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According to Fore live there's a survation poll coming out at 930 tonight.
10.30 here https://twitter.com/Survation
"Very interesting" apparently
.
Actually, looking at those 74 results it occurs to me that Facha is all Scotland's fault. Unintended consequences.
@bigjim - I shouldn't scaremonger, I am sure Scottish lenders would work with their UK counterparts to transfer the debt. In my case I was pissed as 1) I'd paid an arrangement fee for a special rate which I couldn't match 2) I'd moved jobs and actually replacing the loan at all was quite difficult, it looked quite dire at one stage that I could match the loan size at all. The small print of my mortgage allowed the lender to requirement to repay it at 3 months notice at any time in special circumstances (like them deciding to exit the business), I imagine a lot of loans are like that.
If you believe Lie News, parliament may be recalled for an emergency debate in the event of a Yes vote. I wonder what they might do? Pass emergency legislation? Disolve itself and hold a snap general election? Or just waffle in shock?
Try and make the plan they never actually had!
Survation 6% lead to No
I wouldn't call that a 'very interesting' result.
. Most recently of course was in 2010
A coalition with the majority of voters and the majority of seats in England is the same as one that has a minority of seats and votes in Scotland??
Its much worse for Scotland IMHO
Interesting though as the scottish votes change it from a tory govt [[ majority of 20] to a coalition meaning no one got what they wanted. You sure that Union works well 😉
64 _ yes that is correct
74a- requires welsh votes - Scotland alone did not sway the vote - but splitting hairs/ pedantic / accurate there but certainly England was outvoted by the rUK but not scotland alone.
74 b - no labour won in scotland england and wales*
So actually all things considered it doesn't seem Scotland suffers that much of a democratic deficit compared to England when it's got the government it voted for 13 times out of 20 against 17 times out of 20. That's 3 times where the wishes of 50 odd million have been overruled by 5 million.
You claimed 4 and then claim three - either way both figures are wrong
IMHO it is a big difference and it can only grow as every non labour govt will lead to the figure growing for scotland. Interesting though as it is reasonable to say swings and roundabouts but it still favours england - inevitable really as it is massive in comparison.
For example you wont find a govt that only has one seat in England - it is not possible
Cheer though
EDIT
* they had the most seats [simple] majority but not an actual majority[ 50% + pf seats] on second looking
All the england loses , whilst true, are not as sever as one MP and a tory led govt though ...it may just be possible that I hate tories though 😉
I wouldn't call that a 'very interesting' result.
I did put quote marks around that statement.
74a- requires welsh votes - Scotland alone did not sway the vote
Overall Tory Majority in England, no overall majority in England and Scotland whether or not you include Wales. Admittedly no overall majority in England and Wales combined, but close enough that they might have formed a government with Unionist support, or would probably have been able to manage as a minority government - though England and Wales combined is kind of irrelevant as the question is whether England got the government it voted for (or do I have to go through the records and see how often Scotland and Wales combined got the government it voted for? 😯 )
74 b - no labour won in scotland england and wales*
Would have required a coalition in England, no majority. Though in any case without Scotland that election would have never happened...
I think we can comfortably call that 3, though it probably makes sense to only claim one for '74 which leaves us with two if you want to discard 2010. So democratic deficit for England is 50 million times 2, democratic deficit for Scotland is 5 million times 7. As always, Scotland does a lot better than claimed if you examine the figures properly 😉
I wouldn't call that a 'very interesting' result.
Well it's quite interesting in the context of BT panicking because they think they're about to lose. Though I suspect most people now trust the polls even less than they trust AS.
The Survation poll is interesting like all polls - it puts Yes up 1% compared to the last Survation poll, but 6% behind, so still some work to do - but like all recent polls it puts the two sides basically neck and neck within the margins of error.
One thing which will be interesting to analyse later is whether the polling method (Survation use landline phone calls) skews the results and whether that's sufficiently accounted for. I've read reports that the Survation poll has unusually low Yes support form younger people compared to other recent polls, which may be down to low landline usage.
What'll be interesting is a poll done after today's definitely-not-panicking visits from the party leaders.
Ben you are wrong about the survation polling method and the margin or error [url= http://survation.com/methodology/ ]Link[/url]
Survation use online polls, face to face interviews and phone polls using landlines that use "targeted lifestyle data for specific younger age brackets are called, to achieve a broad sample of ages".
The 1% increase for the no campaign is in the margins of error, the 6% lead is not though.
As always, Scotland does a lot better than claimed if you examine the figures properly 😉
I will leave that one for TJ :
PS I LOL ed
Depends what polling method the client has ordered I guess - face to face interviews would be more expensive than telephone.
The weighting is where I think maybe all polling companies are in uncharted waters - this is looking like it'll have a very high turnout, lots of people who have never voted before, and I'm not convinced the polling companies can weight accurately for that effect.
It'll be an interesting week 😉
This un be an online panel
What most surprises me is that there are still undecided voters! This has been discussed to death. Do any Scots know any undecided voters?
Why is that surprising? For some people the advantages and disadvantages of each option are closely in balance - just as they are for the country as a whole. Is there never anything you have difficulty in making a decision about despite lots of information?
So after two weeks no change, except one poll published by ????
The dirty arts of strategic communication and manipulation at play???? The smell gets bigger and bigger
All the latest bllx from the panicking leaders probably unnecessary had the dirty digger not published that poll. Hmmmmmm.......
I am undecided
Do any Scots know any undecided voters?
yes, me. No idea why you think it would be black and white. I can see many advantages in being independent but some life changing potential negatives, mostly around boring but essential things like money, mortgages and jobs. Also I've found the yes campaign very unpleasant, heavily based on lies, ignorance, aggression and I feel a struggle to put my name against it. I've been leaning no in the last few weeks but today more in the yes side of things.
What you can't decide either way? What are your concerns?
Thm, can you elaborate a bit more please?
Yes simple...ignore all polls during the past 2 week and what has actually changed between beginning and end of the period?
In what publication was the one poll that had everyone in spin published?
What has the owner of that publication been up to over the past few days?
In the meantime, Scots get a new series of concessions and panicking leaders offering to distort the democratic picture across the UK. Strategic communications anyone??
Of course, it could just be complete coincidence.
What you can't decide either way? What are your concerns?
Can't be bothered typing it all out as it's late and I'm tired, but in a nutshell I was born here and have never lived anywhere else apart from when travelling, love the place and it would break my heart to see the place go to the dogs, at the moment I'd rather not have to leave for job or financial reasons either though there are other places I would live fairly happily if I had to. There are certainly massive uncertainties around finance and the ensuing web of things related to that, despite the utopian vision/blinkers of many fanatical yes types. I doubt many people working in finance, oil and gas or other lynchpin industries will be voting yes.
On the other hand I'm no great fan of being governed by westminster, especially tory rule, and I'm sure things could be done better, and I don't think the current shower of wet blankets in opposition are going to set anything on fire any time soon. I think there is a lot of potential in scotland but we also have a lot of problems and potential problems.
Also as I said the Yes campaign has been really unappealing to me, I've never read so much nonsense going around and can't believe people get sucked in by it, just makes me think of Bush or UKIP type campaigning. Some of the stuff posted on facebook is really loony but people just seem to share it blindly. Some of the stuff on here is worse! I find it really repellant and don't want to associate with it.
There you have the decision making process of somebody who is actually informed in a nutshell <applause>
Edit
Ah sorry, yes of course thanks. I've followed your posts which (for me) have been informative and matter of fact. Its interesting what you point out, I live in Scotland and we discuss independence in work on a daily basis and so far there is one undecided and the rest are no. However I suppose we are the 'minority'.
Nicely put Jim, I work in one of the sectors you mention and as you say its a widespread no.
RBS and Lloyds are off!
How many jobs is that?
I have savings in some Scottish-based companies (e.g. Scottish Widows). Should I sell those now in order to avoid being caught up in the maelstrom?
Ninfan, yes confirmed. Rbs and Lloyd's to relocate their HQs upon a yes vote. Wowsers.
Source for the claim please- Link etc
Wowsers? Surely the banks relocating HQs was one of the most obvious thing to happen - as explained many hundreds of pages back, the regulatory systems pretty much require them to do that.
I wonder what other things will happen which the yes supporters have been describing as the no campaign attempting to bully or mislead.
Ah of course the ones that the UK taxpayers own
Makes sense
Junkyard - lazarus
I thought people in Scotland could vote for the government in the UK elections too.They can but the votes in England decide what govt they got and [ almost always] what govt everyone gets hence the debate
This is a massive over simplification. Like saying the UK gets the government it votes for. I have never felt that inner cities across Northern England dictate the government I get.
ninfan - MemberRBS and Lloyds are off!
How many jobs is that?
Relocating a HQ? Potentially, 1 😉 Lloyds Bank is actually already headquartered in London
It's a likely outcome, but let's wait a little since your source says they're "following standard life" despite standard life not having said they're going anywhere. It's a good headline but the detail will be what counts.
If there are two things we'd love to give back to Scotland it would be RBS and HBOS, sadly they are relocating HQ to UK it seems.
Re THM's point on Murdoch, £100m++ in legal fees and settlements for hacking, £11m redundancy to Brookes alone. Shut down NoW his most profitable paper at a cost of many £10m's ... the guy has always had an agenda now it's off the scales, if he can stick one to the UK he will plus show everyone he is still able to influence politics.
The GF is back in Paris, quite a lot of coverage of the referendum on tv there, which is a good thing I think. The French dont really understand why the Scots would want to break away. They did comment on the currency wrt EU saying Scotland would not be given an exception like the UK to use the £ within the Eau and that they would have to wait there turn to be considered for membership. They also noted the political difficulty of accepting Scotland and the problems that would give France and Spain wrt Basque and Catalans
They did comment on the currency wrt EU saying Scotland would not be given an exception like the UK to use the £ within the Eau and that they would have to wait there turn to be considered for membership. They also noted the political difficulty of accepting Scotland and the problems that would give France and Spain wrt Basque and Catalans
French media in "crainte de projet" (hopes google translate is working) conspiracy 😉
despite standard life not having said they're going anywhere.
Do you really still think this is just scaremongering:
http://www.standardlife.com/utility/customer_statement-2.html
I note they try very hard to appear impartial by talking about "uncertainty", "precautionary measures", "planning for new regulated companies" and "we could transfer", but they then go on to say that they would
"ensure:
All transactions with customers outside of Scotland continue to be in Sterling (money paid in and money paid out)
All customers outside of Scotland continue to be part of the UK tax regime
All customers outside of Scotland continue to be covered by existing consumer protection and regulatory arrangements e.g. the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and Financial Conduct Authority"
Maybe you could explain how they would ensure that their customers' accounts remain within the UK tax regime and covered by the FSCA and FCA when those accounts aren't in the UK? This is a done deal - there is no doubt at all about it.
aracer - MemberDo you really still think this is just scaremongering:
No, I think it's extremely clearly worded. If they wanted to say "we're offski", they would have managed I think, in about 500 less words.
And when I say clearly worded, I mean things like
aracer - Member
they then go on to say that they would "ensure:
when in fact they don't say they would- they say they could. So the rest of your post is just based on a misreading/misrepresentation. Maybe the latter since you started quoting immediately after the bit you don't like?
when in fact they don't say they would- they say they could.
I'm not sure why they would say the "could" if that wasn't their intention anyway.
You're right. I don't see why Scotland would need a large functioning army. In reality the rUK would never allow Scotland to be invaded by a foreign power anyway so there's really no need. Far better to have an arrangement whereby the rUK defends Scotland in the event of an agressor attacking, and Scotland pays for the protection, with some sort of ongoing contribution acting as a retainer.
Maybe there could be some sort of organisation of countries that feel similarly on the topic and are located around the North Atlantic? They could record their agreement in some sort of treaty. 😀
What most surprises me is that there are still undecided voters! This has been discussed to death. Do any Scots know any undecided voters?
I'm not sure...
"We're keeping the pound" is meaningless? Is English your first language? The statement may be wrong but it certainly isn't meaningless. Still, that would explain why other simple English phrases like "fairer society" are beyond your comprehension.
oooooOOO[b]OOOOO[/b]OOOooooo!
My own personal feeling is that some companies may leave Scotland in the event of a yes vote, but that will be dwarded by the amount of financial companies ****ing on off up to Edinburgh if we hold a referendum on EU membership. That is, if Scotland gains a place within the EU.
Yup, Wall St banks are already making contingency plans to leave London if the UK leaves the EU.
No, I think it's extremely clearly worded.
Yes, as I pointed out before, extremely clearly worded so as not to appear that they are taking sides.
when in fact they don't say they would- they say they could. So the rest of your post is just based on a misreading/misrepresentation. Maybe the latter since you started quoting immediately after the bit you don't like?
My misreading/misrepresantation? 😯 You seem to be the one who is interpreting the "could" to apply to "ensure", when the extremely careful wording you point out actually says "to ensure". See my careful cutting also removed the crucial "to" (to avoid any doubt, I cut the bit referring to what they could do, because I was only referring to the aims and it would have been confusing). They list all the things they could do "to ensure" those things - I don't think there is any doubt over their intentions to ensure them. Or do you actually think that with all this planning they're doing they might think "nah, we won't bother ensuring that"?
Oh, and just in case there was any doubt, the very last sentence goes:
"The plans we have put in place will help to ensure continuity"
aracer - Member
Wowsers? Surely the banks relocating HQs was one of the most obvious thing to happen - as explained many hundreds of pages back, the regulatory systems pretty much require them to do that.
Indeed and confirmed from the horses mouth many pages back, but this of course is mere bluster according to yS supporters.
The grown ups are coming out of the shadows now and being v clear on consequence and yet this is all dismissed as "nonsense" by the DO. The one good thing about him is that he is nearly always looking in the mirror when talking so when comments like nonsense, bullying etc are made you know the real reason - it is a simple reflection of himself.
The FT editorial this morning sums it up well
The?case?for?union is overwhelming. The path of separation is a fool’s errand
Quite.
[i]RBS and Lloyds are off!
How many jobs is that?[/i]
Probably very very Few. Being legally based in London, and having your offices, call centres, processing, etc etc somewhere else isn't a massive issue.
Just over 3,000 for RBS (assuming this architecture website is correct)
http://www.edinburgharchitecture.co.uk/rbs
but the point is that you don't need to have the workers anywhere near where the company is formally headquartered.
Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.
Reported in the i today that Salmond will fast track Scotland's entry into the Eurovision Song Contest.
Nice to see he has his priorities right, no idea of what currency will be used, Capital Flight already happening but hey, you're going to be in Eurovision!
Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.
And which government has to bail you out when it goes pear-shaped again.
Given the scale of the buildings being looked out, there will be a "reasonable" number re-locating.
The tax issue is important too. The highly paid, high tax payers tend to be more mobile and couple that with reducing corporate tax and the DOs numbers soon fall over - not that they were their in the first place. As we have already seen, he may well end up out austeritying, austerity george! But then again he does like getting on the RW of Thatcherites every now and again.
KB is correct about the theory, the key things are location of HQ and whether you are a branch or a subsidiary. The intangible is whether clients perceive a difference in physical location. Judging by the contingency planning they do hence the Grossart sensitivity yesterday!
Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.
you pay tax where you earn profit - and evil multinationals amazingly seem to earn money in completely different place to their employees and sales and suppliers. funny huh?
bencooper - Member
Probably affects where you pay corporation tax though.
And which government has to bail you out when it goes pear-shaped again.
Free riding again, Ben?!? 😉
I think the banks know a compliant tax and regulation regime when they see one.
Exactly and where did they locate - remember AS view on heavy handed regulation in the UK? Or was "Mr Light Touch come and play in my back yard" just flapping in the wind once again. The serpent twists that one very well, doesn't he?
Flip, flop, flip, flop....
Who made the announcement about RBS and Lloyds? The Treasury. Who owns most of RBS and a lot of Lloyds? The Treasury. Who does the Treasury work for? George Osborne.
This isn't some impartial business decision, it's as political as it gets. The big guns are going all out to prevent a Yes vote, and the media are doing their best to help.
Actually might have to re-think the dirty digger conspiracy theory (someone else is manipulating the polls). The Times leading with Financial Turmoil hits Scotland on the front page.
Perhaps, he just long currency vol like me and making mischief to suit his position?!? 😉
This isn't some impartial business decision, it's as political as it gets.
I think you fail to understand the very onerous obligations on listed companies in relation to information provision. This sort of stuff has a high degree of share price sensitivity and investors know what it means. It can only be published if it genuinely is what current management will do. Unlike the politicians, directors of such companies face very serious consequences for misleading.
[quote=muddydwarf said]Reported in the i today that Salmond will fast track Scotland's entry into the Eurovision Song Contest.
Nice to see he has his priorities right, no idea of what currency will be used, Capital Flight already happening but hey, you're going to be in Eurovision!
Aye it is just not possible that the media , and your good self, has an agenda. It is quite unlikely that this is the prime issues that he has been wrestling with.
Its about the weakest and most pointless personal attack there has been on AS and that is some achievement.
Can I ask a question re the currency union? If understand it correctly then the UK debt is non transferable to another country and if Scotland becomes independent then the only way Scotland could pay it's share is via a union. Is this right enough?
I think you will find that CEOs need no encouragement to defend their interests and those are clear. The neutrality is slipping for sure. Why? Because this is serious and there is a real risk of an outcome that is not in anyone's eventual interest. Even E2R has intervened with a subtlety that only the palace knows how, ditto the Bank of England. This is more than squeaky bum time (although he's there as well), it's serious politics and business. The stakes have been raised.
The business community are saying WTF, people may well be stupid enough to swallow this BS and are belatedly reacting. But emotions have always overwhelmed reality and truth as they did with the euro project. Reality comes back to bite you on the backside at some stage though.
Can I ask a question re the currency union? If understand it correctly then the UK debt is non transferable to another country and if Scotland becomes independent then the only way Scotland could pay it's share is via a union. Is this right enough?
Scotland would never be paying a share of the debt, as the debt is in the UK's name - Scotland would be paying the UK in exchange for assets, and those payments would assist the UK to pay off the debt.
You are correct - Ben isn't (edited for cross post*) - you cannot physically separate outstanding debt obligations. HM T made that clear earlier in the year. The rUK would stand behind the outstanding debt. This is why it is a technical issue. An iS would make a financial contribution that is equivalent to the debt (ie, principal and interest) the only question is how much (tbc) and how to structure it (a big break one-off payment (unlikely) or a series of payments). Off to meetings now, but may dig out links explaining how this will work.
Essentially you replace debt with a loan and financial transfers.
Even yS has published stuff explaining this - it's not hard to find with google.
* settling the debt is nothing to do with assets (at least in the strict sense) that is a yS smokescreen and part of the BS debate. Everyone has received a benefit from the debt outstanding and therefore have an obligation towards repaying it. A country that takes the benefit but then reneges on the obligation to pay back, is in effect defaulting. The FC knows this, AS knows this, the rest is smoke and mirrors.
Junkyard - I want you to bugger off remember?
I just think AS and Co are selling a very dodgy package. Considering this is the SNP's lifes work it really appears to be built on smoke and mirrors & you deserve more Tha that before you make your choice.
Most of the majors have contingency in place for a Yes, some of it is around company structures and some of it is job related. These aren't, as AS would have us believe, idle threats - I helped write one of them and they are doing it as the period of uncertainty will debase their business so they are shoring it up. You can't argue that a 2 year negotiation period will not be healthy for anyone. And this is a non government owned business and large employer. The mood is dark, very much more so after being tainted with the view that if you are minded to No then you are essentially siding with Westminster. WTF, no means I disagree with the breakup of the union, i spent 5 hours driving listening to the Yes camp claim it wasn't about politics. Next day, its about politics.
Aaargh, I go for a wee coast to coast ride in the Highlands, and when I come back we still haven't decided how many angels fit on a pinhead.
What does stand out is the paucity of No signs and the profusion of Yes. I did try counting for a while and it was about 10:1 over 120 miles.
I managed to find a No voter though. I was talking to him at a food kiosk while wolfing down 2 lunches. A Daily Mail reader. I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage, and the whole list of politicians in England who have voiced their opinion on stripping Scotland of funding.
I think I left him as a Don't Know. If he does look up what those guys have said, I think he'll become a Yes. 🙂
I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage
FFS
I think the banks know a compliant tax and regulation regime when they see one.
@ben as it stands there are no plans for a regulatory regime in Scotland so its hard to see how you'll have any banks or financial services at all.
If RBS etc do move the HQ permanently it will only be matter of time before the majority those staff move too.
Debt: IMO Scotland will agree to be responsible for a portion of the interest and principal currently payable, eg 9% of total. They will make these payments to the UK Treasury on an agreed schedule. From the point of independence they will start to borrow in their own name for additional amounts (eg budget deficit, capital expenditure), they could borrow via "private loans" with the UK or other lenders or by "public" bond markets. In all liklihood they will begin via private loans whilst they establish their own presence although they will need a Treasury/Central Bank to do this. Even if Scotland can convince lenders it is a high credit quality country the cost of this new borrowing will be higher than the UK due to the "newness" and small size of the Scottish economy
@epic clearly signs are not a good indicator of intentions as the vote is something like 40/40/20 (Yes, No, Don't Know)
RBS:
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29151798 ]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29151798[/url]
"It is my view as chief executive that any decision to move our registered headquarters would have no impact on our everyday banking services used by our customers in Scotland.
"This is a technical procedure regarding the rotation of our registered head office based on our current strategy and business plan. It is not an intention to move operations or jobs".
And Lloyds
"Lloyds Banking Group said it could also shift its legal home to its headquarters, which is already in London.
However, Lloyds said this was just a legal procedure and "there would be no immediate changes or issues".
So... Is it just me or is this largely good news for Yes? A scary headline, sure. Everyone knows these are multinational organisations, the idea of a "Scottish bank"'s been absurd for years. And as I mentioned last night, Lloyds Banking is actually already based in London. So there might be a small scale migration of jobs, potentially some pretty high value, but mostly it's a wholesale migration of risk, no? Tax continues to be paid (in theory) where the business is done and (in practice) where the company feels like paying it. And now the RUK gets to be lender of last resort whether they want to or not.
Lloyds, unless things changed a lot since I worked there, was already run from its HQ in London. And while we were being Better Together a load of HBOS jobs migrated to Gillingham and Halifax already (including mine)
Oh. In unrelated news, today the Scotsman came out in favour of No. Which is [i]quite a shock[/i].
Oh. In unrelated news, today the Scotsman came out in favour of No. Which is quite a shock.
I know. I haven't been quite so shocked since I heard the news that Graham Norton was gay.
I have savings in some Scottish-based companies (e.g. Scottish Widows). Should I sell those now in order to avoid being caught up in the maelstrom?
No idea, I asked something similar and epicyclo on here said he has moved his money overseas, and he is a frothing yes voter. I've not got much but I still don't want to lose it. I can't even figure out if my bank is actually scottish, or british, or what!
I managed to find a No voter though. I was talking to him at a food kiosk while wolfing down 2 lunches. A Daily Mail reader. I suggested he look at what is planned for him if we vote No, eg Boris, Farage, and the whole list of politicians in England who have voiced their opinion on stripping Scotland of funding.I think I left him as a Don't Know. If he does look up what those guys have said, I think he'll become a Yes.
Success for project feart then