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Flat?
You'll be ok, just be the right side of the wall before [i]they[/i] close the border.
Well I've been in Scotland - mainly Dundee and Aberdeen for the last 5 weeks
In the bar every night and not heard a single word about the referendum
Word on the street is that Alex Salmond will be smiling when they results of the latest YouGov poll is published in the morning...
EDIT - Gap is now 6% at 53 No, 47 Yes. From 61 No, 39 Yes two weeks ago. That's a massive swing.
Down to a 3% swing required apparently.
Of the regular pollsters, YouGov has historically recorded a much bigger gap in favour of the Dependents.
You know something Scotroutes - I can see it actually happening in a couple of weeks and not having to wait until I'm drawing my pension in some far off land.
Aye and the same poll finds that undecided voters splitting to YES by 2-1.
Then there's the fact the the bookies are shortening the odds too.
It's purely maths and liability with the bookies, nothing to do with whether or not one side has a better chance
To a degree I would agree, but if they're shortening the odds on Yes and No is drifting they must not be quite as confident in their original calculations as they once were.
Now that will be a shift in polling. And from YouGov as well.
It's nothing to do with confidence one way or another, the systems set the prices dynamically and it's purely done on liability.
Even the very small bookies use a price provider rather than trying to work it out
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William Hill.... 7-2 yes 1-5 no.... as bookies go thats whats known as a cert 😉
1 to 5 on a no vote?
Yep clearly the bookies are dead sure it will be a yes vote 🙄
Don't suppose anybody had a look at the link before it went all 404
Good to see there is some sense around
SPF Media Release – Independence ReferendumSPF Media Release – Independence Referendum
SCOTTISH POLICE FEDERATION
5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QFMEDIA RELEASE
The Scottish Police Federation represents all police officers in the ranks of constable, sergeant, inspector and chief inspector, police cadets and special constables, over 18,500 people, 98% of all police officers in Scotland.
To: News Editor
Date: 1 September 2014
Subject: Independence ReferendumIn response to the suggestion of absolute carnage in and around polling stations on the 18th Sept Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;
“The independence debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured and it would prove a disservice to those who have participated in it thus far to suggest that with 17 days to go, Scotland is about to disintegrate into absolute carnage on the back of making the most important decision in the country’s history
Politicians and supporters of whichever point of view need to be mindful of the potential impact of intemperate, inflammatory and exaggerated language, lest they be seen to seek to create a self fulfilling prophecy”
ENDS
[quote=gordimhor ]Good to see there is some sense around
More here
Hmm, not such a great poster epicyclo. It seems to suggest that people who voted no for devolution are those voting no for independence. I think supporters of devo max would have voted for devolution but not for independence.
In fact, it's a pretty stupid poster, given that it gives no information, it just tries to manipulate the reader by means of meaningless associations. The kind of poster that really pisses me off actually.
I voted yes for Welsh devolution but would not vote for Welsh independence.
EDIT Scotroutes' "unbiased" media coverage is pretty awful too. Christ, I'm glad I'm not in Scotland!
75% of Scots, including myself voted for devolution in 1997, so those warnings about devolution are irrelevant and went largely unheeded. What is offensive is how Yes Scotland seem to have snatched it for themselves.
athgray - Member75% of Scots, including myself voted for devolution in 1997, so those warnings about devolution are irrelevant and went largely unheeded.
I'm not sure I understand your point- the anti-devolution scare stories did go unheeded but the point of the poster is to draw comparisons between the discredited scare stories that were rolled out last time, and the current scare stories. I'm not sure how the electoral shares affect that tbh.
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That didn't work out so well.....
I wonder what it's like being in a country that has a less stable economy than we do?
What was it like for the person in the street in say, Iceland, Greece, or even Ireland?
I'm not sure I understand your point- the anti-devolution scare stories did go unheeded but the point of the poster is to draw comparisons between the discredited scare stories that were rolled out last time, and the current scare stories.
Pointlessly imo. Devolution was far less drastic, so such drastic scare stories were clearly less credible.
It is difficult to compare devolution and independence, however Scotland was largely united then, but deeply divided now. I said this earlier but the point seems to have been missed. The poster seems to say that those that voted for devolution, are the same that will vote for independence now.
Some lovely quotes in there.
Scottish Mandarins want to return to “normality” after the independence debate and build bridges with the rest of British civil service following allegations they have ‘gone native’ by producing political propaganda for the nationalists......“Swinney is very, very keen to be very busy after a No vote in the referendum,” one senior source said. “He is working his contact book quite extensively, speaking to financial services firms and keeping them on board. Nicola Sturgeon is keen to be involved as she positions herself as a successor (to Salmond).
Senior sources said Ms Sturgeon, who could succeed Mr Salmond as First Minister if there is a No vote
Now there's something the Yes camp should publicise more.
I can understand Salmond losing interest if the Scottish people are found wanting, however SNP would have to be included in any decision making with regards to devo max following a no vote. This will help heal any wounds and will undoubtedly help keep Scotland in the UK longer term.
athgray - MemberThe poster seems to say that those that voted for devolution, are the same that will vote for independence now.
What makes you say that? It's making a pretty straightforward point about scare stories, it's not saying anything about who votes for what.
however Scotland was largely united then, but deeply divided now
It's no really, there's a heated debate going on but to turn that into some form of deep division in society is laughable.
Aye, there's no denying an increase in confidence amongst the Yes voters I know. Part of the reason I put a cheeky wager on it.
you and others (possibly me too I struggle with long sentences) have said "aye" on this thread a fair bit. I wonder if some amateur statistician wants to count up all the ersatz Scottishisms on this thread in comparison to others as people try to out-authentic each other. aye, folk, scuppered...
Some lovely quotes in there.
Scottish Government is being responsible and planning in case of a No vote. UK Government is doing naff-all planning in case of a Yes vote.
UK Government is doing naff-all planning in case of a Yes vote.
Because the Scottish government has such definitive plans for that scenario?
[quote=konabunny ]Aye, there's no denying an increase in confidence amongst the Yes voters I know. Part of the reason I put a cheeky wager on it.
you and others (possibly me too I struggle with long sentences) have said "aye" on this thread a fair bit. I wonder if some amateur statistician wants to count up all the ersatz Scottishisms on this thread in comparison to others as people try to out-authentic each other. aye, folk, scuppered...
I hadn't realised that the latter two were distinctively Scottish, though I guess I rarely here "aye" in any other context. However, that's a common use word for me and I hear it every day. I reckon that if you did a wee search on this forum you'd actually see it popping up all over the place.
och, jings, I'll just do a wee search for the ayes, eh?
Michty me KB ye better search for a naw an'a forby aye
Aye isn't a Scottishism, nor is folk or scupper.
Anyway. Isn't it true that most people would want devo max anyway, so the reason for the deep division is that people are being asked to choose between two less suitable options and arguing about which is closest? Being forced to compromise for no reason?
You want three, but you are only offered two or four and no-one can decide which is closest?
It's " oh aye" as it goes. Not "och aye".
One step removed from "ooh arr"
konabunny - Member
...you and others (possibly me too I struggle with long sentences) have said "aye" on this thread a fair bit. I wonder if some amateur statistician wants to count up all the ersatz Scottishisms...
"Aye" is common usage up here.
UK Government is doing naff-all planning in case of a Yes vote.
@ben Perhaps not so much on a public basis but there will have been plans drawn up, these will mostly likely be focused on ensuring the stability of the UK rather than expediting independence.. As the independence process is going to take many years after the vote there is not such a rush and with so many things unknown such as how and if Scotland would join the EU and what currency they will use it seems more sensible for the UK to sit back and wait for the vote and not waste too much civil service time in the context of so much uncertainty. In simple terms it's the Scots who are (potentially) in a rush to "get away", the same urgency doesn't apply to the UK.
"Aye" is perfectly normal speech, my Geordie friends use it all the time.
bencooper - Member
Scottish Government is being responsible and planning in case of a No vote.
Just a pity that they have done so little in the case of a yes vote, Ben.
It's hard to plan when the people you'll be negotiating with refuse to consider the idea.
Oh, is that why so much yS stuff is simply made up, distorted or untrue?
It's hard to plan when the people you'll be negotiating with refuse to consider the idea.
Even harder when you ignore the people you'll be negotiating with telling you the things they won't agree to (which presumably they decided without considering the idea?)
Indeed. Take the central issue of the currency. So the Givernment is clear there will be no CU (as proposed) and if there was the required conditions relating to fiscal policy are incompatible with the objectives of independence. Very clear and backed by history and theory together. The response? Childlike behaviour and deliberate manipulation of currency, debt etc to distort and muddy the debate. And these are people you want to give greater levels of power too?
They can't even get the basics right - but they can secretly implement Tory (?) policies in Scotland while attacking them in rUK!!! Indeed some of the policies are much further right wing than anything the Tories every propose. The SNP in bed with the Adam Smith Institute is a surreal example.
Stop it THM - these rabid No campaigners like yourself are always drumming on about currency, its like a stuck record, currency, currency, currency
Its not like its an important issue, like EU membership
oh.... 😆
It's hard to plan when the people you'll be negotiating with refuse to consider the idea.
@ben to the contrary. The UK has considered the idea and rejected it. So Scotland has clarity and can plan for an alternative. The currency issue should also give Scotland an inkling as to how discussions on other topics on which they pronounce not least the EU are going to go. Scotland needs to plan for a challenging EU discussion including a contingency period where they are potentially not a full member. Scotland should also plan for a central bank and Treasury and how it would intend to fund itself (assuming it runs a budget deficit).
Scotland should wake up to the fact that a country of 5m people doesn't have a lot of negotiating clout (I personally believe the UK with 60m people doesn't have that much clout). Scotland will need to get used to the reality that just because they proclaim something is in their counterparties interest doesn't mean the other side will agree.
The currency "negotiation" with the UK is absolutely a preview of upcoming attractions for an independent Scotland on a global basis.
jambalaya - Member
...Scotland should wake up to the fact that a country of 5m people doesn't have a lot of negotiating clout...
We won't be clouting anyone. Proper negotiating involves trading not thumping.
Edit: oops, forgot the 🙂
The no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing. Recent Polls and Darlings piss poor performance got you lot worried or something? 😆
I'm worried, yes. I'm worried that romantic nationalism will win over common sense and pragmatism, and as a side effect completely fk the rest of us poor bastards in the UK over.
seosamh77 - MemberThe no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing. Recent Polls and Darlings piss poor performance got you lot worried or something
whereas the Yes side have been sneering all along 😆
seosamh77 - Member
The no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing. Recent Polls and Darlings piss poor performance got you lot worried or something?
It's very similar in tone to the lead up to the last Scottish election when the SNP got into government. 🙂
It's as if we are not smart enough to know what's good for our country.
The no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing.
Funnier still is that most of them don't have a vote
richmtb - Member
The no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing.
Funnier still is that most of them don't have a vote
Nor smart enough to understand that the "facts" they are spouting are indeed just opinions and speculation.epicyclo - MemberIt's as if we are not smart enough to know what's good for our country.
Sneering...piss poor.....irony!!! 😉
They may not have the vote but they will control the strings - the ultimate irony. A Yes vote puts Scotland in a weaker position than now. Size wise this has to be an African not an Indian elephant in the room.
He who laughs last......
It's as if we are not smart enough to know what's good for our country.
Lol.. of course you're not. No-one is.
Nor smart enough to understand that the "facts" they are spouting are indeed just opinions and speculation.
That goes for both sides!
richmtb - Member
The no side in this thread are just sneering now, it's quite amusing.
Funnier still is that most of them don't have a vote
Yes, because electoral manipulation to ensure Scots (like myself) who don't live in Scotland but for whom the result of the vote will still potentially have some huge ramifications are not allowed a say.
But then I guess Salmond is worried we will vote No so wants to prevent that.
It's as if we are not smart enough to know what's good for our country.Nor to understand that the "facts" they are spouting are indeed, just opinions and speculation.
Like the fact that you won't have a currency union and if you keep using the pound will have no control over monetary policy for your currency? Is that just opinion and speculation, or is it something which you are smart enough to think is irrelevant?
Thanks for admitting that!molgrips - Member
Nor smart enough to understand that the "facts" they are spouting are indeed just opinions and speculation.
That goes for both sides!
"Facts" such as a currency is an asset etc......in that case, facts is spelt F I C T I O N. Other facts such as scottish government spending on private sector health services matches rUK have the more traditional spelling.
teamhurtmore - Member
"Facts" such as a currency is an asset etc......in that case, facts is spelt F I C T I O N. Other facts such as scottish government spending on private sector health services matches rUK have the more traditional spelling.
and around and around you go.
Currency in itself may not be an asset, but the assets backing it up most certainly are, for one, the 150 billion in gold that the bank of england holds.
Yes, because electoral manipulation to ensure Scots (like myself) who don't live in Scotland but for whom the result of the vote will still potentially have some huge ramifications are not allowed a say.
Electoral manipulation? It's simple, every country in the world does it - people who live in that country get to vote in the elections. The result of the US election has huge ramifications for the rest of the world, should the rest of the world be able to vote in US elections?
And how would you administer it? How Scottish are you? If you're only half Scottish, do you only get half a vote? Or does anybody with a vaguely Scottish name get to vote?
It's not only impossible to administer, it's unfair - why should people who don't live in Scotland get to decide what happens to Scotland? That's what this whole thing is about.
Other facts such as scottish government spending on private sector health services matches rUK have the more traditional spelling.
Would you like to examine exactly how that money is spent? Maybe elaborate on the the different approaches being taken by the Scottish government and the UK one? Then may explain which one is more likely to lead to further privatisation and a US style system? (hint, it's not the Scottish NHS)
Other facts such as scottish government spending on private sector health services matches rUK have the more traditional spelling.
In this case, that fact is spelled "pulled it out of your arse" 😀
Scottish spending on private-sector healthcare is 1/6th of that in rUK, and that's only if you fudge the figures to include locums and suchlike. The more fundamental difference is that in rUK private companies are bidding on healthcare contracts against the NHS, in Scotland they're occasionally hired by the NHS to perform a specific job.
It's simple, every country in the world does it - people who live in that country get to vote in the elections. The result of the US election has huge ramifications for the rest of the world, should the rest of the world be able to vote in US elections?
It seems they can and the rules of administration are fairly straightforward:
http://www.fvap.gov/citizen-voter/reside
Meanwhile in this morning's amusing Better Together gaffe, they're at the Tennent's brewery to tell us how Scottish jobs are dependent on UK companies.
Tennent's is owned by an Irish company 😀
It seems they can:
http://www.fvap.gov/citizen-voter/reside
Yes, well done - that list includes me, by the way. I'm a US citizen but never lived in the US.
However note that important point - I'm a US citizen. How do you define a Scottish citizen?
How do they define US citizens?
Yes, well done - that list includes me, by the way. I'm a US citizen but never lived in the US.
Strange that you're apparently unaware that people who don't live in the US (and have never lived in the US) get to vote in their elections then, and that limiting the franchise to people who currently reside in a country is far from a universal policy.
How do they define US citizens?
I'm sure you can google it - in my case I have an American parent so I inherited citizenship. That only works down one level, by the way, my daughter won't inherit US citizenship because I haven't lived in the US.
We may go around and around - but the DO still can't get it straight. Not can you - gold is good, nothing to do with the pound.
The Scottish NHS outsources services to private companies. It's simple. As the IFS show, the real threat to the NHS in Scotland is the funding cuts that will HAVE to happen post independence. These contrast with the SNPs own admission that under the current system health spending has risen. No wonder the BMJ show that a bigger majority of Scottish doctors want No than the general public. Odd that?
Oh, I assumed from your assertions about the difficulty for Scotland that it was rather more complicated than that. Presumably Scottish citizens could be defined in much the same way, or aren't they smart enough?
We may go around and around - but the DO still can't get it straight.
Ah, good old THM, yet again you turn someone pointing out you're completely wrong into an attack on Alex Salmond 😀
Ben, it's a bit like yS not acknowledging who own most of the oil and whiskey production, isn't it!?!
Oh, I assumed from your assertions about the difficulty for Scotland that it was rather more complicated than that. Presumably Scottish citizens could be defined in much the same way, or aren't they smart enough?
Problem is, there's no sensible way to define "Scottish citizen". Is it anyone with a Scottish parent? If so, how do you track they were resident in Scotland for 10 years as the US requires? How do you even accurately track where someone's parents lived or were born when at the moment we're all UK citizens?
What about people born abroad who have lived in Scotland for a decade or two? What about my mother, US-born, lived here for 35 years before finally acquiring UK citizenship a few years ago? Is she Scottish?
There is no sensible, fair way to do it other than to do it by the people who live in Scotland.
Including people born in Scotland (and maybe even their children) would be too complicated then? You do have birth certificates up there?
How do you plan to define citizenship after independence?
Including people born in Scotland (and maybe even their children) would be too complicated then? You do have birth certificates up there?
This isn't about where you're born, it's about where you choose to live. Don't forget this was all agreed with the UK government.
How do you plan to define citizenship after independence?
http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/who-will-be-eligible-scottish-citizenship-independence-and-future
Problem is, there's no sensible way to define "Scottish citizen".
http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/who-will-be-eligible-scottish-citizenship-independence-and-future
So it's not really that difficult after all.
As shown above, people who don't live in the US get to vote on what happens there, and this vote clearly does affect people who don't currently live in Scotland.
What is your point btw?aracer - Member
Problem is, there's no sensible way to define "Scottish citizen".
> http://www.yesscotland.net/answers/who-will-be-eligible-scottish-citizenship-independence-and-future
br />
So it's not really that difficult after all.