[Closed] Osbourne says no to currency union.

Do you think rUK has no Plan B and would you like to level that criticism at them? Both sides are as guilty of that charge.

I think if iS want independance, it's up to them to make the case for it, not the other way round. Bit like asking a reluctant partner to make the case for divorce when they don't want the marriage to end.

so which way will you vote then even though you do not really know what you will get.

Well I can't vote as I don't live in Scotland. In many ways I'd like Scotland to get independance and offer an alternative to the Eton cabal that currently run the UK.

However, to get independance they need a professional in charge and whilst AS is very good at glib PR, he's in a situation where just saying 'Yes we can' won't cut it. I suspect the 2014 vote is almost certainly lost for iS now. (NB looking at the odds currently offered, all the bookies agree).

Good luck finding one. Or do you mean a website biased in the direction you prefer?

They exist. But pro union news agencies and pro independence websites are not them. Try abroad.

I prefer no bias in either direction.

What I usually get, sets the bullcrap detector alarm off on a regular basis.

I think if iS want independance, it's up to them to make the case for it, not the other way round. Bit like asking a reluctant partner to make the case for divorce when they don't want the marriage to end.

whilst AS is very good at glib PR

i get your point but really how can you just criticise one side in this

Both sides are equally culpable of much of the criticism but it is clear that the decision to NOT negotiate was taken by the UK [ which started this side bar] and still some blame AS. Its letting your politics decide reality tbh.

"Scotland’s Future: from the Referendum to Independence and a Written Constitution" is a Scottish government document

Sorry 😳
* https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/scotland-analysis-devolution-and-the-implications-of-scottish-independencet

No worries, it’s one of the things that grates on me a bit though, regardless of who initially said "no" to pre-negotiation both sides have agreed that it is the right thing to do before the signing of the Edinburgh agreement but the Yes campaign still try and use it as an example of Westminster bullying.

I think that AS is happy with it as much of what he says is unlikely to happen and he can just do aspirational pish to his hearts content whilst portraying rUK as bullies

I also think it is not great to say you wont negotiate then also say what you wont do which is clearly just as much an act of double speak. They will say stuff [ negotiate??] ONLY to undermine what AS does so their position is no more credible

Politicians being politicians Shocker.

Ben - Are you taking the piss? He's a convicted criminal!FFS!

So what? He's also a very good public speaker, and his conviction doesn't alter the facts of what he's saying.

(PS I think Ben Cooper is a No campaign agent provocateur who is paid to discredit Yes by coming out with nonsense :p )

They will say stuff [ negotiate??] ONLY to undermine what AS does so their position is no more credible

Hardly a surprise though. After all iS is wanting to leave the union unilaterally, you might expect some feet dragging / push back?

i get your point but really how can you just criticise one side in this

Well if the SNP really want to get a yes vote, I'd expect them do have covered all their bases and be ready for anything. After all, being out manouvered by Cameron, who is not a great politician, is pretty piss poor.

Is this bad analogy day?

[b]Every[/b] day is bad analogy day on STW.

Stolen gratuitously from the FT

Brings a new meaning to the term Scottish Widdows!!!

So basically you're saying he is like Hitler. OKAY I GET IT

Anyone who's got a criminal conviction is like Hitler? Okay 🙄

Just for you, I found a charismatic speaker eloquently arguing the case for No:

bencooper - sorry but you really are quite one-eyed when it comes to this issue. Any argument in favour of independence is accepted without being subject to even the most basic scrutiny. Any evidence presented that doesn't fit your view is automatically part of a conspiracy against Scotland.

It's weird because I always thought of you as quite a rational guy. Maybe it's just that I happened to agree with you about other stuff. 🙂

Maybe I just like messing with you 😀

just for you mr bowie

An interesting analysis in the New Statesman - by a professor from Chicago so perhaps less biased* than a Scottish source:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/02/flaw-osbornes-pre-emptive-strike-against-currency-union

*potentially

The article starts from the presumption that currency union is the best outcome for rUK, I think this is a big leap based on the BoE statement and the spending commitments in the BoD

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26383990 ]BA positive towards independent Scotland[/url]

That BBC never report anything positive?

Or maybe they just report when the big business has been saying, which just happens to be mainly negative.........

An interesting analysis in the New Statesman - by a professor from Chicago so perhaps less biased* than a Scottish source:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/02/flaw-osbornes-pre-emptive-strike-against-currency-union

*potentially

🙂

BA positive towards independent Scotland

Hardly, Willie Walsh just wants air passenger taxes scrapped and would back HItler if he thought it would help....

Willie Walsh just wants air passenger taxes scrapped

Exactly. The SNP has promised to at least half them and possibly scrap them.

So they are positive towards an independent Scotland.

Not sure what your saying there?

Interviewed on BBC Breakfast, group chief executive Willie Walsh was asked whether the airline was also making contingency plans for independence.

I found this quite bizarre. What where they expecting. Airlines to cancel flights to and from Scotland?

A Scottish government spokesman insisted Scotland would keep the pound after independence, as part of a formal currency union.

He added: "An independent Scotland will continue in EU membership, and the only threat to that is Westminster's proposed in/out referendum which risks taking Scotland out of the EU against its will, with huge consequences for jobs, investment and prosperity."

😆 - not exactly been paying attention has he?

Exactly how many more people are going to travel to Scotland to fly. Even with lower taxes? It's not like getting there is free.

<shrugs> it's win-win for him though - if reducing the cost of flights wouldn't result in more people flying BA just keep the price the same and pocket the APD. I doubt he cares about the impact APD has on the economy, simply the effect it has on his bottom line.

- not exactly been paying attention has he?

Perhaps he's been listening to a wider number of opinions, rather than relying on one politician who has his own reasons for what he said. Barroso isn't exactly an independent and impartial voice.

http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/mar/senior-european-politicians-dismiss-eu-scares

Hmm, so you don't think Scotland would leave the EU (and have to reapply to join) on independence? Could you provide a link to some senior EU official/politician confirming that?

How about the bit about keeping the pound as part of a currency union?

Melanie Phillips explaining independence to the Americans:

😀

@aracer - I think all these things will be up for negotiation. It's a unique situation - anyone who pretend they know how it'll go is deceiving themselves.

I think all these things will be up for negotiation. It's a unique situation - anyone who pretend they know how it'll go is deceiving themselves

you haven't read the BoD have you 😉

I think all these things will be up for negotiation.

Including things like becoming an independent country, yet managing to stay in the EU, which would require completely new rules?

Have you found a linky with somebody suggesting that will happen yet?

I think all these things will be up for negotiation

Ben - At the heart of the EU is the Treaty of Lisbon that has been, discussed, negotiated and argued over for several years before finally being ratified.

From the EU website -

Treaties are amended to make the EU more efficient and transparent, to prepare for new member countries and to introduce new areas of cooperation – such as the single currency.

Now a new member will be a major amendment to that and will be take time. So there will be a delay of at least a year or 2, probably longer for this amendment to be agreed.

I've decided that my favourite thing about the referendum campaign.

Is the ability of both Yes and No camps to claim the latest polls indicate growing support, regardless of what they might actually be saying.

Slightly off topic but ladybadger just came out with something that made me giggle... 'If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?'

honeybadgerx - Member
Slightly off topic but ladybadger just came out with something that made me giggle... 'If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?'

We won't be getting any internet from the south after independence.

The leaders of the Tory, LibDem, Labour, and UKIP have said a firm NO to any electrons or magic internet stuff crossing the border.

The SNP have a plan B though, and our internet will be conducted by semaphore and Aldiss lamps mounted on all the wind turbines. Apparently optical internet is the latest technology, so we'll be laughing.

We will have our own search engine called Weardafukizit.

our internet will be conducted by semaphore and Aldiss lamps mounted on all the wind turbines

To be honest I get about 0.4mb/s at the moment so that may well be an improvement!

Been away for a few days, 1700+ posts wow ...

[b]bencooper[/b] - Member
The point really is that Standard Life back plans for a currency union.

Should someone tell Osborne?

Standard Life: IMO this should be read as a big negative for an independent Scotland, basically SL has said unless there is a formal currency union it's going to leave Scotland (that statement by the way puts zero pressure on Osbourne to agree to a union, in fact it's an argument not to as SL will relocate to the UK). SL has said this as it's business (most clients outside Scotland including me 😉 ) makes no sense being located in a country with either the euro, a Scottish pound or a British pound but with no union.

I wonder whether they've costed converting all the .uk domains to .sco

Thought of that - it's why I've got http://www.kinetics.us 😉

'If we get independence do you think we could get google renamed as Dougal?'

Only if when you search "Hamish" it comes up with 'you'll have had your tea!'

basically SL has said unless there is a formal currency union it's going to relocate... as it's business (most clients outside Scotland including me ) makes no sense being located in a country with either the euro, a Scottish pound or a British pound but with no union.

2) the more of its business is outside Scotland, the less it matters what currency Scotland uses. Explain how SL would significantly be affected by Scotland using a euro, new currency or non-union pound.

@kona - 1) SL said they where preparing a contingency plan to relocate to the UK in the event Scotland voted yes and there was no currency union. That reads to me very clearly that a yes vote means they leave. Why would Scorland vote for independence then keep a currency and interest rates it has no control over. It may be "management speak" but I read it clearly that they'd be relocating.

2) It makes very little sense for a company to have most of its earnings in one currency (the pound) then have most of its cost base (employee wages etc) in another (Scottish pound, euro) - that to me is one reason but to the people whose opinion really matter is the SL management and they've told us already they are preparing a contingency plan due to the threat to their business.

1) that's not what SL said

2) SL and every other export-oriented business already does this - look at all the countries in which it operates in currencies other than the pound. The costs of a company the affected by way more than currency. And in any case none of that would change if Scotland carries on usig the pound, in union or otherwise.

@kona - yes it was what the company said, I've read all the direct quotes and the various press releases. SL believes an independent Scotland without a currency union with the UK is a material risk to its business. Your export analogy doesn't make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly, that's exactly why they've put this contingency plan in place.

Standard Life said the same thing before the devolution vote in 1992. They might well decide it's in their interests to leave, but the board of SL has already been seen to be dishonest when it comes to political involvement.

jambalaya - Member

@kona - yes it was what the company said, I've read all the direct quotes and the various press releases.

Perhaps you'd care to quote one then? SL have said they've prepared contingency plans but as far as I can see they've not said what you claim- that they will leave Scotland if there is no currency union.

SL pointed out the material issues which remain unclear including currency, regulatory framework and whether Scotland would join the eu on the quoted schedule. All of these are material risks to the company which they are seeking to mitigate by preparing a plan (and setting up the relevant uk companies) to move to the uk in the event of a yes vote. All 3 UK political parties have said there will be no currency union. SL have said they will move their business if there is a material risk to it post the referendum, the currency issue alone ticks that box.

Before the next Oscar is awarded ..

SL will also have a major issue with Scotland meeting it's target of joining the eu on the agreed timetable, this will have a major negative impact on its UK pension business unless the management of that moves to the UK and thus retains its status as a business domiciled and regulated by an eu member.

Project Fear are at it again I see with their relentlessly negative campaign. Oh no hang on...

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/03/scotland-powerless-independence-nicola-sturgeon-snp-uk

Ah so what you meant was, "SL haven't actually said this at all, but here's some speculation". Cheers!

grum - Member

Or maybe she remembers the cuts made by Westminster after the unsucessful vote in the late 70's. George Younger (the then Scottish Sec) had to go cap in hand as he feared civil unrest if he implemented the "revenge budget"

Bunch of polled questions in the Goniad.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/01/english-welsh-majority-against-scots-independence

That just looks like a middle England wish list.

Yep.

An online poll for good measure, no idea how well it was conducted.

Another Grauniad poll:

The Scots are more anxious than the English and Welsh about the effect of independence on the United Kingdom as a whole, and also worry about Scotland in particular. That is the finding of new Ipsos Mori polling on both sides of the border, which has been exclusively shared with the Guardian.

An outright majority of Scots – 52% – believe that a yes vote would weaken the pound, compared with just 32% of voters in England and Wales. Large proportions of Scots likewise believe that independence would reduce available public funds – 49% fear it would mean less public money in Scotland, compared with the mere 24% of voters south of the border who believe the break-up of the union would mean spending cuts in England or Wales.

Similar proportions – 52% in Scotland, 53% in England and Wales – believe that the Scottish economy would be negatively affected by independence.

Scottish voters say departure would have graver effects for the UK as a whole than do their English counterparts. A Scottish majority of 57%, compared with just 43% of English and Welsh voters, believe the UK economy would be damaged; 51% of Scots believe the UK's standing in the world would decline, a view shared by only 40% of voters south of the border.

More Scots (63%) than English and Welsh (50%) feel that independence would lead to a worsening relationship between Edinburgh and the residual UK. Among Scots, 47% expect that political independence would weaken north-south cultural ties, compared with only 37% who fear that in England and Wales.

Polling method

The Scottish results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents (adults aged over 16) conducted by telephone 20-25 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population, England and Wales results are based on a survey of 1,012 respondents (adults aged 18-plus) across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 1-3 February 2014. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/mar/03/scottish-anxiety-independence-revealed-poll

[img] [/img]

I guess project fantasy still have some work to do!

It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

Some more quality politics

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/alex-salmond-facing-aberdeen-council-ban-1-3327016

It looks like the Dec poll was of 101% of a selection of the population.

Would you prefer them to round the figures incorrectly, or provide accuracy far greater than the experimental error?

[IMG] [/IMG]

To be fair, England winning the World Cup is on the list of things less likely than Scotland voting yes to independence.

Beveridge and Hughes Hallett on currency union.
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/scotland-26449042 ]Plan A is correct[/url]
They are both critical of Paul Krugman about 4 minutes in.

Thanks for that post Gordi - I watched first 10 mins but need to go now. I will try to watch it all later.

AS should not HH's opening words - all currency options have pros and cons - ie, you cant pretent that you only have the pro's!!! He was "clever" when discussing risk-sharing!!!

There will be some on here unhappy with Beveridges conclusion that ultimately the economics will trump the politics!!

The main gist still seems (1) Plan A is correct for Scotland and (2) admitting that there is a Plan B is poor negotiating. IMO, they have got this wrong!!

Not admitting there is a plan B, when the people who would need to agree a plan A have ruled it out would appear to be poor negotiating. I note that it doesn't matter how much they might say plan A is in the best interests of rUK if those in rUK happen to disagree.

Currency union is not going to happen. It would not be in the interest of the UK and would never make it past a referendum.

[url= http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/02/16/opposition-currency-union-rises-sharply-england-an/ ]Opposition to currency union rises sharply[/url]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26455655

I suspect both sides will see this as good news...

[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/brown-to-step-out-of-shadows-in-fight-for-the-union.23613950 ]Massive boost for Yes Scotland[/url]

Massive boost for Yes Scotland

I assume this is some sort of funny joke referring to Gordon Brown's huge lack of popularity in Scotland ?

Despite clear evidence which suggests a completely different reality ?

At the last general election the Labour Party in Scotland, under Gordon Brown's leadership, received more than twice the number of votes of its nearest rival.

And Gordon Brown's personal vote in the Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath constituency was almost five times greater than that of his nearest rival (the SNP)

We didn't vote for Blair either apparently.

looks like the Scots are off

[img] ?w=150&h=136[/img]

AS is going to get his dream

I assume this is some sort of funny joke

ooh, check you out mr grumpy pants

So I did get that right - it was a joke ?

Ha ha .....it's funny cause it's not true, right ?

Very good ! 🙂

Why worry about a bloke who describes HIMSELF as an ex-politician, who rarely votes and who speaks approx 1 a year in the HoC (at least that is normally on constituency matters)? TBF, his genuine charitable donations mark him above another similar ex-politician.

So wee eck's "friends in EU" are bullying again with reminding him how laws work. How will he twist this one? It's great not to be over-exposed to the auld friends at Gogarburn, perhaps?

In dear leaders 2008 "arc of prosperity" speech, RBS and HBOS were considered Scottish. They are not now, as they are damaged goods.

Your export analogy doesn't make sense in this case. Retail financial services rely on relatively thin margins, an adverse move between the Scottish currency and the pound would wipe out its profits very quickly,

It wasn't an export analogy by the way - the provision of financial products overseas is an export.

Global banking group 'astonished' at Scottish Govt's inability to form a coherent currency policy :-

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26489307

although they do say Scotland welching on debt would benefit Scotland in the short term.

Legally independent Scotland has no debt to renege on.

..or currency.

If Scotland doesn't take on any debt then the UK does not share any assets with it. No military equipment, no embassies, no share of gold reserves etc. The UK can string out negotiations for as long as we want. Small countries do not bully big countries.

Small countries do not bully big countries

Especially ones with strategically important naval bases to protect 😆

fasternotfatter - Member
...Small countries do not bully big countries.

I'm sure the Iraqis would be delighted to hear that...

Replacing trident would be hugely expensive and no longer having a base to operate from would be the ideal time to decommission trident. So a significant saving to the UK taxpayer, a loss of 6500 jobs and a massive bill to clean up Faslane for Scotland.
Small countries do not bully big countries. You take your share of the debt or you get nothing else.

fasternotfatter - Member
...You take your share of the debt or you get nothing else.

Taking a share of the debt was always the intention. This has been stated time after time.

My understanding is that the debt is issued by the UK's national bank, which is called the Bank of England. So if we are not to get our share of that property, why should we assume our share of its debts?

Most of us would be quite happy not to share in it if it meant we came into independence debt free. Simple, we share we take a share of the debt, you keep it all you keep all the debt. However, that's England's choice on how that goes, not ours.

And talking about small countries, just remember in about 3 or 4 years time you're going to be the small country isolated on the edge of Europe with your UKIP govt, while Scotland will be a member of the EU. Don't believe the scaremongering about Scotland not getting into the EU - the EU will not disenfranchise 5 million of its citizens to keep England happy when it knows that England is likely to leave the EU soon.