify what is known about the effectiveness of school closures and other school social distancing practices during coronavirus outbreaks. We included 16 of 616 identified articles. School closures were deployed rapidly across mainland China and Hong Kong for COVID-19. However, there are no data on the relative contribution of school closures to transmission control. Data from the SARS outbreak in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore suggest that school closures did not contribute to the control of the epidemic. Modelling studies of SARS produced conflicting results. Recent modelling studies of COVID-19 predict that school closures alone would prevent only 2–4% of deaths, much less than other social distancing interventions. Policy makers need to be aware of the equivocal evidence when considering school closures for COVID-19, and that combinations of social distancing measures should be considered. Other less disruptive social distancing interventions in schools require further consideration if restrictive social distancing policies are implemented for long periods.

There are so many issues with that Lancet piece, that imho it’s pretty worthless and should not be read out of context of the whole review, for fear of being very misleading (not that it is any area of expertise I have, but it raises a lot of questions about their assertions).

It’s becoming laid bare that school is as much about increasing GDP, by allowing two working parents, as it is about education.

Are you living in a bubble? Do you really think that all kids have parents capable of teaching them to GCSE level, and preparing them for life beyond school age, without professional assistance? This “right environment” you speak of, do all kids have access to that? And equipment? Books? Social contact? Actually, how sure are you that your kids do/did?

“Young children are not infected and do not transmit the virus,” he said. “They just don’t have the receptors to catch the disease

they do get infected and they do have the receptor. No idea where that bloke is getting his information but the ACE-II receptor is an important immune regulator. In older people it is down-regulated so they don't get the same control over inflammation.

Given that we may never have a vaccine, what are folks alternative plans then?

How long do you think home schooling and parents unable to go to work can be sustained?

I for one have no idea, not even a gut feeling really. I advocated being more proactive in closing schools in early February and now would be happier for them to stay closed until we know a few more things about the virus and the state of the pandemic in the country.

Before the schools reopen (this is off the top of my head so forgive me any obvious omissions) I would like to know:

How many people are currently infectious/infected?
More about the robustness of the 2m distancing and the effects of enclosed spaces
Are we equipped to test and trace?
How are children effected by the virus? the talk about toxic shock syndrome is slightly concerning, they said it was rare, but is that because it’s so new?
How children may be asymptomatic but able to spread the disease or not?
What PPE is appropriate
... so many more possible questions

Sorry, I guess what I’m thinking is I’d like to see a lot more accurate information. A lot more honest discussion of what we are trying to achieve. And a realistic plan of action, that people like a_a who’ve walked the walk can say with realistic optimism “ this might be achievable.

From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including COVID-19: a rapid systematic review

Only read the bit you posted, but but comes across as complete bollocks. This virus is novel hence we have no data to use in a model.

FWIW in Spain the schools are basically going to stay closed until September, and we're a week or two ahead of you back in the UK (from a Covid19 curve point of view). They'll be opening up for disadvantaged kids to get school meals and access to IT, but all classes are online.

it will need a totally new timetable which always takes weeks of work by a few people and is then handed out to teachers to look for errors and then redone over and over

I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it's stupid. It's really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document, but every year it's the same story, hours and hours wasted drawing up a timetable. Having to give classes online has simply made it more obvious to the general public, but the sheer lack of basic IT knowledge in the educational sector is something that has needed to be addressed for years.

Lancet has form for poor science, which is different to medical reporting.

We, Scottish secondary, are due to change to new timetable 1stjune. I asked management if there was a plan if full new timetable couldn't be implemented under "old" normal conditions.
Answer was, "wash your hands more". I seriously think August is return date with a national statement on how it's to be done.
Although not from Swinney, he's suggesting that the holidays be cut to 4 weeks. Given that I'm in a hub on a rota through the holidays. He can shove that where the sun don't shine.

Can’t help but notice an increase of chatter in the Press about kids going back to school.

Ignore. They've got very little apart from CV19 to write/broadcast about. You'll get a better insight on here to be quite honest.

I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it’s stupid. It’s really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document

It is done on a computer using specific timetabling software, the problem is making sure the person/people doing it understand all the parameters, for example which mfl teachers can do a level french or german, which science teachers can teach triple chemistry or a level biology or whatever, which subjects need to be time tabled in a computer room, which teachers are part time and which days can they work etc. If you could do it as quick as a flash get in touch with some schools a lot of them out source time tabling and pay the people a lot of money to do it.

Spain the schools are basically going to stay closed until September,

Not sure if it applies to the whole of Spain, but when my nephews in Valencia were at school, by this time of year they were almost finished anyway- May/June were half days and I think they finished by the end of June.

the sheer lack of basic IT knowledge in the educational sector is something that has needed to be addressed for years

In order to address it you would need to actually invest in systems that worked in the first place. In order to set work from home my school were able to provide me with a memory stick before we shut down, I dont even have a work laptop.

But if you can isolate the parents of those groups of children, the parents become the firebreak.

The operative word in that sentence being 'if'...

The simple truth being "parents" are a very mixed bunch, some might be homeworking some will be front line NHS and the age range and health status is going to vary. you can't isolate the parents from their kids at home, you can't guarantee isolation between the kids in school.
If the kids are back in school it's certain a proportion of parents will relax their own isolation, so you're almost certainly opening up a route for CV19 to spread within a community.

My point was that this may actually be the intent behind any school reopening. The assumption being that the population affected will be primarily kids in the 5-18 year range and parents in the 22-45ish range, allegedly more resilient groups. Of course that assumes zero contact with more vulnerable people like grandparents or people with longer term conditions.

I don't believe those secondary contacts can be accurately modelled and the longer the time line gets the more those isolations will break down. Its not as simple as people think...

I see a couple of factors at play here.
1. At some point the schools have to go back and the workplace has to reopen. It might look a little different but it has to happen. And unless the virus has been eradicated (no), a vaccine has been developed and administered (also no) or we can keep very clear social distance (no again), then there will be a risk. The government, rightly IMO opinion, will be weighing up the number of extra cases against the economic risks, it will be 100% safe to get everyone back.

2. Is social issues. As already touched on, the majority of people on here have enough money for an internet connection, food on the table and a grand or 2 of bikes. I don't doubt there are exceptions but I'd be confident in saying that is true for a majority. I'd also suggest that the vast majority will be treating their kids well and trying to educate them as best they can. But, we are not everyone. There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don't have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren't getting educated at home. There are also parents who are struggling and having the kids at school for a few hours every day will hugely help them as well.

The current way of life can't and won't go on forever, and I see the schools going back as a priorty.

I always find this amusing / bewildering. My wife has the same problem every year at her school, and it’s stupid. It’s really not that complicated a problem to solve on a computer, you could calculate it quite simply in a nothing more than an Excel document, but every year it’s the same story, hours and hours wasted drawing up a timetable.

The naivety in this comment ensures that pretty much everything you say on the subject is worth ignoring.

Indeed!

The naivety in this comment ensures that pretty much everything you say on the subject is worth ignoring.

Really? It's a pretty simple problem, there aren't that many variables in it. a_a has pointed out some of them, what class needs what room, the distance between classes, etc. It's a machine learning problem, optimising resource allocation for a given set of constraints - and there's nothing particularly new about it.

BTW I'm not in any way blaming the teachers, it's a chronic lack of investment in training and IT support that's to blame here. My wife's also having to try and work from home, using an old laptop we have and the outdated Spanish LEA software. My point is that the sudden dependence on IT has made it obvious the problems we already had.

There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home.

These kids are already going in.
This is not really an argument to re-open schools to the others.

From the Lancet on 06th April.
School closure and management practices during coronavirus outbreaks including...

a_a replied:
Only read the bit you posted, but but comes across as complete bollocks. This virus is novel hence we have no data to use in a model.

I have to say A_A you have a much better way of getting across what you mean, than I can manage. That’s perhaps what I should have said.

loum
Member
There are a whole load of kids to whom school is a safe place that they don’t have at home, and they need school back ASAP, they need the support it brings, the hot meals and the staff around them. They aren’t getting educated at home.

These kids are already going in.
This is not really an argument to re-open schools to the others.

They're not going in though, their parents can't be arsed taking them. Hence why a return for all would mean they can't fall under the radar.

I'm with Lunge on this. It has to happen, and it probably has to happen before many of us would like.

The need for proper testing/track and trace to enable it to happen sooner and more safely appears to have passed by our glorious leaders