I've had a look around, but can't see this mentioned on here, so apologies if it's been done.
This article [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-27067615 ]BBC highlight the statistical link between lead in petrol and the crime rate[/url]
I find this absolutely fascinating; could it also point to the ever increasing pass rates of exams?
I suppose there's a history of discovering things that we surround ourselves with cause us harm (arsenic in wallpaper etc) but it makes me wonder about all the things that we expose ourselves to as a society. For example; antibacterial wipes/cleaners, diesel particulates, 'conditioned' air, fortified foods, washing products, deodorants etc etc.
Mind you, it's easy to come over all Daily Wail about it eh?
Mobile Phones, WiFi and the cancer rate has to be another...
Awaits jivehoneys YouTube post.... 😉
correlation != causation
kind of interesting article, but a journalist couldn't use a statistic to save their life.
there must be so many things that changed over a 10-20 year period (or longer) that it must be impossible to directly correlate any two curves.
There is a very interesting chapter on lead, particularly in petrol in Bill Bryson's book 'A short history of nearly everything'
Not to mention the phasing out of mercury amalgam tooth fillings, due to fluoridation of water and replacement by synthetic cements.
I've not read the article yet but,
Correlation does not equal causation. That is to say, for instance, that a reduction in crime rates and a reduction in pollutants could both be symptomatic of something else; a maturing society perhaps.
Mobile Phones, WiFi and the cancer rate has to be another...
Has it? Why?
Again, I've not looked it up yet, but if cancer incidence per capita has increased (has it?) then my gut reaction would be to attribute that to an improvement in diagnostic skills.
Oh, here we go.
http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/incidence/all-cancers-combined/
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From that graph you can clearly see the large spike in the last 20 years where everyone got home broadband and started carrying a mobile... oh.
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Not to mention the phasing out of mercury amalgam tooth fillings, due to fluoridation of water and replacement by synthetic cements.
Yes, probably best not to mention that. Given that a) we haven't - white fillings are offered for cosmetic reasons - and b) the people most vocal about any perceived health risks are the ones wanting to sell you new ones.
Amalgam doesn't have mercury sloshing about inside it, it's a stable alloy.
All fair points Cougar, I still think i'd prefer petrol without lead though.
The research shows some pretty close levels of correlation, for example in the US, state-by-state, as lead was removed from petrol at different times in different states, so crime rates fell at different times.
People will come up with pretty much any other explanation they can find to avoid admitting that [url= http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levitt/Papers/DonohueLevittTheImpactOfLegalized2001.pdf ]this[/url] is the real reason behind it.
correlation != causation
No, but pretty much all of epidemiology relies on using correlations to figure out what is going on as human biology is so complex you can't just identify the cause from cold.
You've reminded me of a book by Steven Levitt called 'Freakonomics'.
He mentioned a few things like the removal of lead in petrol causing a reduction in the crime rate. However the biggest issue he raised was the claim that the legalisation of abortion in the States made a huge impact on the crime levels 15-20 years after it was introduced.
I remember reading something about lead in wine and drinking water being linked to decline of Roman civilisation.
CRT tellies and PC monitors? 1995 ish must have been "Peak CRT" Or maybe it's due to the rise in overpriced coffee vs instant?
More likely to be due to Wimpy being ousted as the UK burger place of choice in the 80's and replaced by Mcdonalds and Burger King in much greater numbers.
Crime stats will have an approximate 10 yr lag of course, cos all the kids being fed Happy Meals for birthday treats instead of ice cream and jelly, probably aren't going to be crime stats until late teens / early twenties.
Thatcher nuking milk in schools must have added to that general increase in intelligence, better exam results, and eventually reduced crime stats.
😉
Hang on, when did disc brakes appear on mountain bikes? There's Hope for us all!
There's Hope for us all!
ISWYDT
29ers cause cancer
I knew it
Every time I used Octane Booster I went on a rampage 😉
20 years where everyone got home broadband and started carrying a mobile... oh.
That graph needs to be adjusted to incorporate age? We are living longer = higher chance of cancer. Also, detection rates are much better.
Can't believe no-one has posted the pirate/global warming graph yet...
there must be so many things that changed over a 10-20 year period (or longer) that it must be impossible to directly correlate any two curves.
The article is worth a read. They did more than just plot a couple of graphs. They did it for lots of countries and the correlation is extremely strong. So unless something else happened at the exact same time lead was phased out in the different countries (which was at different times), it's definitely something to consider.
Monbiot (yes I know) has more on it here
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/jan/07/violent-crime-lead-poisoning-british-export
The hypothesis does seem a bit more robust than a coarse population level correlation though.
This story has only come about in the first year of 650B, you'll notice... the new wheel size will save the world!
Radio 4 had a programme on this on Monday where Michael Howard was trying to take credit for his focus on imprisoning people in the 90's (even though this reduction in crime is a global trend). The more sensible commentators pointed to a whole range of factors which could all be partially linked to the fall in crime, rather than one single, definitive cause e.g. the cost of consumer electronics falling makes them worth less on the black market therefore not worth mugging and burgling in the first place... also, it's cheap enough for people to buy for themselves rather than nicking it.
I suspect in the UK at least it's because would-be criminals are now too fat to get out of the house to go and nick your stuff...
And there I was thinking that this would be a parody of the latest nanny state propaganda correlating the rise in alcohol price with a fall in A&E visits involeving violent alcohol related crime...
650B, ... the new wheel size
650b is not new
I still reckon it's the increase in iceberg lettuce and sesame seeds in kids' diets
imprisoning people in the 90's
I'd have thought they'd be too old and frail to cause much crime....
IGMC
No, but pretty much all of epidemiology relies on using correlations to figure out what is going on as human biology is so complex you can't just identify the cause from cold.
Epidemiology uses a number of techniques to try to differentiate between correlation and causation.
Linking mobile phone use and cancer together just because both have seen rises in the past 20 years is not "epidemiology".
the GF goes on about "weichmacher", or soft maker, something they put in plastic to make it soft. supposedly causes infertility in men which is fine by me as i don't want kids. but it is linked to the increase in mens fertility over the last few decades.
And Innospec, the company that makes the lead additive (tetraethyl lead), got a big old fine a few yers ago for bribing Indonesian officials to sytmie the legislation that would ban leaded petrol. I'm pretty sure they're the only company in the world that makes it.
I had a look round their factory in the beautiful Ellesmere Port a little while ago. The sludge pit made it into my top 3 places I hope never to fall into.
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I've got this up in my surgery, just to, you know, scare the masses....
DrP
the GF goes on about "weichmacher", or soft maker... supposedly causes infertility in men
Clue's in the name. (-:
She's talking about plasiciser, by the sounds of it. Not something I've come across before (as a health scare).
Its quite and interesting article and it does look like they might have something beyond a simple correlation.
Difficult to see how it could be proved definitively though without deliberately poisoning a bunch children and then seeing how they get on in 20 years time.
plasiciser
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasticizer
There are some questions, not sure if there are any definitive answers though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasticizer#Effect_on_health
Substantial concerns have been expressed over the safety of some plasticizers, especially because several ortho-phthalates have been classified as potential endocrine disruptors with some developmental toxicity reported.[8]
... where [8] is an offline resource so I can't check it. A bit more googling finds a few articles,
http://www.babycentre.co.uk/a1037227/plasticizers-phthalates-and-bisphenol-a-bpa
... is a good read and seems fairly balanced.
lead free petrol , legal abortion ,cheaper more accessible consumer goods and ready access to online porn, combine to achieve more in crime reduction than any punitive government policy.
Last thing I read on plasticisers was something where they made fish swim in water so contaminated that they became gender reassigned.
Most "health scares" are very much a journalistic thing with no context to the numbers, rather than a medical statistical thing.
I work with phalates and BPA. The research scares industry enough that they are contracting out further studies. Theres has been a lot of good work looking at phalates at levels you would find in the environment, not to mention the fact that we are finding gender reassigned fish out in the real world as well.
The hot topic at the moment is whether multiple chemicals at very low doses have combined effects as opposed to individual effects.
The more sensible commentators pointed to a whole range of factors which could all be partially linked to the fall in crime, rather than one single, definitive cause e.g. the cost of consumer electronics falling makes them worth less on the black market therefore not worth mugging and burgling in the first place... also, it's cheap enough for people to buy for themselves rather than nicking it.I suspect in the UK at least it's because would-be criminals are now too fat to get out of the house to go and nick your stuff...
This.... and the increasing prevalence of CCTV. Most criminal types are too fat to run away or too drunk or stoned to bother going out. My occasional encounters with the non-working underclass of Greater Manchester while drawing their benefits in the post office, tell me this is a significant factor.
Many fish change sex though..entirely naturally. Clownfish for one...in the finding memo movie nemo's dad would likely have turned into a female given the lack of other female clownfish in his environment.
I reckon Hollywood would never have coped with that plot.
In 'Freakonomics' see [url= https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCsQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Ffreakonomics.com%2F&ei=RatXU8CpJIiCPZy-gJgB&usg=AFQjCNH7XNCf8tTvm2NAviB9Z-AeORrObg&bvm=bv.65177938,d.ZWU ]here[/url] they suggest the causal link is actually between freely available abortion, and the decline in crime rates.
They suggest that less neds are getting born in the first place
Many fish change sex though..entirely naturally.
Of course, the suggestion is that the chemicals are triggering a natural process artificually, not that it's actually forcing a metamorphisis of something that would never normally be mutable.
