Think we can safely assume the tories are expecting to lose the next election. This is a last gasp of the rich elite to grab what they can before their tax dodging, corrupt money grubbing scam grinds to a halt. It's going to need more from the labour party to make that happen though. Never has a labour opposition had such a gaping open goal in front of them.
Typical Tory bollocks!
1) just after the B of E raise interest rates to curb spending they then do the opposite.
2) Every change they have announced will benefit the rich more than the poor.
3) Giving us money that doesn’t bleeding exist!
Plus just to add I cannot believe that post earlier moaning about taxation on the wealthy. Unbefreekinglievable.
Think we can safely assume the tories are expecting to lose the next election.
Woah there! We can't assume that "safely" at all. Once an election is announced, the rolling of the turd in the glitter will begin. Look out for the "they are all the same", "it's not worth voting", and "it would be worse under Labour", and "in the pockets of the SNP" lines ramp up as soon as the date is known.. if not before.
Interest rates might still be historically cheap, but repayments are not, because homes are far more expensive than they have been “historically”. Something felt more keenly by those who are new to home ownership (or dream of it).
Completely agree with this - recent homebuyers with massive loan to value ratios are going to end up with much higher rates when remortgage time comes around. That will blow any tiny adjustments to income taxes out of the water.
High rates might have been okay when a house was a few times one salary, but now they're far more a tiny increase makes a much larger difference.
Not a surprise, but interesting to see how Scotland plays this one.
https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1573264001576087558?t=Sxz2wsJT0zeUbmH54k_qGQ&s=19
Never has a labour opposition had such a gaping open goal in front of them.
Agreed but they actually need to start coming out with robust policy themselves, something so far they appear incapable of doing. As it stands they dont even appear to understand that the goal is there or know a way how to score
Maybe labour policy is just to bank on people getting fed up with the tories, and then voting labour in, realising how shit they are and then the tories coming back in again ?
Think we can safely assume the tories are expecting to lose the next election. This is a last gasp of the rich elite to grab what they can before their tax dodging, corrupt money grubbing scam grinds to a halt.
The way they're acting, they're not expecting to make it past January. It's the macroeconomic equivalent of a looting spree.
Seriously, don’t fall for this. Its a classic Tory line, pushed by right wing media. They are very happy with the status quo and don’t want that boat rocked. Things can be much better if we get rid of this current lot.
so one of the things mentioned was that the 40% rate was the highest rate under the last labour government as well, except for the last month (I guess it was hiked during the 2007 crisis).
Is there a reason why additional rate tax wasn't in place earlier on? it seems right now like everyone thinks cutting it is unfair (not disagreeing) but if thats the case, why wasn't it introduced in the late 90s? I was too young to be following politics then so have no idea
whoever said that Brexit was an "unimaginable act of financial self harm" I don't think they meant it as setting a target.
Agreed but they actually need to start coming out with robust policy themselves,
Yup. So far all they've come up with is a fairly insignificant windfall tax and rhetoric about balancing the books/fiscal responsibility. Time for Starmer and Reeves to make the unashamed case for redistribution and massive investment in public services. If the tories can afford to borrow hundreds of billions to prop up energy companies and bank profits, we can do that for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, house building and local services. I'm not holding my breath.
I'm surprised anyone is surprised by this budget.....
The analysis of Liz Truss's economic plans during her leadership campaign pretty much spelled it out.... And suprise suprise the Tory members voted her in 🤷♂️
Not worth a shite to normal folks.. unless you are earning a lot of money then its a significant bung.
Also they are not cutting Corp Tax, NI Super deductions they are leaving them as they are.
Not a radical budget more of a radical transfer of public money into the well of.
If they are now going to stand back and wait for the miracle.... best of luck
a radical transfer of public money into the well of
Nailed it.
And that's not a "plan" for the country, it's just a bribe for the "important" people.
At least in the Victorian Era they had the 'deserving' and the 'undeserving' poor. Now we just have the second kind, apparently.
it’s just a bribe for the “important” people.
To what end though? the total % of tax payers in that bracket is only just over 1% - thats not enough to swing a vote even in the richest constituencies.
By "important", I didn't mean voters. These "important" people aren't the people that I consider more important... they are the kind people who will be described as "the engines of our economy" by people who think that it is the rich who do the real work. You'd be surprised how many people will buy into that idea, even if they have no chance of directly benefiting from these policies. Tories win elections by convincing people that their self serving actions also benefit everyone else in the end... sunlit uplands are always just around the corner... and the timing of the next election will probable fit in with a "look, the economy is recovering (from a low point) now... give us another term because the benefits of that recovery are coming your way soon, honest... you can trust us..". Only after the election will the recovery be revealed to be totally superficial and temporary, as the problems that UK SMEs face are still in place.
(surely there’s a whole bunch of students and part timers in the world??)
Part timers are workshy, in the world of the Britannia Unchained IEA fruitloops... as part of this mini budget benefits are being changed to punish them (sorry, "encourage" them to do more hours).
I don't understand how there isn't a mechanism in our political system to stop a government from straying so far from a manifesto they were elected on. I guess the argument is they couldn't have predicted a Russian invasion but even that is questionable as a statement from a competent government
Money markets not really liking the budget. £ is currently down over 2% TODAY. $1.10 to the £ currently.
The Regional Enterprise zones could have a transformational effect on local economies. Ref the huge shift that’s occurred in other countries where this has already happened – which in some cases have see huge areas transformed from low wage / high unemployment to high wage / full unemployment.
Any evidence to back this up?
IMO all these zones will do is suck in businesses from outside the zone, as per occurred in the 80's when the Tories tried it previously.
"Freeports, loved by disingenuous politicians, criminals and gullible voters everywhere..."
I don’t understand how there isn’t a mechanism in our political system to stop a government from straying so far from a manifesto they were elected on.
Parliament?
Useful podcast
https://shows.acast.com/a-long-time-in-finance/episodes/the-barber-boom-and-bust
Think we can safely assume the tories are expecting to lose the next election.
They are looking for a short term boom, hoping they can ride that wave into the next GE before the crash
Think we can safely assume the tories are expecting to lose the next election.
Not at all. I think it is fairer to assume that the Tories aren't scared of the Opposition.
For example, scrapping the bankers bonus cap during an unprecedented cost of living crises in which people are having to make hard choices between eating and heating should be political suicide, but only if there is an opposition who will exploit it to the maximum effect.
The Tories know that there is very little chance of that. Sure they might hemorrhage a bit of support but it will soon blow over and be forgotten. It will not be endlessly brought up and used as stick to beat them with.
The situation would be very different if the Labour Party was led by someone who scared the Tories. In 2018 after relentless attacks from the then leader of the Labour Party which gained traction with voters the Tories were forced to announce the end of austerity. Austerity now appears to be a dirty word never uttered from the lips of a Tory politician.
It is inconceivable that if Corbyn and McDonnell were still on the Labour front benches that they would not have mercilessly savaged a budget for the wealthy elite during a cost of living crises.
In fact I can't imagine that the Tories would have even dared to attempt such a brazen act of rewarding the rich for being rich.
Has Starmer said anything yet? Nothing on the BBC midday news.
I don't get it, there aren't enough high earners to swing an election, so why pander to them like this? It's just pissing off the other 90%. Most of the tax take come from the middle classes, where they're earning enough to pay more than they cost in services, but there's enough of them to make it a substantial amount.
I don't really care about bankers bonuses, if I though they were that great/egregious I'd apply for a job at Barclays.
so one of the things mentioned was that the 40% rate was the highest rate under the last labour government as well, except for the last month (I guess it was hiked during the 2007 crisis).
Is there a reason why additional rate tax wasn’t in place earlier on? it seems right now like everyone thinks cutting it is unfair (not disagreeing) but if thats the case, why wasn’t it introduced in the late 90s? I was too young to be following politics then so have no idea
<2008 though there weren't comparable problems though. As long as things vaguely balanced then people were paying taxes and services were provided, inflation* and interest rates were sensible, there wasn't the need to generate more tax? Like you though I was on minimum wage back then though so that was the only number that had any meaningfull impact on me.
*excluding property.
G
It is inconceivable that if Corbyn and McDonnell were still on the Labour front benches that they would not have mercilessly savaged a budget for the wealthy elite during a cost of living crises.....
Has Starmer said anything yet? Nothing on the BBC midday news.
Gota admit that, much as I loathed magic grandad for being utterly unelectable, Starmer is doing an utterly pisspoor job in the face of an unprecedented succession of open goals.
You've got to ask yourself just how bad does a political party need to be to let the Tories get away with the unmitigated shitshow of the last few years and still win every election.
A decade of Tory PMs will make people feel that way, yes.
@kelvin you may very well be right.
If the tories can afford to borrow hundreds of billions to prop up energy companies and bank profits, we can do that for schools, hospitals, infrastructure, house building and local services. I’m not holding my breath.
@dazh - I hope you don't mind but I have pinched/paraphrased this to put in my email to my MP Alan Campbell
They are looking for a short term boom, hoping they can ride that wave into the next GE before the crash
The boom needs to be bleedin quick. Are we not talking about tax cuts which will be introduced next April? And how soon after that will the next general election be......months rather than years away?
mercilessly savaged a budget for the wealthy elite during a cost of living crises…..
As have the current Labour front bench.
They need to speak louder, I don't think anyone can hear them.
interestingly in the short term this might have even more negative effects on tax income. Right now if you're an additional rate taxpayer its worth stuffing more money into your pension this tax year (when you're paying 48.25% tax/NI on it) and then paying less next year, when you're paying 42% - every 10k you stuff away would give you a "free" £625 uplift.
As usual, Nicola is taking a more measured approach
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63007899
I think Starmer & co not having come up with much by way of positive plans of action is because on the evidence of today and before they have good reason to believe that the Tories are very capable of simply taking themselves out of power.
I'm sure that's one of Sun Tsu's arts of war - 'when your enemy is making mistakes, don't interrupt them'.
💪
A YouGov poll out today gives Labour a 8% lead over the Tories, which isn't huge given how incapable the Tories apparently are, and almost certainly not enough for Labour to form a majority government.
interestingly in the short term this might have even more negative effects on tax income
This is the reality of the workings behind the quasi-economics of the "Laffer Curve"... when tax changes are announced, they can shift "when" taxable income is taken, rather then how much. In this case, it might well lead to lower tax take this year... with some of the taxable income taken after the change instead... which could "look" as if lowering tax increases the amount of tax taken... when all it has done is shift it in time (and in the case of a drop in tax rates, maybe even reduce the tax take over a multiple year period, despite showing a rise in take one side of the tax regime change in comparison to the other).
According to the recent STW poll they'll be a few on here who'll be happy.
A fair few who will benefit in their take home income, for sure... no doubt split on whether that is good for the country and society they live in as a whole (and whether that matters to them). Not everyone is made "Happy" by the same thing.
Useful Twitter thread on the technicalities of where the government will get hundreds of millions of quid. Or not.
https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1573193134842040320
The mini budget today is so economically wrong headed I can't be bothered to pick it apart point by point. But in general it's a well established principle that to quickly get money into the economy then give to less well off. It will get spent straight away and locally. All the evidence and analysis for the past three decades has supported this.
To rebuild economies and boost growth governments get best return is on direct investment in infrastructure, education, technology, science and innovation. Firstly, there is a direct impact as it provides economic activity (jobs, sales etc) for those delivering or supporting delivery and secondly it improves productivity by upscaling the economy more generally. Higher better quality output, higher wages, better jobs.
What Truss has set out is a punt that cutting some taxes will somehow replicate this based on economic ideology which has been progressively dismantled since the eighties. Absolute bullshit
...and I will pick up on one specific point because it annoys me so much. Reducing stamp duty on housing will simply push up prices as they is a massive supply issue with housing in this country. So without any increase in supply the price will just rise to meet the maximum level of affordability - the tax saving just becomes price inflation. It is literally day one, lesson one of GCSE economics.
It is so shockingly piss poor
I don't have a problem with borrowing, if it's used for investment. To use it for tax cuts is crazy. It seems like they're relying on goodwill from the private sector to create growth. Well, let's see how that turns out!
There's a real danger in 2 years time there will be nothing to show for this. Any private sector spending could easily be soaked up by inflation.
Unimpressed.
They need to speak louder, I don’t think anyone can hear them.
That will be because the majority of the media outlets are owned by Tory party donors and they don't report good stuff about Labour.
The only people who think this budget is great are the 200 old farts who voted her in..!
According to the recent STW poll they’ll be a few on here who’ll be happy.
Not everyone is purely self interested, just to let you know.
Not everyone is purely self interested, just to let you know.
Thanks for letting me know.
Tbf anyone earning over £150k probably thinks it's great
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1573312128114720770?t=PzLMNbKFgmY_h-wcbv_B3A&s=19
^^ that peston analysis is incorrect.
don't know if that image will work but otherwise there's a graph halfway down this page
https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response
that shows that everyone earning over 12.5k is better off (as you'd expect).
overall, including all the tax changes since 2021, only people on over 150k are better off. but you can't really blame the new guy for some tax changes a year ago.
The irony is that the government were insisting inflation matching pay rises for public sector workers would be bad
https://twitter.com/PJTheEconomist/status/1573302375703609347?t=tPNn3xQlIlfnTxwpNhLFFQ&s=19
As per the stamp duty cut, when I was viewing my house that my partner and I purchased in April (1.41% mortgage rate for next 5 years is looking good), the agent replied to by partner ruing the end of the stamp duty holiday by pointing out that prices rose in accordance so no money was really saved.. I have a feeling the same will happen
It seems like they’re relying on goodwill from the private sector to create growth.
They're taking thatcherite/reaganite ideology as gospel, even though there is 40 years of evidence that it doesn't work. It's the last stand of the neoliberals. And when it comes crashing down, they'll have a suitable excuse to explain it away (Russia/Ukraine probably), or a scapegoat in the form of the labour party who will inherit the mess. At best we're heading for more 1970s style stagflation. At worst we could see a massive devaluation of the pound, the decimation of public services, pensions wiped out and mass unemployment. The next few years are going to be chaos.
Kwasi has changed his tune
https://londonlovesproperty.com/top-tory-mp-kwasi-kwarteng-slams-osbornes-housing-measures/
110 cents to the pound .....
**** me, that's insane.
Scratch that, it's 1.09
Is the £ going to end up below the dollar?
How long before another mini-budget to U-turn on this?
And irony of ironies, the folks shorting the pound today will have unlimited bonuses. I'm sure that's what the chancellor was hoping for.
They need to speak louder, I don’t think anyone can hear them.
That will be because the majority of the media outlets are owned by Tory party donors and they don’t report good stuff about Labour.
I think you will find that it's because the Labour leader doesn't say much.
Which for that very reason when he does manage to think of something to say it is quite big news.
The last time we had a "hold the front page Sir Keir Starmer has just said something" moment was a couple of months ago over his proposal to have a 6 month freeze on domestic energy bills.
That got massive media coverage - everyone was talking about it.
Since then he seems to have entered a period of quiet reflection, I think the Tory counter-proposal of a 2 year energy bill freeze threw him a bit.
Still, it's the Labour Party Conference in a couple of days time, I am sure that his speech writers will have thought of something for him to say. Which will definitely get huge media coverage.
Scrabbling around for the data that the OBR should be publishing, and found this…
https://twitter.com/shreyagnanda/status/1573237565423255552?s=21
For the few, not the many.
5% off top rate though. If you earn £151K, that extra £1K was taxed at £450, now will be £400. You only need £3.6K over the £150K and you’ve saved more than the average earner with that cut. Noting too you’ll have also saved on the 1% cut on the basic rate too.
Yes, but also paid a lot more tax than the average earner in the first place.
Though it's easier just to forget that isn't it
Yes, but also paid a lot more tax than the average earner in the first place.
Are you one of them? If not why are you defending them? Using absolute figures of what people pay rather than a percentage of what they earn is mathematically illiterate.
Are you one of them? If not why are you defending them? Using absolute figures of what people pay rather than a percentage of what they earn is mathematically illiterate.
without taking sides, don't people on 150k pay more tax as a percentage of what they earn as well as an absolute (regardless of the recent cut)?
this aged well !
https://twitter.com/CPhilpOfficial/status/1573240072060682240?cxt=HHwWgICymdPgotUrAAAA
Treasury Chief Secretary
Yes, but also paid a lot more tax than the average earner in the first place.
So? What you take home is all that matters in the end, if it’s the income that matters to you, rather some weird idea of “fairness” where you’re unhappy to be both taking home lots of money and giving plenty back to the country. Most people would love to have hit that 45% tax rate, happy to be earning so much and putting back in.
Greedy little piggy's filling the piggy bank
don’t people on 150k pay more tax as a percentage of what they earn as well as an absolute
Yes they do. Because they can afford it. Anyone on >150k can afford a few percent more. Someone on 25k can't. It doesn't take much thinking to conclude that someone on 150k getting a 6% tax cut compared to someone on 25k getting 1% is unfair.
Most people would love to have hit that 45% tax rate, happy to me earning so much and putting back in.
Incredible isn't it how people earning 150k could possibly feel justified in complaining about how much tax they pay? This is worth a repost...
Coming to all of us next summer - possibly - bank base rate of 5.3% by August '23.
Per Bloomberg.
I've just heard peak Tory MP - talking about people getting better interest rates depositing money into banks - for fluidity to be lent.
FFS a spokesperson for the Tories doesn't even know commercial banks do not lend depositers funds.
Jesus Christ.
Classical economics is miles behind but used to bash the population with constant lies.
The thing is neoliberalism worked for several decades as we stripped and sold off assets from the state. That created a market for the few - but a market.
Now we have nothing to sell - you can't build a wealthy society based on that structure unless your rebuild the state with new money.
The Tories model will fall apart with this logic alone.
Tax cuts without massive investment is going nowhere.
don’t people on 150k pay more tax as a percentage of what they earn as well as an absolute
Yes. Some people think that's not fair, but that ignores the fact that there is a minimum amount of money required to live. A single person on minimum wage has income very close to that minimum (or even below it) so they cannot afford to pay the same proportion of tax as a rich person.
That is why even in Tory Britain we still have a progressive tax system (thats what this is called) as do most countries.
"From each according to his ability, to each according to his need"
According to the recent STW poll they’ll be a few on here who’ll be happy.
The FT comments today, largely from bankers, are absolutely withering.
What's Kwasi giving us for Christmas?
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Parity with the dollar!
Most people would love to have hit that 45% tax rate, happy to me earning so much and putting back in.
You would think that but the truth is there are some right greedy folk out there. Folk in my work moan about paying 46%, you'd think Sturgeon was stealing the bread from their kids mouths.
Parity with the dollar!
and the Euro by default 😉
I suspect most people on 150K plus aren't thinking 'hooray' I have a little bit more money but rather 'f*** me, this has never worked well in the past and I'm going to be living in a dump with lots of destitute people and knackered services in a couple of years'.
I'm astonished anyone actually thinks this is a realistic plan. You would absolutely need the blinkers on
People who moan about paying tax should also remember tax gives money value.
Removing some from circulation creates value for the funds. That's what tax's main purpose is. To control whether there's enough in circulation.
That's why really you should cut the bottom end of earner's tax as they will spend the extra. And I increase the top end to remove it from the hoarders.
There's so much misinformation about taxation. Usually stuff is back to front.
Like tax and spend. It's spend and tax etc.
Investment comes before taxation not the other way around as Tories are selling it.
And increasing interest rates increases inflation as it forces assets to get more expensive.
It's a common theme.
Are you one of them?
Only the one year
Parity with the dollar!
https://twitter.com/spittingcat/status/1573338995362234369?s=20&t=As3xsYefWhWf8t3BW6InpA
[ more seriously, we won't get parity with the dollar this week, but I would't bet against it this winter ]
[ I happen to think it's been nailed on for quite some time, just need the reality of the new UK to sink in ]
Quite why a tax cut for folks earning what by any standards is a huge amount of money is not inflationary but "pro growth" while higher wages for people like my nurses and receptionists who obliged to spend more or less every penny in their local community is on the other hand, inflationary and and will harm growth will baffle folks who have a normal view of the world.
I'll bet that the Tory voting "red wall" are pondering their choices
I don’t get it, there aren’t enough high earners to swing an election, so why pander to them like this? It’s just pissing off the other 90%.
Because Truss and co are puppets fot these folk.
Only the one year
So you seriously think it's unfair that someone on 150k should pay more tax than someone on 25k?
The thing is neoliberalism worked for several decades as we stripped and sold off assets from the state. That created a market for the few – but a market.
Now we have nothing to sell
Selling off the family silver, as one former Tory Prime Minister called it, and North Sea oil.
It was reckoned that whoever won the 1979 general election they would potentially stay on power for decades because the trickle of oil from the North Sea was about to become a torrent which would bring unimaginable wealth to the UK.
It was pissed down the gutter to pay for mass unemployment and peaked over 20 years ago.
I suspect most people on 150K plus aren’t thinking ‘hooray’ I have a little bit more money but rather ‘f*** me, this has never worked well in the past and I’m going to be living in a dump with lots of destitute people and knackered services in a couple of years’.
You just summarised over 1000 FT comments.
Trusses puppet masters
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/23/liz-truss-power-extreme-neoliberal-thinktanks
