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If it does come down to a tory bun fight remember the last time this happened was a compromise candidate called John Major.
That turned out well. Probably laid the grounds for the current situation.
I have been watching the parliamentary debates - in between breaks in the snooker - and I have been intrigued by the standard of coherence or otherwise of the contributions. I wonder how some of those get elected as mps if they can hardly string two words together. Shouldn't there be a test of basic English written and spoken to be elected?
Best speeches so far have all been from SNP & LibDems. A few Labour and the odd conservative.
Funniest is Vicky Ford as her voice gets higher and squeakier the more angry she gets and she gets very angry. Even raises a smile with Bercow.
I was assuming you were joking
i was joking
1/6 for May on sky bet.
I'll go with May, if only to keep out the don't-care-whether-no-deal-or-hard Brexit mob.
Last night German colleagues were saying that the UK is making Italy look like it has an organised political thing going on.
I'd vote for Timmy Mallet. He'd whip them EU types into shape with his large foam hammer!
WacaMay?
WacaMay?
Is that a sauce to go with tacos?
Corbyn?
Whatever the result of the tory vote a group of hard brexit or hard remain tory MPs are going to be massively peed off. It's not inconceivable that they could abstain in a no confidence vote called by the labour party. This is all heading in one direction, the collapse of the government.
she’s been given an impossible task
This is absolute horseshit and I'm sick of the attempts at painting her in a sympathetic light. Sure, she didn't campaign for brexit in the first place but after Cameron resigned she applied for the job, campaigned to take it on. She either knew it was an impossible task but was sufficiently arrogant/delusional to believe she was capable of it, or else she was clueless enough to not realise it was an impossible task.
Or, more likely in light of her subsequent behaviour, she neither knew nor cared about the task, but saw an opportunity to be leader and thought "let's just get through the next week and see what turns up".
Sympathy? Don't make me sick. She has ****ed up the country for two years now, it will take years to unpick the harm she has caused.
Corbyn?
Whatever the result of the tory vote a group of hard brexit or hard remain tory MPs are going to be massively peed off. It’s not inconceivable that they could abstain in a no confidence vote called by the labour party. This is all heading in one direction, the collapse of the government.
Why would Labour MPs vote to carry the can for Brexit?
If Corbyn takes over then then will be the people will be able to say this about him:
"This is absolute horseshit and I’m sick of the attempts at painting her in a sympathetic light. Sure, she didn’t campaign for brexit in the first place but after Cameron resigned she applied for the job, campaigned to take it on. She either knew it was an impossible task but was sufficiently arrogant/delusional to believe she was capable of it, or else she was clueless enough to not realise it was an impossible task.
Or, more likely in light of her subsequent behaviour, she neither knew nor cared about the task, but saw an opportunity to be leader and thought “let’s just get through the next week and see what turns up”.
Sympathy? Don’t make me sick. She has **** up the country for two years now, it will take years to unpick the harm she has caused."
She either knew it was an impossible task but was sufficiently arrogant/delusional to believe she was capable of it, or else she was clueless enough to not realise it was an impossible task.Or, more likely in light of her subsequent behaviour, she neither knew nor cared about the task, but saw an opportunity to be leader and thought “let’s just get through the next week and see what turns up”.
Or in my opinion the more likely option, she looked at the competition for the job, considered the task at hand and decided she still had to live here at the end of it and career suicide was the better alternative.
In her place I'd have run for office, not because i think i could have made good of the whole debacle, but because I'm entirely sure the alternatives were to make the whole thing deliberately and immeasurably worse. It's very much a case of for bad to triumph requires only that no-one else does anything, and every viable alternative in that leadership competition was decidely a bad option. The outcome of the May premiership might yet end up the same as or worse, but one concession I'll certainly give her is it won't be the outcome she wanted, i can't say the same of the rest of the previous candidates.
I suspect the PM has the numbers.
She also knows that the Brexiteers are not going to get any other deal from the EU, so the only option to her course is a No Deal.
I don't think there's sufficient hard core Brexiteers to carry a candidate for that.
And what has any other candidate got to offer?
It will be interesting to see which names go up for this very poisoned chalice.
It will be interesting to see which names go up for this very poisoned chalice.
I expect to see BoJo in the running certainly, though i also expect to see his bid "torpedoed" again by saving him the trouble of winning but firmly keeping his hat in the ring for the next run off when there is a prize to be won.
I wouldn't be surprised to see JRM doing the torpedoe-ing leaving Davis or Rabb as the brexit candidate, either of whom can at that point say "I've done this already, I've been in that room, we'll get no more concessions so we're off without a deal rather than waste anymore time", that also has the "advantage" there is no deal for parliament to have it's meaningful vote on.
Wouldn't count on the spanish governmanet so much. Our current president is one of the most inept politicians of our era, that is president through a no confidence vote and alliances with our pseudo communist party. That statement is him trying get some rep with the other EU nations.
If you want to argue about scotland start another thread?
As for May - I think she is driven by a sense of duty and she saw it as her duty to try to get a brexit that was not too damaging and had some advantages in her eyes. She knows that the other candidates would not be able to do this. so she took it on.
She has come back with a deal ( given her red lines) that is far better than I thought possible and the EU have moved a long way - 'cos they too know that any other tory leader would be worse
I do think she means well on this - just the task is an insoluble one.
She has come back with a deal ( given her red lines) that is far better than I thought possible
I do think she means well on this – just the task is an insoluble one.
All things considered i think she's done pretty well too, the MayWay was a whole heap better than i expected but was never going to keep everyone happy all of the time which seems to be the bar that's been set.
Not interested in having a discussion about Scotland. I didn't even mention it in my post, but I am in giving some much needed background information to your statement-which I did. Taking any statement from the current Spanish government at face value, would be a grave mistake.
Ronnie Pickering
that also has the “advantage” there is no deal for parliament to have it’s meaningful vote on.
Not so. 'No deal' also requires a vote:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/parliament-meaningful-vote-brexit
That's why we're remaining. There's no majority for anything else.
I don’t think May has ever said “do you know who I am?”
Makes you think..
If May does go my bet would be a compromise winner - Like Major of May herself - elected by the tories to stop others like Johnson
Don’t forget Bojo , Rees Moog etc don’t have to throw their hat in the ring yet
They just need May to lose the vote.....
Changes things a bit as they can calculate a n other would fare just as bad and sit back till brexit happens in whatever shape,
Then put up as challenger after the next general election goes wrong
That’s why we’re remaining. There’s no majority for anything else
There's no majority for anything as best i can tell and, given the current trajectory I'm not entirely sure how we remain without some major change of course.
Not so. ‘No deal’ also requires a vote...
IANAL but your reading differs very much from mine, no deal is not a negotiated withdrawal agreement, section 13 specifically relates to a negotiated withdrawal agreement, it doesn't require that no agreement also get consent, it's mainly there, more is the pity, to ensure we don't end up with a remainer's brexit since the PLP would finally be forced to admit it's pro leave* and vote against any such agreement. Failure to ratify the negotiated agreement does not change the date of 29th March.
*at present it seems the PLP is simply anti gov't in honesty, they'd vote down the entirety of the PLP manifesto if May put it forward.
Wouldn’t count on the spanish governmanet so much. Our current president is one of the most inept politicians of our era, that is president through a no confidence vote and alliances with our pseudo communist party. That statement is him trying get some rep with the other EU nations.
Still better than the thieving PP scum that were in government before him. And I think May will probably win the vote, or possibly Rudd. I can't see any of the Brexit campaigners getting in, least of all that **** BoJo.
There’s no majority for anything as best i can tell
I'm pretty sure there *is* a remain majority in the HOC. In contrast we *know* for a fact there's no majority for the deal and no-deal is even less popular than the deal.
and, given the current trajectory I’m not entirely sure how we remain without some major change of course.
Easy. Tell the EU we can't agree and will have to remain. Present it to the Brexiteers as a pause for a rethink. Kick it into the long grass.
The EU are well aware the default is remain, that's why they're playing it the way they are.
Will be decided in the NY surely if there is a leadership contest, Parliament goes into recess on the 20th.
IANAL but your reading differs very much from mine, no deal is not a negotiated withdrawal agreement, section 13 specifically relates to a negotiated withdrawal agreement, it doesn’t require that no agreement also get consent, it’s mainly there, more is the pity, to ensure we don’t end up with a remainer’s brexit since the PLP would finally be forced to admit it’s pro leave and vote against any such agreement. Failure to ratify the negotiated agreement does not change the date of 29th March.
I take your point. I was perhaps putting too much weight on this:
This effectively gives MPs a further meaningful vote in the event they vote down the deal, allowing them to express a view on what should happen next. While any such amendments would not be legally binding on the Government, they would be politically significant.
...and frankly, if the only way forward that didn't require a vote was 'No deal' then brexiteers would be delighted and would have no need to try to put pressure May. SO I still think there is a pretty strong impediment to 'no deal' which must be that non-legally binding vote. (Of course, the referendum itself wasn't legally binding.)
The EU are well aware the default is remain
Only since the EU Withdrawal Act got passed it's not, it's leave. We're legally bound to do so, I'm not even sure there is enough time to table legislation now to change that before 29/03. VB [Victorious Brexit/Very Bad] Day is coming, agreed withdrawal or no, the sooner the remain majority of whom you speak get their heads out of their backsides and back the option on the table the better, at the rate they're going goldilocks will still be choosing her porridge when the bears come home and now there's every chance the deal will get pulled awayfrom them by some right wing leaveloony who manages to wrest control from May.
and would have no need to try to put pressure May
They're petrified she's going to come back with a acceptable deal, this is their main play to stop it, though the accelerated rate of this vote and the subsequent contest if indeed there is one, will hurt that. This is just filibuster, as in deed will be any GE Corbyn manages to engineer so he gets hard brexit and zero fallout.
Only since the EU Withdrawal Act got passed it’s not, it’s leave. We’re legally bound to do so, I’m not even sure there is enough time to table legislation now to change that before 29/03. VB [Victorious Brexit/Very Bad] Day is coming, agreed withdrawal or no, the sooner the remain majority of whom you speak get their heads out of their backsides and back the option on the table the better, at the rate they’re going goldilocks will still be choosing her porridge when the bears come home and now there’s every chance the deal will get pulled awayfrom them by some right wing leaveloony who manages to wrest control from May.
and would have no need to try to put pressure May
They’re petrified she’s going to come back with a acceptable deal, this is their main play to stop it, though the accelerated rate of this vote and the subsequent contest if indeed there is one, will hurt that. This is just filibuster, as in deed will be any GE Corbyn manages to engineer so he gets hard brexit and zero fallout.
I think Occam's razor supports my version: "Default is remain, Brexitters getting jumpy." rather than your's "Default is NoDeal, Brexiteers getting jumpy in case of the offchance that the Default doesn't happen.".
If we were close to a No Deal I'd expect the remainers to be more jumpy than the Brexiteers no vice versa.
However, my political predictions are always wrong, and it looks like you're right, no deal could legally happen in spite of a commons vote against it.
<mod>
Can we stay on topic please guys? It's probably escaped everyone's attention, but there's a short thread running elsewhere which is already discussing leave / remain and we don't need a duplicate.
Thanks.
</mod>
Just having a look at my betting app and in February this year I put a tenner on Phillip Hammond at 10/1 as the next Tory leader.
I still reckon I could win that, simply on account of him being the only person in the Tory party who doesn't appear to be absolutely unhinged
Tory party who doesn’t appear to be absolutely unhinged
And that makes him a suitable leadership candidate for the current Tory party how?
these MP's are meant to be serving our people. They are like a bunch of children when in the commons. Wish they would get behind the PM. I hope she stays.
If these rabble were children the lot of them would be on...
Seems she's safe for now, she needed 158 votes to be safe, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they'll vote for her and many haven't been asked yet.
Unless of course the Tory party is a den of two-faced vipers, who'll say they'll back her and then do her dirty in the secret ballot.
Will she come over all Corbyn and purge the unfaithful from the cabinet (if any Ministers vote against her) and then get the party to deselect them next election?
Unless of course the Tory party is a den of two-faced vipers, who’ll say they’ll back her and then do her dirty in the secret ballot.
Tory politicians saying they'll do something and then actually doing something else entirely would be totally unprecedented.
Seems she’s safe for now, she needed 158 votes to be safe, 174 Tory MPs have publicly said they’ll vote for her and many haven’t been asked yet.
If Australian politics is anything to go by, you don't nail your colours till you know it's on. There will be persuasive arguments in the room and more to trade as we go through the process.
But what that really means is currently about 100 Tory MP's do not have confidence in the government.
Will she come over all Corbyn and purge the unfaithful from the cabinet (if any Ministers vote against her) and then get the party to deselect them next election?
Unless they plan on doing 3 jobs not much hope with the other failures and disgraced in there.
But what that really means is currently about 100 Tory MP’s do not have confidence in the government.
I suspect 100pc of Tory MP's do not have confidence in the government. The problem is with zero room for manoeuvre beyond the obvious three options any other Government would be in exactly the same position.
If that wasn't the case May would have resigned after the last election and again when it was clear her flagship deal didn't have a majority.
Can we stay on topic please guys? It’s probably escaped everyone’s attention, but there’s a short thread running elsewhere which is already discussing leave / remain and we don’t need a duplicate.
Thanks.
I see what you're saying but the two things are intrinsically linked, it's quite dificult to have a conversation about a PM who's had a vote of confidence called precisely because of her negotiated Brexit deal, without discussing Brexit...
Her fortunes are still tied up with the whole Leave/Remain split in her party (and TBF the country as a whole) the referendum didn't make people magically agree, and given there was a 2% margin in it two years ago it's hardly suprising there's not really a clear way forward.
Win or Lose tonight, BoJo, Moggy & Co will keep stiring the shit. The point isn't to take hold of the party/country just yet, it's to maintain the narrative that "The People" (who desparately want a full fat Brexit) aren't being properly represented by their government, that the deal is closer to what Remoaners want, and the only solution is to replace May and Chums with some old etonians who really care for the common man's plight...
How low can you get? Charlie Elphicke just announced he has had the Tory whip restored (just in time for the vote) whilst the investigation is still ongoing over the sex offence allegations he was suspended for in the first place. No shame!
Some random things going on...
https://twitter.com/CharlieElphicke/status/1072887664720969728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072887664720969728&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
In case you are wondering
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Elphicke
He was suspended from the Conservative Party in November 2017, after he was accused of sex offences against two members of his staff; he is subject to an ongoing investigation.
Looks like confirmation the compromise is stays for Brexit, leaves after - so still no deal anybody likes
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1072881860055916545?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1072881860055916545&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-46533245
And what does Good Look Like?
And another one has had whip restored - Andrew Griffiths who was suspended back in July over sexting scandal.
I'll bet there will be a few honours dished out over the coming days as well.
Remember when politics was rarely in the news unless an MP has been caught having an affair?
I miss those days.
I suspect 100pc of Tory MP’s do not have confidence in the government
Well you can't say they're not representative of the general public at least.
174 say they'll support her, I'd be surprised if that doesn't whittle down a little in practice - it's not enough of a margin publicly at least look safe and therefore to keep the greedy from trading for positions in the subsequent cabinet - but sounds, thankfully, as though she'll make it past the post.
Someone earlier mentioned May's backers maybe forcing this early and, whilst I'm not sure they'd want the risk, i can see an outcome where this is pitched as "most want the deal so the dissenters need to shut up and get with the program"
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, says: "The bigger the vote against the prime minister, the more emboldened will be those minded to vote against her deal.
"If she has got over 200 votes, that can be regarded as a reasonable outcome.
"If much more than 100 Tory MPs vote against her she is going to be struggling to remain in her position for very long.
"100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her."
Some number analysis from the BBC there, 100 looks like a key number against.
And another one has had whip restored – Andrew Griffiths who was suspended back in July over sexting scandal.
They are shameless. That is disgusting.
They are shameless. That is disgusting.
Whilst i don't doubt there's a huge amount of electioneering involved i do wonder how much it's to do with entitlement to vote too, given they're technically still serving Tory MPs even if they're effectively sittingas independents.
So the full line up of contenders for the PM position are revealed.
Davros from the Daleks.
Mr Blobby
Timmy Mallett
The Sheriff of Nottingham
Pinocchio
Mr Burns
Kim Jon Ill
The staypuft Marshmallow man
Skeletor
Basil Faulty
Grotbags
& Murdoch from the ATeam.
Who have I missed?
@out of breath
If there's no withdrawal agreement, the Government will table a neutral motion; Parliament can amend it. This is effectively advice to the government.
But the UK will still leave the EU on 29th March, as that is a consequence of Article 50, which was approved by Parliament after Gina Miller's legal challenge. Whilst many of our MPs have reservations about Brexit, they didn't take the opportunity to debate them then and those arguments are unresolved.
And others could table a binding motion to revoke a50 which would =mean we stay in. There is a hge majority in parliament for avoiding a no deal leave
And others could table a binding motion to revoke a50 which would =mean we stay in. There is a hge majority in parliament for avoiding a no deal leave
Yes but we already discovered they are willing to put the results of the referendum over their personal views.
I can't remember a time when politics has been so interesting (I was too young to really understand the miners strike - to my shame). I would like to believe that a second referendum would be better as in more clearly discussed but I'm not really sure that is true
molgrips - but they also know that if the tories produce a crash out leave the tories are dead as a party because of the damage it would cause. If everyone but the tories and DUP vote to revoke a50 and the tories allow a no deal brexit then the tories will be blamed for the resultant damage. also it would only take half a dozen to vote to revoke a50.
Well listening to R4 on the way home i can't help thinking "Ken Clarke for PM"
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall"
Without doubt my favourite tory*
* not the toughest competition, in fairness
Yep, unshackle him and let him sort this out.
I read earlier that every time there is a leadership contest, the number of mp going against the pm is higher than predicted.
You have missed Diane Abbot from that list.
with number crunching skills like hers that is exactly who we neeed steering the ship through troubled waters
Professor John Curtice, from the University of Strathclyde, says: “The bigger the vote against the prime minister, the more emboldened will be those minded to vote against her deal.
“If she has got over 200 votes, that can be regarded as a reasonable outcome.
“If much more than 100 Tory MPs vote against her she is going to be struggling to remain in her position for very long.
“100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her.”
The vote on the deal was pulled because it had no chance of success so that's not telling us anything.If there are 317 MPs then both the above scenarios are possible so what does he mean?? Are those quotes out of context because they are contradictory and don't make sense.Some professor 😉
Or just he simplified it for simple people... lets just assume he meant over 217 shall we and consider the implications listed.
100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her
Are those quotes out of context because they are contradictory and don’t make <span class="skimlinks-unlinked">sense.Some</span> professor 😉
There will be a (substantial) number of abstentions according to C4, neither backing her nor condemning her.
Your shot.
100 MPs voting against means 100 MPs voted against her. But 200 for her is a reasonable outcome! Anyway let's not quibble yet and wait for the result
I’m really hoping she gets 165 votes, and gives the statement, ‘You lost. Get over it.’
‘You lost. Get over it.’
Plus
I like the stakes of it. Because yes, even most of the rapid brexiteers don't actually want the job, they want Theresa May to continue to fail to achieve anything, so that we can crash out no-deal in the worst possible way, that way nobody in the party ever has to take the blame for actually wanting that particular disaster and they can blame the EU.
But by voting her back in, they're specifically giving the party's backing, at this moment, to her and to her rubbish deal that nobody at all likes that she knows she can't get through the commons.
That's the sort of dilemma that I'm quite pleased to see these total arseholes stuck in. I feel like either option is similarly damaging for the country, so I'm quite hoping whichever they choose does maximum damage to the tories. Whether that's putting some bampot in charge so he can try and charge off the cliff, or zombie theresa back in charge so she can continue in her totally hopeless quest for a bit longer, I don't know.
She could theoretically win by 49-48 and the rest abstentions (I choose 48 because you assume the letter writers have the balls to follow it up)
It's not 'quibbling' - you are just doing the maths that 317 - 100 is > 200 and therefore suggesting she can have a good and bad result at the same time, when in reality there is third option and your maths isn't necessarily accurate. And criticising the Professor at the same time, who is very respected.
But yes, let's see. I'm not a fan, but I am hopeful she wins a landslide and puts the ERG bastards firmly back in their box for a long time.
But yes, let’s see. I’m not a fan, but I am hopeful she wins a landslide and puts the ERG bastards firmly back in their box for a long time.
My feeling too. Just who does JRM think he is?
Last minute predictions?
Higher or lower than 60 votes against her?
Higher, with about 20 abstain
I'll go with around 80-90 against, followed swiftly by 317 people saying they backed her at the vote.
C’mon lads
Has she been booted out ?
Y
or
N
Do you not have access to the news there??
N it would have been leaked by now.
Look, I come here for the shits n giggles and to get the News.
So, c’mon.
You lot are the experts... I value you opinions and insight.
I gather then it’s a N
Thank you and Good Night.
boooo!
200 vs 117 against...
200 for 117 against
200-117 so prof what's the implications 🙂
Tòooooooo slloooowwwwww......
100 MPs voting against her would imply that either ministers had voted against her or a majority of Conservative backbenchers have voted against her
About that, it's not a good result, if you want to be a dick about technicality she did not get over 200 votes. Over 1/3 of the people who do not hold a majority in parliament do not have confidence in the PM