Is the cost of fuel/energy actually going to come down?

I think they will. Even with a lot of the smaller suppliers going bust, there's still a fair amount of competition in the market and the likes of Octopus will want to attract customers by offering attractive tariffs again in future.

And even the Tories would act to force price caps in the event of piss taking because it would win them some votes.

The week ahead, very cold temperatures with very little wind, could be a good test for the coming months. Got a good stock of candles in for the winter?

[cynic/] Shareholders are the main priority for the energy companies, whilst they're getting bumper payouts they're happy. [/cynic]

This does raise the question whether the utility companies should be nationalised, they provide a service that the majority of people require.

What won't come down is the prices of goods driven up by energy costs, even if those energy costs reduce.

Diesel/petrol seems to heading downwards but with massive variations. between devon/bristol yesterday I saw a range between 169.9/l and 195.9/l.

I'd hidden my new smart meter control, I think I'd rather not look at it.

One would hope that the competition would make the prices fair but even now with a cap on what OPEC countries are allowed to pay for Russian gas they are saying it will cause the prices elsewhere to go up. I don't know how far in advance they buy it but, as with the current price hikes, the instant the advance price goes up the retail cost goes up even though they have a buffer. Just as I suspect it will stay high once the price comes down.

What won’t come down is the prices of goods driven up by energy costs, even if those energy costs reduce.

This also - although I can tolerate that somewhat as it seems more diluted and there is much more of a choice around what you buy. Obviously food etc is essential but again you can grow some of your own, cut back on meat etc and get the costs down.

My energy usage has probably halved with efficiencies made by us as a family (I'm going to do some comparisons when I get some time) and yet it's still costing £450 - £550 per month (even £600 is a possibility if it's properly cold outside) if I want a warm house.

People will die because of it, directly and indirectly, of that I have no doubt.

I do keep having to remind myself that at least we are not in Ukraine and the cynic in me says that the policymakers know this is what a lot of people will be thinking which is why they think they will get away with it. 🙄

Crude Oil is as the same price it was February, but you’re seeing the profiteering happening right at the pumps. And it’s on the rise again, so expect those profits prices to rise.

Government bailouts and loans for energy suppliers need to be paid back, expect it to stay quite high for some time. We know we have rises coming in April and I think October ‘23 was predicted for a slight fall, so expect Winter 23/24 to be roughly the same as it is now.

So in short no, not for a couple of years at least.

Yes, but not for ages and not till the market fundamentals change. Competition between UK sellers isn't going to do jack to the market, and not really affect consumer prices as Europe needs to swing away from relying on Russian gas to renewables with a backup, and that's not a 10 minute project, and much bigger than the UK market, and outside of it's control.
You also need to separate what the 'energy market' is - petrol prices are in an entirely different place profit wise compared to electricity generators. Shells profits are not directly linked to the cost of leccy.

Renewables with backup is not the answer to lower cost

https://watt-logic.com/2022/04/11/cost-of-renewables/

Renewables with backup is not the answer to lower cost

That blog seems to take a fairly anti renewable stance from the start, so I wouldn't pay it too much heed.

That blogger ---^

"Kathryn Porter - Energy Consultant - Watt-Logic - LinkedIn
https://uk.linkedin.com › kathrynporter26
Specific experience in the utilities, oil and gas sectors"

"For business consumers the green levies should be deferred..."

Also to be found chewing the fat with Nigel Farage on GBNews.

Funny how renewables are the answer and the likelihood of power cuts goes up every time the wind drops.

Wind is not the only renewable possible.

Personally ( even tho energy costs are by far my biggest outgoing maybe 30%of my income this winter) I hope not.  the only hope for the planet is that we all use a lot less energy.  I'd rather the price rises were done in a controlled manner with decent mitigation for low paid / rural folk but if high prices lead to a drop in energy useage its all golden to me

Looks like while down from the recent spike gas prices are still 4 or 5 times what they were a year ago. Due to the way UK electricity market works most producers get the high prices not what it costs them to produce.

https://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/wholesale-gas-prices/

@tjagain

High prices mean deaths among the poor who can't afford to heat their homes.

Golden?

Funny how renewables are the answer and the likelihood of power cuts goes up every time the wind drops.

Yeah! Damn those wind powered solar panels! Renewables are *definitely* the reason why there might be power cuts this winter.

I live in a rural area with no mains gas, spoken to so many local elderly who simply cannot afford to buy heating oil, we have set up a village buying group to try and bring prices down and assist and we are trying to set up assistance where people aren't alone in cold houses for xmas especially. But many, elderly especially, are struggling to understand how they access grants and payment assistance from Government without help.

Ridiculous when we overlook huge windfarms off shore and as an area we produce more renewable power than we actually use ands we had to put up with road closure after road closure as they ran the cables onshore to power station.

What hacks me off is the fact that we are £582 in credit with electricity company and they won't let us put monthly payment down..

My energy usage has probably halved with efficiencies made by us as a family

Why did a price rise lead you to make these efficiencies but impending climate catastrophe didn't?
.
That might sound a bit glib, but a lot of people are finally changing their behaviour because of the financial costs, rather than because it was the right thing to do. Why is that such a motivator when climate change isn't?

Why is that such a motivator when climate change isn’t?

because when it comes to it, most people don't care all that much. See also: cars that do <30mpg, flying your bike to the alps, upgrading your phone/telly/etc every year, blah blah. The impending apocalypse is someone else's problem. But bills? They're MY problem

Renewables pan out cheap as your operating expenditure is so low. As a constant expense wind is a lot cheaper than coal or gas. And opex is by far the biggest factor in what makes an energy source commercial or not

That might sound a bit glib, but a lot of people are finally changing their behaviour because of the financial costs, rather than because it was the right thing to do. Why is that such a motivator when climate change isn’t?

I presume that's a rhetorical question?

You've already answered it.

I think OPEC are aiming for 90$ a barrel so petrol/ diesel will not drop. Electric might in the medium term but I have my doubts. As above secondary high energy products will remain high as there is interdependence (i.e a chicken egg situation for many cross industry relationships)that not just energy has to drop for thier prices to drop. Food will stay high as farming is heavily energy dependant and labour dependant.

That my worthless opinion.

What hacks me off is the fact that we are £582 in credit with electricity company

like it or not, they are simply taking advantage of the fact that you dont trust yourself to budget for higher consumption during the winter, but that probably needs a thread of its own, apols.

Why is that such a motivator when climate change isn’t?

Human nature innit. The only way you can really change (most) people's approach/outlook is to make a very real impact on their lives, and that usually needs to be financial.

Is the cost of fuel/energy actually going to come down?

My feeling is that it will eventually come down in relative terms, but in real terms we won't see any significant drops. I think that inflation (domestic and external) will continue into the medium term, with wages eventually catching up (after a fairly painful time for most of us). I can't imagine petrol ever getting close to £1 per litre again so no reason utility prices will drop back to where they were, especially when you have cartels controlling the prices.

Funny how renewables are the answer and the likelihood of power cuts goes up every time the wind drops.

Funny how that's down to gas supplies we've run out of, but you're blaming the wind?

IRC

Perhaps the whole quote?

I’d rather the price rises were done in a controlled manner with decent mitigation for low paid / rural folk but if high prices lead to a drop in energy useage its all golden to me

No idea if price will come down, but I have a suspicion that as soon as the 30p government rebate is removed next April we are likely to see a similar drop in energy prices (assuming base price of energy doesn't spike again for some reason).

Or am I being cycnical?

Petrol is actually fairly cheap in real terms. Taking into account inflation it hasn't risen in price in real terms in around a decade. There is talk of a duty hike next year though.

Domestic energy wise, I can't see how the price can naturally fall again in the short to medium term with the move towards reliance on imported LNG from the USA and the fact new nuclear isn't going to be ready to generate for around another decade yet. Even with the new reactors online, the prices for generation being agreed with the owners are astronomically high. I still believe nuclear is the answer for now though.

@oceanskipper

I think we’re stuck with these ridiculous prices. I can’t see the energy companies dropping their prices when there’s oodles of cash to be made by keeping them high even if the wholesale price comes down.

There will be more increases to come. We are in for a rough ride for many years to come.

The elephant is in the room with the Ukraine/Russia war. The energy companies are all rubbing their hands with glee when the day the sanctions were announced on Russia. They and their shareholders knew they would all be getting bumper bonus for many years to come until such time as the sanctions are lifted. Someone somewhere is going to get extremely rich in the next few years.

The rest of the contributing reasons are really insignificance or pale by comparison to the 1/3 world energy shortage coming from Russia.

When people are hungry and cold the govt will fall. Fact.

It is scary even with the £66 subsidy from the govt I am still paying almost double my energy bill by comparison to before the sanctions. When the subsidy is taken away then the cost will bite for many people.

... in the short to medium term with the move towards reliance on imported LNG from the USA and the fact new nuclear isn’t going to be ready to generate for around another decade yet

The increase supply from USA is just a drop in the ocean and will harm their own industry and their shareholders are not gong to like it.

Cornwall Insight, who are oft quoted by the Media when showing forecasts for future energy prices are currently predicting the following OFGEM dual-fuel price cap figures for 2023 (note these are the 'average' households annual estimate):

Q1 = £4,279 (actual OFGEM cap, but reduced to £2,500 by Governments 'Energy Price Guarantee')
Q2 = £3,702 (but capped at £3,000 by Governments 'Energy Price Guarantee')
Q3 = £3,157 (but capped at £3,000 by Governments 'Energy Price Guarantee')
Q4 = £3,182 (but capped at £3,000 by Governments 'Energy Price Guarantee')

Energy prices are falling, but not below the EPG and due and its increase there will still be a further rise on 1 April 2023. So, no. We won't see our domestic energy bills fall at all in 2023, they will go up another 20%!

Even at an indivudual level, you can make your own house off-grid capable just with solar, batteris, insulation and efficient heating so I'm not sure I buy this argument that "renewables aren't the answer".

And that doesn't include tidal, wind and the economies of scale if this wasn't done on a indivudual basis.

I chatted to a colleague in Edmonton in Canada yesterday. He was heating his house with liquid propane and he said he paid $700 for a year's worth. Canadian dollars. Thinking back, I'm wondering if I mis-heard because that's staggeringly cheap.

you can make your own house off-grid capable just with solar, batteris, insulation and efficient heating

If you have the money to invest up-front. I don't, and yet I'm not poor.

The government could lend you the money to become self sufficient though, and you repay that instead of paying a gas bill. That would be awesome. Transferrable to the next owner when you move.

When people are hungry and cold the govt will fall. Fact.

A lot of people are hungry - but far more are cold, going by my Facebook feed. People who were managing ok - with two civil service incomes in the household - are hardly heating their houses at all, sitting around in 12C or less.

My energy usage has probably halved with efficiencies made by us as a family

Why did a price rise lead you to make these efficiencies but impending climate catastrophe didn’t?

Perhaps efficiencies was the wrong word, cutbacks is probably more accurate ie we are not showering as often, living in a much colder house etc, we have always tried to be efficient by only putting the required amount of water in the kettle, switching things off etc. as we are definitely concerned about climate change. I’d happily live off renewable energy if it was affordable to install.

chatted to a colleague in Edmonton in Canada yesterday. He was heating his house with liquid propane and he said he paid $700 for a year’s worth. Canadian dollars.

Depends on your insulation levels to a huge extent.  Having insulated my rental flat as well as I could without spending stupid amounts heating it will be less than a couple of hundred pounds a year ( including hot water).  Yes it gets gain from the building below it but its only got old DG veluxes

I suspect they will stay high for the following reasons

Firstly the energy market is priced in USD and for as long as sterling carries on dropping in value it will provide a good excuse for energy companies

Secondly its in the energy companies best interests to keep prices as high as they can for as long as they can and will use USD, Ukraine, anything else they can think of to justify it

Finally we are still dependent on oil and gas and will be for a long time. Renewables will take over eventually once they have figured out how to make cost effective and efficient batteries to store surplus power to smooth out the inevitable fluctuations with renewables. Whether these batteries are water, sand or other materials they are sill being researched.

A lot of people are hungry – but far more are cold, going by my Facebook feed. People who were managing ok – with two civil service incomes in the household – are hardly heating their houses at all, sitting around in 12C or less.

Sounds like people are doing fine with those incomes.

Back to car fuel for a mo. My nearest is Asda, 182.7 diesel 158.7 petrol. Costco (20 miles away) has diesel 169.9, petrol 145.9. About a nine quid difference to fill the SMax (which I can't do at Asda any more since it only allows £99 per transaction).

@chrismac

Renewables will take over eventually once they have figured out how to make cost effective and efficient batteries to store surplus power to smooth out the inevitable fluctuations with renewables. Whether these batteries are water, sand or other materials they are sill being researched.

Not the long term answer and not terribly scalable, but I did some work a while back on an EC project that looked at how used EV batteries (from Nissan and Renault, from memory) could be reused for two things: Datacentre power backup and neighbourhood renewable energy storage. Most of these packs get ripped and replaced when they fall below a certain output that makes them efficient for Nissan Leafs - but they still have a lot of life left in them. This allows a longer life for EV batteries before they have to be reprocessed, as space and weight aren't such a big issue if they're stored in a shed. That said, it's not a terribly long term or efficient solution at a grid level.

Sounds like people are doing fine with those incomes.

i dont et that.

With regards to fuel, i.e. petrol. I imagine that if the war goes on then we will see steady increases next year.  I think germany etc used to utilse a lot of diesel from russia so the thinking is that with this supply eliminated then the prices would increase dramatically. Now there is the 60dollar price cap im not sure how this pans out.

Why did a price rise lead you to make these efficiencies, but impending climate catastrophe didn’t?
.
That might sound a bit glib, but a lot of people are finally changing their behaviour because of the financial costs, rather than because it was the right thing to do. Why is that such a motivator when climate change isn’t?

It's a fair point, but let's be honest, rightly or wrongly, people still find climate change a bit of an "intangible" whereas they very quickly notice prices going up and bank balances going down.

I guess the question is do motives really matter if consumption and resultant pollution reduces? - Discuss...

Even at an individual level, you can make your own house off-grid capable just with solar, batteries, insulation and efficient heating so I’m not sure I buy this argument that “renewables aren’t the answer”.

And that doesn’t include tidal, wind and the economies of scale if this wasn’t done on a individual basis.

Yeah I don't fully buy the "individual choices" thing TBH, it assumes financial resources and agency that the majority really don't have.

We could all do lots of things differently with 20/20 hindsight and/or more disposable funds, but lets be honest fronting the money or taking out substantial loans just to circumvent extant energy infrastructure isn't within everyone's reach is it? and it's not being made any easier currently (that I'm aware of).

Accessing renewables is fast becoming the preserve of top 5%ers. Just another thing to measure the wealth gap without actually managing to close it.
Those with enough hoarded wealth to throw £15-20k at bonus insulation, a solar array and sufficient battery storage will be able to buy themself some extra "energy security" and lower their bills in the long term, but the rest of us remain stuck with whatever energy infrastructure is commercially available, it's not individual choice it's Hobson's choice.

I've mentioned before that I've seen Solar PV farms popping up as the local landed gentry would rather farm (subsidised?) leccy than edible crops. you mentioned Tidal and Wind generation schemes, almost all are commercial, so the real meaty opportunities for "Free" energy are getting hoovered up by those with a financial head start again.

The thing holding the majority back from embracing renewables individually and collectively isn't a lack of will, it's good old fashioned capitalism.

Telling people it's all within their control is a wee bit Marie-Antoinette-ish

Difficult one. Quite frankly no-one has a clue what's going to happen going forwards. Trying to forecast prices for next year with changing tax conditions is impossible, let alone beyond 2025 when trying to work out whether projects will fly or not. I'd certainly be pointing some scrutiny at those in Westminster though, worth noting that fuel prices today are higher than in 2013 despite the oil price being and the refining margins that companies are getting are lower too.

'Some' energy companies are making a killing, but they usually have a full cycle business that includes refining and wholesale including energy (e.g. Shell). The majority of UK producers are hedged following the downturn, often at <$65 bbl so are actually losing money at the moment. Those who are making a killing is the traders in the city, as usual.

Yet again, the government stitched everyone up with not investing in gas storage despite the industry warning it for the past 10 years and more. Now it's a day late and a several million $ short, and we have enough for 48hours UK generation Compared to Austria's several months, that's just laughable.

Renewables are great, but it takes time, raw materials and energy to make them in the first place. They're not a quick or easy fix. Contrary to the media's narrative, oil is needed to make things out of rather than just petrol, and if the price of that is high/supply is short, then goods are going to go up in price too - including renewable tech.

Fundamentally, todays issues are a result of 40 years of society being drunk on cheap energy without a seconds thought on the consequences. The answer needs people, politicians etc to stop demonizing one source of energy or the other and realize a mix of all is required, with changes to planning and the end of NIMBYism. Gas fire power when demand peaks, wind/nuclear for base load, solar at household level, proper insulation, end of the ridiculous ban on double glazing in conservation areas. All of which costs money which we've pissed up the wall/given to the mistresses PPE company etc.

Proper green energy storage - Use wind to pump water uphill and then release it down again when the wind stops. But noone wants dams on their rivers, they'd rather let Elon dig up the Atacama and mine cobalt using children in the Congo to make batteries than have the solution visible from their second home.

Now there is the 60dollar price cap im not sure how this pans out.

The price cap is to prevent Russia making money out of their gas. The cap is not what everyone has to sell at, it’s what Russia has to sell at if they want anyone to buy it. The cap says if you are a OPEC country you cannot but gas from Russia unless it’s less than $60.  Russia won’t sell at that price so all the other suppliers increase their prices as the demand goes up. Yet more pain for the consumer and yet more profit for the suppliers….

The cynic in me feels like that we're going to be lumbered with this squeeze. We all know that the energy companies have been making massive profits so they'll be using every single trick in the book to keep it going as long as possible. Why wouldn't you frankly?

The result of this greed will do nothing but cause harm to the people. I think there is a strong case now for services to be state funded again (and there has for a long time!), the railways for sure (£180 one way to get from Surrey to Manchester is insane!) and the energy sector should be.

There still has been very little real mention of developing the nuclear power sector - this should have been developed 50 years ago. Like i seem to say in most of posts these days that short term bad political decisions are now coming home to roost and we have a government who do not possess the skills to get us out of this hole.

@bentudder

Not the long term answer and not terribly scalable, but I did some work a while back on an EC project that looked at how used EV batteries (from Nissan and Renault, from memory) could be reused for two things: Datacentre power backup and neighbourhood renewable energy storage. Most of these packs get ripped and replaced when they fall below a certain output that makes them efficient for Nissan Leafs – but they still have a lot of life left in them. This allows a longer life for EV batteries before they have to be reprocessed, as space and weight aren’t such a big issue if they’re stored in a shed. That said, it’s not a terribly long term or efficient solution at a grid level.

Its a start. My wife works at a university helping the engineering school get funding grants for research, there is a lot of money being spent on research to figure out how to do the storage part

Petrol £1.44 Jet near Nantwich this afternoon

Accessing renewables is fast becoming the preserve of top 5%ers. Just another thing to measure the wealth gap without actually managing to close it.
Those with enough hoarded wealth to throw £15-20k at bonus insulation, a solar array and sufficient battery storage will be able to buy themself some extra “energy security” and lower their bills in the long term, but the rest of us remain stuck with whatever energy infrastructure is commercially available, it’s not individual choice it’s Hobson’s choice.

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

*It’s not a true fix as winter will still need some support.

The same economics were true for the early days of EVs.

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

So we're back to the idea that it's only accessible to people that can get a ~£20k loan. I.e. the point you were supposedly arguing against.

It's also inefficient. Better to put a levy on bills and build national infrastructure that can do it in bulk far more effectively. But people* complained as it was a £150** "tax".

* let's be honest, people probably didn't even know about it, they were told they hated it by think tanks and the press.
** average

This is twaddle. IF solar and renewables can BUY energy security then anyone with access to some form of finance can take advantage of it, thus fixing* their outgoings at the repayment price of the loan.

I would challenge you to show me the calculations that suggest this is not going to work out more expensive. And in any case  why would/should anyone risk having to borrow money - no doubt at an interest rate -  in order to fund this? It’s an additional worry that most could do without.

Government backed incentive - yes. Borrowing off the bank - it’s a no from me.

Those with enough hoarded wealth to throw £15-20k at bonus insulation, a solar array and sufficient battery storage will be able to buy themself some extra “energy security” and lower their bills in the long term, but the rest of us remain stuck with whatever energy infrastructure is commercially available, it’s not individual choice it’s Hobson’s choice.

Well we managed 1.2 kWh of solar power today! Bugger all over the WE at it was too cloudy. You'd need a lot of roof space for enough panels to be self sufficient in solar on a murky December day.....

'from Russia unless it’s less than $60. Russia won’t sell at that price ' Most Russian oil is selling about 52, 53 dollars so the cap is symbolic rather than effective. It's pretty cheap as transporting it is a big hassle/cost to the buyer

Most Russian oil is selling about 52, 53 dollars so the cap is symbolic rather than effective.

🙄 except we can’t buy it at that price as we’re an OPEC  country - great! It’s as if there are some people in charge making billions out of every one else’s misery. Surely not?

So we’re back to the idea that it’s only accessible to people that can get a ~£20k loan

On one level, it’s a good idea. It’s a, say, ten year fix on the bulk of your energy costs. And after that loan is repayed, very cheap energy.
Interest rates are another kettle of fish but it seems like a fairly simple calculation to loan someone money with repayments equivalent to the utility bill they would subsequently not be paying, knowing the anticipated output of the installed renewable energy.

But really, it’s something available to home owners (or rather house owners) and not to anyone else.
How much extra would a landlord want to charge for a solar powered home?
How does a block of flats divvy up their roof space and power usage?

'except we can’t buy it at that price as we’re an OPEC country ' The UK isn't in OPEC or OPEC+- . The UK buys and sells on the open market. OPEC doesn't directly control cost anyway, it's notches supply up and down, indirectly mucking around with the price. We could buy at 60 IF it was worth 60, and anyway Russia say they won't sell to countries who've signed ot the cap.

Oil isn't all one price. A nice barrel of N Sea light crude is worth a lot more than a barrel of sticky junk in the middle of Siberia with no pipeline and only rattly trains to transport it. Transport costs tend to be the buyers problem

If the rates don't drop, then there is going to be a hell of a lot of folk in debt/trouble come each winter. It's 'all right' for us lot with our fancy bikes etc to say we've had it (energy) too cheap - many people can't afford it - what do we do about that ?

The UK isn’t in OPEC or OPEC+

Well you learn something new every day - I'm guessing we signed up to the cap though - just so we can still be charged huge amounts for energy.

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

Indeed - I've got no idea but it can't go on for years surely... can it...?

I can't see the numbers adding up for solar battery.

A quick quote for a £20k loan over 10 yea.rs gave me just under £30k payback over 10 year.

At current high prices our electricity is around £1000 a year.

I don't think it would cover all my usage from Nov to Jan

So payback in excess of 30 years. More if it needs any maintenance or repairs in that time.

If prices go back down pay ack time goes up

Yes, and you can't move house during that period.

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

this worries me greatly. I have a job etc. Im worrying about getting through winter. How the hell are people on lower incomes / more outgoing etc going to afford this. Its generally scary / worrying.

Indeed. We are both working professionals. We are feeling it, but are adjusting/coping. I can only imagine. My mum lives by herself in a small modern 2 bed terrace in my village. It has a Hive system fitted by the previous owner, so I've helped her tweak it to cut costs.

[cynic/] Shareholders are the main priority for the energy companies, whilst they’re getting bumper payouts they’re happy. [/cynic]

of course, we shouldn't forget that most of us are indirectly shareholders through our pensions.  It's a bit convoluted but knee jerk ideas like just nationalising stuff that seems to be profitable aren't necessarily the best way to look after today's pensioners or those trying to grow a pension fund to retire on in the future.

A lot of people are hungry – but far more are cold, going by my Facebook feed. People who were managing ok – with two civil service incomes in the household – are hardly heating their houses at all, sitting around in 12C or less.

Molgrips - I am sure that there are people who are really struggling.  I'm sure that there are people who will die as a fairly direct result of the cost of energy this year (either through hypothermia, illness caught in cold damp houses or mental health issues aggravated by money).  I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity - lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Whilst I think we do need price caps, and regulation to protect the most vulnerable* - what we have now is a situation where people are starting to think about energy use and where power (political and energy) comes from - so actually I'd be open to discussions about how you wean people off price caps, and pay them more in the first place if necessary.  I've noticed lots of places are not talking about % rises but fixed increases for everyone - lifting up the lowest paid.   Proper competition in the market at the true cost of production should encourage alternative energy sources but also innovative pricing like the EV tariffs that discount at night (hardly a new idea people have had different meters/bills for different times as long as I've been alive - but smart meters and the right tech allow this to be managed much more granularly), but also potentially stuff like district heating etc.

*our energy pricing has never been structured to do that.  We charge you more if you are on a prepayment meter than if you are a good financial risk, and we give discounts to people who have bank accounts and can afford to spread cost equally each month.

many people can’t afford it – what do we do about that ?

Pretty easy for the government to sort it out, I'd have thought. They just haven't got much idea how to do it and they don't care to find out. All they are doing is just handing money directly to energy companies who are already rich.

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Hmm, this does rather sound like poor people aren't allowed inexpensive comforts. And let's face it - driving a mile to the shops costs virtually nothing when you need to own a car to get from the place you can afford to live to the place where you work. A takeaway a month could cost £15 for two, which is a different proposition to £400 of gas in a badly insulated damp old house that's all you can afford to rent.

You are right in that it is forcing people to think about energy usage, which is good, but it's affecting the poor far more than the affluent. If you want to reduce CO2 emissions from domestic fuel usage this is one of the worst ways to go about it.

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

Self selecting sample, they can't complain on your facebook feed unless they've got broadband and/or a phone contract.

lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun

non HD netflix is £6.99 apparently
my phone contract is £12. Try existing in the modern world without one - see stevextc's recent tribulations regarding giving it up (for non financial reasons)
the car that I already own, tax, insure to enable me to work costs ~12p/mile to fuel. and I'll be buying more than I can carry.

I would however say that from those I encounter complaining most vocally about the cost of heating / electricity – lots are still managing to pay their phone contract, drive a mile to the shops, watch stuff on Netflix, and order takeaway food whilst discussing how they really need a holiday in the sun to get away from the cold in the UK and our ridiculous prices.

I'm not sure what your point is - are you saying if have Netflix/phone/car then you aren't allowed to complain about energy costs. Why not? People can complain about anything that annoys them surely..🤷‍♂️

The price cap could easily be tweaked. For example I have read (can't find the link now) that the govt is considering limiting the price cap to a certain amount of energy. So use average or less you pay price cap rates. Use more you pay market price on anyting over the limit.

This would cut the cost of the scheme while still supporting average and lower users and encouraging higher users to cut back.

A phone is the cheapest way to stay connected with the modern world - a lot of people I know only have a phone, they can't afford computers, broadband or a landline.

And Netflix at a tenner a month or whatever it is is by far the cheapest entertainment around. Staying in with a beer and a snack from the supermarket is about as cheap as it gets and costs far less than any night out. It's also cheaper than buying books to read all evening - a paperback a week for two people costs much more. So all these complaints about people paying for Netflix are really just criticising people for being extremely economical. Unless you think entertainment is unimportant, or poor people aren't entitled to it?

a paperback a week for two people costs much more.

a) there's these things called libraries...
b) there's these things called kindles...
c) there's this app called "kindle"...

its all whizzing in the wind though, compared to some number of hundreds of pounds to avoid black mould and hypothermia.

b) there’s these things called kindles…
c) there’s this app called “kindle”…

None of which would work without phone/broadband/contract.

Although as pointed out, at what level of poverty do you judge someone to be not-frivalous?

Can't heat your house? Still eating beans on toast? Should be eating gruel, vegan protein powder* and vitamin pills to save those last few pence.

Agree with your conclusion though, it's a drop in the ocean compared to the issue.

*Whey's cheaper and more disgusting cousin.

Back to car fuel for a mo. My nearest is Asda, 182.7 diesel 158.7 petrol. Costco (20 miles away) has diesel 169.9, petrol 145.9.

Average petrol around me is about 157.9, maybe a bit cheaper, perhaps 156.9, but I fill up In Melksham at Sainsbury’s, and last time I filled up about a week and a half ago petrol was 147.9. I don’t make a special effort, I drive past Melksham for work, so I usually fill up on my way home, or if I’m on my off-work shift, I fill up on my way into Melksham when I go to the pub.

I think OPEC are aiming for 90$ a barrel so petrol/ diesel will not drop.

Pretty sure crude has been around that price plenty of times in the past, but petrol and diesel have been significantly cheaper than they are now. Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m sure it has.

we shouldn’t forget that most of us are indirectly shareholders through our pensions.

I would imagine most who can't pay for gas and electricity are not paying into a penaion

Pretty sure crude has been around that price plenty of times in the past, but petrol and diesel have been significantly cheaper than they are now. Happy to be proven wrong, but I’m sure it has.

I think you’re right and that’s my worry - now they know people will pay current prices they won’t put the price down for any energy, petrol, diesel, gas, whatever. It’s outrageous really.

I last ordered heating oil in September 2021 and paod 41p/l. At that time Brent crude was approx 73$/barrel.
Today, Brent is 'down' at $76, yet they are quoting 79p/l for heating oil.
I don't know how long the lag is between oil price changing and that filtering through to heating oil prices, however the price of crude has been dropping slowly for a month now.

Last sept, £1 was $1.37, today it is $1.22. A 10% difference. In no way does that account for the price difference for heating oil (or petrol/diesel).

Big business is taking the piss out of us. It is disgusting.

@guest1 - You've still got the lingering effects of the Pandemic in that September 2021 pricing, also, energy prices are higher, which means refining is 3-4 times more expensive than it was in Sept21, finally the £>$ is around 15% less than it was in Sept21. It's not really an apples to apples comparison.

Going for the obvious:

Renewables will take over eventually once they have figured out how to massively profit from them.cost effective and efficient batteries to store surplus power to smooth out the inevitable fluctuations with renewables.

Hmm, this does rather sound like poor people aren’t allowed inexpensive comforts.

Maybe. I read it more as these aren't the first people we should be worrying about. I'm not the amongst the poorest in society. I can keep going with a take away or two a month, prime, mobile (giff gaff £6!), fttp. Except.. the holiday bit, and the second car to get me to work (I've cycle commuted for 10+ years). But overall I can still afford a few niceties.

There's a bottleneck for shipping leaving the Black Sea currently
Turkiye wants to ensure that each load is insured to protect them against the costs of an oil spillage on their territory
The insurers can only insure Russian oil cargoes that are priced under the G7 cap, so they won't release insurance details just in case they're not (if we don't admit that we've insured it then we can't be sanctioned later)
Other cargoes, including oil from other countries, are stuck in the queue

As someone commented ^^ Russian oil is cheaper anyway and currently sells below the G7 cap, which some countries wanted to set much lower. The lower cap was argued against because Russia might refuse to sell and oil would become scarcer and so more expensive