Scotland Indyref 2

bloody stupid - I voted yes 2 years ago but I'd vote no now. She can't believe in democracy like a lot of other remain voters. The UK voted, the vote ratio in scotland is irrelavent. She needs to get off this stupid vector and get back to running the country properly.

Currency will be an issue - though many thought hanging on to the pound was a mistake anyway.

Borders will be another. An EU Scotland and isolated Englandandwales will require some border control. That will make it particularly difficult for folk near the border that live/work on opposite sides.

And the "where is our largest market" argument favoured by Remain will also apply.

So - not very persuasive when those taken into account. However, Denmark shows that states made up of individual nation regions can be both in and out of the EU. Some compromise of that sort might be possible.

It's a tough one. Sturgeon is smart, very smart but not two years ago Scotland committed (by a much greater margin than the EU referendum) to remain part of and be bound to the UK.

The UK (partly due to low turnout in Scotland) has voted to leave. I didn't vote to leave, does that mean I can stay an EU citizen-no. I am bound by the result and Scotland should be too. I

How Sturgeon will play it though remains to be seen.

However, I can see the scenario where Scotland calling for a second referendum coupled with negotiations going badly on the actual terms of Brexit people having a strong call for a second EU referendum using a similar argument to the Scots-this isn't what we voted for...

Without rerunning the arguments of last time, but:

Currency: We do need a better answer on this, we should just lay out the options instead of saying that the first option is definitely the one that'll happen.

Borders: This'll be difficult, but it's a problem that'll have to be solved between NI and Ireland as well. Other countries manage to have land borders, perhaps the US/Canada border would be a good model, though that would need some kind of diplomatic agreement.

not two years ago Scotland committed (by a much greater margin than the EU referendum)

Not in Scotland, though. In Scotland (which is what matters for the vote here, not UK-wide), the No vote was 55% and the Remain vote was 62%.

[quote=dannybgoode ]The UK (partly due to low turnout in Scotland) has voted to leave. Ah yes - it's the fault of the Scots.

Ah yes - it's the fault of the Scots.

Yup, I've heard that several times. In reality, even if turnout in Scotland had been 150%, Leave would still have won.

The UK (partly due to low turnout in Scotland) has voted to leave. I didn't vote to leave, does that mean I can stay an EU citizen-no. I am bound by the result and Scotland should be too.

That kind of sensible talk has no place in STW lol

I don't get why people are demonstrating and getting upset over this. The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won. Why can't people just accept the result and get on with their life's, they can't do anything to change the outcome. Some people's behaviour is pretty pathetic.

Currency issue is the only hurdle now.

[quote=poah ]Why can't people just accept the result and get on with their life's, they can't do anything to change the outcome. Except they can

Currency issue is the only hurdle now.

The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won.

The basis of this argument is that you think the UK is one country. A lot of people in Scotland, perhaps a majority, disagree with you.

Imagine if a EU-wide referendum had been held on something. Would you have been as keen to observe the majority verdict then?

Oil is the main issue.

Could they offset that by benefiting from the Brexodus of businesses that want to stay in the EU?

Certainly it was discussed at my institute if Scotland still has access to EU science funding

I don't get why people are demonstrating and getting upset over this. The people of the UK voted in a democratic way and one group lost, one group won. Why can't people just accept the result and get on with their life's, they can't do anything to change the outcome. Some people's behaviour is pretty pathetic.

My current thoughts, if Nicola Sturgeon can negotiate Scotland remaining in the EU under the same terms as currently in place, e.g. no euro, same vetos, similar funding, then the case for independence is strong. Chances of her getting this? Near zero. Brussels has bigger fish to fry and I think she will be overlooked.

As for Scotland becoming independent then rejoining the EU, I don't think this option would be favourable. We'd have to adopt the euro, have no vetos, and be a long way down the pecking order.

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it's true colours and it's ugly.

Edit: I voted to remain BTW, but remain in the EU as it was. From Friday morning that EU ceased to exist and I'm don't like what I see in it's place or what I believe it will become.

Could they offset that by benefiting from the Brexodus of businesses that want to stay in the EU?

I'd relocate to Scotland if the tax regime was favourable. I suspect Boris may have a similar strategy in mind though.

Oil is the main issue

Wanting independence on the back of oil is extremely short sighted. It won't last even in my lifetime nor will the need for it.

And as for currency I'd take the Euro.

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it's true colours and it's ugly.

For that reason maybe he'd welcome them with open arms to really stick the boot into the English

It would be great PR to get another star back on the flag quickly!

[quote=kimbers ]

Oil is the main issue.

If the UKs economy tanks (as many expect) then the positions could easily be reversed. Add to that things like company relocation (financial services would be an easy one) and an iScotland economy [i]could[/i] look a lot brighter [i]even without oil[/i]

Wanting independence on the back of oil is extremely short sighted.

[quote=5thElefant ] Starting broke with the hope of turning it around doesn't seem very desirable.But if you're on a downwards trajectory as part of the UK, putting the brakes on sooner rather than later might be a good idea.

If the UKs economy tanks (as many expect) then the positions could easily be reversed. Add to that things like company relocation (financial services would be an easy one) and an iScotland economy could look a lot brighter even without oil

This is something I'd thought of too. But it would rely on Scotland never leaving the EU, a deal I don't think could be cut. I think Scotland would have to leave the UK first, then [b]rejoin[/b] the EU... and there are fair few other countries in that queue.

[quote=dmorts ] This is something I'd thought of too. But it would rely on Scotland never leaving the EU, a deal I don't think could be cut. Dunno. It would depend on the EU.

I think Scotland would have to leave the UK first, then rejoin the EU... and there are fair few other countries in that queue.

I don't think it would be a shoo-in, but political expediency might make some improbable things possible.

But if you're on a downwards trajectory as part of the UK, putting the brakes on sooner rather than later might be a good idea.

Does Sturgeon have a Boris sized ego?

Regardless and come indy ref 2, it's clear that the arguments and cases are going to have to be clear cut on both sides. Half truths, finger in the air type arguments are not going to wash. It needs to be clear what you're voting for...... that might be wishful thinking!

You say, @poah, that you voted yes in indyref0 and would now vote No. Within my circle of discussion friends there are a good handful that would go the other way, now, to remain in the EU. I was undecided before, but voted - suspect I would much more tempted to vote yes if time came.

[quote=dmorts ]Regardless and come indy ref 2, it's clear that the arguments and cases are going to have to be clear cut on both sides. Half truths, finger in the air type arguments are not going to wash. It needs to be clear what you're voting for...... that might be wishful thinking!
But haven't we been discussing (on the Brexit thread) how there are no absolute certainties? Either choice is predicated on lots of assumptions and what-ifs - e.g. if you just voted to Leave then you did so not knowing how any treaty negotiations would work out.

[i]The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing its true colours and it's ugly[/i]

I'd guess the MDs of BMW, Merc, VAG, Bosch, Miele, and maybe a few others have been on the phone to him already.

I was a no voter who voted remain , i was gutted yesterday and if you had put a ballet paper in front of me yesterday i would of voted yes in a heartbeat . But the more i think it appears to me that answering the questions about scottish independence became more complicated not more simple . Currency , borders , oil , the fact that the uk is the biggest trading partner not the eu all need clear robust answers .
Its also interesting how Nicola's language has been less certain than Salmonds

The Brussels leadership (Juncker) is now showing it's true colours and it's ugly.

Oh FFS the UK made its choice and idiots are still trying to blame the EU for the fallout, did you really not realise the EU would act in the best interests of an EU without the UK. The UK told the EU to **** off and you still expect it to come and cuddle and give you a peck on the cheek.

It's not a first-in first-out sort of a queue.

It may not be, but why would an out-of-the-EU independent Scotland be ahead of say, Macedonia or Turkey?

Also all states have to agree, how would Spain feel about this, with reference to Catalonia? Scotland remaining, or Scotland leaving and rejoining may set a precedence Spain don't want to set.

I think talk of a referendum is a bit premature. Ok most of Scotland wanted to stay in the EU however now by a majority (English or otherwise) we are out (that's democracy). Since we now find ourselves out would it not be a good thing to take stock and see where we are (it may be that being out the EU is not all that bad). So leave it 5 years or so to see how things pan out. But now we have wee Jimmy Krankie pushing her own personal agenda without to my mind the people of Scotlands interest at heart. Also if we split from the UK I believe the Spanish government would object to us joining (the EU) as they do not want the Catalans doing the same as us so it would be doubtful that we would get in anyway.

I'm asking here not stating but is Scotland not recognised by the EU as a nation and catalonia is not? Also with Scotland already being part of the EU would that not be easier to transition. Principally the Scottish government is asking to remain as per the wishes of the people.

Dunno Kaiser that is the problem everything is up in the air at the moment and no-one seems to have any answers.I suppose if we could remain in I would be up for that but if it meant going out with no certainty of what was ahead I would be against that.

Oh FFS the UK made its choice and idiots are still trying to blame the EU for the fallout, did you really not realise the EU would act in the best interests of an EU without the UK. The UK told the EU to **** off and you still expect it to come and cuddle and give you a peck on the cheek.

To expand on that, in or out of the EU it would appear you're treated the same. DC's renegotiation attempt is evidence of that. I'm only seeing the whole picture now.

Calling someone an idiot, directly or indirectly is less than helpful

But haven't we been discussing (on the Brexit thread) how there are no absolute certainties? Either choice is predicated on lots of assumptions and what-ifs - e.g. if you just voted to Leave then you did so not knowing how any treaty negotiations would work out.

I was thinking along the lines of Sturgeon could go to Brussels and strike a deal (or not) then then what's on offer would be clearer. They can be definite on the route, either Scotland remain, or leave and rejoin. Those routes are very different with different consequences

answering the questions about scottish independence became more complicated

This is a worry of mine too, everyone has a limit on their capacity for interpreting complexity, some lower that others. Simplifying the arguments may be demanded by voters but may not be possible. That's where the half truths and obfuscation could creep in

[quote=dmorts ]

But haven't we been discussing (on the Brexit thread) how there are no absolute certainties? Either choice is predicated on lots of assumptions and what-ifs - e.g. if you just voted to Leave then you did so not knowing how any treaty negotiations would work out.

Please God let the Scots go, they can have their independence, Westminster can stop subsidizing the country and Scotland can become Europe's problem instead.
This is an excellent week!

Scotland staying in the EU? Sounds a plan. That way I can still buy cheap bike stuff from Germany.

Please God let the Scots go, they can have their independence, Westminster can stop subsidizing the country and Scotland can become Europe's problem instead.

Yup, that'd be great - then you can find out it's us that's been subsidising you not the other way around. And good luck finding somewhere for the nuclear submarines you can no longer afford 😉

Previously, the EU said they couldn't speak to the Scottish Govt

That might not change, where's the motivation for a change from an EU/Brussels point of view?

That might not change, where's the motivation for a change from an EU/Brussels point of view?

The pragmatic one of trying to salvage something from the ashes. And the emotional one of wanting to stick it to England.

I think it's pretty sensible trying to stay in the EU and I hope they succeed.

Just because we've shot ourselves in both feet, doesn't mean they have to.

The pragmatic one of trying to salvage something from the ashes. And the emotional one of wanting to stick it to England.

Yes, but they be weighing it up against the precedence set by negotiation with a regional government.

Edit: That said I should look into the Denmark thing mentioned before, was this Iceland? Or Greenland?

Edit2: Greenland [url= https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/213189/greenland-could-give-hope-to-scotland-on-independent-eu-membership/ ]https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/213189/greenland-could-give-hope-to-scotland-on-independent-eu-membership/[/url]

I'm sure the E.U. would love to have Scotland. They love a lame duck.

sturgeon on bbc now.

basically saying, seeking to sta in the eu, will be having discussion with eu members, will be putting together a cross party advisory panel. and ensuring eu nationals they are welcome.

Incredible amount of antiScottish racism here.

It will be good when we are no longer shackled to a country with that attitude towards us.

I would imagine it's a given now that the UK situation has changed and I wish Scotland the best of luck. What's the point with crowing jingoism? It would be a step into the unknown just like brexit will be for us in England.
Those kind of sentiments are just as moronic as those from some of the brexit camp.

Edit: racism from both sides of the border in this thread already, can't you just be happy that each country is allowed to make a choice on its future.

Incredible amount of antiScottish racism here.

It's just banter, innit.

It's just banter, innit.

Bitterness / resentment, that some parts of he UK might escape the act of mass stupidity we've just committed.

There's another factor that just occurred to me: EU nationals living in the UK were not allowed to vote in the EU referendum. They were allowed to vote in the first Scottish independence referendum, so will be in the second.

That's 150,000 people now very likely to vote Yes.

Additionally, 16-17-year-olds were not able to vote in the first Independence referendum and were not able to vote in the EU referendum, but Scottish voting legislation has changed so they would be able to vote in a second Scottish Independence referendum.

Another very pro-EU group there too, also very likely to vote Yes.

[quote=bencooper ]The pragmatic one of trying to salvage something from the ashes. And the emotional one of wanting to stick it to England.

I've seen little sign of any desire for the former from Juncker et al (though plenty of the latter). Though the trouble with that assumption is that by keeping Scotland the EU retains some of the advantages of the UK being a member - whilst in reality IS would be fairly irrelevant. Scotland on its own simply isn't enough big enough for them to be that bothered.

Though of course there's also this issue:

[quote=bencooper ]Yup, that'd be great - then you can find out it's us that's been subsidising you not the other way around.

You have seen the most recent figures with the current oil price? 😯

add in the mass of people now thinking they've been done over... I think polls should start to reflect it soon enough.

aracer - Member
bencooper » The pragmatic one of trying to salvage something from the ashes. And the emotional one of wanting to stick it to England.
I've seen little sign of any desire for the former from Juncker et al (though plenty of the latter). Though the trouble with that assumption is that by keeping Scotland the EU retains some of the advantages of the UK being a member - whilst in reality IS would be fairly irrelevant. Scotland on its own simply isn't enough big enough for them to be that bothered.

Only 6 out of the 27 have 20m+.

plus I doubt sturgeon would be acting as she is without some sort nod through backchannels.

The EU looking to pile the pressure on to trigger article 50 would suggest they are quite hostile to brexit, so spliting the uk won't be an undesirable thing to them imo. They are looking to set a precident here. lot of people looking on.

[quote=seosamh77 ]If the EU isn't interested in countries with a population of 5 million. why do 11 of the 27 EU member states have 5 million or less population... a further 7 have 10m or less.

Of course the EU is interested in smaller countries - but there's no particular reason for it to be more interested in a small Scotland than it would be in any other small country, which is what was being suggested as a reason why Scottish membership would be fast-tracked (which would be required for some of the other assumptions to work).

The EU looking to pile the pressure on to trigger article 50 would suggest they are quite hostile to brexit, so spliting the uk won't be an undesirable thing to them imo. They are looking to set a precident here. lot of people looking on.

The EU central junta maybe - but I suspect they're about to get a reality check they don't have quite as much power as they think they do, and such a split isn't so desirable to some EU members.

Ie the EU isn't interested in countries with a population of 5 million

The Spanish attitude may change after Sunday. There's common ground between the Catalans and the Scots, and tremendous unemployment in Spain, particularly amongst the young. One may anticipate a protest vote. There is a new mayor in Rome from Beppe Grillo's M5S party, another in Turin. It's going to be interesting.

Why should indyref 2 give a different result? The 36% Scots who voted Brexit are likely to vote no.

Add in the fact the SNP oil riches claim from indyref 1 has been blown out the water. Add in the massive deficit last year.

How many of the 64% who voted Remain will decide the UK union where most of our trade and our family and friends are is on balance better than the EU?

Getting another 15% on top of the Scots Brexits doesn't look too hard to me.

Other thing to bear in mind is the current devolution deal is now more or less worthless, from both sides of the argument. When this process stops, it's only going to fuel the yes vote next time round I think.
I also think the EU will be more open in its approach this time, as the reason they would not discuss the options last time was they felt it was a constitutional issue to be decided within the UK. This time, a country that is currently in the EU and chose to remain in the referendum is now facing removal against the wishes of its electorate. I'd say this gives both NS and the EU a good reason to openly discuss the options and present them to the electorate if a 2nd indy ref occurs.
Other thing to consider is I imagine the EU would want to limit the loss of the UK as much as possible, if this meant an option to keep Scotland IF it became independent I think they would be keen to do so.
I guess we'll see.

FastYoungGit commented...

In or out what ever your view. I'm sure you ll be pleased to hear Jean-Claude Juncker saying we cannot delay the process and insisting we change prime minister in days (rather than following due process) as we owe it to Europe.

I think the point made was that the British voting public (rightly or wrongly) didn't want unelected EU officials dictating our politics.

This time, [b]a country[/b] that is currently in the EU and chose to remain in the referendum

Does the EU see Scotland as a country? I mean in a technical sense. Is it the same as Greenland?

Edit: Gibraltar and Northern Ireland may also be looking for the same deal as Scotland too

How many of the 64% who voted Remain will decide the UK union where most of our trade and our family and friends are is on balance better than the EU?

That 62% doesn't include the 150,000 EU citizens or all the 16-17 year olds who weren't eligible to vote in the Eu referendum but will be eligible to vote in the Independence referendum.

aracer - Member
seosamh77 » If the EU isn't interested in countries with a population of 5 million. why do 11 of the 27 EU member states have 5 million or less population... a further 7 have 10m or less.
Of course the EU is interested in smaller countries - but there's no particular reason for it to be more interested in a small Scotland than it would be in any other small country, which is what was being suggested as a reason why Scottish membership would be fast-tracked (which would be required for some of the other assumptions to work).

I'd say there's a bit question over whether it's being fast track or retaining membership, we aren't the ones wanting to leave.

[quote=dmorts ]Does the EU see Scotland as a country?

?

Of course Scotland is a country, and is recognised as such by, well everyone! The fact is is in a political union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland does not diminish or reduce Scotland's legal status.

Edit: What else could it be?

I think the last election was as good an indicator of the shift in attitudes as anything else. SNP almost across the board as voters realised The Promise was waffle and then we still ended up with the Tory. The EU vote another.

Edit: What else could it be?

Something that the EU uses as an excuse not to go along with Nicolas Sturgeon's ambitions, e.g. saying it is just a region

Under any test Scotland is a country, it's politically, historically, geographically distinct and has its own legal system, Parliament etc.

Why would the EU not want Scotland to stay in the EU?

Edit: What else could it be?

I'm curious to know Scotland's actual status. Not curious enough to Google it though.

[quote=seosamh77 ]I'd say there's a bit question over whether it's being fast track or retaining membership, we aren't the ones wanting to leave.

Well I'm not wanting to leave either.

You have the issue of timescales - it doesn't seem plausible that a referendum could be held and independence negotiated before the UK leaves the EU. Not given that Scottish independence is rather more complicated than the UK leaving the EU, and those civil servants who might work on the process are going to be rather busy.

Though the point remains that the EU aren't going to be so excited about retaining Scotland as a token of the UK - not enough to make special rules which could cause upset elsewhere. Don't get the idea I'm particularly against you doing so - just being realistic.

[quote=thv3 ]Of course Scotland is a country, and is recognised as such by, well everyone!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations

If Scotland is a region then what is England?

well see, aracer, no one can be certain about anything at this stage.

Under any test Scotland is a country, it's politically, historically, geographically distinct and has its own legal system, Parliament etc.

Currency? Distinct economy?

Start reading...

http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/joining-eu/index_en.htm

The 'Conditions for Membership' bit is interesting.

"a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competition and market forces in the EU;"

If Scotland is a region then what is England?

[quote=seosamh77 ]well see, aracer, no one can be certain about anything at this stage.

Well no, that's one of the big problems! See how the financial markets reacted to a potential IS last time, and I don't think an independence referendum is going to increase the certainty...

[quote=aracer ]thv3  » Of course Scotland is a country, and is recognised as such by, well everyone!
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations
br />

A Country is not defined by its currency, otherwise half of the America's that use the dollar would not qualify. The link to the United Nations, includes nations, not countries, and Scotland is represented by the UK.

[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country ]Country Wiki [/url]

[url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotland ]Scotland Wiki [/url]

I can't believe whether Scotland is a country or not is in question! 🙁