Referendum results ...
 

  You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more

[Closed] Referendum results (percentage) prediction thread 🙂

85 Posts
67 Users
0 Reactions
209 Views
Posts: 12329
Full Member
Topic starter
 

Just having a few texts with my dear old Dad, and we ended up guessing the percentage outcome of the referendum.

He's going 56-58% stay.

For shits and giggles, I'm going with 53% leave.

No, like NO rationale given, let's get the bets down for percentages.

I'll send a bag of haribo to the winner 🙂


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 6:59 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

67% stay


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:01 pm
Posts: 43345
Full Member
 

55:45 to Remain


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:01 pm
Posts: 19434
Free Member
 

60% OUT.

40% IN.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:03 pm
Posts: 36
Free Member
 

54:46 remain.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:03 pm
Posts: 3879
Full Member
 

69


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:04 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

57/43 remain


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:04 pm
Posts: 12467
Full Member
 

51.5:48.5 remain


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:05 pm
 LeeW
Posts: 2119
Full Member
 

52.2:47.8 remain.

I want to stay but there's a morbid interest in what would happen if we left.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:09 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

50:50 exactly 😉


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:11 pm
Posts: 7812
Full Member
 

42% in
42% out
16% want the lizards in control (surprise 3rd option on ballot paper due to error not spotted during proof reading)

55% in / 45% out if lizard option not available


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:15 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

61.2% in.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:15 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

In/out 50.1:49.9 there are a lot of bigots, but I still have faith (just!)


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:19 pm
Posts: 12329
Full Member
Topic starter
 

You only need to give one percentage for one outcome by the way; even the most dumb of us can figure out the negative side of the prediction 🙂


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:20 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

I only give 110%


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:23 pm
Posts: 7076
Full Member
 

51% leave.
52% stay.

Investigation into alleged "vote rigging" orchestrated by Berlin finds no conclusive evidence.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:24 pm
Posts: 28
Free Member
 

52% - 48% in favour of leave.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:35 pm
Posts: 13594
Free Member
 

99% Leave 1% stay

jambalaya


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:35 pm
Posts: 4143
Free Member
 

52% remain


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:38 pm
Posts: 8177
Free Member
 

76% IN


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:38 pm
Posts: 5727
Full Member
 

60:40 remain.
Although the thought of it getting annulled for vote rigging does amuse me a little


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:40 pm
Posts: 0
 

61% in

Scotland on its on 86% in.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:41 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

In: 43%
Out: 43%
Shake it all about: 14%


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:42 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

61% Leave 39% stay...
Actually I think it will be closer but then the Government and Brussels will somehow say the renegotiation can be revisited and they will create some kinda delay to any changes and eventually ignore the result keeping us in.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:44 pm
Posts: 341
Free Member
 

99% in 1% or less out are we talking about gay footballers still

if its that expensive pointless vote tomorrow, 65% in and the outs who cares what they think, theyve lost already, toys out of pram day on friday .


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:48 pm
Posts: 50252
Free Member
 

2500% remain.

Vlad.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:50 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

50:50 We will either stay or go 🙂

58 % Remain Really


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:53 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

51% remain

Lose on penalties in the quarter final


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 7:54 pm
Posts: 0
Full Member
 

63% IN
12% OUT

No one else could be bothered to vote.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:03 pm
Posts: 12467
Full Member
 

One hope of mine is that it will be such a narrow win for Remain that the threat of us leaving will linger, and allow us to push for reform of the EU, with a revisit to the referendum in a couple of years' time, by which time everyone will have put aside the petty mudslinging, manipulation of the truth and race to find the lowest, most unpleasant denominator, realising that as a nation we need to find the best way forward for all of us, resulting in an earnest and sensible discourse of the risks and the rewards, and an examination of the vested interests behind the key positions.

I know...


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:07 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

68% remain
32% leave

Based on latest bookies odds, movement of 'the city' and my gut feeling current poles are flawed by the fact of how much louder the leave camp is.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:14 pm
Posts: 41642
Free Member
 

58% remain

I suspect the knuckle dragging contingent won't turn out which is something the polls never get right coupled with a healthy turnout of "don't know" voting for the status quo.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:23 pm
Posts: 50252
Free Member
 

current poles are flawed

Racist.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:24 pm
Posts: 4607
Free Member
 

53% IN

['Please, please, please', he adds quietly.]


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 8:30 pm
Posts: 22922
Full Member
 

1 : 1.5 : 3

Racist.

keep up flashy - nobody's racist anymore. Its not the 1970s for gods sake. All the people who used to be racist are now [reads from prompt card] 'disillusioned with mainstream politics' [/reads from prompt card]


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 9:04 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

52% in . I hope.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 9:08 pm
Posts: 8
Free Member
 

58 IN
42 OUT


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 9:18 pm
Posts: 7857
Full Member
 

55% leave. 45% remain. Remain announced as winning anyway...

Seriously, I reckon about 60/40 in favour of Remain. I hope...


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 9:50 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Referendum? What referendum?


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 10:01 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

I had faith in the Scots and even more faith in the whole population.

62% IN
38% WGAF


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 10:32 pm
Posts: 85
Free Member
 

50-50. Civil War. Farage's brown shirts in the street fighting scientists. Tories and Labour living together. Mass hysteria!


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 10:35 pm
Posts: 8035
Free Member
 

56 % remain...

I have more faith in coomon sense amongst the UK population than the pollsters.

4/1 on for remain with the bookies...they rarely get it wrong in a 2 horse race.


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 10:51 pm
Posts: 19434
Free Member
 

C'est la vie


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 11:22 pm
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

In 45%
Out 40%
Stay next to 15%


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 11:32 pm
Posts: 17
Free Member
 

57 in
Turnout 73?


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 11:37 pm
Posts: 9136
Full Member
 

56% in

I want to stay but there's a morbid interest in what would happen if we left.

[i]I've[/i] got a bit of that going on, too. 🙂


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 11:39 pm
Posts: 101
Free Member
 

54% to leave


 
Posted : 22/06/2016 11:41 pm
Posts: 1751
Full Member
 

51.5% out. I do not have much faith in at least half of my fellow human beings.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 3:36 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

bencooper beat me to 50/50 so I'll go 50.2 out 49.8 in.

Doubt it'll be a clear win for either though, cue the lawyers arguing over the result 😥


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 4:17 am
Posts: 1641
Full Member
 

Like many others, I reckon a narrow win to stay in. 52%? Hope that it is more clear than that though.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:10 am
Posts: 17273
Free Member
 

My prediiction is that Leave will win in England and Wales by a very narrow margin 51:49 but that Scotland will vote Remain with a much larger 70:30 split and that this is enough to tip the balance of the entire vote toward the Remain vote. with a 51:49 split.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:19 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Will we get a regional breakdown? I hope so.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:21 am
Posts: 3184
Full Member
 

56 in
44 out


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:22 am
Posts: 14711
Full Member
 

I want remain but I reckon

52% leave
48% remain


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:22 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

I hope a lot more than 50% of voters decide to remain.

I'll go 65:35 to remain.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:24 am
 dazh
Posts: 13182
Full Member
 

A narrow victory for remain I reckon. 52%-ish. If you'd asked me 2 weeks ago I'd have said definitely out, but it feels like things have shifted since then. That may well just be the media biasing it's coverage, but besides that I only know a handful of people who are voting out and even though I live in a middle class lefty bedwetter bubble, that's got to count for something.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:32 am
Posts: 17779
Full Member
 

Will we get a regional breakdown? I hope so.

I thought it was going to be results by constituency, but it looks like there will be 382 regional areas.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:40 am
 dazh
Posts: 13182
Full Member
 

Will we get a regional breakdown? I hope so.

It'll be a interesting indicator of where all the small minded racist little Englanders are. Not that we don't know already.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:44 am
Posts: 3300
Full Member
 

45:55 leave, review of percentatges across Scotland pushing for a Scottish referendum, again, to leave UK and return to EU.

Border trench constructed to form the Sassenach Canal, and the relocation of the renfrew ferry for all travellers across the border.....


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:52 am
Posts: 4643
Full Member
 

51% remain after many, many, protracted recounts and judicial intervention. Actual result to be revealed at 03:17 on Monday 27th June. It'll go to appeal and we'll have to suffer the whole appalling shambles all over again in 18 months.

It'll be a interesting indicator of where all the small minded racist little Englanders are.

I'd really rather not know: I have a general belief that most people are actually quite nice.
edit:
Except Farage, obviously.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:56 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

56% Remain.

41% turnout.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:57 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

[quote=hot_fiat ]I have a general belief that most people are actually quite nice.

Apart from those who feel the need to insult others for their voting choice...


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 9:59 am
Posts: 4643
Full Member
 

hot_fiat » I have a general belief that most people are actually quite nice.

Apart from those who feel the need to insult others for their voting choice...

No I honestly do believe that most people are quite nice and will vote based on genuinely constructed argument, either way. Some people will no doubt vote purely because of misinformation, small-mindedness or racism and I'd really rather not know who they are.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:11 am
Posts: 25815
Full Member
 

I'm hoping it'll be clear-cut remain in all of the individual countries and overall 60% remain


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:16 am
Posts: 1014
Free Member
 

57 remain.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:18 am
Posts: 4111
Free Member
 

It would be more interesting and conclusive if you had to guess the number of voters voting one way or t'other. However as we're not, I'll guess 58.66% remain.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:22 am
Posts: 2653
Free Member
 

Will we get a regional breakdown? I hope so.

I hope not. That'll be another can of worms opened.
I reckon 51% remain. Living in Kent though, I am surrounded by a lot of leavers, which is a worry.....


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:22 am
Posts: 17209
Full Member
 

Less than 5% margin, so 52.5 in and 47.5 out or closer.

Turnout of 72%. Gove gone by tomorrow evening. Cameron to renegotiate the negotiated deal.

Biggest prediction: NOBODY will be satisfied with the result.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:22 am
Posts: 1688
Full Member
 

50:50 thanks to the Sun / Mail / Express readership which is scarey.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:29 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

@jimster01

The Mail is pro-remain believe it or not...

I suspect it's because they'll only be left with Cancer, House Prices and Weather at front pages if they lose the ability to moan about the EU.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:37 am
Posts: 1688
Full Member
 

@P-Jay - the Mail are quick enough to blame immigrants for wrong-doing BITD.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:41 am
Posts: 7932
Free Member
 

56:44 in favour of remain.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:45 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

Biggest prediction: NOBODY will be satisfied with the result.

Not sure about that, but nobody will be satisfied with post-vote plan, if it's out - there will be a 4-10-year exit plan to try to mitigate the pain, DC or Boris will want trade deals in place before we leave - we HAVE to have trade deals in place before we leave or we'll effectively be embargoed - the EU will want free movement to agree to a deal which goes against a lot of the Leave lot want, they’ll want us out by August and claim we’re dragging our feet. The IN people won't be happy at the loss and very unhappy when Black Friday / Mon happens (depending on the exit polls and early results) it will effectively prove the IN fears right.

If it's IN the Leave camp will be screaming about rigging and demanding another vote in a years time or something stupid like scheduled in/out vote every 4 years, the Government will have to be more openly Pro-EU, not just now – they’ll have to stop blaming ‘Brussels’ whenever something goes wrong, which will be hard work with the Murdock press slamming Europe whenever they can.

There’s almost a 3rd option. Someone this morning made an interesting point - the vote isn't binding, the Government doesn't have to do follow it, a very close vote to leave might not mean we leave – Dave could spin a line about listening to voters and restructuring a deal with the EU and as that was what Boris was calling for when he started it won’t be hard to pull him into line. UKIP will feel cheated, but Tory high command may decide that 3 years is long enough to kill them before the next election.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 10:49 am
Posts: 17779
Full Member
 

In case you are worried that the TV won't be able to pontificate on the likely outcome during the night, because apparently in votes like this exit polls don't work, see this.
[url= http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/19/eu-referendum-result-polls-britain-europe ]How to interpret the results[/url]

Sunderland needs to be +6 points leave for national result to be a tie. They reckon!


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 11:37 am
Posts: 0
Free Member
 

[quote=slowoldman ]Sunderland needs to be +6 points leave for national result to be a tie. They reckon!

It appears though that the likely margin of this vote is far smaller than the margins of error until a lot of the counts are in.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 11:41 am
Posts: 17779
Full Member
 

Well after weeks of being quite determined what I would do on the day I'm now finding myself undecided.

Do I go to bed and get the final result tomorrow or get in some booze, stay up all night and phone in sick?


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 12:15 pm
Posts: 11937
Free Member
 

60% remain, swung by high Scottish turnout.

(I think there'll be a high turnout in England too - I'm usually in the first handful through the door, but 30 or 40 had voted before me this morning. My wife had to queue!)


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 12:24 pm
Posts: 3396
Free Member
 

I think close, but not as close as the polls suggest.

55% in, and I agree that the Scots could play a big part.


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 12:32 pm
Posts: 4111
Free Member
 

....and I agree that the Scots could play a big part.

Why? There's not many of em!


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 1:02 pm
Posts: 932
Free Member
 

46% in or out.

46 is a good number


 
Posted : 23/06/2016 1:05 pm
Page 1 / 2

6 DAYS LEFT
We are currently at 95% of our target!