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Not official yet, but bloody hell!
Johnson's world just got a lot tougher.
Johnson’s world just got a lot tougher.
Particularly as it was essentially an own goal - if Paterson had taken the 30 days suspension for his misdemeanours and Johnson hadn't decided to stupidly attempt to change the rules retrospectively, Paterson would still be an MP and the Tories wouldn't be facing yet another PR disaster this week.
I can't believe how long its taken to announce the result - I want to go to bed.
Absolutely, almost all of it totally self inflicted. Incredible really.
That said... I'm now more than a little terrified at who will replace him.
5,925 majority for the Lib Dems overturning a 20k majority for the Tories in the last election (going from 63% to 31% of the vote) - a remainer party winning comprehensively in a leave voting area. Looking forward to seeing the Tories commenting on this loss.
A good end to a crap week and hopefully something we will see more off in the next year or so!
^^ Amazing stuff and fingers crossed!
Wow, just wow, that is huge, it wasn't even close.
what a lovely surprise to wake up to.
Bloody hell, I really didn't see that coming!
Really happy about this result. 🙂
Great result, the only problem is it came too late for the papers to splash it all over their front pages. What will they announce to stop it dominating the Saturday editions?
Sadly we will now have an internal Tory squabble in the middle of an omicron fuelled wave.
Wonderful early Christmas present 🎁
Where shall I send the thank-you card - No 10 or the people of Shropshire?
Woody
34% swing in a supposedly safest of safe seat. Surely Boris can't even pretend he can carry on as PM now?
Either way. Great result 🙂
This is great, I had no doubt that the seat would be lost - I just didnt expect the Lib Dems to win with such a margin!
“Maggie Thatcher, Boris Johnson, Jacob Cream Cracker…your boys took one hell of a beating.”
Grayling, you **** , there are no more safe seats.
At last, a tiny glimmer of hope at the end of what seems like a very long, very dark tunnel.
Its great news, but a low turn out (46%) so while it will undoubtedly cause alarm, I reckon it will be spun as only because of the low turn-out / our loyal supporters being worried about covid not wanting to go to the polls ec.
Well this raised a smile this morning 👍
As for turnout, I think theres something in there about the type of voter that normally bothers to bother, often voting Tory. If that's the case it's still a loss for the Tories as the died in the blue wool voters couldn't bring themselves to do it this time round?
That's not a bad turn out for a by-election (bye election?). What amazed me was that it wasn't even close- 47% Lib Dem to 31% Conservative. Scathing!!
Why do people see it as good news?
Please tell me what difference it will make to any of us in north Shropshire?
Just about every leaflet we had through the door concentrated on sleaze and dishonesty, not the fact that the NHS and social care is absolutely broken in the area and you really don’t want to risk being ill enough to need hospital care
I doubt this latest person will change anything.
Why do people see it as good news?
Well, in terms of N Shropshire and in the context of current pork barrel politics its probably bad news for you Im afraid FunkyDunc. For the rest of the country its good to see the Conservative majority whittled down as whether you vote Conservative or not, it's hard not to spot that Boris with a massive majority is a bit of a liability, to say the least. One seat closer to him having to think a little harder about policy.
At last, a tiny glimmer of hope at the end of what seems like a very long, very dark tunnel.
Yup....
Hopefully this'll be the first of many.
Looking from the outside in, the UK is a shitshow.
Please tell me what difference it will make to any of us in north Shropshire?
On its own it'll make little difference. Its more of an indicator of mood and change to come. We certainty aren't there yet but we have made a slight change of direction
@FunkyDunc - whilst ever the Tories are in power, not much. But I have always viewed it that the local MP represents local issues. The party they are aligned to represents national strategy.
So the more support that is chipped away from Boris the better
I think people are deluded if they think by party has the ability or want to make any difference
Looking from the outside in, the UK is a shitshow.
looking from inside the UK I agree
I have always viewed it that the local MP represents local issues.
Ha ha You'd think that ....ever met a Scottish Tory.
Lower turn out could be possibly due to many,many traditional conservative voters abstaining - who do they vote for when they feel their closest political party either doesn't represent them or misrepresent them? So they don't vote. But many of those that did turn up swung to Lib Dems as the middle ground.
To me it's seems the conservative party is in a similar place to the labour party when it was under JC - too far away from many of its voters to tread. BJ won an election, against an extremely week opposition. He won on the promise of a brexit of green grass and roses over the hill - but his reality is a global pandemic and a brexit of brown murky stuff in our rivers and waterways.
The polls show a swing to labour, which again I'm surprised at as personally KS still isn't in a place of credibility opposition. BJ's approval rating is through the floor for the first time, but KS isn't doing all that well either.
It's a dark time for UK politics.
It's good news because it's another nail in bozo's coffin and you may have noticed that he happens to be the most dishonest and unsuitable PM anyone can remember who is totally unfit to lead the country through a crisis. So the closer he is to the exit, the better.
I doubt this latest person will change anything.
At least they'll likely be working for the people of Shropshire rather than lining their own pockets
I've just been looking at the turnout for previous by-elections. 46% is one of the highest
http://www.ukpolitical.info/by-election-turnout.htm
Merry Christmas, everybody. 😀
But many of those that did turn up swung to Lib Dems as the middle ground.
Which would be a problem for Starmer trying to chase the centre ground. It aint that big despite the delusion of some.
Looking at the voting numbers.
The majority is probably accounted for by a shift from Labour to Libdem with a few thousand top up on top who could just well be those lib dem/labour voters who didnt bother voting in a safe seat election (the lib dem vote is close to the Labour vote in 2017).
So I would doubt many tories switch but simply didnt turn out which is reflected in the drop in turn out numbers.
Whatever Boris must be feeling very unhappy and that makes me very happy. The worry now is what brain fart will no 10 come with as a distraction?
Hexham has lost its Tory councillor. It’s been Tory for years and is the perfect example of a town turned Tory, an old market town full of pretentious gentry.
Sadly we will now have an internal Tory squabble in the middle of an omicron fuelled wave.
What do you mean "now", the internal "squabble" is the same one that brought us Brexit and the utter 5h1tstorm we've been living with for the past 5 years.
So I would doubt many tories switch but simply didnt turn out which is reflected in the drop in turn out numbers.
And in First Past The Post land, it doesn't matter - all that counts is that you get more votes than the next most voted for.
And in First Past The Post land, it doesn’t matter – all that counts is that you get more votes than the next most voted for.
Actually it kinda does. Since if you havent convinced them to switch them next time round if they do bother to vote then they are likely to be tory again. Its purely reliant on the tories not turning out to vote.
I don’t think this result means anything positive in the medium or long term - as above FPTP and entrenched support will put paid to that - but it sucks for Boris and I’ll take that as a win.
Further worry that the headbangers will say they lost because of too much lockdown and too many immigrants and regulations, and then push harder to turn us in to UltimateToryLand. Still, for today, woo!
'And in First Past The Post land, it doesn’t matter – all that counts is that you get more votes than the next most voted for.' and there's plenty of Tory MPs who haven't got a 23000 majority. Sadly though, FD has it.
the died in the blue wool voters couldn’t bring themselves to do it this time round?
Made me laugh. And it is, I suppose, a potential solution 😃
5,925 majority for the Lib Dems overturning a 20k majority for the Tories in the last election (going from 63% to 31% of the vote)
Hmmm, I'm inclined to see this as a relatively lightweight, mid-term protest from the core Tory demographic than a substantial shift in the national picture. The Shropshire Tory faithful just stayed home rather then hold their noses and tick a different box.
I reckon the Torys can still count in that seat for the next GE, especially if Boris has been moved on by then.
More will be made in the press of this than it perhaps deserves...
Merry Christmas, everybody. 😀
Indeed! 😁
Hmmm, I’m inclined to see this as a relatively lightweight, mid-term protest from the core Tory demographic than a substantial shift in the national picture. The Shropshire Tory faithful just stayed home rather then hold their noses and tick a different box.
Very much this. But I really was expecting the Tories to cling on to it, so I'm calling it a win.
Though iirc, it's quite an agricultural constituency, so if Brexit vo tinges to unravel and impact agriculture, who knows?
Very much this. But I really was expecting the Tories to cling on to it, so I’m calling it a win.
Judging by the way the behave over everything else, maybe they'll just not acknowledge the result and carry on pretending that they're still in charge in Shropshire? 😀
I'm hoping the new woman can make some noticeable positive impact in the coming three(?) years for her constituents, and gets a second term because she's a decent local MP. Although it's true people primarily vote for party rather than local personality especially at GE time.
Though iirc, it’s quite an agricultural constituency, so if Brexit vo tinges to unravel and impact agriculture, who knows?
This constituency was also one of the highest brexit supporting ones in the country. Voting against the tories because of the impact of brexit would require them acknowledging they personally were wrong to vote in the referendum the way they did. That is a mountain that is never going to be climbed (to be fair it's probably the same the other way too - the UK is terminally polarised on this I fear).
But broadly, this result fills me with cheer. Even if it's a short term, vengeful, wouldn't piss on a tory party member to put a fire out, kind of cheer.
Given that it is such a brexity area, I’m sure those disappointed will have no issue getting over their loss.
Hmmm, I’m inclined to see this as a relatively lightweight, mid-term protest from the core Tory demographic than a substantial shift in the national picture. The Shropshire Tory faithful just stayed home rather then hold their noses and tick a different box.
Whilst I'd agree, it's such a safe seat that in previous elections I'd imagine a lot of center/left voters didn't even bother going out.
So it will be interesting to see if the momentum carries through.
This constituency was also one of the highest brexit supporting ones in the country. Voting against the tories because of the impact of brexit would require them acknowledging they personally were wrong to vote in the referendum the way they did. That is a mountain that is never going to be climbed (to be fair it’s probably the same the other way too – the UK is terminally polarised on this I fear).
Convincing people that they were wrong to vote for brexit will be hard.
I think it will be better to focus on the current settlement being a Tory deal which has sold them out.
could just well be those lib dem/labour voters who didnt bother voting in a safe seat election
Ah but what this shows is that change is possible. It is worth voting something different. As with the new northern tory seats, it'll probably revert, but it's a massive kick up the arse to complacent parties and MPs.
Convincing people that they were wrong to vote for brexit will be hard.
From what I've seen of the reporting of canvassing, the impact that Brexit is going to have on farming has been a major issue on the doorstep.
Convincing people that they were wrong to vote for brexit will be hard.
Not hard at all, they can see it all around them. I think what you actually mean is admit they voted for it.
Convincing people that they were wrong to vote for brexit will be hard.
+1
Probably impossible.
Not hard at all, they can see it all around them. I think what you actually mean is admit they voted for it.
Facts don't change opinions / beliefs when those opinions / beliefs are emotively held.
Loads of studies on the subject....
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds
https://jamesclear.com/why-facts-dont-change-minds
https://research.com/education/why-facts-dont-change-our-mind
Maybe the narrative needs to change then. Rather than 'Look, you dickhead - you voted for this and i'ts a disaster' perhaps 'They cheated you and tricked you into voting for something that isn't what they said it was. Not your fault.'
From what I’ve seen of the reporting of canvassing, the impact that Brexit is going to have on farming has been a major issue on the doorstep.
What exactly did these pro-Brexit farmers think was going to happen? (Having been a student at an agricultural college, I've lots of old friends who farm, in some way or another, but don't think that instigating an out of the blue text conversation with this would be appropriate! 😀 I also can't imagine that any of my farming friends would be stupid enough to think they'd be better off after Brexit.)
‘They cheated you and tricked you into voting for something that isn’t what they said it was. Not your fault.’
Which is mostly true. They were lied to, and sold a pig in a poke
What's fascinating is that both Tory & Lib dem canvassers said that the farmers they spoke to were very upset with how brexit had turned out😜
Not wishing to turn this into the Brexit thread but you don't need to convince people that Brexit was bad, just that this version of Brexit is bad. Brexit in name only lets a lot of people feel like they've won without them loosing face.
Pretty obvious the Brexit people were conned into voting for (wishful thinking, xenophobic over excitement, glorious empire, subtle racism) isn't what the government is delivering. Convincing them its OK to admit you were conned rather than just ain wrong is a very canny line for opposition parties to take.
Interesting BBC vox pop - local protest votes for local candidates if its in any way representative. And a warning to the other parties as well, if true
BBC News - North Shropshire by-election: How did Tories turn off true blue voters?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-shropshire-59694892
I see Johnson’s fridge buddy Laura K. has coined a new piece of alliteration - of which she is far to proud of given its mediocrity - miserable mid-term.
Now that the 1922 committee are accepting letters by email how long till we see a leadership challenge. Your bets on the table please.
It can happen at a general election too - Ludlow (which is the entire south of the county nowadays), and which I always thought beyond hope, elected a Lib Dem in 1997. Labour voters spotted the opportunity, but I do know that there were a lot of fed up Conservatives.
Crikey ... Lib Dems.
I do find a certain dose of Schadenfraude in the party wiped out by Tory policies in the coalition govt being the one handing out the kickings to Johnson now.
You don't have to convince people they were tricked. Just that the Tories are screwing up "the amazing opportunity of Brexit". So it's Johnson's fault not that of Brexit voters.
You don’t have to convince people they were tricked. Just that the Tories are screwing up “the amazing opportunity of Brexit”. So it’s Johnson’s fault not that of Brexit voters.
Fine in principle, but I couldn't say "amazing opportunity " and keep a straight face 🤣
Some tory mp on the news today when asked about this, didn't think a 34% swing and losing a seat that his party had held for two centuries could be considered a disaster of monumental proportions.
Muttered on something about covid.
Genuinely surprised by it and very happy, it's such a cliche that there's unassailable tory safe havens but I think most people would have put this one in that list. Richly deserved.
bruneep
Full MemberHa ha You’d think that ….ever met a Scottish Tory.
Hah. Fondly remember that time John Lamont was asked to vote for a national outdoor events award, which had Tweedlove in it, from his own constituency... He voted for the Henley Regatta