Markets go up and down all the time. They are driven by sentiment, not rational thinking and logic.
Obv the sentiment since Friday has been:‘Let’s get as far away from this as possible’ hence the dumping of Sterling etc…
A window of opportunity was seen to short and play volatility, nothing more.
Anyone following assets will understand this.
You know a couple of weeks ago we were focussed on real needs. Energy.
Money is not a problem for a sovereign state with a central bank.
Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?
Heard what she thinks?
Seen her?
She’s making Boris look visible and hard-working
Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?
Heard what she thinks?
Seen her?
The last government killed a load folk - you think anyone will care in two weeks!
Anyone heard from Mad Lizzie yet?
She is heading up to Wales to that big zip wire thing so she can go bigger than Boris and distract us all for a moment while Kwazy Kwazi does something else
She is heading up to Wales to that big zip wire thing so she can go bigger than Boris and distract us all for a moment while Kwazy Kwazi does something else
Perhaps tie a choker chain round her neck and let her slide?
you think anyone will care in two weeks!
You mean when it’s costing them even more to eat, heat and rent/mortgage their homes? Caused by a government that is the neutering unions, talking down pay increases for workers, and making their jobs even more insecure and financially unrewarding? I think they might.
enrielynch
Eh? What “experts”…….the ones that favour a right-wing trajectory or the ones that favour a left-wing trajectory?
And with what goal in mind – satisfying the market, which has no interest in economic justice or the quality of people’s lives, or other goals such as providing people with secure employment, housing, and financial security?
Economics is about priorities, and it is priorities that should distinguish the Labour Party from the Tory Party.
Real paid experts don't write reports favouring either... a balanced report simply say's if you do X then Y is likely to occur.. whether Y is favourable or not is then down to politics.
This is a fairly common and increasingly so confusion ...
An example an expert in sewage system say's if you flush a load of shit and nappies down that sewer it will clog up and flood shit everywhere...the water company then decides if that sewer flooding shit everywhere is important to its shareholders or not.
Another example ... A chancellor gets told by numerous experts that huge, unsupported borrowing to reduce taxes will crash the economy and just pretending nothing is wrong will crash it further... it's then down to the chancellor and PM to decide if crashing the economy is important to them or not...
scratch
Yeah, almost pales into insignificance when a lot of the population are directly looking at being homeless this time next year.
How is a lot of the population being homeless, dying from cold or starving significant to Truss or Kwati?
It won't be them or their friends/relatives hence completely insignificant.
I get your point about QE. The BofE will always try to help the government when it can. The currency fluctuations are market-driven, though - BofE not involved there. Surely any money printing will just devalue the currency further?
Anyhow, i'm keen to see these supply side reforms which will help with a 2.5% growth target...
Government departments to be asked to find 'spending efficiencies'
There’s a surprise
How is a lot of the population being homeless, dying from cold or starving significant to Truss or Kwati?
It won’t be them or their friends/relatives hence completely insignificant.
I was referring to bankers bonuses being less significant in the issues I'd listed, obvs they won't care a fig, but they may care about their reputation and no one wants to be the one who destroyed the party on their watch, the dinner circuit money would quickly dry up
I saw a tweet earlier, in one respect this is unconcervative as you'll get, this is just a massive gamble the right have feared the left would do if they ever got into power, it's chaos with Lizz Truss. Is anyone coming out of the woodwork in support yet?
Can we go back to the happy days if just worrying about gas prices?
Covid, then this.
The last government killed a load folk – you think anyone will care in two weeks!
The big difference here is that whilst you can criticise the government’s response to covid, the pandemic itself can hardly be blamed on them
Here however you have the Bank of England stepping in to save an economy from the very mess our chancellor has single handidly created
It’s absolutely staggering, unheard of, and even more unfathomable that the man still has a job
I doubt people will forget in 2 weeks time when they face huge hike in their mortgage and losing their homes
When does the civil unrest start? The French would have been out burning stuff by now
As predicted Truss's tax cuts mean austerity for the rest of us
Real paid experts don’t write reports favouring either....
A Prime Minister needs to have clear priorities and clear goals. Asking the "experts" isn't the issue, the issue is which experts to ask. Your suggestion that Starmer would just need to listen to the experts is misleading.
Both Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman won the Nobel Peace Prize for economics, both can fairly be described as "experts". The idea that they would both give Prime Minister Kier Starmer the same advice is fanciful. And not just because one of them is dead.
Well we've just remortgaged, basically 500quid a month worse off. If someone took £6k out of your hand and threw it in a fire you'd smash their ****ing face in.
Right now if kwasi was here that's what he'd get.
I'm all up for a bit of civil disorder. As long as it fits around my teams meetings and the school run
Luckily for them, petrol bombs are purely an upper class indulgence. Nobody else can afford them
haha. We just need a better government. It really can't be that hard!
Watching the news it seems like the only person prepared to come out and defend the chuckle brothers and their suicidal economic policy is John Redwood
Imagine that? Your only defender is a freak like him who’s never been right about anything in his entire life.
The papers this morning are full of headlines spelling out the scale of the crisis. Except for the Mail who are leading with Stephen Lawrence's killer having a phone in jail (hint: probably had one most of the time he's in there) and hinting it was those nasty Pension funds doing dodgy dealings that caused it.
Delusional but dangerous.
The last government killed a load folk – you think anyone will care in two weeks!
Let's assume that within the next couple of weeks, the majority of people with mortgages realise that come renewal time, they could end up in this kind of situation:
Well we’ve just remortgaged, basically 500quid a month worse off. If someone took £6k out of your hand and threw it in a fire you’d smash their **** face in.Right now if kwasi was here that’s what he’d get.
According to google, 28% of the population have a mortgage on the home they live in. That's a LOT of extremely pissed-off people.
So yes, yes I think it's a safe bet people WILL care in two weeks time.
Let’s assume that within the next couple of weeks, the majority of people with mortgages realise that come renewal time, they could end up in this kind of situation:
For sure. I'm not cutting the government any slack - I'm just saying people have short memories.
Interest rates though are/were not destined to stay low forever and you do have to be careful to have not over-leveraged yourself on finance because it's been cheap.
Many people have enjoyed massive leaps in the value of their house because of this system.
Sometimes it goes the other way.
I do feel for tenants though they could get properly shafted.
Both Paul Krugman and Milton Friedman won the Nobel Peace Prize for economics, both can fairly be described as “experts”. The idea that they would both give Prime Minister Kier Starmer the same advice is fanciful. And not just because one of them is dead.
And Friedman insisted that inflation can only be caused by monetary policy which is patently incorrect.
Neoliberals cling to this even today.
Interest rates though are/were not destined to stay low forever and you do have to be careful to have not over-leveraged yourself on finance because it’s been cheap.
A really helpful comment for those who have largely only known low interest rates. The rates have been so low FOR SO LONG that a lot of homeowners have probably never seen anything else so although yes everyone should budget to anticipate stuff you can't really blame people as much in recent times.
I bought my first house just after the chaos has cleared in 1991 and know many people who just handed their keys back a few years before that. Guessing we will see that happening again, as people have again be allowed by irresponsible mortgage lenders to borrow too much.
Agree Kerley - when interest rates were 10% no one was budgeting for them to triple or quadruple in the space of a year which is what people will be facing here. At the same time as an inflationary crisis with shite pay rises. It's the relative change that matters and the other circumstances.
Interest rates were rising. But then the BoE had to scramble to slap an EXTRA 0.5% on Base rate and there's talk of more. Previously (pre banking crash) had a mortgage on 5% when rates were 0.5% so fully aware of leveraging, thanks. An ideological decision that NOBODY voted for was made that caused this impact and nearly folded a substantial slice of pension market. People are going to care and people will remember every their direct debit goes out.
I agree it's the speed of increase coupled with inflation and cost of everything going up which is catching people out so badly.
everyone knows interest rates can go hp or down. but they expect some notice.
chap above example of a 6k hit per annum, then add in energy and food increases. Probably once you take into account tax burden you'll be looking at needing to earn an extra 10k to stay even. Not many people will be able to cope with that or have the ability to change jobs to earn that much more.
it's similar to the pensions funds suddenly finding themselves in the shit and not able to service their debt because the pounds dived. that's why BoE bailed them our by buying bonds. (is my non economic expert understanding of it)
If this gets worse they are going to need to bail out home owners, just like they did with energy. it's a sucj a rapid shock that you can't expect people to have planned for.
it's very easy to be smug if you have a small mortgage or none at all.
She's on the telly box today isn't she? Noting her rabbit in the headlights persona on most questions it promises to be total car crash TV
Tory gameplan:
Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* - spook the markets unnecessarily.
Justify austerity to rectify.
Tory gameplan:
Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* – spook the markets unnecessarily.
Justify austerity to rectify.
How long till the next election? Does this give them enough time to get what they want done done?
Previously austerity came with low credit availability and low cost of living, moving to high cost credit, high cost of living + austerity says they've got to be gone next time around, it's not sustainable.
She’s on the telly box today isn’t she?
going for those hard hitting local radio hosts....
8am: Radio Leeds
8.08am: Radio Norfolk
8.15am: Radio Ken
8.22am: Radio Lancashire
8.30: Radio Nottingham
8.38am: Radio Tees
8.45am: Radio Bristol
8.52am: Radio Stoke
She’s really keen on promoting the energy price cap, for some reason.
When will Crispin be trickling down?
Jesus **** Christ.
In fairness (I know) on eve of the conference apparently it's traditional or something to do a whole load of local radio interviews, and these have consequently been booked in for months. Not that she's just picked a few easy ones (noting, there are some very good local radio reporters who can and will ask difficult questions)
Doesn't explain why she's not also been doing national media for the past 4 days......
https://twitter.com/POLITLCSUK/status/1575229502455975936
The suffering is going to be immense. I am ashamed of this country.
They'll be fine, just wait till all that delicious growth trickles down on them.
Sunlit uplands...
trickle down
sunlit uplands
Golden showers from the political elite?
Well it looks I am going to be £1000 worse off in a few months time.
Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* – spook the markets unnecessarily
Isn’t this the icing on the cake thou for bailing out the energy crisis with unlimited payments, what is it 150bn without revealing the cost of it all(I’m not even sure that covers commercial.)
Those local radio interviews were absolutely surreal.
She’s in complete denial.
It seems the policy is that if I refuse to even acknowledge that this massive catastrophic ****-up has taken place then perhaps nobody will notice, even though I’m literally stood in the middle of the still smoking wreckage
She seems to be suggesting that we should be eternally grateful to her for ‘taking the tough decisions’
She’s a very weird person. I seriously think she’s insane
And the FTSE opens with - another - 2% fall. It’s hard to believe this is actually happening.
Well in Lizzies world, it isn’t happening
It’s all fluffy bunny rabbits and vogue photoshoots there
Seriously… she’s absolutely ****ing deranged!!
She must be insane
Some people are going to be in for the shock of their lives in the coming months. Whilst doing my research on how much my forecasted new mortgage payments will be, I mentioned to a colleague that it would likely go up by £400ish
‘Oh, a year?’ Was her response.
Well, if you are rich and have lots of cash floating about, this is looking like a good time to buy shares and make a packet
Government departments to be asked to find ‘spending efficiencies’
There’s a surprise
We were putting together the plans for Boris's 20% staffing cuts anyway, but if there's no services at all, they won't need any of us.
You know how you look at the fall of great civilisations in history and think "How could this happen?"
Tories, apparently.
She must be insane
I wondered if one of her parents is ill and that's why she is up in Leeds. Doesn't excuse the policy choices or BoE pension bailout yesterday. "A billion here, a billion there; pretty soon you're talking about real money" - Everett Dirksen.
(in truth he didn't say the last part but it was added by a journalist and he liked it, so let it be added)
Tory gameplan:
Offer defecit spending for tax cuts *without the details* – spook the markets unnecessarily.
Justify austerity to rectify.
But the whole argument for tax cuts was/is based on the premise that tax cuts are self-financing because they result in a boom in the economy.
That was central to Kwarteng's claimed strategy and central to the entire trickle-down argument.
Past historical examples of dashes for growth which involve tax cuts do indeed suggest that they result in mini booms, for which right-wing politicians take the credit.
The inevitable bust that follows the boom is blamed on other politicians and/or events. Introduce austerity too early in the process and you blow the trickle-down myth out of the water.
Kwarteng announcing austerity now, or later in November, would undermine his credibility as much as doing a U-turn on tax cuts. And the political fallout would be huge - rewarding the rich for being rich during a cost of living crises has caused the Tories immeasurable political damage, the only way to minimise that damage is to convince ordinary working people that they will also benefit from what will be a booming economy. Tell them that they themselves will have to pay for tax cuts to the rich through reduced services and spending on education, NHS, etc, and you are committing certain political suicide.
Probably the most realistic solution for Truss to the crises of her own making is to replace Kwarteng claiming that she had no choice as the markets had, unfairly, no confidence in him. It would leave her weak and vulnerable without a vital ally but this will be about her survival as PM. She might not currently be under immediate threat, as it is far too early, but failing a miracle she surely will be given time.
Well, if you are rich and have lots of cash floating about, this is looking like a good time to buy shares and make a packet
Errrrrrr hate to break it to you but this is only just getting started...
Once the BoE has finished its little QE intervention then we will see where the market wants to go and I don't think it will be upwards.
Also this is completely the wrong end of the stick:
it’s similar to the pensions funds suddenly finding themselves in the shit and not able to service their debt because the pounds dived. that’s why BoE bailed them our by buying bonds. (is my non economic expert understanding of it)
Pension funds were in the shit because of rising 30yr gilt yields. The BoE has stabilised the market to give them time to unwind their positions in an orderly fasion. It is simply carrying out its role as lender of last resort.
The pension funds did not need bailing out, they just need more time - they were getting margin calls on their (leveraged) swaps and selling gilts (and other securities) to raise funds, however the gilt market was not liquid enough to meet their demand and hence we saw an entire percentage point move (and back) in a couple of days. The bank has bought them time to sort things out but then it will finish QE and possibly resume hiking.
Is that not the same as giving people with mortgages a bit more time to sort out their debt position, say by the government providing homeowner support? BoE has stepped in to give pensionsthe time or they would have been in trouble? I’m suggesting the same is needed for those with mortgages
Like I said not an expert!
Probably the most realistic solution for Truss to the crises of her own making is to replace Kwarteng claiming that she had no choice as the markets had, unfairly, no confidence in him.
The problem for her hopefully is that the actions of a chancellor have rarely been so in tune with the words of the Prime Minister. This is her budget as much as his. It is her disregard for procedures and standards that has caused this mess. I know that you know this so I am not disagreeing with the appraisal but hopefully she is toast
Is that not the same as giving people with mortgages a bit more time to sort out their debt position, say by the government providing homeowner support? BoE has stepped in to give pensionsthe time or they would have been in trouble? I’m suggesting the same is needed for those with mortgages
Like I said not an expert!
No, because the pension funds were not short of assets (like people who cannot afford their mortgage payments) they were simply unable to liquidate their bonds (and the rest) fast enough to raise the cash they needed. That was because there were not enough buyers in such a short window of time. The bank has just given them time to sort themselves out.
It's a bit like a home owner needing to sell their 5 mtbs in the space of 2 days in order to raise cash for the mortgage payment. The market is not the liquid, you're gonna need a couple of weeks at least.
It’s a bit like a home owner needing to sell their 5 mtbs in the space of 2 days in order to raise cash for the mortgage payment. The market is not the liquid, you’re gonna need a couple of weeks at least.
Probably prophetic for some poor bugger on here.
It's a good analogy, but you're missing the bit where the government also stands outside your house while you're meeting the buyers shouting that your bikes are shit and not worth the money.
scratch
I was referring to bankers bonuses being less significant in the issues I’d listed, obvs they won’t care a fig, but they may care about their reputation and no one wants to be the one who destroyed the party on their watch, the dinner circuit money would quickly dry up
I don't think Truss was ever going to survive as PM and I think she knew/knows it as well.
She's terrible in debates or interviews and her leadership campaign was pretty much just what the Conservative party membership wanted to hear.. that's not to say she's stupid she's just not good or actually really bad at those PM type things...
She EITHER has no morals whatsoever or has undergone some radical changes in beliefs ... and she's certainly not convinced me she has changed her beliefs so radically or for that matter that she actually has any. She's no different to Bojo in that respect but the big difference is her complete absence of charisma.
the dinner circuit money would quickly dry up
I get that's a wider type statement encompassing lots of ways for ex-PM's to rake in the cash but taking that at face value ... I don't think she was ever going to make money from public speaking ... a bit tongue in cheek but "unless the audience are given a load of rotten vegetables".
I can't see her being tolerated opening her mouth at a friends and family meal ... I was watching an old interview of Rory Stewart where he described her as some-one unable to hold a detailed conversation and falling back on just saying controversial things (he starts a bit politely)
Having listened to extracts from her local radio interviews she was woeful.
The regional tv interviews are likely to be worse for her as the interviewers now know exactly how to skewer her.
No doubt she is now role playing and rehearsing for her this afternoon.
Two truss car crashes in a day - excellent!
Well, if you are rich and have lots of cash floating about, this is looking like a good time to buy shares and make a packet
Errrrrrr hate to break it to you but this is only just getting started…
Once the BoE has finished its little QE intervention then we will see where the market wants to go and I don’t think it will be upwards.
Agree. You'd have to be barkers to buy into the FTSE100 at all IMO. It's been chopping up and down with no overall growth for six years - funnily enough since 2016.
The Dow Jones is almost exactly level with where it was before the Covid mini crash, i.e. this isn't some sort of black swan buying opportunity in US markets (yet...) either.
As others have pointed out, shorting the pound, that's where the money has been made in the past months. Unsurprisingly, that's rather a difficult exercise for retail investors but bread and, er, caviar for Kwarteng's old firm.
binners
She’s in complete denial.
It seems the policy is that if I refuse to even acknowledge that this massive catastrophic ****-up has taken place then perhaps nobody will notice, even though I’m literally stood in the middle of the still smoking wreckage
She seems to be suggesting that we should be eternally grateful to her for ‘taking the tough decisions’
She’s a very weird person. I seriously think she’s insane
I agree she's a very weird person, I'm not convinced she's in denial, she's in public denial until she has achieved what her employers have asked her to deliver because she has to balance a no confidence vote against delivering a run on the pound.
I don’t think she was ever going to make money from public speaking
Agreed. She’ll make her money quietly. But she’ll make plenty. If only out of back scratching paybacks.
Agreed. She’ll make her money quietly. But she’ll make plenty. If only out of back scratching paybacks.
or she already is and money is being poured into an offshore account right now.
Either way I'm sure she has had her personal investment managers shorting the pound.
It is remarkable how quickly politicians can become very very rich. Blair was suddenly in possession of a massive property portfolio, Zelensky seems suprisingly rich for a joke teller on the telly, I'm sure Odey has filed a pile for Kwarteng once he's out of office, US health funds are backing Starmer and Streeting. Profits before principles!
It is remarkable how quickly politicians can become very very rich
I don't think its very surprising at all. Very successful politicions are likely to have been very successful at other things they've done in the past, and been well compensated for doing them, or have enough cash from something (family etc) to not need\want to do a better-paid job. I'd be more surprised if a front-bench politicion did not have a bunch of cash floating around
‘Oh, a year?’ Was her response.
These people interest me massively as they seem to go one of two ways when you give them the real info. What was her response when you told her it was per month?
‘Oh Wow!’
Tbh I don’t think she’s going to be massively affected. Her husband has just landed a new job with a whopping pay rise and they haven’t had chance move yet!
It seems the policy is that if I refuse to even acknowledge that this massive catastrophic ****-up has taken place then perhaps nobody will notice, even though I’m literally stood in the middle of the still smoking wreckage
Have you seen those experiments where they leave chocolate cake in front of a toddler, say do not eat it, leave the room come back, there is no cake and chocolate all over the face of the toddler. They then ask did you eat the cake and they say no dispite all the chocolate hands and face?
That is what is happening.
5lab
How come in the examples given the riches appeared after office and where are all these successful folk in parliament? Starmer with a previous career is an outlier. Most are career politicians. The only ones I can think.of had low paying jobs.
We all know the corruption. Its legalised bribery with huge payments for non jobs
Nice to see the BBC have done the hard work of tracking down members of the public in full support of the current situation under the banner 'we have to give it chance to fail' I'm not exactly sure at what point they're willing to pull back from and say actually this is enough...
BillMC
Zelensky seems suprisingly rich for a joke teller on the telly,
Zelensky is worth 20million. You might want to look at his career a bit closer, he's a board member, production company owner, actor & the voice of Paddington Bear... a bit more than a joke teller on the tv.
johnjn2000
These people interest me massively as they seem to go one of two ways when you give them the real info.
I once worked with someone who really wanted the NHS privatising because it would lower their NI if the didn't have to pay for it. I pointed out that the birth of their 3 kids probably cost more than their entire contributions for life... they didn't believe the whole of Google when they looked up how much it actually costs. I didn't get into how much their insurance might be. I think some people just have no idea about the real world.
Scratch
Nice to see the BBC have done the hard work of tracking down members of the public in full support of the current situation under the banner ‘we have to give it chance to fail’ I’m not exactly sure at what point they’re willing to pull back from and say actually this is enough…
tomhoward
‘Oh, a year?’ Was her response.
Can anyone think of an example where the political leader of a country met with hedgefund managers / investment bankers two days before the announcement of major economic policies?
I just can't get my head around how this could be viewed as acceptable. I know it's only one example of the cronyism prevalent in our parliament, it just feels so incredibly blatant and egregious this time.
Like others have said, if this was the case in france half of Paris would be burning now
jesus.. just spotted the new nationwide rates.. bare in mind these guys are one of the biggest lenders in the uk, nearly every fixed rate is above 5%.
https://www.nationwide-intermediary.co.uk/news/2022/september/ratechange
edit : oops that link is already out of date. the newest rates are a bit higher still!
https://www.nationwide-intermediary.co.uk/news/2022/september/reprice
Jesus wept, your man Kwertengs just come out to say we're sticking with this growth plan and are going to help everyone with their energy bills
What about the massive mortgage hikes you've just created you cretin.
How come in the examples given the riches appeared after office and where are all these successful folk in parliament? Starmer with a previous career is an outlier. Most are career politicians. The only ones I can think.of had low paying jobs.
Zelenskys been covered, Blair was a barrister married to a more successful barrister.
Yes, all manner of shit goes on in plain sight, but being rich isn't automatically evidence of a crime.
Jesus wept, your man Kwertengs just come out to say we’re sticking with this growth plan and are going to help everyone with their energy bills
What about the massive mortgage hikes you’ve just created you cretin.
Or ...... Have you seen the new bank lending stress test criteria? How about helping anyone when the worst realistic case (which might seem quite feasible at the moment) is 10% inflation for 3 years with peak at 17%?
Puic service spending cuts (aka pay freezes) aren't going to be helpful.
Jesus wept, your man Kwertengs just come out to say we’re sticking with this growth plan and are going to help everyone with their energy bills
Time to riot - the person on here who mentioned their mortgage has gone up by £500 a month / £6k a year through no fault of my own, **** that I'd be in London chucking a brick through parliament windows or burning a load of tyres.
I'm pretty well insulated from this carnage but come the first organized demo's/marches/unrest - I'll be there.
*Please note, help with energy bills may not actually be that helpful
Rory Stewart discusses his voting record when asked about it on the Full Disclosure with James O'Brien podcast. It's from Jul 2019 and he is asked about it at the eleven minute mark.
I wondered if one of her parents is ill and that’s why she is up in Leeds
Anyone know where, I'll go and dash a ****ing McDonalds milk shake in her stupid face!!
