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@seosamh - surely any politician will look to remain employed after either a no or a yes vote ?
@futon the £100bn isn't a "bribe", its nonsensical for Scotland to say they won't take the debt so that has no leverage as it has no credibility. I know your question isn't addressed to me (as a non voter) but it doesn't matter what mandate AS claims to have or will get to try and negotiate a CU, the fact he claims to have such a mandate from a population who have decided to leave the UK will make no difference to Westminster. Scotland has no leverage in this CU/debt discussion. See my post above, those are the likely outcomes.
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.jambalaya - Member
@seosamh - surely any politician will look to remain employed after either a no or a yes vote ?
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.
Possibly yes, but from my personal perspective it's not news. AS and the rest of the SNP aren't going to retire if its a no vote are they, we know that we don't need him to announce it ? Its easy that some of the no campaigners would be very valuable in the negotiations, not least as they are better connected to Westminster.
No I know it is desirable to have as many crossparty people involved form all sides post vote.jambalaya - Member
pretty poor politicking to let it be known before the vote though.Possibly yes, but from my personal perspective it's not news. AS and the rest of the SNP aren't going to retire if its a no vote are they, we know that we don't need him to announce it ? Its easy that some of the no campaigners would be very valuable in the negotiations, not least as they are better connected to Westminster.
Just saying it doesn't look good as a campaigning tactic, lacks confidence.
ninfan - MemberDon't forget you lost Nova Scotia as well
Well,if a random Scottish Lord living somewhere for three years makes something a colony,then that puts the frequent bleating about the Shetlands to bed.
@jambalaya - I'm aware of the UK perspective, and some of the economic context. I'm rather more interested in the iScottish perspective. They must surely have some kind of expectation of what Salmond can achieve? It al seems to be rather 'fingers crossed' at the moment! Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
I don't see any point in trying to predict the result of 18-month negotiations which we haven't started.
Oh, and he's not "my man".
Come on, do you expect your man to come back from Westminster with CU in his pocket, or not?
There's already been at least 2 reply's (3 if you include Ben). It seems as though most of us think it could go either way and reckon things will work out themselves out either way.
Oh, and he's not "my man".
maybe, but he thinks [b]your[/b] Yes vote gives [b]him[/b] his mandate for the BoD and CU
maybe, but he thinks your Yes vote gives him his mandate for the BoD and CU
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
Ah, thats funny, I thought that The Scottish Governments commitment in light of a Yes vote was to work constructively[i] in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom. [/i]?
No?
And, as I've asked before, what if the deal available isn't any good? Will he carry on regardless?a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland
What if:
EU says membership is contingent on an economic plan to bring Scotland in line with European economic cycles and the Euro and following that plan damages the other White Paper commitments?
NATO says that nukes have to stay here to gain membership?
Ah, thats funny, I thought that The Scottish Governments commitment in light of a Yes vote was to work constructively in the best interests of the people of Scotland and of the rest of the United Kingdom. ?
The two are not mutually exclusive - it's in the best interests of the rUK for the split to be quick and amicable, leaving us as friends.
But thats not what you said.
A good example being Currency Union, its clearly in the best interest of Scotland, however its far more questionable whether its in the best interest of the rUK... If it is shown not to be then your 'mandate' falls flat at the first hurdle!
My Yes vote gives him and the whole negotiating team a mandate to negotiate what's best for Scotland.
if I'd known you were the only voter I might have tried harder to convince you one way or the other.
"Should Scotland be an independent country" infers that the mandate is to make Scotland independent.ninfan - Member
But thats not what you said.A good example being Currency Union, its clearly in the best interest of Scotland, however its far more questionable whether its in the best interest of the rUK... If it is shown not to be then your 'mandate' falls flat at the first hurdle!
In relation to the currency this means that AS will go for a CU as that's what he has campaigned on as the best option(I don't agree) but if the CU can't be obtained then the mandate they have is to put in place the next best option. (The pound before you ask)
The negotiating period only goes so far though before we have an election and the mandate falls to someone else to build a new Scotland.
Just posted my vote in!
if I'd known you were the only voter I might have tried harder to convince you one way or the other.
😀
My name appears alongside a bunch of millionaires and billionaires in a letter supporting independence today. Well, I say alongside - it's in the same list. Though they spelled my company name wrong...
oldbloke - Member
What if:
EU says membership is contingent on an economic plan to bring Scotland in line with European economic cycles and the Euro and following that plan damages the other White Paper commitments?
NATO says that nukes have to stay here to gain membership?
We can survive without either.
It would be convenient to have membership of both, but it's not an essential, just an extension of the period of adjustment to being independent.
This is pretty deep:
At the shallower end:
it's in the best interests of the rUK for the split to be quick and amicable, leaving us as friends.
I don't see anything in AS which suggests the split would be quick or amicable. I don't see why a quick separation is in the UK's interests necessarily, keep iS tax revenues coming in and delay any capital spending projects 😛 In any case the March 2016 date is hugely optimistic IMO
@vintagewino, congratulations !
This is pretty deep
Is it a bad sign that I think Craig Murray is a pretty good guy?
In any case the March 2016 date is hugely optimistic IMO
Czechoslovakia split in 12 months. There isn't a country in the world with more experience of this sort of thing than the UK, with all the countries becoming independent from the Empire.
Tempers fraying for some
@piemonster, look at the abuse J K Rowling got on social media. You wonder how people can get so wound up by a children's author? I think the referendum has the potential to be very divisive, whichever side wins. It its a Yes and things are worse the no voters are going to be very vocal and AS is going to do a Robert Mugabe and just keep blaming everything on the colonial English thus doing nothing for cross border relations. If it's a No the Yes camp are going to complain long into the future about an opportunity lost. This is going to be particularly virile if the vote is close?
There isn't a country in the world with more experience of this sort of thing than the UK,
Agreed, In fact when you think about it, we can make it take as long as we like to ensure we get an acceptable negotiated outcome... rUK is under no pressure or commitment to suit Scotland's timescale!
The 2015 general election pretty much scuppers any hope of a 18 month timeframe
You know something. I think we might just get a majority of people voting Yes. This week has seen a surge towards Yes following the debate on Monday night.
Dream on lads. A successful referendum followed by delay by rUK will simply lead to a UDI.
But it's most unlikely to come to that. Westminster is more pragmatic than that.
[url= http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/no-vote-celebration-event-cancelled.1409218635 ]BTW it looks like they've thrown in the towel already.[/url]
I think the tories would be happy with a Yes vote to be honest - they had 1 MP north of the border last time I looked...
Personally I despise Salmond and Cameron equally and I'll be gutted if Scotland votes for independence but IME think that is true for those of us that live near the border. Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
AD - Member
...Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
I think the most likely scenario is us using the £ outwith a CU, so it will be the same £ you are using.
you are what you think you are. I wouldn't let anyone tell you different.AD - Member
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
Personally I don't identify with scottishness or any particular nationality. I know what my roots are but they don't define me.
Without CU it'll be a hell of a mess for friends who live in Scotland but work in England and vice-versa.
Doesn't seem to be a big problem for people in NI who work in Ireland and vice versa.
I fail the Scottishness test of most of the posters on here though - despite being a proud Douglas - I was born in England...
Doesn't matter where you were born, just where you live.
Doesn't matter where you were born
It does to some yes supporters here. Another thread was started the other day to that effect.
do you normally define yourself by the lowest common denominator?athgray - Member
Doesn't matter where you were born
It does to some yes supporters here. Another thread was started the other day to that effect.
Three people I know of have switched to Yes this week, first two were undecided. One of them I am not surprised they decided Yes as it always looked likely. The other one though was swaying to No. It wasn't until after watching the debate and Darling admitting we can use the pound that she changed her mind.
The third person was from the start a No voter, right up until he was filling in his postal vote. Said gut instinct kicked in and he felt sick, he sat for an hour with a drink thinking it through and couldn't in the end allow himself to vote No. So Yes it was.
I think it is going to be so close.
LOL - my 'Scottishness' comments were tongue in cheek - I should have added a smiley.
To be honest I think of myself as British which is probably why the whole independence vote just makes me sad. I work for a global manufacturing company founded by a Scot but now based in England. My comments echo genuine concerns of my workmates/friends who live just north of the border - from their perspective and mine nothing is clear. Not one of them is voting for independence by the way.
I will admit that I don't know anyone who lives in NI and works in Ireland so will bow to Ben's clearly greater experience of it not being a problem in any way.
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England anyway:)
I will admit that I don't know anyone who lives in NI and works in Ireland so will bow to Ben's clearly greater experience of it not being a problem in any way.
I live a few miles from the Dutch Belgian border and work with lots of Belgians – for them it’s a bit of a hastle. From simple things like mobile phone roaming to more important things like healthcare and variations in tax structure. Different taxation can mean that grocery shopping is cheaper in Holland (still a minimum of 6% on all foods), but petrol’s cheaper in Belgium. So as the Scottish and UK administrations move apart there will be winners and losers both sides of the border.
Both charge 21% on childrens clothes though so not such a bright future for childrens clothes shops in Gretna.
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England
Well as most of my English colleagues keep insisting that Hadrian's Wall will need to be rebuilt, a fair chunk may be forced to join us! 🙂
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England anyway:)
I would have thought that also AD, however we are finding out that many fellow Scots don't give two hoots about Cumbria.
Is there a sliding scale by distance of how much I should care about people? Care a lot about people in Cumbria, a bit less in Manchester, don't give a **** about people in Dover? What does proximity to Scotland have to do with how much I care about people?
I care about people everywhere, but I don't see why staying part of the UK has anything to do with that. We can't save Cumbria from the Tories, except perhaps by example.
The only thing the independence campaign care about is greedily keeping the oil money for themselves.
Yup, it's incredibly greedy for people to want to hang on to their country's natural resources and spend or save them wisely. We should give them away like all other countries do.
It would be convenient to have membership of both [EU & NATO], but it's not an essential, just an extension of the period of adjustment to being independent.
In your world. As an FD of a business which exports the majority of its output to the EU, any "adjustment" is something I can't afford. You can talk about the long term all you want but you've got to get through the short term to get there and the short term is quite hard enough thanks.
I have a suspicion that Cumbria (and large parts of the North of England) probably has a lot more in common with Scotland than the South of England
That works two ways of course - the people of the Borders (Cf. the Marches and Reiver country) have a lot more in common with the Northern English than they do with the Highlanders.
That works two ways of course - the people of the Borders (Cf. the Marches and Reiver country) have a lot more in common with the Northern English than they do with the Highlanders.
I've said it many times - I reckon the cultural border crosses somewhere around the north of Birmingham. I'd be happy to split he UK at that point and I suspect that many of the people that live in the northern wastelands would do the same. 😉
oldbloke - Member
In your world. As an FD of a business which exports the majority of its output to the EU, any "adjustment" is something I can't afford. You can talk about the long term all you want but you've got to get through the short term to get there and the short term is quite hard enough thanks.
Better than the long term exit of the UK from the EU.
I have owned substantial businesses (before retirement), and so I think it's safe to presume you have suitable contingency plans in place for either scenario.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28968927
There may be a chance for some of you here yet 😀
You could as well split Scotland across the highland fault line and give independence to Orkney and Shetland then. They could also have their oil.
Better than the long term exit of the UK from the EU
How better? Possible uncertainty as opposed to a yes vote being definite uncertainty? It is not better, honestly, is it.
Still can't quite see UK exit happening. It would require a Tory majority in Westminster for a start and despite Ed Milliband's best efforts I can't quite see that being what runs the next Parliament.
[url= https://au.news.yahoo.com/a/24817901/scottish-referendum-yes-vote-to-independence-could-leave-australia-without-head-of-state-expert-says/ ]I was wavering, but then I realised I could cause shit to the Australians[/url]
Yup, it's incredibly greedy for people to want to hang on to their country's natural resources and spend or save them wisely. We should give them away like all other countries do.
Damned right you selfish barstad. What about the rich people, they need tax breaks paying for.
[img] 
[/img]
That graphic is why I don't think we're better together. It shows me precisely why Westminster does not have Scotland's best interests at heart. English waters north of Aberdeen - **** off.
The third person was from the start a No voter, right up until he was filling in his postal vote. Said gut instinct kicked in and he felt sick, he sat for an hour with a drink thinking it through and couldn't in the end allow himself to vote No. So Yes it was.I think it is going to be so close.
If my Tuesday night hill running mob is representative of Scotland as a whole (which I'm pretty sure it is) it's going to be a Yes vote at about 90% of the votes.
Shame none of the polls agree with you 🙄
Don't forget all the oil on the Clyde too, what utter pish.
Shame none of the polls agree with you
This is true, and tbh I don't share Epicyclo errr, epic confidence. When it comes to the result I don't know what will happen.
Yes voters, the more vocal ones. Are increasingly confident however, how much is based on genuine rise for support, I've no idea.
Polling for this referendum is a bit more tricky than usual elections however. It's an unusual event. I wouldn't be over confident in their accuracy tbh.
The polls could very well be out by a certain amount either way
Yes voters, the more vocal ones. Are increasingly confident however, how much is based on genuine rise for support, I've no idea.
My thinking is that when and prior to the referendum debate kicking off Yes voters were by far the quietest of the two and least likely to come out and show their support.
The subject was new to a lot of people and it was much easier for No voters to be vocal against the idea of independence as initially they were seen to have a huge majority. All that has happened is that it has taken some time for the Yes voters to find their voice and realise that they are not in as small numbers as was initially thought. With this realisation comes the confidence to speak out more and maybe now making up for 'lost time'.
and yet it's nowhere near being the top topic of discussion with anyone I talk to, even though the media seem to keep banging on about it. I think it was said away up there ^ that it's too esoteric for most folk.futon river crossing - Member
So will iScotland be able to secure a CU?? Yes or No !!! This [i]seems[/i] to be the central question of the campaign.
My observations from a 2-day circumnavigation of the Cairngorms are that both campaigns are now almost equal on the "Lamp-post Challenge". However, while most other YES posters are being displayed in the gardens and windows of ordinary houses, the massive NO banners are mostly located in fields or the grounds of houses that can't be seen unless you dare go past the gate lodge
AW oh, squeaky bum time. Even the daily mail is panicking! 😆
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AS is going to do a Robert Mugabe
so just to recap: we've got Ben that thinks Scotland was a one party state and you that thinks Scotland will be a one party state. enjoy this brief window of multiparty democracy while it lasts, lads!
piemonster - Member
This is true, and tbh I don't share Epicyclo errr, epic confidence...
But it's based on the polls.
They have wildly understated the actual result for the SNP each election I've seen since I returned to Scotland, so I have made a wild allowance for that.
Thus if the polls say level pegging, it's got to be a landslide. 🙂
20 days...
this is my biggest hope. I've no idea how it will turn out and I'll abide by the result(until the campaign starts up again 😆 ), but I've a feeling the polls aren't taking into account to reactivated scheme vote! The masses are rising! 🙂Thus if the polls say level pegging, it's got to be a landslide.
Well it seems none of you have any confidence in Salmond securing CU! If it's yes, it'll certainly be interesting, just imagine how big this thread will become 😉
Don't really think it's a lack of confidence, just a lack of importance.
Well it seems none of you have any confidence in Salmond securing CU! If it's yes, it'll certainly be interesting, just imagine how big this thread will become
The persistence of the No campaigns hammering away on the CU subject isn't for Yes voters. It is (in theory) for the undecideds and the No voters.
It's those you want to ask, if you want a response from someone that considers it important to which way they'll vote.
They have wildly understated the actual result for the SNP each election I've seen since I returned to Scotland, so I have made a wild allowance for that.
It's not an election. Your not voting for the SNP.
The FTs take on the issues of polling and lack of useful comparable data.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1d9028a0-2d49-11e4-aca0-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BiepppEB
The subject was new to a lot of people and it was much easier for No voters to be vocal against the idea of independence as initially they were seen to have a huge majority. All that has happened is that it has taken some time for the Yes voters to find their voice and realise that they are not in as small numbers as was initially thought. With this realisation comes the confidence to speak out more and maybe now making up for 'lost time'.
Curiously, it's the No voters amongst those that I know who feel they have no voice. And are keeping quiet in the face of a very vocal Yes movement that believes (rightly or wrongly) it has the moral high ground.
I met some young conservatives recently. They seemed very earnest, but I wasn't convinced they represented my best interests. Too much tweed and elbow patches. Which really seems to be a key difference between the two movements, as Scotroutes alluded to, Yes signs are primarily on peoples gardens/hedges etc, No thanks banners are generally on farm land (from what I've seen)
On the vandalism front, I've seen a couple more damaged/removed Yes signs.
Not really. My point still stands, no has given Salmond an endorsement.
piemonster - Member
"They have wildly understated the actual result for the SNP each election I've seen since I returned to Scotland, so I have made a wild allowance for that."
It's not an election. Your not voting for the SNP.
I realise that, and that's why I am so optimistic. The vote will not be along purely party lines, but on the issue.
This time there's a load of other voters supporting independence, eg "Labour for Independence", "LibDems for Independence", and even Tories "Wealthy Nation", whose votes would have gone along party lines previously.
Those previous polls seriously underestimated the actual vote for a party whose main platform was independence, so I am assuming and hoping they are using the same techniques for the referendum.
19 days to go....
I'll have a mooch around and see if I can find the relevant articles. But I believe that at least some of the official polling companies are weighting their results to 'try' to account for the referendum factor rather than just repeating the election methodology.
Can't for the life of me remember who said that or where.
I am assuming and hoping
In an event as unusual as this, I wouldn't assume anything. My gut instinct is telling me that I should place a cheeky wee bet whilst the odds are still favourable for a good return.
Hmm, actually.
I'm not a gambling man but I can spare £20.
The subject was new to a lot of people and it was much easier for No voters to be vocal against the idea of independence as initially they were seen to have a huge majority. All that has happened is that it has taken some time for the Yes voters to find their voice and realise that they are not in as small numbers as was initially thought. With this realisation comes the confidence to speak out more and maybe now making up for 'lost time'.
I disagree. 6 months ago this thread was started at a time when yes supporters were barracking politicians. What do you know 6 months later this is still continuing. Yes supporters have always been noisier. I have already postal voted no, and have never voted UKIP, BNP, Tory and certainly don't live in a country estate. I am very wary about saying I am a no voter in public, and don't know how much I take part in parties if the result is yes. I may even have to lie about how I voted.
I may even have to lie about how I voted.
I know some that already are. Okay, just one. The individual in question feels somewhat intimidated.
I do wonder how I'd be feeling if my social and work circumstances were different. I'm quite isolated from the general Hoi Polloi. Work involves a ridiculously disproportionate number of ex light blue uniform types.
And socially, I only really know hill runners, cyclists, and scientists. Again, with an unusually high number of non-Scots in that equation.
Looks like the establishment is pretty keen to push the undecided voters into a Yes vote 🙂
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?oh=eca5038597119c11b1a49e688bebd1a0&oe=547E825F&__gda__=1416647725_c91f37d28b598ac3f051e2a1c297f31d[/img]
And socially, I only really know hill runners, cyclists, and scientists. Again, with an unusually high number of non-Scots in that equation
Yes, me too, and most are voting Yes - though that may be because this is the West End. Ish. Okay it's Maryhill. But we got in Le Monde 😉
Project feart again I see
big_n_daft - MemberProject feart again I see
Posted 21 seconds ago #
Or quotes from among others the current and possible future PM's