You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
Can't see Tsipras being that popular with the masses.
I think that the "masses" will see that Tsipras, and their country, were simply totally ****ed by the EU. Let that be a lesson when we vote in our own referendum.
I'm struggling to see what Tsipras and Syriza stand for, if they say for months they won't and then cave in so badly at the end. Bizarre they could have done all this ages ago, probably at less onerous terms.
Rumour is that $80 billion isn't enough and it's more like $100 billion they need, so a what chances on Greece coming back looking for more before Christmas?
Two fingers? No, Greece has got fisted by the EU. It's an awful thing to watch happening. Where's a parliament storming mob when you need one?
No, Greece has got fisted by the EU.
The Greeks have screwed themselves :
[url= http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/06/16/poll-7-in-10-greeks-want-the-euro-at-any-cost/ ]Poll: 7 in 10 Greeks Want the Euro at Any Cost[/url]
Which is precisely why they are where they are today. Fear of life outside the Eurozone/EU overrides everything else.
We should offer them a swap - they can have this rainy shit hole and 100bazillionclagnuts or whatever and we can all go and live in the sunshine.
They've been well and truly shafted though and it's only going to get worse, thy're about to give away any chance they have of a recovery and any future source of state value creation. They may have made their bed and they do indeed have to lie in it but it was a bit unnecessary for everyone else to do a poo in it.
dragon - MemberBizarre they could have done all this ages ago, probably at less onerous terms.
Not bizarre, they just thought the troika might do the right thing. More fool them maybe but it shouldn't be such a crazy idea. Instead we have what looks like a disaster for everyone- no solution for greece, no sustainability for debtors, and an openly undemocratic result in the heart of europe.
The Greeks have screwed themselves
+1
Not bizarre, they just thought the troika might do the right thing.
Well on that I disagree, if you want to start negotiating don't start by p*ssing everyone off, continue doing so and then realise at the last you never had any power and eat humble pie by accepting awful terms. Syriza played it very badly from day 1.
They may have made their bed and they do indeed have to lie in it but it was a bit unnecessary for everyone else to do a poo in it.
Stabiliser - could I just congratulate you on your marvelous analogy. Had a bit of a snorting coffee/keyboard interface there 😆
The Greeks have screwed themselves :Poll: 7 in 10 Greeks Want the Euro at Any Cost
Well, yes, in that sense, but given the problems in creating a new currency (see here http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/11/behind-germanys-refusal-to-grant-greece-debt-relief-op-ed-in-the-guardian/ ) their room for manoeuvre was limited.
"To exit, we would have to create a new currency from scratch. In occupied Iraq, the introduction of new paper money took almost a year, 20 or so Boeing 747s, the mobilisation of the US military’s might, three printing firms and hundreds of trucks. In the absence of such support, Grexit would be the equivalent of announcing a large devaluation more than 18 months in advance: a recipe for liquidating all Greek capital stock and transferring it abroad by any means available."
Syriza played it very badly from day 1
Maybe, maybe not, but the end result was decided a long time before Syriza appeared on the scene.
we have what looks like a disaster for everyone
The winners are those who support the integrity of the EU and failed Eurozone experiment. Fear has triumphed and the power of wholly undemocratic institutions and financiers remains unchallenged. The risk of political contagion has been neutralized and the brief bolshie strop by the Greeks ultimately proved to be nothing more than a damp squib.
The power of bankers remains undiminished, whatever the economic consequences are ....... that's, relatively speaking, not very important.
Not often (if ever) I agee with Nigel Farage, but he's on Five Live pointing out the glaringly bleeding obvious....
"Greece can never funcion in the economic straight-jacket of the Euro, pegged to the German economy. Its simply never going to work!"
No shit sherlock!
Not often (if ever) I agee with Nigel Farage
Scary, isn't it? I will be voting NO despite him.
Scary, isn't it?
Not in the least. As binners points out he was [i]"pointing out the glaringly bleeding obvious".[/i]
If Farage decides to announce that the sky is blue it really won't worry me, his opinions about anything are completely irrelevant to me.
Blimey. The more detail coming out, the more it looks like Greece has just been bent over while 'The Troika' goes in dry. They are now officially Germany's bitch. They've effectively just signed over pretty much everythign they own.
Looks like a proper Baliffs-walking-out-carrying-the-telly job 😯
As the reality sinks in, how long before a resumtion of this....
[img] 
[/img]
Considering that the UK isn't actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn't that significant to the debate.
Although as THM has already pointed out the vote on the EU is currently so vague we don't know what exactly will be voting for. Factor in the USA putting pressure on the UK to stay in the EU and who knows.
There a few winners here other than common sense. Cue, the little boy pointing out a lack of clothes.
Desperate to watch. There is only one truism. €Z countries have not converged sufficiently to allow for a common currency without full fiscal union and other shock absorbers to deal with the lack of FX flexibility.
All blindingly obvious, but the € elite continue to try to hoodwink everyone else.
The referendum was always a ruse (sadly)
The best that can be said (and this is clutching at straws) is that this ultimately will be a back door fiscal transfer. It's bloody obvious that the deal as proposed will fail in time, but there will have been a transfer of finds to Greece that will have been hidden from the german population, But this really is trying to find a sliver of sliver lining on a very dark cloud.
Those who lied to us about the euro project should be holding their heads in shame at this, the inevitable denouement.
around 25% of the Greek economy is "grey" - some estimates put the figure a lot higher. If the Greek's had addressed the systematic tax evasion by their citizens over the last 10 years and put in place reasonable controls on spending they most likely wouldn't have needed these bail outs in the first place.
Sadly not very long Binners.
@ Dragon you could be wrong a year ago I was strongly pro eu and supported joining the euro , now I am against joining the euro and much less sure about the eu, all because of what has happened to ordinary greeks.
The Greeks have screwed themselves
-1
Unfortunately the Greek people have been shafted all along by their Government, and now it looks like the Greek people are going to be shafted by the rest of Europe.
If you speak to any Greek people the last few years have been very hard as it is with all their money being taken off them in taxes, and now its going to get worse..
Genuinely feel very sorry for Greek people 🙁
Gordi, it was every thus.
An uncompetitive workforce enters a fixed exchange rate. You either need a massive boost in productivity or you get wage deflation and/or unemployment. This is a clear as night and day which (as noted many times before) makes me wonder why left leaning people swallowed the idea. Very odd indeed.
Lessons need to be learned and the pillars of Europe recreated quickly.
Considering that the UK isn't actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn't that significant to the debate.
It's relevant inasmuchas it is now crystal clear that the leaders of the EU are a bunch of lying sadists. Euro or not, maybe that's not company we want to keep.
around 25% of the Greek economy is "grey" - some estimates put the figure a lot higher. If the Greek's had addressed the systematic tax evasion by their citizens over the last 10 years and put in place reasonable controls on spending they most likely wouldn't have needed these bail outs in the first place.
Blah blah blah.
That is not really the point now - what should be decided is the best way forward. If you really insist on digging over the bones it might be worth looking into how this aversion to tax has arisen (if, indeed, it has - the figures are not clear). Of course if you are a racist then it can just be put down to "lazy, corrupt Greeks".
It matters hugely to us - Europe needs to redefine itself. The status quo is bust. We cannot vote on something if we do not know what it is we are voting on - that was last week's story!
Who is the first to resign in Greece? Anyone yet?
[i] Brussels has just announced that with immediate effect. Any new Euro notes must be printed on Greece proof paper![/i]
That is not really the point now - what should be decided is the best way forward. If you really insist on digging over the bones it might be worth looking into how this aversion to tax has arisen (if, indeed, it has - the figures are not clear). Of course if you are a racist then it can just be put down to "lazy, corrupt Greeks".
Surely it is the point? As if they aren't prepared to pay taxes how the hell are they ever going to get out of this? As even if the debt was zeroed they would be back in the same position in another decade, cap in hand asking for yet more free money.
@richc - add yourself to the list, with jambalaya, of people I can't be bothered to discuss this subject with. There are lots of articles about this subject out there now, with background on Greek history and economics, and even some studies of how much tax is or isn't paid in Greece. Read the or not, as you wish.
Considering that the UK isn't actually planning to move to the Euro then what is happening to the Greeks really isn't that significant to the debate.
Well.. it is. The usual suspects in Brussells have demonstrated once again they're not prepared to let trivial stuff like actual evidence trouble their grand, doomed, idealogical project.
They're intransigence and total inflexibility in the face of the blindingly obvious is about to see them sacrifice a whole countries economy, just so they don't have to admit that they were wrong, and their stupid, fatally flawed, dogmatic currency project is totally unworkable.
As Dr J said ... maybe that's not company we want to keep.
Are these lot actually aware that next year Dave has got to try and win a vote on whether to stay in the EU? I wonder what they think that them all carrying on like unelected tinpot dictators looks like from here? Issuing their dictats to protect the interests of bankers? And sod the very real consequences to loads of people who are at the end of the day European citizens. And we thought Westminster looked remote and uncaring?
[i]Surely it is the point? As if they aren't prepared to pay taxes how the hell are they ever going to get out of this[/i]
Because it has precisely nothing to do with Tax take or Grey economy.
Greece collects 1-2% less than we do on tax, (about 34% of GDP, to our 35.5%) and yet no-one is seriously suggesting that the UK isn't efficient at collecting tax. Grey economy is another one, Bulgaria, Romania and Italy have a larger grey economy, our is 12% for goodness sake.
Greece was bust in 2010, the reason it wasn't sorted out was that the Govt of Germany and France were unwilling to have to tell their electorate that once again, even after 2008, their banks had got themselves in trouble, and they (the voters) would have to foot the bill again . So, instead of restructuring the debt and rearranging the Greek economy, they decided to pretend Greece was solvent, and just lend it more money.
This has always been about screwing the greeks, to protect German and French voters from having to pay for what their banks have done.
Remember: Profit is for Private, Debt is for the Public.
Apologies for this coming from the torygraph but this article by Boris (yes I know) is interesting and reflective of comments by some on here.
nickc has it
Europe converted Greece's debt from paper held privately - mainly by French and German banks to public debt held by the ECB, bailing out the bankers and shafting the Greek population.
The imposed austerity had seen the Greek economy contract by 25% in the last 5 years.
And the solution?
More of the same...
The celebrations in Athens after the referendum look even more bizarre now....
The debates in the FT are amusing. Particularly liked the discussions re the definition of hubris
"Extreme pride or self-confidence. When it offends the gods of Ancient Greece, it is usually punished."
So outside of the SNP (and even they are changeable on the subject) which UK party has proposed the UK join the Euro?
Greece collects 1-2% less than we do on tax, (about 34% of GDP, to our 35.5%) and yet no-one is seriously suggesting that the UK isn't efficient at collecting tax. Grey economy is another one, Bulgaria, Romania and Italy have a larger grey economy, our is 12% for goodness sake.
I don't think that's true. I think our taxation is ~ 39% of our GDP compared to 30% of Greece.
The kicker is Greece has 250% more self employed professionals, which are paying little or zero tax.
So outside of the SNP (and even they are changeable on the subject) which UK party has proposed the UK join the Euro?
Blair was keen. Before Gordon (thank god!) told him that it was him that did the sums, and the money stuff, and that definitely wasn't happening. He stuck to starting wars and stuff after that instead.
Since then, seeing as Brussells is about as popular as a fart in a lift in this country, poiticians realised that suggesting the economic suicide of the Euro would also mean political suicide for themselves.
Imagine just how ****ed we'd be now if we'd have been in the Euro straightjacket since 2008. It doesn't bear thinking about!
Some reading -
Neo-liberal game conditions for the euro, financial alchemists who speculated against Greece and enforced austerity: how Greece was made a scapegoat.
Many people think Greece should have never been allowed to join the EMU in the first place given that it was too underdeveloped and relied on devaluations. The assertion is not quite true. There were fixed exchange rates between 1950 and 1971; and although Greece was in much greater arrears [than now], it was steadily closing the gap. However, all this took place under Keynesian and real capitalist conditions (fixed exchange rates, low interest rates, “sleeping” stock exchanges and active economic policies). Hence profit-making was based on actual entrepreneurial activities in the real economy. The euro, on the other hand, was created under the neo-liberal conditions of financial capitalism (a combination of “Let’s have more of the private and less of the state sector” together with “Let’s make our money work for us!”). This has resulted in a fatal contradiction: on the one hand, monetary union has been an anti-neoliberal project (with the aim of finally overcoming currency speculation), but the rules defining its implementation have been purely neo-liberal (the primacy of monetary value over employment; austerity and cuts in social services; financial alchemy).
Stage 1: In 2000 the long-lasting stock market boom (i.e. a bull market) slipped into becoming a bear market and was followed by a recession. The “most neo-liberal” country, Germany, combined fiscal austerity with wage cuts and became mired in stagnation. Southern Europe benefited from the low euro interest rates, and wages and consumption expanded vigorously. Between 2001 and 2007, GDP in Germany rose only by 9.5 percent, while Spain recorded an equivalent figure of 24.1 percent and Greece a remarkable 27.0 percent. Consequently, imbalances in the current account widened: the German surplus was used to finance Southern Europe’s deficits, which in turn stabilised the German economy.
Stage 2: After a triple bull market (stocks, real estate and raw materials), the collapse of Lehman caused a triple bear market, and the simultaneous depreciation of the three main types of assets led to the great crisis. Given its budget and current account deficits, the countries of southern Europe were unable to combat the crisis as vigorously as Germany. What also emerged in autumn 2009 was that the budgeted figures which Greece had reported to the EU were (markedly) incorrect.
Stage 3: The financial alchemists now started to play a new game: the game of speculating and betting on national bankruptcy. Greece was the first target; the interest rate on its bonds started to rise and keep rising. If the President of the ECB or the German Chancellor had declared at the time (in spring 2010) that speculation against a member of the currency union would not be tolerated (just as Draghi did two years later), then we would all have been spared the euro crisis. But, as it was, high interest rates were regarded as a just punishment meted out by the “judges’ market”. And Merkel was keen to capitalise on the anti-Greece sentiment of lazy Greeks fuelled by the “Bild” Zeitung tabloid newspaper: she needed it for her election campaign in North Rhine-Westphalia.
Stage 4: The rise in interest rates forced the euro rescue package in early May 2010. IMF experts believed that Greece could not sustain its debt burden. The latter would have to be restructured and include a partial write-off on the part of the creditor banks. But the political decision decision-makers decide to act in favour of “their” banks: Greece now also needed to run up debts with the IMF. Under the supervision of Finance Minister Lagarde and Chancellor Merkel, ECB President Trichet’s bought Greek Government bonds from the banks, and the result was a superb feat of financial engineering: the German and French banks didn’t have to pay a cent for their reckless lending. Instead, the entire tab was to be paid for by Greece alone.
Stage 5: Consequently, the country was subjected to a form of special austerity treatment [German: einer sparpolitischen Sonderbehandlung unterzogen], the likes of which had never been seen before. A comparison with Portugal and Spain (2015/2008) demonstrates this very well: Greece cut the public sector wage bill by 24 percent; the equivalent figure for Portugal and Spain was 15 percent and 3 percent respectively; social transfers stagnated in Greece but in the other two countries they grew by 12 percent and 34 percent in each case. Total government spending in Greece fell by 12 percent. It rose by 18 percent in Portugal and Spain. The wage bill sank by 27 percent in Greece, but only by 8 percent in the other two countries. The number of the unemployed in Greece rose by 215 percent, in Portugal by 45 percent and in Spain by 98 percent.
Stage 6: The Greeks had sacrificed more than any other people in peacetime. Running on empty, they therefore voted for Syriza with its call for an end to austerity policies. Yet such a change of course back to a socially-minded Europe would require debt relief across the EU and an expansive economic policy to combat unemployment, poverty and debt.
Stage 7: The negotiations in the Eurogroup are pointless - in a religious war it is power (18:1) which counts, not the argument. This is why in their last “generous” offer the “good and decent” countries have put forward precisely the demands (VAT hikes and pension cuts) they know are already unpalatable for Syriza. And that’s how things have turned out. The choice here is either for the Greek people to drive out Syriza, or for us to drive out the Greek people. After all, the election of this party wasn’t quite in keeping with [what] the market [wanted].
Bottom line: Greece has massive structural problems, but they cannot be deemed the cause of the economy shrinking since 2008: it grew above average between 1950 and 2008, even in sub-periods.
Seven brief remarks by way of conclusion:
First: In my 43 years of being an economic researcher, I have never come across such a distillation of blatant lies as in the case of Greece (e.g. the Government have delivered no concepts etc., etc.). Most journalists have simply parroted [not investigated] this point of view.
Second: Austerity policies have challenged and diminished thousands of lives (dying, of course, is what you do outside the glare of publicity). If the rules of the games played by the neoliberal order and the financial capitalist establishment are, on the whole, flawed, then their hangers-on in the universities, think tanks, in the media and in politics are complicit. They, too, must shoulder their burden of responsibility.
Third: So the elites need a scapegoat. Greece is ideal: the Greek state has cheated (true), and is even pretty broken (true), the country is located in the sunny, carefree south and the people there have a dark complexion.
Fourth: If, in other EU countries, so many people were devalued and declassed as they have been in Greece, who would they vote for?
Fifth: Nazi Germany ran up debts in order to murder people; its debts were written off. But there was no money for the victims of the massacres in Greece. Greece ran up debts to live beyond its means; yet nothing can be written off in this regard.
Sixth: Social and Christian-Democratic elites [= CDU/CSU] have forgotten how to think with compassion. We may fight our political opponents “at the top”, but we cannot afford to forget the people “at the bottom” (for example, the millions of Greeks without health insurance).
Seventh: A Europe united on the basis of neo-liberalism is a pipedream. This way of looking at the world is not fit for purpose when it comes to different peoples living together in diversity. If the EU elites go on like this, we national residents shall [only] receive our “social warmth” in our “national communities”.
http://www.profil.at/ausland/stephan-schulmeister-griechenland-weg-in-die-depression-5746226).
[url= 
]Eurostat tax revenue collection figures[/url]
richc
Eurostat figures on tax take. Let me know when you find the figures you're looking for. (it's where I got my numbers from)
Well.... That showed the Euro-bullies eh?
Mmm think the people will have something to say about that!
I couldn't see Greece on that graph, world bank figures for 3 years ago make tax as % of GDP 3% higher for UK.
However in the article that DrJ linked too it pointed out that ~ 1 in 4 Euro's earned in Greece are undeclared hence tax free! And 27.5% of GDP is undeclared
[i]1 in 4 Euro's earned in Greece are undeclared hence tax free! And 27.5% of GDP is undeclared[/i]
and 16% in Germany, and 12% in ours, 27% in Italy
Overall in the whole of the EU it's 1 in 5.5E are undeclared
The point being that Greece are not really substantially worse or better at collecting taxes or controlling their shadow economy than pretty much the rest of the EU (certainly not significantly enough for it to have landed them in the situation they find themselves in now, the figures simply aren't there to support that view)
Hang on 12% vs 27.5% is a vast difference.
Though note that we're a lot better than average and anyway 88% vs 72.5% isn't such a huge difference.
[i]Hang on 12% vs 27.5% is a vast difference.[/i]
the point I was trying to make was that everywhere in the EU has a shadow economy, I think (off the top of my head) the average is 20%.
Just saying the Greek have themselves to blame because they don't pay tax and pay builders in cash is to miss what's going on by a country mile.
Hmm.. the more complex the issue, the more people are able to twist it to back up their own pre-existing ideas and then expound them on the internet....
molly, agree. Something we all do to a degree.
Well my position has changed. 6 months ago when Syriza won the general election I dismissed Syriza politicians as bourgeois academics with very little credibility. 6 months later I dismiss them as bourgeois academics with no credibility at all.
Today they have agreed to a package of measures which the Greek people not only rejected by a clear margin a week ago, but which Syriza itself urged them to reject.
They won no concessions, not even debt relief - the case for which had been made by the IMF, the only concessions made were all by Syriza.
Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don't suppose they will.
Is anyone surprised the US is putting pressure on it's special friend, the English speaking trading bridge to the other European countries? I wonder what threats of economic punishment have been made behind the scenes, they have punished us before when not playing ball! of course we don't like to talk about it, the battered wife that Britain is.
^ +1 ernie. Whether or not you think Tsipras & co are the good guys in all this, I don't think that there is any doubt at all that they completely misjudged the negotiations & have left the counrty in a much worse state than it would otherwise have been. First rule of negotiations is to understand who you are negotiating with. You can slag off the EU for being bullies or whatever, but Tsipras clearly did not have any idea of what was realistically achievable. If you don't have some concept of what your opponent's bottom line is you are always going to come unstuck.
I also think that trying to appeal to the other side's better nature while at the same time criticising them in completely undiplomatic language is also self-defeating. It is likewise counter-productive to bluff too strongly when you are clearly holding a weak hand. All the bluster that the Greek side came out with just infuriated the EU negotiators. If you are a debtor who is actually asking for more money then trying to dictate terms is a high-risk strategy. The referendum may have made for good populist politics but it was just a crazy idea if they were genuinely trying to get an agreement that suited Greece. What. a. mess.
Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don't suppose they will.
I suspect they probably will, but to be honest, there is no credible opposition - certain not the old Trots of KKE.
So to summarise for the I struggle with long sentences crowd
Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece's arse?
Is that about where they are?
not the old Trots of KKE.
You have got to be kidding me ! The KKE "Trots" ! 😆
The Trots, along with the Maoists, and the Eurocommunists, and all the other 'radical student politicians', are in Syriza. I thought you were reasonably well-informed about Greek politics DrJ. I can assure you that the KKE is completely Trot free 🙂
If I were a Greek voter I would vote KKE, precisely because it is free of bourgeois pseudo-leftists.
@ ernie - have a look back at what happened to Papandreou after Sarkozy cornered him last time: resignation, followed by deputy taking over followed by election.
I'm still not convinced that this isn't the ousting of a democratically elected government by the rest of the EU acting on behalf of their central banks.
(And as for the U.S., we all know the hand they played - including forcing Mutti to deliver that famous line ("I will not commit suicide") while weeping at the Cannes summit during the Italian debt crisis.... Which of course resulted in Monti being appointed in lieu of the elected Berlusconi.)
For all of Greece's faults - a two tier society dominated by tax dodging oligarchs - my faith in the EU has been sorely dented as a result of this debacle.
Syriza should now do the decent thing after their complete failure to carry out what they were elected to do, and resign and call a general election. I don't suppose they will.
Its kind of academic now which parties nominally 'in charge'. They've no actual power. They've just signed over all the decision making to Brussels and Berlin. They might as well just dissolve parliament, and refuse to go along with maintaining the ridiculous charade that they are somehow still a democracy. All decisions of any consequence will now be taken by faceless EU technocrats, issuing decrees from Brussels .
They've had a go at that before. It didn't go well. Its going to be a hell of a lot worse this time around. I expect the rioting to start imminently.
If anyone thinks this farce today is actually going to resolve anything, or even remotely improve the situation, they're living in la-la-land.
@ piemonster - best analysis I've read to date!
Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece's arse?
Aye, but did they take three fingers in preference to a full on fisting? If so, that's a win in my book.
Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece's arse?
I think it might be a full fist. Oh well live in a dreamworld it'll eventually turn into a nightmare, probably a recurring one. This deal won't stick or work, we'll be back again in six months.. The Greeks should have Grexited for their own benefit. At least they'd have some control over their future.
I also think a lot of people will quietly applaud the EU for notting letting the Greeks 'get away with it' so don't assume the EU will come out of this with it's reputation in tatters. For all the shouting about the bully boy EU there will be a lot of people quietly keeping their views to themselves for fear of getting abuse. Anyone remember our recent election?
Greece stuck two fingers up at the EU, the EU then proceeded to stick 3 fingers up Greece's arse?
No sticking three fingers up their arse would have been ejecting them from the euro and the EU. Greece has been given a firm slap, that's all.
The EU didn't have the balls to do the right thing and walk away instead it's throwing good money after bad. Junker is trying to get the UK on the hook for a £1bn even though we have a written agreement that the UK will not participate in future bailouts, Cameron go that in writing as it was obvious where this was heading years ago. French Government is trying to spin the bailout as a victory for Hollande but there is widespread disagreement from the French left as they think the bailout money would be better spent in France
The EU didn't have the balls to do the right thing and walk away
So now you're arguing in favour of debt forgiveness, that's a change in stance. I'm assuming that you don't approve of the Germans, bankers, and unelected EU bureaucrats, seizing Greece's few remaining assets then, good for you. Welcome aboard 🙂
You have got to be kidding me ! The KKE "Trots" !
My bad. I was using "Trots" as a lazy short hand for "irrelevant frustrated revolutionaries". Either way, the only winners on the political stage here are Golden Dawn. This is precisely what Varoufakis warned against months ago.
In an ironic kind of way - all we are seeing now is Europe behaving is the way it has to happen under the current construct, even though this was not the design. We are seeing a massive fiscal transfer along the likes of the transfers to Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Of course, under the treaty setting up the € these transfers were forbidden - but hey, it was badly designed from the start.
And then centralisation of power and fiscal policy. So the new fund under central administration - this is just the required reality albeit through the back door. And guess what? People don't like it and why should they.
An appalling but predictable outcome.
Politics may trump economics in the ST, but the dismal science wins out in the end. Here is more proof, if it was ever needed.
[i] And then centralisation of power and fiscal policy. [/i]
I'd hope that's as unlikely now as it's ever been and likely now, ever to be.
When the EU parliament can't even achieve sign-off for their annual audit, it's not likely anyone would sign over total fiscal control at state level.
EU is turning into a proper dogs breakfast and if Europe want the UK public to vote to leave, handing us a bill for the Greek bail out is a good effort in achieving just that!
Either way, the only winners on the political stage here are Golden Dawn.
Another irony is that the EU in its original form was designed to ensure an end to conflict after the last little dust up. Yet in its present form, its demonstrating how far it has come from those ideals, by blindly folowing a path that is increasingly fuelling the rise of the extreme right wing parties. Not least in Germany.
Brussells seems to just close its eyes and ears to everything it doesn't want to see or hear, and plough on with 'the project' regardless of the consequences, intended or otherwise.
So as I understand it the deal was agreed to save Greece but it isn't final until a load of laws and amendments get through the Greek parliament. These laws and amendments have to be passed by end of play tomorrow otherwise we are back to the same situation it was all in on Sunday morning. So nothing is yet certain.
This hasn't stopped the media claiming disaster has been averted for now and the EU issuing us a bill for something we have no say in. Does anyone else think this situation is just a little bit bonkers?!?
These laws and amendments have to be passed by end of play tomorrow otherwise we are back to the same situation it was all in on Sunday morning.
I think we can take it as read that we'll be back in the same situation pretty imminently, and the whole farcical, ****ed-up Eurozone-merry-go-round will keep spinning
Alternatively, it all takes a new direction.
France manages to push the suggestion of deploying the EFSM and gets other EU members to agree.
Of course, Dave and George will refuse and remind everyone about the 2010 agreement.
France and Co refuse to listen and insist on using EFSM.
UK says no and is made to look to be the bad guy unless it agrees to EFSM and receiving a bill for the bail out.
So, barring a miracle, the last week or so of Euro leaders' meetings and the Greek referendum has been one giant waste of time and money 😆
It's like a grown-up, very large primary school playground 😯
Shall we start a sweepstake on when Germany (who are bankrolling this really) take their ball away?
Germany can't take its ball away. The way the Euro is structured surpresses the true value of a single German currency, with the rest of Europe effectively subsidising German exports, by collectively devaluing the Euro, compared to the deutschmark.
If the Eurozone implodes, then the German currency is no longer artificially deflated, and its exports all of a sudden reflect the true strength of the German economy. You see all those fleets of Leased Beemers and Audis clogging up the fast lane, sat half an inch off your bumper? Well you wouldn't be seeing so many of those any more, because they'd rocket in cost, making the German car industry, as well as all its others, uncompetitive overnight.
The Greeks know this.
Its a high stakes game on both sides this. Not as one sided as the Germans would have everyone believe
So Greece knows that Germany cannot risk them leaving as it would cause German exports to suddenly become excessively expensive and hit their GDP.
Germany knows that if Greece goes belly-up then it could cause a domino effect and that will cause the Eurozone to go into further depression and hit their GDP.
If the Eurozone keep on 'lending' Greece money that it cannot afford to repay then things will continue for the time being until the EU runs out of money itself and cannot support the Greek economy, causing the Eurozone to collapse.
Is there a case for making Greece default by withholding funds then rebuilding from the ground up their financial affairs? I know this would cause short-term problems but it's looking more favourable to long-term instability as we lurch from one crisis to another, with all the other bad-case scenarios still lurking to strike at any moment. At least the EU could all work towards fixing a defined set of problems that will be foreseeable in the main rather than the knee-jerk reactions we are currently going though!
My knowledge of world financial affairs is a bit rusty as I switched off from it all for the last few months so trying to catch up!!
It's like a grown-up, very large primary school playgroundOh you've only just noticed and all the things we were told not to do as a child governments do everyday. My my what an example they set for the rest of the plebs! it's no wonder the world is a clusterf$$k of deceit with a nice shiny lip service multicultural corporate brochure, keeping up appearances façade, hhhhmmmmmmm what to do............
The balancing act Gemany is doing is working out if the unofficial subsidy its receiving for is exports is bringing in more than it continues to pour into the bottomless moneypit that is the Southern Eurozone. Or what the export income it would lose would be if it collapsed.
You can tell by their enthusiasm to keep it going which way the maths is presently stacking up.
An interesting theory is that the Euro would probably work as a (hugely devalued) currency if Germany left it. That would be brilliant for everyone else. But that wouldn't work for Germany. So that aint happpening!
So basically Merkel's the key player to watch in this current round? If she changes message about whether to help Greece or not is the main indicator of which way it's going to go.
Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse, Germany has been running a false economy for many years propped up by the euro. This is not a one sided fight and France is no better protected than Germany they are potentially at much greater risk than Germany (higher unemployment, restrictive labour market etc) the last thing France or s
Can't imagine that the latest from the IMF is going to make easy reading for Germany.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/07/14/uk-eurozone-greece-imf-report-idUKKCN0PO1C920150714
Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse, Germany has been running a false economy for many years propped up by the euro. This is not a one sided fight and France is no better protected than Germany they are potentially at much greater risk than Germany (higher unemployment, restrictive labour market etc) the last thing France or Spain or Italy want is a Greece with a massively devalued Drachma currency - for all their posturing it's the Germans and French who are really s******g themselves Greece has nothing to loose compared to those two.
Binners is spot on Germany simply can not afford Greece to collapse
Well, Germany have been doing their level best to force Greece out of the Euro since they have now outlived their usefulness, saturated the market with BMWs(*) and Bosch fridges, and now cost money. Question is, what happens next, when the process repeats in Spain or Italy or France.
(*) Much as I love the Greeks, they are a bunch of bloody idiots. When I'm there I drive quite a bit and I'm overtaken all day long by Beamers, Mercs and Audis, and I can hardly get past them parked on our narrow lane to get home.
Dr J - a lot of these 'loans' to Greece were really just finance deals on all those Beamers, Mercs and Audis. And other products of the German economy. Do you think they were allowed to spend that money on whatever they liked?
Like Model T Fords - any colour you like as long as its black, the Greeks could buy whatever they wanted..... as long as it had Made in Germany stamped on it
This thread is getting ridiculous now. Like a combination of JHJ and a Radio 5 phone in.