I did my celebrating last night. After the SNP ignoring the once in a generation referendum it is now dead for a generation.
You keep telling yourself that.
You're going to have a last hurrah at the next SP elections. Then I'm afraid it'll all be downhill from there.
Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists. You reckon that's going to happen?
I've not looked at Indy polling for a while, found myself on the recent Redfield poll and was abit surprised to see Labour neck and neck with the SNP for Holyrood voting intentions.
However, when voters are asked who they would vote for if a Scottish Parliamentary Election were held tomorrow, Labour has regained a narrow 1% lead over the Scottish National Party in our constituency voting intention poll.
The Scottish Conservatives, meanwhile, fall to their lowest ever vote share (14%) in our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll.
Altogether the results of our Holyrood Constituency Voting Intention poll (with changes from 1-2 June in parentheses) are as follows:
Scottish Labour 34% (+2)
Scottish National Party 33% (–)
Scottish Conservatives 14% (-3)
Scottish Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Reform UK Scotland 6% (+2)
Scottish Green Party 3% (+1)
Alba Party 1% (-1)
Other 1% (+1)
I notice Alba lost all their deposits. The alternative SNP party doesn’t seem to picking up many votes on a platform of accelerating the path to Independence.
Sturgeon says nothing to do with her. Maybe her memory failing her again.
Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists. You reckon that’s going to happen?
What specifically do you mean by this?
As Bruce says, the easiest way for Labour to crack on and take the wind out of the SNP's sails is to resolve some of the societal problems that motivate people to want it. If we end up with a better, fairer, more prosperous society as part of the Union, I can probably live with independence becoming a non-issue in my lifetime. The unionists have the upper hand now - time to put their money where their mouth is...
What specifically do you mean by this?
What ditch_jockey says.
Labour have a ridiculous majority and in a couple of years they are going to be the leaders of a coalition in Holyrood. There will be no more excuses, that if only it wasn't for the Tories/the SNP Scotland would be great. Or at least, not quite so shite.
Personally, I don't think things are going to improve much. The same fundamental issues that hamstrung the SNP will still be present and who exactly will the unionists blame then?
But who knows, maybe Labour will do something radical. Personally, I won't be holding my breath.
https://twitter.com/Forth1News/status/1809086439453262054
First time I've seen this interview. Pretty much sums it up for me I think.
in a couple of years they are going to be the leaders of a coalition in Holyrood. There will be no more excuses, that if only it wasn’t for the Tories/the SNP Scotland would be great.
What does that specifically have to do with needing to "remind Starmer that Scotland exists"?
OK, one example. Scotland needs immigration. England doesn't.
Or rather, Scotland wants immigration, England doesn't.
Starmer has a choice to make. Is he going to run scared of Reform or of the Scottish voters?
I'd like to see him pull off his mask and reveal his true intention of reversing the damages done by Brexit. However, I don't think that's very likely given that he went out of his way to reiterate yet again there would be no reversal in his lifetime and no concessions to a closer alignment with the EU.
Or maybe he'll allow Scotland to set it's own immigration policy. It would be the obvious solution. How likely do you think that is?
Or is your argument simply that Scotland is just like any other region in the UK and should just sit down and be quiet?
The immigration problem is that over half a million immigrants came to the UK last year. Why do only a trickle come to Scotland? Scotland wants immigrants but immigrants don't want Scotland.
I'm not convinced an article by Murdo is going to swing many opinions not already fixed.
Why do only a trickle come to Scotland? Scotland wants immigrants but immigrants don’t want Scotland.
Economics...now tootle off and educate yourself.
So, according to you an Murdo Fraser, Scotland's taxes are too high and that's why migrants don't want to come? That's the closest thing I can find to a suggestion of what needs to be done in the article you posted (by the way, well done for posting an article written by a Tory on today of all days).
I'd say that this kind of proves my point. If the UK as a whole has too many migrants but Scotland doesn't have enough, it doesn't say much about the chances of a Labour government easing restrictions so that more migrants might get lost and find themselves in Glasgow instead of London.
I'd say the main issue is that the Scottish Government doesn't have the tools to allow the required investment. The good news is that Labour (and probably even Murdo Fraser) will soon be able to prove me wrong and finally reveal the solutions to the problems they have been so keen to point out.
Unless you'd like to suggest how to attract more migrants to Scotland yourself? Something beyond, Get The SNP Out?
Economics…now tootle off and educate yourself.
Not exactly an enlightening response, from what i've seen and read, it's a genuine issue, and 'economics' doesn't answer the question being asked.
that's enough od an explainer, plenty of reports online regarding why migrant workers choose to work down south where they can be paid more
Not exactly an enlightening response, from what i’ve seen and read, it’s a genuine issue, and ‘economics’ doesn’t answer the question being asked.
Massive investment (comparatively) in the South leads to a great deal more opportunities. Also, people like to settle where they already have connections so if more people you might already know live there then you're going to prefer living there. It's a Virtuous circle. Likewise, areas that have been ignored end up in a vicious circle.
From the article:
Far too few end up coming to Scotland. Indeed, of the 12 nations and regions of the UK, Scotland currently sits ninth on the table in terms of attracting migrant workers, ahead only of Wales, Northern Ireland and the North-East, and behind every other part of England.
Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, and the North East are unlikely to be a priority for Labour, anymore than they were a priority for the Tories.
I would welcome being proved wrong on this.
from other sites
England:
Milder weather. More similar to the most European countries
More job opportunities because of British government investment
Better paid jobs (~25% more than the same job in Scotland )
Cheaper. England is closer to Europe so import is much cheaper than to Scotland (if I want to ship something large from the EU to Scotland they usually ask for an extra £600-800)
Cheaper services(plumbers, joiners, builders, gas engineers, etc..). In England is a huge competition between those jobs and they keep prices low. I have seen that some things were up to 6x more expensive.
Shorter and cheaper flights to the rest of Europe.
lower taxes Scotland
he UK gov and parliament have done nothing but focus on London and the South East since forever so people are more attracted to those areas as they have a higher standard of living that the rest of the UK.
With that England has larger communities of immigrants so naturally that will attract people to come and live in their communities or join friends/ family.
"Milder weather. More similar to the most European countries
More job opportunities because of British government investment
Better paid jobs (~25% more than the same job in Scotland )
Cheaper. England is closer to Europe so import is much cheaper than to Scotland (if I want to ship something large from the EU to Scotland they usually ask for an extra £600-800)
Cheaper services(plumbers, joiners, builders, gas engineers, etc..). In England is a huge competition between those jobs and they keep prices low. I have seen that some things were up to 6x more expensive.
Shorter and cheaper flights to the rest of Europe.
lower taxes Scotland"
Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?
Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?
Don't think anyone of them would be removed but you knew that, didn't you?
Problems generally don't get 'removed'. They get mitigated and one of the mitigation factors might be to not be forced to apply the same visa requirements as a country that is actively trying to reduce the number of migrants.
But I think it's unlikely the obsession with the Union will allow Labour to consider anything like this. Keeping the Union stable is the only thing the Westminster parties care about. If it damages the Scottish economy so be it.
But Labour now have the power to prove me wrong so let's see if they choose to do so.
Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?.
The way the arithmetic and tribalism works its a likely outcome. Murray would rather tories than SNP.
With two years to go, I'd say it's not impossible that a Labour / LibDem coalition government was possible. It wouldn't necessarily have to have a majority either. We also know that the Scottish Greens have no qualms about supporting a Labour government.
That Fraser article sounds like it was dictated from the back seat of a taxi on the way home from the golf club. It doesn't do much in the way of facts.
The UK is basically two separate countries when it comes to immigration: SE England, which has very high levels of immigration and, and the rest. Scotland is right in the middle of the rankings of "the rest" in terms of where immigrants in the UK live. It is heavier on EU immigrants and lighter on Rest of World immigrants.
https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/where-do-migrants-live-in-the-uk/
I don't agree with the assumption that Scotland needs more immigrants or with the attitude that people are chattels that can be "imported". But even if it did, the Scottish Parliament already has the powers it needs to make Scotland a more attractive place to live and attract more workers from the pool of ~70 million people in the UK and Ireland who could move to Scotland tomorrow, let alone some of the 5.5 million UK citizens that live overseas.
Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?.
I'd like to see a Holyrood with no party holding an overall majority, which is how it was designed to be in theory. Ideally with Labour holding most seats, but with the SNP, Liberals and Tories holding a good few seats too. Also the Greens if they ditch the odious Patrick Harvie and get back to core green issues rather than the nonsense he's got them obsessed with.
Then we'd have a Holyrood that Starmer is keen to work with, and where Scotland sees the benefits of the country as a whole getting rid of that Tory government. Ideally a Holyrood where centrist policies dominate and where running the Scotland well is a bigger concern that anything else. Fingers crossed.
Kenny. Thats when we will get a tory labour unionist coalition
Next Scottish parliament election will be no later than May 7th 2026. So the preparation for campaigning will begin soon. Real campaigning probably christmas 2025 . My guess is that Swinney does not have the time to turn things around ,even if he has the desire to do so.
What's the bets that Dross stands for Reform in 2026? The very thought of it "gies me the boak "
"Are you unionists looking forward to the labour/ tory unionist coalition in Holyrood?."
Unlikely. I think if Labour were the largest party a LibLab minority coalition is more likely as pre 2007 But a Labour/Tory coalition could hardly govern worse than the SNP/Green one did.
Poor infrastructure with the Greens opposed to upgrading roads.
DRS scheme.
Discouraging North Sea investment.
Weighing up every decision on how it affects independence.
Expenses fiddler getting full backing of FM
Party chairman charged with embezzlement.
Why insist on discussing the Scottish Government's current performance instead of an awful 2026 scenario that I've just invented? ?
The immigration problem is that over half a million immigrants came to the UK last year.
Seems too much chat these days about immigration, but none about emigration.
The latest estimates on migration from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that in 2023: 1.2 million people migrated into the UK and 532,000 people emigrated from it, leaving a net migration figure of 685,000
Not saying anything, not disagreeing. Just showing figures.
Which of those factors would be removed by a Scottish visa?
Check the posts, in your excitement to froth you may notice I wasn’t replying to a comment regarding visa’s
Seems too much chat these days about immigration, but none about emigration.
Well, yeah - the "chat" is about immigration because net immigration to the UK is what we are experiencing right now. If there were net emigration to the UK, we would be discussing that - but there isn't. If emigration and immigration were roughly equal, there would be nothing to discuss at all.
And the last seat goes from SNP to LibDems. Confirming the Nats down to single figures. The grimmer end of expectations as Nicola put it.
I'd sort of overlooked that Joanna Cherry lost to Scott Arthur in my old seat, he was my first ever internet troll! I went to uni, got given the internet, instantly went and started wasting hours on it. Joined a bunch of mailing lists, one of them being the Iain Banks list culture@busstop.org. Dr Scott was a lecturer at the same uni and also on that list (he always liked to drop in the doctor, he'd literally say "In my experience as a doctor" and the like and not mention that he was a doctor of civil engineering). And he was just relentlessly full of shit, a totally dishonest contrarian who didn't even care if he won, he just enjoyed being a prick. He was pretty good at it- he had all the word games, he could switch from school bully to poor victim in a second, contradict himself then blame you for being too stupid to understand him, all that stuff. I thought it was just one weird person with some sort of disorder, rather than being an actual internet thing, how innocent I was back then...
Anyway, he took that attitude into politics too- he made his name as an SNP BAAAAD Labour unionist, got on the council, was most noteworthy for blaming the SNP for stuff the Labour council had done. Did that mathematically impossible thing of going on the question time audience multiple times and getting his questions asked each time, and one of those he pretended to be an SNP member and went off on a frothing rant about how all unionists were traitors and should leave the country. He only got found out because he was so pleased with himself he had to tell people how he'd made the SNP look bad and got away with it, and tbh he probably didn't understand why he got in trouble for it.
Bloody excellent lecturer though and in recent years he's been a good councillor and seems to have left the whole "total shiteheel" thing behind him once he realised that like in his day job he could actually do positive stuff with his skills and succeed on merit, he's been really strong on transport etc. Good luck to him.
Ha that's a brilliant story Northwind!
He sounds like a bit of a power hungry **** then?
And he was just relentlessly full of shit, a totally dishonest contrarian who didn’t even care if he won, he just enjoyed being a prick.
Are you sure he's not on STW now?
Are you sure he’s not on STW now?
If that was aimed at me, then as a doctor, I resent the implication.
recent years he’s been a good councillor
I’m not sure I’d go that far
as a doctor
Just checking: Doctor of what?
Unless someone can remind Starmer that Scotland exists. You reckon that’s going to happen?
This aged well! lol
On his second full day as prime minister, Keir Starmer is setting off on a tour around the UK intended to reset relations with the devolved governments. He will be in Scotland this evening...
"And that begins today with an immediate reset of my government’s approach to working with the first and deputy first ministers because meaningful co-operation centred on respect will be key to delivering change across our United Kingdom.
"Together we can begin the work to rebuild our country with a resolute focus on serving working people once again."
Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour to co-operate given the mandate for its platform given to it by voters.
It will be i interesting to see if we get more than kind words. Labour and Starmer have shown nothing but contempt for Holyrood. Its gonna take a lot to get trust back
Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour to co-operate given the mandate for its platform given to it by voters.
Careful PCA.........your inherent bias is appearing to show.
The SNP and Sturgeon and Yousaf and Swinney have shown nothing but contempt for Westminster. It's gonna take a lot to get trust back.
I have finnally had time to look at the scots results a bit more. Much as I suspect6ed the vagaries of FPTP have really mucked it up with labour the beneficiaries hugely.
Labour 37 mps on 35% of the vote
SNP 9 on 30%
Lib dems 6 on 10%
tories 5 on 12%
Reform 0 on 7%
Greens zero on 4%
Now we know folk vote differently in a PR election but lets just see what that would bring to HOlyrood
Labour 45 msps
SNP 39
Lib dem12
Tories 16
Green 5
Reform 9
65 for a majority
Thats your labour / tory lib dem unioninst coalition right there. labour will never work with the SNP or Greens even tho the reverse is not true.
Labour cannot get close enough to a majority without the tories..
Gonna be interesting. I really think Scottish labour are stupid enough to do it.
Hopefully the SNP can overcome its tribal hatred of Labour
thi8s is just nonsense. Labour hate the SNP for kicking them out of power. There is no tribal hatred going the other way. Nnne. Since labour lost power in Scotland they have behaved disgracefully.
I missed out low turnout as well. Low turnout does rather show the lack of enthusiasm for labour and the SNP
we know folk vote differently in a PR election
There is no tribal hatred going the other way. Nnne.
"What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence."
Anyway, more interestingly: is there anything that the SNP is willing and capable of working with Labour on in Westminster to serve the population of Scotland better? If yes, what is it, specifically?
And how will the SNP cope with no reportable donations in Q1 2024 and a £1 million reduction in public funding to the party? The next big donor that comes along is going to have a lot of influence over the party's policy base. Hopefully they're choosy enough not to open the door to proxies of the Kremlin (as we've seen with nationalist and populist parties elsewhere in Europe, including the Tories).
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24435540.tough-choices-ahead-snp-party-set-lose-900k/
Anyway, more interestingly: is there anything that the SNP is willing and capable of working with Labour on in Westminster to serve the population of Scotland better? If yes, what is it, specifically?
All those areas of policy where they have the same or similar.
SNP have clearly said they will work with Labour and welcome a labour government in Westminster. Scottish labour work with the tories rather than the SNP even cheering on Tory wins and also asking labour voters to vote tory in some seats. This gave May 10 scots tories and saved her government which led to Brexit. labour in Scotland just shoot themselves in the foot time after time.
Love the usual smear that the SNP are the same as the far right nationalist and populist parties. The SNP are neither
"its not where I come from as a person, its about where we are going as a nation"
Labour and the SNP (and the Lib Dems) go after a lot of the same votes, that's the big issue between them, add in the big ticket item of independence and you have them on opposite sides for that, the SNP need it to keep their supporters happy, Labour are the other way, could they govern together, yes, but the politics of the parties will have them trying to trip each other up, PR isn't going to help Holyrood if there's a spread of MSPs at the next election.
Labour in Scotland still has strong associations with the Orange Order if you want to talk 'tribal' politics- their turnout was probably low because they're over in Ireland setting fire to things.
As for the Herald being a reliable source of independent journalism - making out the SNP are in any way aligned to populist rightwing parties kinda undermines your argument.
How many list seats at Holyrood would Reform get with their 7% share?
If the votes are as cast in the GE - which of course they will not be reform would have 9 as above. What I did was just simply put the % vote at the GE and gave a seat share as if the same vote was the holyrood list vote
Over simplistic analysis of course but probably indicative
Starmer and Swinney met at Bute House today. quote from Swinney in the Guardian:
”I was pleased to welcome Sir Keir to Bute House so soon after his appointment as UK prime minister.
We continued our conversation about areas of shared interest. I believe there is an opportunity for collaborative working that can make a difference to people’s lives and I hope to work with Sir Keir’s new government to deliver progress for the benefit of people in Scotland.
Following our talks, I am confident we have established the foundation for a productive relationship between our two governments based on renewed respect for the devolution settlement.”
the usual smear that the SNP are the same as the far right nationalist and populist parties. The SNP are neither
I didn't say that - I said that populist and nationalist parties in Europe had accepted Kremlin-linked funding. Russia has a sustained policy of making funds and resources available to political parties and personalities that can destabilise domestic politics in hostile countries.
It's not a coincidence that George Galloway and Alex Salmond were paid for their gigs on Russia Today for years, and that Sputnik set itself up in Edinburgh with its first local hire being a nationalist activist.
Given the SNP's dire financial management, its current institutional weakness, and its predilection for being suckered by rich businessmen (see: ferry fiasco), they're ripe for an approach by spivs and spies. Hopefully they'll be able to fight both off.
SNP have clearly said they will work with Labour and welcome a labour government in Westminster
Have they? I looked around and couldn't find any sign of a welcome.
Labour in Scotland still has strong associations with the Orange Order if you want to talk ‘tribal’ politics- their turnout was probably low because they’re over in Ireland setting fire to things.
Rofl! Yeah, right. That'll be why the most Catholic, Jewish and Asian constituency in Scotland - Glasgow South - just elected a Labour MP. A shame, really, I bet Anas Sarwar would fit right in at LOL Pollokshields. Do you think he'd play a fife or the big bashy drum?
Have they?
Yes - repeatedly many times over decades. Long established policy. Work with a labour westminster government, oppose a tory one
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/24375338.swinney-snp-will-work-labour-government/
Just one example - now usually yo0ur knowledge if not your conclusions are OK but on this one?
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18025133.sturgeons-conditions-supporting-labour-government/
Labour cannot get close enough to a majority without the tories..
But they don't need a majority. They can form a government on their own or in another coalition with, say, the LibDems.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15270068.orange-order-elected-councils-labour-tory-members/
https://www.thenational.scot/news/17800171.labour-politician-fire-taking-top-job-orange-order
If you read the links above there does appear to have been a recent connection between Labour and Orangeism. I also remember some stories about Labour councils allowing Orange marches to go ahead, despite a record of violence but not allowing independence marches to go ahead in the same area on a different date and with no record of violence.
That said I come from I can remember times when there was a strong connection between catholicism and Scottish Labour or at least it was widely believed that there was a strong connection.
Yes - but even with the lib dems on these % they are too far from a majority for a minority administration. They would be 8 short. Thats just not going to work. I guess they could steal SNP policies and challenge the SNP to vote them down but I do not see a labour / lib dem alliance that is 8 or so seats short of a majority being able to get a programme thru. the first thing they try that the SNP does not support they will lose the vote. The only way labour would be able to get a programme thru is with a unionist grand alliance including the tories.
All speculation of course but I think this is highly likely.
The obvious coalition would be labour / SNP but labour will never do it. Look at the shenanigans they went thru to keep the SNP off councils. In Edinburgh 2 labour Councillors were suspended for refusing to go into coaltion with the toriees ( they deny its a coaltion but they gave tory councillors jobs in exchange for votes)
disgusting behaviour from labour.
Holyrood's going to be really interesting. I think Labour now they're in power might actually be able to overcome their derangement about the SNP and cooperate with them rather than going "people who agree with most of what we think and will work together with us to deliver what we want? We must never cooperate with them in any way, they sound like RIVALS THAT MUST BE DESTROYED. Time to make a deal with people who eat babies instead, that's definitely sensible"
I also remember some stories about Labour councils allowing Orange marches to go ahead, despite a record of violence but not allowing independence marches to go ahead in the same area on a different date and with no record of violence.
Can you be more specific about that? The big marches over the weekend were in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, where the councils are SNP and Labour respectively.
I think pointing at 2 or 3 councillors out of 1226 councillors across the whole of Scotland is a bit weak to say there are "strong associations" between the Orange Order and Labour.
Yes – repeatedly many times over decades. Long established policy. Work with a labour westminster government, oppose a tory one
Artfully ignoring the bolding, there, TJ, and betraying the SNP's tribal hatred of the Tories!
The obvious coalition would be labour / SNP
Why is that an obvious coalition? The SNP fundamentally disagrees with the Labour Party about the role of government and the priorities for the Scottish government. If they didn't, they'd be basically the same Party and they wouldn't compete in elections. You can't simultaneously believe that Labour and Tories are basically the same (as you have, many times) but also say the SNP and Labour are obvious coalition partners. The constant thread through your complaints about the Labour Party is a disbelief that they won't simply agree with the SNP and do what the SNP wants.
the first thing they try that the SNP does not support they will lose the vote.
Unless the Tories, Greens, Reform etc also support that actual piece of legislation. It's not too difficult to come up with policies that would be supported by the SNP and/or Greens and others that would be supported by the Conservatives/Reform. I don't think a formal coalition would be necessary.
If they work with the tories in Holyrood to freeze out the SNP like they do on Edinburgh council it will be the end of them in Scotland.
Sure if they are only a few seats short then a minority administration can work but if you are 25 seats short? Not a chance of getting a programme thru particularly a finance bill. On the numbers above even SNP lib dems and greens are not a majority - and labour will not work with the greens anyway
PCA - on everything but the constitution there is barely a fag paper between labour and the SNP - both left of centre social democratic parties. But labour would rather work with a very right wing tory party. Labours adherence to the bain principle ie just oppose everything the SNP do even if its labour policy has cost them dear.
Scotroutes - its all surmise of course but thats the sort of way I see the holyrood election going. Labour being too far short of a majority to govern without tory help, SNP and greens the same
"Can you be more specific about that?"
No ,I meant to put that in my post above.
"The big marches over the weekend were in Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, where the councils are SNP and Labour respectively." I take it you are referring to Orange marches here.
To be clear I am very much against the OO but I support their right to march peacefully.
Sure if they are only a few seats short then a minority administration can work but if you are 25 seats short? Not a chance of getting a programme thru particularly a finance bill. On the numbers above even SNP lib dems and greens are not a majority – and labour will not work with the greens anyway
you are putting an awful lot of thought into a scenario based on a different election, with a different electorate (16-18’s, EU citizens etc!) that uses a different voting system. Not to mention that there’s plenty of time for SNPs troubles to get worse, or perhaps better; labours honeymoon to be not so rosy, or have resulted in exciting shoots of hope; or the tories to have imploded further under a new leader (in WM and Holyrood), not to mention the potential for reform to fracture.
It almost certain won’t be a majority government of any party in Scotland as the system is essentially designed to make that unlikely. Most people I talk to want to see compromise and cooperation and will welcome politicians behaving like adults rather than tribal bullies.
I don't see any issue with a minority coalition running Holyrood. It happened before If it was a choice of an SNP or a Labour MSP being elected as FM the Tories would either abstain or vote for Labour. THere is no need for a formal Lab/Con coalition. The Conservatives just need to avoid supporting the SNP. A repeat of the Lab/Lib govt with supprt from other parties on an issue by issue basis.
Thereafter the potential problem is getting a finance bill through. If that hurdle can be overcome thereafter it is just a case of proposed legislation having the support of a majority of MSPs. The govt will need to work by persuasion and compromise rather than just bulldozing stuff through because they have a majority. That may actually lead to better govt than a strong minded individual surrounded by a small clique being able to push through any laws they wanted whether good or bad.
IRC / POly - I agree with what you say basically and yes its surmise and guess right now - but "The govt will need to work by persuasion and compromise" - not if you are 25 short of a majority and not if you have spent years alienating everyone and doing your best to wreck everything. Persuasion and compromise and co operation from Scottish labour?
Yes this is how holyrood is supposed to work but labour have refused to let it work like that.
If they work with the tories in Holyrood to freeze out the SNP like they do on Edinburgh council it will be the end of them in Scotland.
I'm not going to claim this is right or wrong as I have no idea how things will pan out. Just an observation that a very similar thing was said about Labour during/after the Indy referendum.
which reduced them to one MP and a huge loss of MSPs.
A repeat of the Lab/Lib govt with supprt from other parties on an issue by issue basis.
Labour and lib dems had a majority between them. On current voting % they will be 8 - 10 short now. Huge difference SNP minority governments had tacit green support and were close to a majority
which reduced them to one MP and a huge loss of MSPs.
I dont think any of us can ignore last week TJ. Nor the MSP voting intention polling that has them currently neck and neck with the SNP. That's a party that took a severe kicking, but not a party that was "finished".
Yes that is correct. My guess is at the next holyrood election labour will be the biggest party but even with lib dem support too small to create a functioning government. what happens next? MY guess is they will do a deal with the Tories to freeze out the SNP and that will be very damaging
Two sets of assumptions in there tho - so its just a discussion point
Two sets of assumptions in there tho – so its just a discussion point
Yep, interesting points too. It just stood out to me that "I've heard this before".
I suspect there's some differences between our two Westminster constituencies that result in different perspectives. Such as Reform getting 7.7% of the vote and double what the Lib Dems or Greens managed, almost triple Alba, and only 0.1% behind the Conservatives.
I have finnally had time to look at the scots results a bit more. Much as I suspect6ed the vagaries of FPTP have really mucked it up with labour the beneficiaries hugely.
Labour 37 mps on 35% of the vote
SNP 9 on 30%
Lib dems 6 on 10%
tories 5 on 12%
Reform 0 on 7%
Greens zero on 4%
I reckon give it a couple of years and the Starmer Govt will introduce some form of PR across the UK, and all the smaller Party's, including the Tories, will support it.
Yes the SNP got a kicking, but we did have a different 'battle' to win.
I may be mis-remembering but didn't Alex Salmond only get his first finance bill through with the support of the Tories? I'm sure they were after a commitment for 1,000 more police and AS was happy to oblige. Of course, he was also unable to pull the funding for the Edinburgh tram project as he was outvoted on that one by a "grand coalition" of all the opposition.
Both true Scotroutes - but that was with Goldie - a reasonable and able Tory ( as much as such a thing exists) and because labour and lib dems will automatically vote down anything from the SNP .
He did what he had to do. Thats how holyrood is supposed to work but labour refused to co operate on anything. Just concentrated on wrecking .so it was accept a reasonable compromise from Goldie or collapse the government. Goldie was also smart enough to make her price something Salmond could live with.
Again just makes my point that Labour have behaved badly in Holyrood. They could have had huge influence in Holyrood but squandered it all on wrecking not co operating.
On that first finance bill labour could have said - do this or do that and we will support or abstain - instead they just vote down anything the SNP want. Refused to even discuss compromise
Yes that is correct. My guess is at the next holyrood election labour will be the biggest party but even with lib dem support too small to create a functioning government. what happens next? MY guess is they will do a deal with the Tories to freeze out the SNP and that will be very damaging
I think there's a lot of water to pass under the bridge first and you might just find Starmer shows them how to lead not fight. I'd be amazed to see any formal deal with the tories, unless the next Scottish tory leader does the sensible thing and breaks the party away from toxic WM Tories. They are still fairly toxic from the Thatcher years north of the border, so probably a generation before they are partner-able at holyrood in the public eye without contaminating their partners. In a two vote system Reform should be able to do better, but I think that may overstate why people were voting reform in the first place.
If I was Starmer I'd promise a mechanism for a nation to decide to leave the union (probably with a high barrier like 50% of the electorate voting yes). That would flip the discussion from Nats bad and Unionist good to - Nats don't have the maths, but we've provided the route out if enought Scots want it - nobody is being held against their will.
