[Closed] Place your bets, who will be next Prime Minister?

I think TM will win a confidence vote so will carry on as PM.

It'll be Terresa May.
Who else would actually want the job at this time and would have enough support?

Jeff

I suspect they will call the confidence vote in her and she will win it as all the rest of the candidates tossing into their hats right now are hated by the majority of mps.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/19/the-race-to-replace-theresa-may-the-likely-candidates

Absolutely terrifying that the choice appears to be out of this mob.

If says a lot that of those I’d pick Amber Rudd every day of the week, despite her recent achievements of killing the renewable energy industry and Windrush.

Tragic times

Kier Stamer. Not sure they will last long enough to.mail the members.

She'll stay as others have suggested, what other chinless twonk wants to put there name as the face of any brexit deal?

It was a hospital pass no matter the outcome, she'd be viewed as the face of a bad brexit deal/no-deal . Not really had much opportunity to do anything else as such a large task taken all their time.

Snap election after the brexit vote was the wrong call to lose majority.

Its official

Yep 1922 Committee have confirmed no confidence vote triggered.

Ballot at 6 pm tonight. SKY news.

Kier Stamer. Not sure they will last long enough to.mail the members

He seems to be one of the few politicians recently who actually seems ok. In fact, he's possibly the only one!

Sturgeon as the "unity" candidate? Hated equally by all the English parties? 😉

Kier Stamer.

Are the Tories crazy enough to consider Boris, Mogg, Hunt or Rabb?

It won’t happen. No one wants the Brexit job. They’ll let her carry on then make her the fall girl in a year’s time, when someone else has had time to analyse the outcome and prepare a plan to make The UK happy again.

TM, she'll win the vote I reckon.

I might move the 4 euros I had left from holiday to somewhere a little safer 😉

Going to happen very soon

Are you guessing or clutching at straws? There has already been overwhelming support for her, the last couple of weeks have proven not a single person has been backed to challenge her position and the required 49 signatures via the 1922 committee never realised .. despite all the raging who-harr buy the likes of lyingblouard and some other faceless halfwits in the Conservative party.

So, I guess this thread is open to wild card entries so I’m nominating.....

The bigger question is the next vote

Might want to put the wireless on bikebouy

She'll win at a canter. Won't even bother ringing around, I'd imagine.

Last gasp of the Brexiteer MPs. The likes of JRM and Bojo have been comprehensively outmaneouvered.

What Kryton said unless someone's feeling brave enough to revoke Article 50.

Last gasp of the Brexiteer MPs. The likes of JRM and Bojo have been comprehensively outmaneouvered.

Just a pity Cameron couldn't have done that three years ago.

what other chinless twonk wants to put there name as the face of any brexit deal?

Several have been lining up. Boris Johnson has even been on a diet and had a haircut to try and improve his chances. Amber Rudd is in the running and a couple others as well.
That said I think the chances are she will survive.

It won’t happen. No one wants the Brexit job. They’ll let her carry on then make her the fall girl in a year’s time, when someone else has had time to analyse the outcome and prepare a plan to make The UK happy again

This is my instinct too. No-one wants their name on the Brexit mess, Rees-Mogg has no interest in leadership and I'm not sure BoJo will get the support.

So yes, Keir Starmer.

May, the Brexiteers have got 46 letters, but they don’t have the numbers to finish the job. This is their last roll of the dice.

JRM and Bojo have been comprehensively outmaneouvered

Man, I hope so. Are we any closer to seeing their heads on pikes outside parliament ?
That'd make my christmas

I think may will win. Even if it by the slimmest of margins she will cling onto power.

I wonder if some may supporters put letters in to force the vote and end the speculation.

Let's not forget it was every single leave voter who caused this shambles. If you hear a leave voter moaning about this today you might remind them of this 😄

Youhave to remember the peculiarities of a tory leadership cntst.
One candidate - appointed in the commons
2 - vote amongst the membership
More than 2 - the MPs vote on the candidates to whittle it down to the final two to be voted on by the membership

Now the MPs hate Johnson and Gove and know Mogg would never be elected. So what the ERG have to do is make sure one of their candidates is the final two and hope that they can tickle the tummies of the membership - highly likely.

However the MPs will manoeuvre to make sure none of the ERG types get into the final two so expect 2 Candidates that are not ERG style nuts.

So I expect that the not so lunatic tories will conspire and manoeuvre to keep one of the ergs out of the final two. Probably by putting forward two reasonable candidates.

Javid is too brown BTW for a tory leader.

So yes, Keir Starmer.

Kier Stamer

Good choice apart from the fact that he is in the wrong party...

Man, I hope so. Are we any closer to seeing their heads on pikes outside parliament ?
That’d make my christmas

Oh, please, please, please, please, please!!!!!

what an absolute disaster, a weak opposition party and what seems a weaker tory party.
brexit was always going to be a daft idea short term.

anyone who thinks we have any power against europe to negotiate what ever we ask is deluded,
why they didnt setup a cross collaboration working party to get people on side i will never know..

i'm a remain'er but i want a stable economy and certainty, and so i just wish the deal was voted through, i don't want to have to vote again. just bloody get on with it, a word springs out to me "Satisfice"..
I then Googled the definition to double check. yes it definately works for me

"decide on and pursue a course of action that will satisfy the minimum requirements necessary to achieve a particular goal."

Good choice apart from the fact that he is in the wrong party…

You are making the assumption that this is the only process that will be going on. What is the chance of the government standing if she clings on by 10-20 votes?

She will win. The reality is there isnt anyone from team brexit who wants to take over. There have been a number of opportunities since the referendum for a brexiteer to become leader but none of them have actually done anything.

mike - 100%

Shamelessly stolen from Twitter:
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Last gasp of the Brexiteer MPs. The likes of JRM and Bojo have been comprehensively outmaneouvered.

This.

She'll win because nobody else wants the job. (She may not want to, of course.)

There's no majority for any deal that's likely to be agreed. There's no majority for 'No deal'. So we're remaining.

Keir Starmer isn't an approved Momentum candidate so he won't ever lead the Labour Party. (Although he's an RGS Old Boy so I hope he does.)

My Political predictions are *always* wrong.

Let’s not forget it was every single leave voter who caused this shambles.

I would go further back and blame the Tories for arrogantly thinking they couldn't lose the referendum, and framing the referendum poorly as a result.

tory leadership cntst.

Reported for swear filter avoidance.

So I expect that the not so lunatic tories will conspire and manoeuvre to keep one of the ergs out of the final two. Probably by putting forward two reasonable candidates.

We're not at a contest yet. She needs to lose this confidence vote tonight, which she won't.

I'm torn because a full leadership contest of 6-8 weeks would probably lead to the rescinding of A50, or at least a significant extension if the EU are prepared to humour us for a bit longer.

But the risk of the likes of Rudd, Bojo etc as leader is too apocalyptic to risk, I feel.

I would go further back and blame the Tories for arrogantly thinking they couldn’t lose the referendum, and framing the referendum poorly as a result.

That's democracy. You do what you have to do to try to win votes and if you think you're going to lose you really can promise anything. Cameron couldn't possibly have predicted a Brexiteer Leader of the Labour Party at that stage. Plus the Liberals made the same mistake in 2010. And Vince Cable called for a Referendum in 2007. It was a very common ploy to win votes at the time.

Nobody called him out on it at the time. Hindsight is 20/20.

She’ll win because nobody else wants the job.

This isnt true. They are still lining up for it especially Boris.
God knows why.

Looking at that Guardian list of potentials, my vote would go to the MILF, sorry I mean Penny Mordaunt.

In a statement in Downing Street, Mrs May said: "I will contest that vote with everything I have got."

So, she’ll resign about four o’clock this afternoon then?

He seems to be one of the few politicians recently who actually seems ok. In fact, he’s possibly the only one!

There are loads of MPs that are okay. You really don't see that many of the 600 of TV/radio, the ones that are invited are invited for a reason...

It'll be May again. If May doesn't come through it could be Give. Either way it's time for a Scottish exit.

Either way it’s time for a Scottish exit.

Sexit?

These dim witted half witts are playing games with mine and my childrens future, and yours.Putin is getting his way, destabilising the UK and the EU. Mark my words, he will be marching into the Ukraine in the next few months and no-one will bat an eyelid. Along as the masses have their next reality show to watch the world slides towards oblivion. Don your yellow jackets, and lets put a stop to this.Buggered if I know how though.

Scotch Eggsit.

Delicious eggsits...

It's times like this I am torn between caring and giving a shit (on the one hand) and feeling happy that I now live in Sweden.

Y'all are certainly living in interesting times.

https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1072622077621010433?s=19

Either way it’s time for a Scottish exit.

Because the one and only obvious takeaway from all of this is that "exit" is a good thing and will work out exactly as promised?

I'd hope May will win the no confidence vote this evening but regrettably I can't see that happening, too many small interest groups who think this is the route to Norway/hard brexit/referndum/remain to support her and a lot of folks who will think backing May now is tantamount to signing off on Mayway mk ii without seeing it, what ever that then looks like (mk i with a nice dress at a guess).

Bojo et al would be happy to be in the driving seat now, instant hard brexit, May's fault for 24 months of negotiations to come back with something unacceptable and leaving no time for further negotiations.

It won't end well.

Because we don't want to be dragged down along with our neighbours?

How does Independent Scotland avoid hard borders with a non-EU UK?

Because we don’t want to be dragged down along with our neighbours?

Would that it weren't the case but i think that ship has long since sailed.

How does Independent Scotland avoid hard borders with a non-EU UK?

Well that's easy, independent Scotland won't be in the EU either.

How does Independent Scotland avoid hard borders with a non-EU UK?

Cos there's no GFA mandating it. The problem with Ireland isn't the hard border itself, it's that the only solution to the unionist/republican issue was to keep both borders open, hence the problems.

iScotland will be in the EU. No problem at all. Even the spanish government say in the light of brexit iScotland would be welcome.

If may wins she can not be challenged again for a year. If Labour then win a vote of no confidence in the government that could make things interesting.

If may wins she can not be challenged again for a year. If Labour then win a vote of no confidence in the government that could make things interesting.

Pretty sure she'd resign under those circumstances

If may wins she can not be challenged again for a year.

Which is another reason i think she'll struggle tonight. I think there are a majority of Tory MPs who couldn't countenance another year under May that wouldn't have put in a letter yet but probably had it written already.

These dim witted half witts are playing games with mine and my childrens future, and yours.Putin is getting his way, destabilising the UK and the EU. Mark my words, he will be marching into the Ukraine in the next few months and no-one will bat an eyelid.

You think we'd have the troops on standby to stop Russia if there had never been a Brexit vote?

iScotland will be in the EU. No problem at all. Even the spanish government say in the light of brexit iScotland would be welcome.

Assuming all entry criteria are met and the members vote to allow it

The woman is a monster. At least a few people have made an attempt to get rid of her.

The questions are, what took the few so long, and what planet are all the other ones living on?

do we get to find out who sent the letters in ? it's also very odd the chancellor is never listed in any "runners and riders" lists (not that i've checked them all) He's also conspicuous by his absence.

I think the vote won't be directly be about Brexit. It will be about which leader will protect the future of the Tory party.

The questions are, what took the few so long, and what planet are all the other ones living on?

She's been a patsy.

Before i drag this further from its rails, have we got a live iScotland thread?

Brexit, Trump, Mogg is the logical progression,bring on the dark ages. 🙁

I think May will win and limp on further wounded. Then lose the deal vote, then win a vote of confidence in the commons leading to paralysis and a lame duck leader.

Mogg is the logical progression,bring on the dark ages.

then win a vote of confidence in the commons

That would be worth all this for the look on Corbyn's face alone.

Assuming all entry criteria are met and the members vote to allow it

This, plus I'm pretty sure new members have to sign up to the Euro. [1] Would Scotland want to be tied to a 'strong' currency like the Euro? Surely the Euro in Scotland would end up with the kind of mess Spain are in?

[1] Eventually. It seems to be another strict requirement that is ignored in practice.

We’re not talking about Scotland, this is a thread about replacing/potential replacement of a Prime Minister of the UK.

That, so you’re all aware includes Scotland.

My predictions for Timmy Mallett are looking more favourable as the clocks counts down.

The one thing you could never describe this whole period of politics as is 'boring'. I think future Historians will have to describe it as 'The Brexit Games' or 'That time a little island in the North Atlantic went insane for a couple of years'...

Personally I reckon the Tories should just go for BoJo. they know the swivel-eyed minority would love it, everyone else who's now more or less disengaged from politics (as it's become the preserve of shouty totalitarians) would at least have a bit of entertainment from it all as we sprial into the abyss. Plus BoJo would definately get along with Trump...
Moggy will probably score himself a stint as Chencellor, of a soon to be de-regulated economy, in order to line his and his mates pockets...

I'm so glad Dave decided to answer the "European issue" once and for all and unite the Tories. Sterling work...

I expect it'll either be Raab C Nesbitt or someone we've never heard of and didn't see coming.

Personally I'd like to see Cameron dragged back out of his holiday home to take some responsibility for the disaster he's wrought on us.

I wonder if she's ordered her Christmas Turkey yet?

Personally I’d like to see Cameron dragged back out of his holiday home to take some responsibility for the disaster he’s wrought on us.

He's still down the bottom of his garden.

the royals can't bang the squirrels sprogs out fast enough.

Given this mornings other news: Sir Dave Brailsford.

Incidentally, I partially blame Ed Milliband, if he hadnt stabbed is brother in the back I don't think we'd be in this mess now.

I partially blame Ed Milliband

I don't think that's going back far enough. I blame Kaiser Wilhelm. Or Napoleon

The woman is a monster. At least a few people have made an attempt to get rid of her.

The questions are, what took the few so long, and what planet are all the other ones living on?

I don't see her that way, awkward and a bit robotic yes and of course a Tory, but she's been given an impossible task to complete on a scale not seen in peace time before.

TBH, her deal did seem at least to be 'least worse' but problematic, the got into bed with the DUP to stay in government, which was a least 'less bad' than Trotters Up calling a referendum to stop a UKIP revolution which was never going to come.

Truthfully we'll never know what she's really like as PM, because her short reign will be a single issue one, but at the moment, as much as it pains me, I'd vote for her before a Momentum based Labour, but at the moment I'd throw my lot in with the Lib Dems.

Her total lack of empathy and real world experience led to the windrush scandal - and other utter messes from her time. There are deaths on her hands. Preventable deaths of UK citizens.

Monster might be pushing it - but callous is not.

Incidentally, I partially blame Ed Milliband, if he hadnt stabbed is brother in the back I don’t think we’d be in this mess now.

To be fair he wasn't expecting to win. I'll never forget the look of shock on his face when he won. Labour haven't had a leader who wanted the job since Brown. (And he *really* wanted the job.)

Then there's Milliband's Leadership Rule changes that lead directly to a Brexiteer leading the Labour party.

Significant unintended consequences. 🙁

I don’t think that’s going back far enough. I blame Kaiser Wilhelm. Or Napoleon

Nice. 😀

petec

Member

I partially blame Ed Milliband

I don’t think that’s going back far enough. I blame Kaiser Wilhelm. Or Napoleon

Really? - it's not too much of a leap of imgination to think that if Labour had a different leader they would have won the 2015 election.

edit. I was assuming you were joking, but am now not so sure?! [confused emoji]

Significant unintended consequences. 🙁

Indeed

Truthfully we’ll never know what she’s really like as PM, because her short reign will be a single issue one, but at the moment, as much as it pains me, I’d vote for her before a Momentum based Labour,

As it happens I think she'd have been a crap PM, but agree we'll never really know because of the hand of cards she picked up. And, yeah, as a near lifetime non-voter I'll be breaking the habit and voting exclusively to stop Momentum in the next election.