Tsk. Tsk. @pca. I'd hate to accuse you of trolling but we've been over this so many times, I fear your question is very tongue-in-cheek. 😀
First of all, despite the SNPs sudden conversion to a position they didn't have a mere few weeks ago, not every independence supporter will vote for the SNP. Indeed, that's probably more true at this election than any previous one in my lifetime. The cynic in me says that the SNP have only come out with this because they're expecting NOT to have a majority this time.
Then there's the question that no unionist politician is willing to answer; how exactly does the population of Scotland express it's right to a referendum such that Westminster will grant it? Remember that Margaret Thatcher considered a majority of independence MPs to signify a right to independence itself, not merely a referendum on the matter.
As for the donations question, see the first part of my response.
how exactly does the population of Scotland express it’s right to a referendum
Well the SNP have consistently said that Westminster should listen to the voices of the Scottish people. In the vast majority of recent elections and polls the majority of Scottish voters have said they don't want a second referendum. Therefore Westminster is doing exactly what the SNP have asked them to do. Surely the SNP should be happy about that?
interesting that the SNP has put independence as line 1 in the manifesto
Not sure something that is 100% expected is "interesting".
Pretty sure if it wasn't at #1 you'd be posting up telling us how they're not now interested etc in independence...
Can’t have parties going back on their manifesto commitments 😀
Totally agree. The majority of Scottish voters voted for parties with manifesto policies of not having another referendum, and that's what we have now. So the Scottish electorate has got what it wants. Perfect!!
Except those parties weren't elected into power.
Yes but they were. An independence referendum is a reserved matter ie for Westminster to decide. And the party elected to govern had a manifesto policy of no second referendum.
To rephrase the question, why should we have another referendum when the majority of people don’t want one?
To rephrase the question, why should we have another referendum when the majority of people don’t want one?
Did I miss the vote?
Did I miss the vote?
Two answers.
- The vast majority of recent elections.
- Where was the vote that said we do want a second referendum?
I do think there is a clear democratic deficit at play here.
There should be a clear framework and process for the people of Scotland to be offered another referendum, because regardless of the pinhead dancing by union supporters (who have a legit PoV), the settlement on which the last referendum result rested has fundamentally changed. There should be a clear threshold or mechanism to trigger another referendum because Brexit (rightly or wrongly) has well and truly moved the goal posts.
The other part of the democratic deficit is that England doesn't have a parliament. And Westminster should not be the defacto English parliament.
The only way the unionists can legitimately snuff out the indy movement is with a proper federal approach to reform the UK. I doubt that will happen, so I think indy is an inevitability, but it will take time (sadly). Probably 25+ years from now.
not every independence supporter will vote for the SNP...how exactly does the population of Scotland express it’s right to a referendum such that Westminster will grant it?
The first point is a generic one about manifestos and mandates. Very few people are totally aligned with any party. If I only care about banning fossil fuel advertising, then I should vote for the Scottish Greens. If they're elected, then they have a mandate to implement that policy - but also every other policy in their manifesto.
If on the other hand I think the ad ban would be a good idea but on balance I prefer the manifesto of another party, then I should vote for the other party. But that other party won't have a mandate to ban fossil fuel advertising once it gets in because it wasn't in their manifesto.
The reverse is also true for parties: if they really want a mandate to do something, they should put it into their manifesto. If they don't, they should not spend public money on pursuing it (as the former Minister for Independence did, having civil servants dreaming up hypothetical scenarios for Independence negotiations at some unknown time in the future).
The second question is perfectly straightforward and not some kind of riddle at all: when a majority of the Scottish electorate votes for a party that has a manifesto commitment to a referendum. I could not GAS what Margaret Thatcher (now only the UK's third worst PM!) said on this subject.
I do think there is a clear democratic deficit at play here.
And I say that before even considering the s**tshow that is FPTP.
Is it just me or does anyone else find the co leader thing the Green Partys do a turn off?
The election calculus site has a page with Scotland-specific information, analysis and predictions here https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
Even with attributing all of the "Other" vote share to pro independence parties the total pro independence vote share is 37.9%, which is not a great figure for those in the SNP hoping for a third independence referendum.
If the polls are accurate then the SNP is set to lose almost 60% of it's MPs, not great for their original plan to use the general election as a substitute referendum.
not every independence supporter will vote for the SNP
According to the vote share on election calculus' site more than 7 out of 8 do though.
The intention to hold a second referendum was in the SNP's 2021 manifesto.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56750867
In 2021 the SNP and Green parties combined formed a government which had a majority in Holyrood. It is true that more people voted for the unionist parties, but only by a ba hair. In 2014 there was a majority of just under 385,000 for the union. In 2021 38,540 more people voted for the unionist parties than for the pro indy parties. Less than the average attendance at Ibrox. In my opinion the matter is not settled and it won't be settled by the parties and their supporters staying in their silos and trotting out their party pieces about one another. There is an urgent need for all sides to work together for all of Scotland right now Unionists should accept that people should be able to campaign for indy and that there should be a legal route to independence. Indy supporters must accept that unionists are just as Scottish as they are.
Is it just me or does anyone else find the co leader thing the Green Partys do a turn off?
Not really - and not saying that as Green voter - it's more that we seem to focus too much on the leader rather than the party. The leader's name isn't on the ballot paper (unless you're their constituent) and theres no guarantee that the leader you vote for is the leader you'll get for the duration of the the term. As recent history seems to illustrate north and south of the border (and east and west of another)
You could argue that the Greens are being different for the sake of it, but everyone else is being the same for the sake of it. I don't see why a party shouldn't have two leaders, especially in opposition. Our government structure creates one top job for the the party in power but I don't see why that has to be mirrored by other parties - I don't even see why a party can't have 10 leaders.
Not sure something that is 100% expected is “interesting"
Sorry - I should also have said that if this is how the SNP always presents the issue, then you're right it's not interesting at all. I thought it was a departure from previous practice esp in the light of Swinney binning the Independence Minister role. If that's wrong, it's all unremarkable.
I find the independence topic stifling and frustrating as long as there is no specific proposal on the table. It suffocates the rest of Scottish political discourse when every criticism of the SNP in power is countered with blaming the union as the root cause (even on things like education that are devolved and have always been Scotland specific), and every assessment of the SNP is measured by whether they have or have not moved closer to independence. Not everything in Scottish politics is about independence and the endless wittering (that I do too) about high faluting political principles and constituonal dilemmas is a total fing waste of time
You could argue that the Greens are being different for the sake of it, but everyone else is being the same for the sake of it. I don’t see why a party shouldn’t have two leaders, especially in opposition. Our government structure creates one top job for the the party in power but I don’t see why that has to be mirrored by other parties – I don’t even see why a party can’t have 10 leaders.
Fair enough. But to me it's being different for the sake of it. And it's not just political parties that choose a single leader. Sports team nearly always have one captain. Companies have one chief exec. It doesn't mean other people can't be highly influential both internally and externally. Personally a leader and sperate spokespeople on different policy areas just works.
So long as the Scottish governments block grant is determined by the Barnett formula then government spending in England will affect Scottish government spending.
Said it before, i'm not sure how this election can be used for any independence argument, there's a long road for the SNP, Greens and other pro-indy parties to go down to get to the point of pushing hard for a referendum.
As previously, you'll always have your 25% hardline indy voters, you'll have the 25% hardline unionists, the battleground for independence is going to be in the middle, where it won't be swayed by slogans about how good we'd have it with independence, or how we're better together, it'll be about the perceived benefits of independence, or staying part of the UK, a lot of those folk aren't going to sign up to change for the sake of change, so will have to be sold on it, which is why i think the referendum is a fair few years off at least.
" i’m not sure how this election can be used for any independence argument,"
The SNP will claim any vote for them is a vote for indy. So in that respect if the SNP got 51% of the votes they would want indyref 2. So for me the fewer votes they get the better. Even in a Holyrood election if I thought a new SNP govt would govern Scotland best of all the parties (fat chance) I wouldn't vote for them.
In one respect it makes life simple for me. No need to go through manifestos. I live in an SNP/LibDem marginal so I vote LibDem.
The route to indy is demonstrating a record of good govt over a decade or more which will persuade floating voters that as the SNP can make a fist of devolved govt then indy wouldn't be a car crash. This would get indy support up from around 45% to a consistent 55% or better at which point the UK govt would be morally required to grant indyref 2.
If i'm in the SNP, this is probably the worst time to start planning for a referendum, you're about to lose the tory government you've been slating for a decade, the EU is in a bit of turmoil, lots of things up in the air and you're coming off a bad year internally and in government.
The most important thing about the next referendum will be timing for the Yes vote
The most important thing about the next referendum will be timing for the Yes vote
I agree, agree. TBH if I was Starmer I’d be saying “Indyref? Yes of course. How about in a month’s time? “ You’d be pretty much guaranteed that Yes would lose & then they are buggered for the next 10+ years. I’ve never seen the sense in allowing the SNP to pick the time of their own choosing.
interesting that the SNP has put independence as line 1 in the manifesto. If they get a majority of MPs in Scotland, I suppose they have a mandate for a referendum in the next term. And if they don’t get a mandate does that mean they’ll stop spending public money on exploring options for independence…?
The SNP can't win either way in your eyes so utterly perfect for another post
Place independence as the core strategy in your manifesto and you get accused of not dealing with "issues"
Focus on "issues" and you get accused of ignoring independance
So long as the Scottish governments block grant is determined by the Barnett formula then government spending in England will affect Scottish government spending.
And whenever Holyrood wants to do something Westminster disagrees/dislikes then they just pull the Internal Market Card.
"You’d be pretty much guaranteed that Yes would lose & then they are buggered for the next 10+ years."
Didn't work the last time. We are only 10 years on from the referendum and the SNP have never stopped trying to get a re-run. The best way to stop it is for the SNP to get a drubbing this year and then lose power in Holyrood in 2026.
Never started trying, more like. It's why they're losing membership in droves.
So far we have had one leaflet - SNP, no knocks on the door.
They might not have started but they droned on about it enough.
"Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed she will ask for permission to hold a second referendum on Scottish independence.Ms Sturgeon said she wanted a vote to be held between the autumn of 2018 and the spring of the following year."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181
Etc, etc, etc.
he actual research shows the unionist parties talk about the SNP and independence far more than the SNP do
You think. Even during Covid they couldn't let it go.
"minutes of a Scottish Cabinet meeting dated June 30 2020 showed SNP ministers “agreed that consideration be given to restarting work on independence and a referendum” using “the experience of the coronavirus crisis”.
She insisted this did not result in any action to restart a separation campaign and was merely a “comment”, but Lady Hallett, chairing the inquiry, intervened to note that the minutes stated this had been “agreed"
he actual research shows the unionist parties talk about the SNP and independence far more than the SNP do
What research?
Previous electioncamaign. The unionist parties talked sbout independence more than theSNP. Someone looked at all the speeches and interviews and counted the mentions
^ That was the ferret website wasn’t it?
Ferret website? who knows? Usually anyone quoting research gives a link.
Maybe the SNP were not big on talking about indy during an election campaign because it is a net vote loser?
What research?
Pretty much ever single bit of correspondence from my Tory MP, every Tweet of his and every photo op.
Example:
Everyday I get a Lamont leaflet, possibly had three from snp. Not a thing from anyone else.
Starting to see a lot of ostentatious Lamont boards, reenforcing the perception of who the Tories are for. What you have to strain to see is what party it represents.
Coward.
Meanwhile over the Lammermuirs, I have just received a couple from Douglas Alexander, now recycled (like him).
Ferret website? who knows? Usually anyone quoting research gives a link.
Maybe the SNP were not big on talking about indy during an election campaign because it is a net vote loser?
TBF I wonder if the Scottish Tories will be putting Brexit as line 1 of their campaign material...
I think we are in for a few interesting years in Scottish politics with the next holyrood election only a year or so away. I think its a given the SNP will lose seats in the westminster election - and a good few. But Holyrood is more interesting. SNP lose more than a few seats there and they will be unable to even run a minority government and even Green help will probably not be enough. Its highly unlikely labour will get anywhere near a majority either and with the lib dems diminished I see a labour / Liberal administration unlikely to get close to a majority. So what happens then? I can see a labour / tory administration happening - maybe disguised as a minority government ( like Edinburgh council) but with labour relying on tory support to get stuff thru
SNP need a spell out of power to regroup
I'm making no predictions for 2026 yet, assuming we have to wait that long
A leaflet from the SNP has joined the leaflet I got a few days ago from Labour. I'm in Joanna Cherry's constituency so presumably she has a bit of name recognition that might aid her.
In addition to the obvious parties (SNP, Labour, Conservatives, LibDems, Greens, Reform) Edinburgh South West also has a candidate from the EDINBURGH PEOPLE party, and a candidate from the Scottish Family Party.
EDINBURGH PEOPLE mainly oppose national political parties I think, but also have a scattering of policies. Googling their candidate's name suggests that he has set up the party, was the man behind the SNAPfax discount pack thing back in the '90s, owns a pizza takeaway and is a "loon" with a side order of conspiracy theories.
IIRC the Scottish Family Party are one of those parties that have a very specific and uncompromising view of what a family should be.
a candidate from the Scottish Family Party.
We have one of those too.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn33mxe98p4o.amp
IIRC the Scottish Family Party are one of those parties that have a very specific and uncompromising view of what a family should be.
They obviously haven’t read the Zeitgeist
“IIRC the Scottish Family Party are one of those parties that have a very specific and uncompromising view of what a family should be.”
Oh yes, we got one of those too. They are not at all liberal are they? No abortion, no transgenders, no killing yourself, no sex education, no ban on ‘hate’ speech etc. And thats without any mention of religion. I can see them getting less than 50 votes in D&G.
You forgot no dancing on a sunday
“You forgot no dancing on a sunday “
We were out with a guy from Barra on Tuesday, in the 80’s he lived on another Island, could have been Uist, anyway, at that time, the pubs werent allowed to open on a Sunday. The local Police came over on the boat patrolling (very little crime there), and they would always be gone once the last boat went, so on a Sunday, once the Police were on the boat away, the pub opened and no one ever reported them.
Just a microcosm of rule from central government doesnt work when they start impeding on peoples lives.
My work colleague is from North Lewis - they weren’t even allowed to switch on the telly on a Sunday whilst the Free Church was preaching hellfire and damnation!
A friend of mine was one of the few Catholics on Lewis. He used to be the only kid playing in the playparks on Sunday.
Or at least he was until someone complained and the council started chaining them up on Saturday night and only unchaining them on Monday morning (the playparks, not the Catholics).
It's not exactly politics, and I am agnostic/atheist but I reckon gaelic psalm singing is really beautiful, and it comes from those people who happen to be sabbatarians
You can read more about it here https://www.theguardian.com/music/2020/aug/27/vertical-connection-to-god-the-euphoria-of-gaelic-psalm-singing
You couldn’t hang out washing or go to the peat stack and bring some fuel in on the sabbath.
no need for the past tense - we stayed in a holiday cottage fairly recently and it came with a brief note explaining/asking not to hang washing out on a Sunday.
im torn - I had the religious element of it - but the idea that virtually everyone stops working, including in the home is quite nice. We laugh and scoff but if it was a Muslim, Jewish or other faith that dominated a region and the culture was grounded in that faith we would all criticise people who don’t respect that.
if you sole reason for doing it is to worship a god, then I think you are only one step removed from flat earth / covid vaccine / 5G conspiracy people… but culturally the Hebrides feels very different from the rest of the country and mostly I think that is healthy.
So it looks like a well deserved result for the SNP with them losing ~80% of their MPs, more of a humping than the Tories got. It's great to see the electorate rejecting chaotic, entitled, simple minded nationalists on two fronts in this election. What a great day!
Be interesting to see just how many voters were disenfranchised because of the election timing and the postal votes mess. It'll be particularly interesting to see if there was a particular set of demographics who were disproportionally affected.
I still have no idea if I voted or not. Is there any way to check?
Sorry Bruce, I may be missing something. Did you send a postal vote but your sceptical it's been counted?
Be interesting to see just how many voters were disenfranchised because of the election timing and the postal votes mess
Turnout down 8.5%, so not too far out of line with the rest of the UK (7.6%)?
Meh, said it last month, this election isn't the important one for the SNP, it's almost a benefit to allow them to get a handle for the scottish election in a couple of years, Swinney was a bit weird pointing at this one as being a barometer for another referendum.
Hopefully they just move on quietly on this one, again, not even sure what the SNP MPs do in the bigger picture, they seem to be a separate entity to the MSPs, it's more about getting speeches in than doing any governing, so still not sure it causes any real problems for the SNP just now.
Sent my postal vote but no idea if it arrived in time.
From what I understand there were a lot of people who are still waiting for their postal ballots. And plenty more who were already away on holiday by the time they arrived.
"From what I understand there were a lot of people who are still waiting for their postal ballots" Possibly true, but not remotely an explanation for the SNP's poor showing in this election.
"So it looks like a well deserved result for the SNP with them losing ~80% of their MPs,"
Live by FPtP, die by FPtP. Labour's turn to be obscenely overrepresented
There's certainly some problems with the ballot my constituency now wont be decided until tomorrow because of discrepancies at the count.
The recount will not as I understand it make a difference to the result but must happen anyway.
Perhaps it's just a part of the general shit show in the administration of the election.
Mean time I hope the SNP begin a period of reflection and rebuilding.
The matter of independence hasnt gone away support remains roughly 50 /50. It can't really be satisfactory that there's no democratic route to independence which does not involve asking the UK government for permission
I’m no great fan of the SNP but I do find myself in complete agreement with what they’ve been saying about how Westminster needs to listen to what the Scottish people are saying. And last night the Scottish people made their feelings quite clear.
"still not sure it causes any real problems for the SNP just now."
Apart from losing a lot of experience and a stack of Short Money which is not good for a party so hard up it's MPs had to crowdfund for the election and had an £800k loss in 2022.
https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/alynsmithsnp
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-66605391
Do they not still owe alleged embezzler Peter Murrel £60k as well?
A quick looks suggests the SNP will lose over £800k Short Money.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01663/
Then looking further ahead if Operation Branchform results in an extended criminal trial = more bad vibes and bad publicity.
Aww ****.......galloway to stay conservative.
Why?....just why?
Dunno but my sister is scunnered because she had to deal with Mr Jack in her day job and wanted him gone altogether
Aww ****…….galloway to stay conservative.
Why?….just why?
Labour / SNP split was always going to enable this. I certainly would have preferred the Tories out, however, I dont see it as a bad thing as SNP not getting the seat adds to the overall disaster for them which will accelerate the reforms they need to make in policy and party governance. Also Labour achieved a better than expected result so hopefully that will encourage them to up their game as well.
Seems Douglas Ross got what he deserved for stabbing another Tory in the back.
"A former Conservative MP who has been replaced as a general election candidate by the party's Scottish leader has dismissed suggestions that he is too unwell to stand.
David Duguid, who is in hospital after becoming ill in April, wrote in a social media post that reports he is unable to stand due to his health are "simply incorrect"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3ggj3ql5r4o
I suspect many Tory voters will have gone elsewhere because of that.
We laugh and scoff but if it was a Muslim, Jewish or other faith that dominated a region and the culture was grounded in that faith we would all criticise people who don’t respect that.
If Muslims or Jews in this country were going around harassing people for drinking beer or operating a light bulb on a Friday evening they'd get told to do one. They don't and everything goes fine. Fundamentalists in Scotland are no different. They're entitled to make their own choices but not impose them on others, and no-one from this country should feel apologetic or embarrassed about doing things that are perfectly legal and normal.
not even sure what the SNP MPs do in the bigger picture
Wow, it's Schrodinger's reserved matters: on one hand, the fact that Scotland doesn't have them and isn't independent is a huge impediment to its progress for reasons. On the other hand, the fact that the SNP is going to be even less engaged on them means nothing.
Meanwhile, more prominence for Anas Sarwar...is not a good thing for Labour. Hopefully he will realise that the Labour Party under Starmer is going to be more demanding when it comes to transparency and anti-sleaze, and that his family machine politics are an anachronism. But I doubt it.
I’m no great fan of the SNP but I do find myself in complete agreement with what they’ve been saying about how Westminster needs to listen to what the Scottish people are saying. And last night the Scottish people made their feelings quite clear.
Did they? Over 40% of them were either so scunnered with politics they didn't bother voting, couldn't be bothered to organise a postal vote, or couldn't be bothered to chase up the admin chaos of postal votes (would be interesting to see the % return of postal votes requested compared to normal!). If you were in the SNP excuse factory you'd be saying those people were least likely to be those who were desperate for change.
That's more people who were either disenfranchised or shrugged and said it will make zero difference anyway than actually voted for labour!
About 30% still voted for SNP despite the seats telling another story. If you add votes for Indy supporting parties the number of votes for labour and number who have Indy as a headline are almost neck and neck. If you do the totals across all parties then those who want the status quo and those who want a major shift (including the Lib Dems federalism in that) in the settlement for scoltand - its far from a clear cut message - and this election really wasn't fought on an Indy or Unionist agenda so I'm not sure what the Government should take from it, but any government that ignores the views of 1/3rd of the population (whether indy or unionist) is on a hiding to nothing.
The situation is the same across the country and thats the real challenge for politicians - who to get people to care.
The postal votes fiasco is likely to have affected all parties equally. The other people who didn’t vote (apart from those who were ill etc) don’t deserve to have their opinions taken into account. No matter what their views.
The SNP put independence on page one of their manifesto in big bold type. They’ve also been going on for a few years now about this being a de facto referendum. The simple and straightforward fact is that the majority of Scottish voters (leaving the Lib Dems out of it) voted for parties opposed to a second referendum. As they have done in every (I think) election in the past decade. Yet the SNP keep saying that Westminster are ignoring the Scottish people. When they plainly aren’t.
That said there’s part of me would sort of love Starmer to call their bluff and give them a referendum this autumn. But that wouldn’t be democratic.
Over 40% of them [didn't vote]...If you were in the SNP excuse factory you’d be saying those people were least likely to be those who were desperate for change.
If you're saying the 40% of the electorate that didn't vote should be counted as people that "don't want change", then between them and those that voted Labour and Tory it creates an overwhelming majority of voters that don't want any change to the Union.
Which really shows nothing but what a barrel-scrapingly terrible, nonsensical, anti-democratic excuse that would be...if anyone were to make it. ?
Over 40% of them were either so scunnered with politics they didn’t bother voting, couldn’t be bothered to organise a postal vote, or couldn’t be bothered to chase up the admin chaos of postal votes
I would be curious as to how much the choice of the election date also made in Scotland.
A lot of people would be heading off on holiday as the schools finish,did they sort out a postal vote in time?
Along with Voter ID,did it put many people off?
I am sure more than few 'floating/soft' voters may not have bothered.
The SNP put independence on page one of their manifesto in big bold type
The problem is they didn't say how they were going to achieve it. Getting an overwhelming majority and then asking for a referendum has been shown to not work so why do it again?
There are at least two indy supporters on here who didn't vote at all.
I voted Green in a constituency where if the Green and SNP votes were added together they would have won. I have no faith that the SNP has a viable plan to deliver independence so I might as well let people know I still want green issues front and centre.
SNP is due some time in the wilderness. I'm pretty happy with the result (SNP could have won 50+ seats and it would not have advanced the indy movement). A grand Coalition of unionist parties gaining power in the next Scottish Parliament would also be a good thing. Let's finally see the solutions to all the problems Labour and the Tories have been gleefully pointing out for the last 10 years.
Swinney is a good person to mind the shop in the meantime. I'm fairly certain he's fully aware he's taking one for the team for the next couple of years. No reason for anyone of the younger generation to burn their political capital on a no hope parliament.
Let's see how content Scotland is with the Union after a Labour Westminster government continues to ignore Scotland and the grand coalition realises it's easier to complain than to solve problems when you don't have access to the levers you need to successfully govern.
Or maybe this has been the high point and indy support will dwindle from here on in. The problem for unionists is the No voters continue to leave the electorate while new Yes voters are turning 16 (or 18) every day.
Is Starmer going to remember Scotland (and young people) exist? I wouldn't hold my breath.
"Yes voters are turning 16 (or 18) every day."
Firstly, people change their opinions as they get older. Secondly the 2014 indyref was lost partly because 16-24 year old voters said "No!".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-34283948
