[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

I didn't imply or intend to imply anything, I added too much of someone else's comments in a quote box and that had caused unnecessary confusion. It's too late to delete the offending paragraph from the FT quote.

I don't think that any previous election results tell you that much about future voting patterns in an independent Scotland. However, I do think that the party with possibility for biggest % gains post independence would be the Tories, albeit in some new re-built form.

edit because of THM's edit!

http://www.adamsmith.org/news/press-releases/comment-an-independtheyrehttp://would-better-off-using-the-pound-without
A different perspective- not sure I understand all the ins and outs though..
I'm not saying we shouldnt take on our share of the debt but if they're refusing a currency union what next? Refusing a share of the assets?

How did the Tories fare in the Scottish elections?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011#Election_system.2C_seats.2C_and_regions

Scottish tories are better represented in holyrood than in westminster.

However, I do think that the party with possibility for biggest % gains

Wow someone has stirred up the Little Englanders

This is a good thing, when Scotland get independence they will be a 3rd world country inside of 5 years, we don't want them dragging Great Britain down with them!

But you can't afford independence - that's the whole point and there's no use trying to claim otherwise or claiming anyone who uses this as an argument in anti Scotland. The 'wish list' just doesn't stack up, simple as.

Absolutely no-one on either side of the argument is using "Scotland can't afford it" as an argument any more. Its too easily shot down with, you know, numbers and facts and stuff.

Here is the FT's recent take on it

[img] [/img]

All this is beside the point. Currency is not what independence is about its about self determination and about votes in Scotland counting in Scotland.

Well the facts are, that if Scotland keeps the pound (if the UK let them) then the UK will still be pulling most of the strings in Scotland (much like Germany is with Greece at the moment).

You really have to wonder if this whole independence thing is 'cutting off the nose despite the face'. Scotland ditches all the benefits of being in a union yet still ends up (through monetary policy) being controlled by the rest of the UK. Alex Salmond really should have though this through properly - but then he probably has, since his sole mission seems to be to become President of Scotland. I bet he'd appoint himself the King of Scotland if he could 😆

althepal - you read stuff from ASI and dare to post if on here! You are a brave man. Kirkaldy or not, that is pretty racey RW stuff for STW. Mind your back. 😉

IMO, the crux of their argument is the bit about who will be the guarantor for Scottish banks and for the Scottish government (the Selgin bit). Given the obvious future importance of financial services (over-importance?) and the future requirements for Scotland to raise its own debt (not that dear Nicola seems to realise this) this is a crucial point. Actually, to be fair to Strugeon, she knows this full well as does AS hence their proposal for a currency union in the first place.

Being the ASI of course they have to attack the non-free market element of the € zone ie blaming the ECBs roles as a lender of last resort on the crisis. Rather confused logic there and an element of mixing horses and carts.

In essence, they are taking a pretty radical stance by arguing that without a lender of last resort, Scottish banks would behave in a much more prudent way (banks, prudent? have you watched how they have lobbied hard against Vickers). They are very anti moral-hazard and would prefer banks to be allowed to fail.

Fair to say that this is a radical free-market proposal and one that I would expect to have little following in Scotland and in financial markets given the importance of banks to the Scottish economy and the sensitivity of the Scottish economy to its banks.

Still fun to see if the SNP take up an ASI gauntlet and run with it. Outflank, the Tories on the RHS!! That would be something!

Alex Salmond really should have though this through properly - but then he probably has, since his sole mission seems to be to become President of Scotland. I bet he'd appoint himself the King of Scotland if he could

Said in jest I'm sure as it doesn't really stand up to much scrutiny.

If Scotland is independent then we can vote out Alex Salmond whenever we like.

This is a democratic power we don't currently have over our Westminster overseers

Absolutely no-one on either side of the argument is using "Scotland can't afford it" as an argument any more. Its too easily shot down with, you know, numbers and facts and stuff.

Here is the FT's recent take on it:

Here's the oil industry's take on it:

[img] [/img]

Said in jest I'm sure as it doesn't really stand up to much scrutiny.

If Scotland is independent then we can vote out Alex Salmond whenever we like.

This is a democratic power we don't currently have over our Westminster overseers

So, still quite a lot of oil left then? And that's before opening up the west coast that had been off limits due to Trident.

Gives us a nice bit of breathing room while the renewables industry gets online - Scotland has some of the best prospects for renewable energy in Europe.

Hang on a minute. I've just realised something. We're having a Scotland debate, and nobody has posted this….

[img] [/img]

There. Fixed it. Honestly, this place is going to the dogs 🙄

^^^
Hate to tell you this Binners but that statue was removed recently due to the vehement dislike of by the locals! I live in the shadow of Wally Monny.

bencooper - Member

And that's before opening up the west coast that had been off limits due to Trident.

Hmm, could you tell me more about that or point me in the right direction? Googling not going too well.

There's obviously two sides to the oil question but (being biased and pro-Yes) I always think that the oil running out should be a spur to independence not a deterrant- the goose has laid 4 eggs that we didn't get the full benefit of, time to make sure we don't lose the last one. Ought to focus the mind on what we've already lost.

If we discovered oil resources tomorrow equivalent to what's (known to be) left in the north sea, that'd be a huge deal so I don't feel like being down on the fact that there used to be more. Some folks would have you believe it's all been "wasted" or spent on tax bribes but I don't buy that, it's been a huge boost for the UK.

So, still quite a lot of oil left then? And that's before opening up the west coast that had been off limits due to Trident.

This is nothing more than a rumour dredged up by the YES campaign to suit their 'oppressive English stance'. There is no confirmation that oil or gas do indeed exist in commercially viable quantities and it would seem that even if these rumours have substance that BP, a London based company who have allegedly completed a seismic survey would be the biggest beneficiary.

Gives us a nice bit of breathing room while the renewables industry gets online - Scotland has some of the best prospects for renewable energy in Europe.

This is true, but what is also true is that almost all of these resources lie in some of the most beautiful parts of the UK, valuable for tourism, fishing and wildlife. Would Scotland risk harming this by erecting wind turbines and building dams all over the place?

What should also be considered is the huge investment required to exploit these resources and the fact that most renewables companies are currently based overseas (the Danish being the biggest manufacturer of wind turbines for example). Huge amounts of outside and borrowed money will be required to develop Scotland's own renewables industry. Whether outside investment is forthcoming (due to the huge uncertainty created should Scotland become independent) remains to be seen.

Imagine what that find would do to the currency and Scottish exports - remember the 70s! 😉

bencooper - Member
And that's before opening up the west coast that had been off limits due to Trident.

Does anyone have any links to information to back this up?

Which bits are off limits due to Trident?

Why does Trident prevent oil exploration?

Submarines can operate quite happily in the North Sea.

V boats tend to patrol under the ice so they can hide, not off the West Coast.

This is true, but what is also true is that almost all of these resources lie in some of the most beautiful parts of the UK, valuable for tourism, fishing and wildlife. Would Scotland risk harming this by erecting wind turbines and building dams all over the place?

Also http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-22351395
http://www.snh.gov.uk/docs/A916597.pdf

Just to make it interesting, BBC breaking news is saying that all 3 main parties are saying no currency union... Euro or 100irnbrus to 1Buckfast ? 🙂

What is it we do with most of our renewable energy that we generate again?
anyway, back to my op.. this is about the only thing the No camp has confirmed so far and like someone else has said there's every chance the position will change in the event of a yes vote..

I really believe that this is just a negotiating position the no campaign are adopting. It will be interesting to see what Osborne actually says.

his is about the only thing the No camp has confirmed so far and like someone else has said there's every chance the position will change in the event of a yes vote..

Unlikely to change on that one I'd think having stated their case so firmly. A YES vote also seems very unlikely.

I really believe that this is just a negotiating position the no campaign are adopting. It will be interesting to see what Osborne actually says.

Believe what you like but why would he say it if he didn't mean it? This wasn't said as part of a NO campaign, it was said to try and put straight the ever increasing bluster coming from the SNP camp who are doing all then can at the moment to stir up hatred of the UK Government in the belief that portraying the UK Government as a load of bully English conservative toffs will increase their vote.

Yeeaaaahhh lets **** the English . . . . . . and also **** ourselves at the same time with this whole sorry process.

this is about the only thing the No camp has confirmed so far

Except the No camp actually haven't said it yet. What they've done is leak it to the media, who have happily and eagerly run with it. Apparently it's meant to be in a speech tomorrow - we have to wait and see if Osborne really does rule out a currency union.

If he does, what he's effectively doing is decoupling assets from liabilities - he's saying that while an independent Scotland should share in the debts of the UK, we should not share in the assets*. That's a pretty risky thing to admit to.

*and I'm sure some people will come along and say that Sterling is a liability not a debt - fine, add it onto the liability side of the balance sheet, it's still something that Scotland's population contributed equally to and should share in.

it was said to try and put straight the ever increasing bluster coming from the SNP camp who are doing all then can at the moment to stir up hatred of the UK Government in the belief that portraying the UK Government as a load of bully English conservative toffs will increase their vote.

So to counter the idea that the UK government is a load of bullying English Conservative toffs, we get bullied by an English Conservative toff?

Good plan.

I don't think this speech (if it says what it's leaked to say) is aimed at Scotland at all. I think it's aimed at little Englanders - "don't worry guys, we'll make sure Scotland doesn't get too uppity".

"Only 3% and 2% of those polled respectively said EU membership or currency was most important to them in deciding how to vote in the referendum yet our politicians see these issues as priorities."

It seems like Osborne might have picked the wrong subject to try to influence voters in Scotland on.Source is ScotlandSeptember18 a website set up to provide facts without bias.

Has anyone in the YES camp actually answered yet why Scotland would want to keep the UK pound, meaning that Scottish financial policy, interest rates and many other important decisions affecting Scotland would still be controlled from London? Surely this goes against everything that Independence stands for? Or would the SNP simply like to pick and choose the best bits of independence but still require lots of hand holding from the rest of the UK?

Has anyone in the YES camp actually answered yet why Scotland would want to keep the UK pound

Pragmatism

To be fair rebel, a yes vote is lookkng a lot more likely according to the polls.
I think this might be the reason the politicall gloves are coming off now...

So to counter the idea that the UK government is a load of bullying English Conservative toffs, we get bullied by an English Conservative toff?

He's just disagreeing with your point of view. [b]It's not BULLYING, it's called having a DEBATE![/b] Honestly, sometimes it's no wonder the Scots get accused of having a huge chip on their shoulder.

There's a lot of trade between Scotland and England in both directions, so it makes sense for both countries to share a currency.

The UK shared the pound with Ireland for seven years - and that was after a bloody war, not a referendum.

He's just disagreeing with your point of view. It's not BULLYING, it's called having a DEBATE!

A debate involves some kind of discussion, negotiation and compromise. He's not doing that - he's getting together with his clones in the other two main UK parties and issuing a decree.

If he says what it's leaked he'll say, of course.

It seems to be forgotten by both sides that the Irish Punt was pegged to Sterling unilaterally from the 1920s until Sterling was kicked out of the ERM...

The UK economy is looking at losing over 8.5% of it's value from only 7.5% of the population, the UK economy is looking at losing almost all of it's currently value natural resources (oil and gas) (Chinese coal costs mean mining in the uk is pretty much uneconomical)
The UK and Scotland would also be looking at exchange costs and the potential for massive tax differences (See N.I. when the R.O.I. whacked their corporation tax right down to get buisness for Dublin off London (and also look at how that turned out)

A currency Union on the above would appear to be in the interest of the UK as well as Scotland for internal trade.

Although provided a Scots pound was stabalised by asking the oil companies to pay us some of their taxes in Gold, Euros and US Dollars, my only real question is whether any of our bike shops could compete with Bike-Discount.

" worry guys, we'll make sure Scotland doesn't get too uppity".

I rather think its aimed at those - like me - who were both amused and concerned about Alex Salmond's absurd claim last week that the majority of the rest of the UK were happy about the prospect of a potential Currency Union with an Independent Scotland. Rather than having to have a referendum on that subject after a yes vote (& i do believe there would be pressure for such)they have simply headed it off at the pass.

I have no problem with Scottish Independence - rather the opposite - but I'm not backing up your experiment with my taxes.

I think a lot of this is really about English politics. Scotland doesn't matter politically at Westminster - our 56 MPs don't have much influence over anything.

But what really scares the hell out of Westminster politicians of all stripes is the SNP. Specifically the popularity of the SNP. The three main Westminster parties may have different names, but they're pretty much the same party - all right-wing, with identikit policies. The electorate doesn't really have a choice of different parties to vote for, and the parties like it that way.

But a decidedly left-wing socialist party that's very popular with the electorate? That's really worrying. That might give people in England ideas - like maybe they don't have to put up with ConDemLab clones. As the recent love bombing showed, loads of people in England really like the idea of a more socialist, egalitarian society and would move to Scotland in a heartbeat if we got independence.

That cannot be allowed to happen.

That's one reason i want Scottish Independence - it would really shake up UK politics.

bencooper - Member

But what really scares the hell out of Westminster politicians of all stripes is the SNP.

Not [i]all[/i] stripes- Nigel Farage thinks the 2 main parties in Scotland are Labour and the Tories. 😆

Alex Salmond's absurd claim last week that the majority of the rest of the UK were happy about the prospect of a potential Currency Union with an Independent Scotland

An absurd claim backed by polling:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/independent-scotland-should-keep-pound-ruk-poll-1-3249717

7 in 10 English people think an independent Scotland should keep the pound.

Ben, not everyone in the Union, or that survey, is English.

'keeping the pound' isn't the same as a formal Currency Union though is it? How neutral is the paper behind the survey?

Ben, not everyone in the Union is English.

Yes, sorry, that was sloppy.

A lot of the anti independence stuff comes down to the implication is that we Scots are too dumb to run our own country.

Many people here don't care what currency we use, whether we get get into the EU, or whether England will get an unfair share of the dissolved UK's assets, so long as we can get out of the union and live in a democratic country.

The fishing industry would love an excuse to keep the Spanish fishing boats out of Scottish waters.

Problems? We'll sort them and put up with whatever it takes.

I think a lot of this is really about English politics. Scotland doesn't matter politically at Westminster - our 56 MPs don't have much influence over anything

There was a certain chancellor and pm who screwed up influenced our country quite profoundly.

But Scottish people didn't put him there.

But Scottish people didn't put him there

So who on earth voted for Labour in the last-but-one election?

5thElefant - Member

The English certainly didn't.

Are you having a laugh? Labour took Westminster with 328 english seats in 1997, 323 in 2001! The english vote alone was enough to carry the country in all 3 of Labour's wins.

So who on earth voted for Labour in the last-but-one election?

There's a lot of trade between Scotland and England in both directions, so it makes sense for both countries to share a currency.

We trade with lots of other countries but currency union with them isn't going to happen 😉

The key issue with currency union for the rUK nations is sacrificing sovereignty to be part of a currency union with a separate state.

There is a general election in 2015 and the negotiations will be in full swing post Yes vote. Do you think the rUK parties will get a mandate for a "soft" negotiation?

The Adam Smith Institute has an interesting take on it, saying that Scotland would be better off using the pound without the permission of the rUK, and would have a more stable financial system than the rUK as a result:

http://www.adamsmith.org/news/press-releases/comment-an-independent-scotland-would-better-off-using-the-pound-without

I like the fact Clegg has said the policy is not for monetary union. Given the solidity of the lib dems we can conclude he'll u turn on this for a modicum of power anywhere.

The US and Canada have lots of bilateral trade, but no currency union. It seems to work fine for them. I think AS should just come out and be honest about it and say that it would be fine for Scotland to have an independent currency.

Keep up Ben, that was covered on page 5!!! 😉

The ASI will be getting some unusual hits and references on this one!

So now it seems that Osborne won't say no to a currency union after all:

http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/8727-bbc-scotlands-reputation-on-the-line-as-confusion-grows-over-osborne-currency-threat

Is this where we get to talk about blatant BBC bias again?

There's a really cool website I need to find again, which does a Wikipedia-style tracking of how BBC stories change over time. Because they have a habit of silently editing their articles.

Keep up Ben, that was covered on page 5!!!

I just come on here to rant - you don't expect me to pay attention do you? 😉

That article is very interesting.. especially in light of the fact I've just watched Reporting Scotland where they stated again that they're all going to be ruling it out again tomorrow!
interesti g that the Treasury had already drawn up some requirement/tests that they would want to apply before negotiating.. which is what Osbourne is actually going to reject!

They are-Underwrite each others banks- fair enough.
Allow taxpayers in one country to subsidise the other-eh?
Reach broad agreements on tax, spending and borrowing levels on both sides of the border- seems reasonable?

😀

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Like I said wait and see what Osborne actually says. Meantime he, Cameron Darling et al are treating us like idiots.

A bit like salmond and sturgeon then!!!

Stop trolling thm! (Edit)!!!

Be careful with your punctuation up there^^^^ or someone might think you're joking !!!

That's not even close to trolling, I don't do that. The book of dreams and the unravelling of much of its contents proves that AS&Co have been taking everyone for idiots. But under scrutiny they are being exposed. The SNP are past masters of shutting down dissent - you are not following suit I hope.

Scotsman article saying much the same thing today

Currency sharing was always going to be the Achilles heel of the Yes campaign. So it has proved. It may have been more politic to allow the currency sharing proposal to quietly collapse under the weight of its own contradictions in negotiations with the rUK government. But that would be to allow a referendum vote to proceed on the basis of a collective deception – a plan that few believed would work. And many in the Yes campaign have long suspected that “Plan A” would never work. What, then, would be the point of a referendum based on a premise that many of its proponents know to be false?

Sorry forgot the smiley face!
Fair enough- you have your opinion, I have mine.

And I respect and enjoy yours.

It will be interested to see exactly what GO says tomorrow rather than what the Beeb claim he is going to say.

As I said wait and see what Osborne actually says? The Westminster government says on the one hand it will not pre-negotiate they wont ask the EU for its position on Scotland becoming a member yet they criticise the Scottish government for not having this info which can only be accessed by the member state- the UK, and now they want to set out their position on a currency union which is surely pre-negotiating. The poll I quoted earlier (scotlandseptember18) said that a small per centage of those eligible to vote in the referendum find those issues particularly important anyway so it might well rebound on the no campaign.

The real issue is this THM, take a step to change the country for the better,the white paper is a list of postive changes that Scots could make with hard work and hard times ahead no doubt. Vote no or sit on your hands and you still get the hard work and hard times but the chances of reducing inequality,etc are vastly reduced as the westminster and economic elites are so entrenched .Scotland has for example done all it can to mitigate the effect of the bedroom tax. Can you see that happening in the rest of the UK after a no vote? Or will the Westminster establishment just roll on and on while life gets tougher for ordinary people of all the nations of the UK?

Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

The real issue is this THM, take a step to change the country for the better,the white paper is a list of postive changes that Scots could make with hard work and hard times ahead no doubt. Vote no or sit on your hands and you still get the hard work and hard times but the chances of reducing inequality,etc are vastly reduced as the westminster and economic elites are so entrenched .Scotland has for example done all it can to mitigate the effect of the bedroom tax. Can you see that happening in the rest of the UK after a no vote? Or will the Westminster establishment just roll on and on while life gets tougher for ordinary people of all the nations of the UK?

Not enough ranting, far too much of a sensible post.

SNP now saying they will renege on Scotlands share of the National Debt.
So, the first act of a new Scottish Govt will be to send a message to potential outside investors in Scotland that their money isn't safe in that Country? Well done.

The above puts in a nutshell the reason I,and a hell of a lot of other people, are voting yes. However it seems to be lost in translation over the border that you can be a nationalist without being anti-english.

SNP now saying they will renege on Scotland's share of the National Debt.

Perhaps the SNP always planned to do this, and the whole argument about "keeping the pound" has just been a smokescreen to get to this point?

Perhaps the SNP always planned to do this, and the whole argument about "keeping the pound" has just been a smokescreen to get to this point?

Maybe, but it's not the best message to send to money markets.

So....UKr insist Scotland not "guaranteed" any assets (calm down thm, not money) FAIR... SNP say "Ok then shall we call it quits on our share of the debt." FOUL. 🙄

Reach broad agreements on tax, spending and borrowing levels on both sides of the border- seems reasonable?

States are in competition for investment, population and money.

SNP now saying they will renege on Scotlands share of the National Debt.
So, the first act of a new Scottish Govt will be to send a message to potential outside investors in Scotland that their money isn't safe in that Country? Well done.

Defaulting on a debt is very different to refusing to pay a share of an existing debt. Outside investors may well be very interested in a country with no debts and massive natural and human resources.

So Osborne is going to make his speech in Edinburgh. That sort of bullying hectoring arrogance is going to do the Yes campaign no end of good.

Listening to R4 this morning and I am now even more confused.

So if the UK will not let Scotland have a currency union and they do not fulfill the requirements for the Euro yet, then what are their options?

Link to the GBP anyway until they are in a position to enter the Euro?
Why would that be so bad? Sounds the most pragmatic to me.

Or have their own Scottish Pound?

THM can you expand on the implications of the above?

That sort of bullying hectoring arrogance

How is stating a political position either bullying, hectoring or arrogant?

Given that, apparently, Balls will also be stating the same position, will you also accuse him of bullying, hectoring and arrogance?