Road map for rejoining the EU

It's not going to happen; neither of the two big parties want it.

The EU have made it clear that there is no current roadmap available for the UK to rejoin, I don’t blame them as all the English EU mp’s  did was disrupt proceedings and act like dicks.

There’s another thread arguing the pros and cons of Brexit

Is there? Pros and cons sounds like quite a balanced debate. Are you sure?

Especially considering neither major party has any interest in doing so.

While I voted remain, and still would, the above is critical. If there was a referendum again tomorrow it would be 50/50 again. That split is reflected equally in both political parties too. Labour's left and the Conservative right, for different reasons.

I don’t blame them as all the English EU mp’s did was disrupt proceedings and act like dicks.

Funny, that's exactly what a retired Dutch EU civil servant said to me a few weeks ago. And now he's living in Scotland 🤣

If I had to live in England or Wales I'd be agitating for Scottish Independence on the basis that there's a chance to see how Scotland coped with rejoining and hoping the people of England would learn something useful.

I won’t vote for a pro-Brexit party.

That includes Labour, who I have voted for in the past and would otherwise consider voting for again.

Eventually they will get there. Hopefully in my lifetime.

The euro would be an impassible errrr impasse

Move north of the Scottish border while suggesting to all that Scotland should be independent, if it's such a burden on the rest of the UK. We can be the test bed for rejoining.

The euro would be an impassible errrr impasse

Judging by how f******d our economy and pound is, the Euro would represent significant progress....

irrespective of whether or not you think brexit was a daft idea it's becoming clear that those who seek to deliver it are either a) catastrophically incompetent, b) attempting to square an impossible circle or a combination of both. on that basis i think that in an election cycle or two we will see more movements made towards a closer alignment with the EU by the labour party. rejoining is a long, long way off.

We need to learn that the problems of this country are due to the tories and not the eu.
It’s going to hurt but we will get there eventually and be willing participants and not a bunch of sulky ****ers.

Any attempt to rejoin now, or even raise the question of rejoining, would more than likely reignite the fire and prolong the pain. I don't think there's any way out of it for at least a few years when people are willing to step back and look at it more objectively.

We need to learn that the problems of this country are due to the tortes and not the eu.

Jeezo, I mean, it’s not my favourite Cake but I’m struggling to blame Brexit on a Torte.

The EU have made it clear that there is no current roadmap available for the UK to rejoin

I dunno, I think it'd take a LOT of work from a united Government but I reckon the door would at least be open.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1583844916760748032?t=nbxpzMBgB4ioDcS1Knop5g&s=19

Well, Tory donor Guy Hands thinks we should rejoin the EU (or at least renegotiate a better trade deal).
According to Hands, "the first thing to do would be to admit that the Brexit negotiations were a complete disaster ".

We lost pretty much all the benefits we'd ground out over a generation in the EU when we left, we wouldn't get them back, and rejoining would just be more cost and faff for the UK.

I voted remain, as probably most did on here, but the reality is the minute we left it was nigh on impossible to return without costing the UK a fortune.

If I had to live in England or Wales I’d be agitating for Scottish Independence on the basis that there’s a chance to see how Scotland coped with rejoining and hoping the people of England would learn something useful.

You know England and Wales aren't the same country, right?

Came on here to say move to Scotland.......

Been beaten to it by a few replies up above

Realistically, I think the best we can hope for are closer ties but not full membership. The main problem at the moment is that those who have a "radical libertarian righ-wing agenda" are still in power and will be hoping to implement their nightmare by stealth (now that Truss's more direct approach has failed).

Roadmap would appear to be Scottish independence, Scottish rejoining and inevitably flourishing.

Meanwhile England, and by extension Wales being hammered being an isolated and insignificant small country ignoring the elephant in the room for another decade or two before coming back with its tail between its legs and asking, sheepishly to be allowed back into the party.

Bit like an alcoholic, there will be no helping it ‘till it’s hot rock bottom. Whilst there is still an NHS and welfare state to sell off, we’re not there yet - by a long shot.

We need to learn that the problems of this country are due to the tories and not the eu.

For all its faults, the EU was used as a cover for the failings of many UK governments of both major parties.

They can't keep blaming the EU for much longer, and will have to face up to their own inadequacies.

But I fear argee is right, we couldn't rejoin on the terms we had, and that needs to be taken into account.

I don't see one.
There is no political will; even if there was a recognition that there could be some merit in informal discussions between UK political parties about re-setting the relationship with the EU the fallout from farage/tice/ERG etc would poison them instantly - betrayal yadda yadda.
Earlier today a businessman interviewed on radio explained how damaging brexit had been for his business - increased cost and bureaucracy resulting in lost sales; next interviewee - that happened because you '...didn't prepare properly'.
As a summary of why any attempt to (partially) re-integrate will fail, that's as good as any.

Guy Hands comments, while 100% correct IMO, will be dismissed as those of a hedge fund manager wanting to further line his pockets.

The lack of understanding about the long lasting/permanent economic damage caused by brexit is concerning; too many people can't or don't want to accept that brexit isn't delivering the economic benefits it was claimed would result - and their view will never change.
As for the effect on culture - mate, what's kultsha?

Roadmap:

Two more years of Tories and the impact Brexit is having (there report on the food standards checks on imports this week was appaling, will try and get a linky)
Labour win, I'm guessing first suggestion will be single market
People see the benefits
Inch closer to rejoining, but I can see if being another 10 years before a firm mandate.

Hopefully people like that tory donor have sensible dicsussions in the meantime.

There is a reason none of the 2 big parties don't want it the Tories don't want it because it is their baby, Labour (I think) do want it but the debate is too toxic just now that they will choose to do nothing about it until the public start pushing for it and everyone is in agreeance that it was a crap idea.

You can only blame this government. If they'd had a brain cell between them they'd have implemented a good working/trade relationship with the EU long ago. You know, like probably the rest of the world have, who also aren't members.

Why do the Scottish think that as soon as they are independent they can just magically join the EU?

Would they actually meet the criteria or is it just more political BS from that one trick pony politician?

They'll be no rejoin in this lifetime and even if there were Britain will never get the favourable position it had.
It'll be interesting to do a gap analysis every 10 years. Ie. before Brexit the UK's GDP was 90%if Germany, now it's 70%.
Time to tax the rich pensioners who voted for it as the young have nothing.

Ironically, whilst it was immigration that supposedly won the Brexit vote, it may also be its downfall. With record levels of employment across many sectors we also have record levels of skills shortages. Companies can’t invest and grow without people and access to a growing market and this country desperately needs increased revenues and taxation. The UK working population demographic is about to fall off a cliff in the next decade as the post-war boomer peak reaches retirement and there simply isn’t enough money to pay all those pensions or enough care workers to wipe the arses of those who no longer have the faculties to care.

UK economy has flat-lined since 2016, only buoyed up by cheap interest rates and a house-price boom neither of which we now know are sustainable. Whilst COVID is a convenient scapegoat, the complete absence of a post-Brexit plan beyond a 3-word slogan is coming home to roost, particularly all those mythical trade deals.

That said, we haven’t reached the bottom and there’s too many in this Government, it’s sponsors and the media with a vested interest in perpetuating the lies.

Judging by how f******d our economy and pound is, the Euro would represent significant progress….

The two currencies will hit parity soon, so will be an easy transition.

Christ I remember when it was €1.6 to the £ because you could use a car speedo to convert.

Funny, that’s exactly what a retired Dutch EU civil servant said to me a few weeks ago. And now he’s living in Scotland 🤣

Back in 2015 I was a host for warmshowers cycle touring and had an EU senior policy member for sustainable travel staying for a few days, she took a sabbatical from the EU parliament and spent 6 months cycling around the UK to inform herself of the issues and I'm still in touch with her and have heard first hand what they thought of the quality of the elected officials, the damage done to the EU by the likes of Farage and his ilk is not be underestimated and there's absolutely no chance of the UK gaining entry, Scotland however could be welcomed back.

there’s absolutely no chance of the UK gaining entry, Scotland however could be welcomed back.

I'm no fan of the "they need us more than we need them" philosophy, but I think that's bollox.

I won’t vote for a pro-Brexit party.

That includes Labour, who I have voted for in the past and would otherwise consider voting for again.

Eventually they will get there. Hopefully in my lifetime.

I think it's a stretch to call Labour today pro brexit.

Labour today are very much avoiding the brexit debate because it is an election loser - simple as that. If their manifersto were to mention brexit in anything other than a 'make it work' guise there is no question the next election would, once again, be fought over brexit.

Personally I would trust Labour more to improve the EU relationship far more than Cons.

As a resident of Kent and a near neighbour to the M20, I'd be very gratified to see the members of the ERG and Bruges Group clear up after one of the all to inevitable accidents on the motorway of the like I've seen before being marched out to remove the bottles of trucker-piss from the roadsides.

I’m no fan of the “they need us more than we need them” philosophy, but I think that’s bollox

To expand, they EU will play hardball, but would definitely want the 6th or 7th biggest economy in the world (or 10th by the time it happens); a permanent member of the UN security Council; a v significant defence spender.

We won't get the deal we negotiated under Thatcher but as a net contributer to the EU would be v welcome...possibly thru gritted political teeth.

There's going to be no rejoining even if we had political will, the EU have realised they are better off without us so we're hardly going to get welcomed back, less so as a broken union.

Businesses did get notice to prepare for Brexit, but there was no indication of what that preparation should involve, beyond bending over and biting down on something so you don't scream.

A big point not frequently mentioned is that when we left the EU the dynamics were changed. We were a major member who was joined by others who was not as focused on the French's outlook for the EU. Internal politics have changed and will continue to do so. There will be egos to play on the EU side as well and I think any rejoining will have conditions of following a path that even most pro EU politicians would not have been comfortable with if we had stayed a member

There’s going to be no rejoining even if we had political will, the EU have realised they are better off without us so we’re hardly going to get welcomed back,

Wanna bet?

they'll have us back but the cost of entry is going to be suitably expensive (as it should be because we are dicks).

Rejoining the EU is a long way off, but rejoining the single market is more feasible. First, it would fix a lot of the current issues, including the NI protocol. Second, the referendum made no mention of leaving the single market - in fact one of the options for Brexit, after the referendum, was to stay in the single market.

Yep

We will be back inside the Single Market/Customs Union within 10 years. It's the economy stupid. Currently we're "only" 4% poorer as a nation, but that will widen. Still we have a £200m trade deal with Armenia. We will opt to be a poor man's Norway in due course.

We will opt to be a poor man’s Norway in due course.

Perfectly summed up. We won’t be rejoining the EU, but we need to sort out trade, properly. What’s coming will make that more obvious to more people. In their pockets. And it’s the only way to keep NI in the UK and for the whole Ireland relationship to be fruitful, rather than rip things apart by picking one over the other. After we get an election, the following few governments will “build on” on our relationships with the EU and our other neighbours… not further weaken them. Single Market/Customs Union it is… maybe hastened by the plan for an independent Scotland to move towards there first… minimising borders on the British mainland will then require it.

So far Scottish independance sounds like the best available option!

TheGingerOne
Full Member
Why do the Scottish think that as soon as they are independent they can just magically join the EU

They don't. They think it would be a process of negotiation between two parties acting in good will.
Signed
One of "the Scottish "

Ie. before Brexit the UK’s GDP was 90%if Germany, now it’s 70%.

This is based on a Mark Carney quote and it is wrong, UK and German growth since the Brexit vote has been pretty much the same.

I felt this was a very good point of view on rejoining. At least they explain that it was really only a few that forced the issue by threatening to split the conservative party.

in order

informed democracy.

a massive education campaign, that provides a clear-eyed, unbiased overview of the benefits and costs of being in the EU, that isn't run by the express, mail and wetherspoons. just data and verified facts. then, another referendum with exact options.

only then, armed with a proper, informed mandate, we join the queue.

 that isn’t run by the express, mail and wetherspoons.

Or shady companies targeting Facebook users with Ads based on psychological warfare techniques

There is next to zero chance of england rejoining. Even if they want to it will be vetoed.

Independent Scotland will rejoin.

Wales needs to decided where it wants to go

NI will become part of a united Ireland

Even if they want to it will be vetoed

No it won't

Are you sure about that?

English msps behaved so badly as did english politicians in general. Why would the eu want them back in?

I think the french would veto any attempt to rejoin

Why do the Scottish think that as soon as they are independent they can just magically join the EU?

Would they actually meet the criteria or is it just more political BS from that one trick pony politician?

Why?

Because the people responsible for deciding membership want us to join - that's it, simples.

Have you not been paying attention over these 6 long years - politics over-rides everything.

Are you sure about that?

Yep, the EU would have us back. They've said as much

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2021/06/23/brexit-5-years-on-we-would-have-you-back-says-europe-in-new-poll

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/brexit-was-loss-for-the-world-guy-verhofstadt/

Both Europeans and their leadership think so.

I think the quickest route would be independent Scotland > rejoins EU > makes the case clear by doing proportionally well vs rUK. In England Labour wins next GE and remains in power for 2 terms, gradually rows it back e.g by rejoining the customs union, then maybe towards the end of the second term they could go back in using Scotland’s success as the justification. Not saying any of that will happen, but would be the quickest plausible way I can think it might. I do think over that timescale the EU would welcome rUK back but not on same terms as before.

The eu beaurocrats may have said that but national leaders?

Im sure it will be vetoed

This is based on a Mark Carney quote and it is wrong, UK and German growth since the Brexit vote has been pretty much the same.

Not like someone of his level to quote incorrectly, but by my calcs (Google) in 2016 we were 78% the size and in 2020 we were 75%.

Quoted here too, but was he misquoted?
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/one-word-led-us-here-brexit-jonty-bloom/

"There is a sunlit upland out there. It is further away than it used to be and harder to reach. But at least we may soon stop marching blindly in the opposite direction."

If Scotland left the UK, it would take a further wait of 5+ years of stable economy, government & then a positive referendum before the EU would accept membership. In reality probably longer. Yes the EU would like Scotland to join, but not if it's detrimental to the EU.

As for the UK rejoining, it's going to be a 10year wait at least, just for the conversation to happen. For the same reasons above, & even then it would require a strong proportion of the population to vote for rejoining. Personally I can't see that happening - economic & social recovery from Brexit will probably put a 30<50 year minimal timeline for rejoining.

Westminster have completely moved on, they're not interested now despite it being detrimental to the economy. I've said it before on here, as a business owner that imports and exports, Brexit has been an absolute sh1t show. Like the OP, i / we see the direct implications that this has created and there isn't one single benefit that i have seen yet.

I reckon in about a decade the government will be ready to admit this has been a glaring mistake. As to how it will be rectified is anyones guess. At the moment we're in no position to negotiate a decent deal anyway....i mean, we walked away from a bloody good deal, but we are where we are.

I was at Westminster in the summer with the Department of Trade and Industry to explain in very simple terms how the 'oven ready deal' was anything but that. I can tell you hand on heart that the ministers we spent the day with did not care and have absolutely no interest in sorting this mess out - they genuinely do not know where to begin. It was so saddening to see the apathy and languid attitudes we were greeted with. Utterly disappointing.

We will be back inside the Single Market/Customs Union within 10 years.

I certainly hope so. I cannot see us attempting to rejoin as a full member (or being allowed to by EU members). The only route in the next few years is for a Labour government to push for stronger economic ties with free movement as a national necessity, and hopefully the scales will have fallen from enough Brexit-supporting eyes by then. Unfortunately, the only route to this involves enough economic pain on individuals and families to drive home the message that their idea of 'sovrinty' is not worth 4% of GDP year on year, and that the 'Brussels red tape' they wanted to lose was the only thing protecting theim from predatory employers and corporations.

I reckon in about a decade the government will be ready to admit this has been a glaring mistake

The EU won't move until rejoining is the policy of both Tories and Labour. It would be daft otherwise. Once that happens, it'll be on the cards again.

Krishnan GM on channel 4 news (before he was put on the naughty step) asked a shadow front bencher about rejoining and the answer was noncommittal but i see the very fact it is being asked on mainstream news as a positive because it really is a huge elephant in the room.
we know it’s a disaster, we know it’s unworkable and we know it’s damaging trade and business.
even those who sold the concept know this.
It’s just going to take the right person to say ‘hang on shouldn’t we at least reconsider this?’ then once it gains traction politicians will jump on that bandwagon as it’s a no brainer if the majority want it.

I think the conversations will start in a few not 10 years, Scotland, NI and Wales might just save our (English) bacon by standing up for themselves, not that they will think we deserve it.

The best time to start the long journey is by not leaving the destination in the first place. The second best time is now.

Not until most people decide there might be an advantage and it isn't clear cut enough. Trouble was on the day of the election we, well every single person I know was voting for either apples or 10mm spanners. Everyone I knew wanted to leave because of the legal/social/political reason whilst aknowledging the economic possibilities. We couldn't have one without the other so I, like my mates, voted with concience not pocket. I guesss thats the generation that wanted what was voted for originally.
Funnily enough isn't that what those who want a general elction now want?

Hang about. What has Scotland got to do with it? They voted to stay part of the UK. You can't be childish and say, "it didn't go the way I wanted so lets have best of three". Makes a complete mockery of any form of democracy doesn't it?

I think the conversations will start in a few not 10 years, Scotland, NI and Wales might just save our (English) bacon by standing up for themselves, not that they will think we deserve it.

As a Scot I'd rather be in the EU and I'd rather England, Wales and NI were too.

You can’t be childish and say, “it didn’t go the way I wanted so lets have best of three”. Makes a complete mockery of any form of democracy doesn’t it?

Tone is always difficult to convey in a forum like this. I'm trying to decide if you are being deliberately ironic.

I actually think that what will happen is that the EU will evolve over the next 10-15 years into this "concentric circles" model that Macron has been talking about. UK (or what ever is left of it) would be in the outer circle, getting some access to the single market (depending on how much freedom of movement we sign up for) etc but without the strong political ties.

That would be a much easier sell then "we're rejoining the EU". (Although there's a lot of work to be done on the French proposal to make it popular/workable)

All the "they won't let us re-join" stuff seems more than a little ridiculous to me. Of course it's not on the cards now, but how some randomer can seriously think they have any useful insight into what may happen over the next 5 or 10 years seems completely barking to me.

thecaptain
Free Member

All the “they won’t let us re-join” stuff seems more than a little ridiculous to me. Of course it’s not on the cards now, but how some randomer can seriously think they have any useful insight into what may happen over the next 5 or 10 years seems completely barking to me.

End of the day we were a positive net contributor to the tune of 9bn a year and it would be more without our opt-outs. Of course they would have us back.

I can't see us fully rejoining though, unless there is also reform on the EU side, for example the CAP.

Hang about. What has Scotland got to do with it? They voted to stay part of the UK.

In 2014 when the Unionist campaign was substantially a pack of scaremongering and untruths? Since then the majority of the Scottish electorate have voted for the SNP whose main objective is to run a second independence referendum as the country was dragged out of the EU against their wishes. It may have escaped your notice that we don’t live under a totalitarian regime where whilst government policy can swing in the breeze but the electorate are denied the opportunity to change their minds based on evidence?

Can't see it happening. Independent Scotland has little chance either as the country would be back of a queue I think from listening to the news. Then again Scottish Independence is a fantasy unless you leave sterling and have your own currency otherwise it's like a kid shouting at mum then asking for pocket money. Pro EU and independence by the way just zero faith in politicians and Nichola is just a northern version of Boris.

Independent Scotland has little chance either as the country would be back of a queue

There is no queue. Countries negotiate, rules are set and agreed, accession happens when criteria are met. This doesn't mean that the first to apply is the first to acceed.

If the UK applied to re-join they'd already be well on the way - until all the existing EU laws that still apply here are reversed.

Fascinating how British/English exceptionalism infects so many more than just those on the right.

OK you'd be front of the queue then. Can anyone answer the question on a Scottish currency. It's a genuine question that I've never heard an answer to.

OK you’d be front of the queue then. Can anyone answer the question on a Scottish currency. It’s a genuine question that I’ve never heard an answer to.

It's kind of a non-question to be fair. We already have the Scottish Pound, just now it's tied to Sterling. We could keep the value the same as sterling or have an exchange rate. Alternatively we could opt to adopt the Euro and have the same currency as most of our trading partners.

Um....I'm sure there's a separate thread for Scottish independence....

Um….I’m sure there’s a separate thread for Scottish independence….

Yeah, there is. I only mentioned it in here as a potential "encouragement" for the people of England, Wales and NI.

As a Scot I’d rather be in the EU and I’d rather England, Wales and NI were too.

My thinking was that another Scottish referendum and then a consultation period for rejoining could mean the compromise being offered by Westminster of ‘please stay part of the union and we will join the single market’
The unresolved border issue in NI puts further calls for frictionless trade with our nearest neighbours.

It makes so much sense to join the single market for the whole of GB.

While there is a separate thread Scotland and it’s pursuit of independence/E.U. membership will have big influence on GB’s entry to the single market.

As for the UK rejoining, it’s going to be a 10year wait at least,

Where are you getting that timescale from ?.