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I use the Met Office without alerts. I look at it when I want to check a forecast.
I'm not sure the alerts defence stands up.
but it’s come on the heels of weather warnings about the cold and the wind in the last few days and weeks, or in other words: Winter.
No it would be a certain level of cold and wind.
For example despite being colder than normal here there is no warning because it hasnt tripped the thresholds.
The point is for most people yellow warnings can be ignored. Either its low risk to most people or its uncertain eg several days out and hence if you are planning on going somewhere at the weekend and see one its worth reviewing.
Ultimately though we have the three levels for a reason. Its not just "weather warnings".
maybe I'm just colour blind, but until reading this thread I didn't realise that Yellow alerts and Amber alerts weren't the same thing 😆
i am of course, privileged to live in a city in the South, where we only get disruptive snow about twice a decade anyway. But still. They could change the colours!
Interesting to see that the weather warnings are based on a risk-type matrix. I bet the general population (as I had done now I htink about it) assument the yellow/amber/red warnings were on a linear scale.
Given the number of people I have to deal with professionally that fundamentally misunderstand risk matrices, I imagine trying to explain it to the general popualation in a concise way (embedded in a 3min broadcast?) to be near impossible.
Maybe clarifying the status of the yellow warnings (e.g: "High liklihood, low impact") would be useful?
i am of course, privileged to live in a city in the South, where we only get disruptive snow about twice a decade anyway. But still. They could change the colours!
It's not only warnings for snow, they do them for wind and rain as well. Both this year and last we had weeks of yellow warnings for both through autumn and into winter locally. (We had this same discussion last year.) After a while you shrug and ignore them.
Maybe clarifying the status of the yellow warnings (e.g: “High liklihood, low impact”) would be useful?
Which goes back to the original question, if they are low impact then why the warning? (The answer seems to be so that someone can put a blanket in their car just in case it's cold. In January.)
I use the Met Office without alerts. I look at it when I want to check a forecast.
I’m not sure the alerts defence stands up.
But.. not everyone is the same.. you know that right?
if they are low impact then why the warning?
Because the impact is not the same for everyone! Good grief.
Low impact is about the scale of the impact... few people effected.... some people could be seriously effected. But we get it now... "this warning is of no use for me, therefore it shouldn't happen". How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings, and leave others to read up on the details if they want.
How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings
Unless, say, you work with the homeless or are a crane operator etc.
It is odd how people are struggling with the basic concept that yellow warnings are intended to be ignored by most people (the low probability ones being the exceptions but generally those are several days out and hence something to keep an eye on and keep a plan b in mind) and keep complaining that they want to ignore them.
How about, if you live and work in a city/suburb you ignore all the yellow warnings, and leave others to read up on the details if they want.
We have yellow weather warnings for rain and wind on weather forecasts quite regularly through the year, which, according to you lot, don't mean a thing to the majority of people. Primetime TV weather people will regularly tell us very seriously that WARNING!!! heavy rain or wind will affect this region or that. However, if you do something that needs slightly more detailed info, like:
Unless, say, you work with the homeless or are a crane operator etc.
you'd see the WARNING!!! and check in more detail. But, if you need that info you'd be checking for it anyway, so the WARNING!!! is just as redundant for those people as for the people who don't need it. There must be a small number of people glancing up from their phones and thinking oh, it's going to rain tomorrow...
So yes, I can ignore them, but if I see a weather WARNING!!! for tomorrow and I'm planning to ride to work as normal, I'm likely to check what the WARNING!!! is about. I always find that it's telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year. In two years of these being in place I haven't once been told of anything that has affected my plans but it has driven lots more traffic from me to various weather sites.
We have yellow weather warnings for rain and wind on weather forecasts quite regularly through the year, which, according to you lot
No not according to "you lot" but according to the met office. If you are having difficulty with this then I am not sure how you deal with the additional complexity of a weather forecast.
I’m likely to check what the WARNING!!! is about. I always find that it’s telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year.
You dont get a "WARNING!!!" but a yellow, amber or red warning.
This isnt difficult:
Yellow unless you are vulnerable groups I would generally ignore. Although if I was cycling and it was a wind warning I would take a closer look for example.
Amber and Red I would definitely pay attention to.
You dont get a “WARNING!!!” but a yellow, amber or red warning.
This isnt difficult:
You do get a warning, they are all warnings. I think that's my issue - the yellow one should be an alert, not a warning. (It's all in the wording! 😀 )
I always find that it’s telling me of normal seasonal weather for that time of the year.
Yes, but so what? Traffic jams are normal, but I still want to know where they are so I can take appropriate action.
Disruptive weather is normal but it's still disruptive. You are missing the point.
Yes, but so what? Traffic jams are normal, but I still want to know where they are so I can take appropriate action.
So we'll have a general warning across south Wales that the roads are jammed up between 4pm and 6pm this evening? Just because there WILL be traffic jams around Baglan, Port Talbot and J32 of the M4...
You want to know where the specific traffic jams are not a general warning for a whole area, which is exactly what I want of the weather forecast. Good grief!
So we’ll have a general warning across south Wales that the roads are jammed up between 4pm and 6pm this evening?
No... but I would like to know if for example there's an accident on the M4 causing even more tailbacks than usual. It always happens, but it's occasional, and requiring alternative plans to be made.
You want to know where the specific traffic jams are not a general warning for a whole area, which is exactly what I want of the weather forecast.
That is what you get. You don't get a warning that says 'it might be a bit chilly because it's January'. You get one that specifically says 'there will be a lot of rain in this area, that is likely to cause flooding in the normal areas'. Because whilst certain areas are prone to flooding, you don't know exactly which ones are going to flood on any given day. The Met Office have a good idea though, but you don't want them to tell anyone because it slightly irritates you.
<br />I can imagine there’ll be a few folks getting worked up about this one…definitely a day for not going out! I know quite a few of the Lifeboat crew and they’ll be hoping the same.
But.. not everyone is the same.. you know that right?
Of course, but its the people with alerts who are not happy with the warnings....
I can imagine there’ll be a few folks getting worked up about this one
The XC weather forecast for today for my area when I went to bed last night was 4 inches of snow and -7 degrees
It's currently +3 degrees and raining
Their forecasts are notoriously pessimistic
^^^ yep, still under a yellow snow and ice Met office and BBC warning and it’s rain showers, sun and 3 to 4 degrees.
No wonder folks ignore the warnings, leading to the whole cry wolf culture.
Their forecasts are notoriously pessimistic
Most weather sites and apps use global models, sometimes with some extra interpretation on top. These are pretty low resolution and hence not that accurate for your location. The Met Office is the best for the UK. But even then, when they put a picture of a cloud and a snowflake when you type in your postcode, that is not a guarantee - that's not how it works. They will know with a high degree of confidence that a band of snow for example is crossing the country from east to west. But they may only know its path and extent to within 50 miles or so - which is quite a long way in the UK. So if they say it's going to snow across southern Scotland and Northern England, and it does, then they're 100% correct. However if you live near the edge of the system, and it is only slightly out, you will see the forecast as 100% wrong.
No wonder folks ignore the warnings
It's because people don't understand how weather forecasting works and they want the moon on a stick. If you really want a proper view of the weather watch the video forecasts on YouTube - they talk you through what their models are saying and the language reflects how they are thinking - they don't just read out a list of locations and snow/sun/rain etc, they tell you that there's a front across some part of the country and it is probably going to be rain but there's a chance of some falling as snow on higher ground. It's a much better way to look at it.
they talk you through what their models are saying and the language reflects how they are thinking – they don’t just read out a list of locations and snow/sun/rain etc, they tell you that there’s a front across some part of the country and it is probably going to be rain but there’s a chance of some falling as snow on higher ground. It’s a much better way to look at it.
Sounds like a weather forecast to me, instead of a one-word weather warning covering hundreds of miles? Does that bring us back to where we started?
It’s because people don’t understand how weather forecasting works
This really does read as 'everybody's thicker than I am'. Do you really think that we all gaze slack-jawed at Derek the weatherman and wonder why he's talking about localised floods? 😀
IMO they make these warnings much more easily than they used to- perhaps in part after the non hurricane warning linked to above<br /><br />I have had warnings for here where there is nothing unusual at all. I tend to ignore the warnings and look at actual forecasts
It’s because people don’t understand how weather forecasting works
So you're saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?
It took a long time but it's great to see STW finally agree with the Daily Mail and Tory MPs over something:
But Conservative MP Peter Bone dismissed the 'nanny state' tone, saying: 'There will be a time when there is a need for a real alert because temperatures are very high. The danger is if you issue them all the time, people ignore them. They ought to be careful about issuing alerts.'
It's what every red-blooded gammon is saying......."WE DIDN'T NEED THE BLOODY GOVERNMENT TO TELL US THAT IT WAS HOT IN SUMMER AND COLD IN WINTER WHEN WE WERE KIDS!!!" 👺🤬
IT'S ALL PART OF THE SO-CALLED "CLIMATE CHANGE" SCAM! innit
Who is this "STW" you often refer to, as if all other posters think as one?
Other than that... I agree... the Met Office provides useful information, some of it as "warnings", everyone can do what they sit fit with that information. It's like people who moan about exhaustive food labelling... if you don't need to or want to know what's in the food you're buying... just ignore it! Others need to know, or find it useful at times for their own decision making on what to buy or eat.
[ EDIT: a closer example is probably food traffic light nutrition labels I suppose ]
as if all others posters think as one?
Good point. STW is veritable minestrone of political diversity!
So you’re saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?
Given how people have been struggling with the concept of a yellow warning that does seem to be the case. God knows how they handle a proper forecast.
So you’re saying that there needs to be yellow warnings because folks are too stupid to work it out for themselves?
Yes. In case you hadn't noticed, a large number of people are really quite stupid.
Almost the whole UK now under Amber warning for later, don't think that happens to often
The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.
Put off a bike ride this morning due to the high winds. It was a lovely morning 😡
How many different types [of warning] are there?
This week we've had Ice and Snow, Wind and Rain (all separately) There should be a bingo card if you get all of them ticked of, and people could win prizes.
Well, our Tesco delivery has been cancelled! I am sitting up and taking notice...
The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.
Put off a bike ride this morning due to the high winds.
yeah the yellow warning here was from noon today and the amber from 6.00pm, nothing about the morning... perhaps you are over egging your response ?
The warning categories are rain, thunderstorms, wind, snow, lightning, ice, extreme heat and fog. That would be quite a week.
The complete over egging of what the conditions are going to be is a bit frustrating at times.
Its was a yellow warning to begin with. You are supposed to review and make decisions based on that.
For example I had the yellow warning and was still planning on a ride although would have been going for a loop which would have been relatively close to home at all times vs one heading miles out and then having to come the same miles back.
As it stands though whilst its not overly windy since the gusts have been strong and frequent I decided against it.
Strongish wind is one thing but I hate inconsistently strong wind when cycling.
Wow this really has descended into a pit of **** ishness.
I'd suggest going out for a walk but given the forecast I'd suggest a **** instead to relieve whatever it is you have pent up that you've otherwise been releasing as abuse for folk you disagree with.
Its was a yellow warning to begin with. You are supposed to review and make decisions based on that.
Warnings aside, the MET office was telling me it was 25/40 speed/gusts at the time I was looking out of the window (8am) and the tree tops weren't even moving.
I could only assume that it would possibly get a bit nasty whilst I was out as it was forecast all day and getting worse. This morning was lovely - perfect conditions. It looks a litle bit breezy now
Well, our Tesco delivery has been cancelled! I am sitting up and taking notice…
National computer failure, not weather. I'm one of the lucky one in four drivers still out delivering now in West Yorkshire. Calm down, ladies, it's (waves hand vaguely) winter weather. The groceries must get through!
Our anemometer has already reached a gust speed of 97kph here in the Cotswolds and it's not even at the forecast worst point yet. This could get interesting.
Wind has picked up substantially here (SE Manchester). This morning wasn't too bad but it's definitely got a lot worse in the last couple of hours...
Forecast here in Beamish is 25mph gusting to 50mph right now. My anemometer mounted on the end of a 5m pole in the garden, surrounded by sweet FA, at 115m elevation up a hill is currently showing 8mph with gusts of 20mph and hasn’t really seen an increase since about 12. It really feels like the meto have Cpl Jones in charge of the warning system. 
30 gusting to 50 @ the moment, had to rig up an internal tv aerial otherwise iiiiiiiitttttttttsssssss vvvvvverrrrrrryyyyyy bbbbbblllllloooocccccckkkkkky
Barometric pressure is falling at 5.5 mBar / hr at the moment here in Salford. Isha is definitely moving in.
Highest gust up to now is 28 mph from my Davis sensor unit mounted on a pole on my shed.
Yet another people confused that their weather is different to someone in another location shockfest.....
though it's very mild for the time of year. and the wind seems to be breaking up the doomsday rain predicted.
@ElShalimo - what was the point of that post?
"Another people?" what like the Mayans?
We're quite rightly discussing weather conditions that are rarely seen in this country. Amber warnings for winds over such wide inland areas are almost unheard of.
Let us know what we're permitted to discuss please.
Stupid people need to learn by screwing up. That's how humans have done so for thousands of years. Just look out the flaming window.
I can barely see the need for any weather forecast. You know that it is likely to be changeable at any time so just take a coat.
But then others will have to put themselves at risk to rescue the adventurous ignorant people
some lairy landings and bails on big jet tv today
Neighbours recycling bin has just blown over.
Plastic semi skimmed milk carton now going across the road.
Shouldn't even be in the recycling as they don't take plastic.
Flight radar shows lots of go arounds and holding patterns at Glasgow airport. Belfast seems to be a struggle too.
Flight radar shows lots of go arounds and holding patterns at Glasgow airport. Belfast seems to be a struggle too.
Just came to post that - pop onto FlightRadar and there are 2 aircraft on 7700 (emergency) squawks, both on divert. One originally scheduled for Belfast appears to be diverting to Manchester. They show up as red on the map, click on them and you can see the flight pattern of holding for ages then heading off to an alternate landing option.
A friend of mine is due back into Manchester later tonight, already told her it'll be a rough landing! Cos I'm helpful like that.... 😂
My point was the metoffice seem to be taking a massively pessimistic view to issuing warnings. As a result I think their messaging, particularly the yellow and to some extent the amber warnings, have little to no impact on public behaviour.
The Netatmo weathermap, from stations that have anemometers installed, bears a poor correlation to the forecast for the evening, so far.
Of course Karma will now kick in & I fully expect my roof to end up down the hill with the lane blocked by a series of fallen trees while our power lines dance around sparking wildly, like last time.
My letter box is rattling..it's only a cheap pressed steel/alu flap, and I've previously duct taped a bunch of 2p coins to the underside of the flap to give it some weight, but it's lifting and banging tonight.
My cheap £30 kettle BBQ as migrated across the garden and toppled over... I'm just gonna leave it there until the weather calms down and I can see how busted up it is.
We're now up to 117kph on the front of the house. I can hear the tiles starting to lift. Now we see how well anchored the (flush mount) solar panels are!
Ryanair flight apparently from Manchester to Dublin is having a lovely tour of northern Ireland and England.
Held at Dublin, diverted to Belfast and held, diverted to Glasgow and held and now who knows where it's off to - another attempt in Dublin or possibly just right back to Manchester!
Flight radar shows lots of go arounds and holding patterns at Glasgow airport. Belfast seems to be a struggle too.
my Aer Lingus flight today at 15.45 from Brum to Belfast was cancelled, due to the storm, bit of a pain but at least I had not got as far as the airport... fingers crossed for tomorrow!
I’m supposed to be flying to Munich tomorrow morning. I’m feeling pretty sick about it.
Oh the Ryanair flight has landed at Liverpool. 3hrs to fly from Manchester to Liverpool! 😳
It was about 3hrs late taking off, it's now taken another 3hrs to fly a big loop of the Irish Sea and now it's landing 32 miles from where it started. Bet there's some pissed off passengers on board that one!
Glad of the weather warnings this weekend. Used them to persuade my 90 yo Mum who cant get up if she falls and who lives alone in an exposed coastal property in a remote D&G village with the main coast road currently closed and the other likely blocked not to go out of her house this afternoon and "sort the bins out".
Peak gusts are forecast for 70mph there, but add in the exposed location (on a corner & the beach is opposite her drive) and the gusts are likely to be 20-30% higher
possibly just right back to Manchester!
Gone to Liverpool!
My sister is on the Rotterdam to Hull over night ferry tonight. That should be fun!
Gone to Liverpool!
Flipping heck. I don't know much about aviation, but I remember seeing comments from some pilots about carrying excess fuel for emergency diversions and how they are kinda pressured into flying with minimal reserves by some airlines... They must have been running on fumes by the time they landed 🙁
Kryton57Full Member
I’m supposed to be flying to Munich tomorrow morning. I’m feeling pretty sick about it.
I wouldn't worry - It's much harder to land these things in a storm than it is to take off. Munich is nice and calm at the moment. If you're in the center head on over to the Lucid electric car shop - It's a lovely thing!
Getting pretty windy here - my flat amplifies the wind especially the noise of it due to the buildings shape and m flats location in it. Very gusty - and its just dropped completely. Its nothing like as windy as the forecast tho
@Andy thats a heartwarming tale.
I wouldn’t worry – It’s much harder to land these things in a storm than it is to take off. Munich is nice and calm at the moment. If you’re in the center head on over to the Lucid electric car shop – It’s a lovely thing!
It's turbulence I'm frightened of. I have this in the morning and.... have a look at the Munich Weather for my apparent return on Wednesday. 🙁
They must have been running on fumes by the time they landed 🙁
That could easily have been the reason for the two flights running on 7700 emergency beacons earlier.
Could do with one of STW's resident pilots like @Flaperon or @dantsw13 or @boardmanfs18 on the thread but maybe they're up there battling the wind too!
Be interesting to hear their stories if so!
It’s not a day to mess about with fuel, everyone tends to want to divert to the same airports, which can fill up very quickly.
Lots of fuel buys you options and time.
I suspect all the crews flying tonight have taken a lot of spare fuel, I’d certainly have enough for a couple of approaches at destination then off to a pretty solid alternate - possibly mainland Europe.
Flying Belfast to Gatwick early doors, first flight then train to Surrey for work. Not sure what to expect. Roaring over here currently. Tempted to say I won't be in. Anyone experience of the railways around LDN during times like these? Is it going to be a day of delays?
Stupid people need to learn by screwing up. That’s how humans have done so for thousands of years. Just look out the flaming window.
That’s why we’ve learned to forecast weather as just guessing and taking a coat doesn’t work as well.
I bet whoever is out early doors tomorrow doing live stream footage from airports is going to go viral!
Remember that storm a few years back when Big Jet TV smashed all previous records?!
I’d certainly have enough for a couple of approaches at destination then off to a pretty solid alternate – possibly mainland Europe.
A ryanair flight from Manchester to Dublin got diverted to Paris Beauvais (wherever that is, given its ryanair I am assuming somewhere in Germany).
edited since wrong way round.
😆
It’s turbulence I’m frightened of.
Turbulance I can cope with, it's hitting the deck at 400mph I’m frightened of!
A ryanair flight from Dublin to Manchester got diverted to Paris Beauvais (wherever that is, given its ryanair I amd assuming somewhere in Germany).
Having flown to it once, I can assure you it's nowhere near Paris, in fact it's nowhere ****ing near anywhere! Pity the poor passengers ending up there, there is **** all in the way of facilities anywhere nearby!
Maybe Ryanair can just rebrand it as Manchester East....
Just look out the flaming window.
But that doesn't tell me what the weather will be in 2 days' time. And before you make the standard quip about forecasting, this current wind was forecast days ago.
It’s turbulence I’m frightened of. I have this in the morning and…. have a look at the Munich Weather for my apparent return on Wednesday. 🙁
Turbulence has never brought down a modern aircraft. We design for extreme gust loads in both the structure and safety systems for the aircraft. It may get bumpy, but stay strapped in and you'll be fine.
The wind direction for Wednesday in Munich is perfectly aligned to the runway and seems to be stable (less gusts) which is exactly what you want. It's also 1/3 less than the UK at the moment. Also, whilst the weather in Munich may be bad on Wednesday it'll be much better for your landing in England and again, the landing is the tougher part.
TUI flight from Sharm el-Sheikh to Glasgow on an emergency beacon, looks like it's diverting to Manchester or Liverpool.