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I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?Who says it's the result of an exit poll, could be the results from last week.
What? They stood outside polling stations last week to ask people?
Are youse just acting deliberately stupid or what?
Yes I am genuinely stupid. What do you mean?
If we win this it really does spell the end for traditional media as the only opinion formers in town.
@seos - the traditional media would not be allowed to circulate that poll "story", the fact you've heard it (via social media?) and posted it here just shows how difficult it is to square the law with the explosion of communication / broadcast mechanisms we have.
I think traditional media is very much on the wane as an opinion former however Murdoch's intervention and the impact of it shows its still overy (too) powerful. The referendum won't show this to be true or false, IMO it's already happening
It's not coming from media, it's just hearsay as I said.jambalaya - Member
@seos - the traditional media would not be allowed to circulate that "story", the fact you've heard it (via social media?) and posted it here just shows how difficult it is to square the law with the explosion of communication / broadcast mechanisms we have
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.
can you post a link to the leaked SNP 60% thing?
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.
Really ? The poll he comissioned and published set off the whole "yes might win" frenzy and IMO directly lead to the vow from UK parties for more Devo powers.
It's not coming from media, it's just hearsay as I said.
Understood, I was making the point that mainstream media knows to publish such a thing is illegal
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?
[img] 
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Is this something new to help with the SNP's core support, because they're afraid that calling it a 'Polling Station' might be a bit too close to 'Police Station' and scare them away?
haha - I noticed that too.
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?
Ever wondered why this vote is taking place at all
They've always used those signs in scotland.ninfan - Member
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?Is this something new to help with the SNP's core support, because they're afraid that calling it a 'Polling Station' might be a bit too close to 'Police Station' and scare them away?
It's a place where polling happens. 😆
Well if one person can influence the outcome of a poll, that'd put question marks on the validity of the entire polling system.jambalaya - Member
Regards to Murdoch, I honestly think he's an irrelevance in this, he's been hanging on and hanging on trying to perpetuate his own myth.Really ? The poll he comissioned and published set off the whole "yes might win" frenzy and IMO directly lead to the vow from UK parties for more Devo powers.
Particularly in this case, I'd probably agree with that, it's been a common theme of mine that the polls are well off! 😉
Democracy?imnotverygood - Member
Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is?Ever wondered why this vote is taking place at all
Can't came from a private forum.bigjim - Member
can you post a link to the leaked SNP 60% thing?
on the leaked result it would be a dangerous idea to leak a lead when every opinion poll says Yes is behind. You need to convince every yes and undecided to come out on your side not spread complacency. A lead for Yes early on would only spur the No's to make sure they get out and the undecided that are not convinced to head for the no to maintain the status quo. People don't bother for forgon conclusions they fight when they feel cornered.
And yes the death of the mainstream media may be approaching but the stuff that's lining up to replace it is really devoid of a lot of the principles of responsible journalism. Don't include the shitty red tops in that but the real people doing real work to make sure things are actually right rather than just knocking out 144 characters and hoping for a retweet.
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Wouldn't releasing exit poll results/information prior to the closing of the polls be illegal?
aren't you confusing the release of exit poll information (people standing outside and asking) with the release of official counts (by party observers inside that are supposed to keep quiet)? the UK doesn't have laws restricting opinion polls around election time unlike some countries.
They've always used those signs in scotland.
Right...
[img] 
?v=1&c=IWSAsset&k=2&d=GkZZ8bf5zL1ZiijUmxa7QfS1Ngz%2FpS8aHJZVPLsadxFuL4FsAMa8uknpH3yAFyvm[/img]
edit for mikewsmith - similar to
Ha Ha...nice one Ninfan! 😀
403 - Forbidden: Access is denied.
Picture in a special place ninfan?
konabunny - Memberaren't you confusing the release of exit poll information (people standing outside and asking) with the release of official counts ([u]by party observers inside that are supposed to keep quiet)[/u]? the UK doesn't have laws restricting opinion polls around election time unlike some countries.
I don't know, its Sesamh that made the claim that in this secret forum they're discussing it, but the claim that its based upon [i]"when people are asking at the polling stations"[/i] doesn't tally with party observers, because, as you rightly point out, they have to keep quiet.
Can't came from a private forum.
Can you copy and paste it?
odds just gone to 1-6 'no'
Freedom for Dorking (in the Surrey Hills ?)
[url= https://twitter.com/journo_alex/status/512553418687528961/photo/1 ]Dorking Advertiser Headline[/url]
What's the private forum called?
Yesramp?
a place where they poll you?Does anyone know what a 'polling place' is
The bookies just react to money placed, and base their odds on whatever will make them a profit. Giving what is clear a sense in England that the vote will be no, I'd say that's where most money on being placed on the no.Rockape63 - Member
odds just gone to 1-6 'no'
Seosamh77 - for reference:
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating 60%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
[b]Scottish independence referendum Act 2013:
[/b]
8(1)No person may publish before the close of the poll —
[i](a)any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted in the referendum where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or
(b)any forecast as to the result of the referendum which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
(2)If a person acts in contravention of this paragraph the person commits an offence.
(3)A person who commits an offence under sub-paragraph (2) is liable on summary conviction to imprisonment for a term not exceeding 12 months or to a fine not exceeding level 5 on the standard scale (or both).
(4)In this paragraph—
“forecast” includes estimate,
“publish” means make available to the public at large (or any section of the public), in whatever form and by whatever means,
“voters” includes proxies for voters,
[/i]
Hope you enjoy porridge 😉
Probably ought to mention it to Mark, as strictly speaking he's publishing it. Though I note you've also quoted it in your post, ninfan...
(I checked back and I only asked a question rather than republishing - I promise I'll visit though 8) )
youse are just being dim now.
Yeah Aracer - without knowing the source, its difficult to know whether its sensitive and unpublishable material, or, ahem, just more nationalist bull**it 😉
Edit:
we're being dim? You're the one who's broken the law sonny 😆
seosamh77 - Member
youse are just being dim now.
Or perhaps respecting the law that is put in place to make these things fair and honest, where do you think we are here Florida?
There are really good reasons you don't release that sort of data on polling day, unless you want the whole thing called off.
and yes spouting off on the internet is called releasing it, it's one of those things that people need to understand.
Someone on my wife's FB has just made a long post about how much they love the people of England, Wales and NI and they are voting yes because they want democratic change for everyone.
Ok, well why not campaign for that then? The Yessers didn't create anything, the SNP offered them this because they are a nationalist party. People in Yorkshire don't have a Yorkshire nationalist party and even if they did it's not going to be a popular concept.
As it happens, the issue of independence has galvanised everyone to hope for democratic change. It would have been great if this could have happened without the destruction of the union. But not enoug people really tried.
The best thing that could happen to the UK is a No vote imo.
youse are the ones insisting and i'm talking about exit polls, I'm not, I've not mntioned exit polls.
The actual quote went something along the lines of NS has had a relaxing few days because...
Last time I looked at stats for implied probabilities from the bookies they had No at about 75-80%, but of course seosamh77 is right, the bookies don't try and predict the result so much as try and predict the market, so I'd take those results with a pinch of salt.
Bing have been doing big data and sentiment analysis and have 48.7% Yes, 51.3% No as their final prediction.
WTF is this youse thing anyway?
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating xx%, when people are asking at the polling stations.
Do you mean your quote or the one you are quoting?
[img] 
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😆
mikewsmith - Member
WTF is this youse thing anyway?
seosamh77 - Member
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating xx%, when people are asking at the polling stations.Do you mean your quote or the one you are quoting?
Youse = the first word I shall enter into the new scottish dictionary! 😆 Plural of you
btw, in what planet does internal equate to exit?
how exactly? As I've said, how the **** do you get exit from internal?
The actual quote went something along the lines of NS has had a relaxing few days because...
when people are asking at the polling stations.
How did they ask them at the polling stations a few days ago? Can Youse answer that?
😆
and which part of 'internal' means 'illegally publish on the internet while the polls are still open'?
So just going of 8.1 a&b then
Scottish independence referendum Act 2013:8(1)No person may publish before the close of the poll —
(a)any statement relating to the way in which voters have voted in the referendum where that statement is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information given by voters after they have voted, or
(b)any forecast as to the result of the referendum which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given.
when people are asking at the polling stations.
Bing have been doing big data and sentiment analysis and have 48.7% Yes, 51.3% No as their final prediction.
Got a link to that? Interested in the technology.
Youse = the first word I shall enter into the new scottish dictionary!
Pretty sure it'll need to go near the end.
Last time I looked at stats for implied probabilities from the bookies they had No at about 75-80%, but of course seosamh77 is right, the bookies don't try and predict the result so much as try and predict the market, so I'd take those results with a pinch of salt.
Erm... they do both. Yes the odds are skewed by other factors to some extent but they are still largely based on predictions of how likely events are to occur.
The best thing that could happen to the UK is a No vote imo.
If you ask me putting your trust in the established UK parties to suddenly listen to what people are saying and not go back on their word of offering greater devolution is an even bigger leap of faith than voting yes. A yes vote well enshrine in law what the main UK parties have completely failed to deliver despite promises time and again over electoral reform, constitutional reform, an elected second chamber etc.
molgrips - MemberPretty sure it'll need to go near the end.
iScotland doesn't recognise your petty english so-called "alphabet", after independence all letters will be equal.
molgrips - MemberThe Yessers didn't create anything, the SNP offered them this because they are a nationalist party.
Er, the desire for independence created the SNP, not the other way round. The SNP brought us the referendum because that's what they're for.
not if it's the first word entered.molgrips - MemberPretty sure it'll need to go near the end.
I can play the semantics game as well people. 😉
I'm hearing stories that SNP internal polls are indicating xx%
Implies polls performed internally by the SNP.
when people are asking at the polling stations
Implies the polls were held at the polling stations, which seems to fit well within the category of [i]“any forecast as to the result of the referendum which is (or might reasonably be taken to be) based on information so given”[/i]
TBH what I think you meant was that if voters asked the SNP people at the polling station how they thought it was going, then the SNP people are referring to their own poll data (which may have been from weeks ago). Unless they make it implicitly clear that this is old data and not based on the actual ballot, then I think they’re being very silly.
I'd disappear quick if I were you Seo.....the Rozzers might be on the way!
Got a link to that? Interested in the technology.
[url= http://blogs.bing.com/uk/2014/09/03/bing-predicts-forecasts-the-scottish-independence-referendum-in-uk-test/ ]http://blogs.bing.com/uk/2014/09/03/bing-predicts-forecasts-the-scottish-independence-referendum-in-uk-test/[/url]
Not that much technical detail tbh, more of an overview.
I can play the semantics game as well people. 😉
Won't be the only game you learn to play in prison
like mummies and daddies 😈
NS has been having a relaxed few days because...irelanst - Member
Unless they make it [b]implicitly clear[/b] that this is old data and not based on the actual ballot, then I think they’re being very silly.
ninfan - Member
I can play the semantics game as well people.
Won't be the only game you learn to play in prison
I'm sure the police don't particularly take kindly to wasting their time. 😉
NS has been having a relaxed few days because...
Honestly not sure what this means, but in reality you broke election law by suggesting you had data that was taken from the people at polling stations. Read the rules you broke them. If you have no idea why this sort of thing exists then you should probably stop.
please **** up! 😆mikewsmith - Member
NS has been having a relaxed few days because...Honestly not sure what this means, but in reality you broke election law by suggesting you had data that was taken from the people at polling stations. Read the rules you broke them. If you have no idea why this sort of thing exists then you should probably stop.
NS has been having a relaxed few days because...
That was only added as part of your back-pedal though, it wasn’t in the original statement that you made.
ah that makes loads of sense now, you need to swear to try and explain yourself. Well done have a gold star.
Meanwhile some more of the ugly
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/18/scottish-referendum-bullying-intimidation_n_5841722.html?&ir=UK+Politics
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@seos if it comes to it I'll be willing to act as a character reference, in that no one of sound mind would pay any attention to anything you posted 8)
Someone on my wife's FB has just made a long post about how much they love the people of England, Wales and NI and they are voting yes because they want democratic change for everyone.
This is interesting as with smaller and smaller democracies you eventually end up with everyone doing as they please, kings of their own castle. Isn't that the dream of the right ?
Being shared by pro-yessers on facebook
So come the change they would like to know who voted no? Is that not just a little bit sinister?
There weren't any Yes people at my polling station - just a couple of rather sad-looking Labour people handing out leaflets.
So I think that's likely to be rubbish.
Well I know what I'd be doing if I was up there voting No 😉
I don't think the BBC are in charge of the numbers!
😆jambalaya - Member
@seos if it comes to it I'll be willing to act as a character reference, in that no one of sound mind would pay any attention to anything you posted
So come the change they would like to know who voted no? Is that not just a little bit sinister?
dont be daft you are ****ed either way as they still know who you are
if you must get paranoid at least get fully paranoid 😉
aren't you confusing the release of exit poll information (people standing outside and asking) with the release of official counts (by party observers inside that are supposed to keep quiet)? the UK doesn't have laws restricting opinion polls around election time unlike some countries.
I do apologise. apparently I'm talking complete rubbish.
Have they left yet?
You are not allowed to release polling information, exit or otherwise, once voting is underway. You can only do so again once polling stations are closed.
Is this going to be covered all night like general elections are?
But with far far less on which to report?
There was hardly any coverage on the BBC or Sky news at breakfast this morning but I'd expect round the clock coverage tonight
loads of people I know saying they are staying up all night, so I would imagine so.molgrips - Member
Is this going to be covered all night like general elections are?But with far far less on which to report?
I'm going to my kip tbh. I don't think the format of a yes/no referedum will be that exciting, and even if it is, I don't my heart could take it.
i shall wake up to success or failure!
Our office (London) charity "sweepstake" (picking a Yes percentage) has 84% of us for a No result of some kind, most optimistic Yes 54%
I have taken the day off work tomorrow, will be staying up watching the result unfold with a drink or two. BBC or STV, still to decide.
Turns out the media were at the polling station for Mr Darling's eyebrows and not mine this morning.
Assuming a decent turnout a 51/49 vote means approx 75,000 people swing the result 😯
What will Scotland do when the oil runs out?
I dunno, ask England theirs runs out tomorrow! 😆
jambalaya - Member
Assuming a decent turnout a 51/49 vote means approx 75,000 people swing the result
The penny finally drops! 🙂
and with that, I'm off to cast my Yes vote!
Currency vol up 10x in a month. Thanks Alex, close it out soon. Feed the speculators as part of the equal society 😉
seosamh77 - Member
What will Scotland do when the oil runs out?I dunno, ask England theirs runs out tomorrow!
*sigh* I hope you are joking, as you do know the oil production is contracted out to private companies.
Fingers crossed common sense prevails.
I honestly reckon the swing could be just the 16/17 year olds who vote "no".
Which would be really funny to the casual observer.
[url= http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome ]bookies are never wrong[/url] 😉