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just received
AuroraWatch UK amber alert, 2011-06-13 13:55:02UT.
which means
Amber alert: possible aurora Aurora is likely to be visible from Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland
false alarm!!
I dib't think so. I'm no completely sure what the graph means, but generally when the H component (black line) varies from the daily mean (blue line), there's a possibility of a show. More variation = higher possibility.
[url= http://aurorawatch.lancs.ac.uk/ ]clicky for graph[/url]
In terms of the graph, what you're looking for ideally is the black line to spike up above the blue line, then dive down towards the bottom of the graph underneath the blue line. The big coloured bars are just indicators of the difference between the black line when its below the blue line ... the more below, the bigger the bar gets and redder it goes.
So going by the current chart, the levels have dropped below average, and so its changed to an orange bar.
I'll keep an eye on it ... I may make a trip up the hills later on tonight if the graph keeps going down.