It does in Ernie's world.
There might be two reasons for him losing his seat, it doesn't have to be one or the other
Well yes, the voters of Rossendale and Darwen could have bucked the national trend on general election day and reelected Jake Berry in what was a fairly marginal seat, I guess. So there could of course have been many reasons why he failed to get reelected
As for the apparent suggestion that Berry was/is of no asset to the Tory Party or any other party that's one opinion obviously. But here's another one
Why ex-Tory chairman Jake Berry's defection makes Reform UK a more serious proposition
The party's vetting procedures for candidates have been somewhere between inadequate and nonexistent - Nigel Farage has admitted as much.
If former cabinet ministers are starting to join Reform then it could soon start to look like the more professional political outfit Farage has been promising.
And that is a seriou problem for Labour, and particularly for the Tories.
It does in Ernie's world.
And maybe in binners world too eh?
The reason he lost his seat is because most people in that constituency think (quite correctly) that he’s an utter self-serving @*%#
I am perfectly happy to accept that there was more than one reason for Berry losing his seat, I merely focused on the primary reason that the Tories lost 251 seats last July. Which is that they were deeply unpopular and Reform split their vote.
more than one reason for Berry losing his seat, I merely focused on the primary reason that the Tories lost 251 seats last July.
i think you're crossing the streams of your own argument.
On one hand he lost his seat, just like every Tory last year - not because of him. Oh no.
Yet he's a massive asset for Reform and not just another transactional exMP trying to get another spell on the train of gravy
Yet he's a massive asset for Reform
I have no idea if Jake Berry is a massive asset for Reform, I know absolutely nothing about him. It's ITV's political editor who believes that Berry will be something of an asset to Reform
My only comment was with regards to Reform polling very well in his seat at last year's general election, 50% more than the average they received nationally. It seems reasonable to assume they were a very important factor in Berry losing his seat.
I had no idea that my comment would turn out to be controversial ! 😆
If former cabinet ministers are starting to join Reform then it could soon start to look like the more professional political outfit Farage has been promising.
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers.
That argument is not credible IMO.
What will be the best way to protect my pension from a Farage government?
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers.
Well yes, I got the impression that is exactly the sort of conclusion which ITV's political correspondent has come to.
I am assuming that ITV's Carl Dinnen is referring in the eyes of potential Reform voters and not expressing his personal political preferences.
Having former Cabinet ministers will quite possibly boost the credibility of Reform for some voters. On the other hand some might be put off voting Reform by the likes of Suella Braverman, who knows? Maybe a pollster should ask that precise question and we might have a better idea.
potential Reform voters
Who, I would say, are the type of person, on average, who are more likely to say "well he/she was in the cabinet after all, so they can't be totally useless". The kind of person who assumes Prince Andrew can't be a nonce "because he's a prince".
I guess when anyone who has an IQ of more than 85 looks intelligent to a certain type of person, then they're more likely to be impressed by supposed credentials. No matter how token or tenuous.
🤷♂️
Hey! Siri.
Define Irony.
By that loose (and poor) reasoning Nadine Dorries, Matt Hancock, Suella Braverman or Chris Grayling would also be assets to Reform simply by dint of their having been cabinet ministers
"I'm voting Reform, because the Torys were useless. Seeing all these ex-cabinet members in Reform adds to the party's credibility. I wonder what party they were cabinet members for"
Perhaps I'm assuming too much critical thinking ability...
The problem is that there are a multitude of reasons why more than a quarter of voters are now saying they will vote Reform.
For some it is because they saw the last Tory government as useless, for some it is because they see the current "Labour" government as useless, for some it is because they agree with Suella Braverman that the Tories were not right-wing enough, and for others it is because Farage claims a commitment to nationalise things which neither the Tories nor Labour say they will.
However I think the single biggest reason is that all three established Westminster parties are now discredited in the eyes of the electorate. For that reason I do believe that it is risky for Reform to parade former government ministers with the aim of increasing their image as a party of government.
It is also the reason why I don't believe that Nigel Farage will ever entertain the idea of a merger with the Tories, it would be daft for him to do so imo.
On the other side of the political spectrum you could get a similar dilemma. If a new left-wing social democratic party was formed in response to Labour's failures, and as an alternative to Labour, would it be to their advantage if former Labour ministers joined them? I not sure that's a question which can be easily answered.
An interesting analysis from the Guardian
There is one saving grace for the Conservatives. There may come a point where it becomes much more unpalatable for Reform to continue to act as a retirement home for failed Conservative politicians.
Berry’s defection is probably still a net positive, but if hordes of his ilk begin to follow then there will come a time when that becomes deeply awkward for a party that has made gains on the back of Conservative failures.
Are we taking bets on who the next defector is then?
Cruella is nailed on, surely?
Well if you read the above Guardian link it suggests that it wouldn't meet with the approval of her husband :
There was one interesting voice warning Farage against the temptation to accept more former Conservative MPs. It came from Rael Braverman – the husband of Suella – who is now a high-profile supporter of Reform. “Reform must not become Tory 2.0,” he posted on X – following it with a dismissive – “Jake who?”
Edit : Tbh I don't understand what his stance is, on the one hand he has become a Reform supporter but on the other he doesn't want other Tories to join, apparently.
seems like the UK's fastest growing party, and their X ticker showing membership numbers might have become an embarrassment as it's now going down by about 3000 a week. How long before that's removed?
it's now going down by about 3000 a week.
That's misleading. One week it went down by 3000, the week that their chairman Zia Yusuf temporarily resigned for two days, otherwise it's not going down by 3000 a week.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/exclusive/reform-party-membership-nigel-farage/
Despite the week’s turbulence, Reform UK’s membership remains higher than it was at the start of May - up 4,775 members over five weeks.
And there is no reason to expect Reform UK's membership to fall at a time when they are riding so high in the polls. The very latest poll out yesterday gave Reform a very comfortable 9% lead over Labour
I see your numbers from a month ago but maybe look at the current ones. Who's being misleading, I'm talking about what's happening now, not what happened in the past.
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/reform-membership-drops-by-10000-395360/
Granted, may be a short term trend, perhaps this time on the basis of eg: the implosion at LCC that means that a 19 year old student is now responsible for children and family services. Why voters think Reform would make a good government - frankly no idea other than as a protest against current parties but as I said before, after another 4 years I predict that opinions will have changed on both.
On the other hand some might be put off voting Reform by the likes of Suella Braverman, who knows? Maybe a pollster should ask that precise question and we might have a better idea.
I suspect that a bit like Brexit, the SNP or Labour they'll be popular as an abstract concept but less popular when forced to define and then deliver policies because then the people who thought you stood for their views, find out you don't actually.
e.g. if they did win, their popularity would plummet with the "stop the boats" crowd when the fist boat lands on day 1 and they're impotent to stop it, just like every other government. Or I suspect the £40million they've apparently saved by abandoning a councils net-zero targets might be less appealing to their voters when insulation subsidies disappear, a flood defense doesn't get built, the bus service stops running, etc.
☝️The fact that any Reform government is more than likely going to be a failure is a given IMHO
What also looks increasingly likely is that Reform will be the largest party after the next general election, they might even form a majority government.
And that's the situation which needs to be grasped.
And there is no reason to expect Reform UK's membership to fall at a time when they are riding so high in the polls. The very latest poll out yesterday gave Reform a very comfortable 9% lead over Labour
Those stats suggest Reform and the Tories are currently gaining from the LibDems and Greens.
If you are referring to the opinion poll above no, it doesn't suggest that. It suggests that Tory and Reform support has increased but it doesn't suggest where these gains come from.
Presumably you are assuming that these gains must have come from the LibDems and the Greens because their support has fallen, but the gains that the Tories and Reform have made could just as easily have come from Labour, and if support for Labour has remained static that could easily be because they in turn have made gains from the LibDems and the Greens.
Those stats suggest Reform and the Tories are currently gaining from the LibDems and Greens.
MoreInCommon arent the most accurate of pollsters
I wonder if thats anything to do with Corbyns mooted party that would do far more damage to teh greens than it would labour
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
MoreInCommon arent the most accurate of pollsters
It's a Find Out Now poll not a More in Common poll and it is in line with other polls when you take the 2-3% margin of error into account.
This Techne poll out today is very similar
https://www.techneuk.com/tracker/
he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
So how come he wasn't anywhere as popular 12 months ago as he now? Didn't the above issues exist before July 4 2024?
The elephant in the room that some people choose to ignore is the "Labour" government which didn't exist before July 4 last year.
Nigel Farage has a lot to thank Sir Keir Starmer for.
SKS lost 200,000 labour members since he took over to November last year, and estimated to be over 10% more since, although labour have stopped sharing membership numbers now as they are haemorrhaging members at such a rate.
But the reality is both reform and labour will boast about gaining members, and brush over losing members, but its only a PR operation. They both largely ignore the membership to do what the big money backers tell them to do, which is what we expect reform to do, but is a much bigger disappointment that labour are also so detached from their membership, and by extension the voters.
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
Once you've given in to the bigotry that Reform prey upon you give away any dignity you may have had and any standards you may have previously held public figures to.
Once the **** switch has been pressed it is very difficult to turn it off again.
I think whats interesting about farage and reform is that no matter what the scandal is or how many of his MPs get fired, quit or generally shit the bed, he stays popular because racism/uniparty/conspiracies/left behind/smokesfags/beer in hand photoshoot/hate immigrants/woke is bad/public services etc etc
Once you've given in to the bigotry that Reform prey upon you give away any dignity you may have had and any standards you may have previously held public figures to.
Once the **** switch has been pressed it is very difficult to turn it off again.
The really staggaring thing is Farrage is all for selling the NHS off to the americans... the NHS already has its issues with private sector knives in its back...
I mean, who looks at data like this, and thinks, "yes! I want some of that!"
£210 per vial without insurance...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47491964
And that's just one example of one drug...
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
A couple of years ago, I went through a mini phase watching youtube vids of Americans who were living in Europe and the UK, talking about their life experiences, I don't think any of them had anything but gushing praise for European and UK healthcare, quite a few of them did mention they were a bit worried about it before hand because of the propaganda they were exposed to back home.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
Those videos are really interesting, when they discover the nightmare "socialism" actually helps ordinary folk live better.
Usually too late by then. The majority of folk are easily pleased if they think an 'other' group are getting their comeuppance - even if their own lives get poorer too.
Sad to say. But some people relish feeling like they're punching down because it's all they've got.
The majority of folk are easily pleased if they think an 'other' group are getting their comeuppance - even if their own lives get poorer too.
Nah, unlike you the majority of people are not misanthropic Danny. Most people's lives aren't so empty that they feel the need to hate others.
Obviously some do but the majority of people in my experience are not motivated by hatred.
Upset someone with this.
Met a couple of folk today on a ride, moved over from Slovakia 18 years ago with two daughters aged 9 and 12. Parents still working antisocial shifts in their warehouse jobs, one daughter is now a nurse, the other has a PhD and lectures at a red brick uni.
Farage and his anti immigration cronies can **** right off.
Nah, unlike you the majority of people are not misanthropic Danny
I'll agree that it's not a majority, but it's a significant and growing minority. See responses when free school meals for all children are mentioned. I hear a fair chunk of people grumbling about it.
I totally agree with Nigel Farage when he says it is a "funny thing" that Donald Trump won't be addressing the UK Parliament during is unprecedented second state visit laid on by the Labour government, in fact I think it's hilarious!
Presumably Sir Keir Starmer's advisors have figured out that Trump, who as a massive narcissist is notoriously hypertensive, would likely be embarrassed by MPs who don't share Starmer's sycophantic fawning of Trump, especially SNP, Green, and Independent, MPs
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1944749273658126475/
Sorry Nigle, I think there is an obvious answer to that question
Trump should visit Clacton, give Farage a bit of a dilemma....
Im looking forward to Trumps visit to Scotland. He will be greeted with noisy disapproval I am sure and the Scots police have a reputation for being much more neutral and allowing of protest that the Met. I'm sure Trump will claim they are cheering for him. Perhaps he will not show his face in public at all - I'm sure his advisors will tell him not to
"If you’re a criminal, I am putting you on notice today that from 2029 or whenever that may be, either you obey the law or you will face very serious justice,”
Surely that is likely to put a lot of his supporters off?
Surely that is likely to put a lot of his supporters off?
And his own MPs
What a joke... Halfing the crime rate? What's he gonna do, magic up 100% more police? Never mind how long it will take, how's it funded?
Is he going to create a USA style paramilitary force like trump has done with ICE?
Trump style promises. And they work. See 2016.
What a joke... Halfing the crime rate? What's he gonna do, magic up 100% more police? Never mind how long it will take, how's it funded?
Luckily for him a lot of people won't be too bothered about details. And they won't be watching any shows where people are asking him about those details.
What a joke... Halfing the crime rate? What's he gonna do, magic up 100% more police? Never mind how long it will take, how's it funded?
Luckily for him a lot of people won't be too bothered about details. And they won't be watching any shows where people are asking him about those details.
Unfortunately correct.
Sarah Pochin, the Reform MP has just been interviewed by Matt Chorley on Five Live.
Dear god, what a weapons grade dimwit.
It goes without saying that her defence and justification for Nige’s earlier brainfart was less than convincing, to say the least.
She’s literally making it up as she goes along, just like her boss. It all just falls apart at the most cursory of questioning
Matt Chorley’s appraisal: “You just point at random things you don’t like, without coming up with any details like how any of it is going to be funded”
Give it a listen. It’s embarrassing
I hope he heads up to Aberdeen this weekend to indulge in his usual asskissing of the orange bawbag,then gets battered by eggs, before hiding in a pub.
What a joke... Halfing the crime rate? What's he gonna do, magic up 100% more police?
Just de-fund a load more stuff, there'll be no-one to respond to crimes and no-one to log it all, so it all goes un-recorded, hey presto, half the crime. Fool proof.
Watched an interesting short from 'a different bias'
In it a chap was saying that farage keeps spouting off in the media about how channel crossing migrants automatically receive a free home(not true) free money(partly true, though its a small amount)
So in reality, anyone doing that dangerous crossing could have been spurred on by farages 'claims'
I would like to see a scenario or a reporter team at the French side camp, speaking to a migrant/s where he holds up a newspaper or picture of farage and tells the audience that this guy(farage) is promising them free home/money when they land in Britain, and this is the reason they are attempting the crossing.
Then one of the tv media runs it as a story, blaming farage and implying that he himself is partly responsible for attracting people to come to Britain.
It would be very hard for him to argue against. Though he would try and probably look even more stupid for doing so.
Just de-fund a load more stuff, there'll be no-one to respond to crimes and no-one to log it all, so it all goes un-recorded, hey presto, half the crime. Fool proof.
My first though was that the ONS Crime survey was clearly going to be decreed woke and a waste of money that could be spent on Tommy Robinsons mounting legal costs.
@dynamite Suella Braverman and the Tories had the same problem with their Rwanda fiasco.
On the one hand they dealt with any criticism by emphasising that Rwanda would be practically paradise for refugees and how they would be treated with humanity and dignity
And on the other hand they also emphasised that it would be so awful to be sent to Rwanda that those seeking asylum would be put off making the dangerous journey to the UK in the first place.
What a joke... Halfing the crime rate? What's he gonna do, magic up 100% more police? Never mind how long it will take, how's it funded?
A good summary of Nige’s fantasyland ‘I Am The Law’ speech…
I love this line, brilliant :
Sarah is almost in tears as she goes on to say that most Afghan migrants are potential sex offenders. How she yearns for the days when you could rely on all rapists to be white.
Mind you I also liked the last couple of sentences in the article :
Hillier ends by asking what has been his highlight of his first year in office. “Easy,” says Starmer: walking into Downing Street for the first time. Which rather suggests it has all been downhill from there.
Tougher standard of police officer on the streets.
Looks like he wants to go all ‘Judge Dredd’ and have the police strike fear into the evil hearts of all criminals.
Just heard Farage on the radio calling for tougher police, looks like Judge Dredd's time has come at last.
Police officers should now apparently not just be male (and white, obviously) but also ‘burly’
Sarah Pochin was bemoaning the ‘recent’ dumping of height restrictions for police officers and then had it pointed out to her that this happened in the early 1970’s
They really do see the world through sepia-tinted glasses
Burly Bobbie’s on the beat, empire, jumpers for goalposts….
Sarah Pochin
Brainless, hatchet-faced islamophobe.
Can we also go back to having intelligent politicians that don't dumb everything down to innocuous (or not) soundbites with blatant replacement of fact with fiction?
Can we also go back to having intelligent politicians that don't dumb everything down to innocuous (or not) soundbites with blatant replacement of fact with fiction?
The problem is soundbites sell -
"I'll cut crime by half!" is a much easier sell then a wordy nuanced plan with explanation of where the funding is coming from, to increase police or improve the log-jam in the courts and jails etc. Will it be tax raises? will the money be pulled from other government spending such as education, social care or NHS?
These are all thorny, complex questions that require real plans and complex answers.
Stop the boats!!!!1111one
Can we also go back to having intelligent politicians that don't dumb everything down to innocuous (or not) soundbites with blatant replacement of fact with fiction?
Of course, that's easily done. But if they tell people that solutions are long, slow, complicated things, that might see them slightly worse off in the pocket to live in a society that makes them feel much better off... well...
Farage pledges elite force of hefty, red-faced men
The problem is soundbites sell -
Labour won the last general election on nothing more than sound bites which is the principle reason why support for Labour has collapsed to a previously never before seen level for a party in its first year of government.
Voters didn't know what they were voting for last July beyond the sound bites offered to them and once they discovered that there was no actual substance behind the sound bites they quickly lost confidence in Labour.
These were the five sound bites which won Labour the 2024 general election:
1) Kickstart economic growth
2) Make Britain a clean energy superpower
3) Take back our streets
4) Break down barriers to opportunity
5) Build an NHS fit for the future
Can we also go back to having intelligent politicians that don't dumb everything down
No. We can't.
Social Media has 'gamified' and commoditised our politics. X/Twitter, FB, Threads TicTok are essential a casino, and Civic debate from commentators, politicians, journalists, member of the public is now playing directly to our minds in the same way. The game is maximizing re-tweets and likes, nothing else is nearly as powerful. It's why those folks up there have no idea what Frarage really stands for, and t's changing the way the people both talk to each and behave in real life.
Can we also go back to having intelligent politicians that don't dumb everything down to innocuous (or not) soundbites with blatant replacement of fact with fiction?
Why would you when a majority can be won over with simplistic shite like "Take Back Control"?
Politics reflects the electorate it is its job to appeal to.
The problem is soundbites sell -
Labour won the last general election on nothing more than sound bites which is the principle reason why support for Labour has collapsed to a previously never before seen level for a party in its first year of government.
Voters didn't know what they were voting for last July beyond the sound bites offered to them and once they discovered that there was no actual substance behind the sound bites they quickly lost confidence in Labour.
These were the five sound bites which won Labour the 2024 general election:
1) Kickstart economic growth
2) Make Britain a clean energy superpower
3) Take back our streets
4) Break down barriers to opportunity
5) Build an NHS fit for the future
I'd argue Labour won mostly because they are not the tories, or further right leaning than the tories, and reform took a lot of tory votes too -although I'm not naive enough to think soundbites didn't play thier part.
I'd argue Labour won mostly because they are not the tories,
But isn't that now also Reform UK's main appeal?
Reform UK's support appears to be drawn primarily from disaffected Tory voters who have been attracted by Nigel Farage's empty sound bites.
I am happy to concede that Sir Keir Starmer only improved on Jeremy Corbyn's worse general election result by just 2% but he too did exactly the same thing as Nigel Farage is currently doing and tried to woo disaffected Tory voters with easy sound bites.
Why do we have to keep wooing Tory voters, why can't people work to attract new voters?
There's about 27million votes out there waiting if they can be engaged.
https://electoral-reform.org.uk/this-years-general-election-left-millions-of-voices-unheard/
Why do we have to keep wooing Tory voters, why can't people work to attract new voters?
Very much this. A party that offers a vision of a better future for society resulting in a better future for the individuals in that society should be filling the void, but they either aren't there, or are not getting the airplay that the current bellends are getting.
Why do we have to keep wooing Tory voters, why can't people work to attract new voters?
Because it is much easier to say to voters that you completely agree with them than to try to engage with people who feel disconnected from politics.
Especially when you lack any genuine convictions yourself.
The proof is in your link...... historically low voter turnout, huge landslide victory for Labour.
I totally agree with the sentiments behind your comment though.
The conspriacy theorist in me says that making voter registration difficult for poor people in precarious situations is the real reason for popular (gutter) press objections to a free national identity card. When moving to France I was delighted to find how easy it made formalities, that was decades ago. Now there's France Connect things are a step easier again. I wanted to sign the petition on the pesticide law so logged onto France Connect and it was done in seconds (anyone legally resident in France can sign the petition should any STW French residents want to).
Why do we have to keep wooing Tory voters, why can't people work to attract new voters?
An important piece of the puzzle, is not energising people to come and vote to "stop you". Depressingly, one of the strongest motivations to vote is to "stop" someone you see as dangerous. At previous elections, people have turned out in numbers to stop Labour from winning. Many of those historically voted for a Conservative MP to keep a Labour party they saw as dangerous out of office. At the last election, while many people turned out to stop the Tories from winning, plenty of others stayed at home rather than turn out to stop Labour.
One hope is that at the next election people turn out to stop Farage winning. Will they? I currently doubt it. But similar things have happened a lot in Europe in recent years. Who knows...?
No one I have ever voted for has ever been elected (Tory heartland) it really isn't worth me bothering - millions of others obviously don't bother & who can blame them when their effort is basically a waste of their time. At least with PR every vote would in someway count.
I think the work that has to be done is to actually get some ‘likeable’ politicians to the forefront.
As opposed to just sitting it out knowing that the next leader will be someone who isn’t Tory or Labour it’s allowing the politicians to be lazy.
Behind the scenes you can guarantee that reform are working hard on the social media or some one else is happily doing it for them, with the steady drip drip of how lawless the U.K. is. amongst the cat videos.
Dickyboy. We have only ever had a Tory mp……..until last year. I joined a party ,became a volunteer and we now have a Lib Dem mp.
Dont give up ,get active.
