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"The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates."
A 20% increase in the lifetime chances of getting cancer over people born 30 years earlier is quite startling.
Seems that some of it is down to more diagnosis of cancer and some is down to obesity and diet. I wonder if they will find a link to the 'plastic age' of pollution and if so, what can be done?
As a kid I wrote a story about how the lag time between cause and effect could wipe out humanity but my story was based on early exposure to specific plastics causing reduced fertility and sterility 20 years later. Basically someone invented a super plastic for babies feeding bottles that cleaned the liquid to make it safe. The device was used all over the world and then 20 years later the birth rate started dropping steeply. My teacher at the time said it was a very well written story but I should see the school psychologist and 11 year olds shouldn't think like that.
Its 5G I tell thee!!....
An interesting question re plastics. We don't know yet, but we DO know that we have massively reduced other pollutants. Smoke from wood and coal fires is known to be very harmful, and everyone was surrounded by that all the time for most of human history. So are the plastics worse than the smoke and industrial chemicals in it? Dunno.
It isn't that simple though.
We are living longer, yes there are more triggers and chemicals increasing risk.
But there is also higher detection now. I have often wondered if benign cancers are included in the numbers too (bcc). Plus some cancers are ones that people die with rather than from.
My aunt had a form of chronic leukaemia when she died that no one knew about until she went into hospital just before she died.
Seems that some of it is down to more diagnosis of cancer and some is down to obesity and diet.
I've always assumed that diagnosis and treatment of other diseases, plus a reduction in traffic, industrial, domestic and military deaths would leave cancer as the most common outcome for the majority.
Yes, detection and reporting are a thing. My Mum was diagnosed with gluten intolerance in her late 60s, because she went to her doctor to talk about it. Her mother lost loads of weight and became rather frail at about the same age, but didn't go to the doctor because back then old people were prim and proper and put up with ailments rather than talking about them. They didn't go in saying 'Dr, I have terrible guts and the galloping shits all the time'.
Also - in the 80s people would go to hot places on package tours and 'sunbathing' was a legitimate and popular activity. And the same people as kids would run around all summer with no shirt on getting burned raw without sun-cream, so I suspect a fair number of those cancer cases are skin related, even the benign kinds that the doc zaps off whilst you wait.
Agreed, cancer is primarily a disease of aging and a sedentary life (absolutely not all, but this are the most significant risks), so by eliminating a lot of other causes it leaves certain diseases cancer, heart diseases, and stuff like diabetes.
The living longer is another thing. My Uncle was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer a few years ago, but was told that's not what is going to get him. He's been well, but is developing dementia, and that's progressing, not the cancer.
so by eliminating a lot of other causes it leaves certain diseases cancer, heart diseases, and stuff like diabetes.
...and back to the old question of do we make people ive too long these days.
People used to die in their 60's yet we have found ways to stop us all doing that to a large degree. Cells will start to change over time.
I guess what is less important is the 1/2 will get cancer, but are people getting cancer younger?
Mrs FD feels like currently she is chopping more limbs off at a younger age than she was doing, but thats only looking at short term data effected by COVID
“The lifetime risk of cancer increased
Also bear in mind that there are chronic cancers - like ovarian and prostate that aren't necessarily going to kill you ( or even in some cases, won't even cause any symptoms at all) that are detected now that perhaps weren't before
Alot of men get prostate cancer, but most folks that get it apparently die of something else due to age before the cancer kills them
As has been pointed out, people are living longer. You have to die of something unfortunately
Seems that some of it is down to more diagnosis of cancer and some is down to obesity and diet. I wonder if they will find a link to the ‘plastic age’ of pollution and if so, what can be done?
As others have suggested, the glaringly obvious correlation is with people now living longer lives.
Cancer predominantly affects the elderly, much more so than you might think, IIRC.
What about the other half of me?
As a kid I wrote a story about how the lag time between cause and effect could wipe out humanity but my story was based on early exposure to specific plastics causing reduced fertility and sterility 20 years later.
I'd like to have been at the parents evening when that came up
You have to die of something unfortunately
I've been doing my own research on that, it's disputed.
...at least you can be rest assured you'll go in some terrible power tool related accident!! "I'll just take a little shaving off this, ooops!" 🤕
'…at least you can be rest assured you’ll go in some terrible power tool related accident!! “I’ll just take a little shaving off this, ooops!” 🤕'
Funnily enough, when I was discussing giving up smoking with my Dr about 20 years ago he said I should do it for the fitness reasons and not worry about cancer. When I asked why he explained that with my non-risk averse attitude dying of old age was not something to concern me.
I have never been that fussed about living forever but nice to have a medical diagnosis on the matter.
I assumed it was a multiple combination of more triggers/harm in environment, longer life and better diagnosis.
Don't worry, our brave government is fixing the problem by starving the NHS of money, which will reduce life expectancy and slow down diagnoses.
Can't get cancer if you're already dead.
…and back to the old question of do we make people ive too long these days.
Are those figures global? Life expectancy and diagnosis in a lot of places not in the west has increased dramatically in 30 years.
I recall an (I assume apocryphal) story about a foreign medical student asked why he wanted to be a pediatrician not an oncologist and he replied "no one has cancer in Benin" and it's sort of true for both reasons,
In the same 30 years life expectancy in Africa has increased by 20%, you're now likely to reach 60yrs as opposed to 50yrs in the 90s, (and 40yrs in the 60s). [Edit, globally it's up from 54 to 73 in from 1990, that's a colossal 35% increase]
Add to that they probably wouldn't look either as the limited money was better spent on the cheap detection and treatment of eg cholera than the expensive detection of cancer you're unlikely to bother about any how.
Now people are living long enough that it might be a problem plus detection and treatment we had in the west in the 90s is now cheaper so it's more likely to be deployed across that older population too.
Increased sugar intake, seed oils and ultra processed foods. Just saying.
I have a theory about this.....it's all the fault of Doctors.
I started developing this theory about 30yrs ago. Yeah I was tired all the time, and jeepers, I could pee for Britain, but I was otherwise okay until I went to the Doctor and then I had Diabetes.
That time about 10yrs ago when I lost control on a steep muddy slope and twisted my ankle? I hobbled about for a few days until my wife insisted I go see the Doctor, and surprise, surprise. Suddenly it was broken.
Likewise a couple of years later when I fluffed a trick on the snowboard and tweaked my back. I'm pretty sure it was a muscle pull that I could've stretched out, but no, the Doctor proclaimed I had broken my back.
More recently, during lockdown when I had an upset stomach and botty problems? I thought it'd be an easy fix with changes to my diet? Oh no, I was eventually sent to the Doctor (after the end of the 1st lockdown), who decided it wasn't an upset stomach, it was cancer. I was going to cut down on the gin and maybe, just maybe the cheese but the Doctor decided it would be better to have radiotherapy, chemotherapy and two major surgeries!
The latest is this issue with my lungs. I reckon I'm unfit, overweight and in my 50's. That's not good enough for the Doctor though, is it? Nooo, lets look in the Doctor's book of interesting things to go wrong with your lungs, find a good one and tell Beagy that's what he's got!
It's all down to the Doctors!
*Subscribe to my You-Tube channel and I'll also explain how Squirrels are agents of an enemy alien army intent on taking over the world and power sharing with Cats
What about the other half of me?
...will be fine once the cancer-ridden half has been surgically removed.
Ha, the jokes on you, all the males in my family have a heart attack in their 60's then it gives up entirely sometime later. Winner, winner, chicken dinner.
a heart attack in their 60’s then it gives up entirely sometime later
I'm rather hopeful my heart will give up entirely some time later than my 60s
One of the causes of my dad's death was cancer. On the other hand he was 90. Something will eventually get you. He was actually offered, when aged 89, treatment for his bladder cancer. He declined on the basis that with his overall health conditions he didn't have much time left and he wasn't going to spend it going in and out of hospital for treatment and suffering the side effects. After he said this the doctor he was speaking agreed with him. I get the feeling that the doctor was possibly not willing to suggest this up front as it might loook like writing someone off. Always an awkward conversation I suspect.
Rather than dying of cancer the main issue I see is some people suffering years of poor quality life even as their life is extended. My mum had a few months illness in her 80s. Fully mobile and active up to then. My dad was still driving, though only daytime and local at 88. And still walking round the golf course at the same age.
Inactive lifestyles and other avoidable factors probably take years of quality life away from many people.
A lot of men get prostate cancer
Probably married men. They just aint using it enough 😆
What about the other half of me?
Cancelled.
Sorry to be morose :-/
lifetime risk
folks have already said: living longer generally; not dying of other things earlier; diagnosis; better data collection.
Was this a BBC ‘story’? Or a CRUK advert?
Simple headline complicated story for the stats
There is clear evidence in the fossil record for cancers in a variety of species, including humans, and evidence has now shown Neanderthals suffered from osteoarthritis. UV from sunlight has been a constant for the entirety of primate development on this planet, along with inhalation of smoke from fires and likely from other sources as well.
Get used to the idea that all of us will die from something sooner or later. Death or taxes being the only two certainties in life.
Seems like one for Tim Harford on More or Less!
And the same people as kids would run around all summer with no shirt on getting burned raw without sun-cream
I was one of those kids in the 60s/70s and the doc said that was probably the cause of a mole on my side turning into Malignant Melanoma in my late 50s.
Well. I am in that 50%
Bowel cancer at 48. Fit, long cycle riding, no smoking, healthy diet, not overweight etc.
Was it a shock or what.
Radio therapy,Chemo and surgery.
Now 65, still fit, long cycle rides, ......
No change really.
I only needed to have 50% of my thyroid removed....
I’m definitely subscribing to beagleboys channel. I always thought there was something suspicious about doctors and their weird handwriting. Makes you think.
As for the OP I agree that it’s likely down to longer life and better detection rates. Personally I’m okay with something ending me. It is going to happen to all of us. I just want it to be something painless or utterly random. Like an elephant falling out of a chinook and landing on me.
Teflon innit, 60 odd years ago Dupont started coating anything they could with it, fast forward to today and we've all got a bit more Fluoropolymer floating around in us...
I suppose it's unknowable how much of that statistical increase can be attributed to improving diagnosis, and how much to environmental factors...
I suppose the real question is will that trajectory be reversing in another 50 years, will our current initiatives to reduce carcinogens in our buildings and products, pollution and microplastics in our environment and sugar, additives and trans fats in our food have any appreciable effect on human cancer rates?
... oops ... just reread the OP post ... So edit...
I have a horrible feeling that a lot of the chemicals that we use or used so freely will increase some cancers.
On the flip side I do believe that within most of our lifetimes, a lot of cancer will cease to be acute/fatal diseases and will become controlled and chronic ones that hopefully have minimal impact on people living their lives
I expect AI to have destroyed the planet/wiped out the human race before cancer gets me.
And I'm 54.
Well I've already had it so that's me in the clear... Phew!
things being injected into people
Since the 17th century
things being injected into people
tee hee