You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
i know, i know... there's the other thread, but all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others.
reason is, i'm worried. still waiting on thee results of the German citizenship language test and time is running down. if i don't hand in my paperwork before 29th March then i would have to give up my British citizenship if given the offer of being German.
it's hard to tell with things i read in the media what the outcome will be.
want to share your thoughts?
Yes
No. (I think remain is inevitable.)
couldn't care less.
At the moment I would say yes. But in 2 days time that might be the complete opposite.
Never has the saying a week is a long time in politics been more apt.
couldn’t care less.
Why not?
The biggest political decision in our lifetime?
no its definitely not inevitable, but there is a chance no deal will happen. My gut feel is the most likely outcome is a variation of mays deal will get approved at the last second.
Look to the foreign currency market for a steer on what the traders think will happen, pound strengthening against euro = higher chance of Mays deal or cancel brexit, pound weakening = higher chance of no deal.
basically its a ruse.
It was never going to happen. The vote was just a smokescreen. They will now fall back on a referendum and people will vote to stay.
Situation is too confused to predict.
Wouldnt be surprised with No deal/referendum/Mays deal/just give up and remain.
maybe
No
I don't believe that the politicians will let that happen.
I suspect, that the current "Mrs May" deal, with only very minor tweaks, if any will get put to the vote at the last minute, and despite the message "not running down the clock" that is exactly what it will be, and PM's will either have to choose to reject it and have no deal, or accept it.
I think they will accept it.
Haven’t a clue.
Which is what terrifies me.
I think they will accept it.
Agreed. Which moves the threat of "no deal" from March this year to, what, 2021 ? Plenty of time for companies to reorganise and get the hell out of the political mess that is the UK.
[dupe thread?]
Inevitable? No. Likely? Not sure. Possible? Definitely.
Looks like it to me.
No.
My 2p.
Very few people actually want 'No Deal' only the real nutters and the JRBs of the world who'll short Sterling and make billions.
Everyone knows Brexit is bad for the UK, a few pretend it won't be because it will make them rich or they're so xenophobic they'll accept it for a sense of control of 'their' borders.
With every passing poll, they swing more towards 'remain', but it's still surprisingly close and polls suggested remain would win the referendum so it's not done deal.
I believe May's Plan is to run the clock down to the last possible moment, then at the 11th hour present the house with 'it's my Deal or No Deal' hoping they'll blink first - vote for her deal (which the EU still hasn't accepted) and she's delivered Brexit in a form that probably the most palatable, but almost ironically the most stupid - we keep all the benefits of membership, but waive any and all control over it's future direction, but hey - where can Farage and the ERG go then when we've left?
I believe the Remainer plan is similar, run the clock down - even now MPs and the Government are talking about extensions - the EU has very categorically said that they won't allow any extensions for further negotiations as they believe they are over - they will however allow an extension if it allows for a meaningful change of position, in other words - "you can have an extension, if it comes with a second vote". May may well go for this, because then she didn't fail to deliver Brexit, hardcore Brexiteers can blame the EU, as they always will anyway. UKIP is dead and the public won't want to go through this bullshit again, not for a very, very long time.
I'm starting to think it is, for it not to be it will take the staunchly pro-Brexit Tories to blink first and admit to it not being a good bargaining chip to leave on the table as it hurts the UK more than the EU. Given no deal is what will happen unless they do blink then I'd now say it's more likely than not to happen.
Jeremy will save us.. not sure how... but it will involve a few marrows, a bit of mumbling, a spade and a threat to destroy Northern Ireland with nukes before he scraps them.
Yes!
Appart from the possibility of No...
*Nobody knows.
no one knows
including these companies
Sony
Nissan
Dyson
Panasonic
Lloyds
Unilever
Goldman Sachs
Barclays
Airbus
Flybmi
P&O
HSBC
JP Morgan
UBS
Ford
Hitachi
Toshiba
AXA
Honda
Moneygram
Philips
European Banking Authority
European Medicines Agency
Bank of America
We bought 3 months of cat food the other day, just in case. Can't see them prioritising kibble when the food riots start...
I now think it is the most likely option. There is no leadership for remain.
What MSP said, remain has no viable leadership.
I’m starting to think it is, for it not to be it will take the staunchly pro-Brexit Tories to blink first and admit to it not being a good bargaining chip to leave on the table as it hurts the UK more than the EU. Given no deal is what will happen unless they do blink then I’d now say it’s more likely than not to happen.
They're a pain the arse for May for sure, but whilst there's maybe 90 Tory MPs who are completely for Leave, but they're very much in the 'Deal' Group. There's only 10 or so real ****s who form the ERG, but some of them want a deal, they wave around 'No Deal' because they know it would hurt the EU (not nearly as much as us of course) it's the 'bite your nose off' bargaining chip.
Corbyn is certainly a Leaver, he voted against the UK joining the EEC in 75, Voted against the Maastricht Treaty in 93, opposed the Lison Treaty in 2008 and back a referendum to withdraw from the EU in 2011, but I don't think he has as much control of his MPs as he would like (total). I think of all the main players, he'd be the most 'no deal' as it would align with his goals of a devalued £ and mass employment, making plastic dog shits for China I suppose.
It's the most likely outcome.
The ERG don't need to win anything, all they need to do is prevent anyone else winning, and then they get nodeal by default.
My current estimate is 60% no deal, 40% long extension of a year followed by either Norway or remain.
Whatever your position on Brexit, it is surely ridiculous that the government (including MP's of all parties here), seem unable to manage an orderly withdrawal from the EU. 40 years of integration will not be undone literally overnight without significant damage to the economy.
I'm about 50/50 at this point because May is and will put the good of the Tory Party before the good of the country. At the same time Corbyn just wants to get elected, he may be left in charge of a dumpster fire, but he doesn't seem bothered.
So, on balance, it is entirely probable we are ****ed.
No it’s not inevitable. The EU is also playing a strategy which includes running the clock down. They are not engaging with uk companies and institutions who are preparing for no deal because they’re playing the hard ball negotiating tactic. It’ll all get agreed in the final seconds. It was never going to be any other way. This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.
Whatever your position on Brexit, it is surely ridiculous that the government (including MP’s of all parties here), seem unable to manage an orderly withdrawal from the EU. 40 years of integration will not be undone literally overnight without significant damage to the economy.
It was inevitable given the way we did it - arse about face.
It was akin to running a referendum on leaving the Earth to live on Mars before you work out how to do it, and then letting the team who want to leave Earth promise everything and anything they want to about how easy it was and how great Mars was to live on, and then making everyone else work out how to do it.
The ridiculous part for me is that 2 and a bit years later, less than 40 days before take-off, even though we now all know we've been lied to and it's going to be terrible, we're still arguing over rocket design.
but if a deal is done
Hasn't a deal already been done?
This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.
so you are saying they always agree a deal at the last minute, but that theyve never agreed a deal at the last minute?
the reality is that they didnt blink on TTIP, they pulled it rather than compromise, they didnt blink on CETA, true at the last minute they let Greece off a tonne of debt, but that was to let them stay within the EU without going bust, arent we the opposite of that?
just sounds like delusions of grandeur that somehow if we keep the gun pointed to our head at the last minute the EU will fold because were so great?
David Davis used it as an excuse to justify achieving nothing as Brexit Secretary & of course industry will have to trigger its no deal contingencies before the last minute,as we are already seeing- Its a self-defeating tactic of epic idiocy & arrogance
That's another thing that seems to have been lost in a lot of the coverage. March 29th is the start of a transition period. The 'deal' outlines whatever help the EU will help with vs what we have to do to get that help. No deal is us sticking two fingers up to any help with the process. Even if we get a deal, that's for a finite amount of time, at the end of which the EU will stop helping and whatever the cretins in power (Tories don't have to call another election for 3 years yet, quite clever to call it when they did IMO, even though they had a scare just scraping through) have negotiated with the rest of the world, will start with no option to (quickly) come back in to the EU if we've got sweet Fanny Adams, or worse, been bent over by economies, that didn't vote to ruin themselves before entering into negotiations, that know we are desperate for any trade deal.
Whats that Mr Bigamericancorp? You want to undercut all our locally produced stuff, and all we have to give in return is let you take over the NHS, saving the govt billions? Now that's a deal I can get behind! where do I sign'
The ridiculous part for me is that 2 and a bit years later, less than 40 days before take-off, even though we now all know we’ve been lied to and it’s going to be terrible, we’re still arguing over rocket design.
Is a rather great analogy
We'll slide inexorably towards a no deal because its the only thing no one needs to agree on for it to happen anyway
Do you want to be German or not?
Follow your answer.
basically its a ruse.
It was never going to happen. The vote was just a smokescreen. They will now fall back on a referendum and people will vote to stay.
I and many I've spoken to believe this, possibly even without the referendum. M
Tricky question.
I think No Deal is currently slight favourite as the ERG headbangers (and Jezza Corbyn) can stop May getting her deal through parliament. I believe that if a deal hasn't been agreed by 29th March, then No Deal is the default position.
However, anything could change. May could ceed more concessions to the ERG headbangers, giving them more of what they want. Then they might vote Mays deal through.
ETA - I believe another referendum will not happen and even if it did I think Leave would return a bigger majority.
i know, i know… there’s the other thread, but all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others.
There is another thread, you got that right.
No, a deal will be signed at the last moment whereby all these morons of parliament will proclaim “we dun gud we did” and lots of Bolli will be quaffed and expense sheets populated with the word “other” scrawled on and £’000’s added to thier current expense scam.
Blohard will implode, Farrage has already got his German Passport so he’s off to rest his backside in a silo somewhere in the Black Forest. IDS will have IBS and Rees-Fogg will grow a breard and have In/Out tattooed on his knuckles as he drags them behind him. Grandad Corbyn will saunter off reading children’s books with large print and huge illustrations of a by-gone era when fairies ruled at the bottom of his garden. Cable will stand tall and say “told you so” and retire.
is No Deal inevitable?
Absolutely 100% yes.
😀
Do you want to be German or not?
Ooo… is that an option? I get to keep my rights?!? Sweet. I don't fancy moving out of Yorkshire though… can I become German and stay here?
No. I do not believe that politicians will vote for the country to become materially poorer. They at least understand that those things we take for granted in the fabric of society, including the hallowed NHS, have to be paid for. I've said before that the electorate are basically economically illiterate. Politicians are not. And everything comes down to economics in the end.
Do I think we'll leave at all? That one I'm less sure of. I always expected a Norway-like arrangement to prevail eventually, as I accept that a large proportion of the electorate are unhappy with the current arrangements. That's a mandate for a change, not economic suicide.
the reality is that they didnt blink on TTIP, they pulled it rather than compromise
Eh, that was blocked democratically, wasn't it? Despite the EU being not democratic, or something..
I think it's the most likely option at the moment.
It's the default position, and there is no majority for an alternative.
No deal is the favourite at the bookies too (though ironically, the least likely to win IF we have another referendum).
There's clearly a great deal of pressure being applied from some quarters for No Deal - not just the ERG, but someone is spending an awful lot of money on a targetted social media campaign. Entryism within the Conservative party is driving a nasty narrative of threats of deselection against moderate MPs, not to mention the likes of Patel, Braverman, Francois and Kerchingski who are seemingly pushing for a no deal outcome on the basis that we won't be so precious about adopting US food, environmental and consumer standards if we've had several months of disruption.
I am confident that such an outcome will spell the end of the Conservative Party (in it's current form) as a viable party of government. Remember that 2015 aside, the last time that the Conservatives had an outright majority was back in 1996. The party apparently earns more in donations from dead members than living ones, which won't be lost on some.
What worries me is that the ERG headbangers et al already know this and plan to lurch into an authoritarian rule by executive arrangement - remember that this is pretty much what May is doing right now with postponing votes on her deal.
No it’s not inevitable. The EU is also playing a strategy which includes running the clock down. They are not engaging with uk companies and institutions who are preparing for no deal because they’re playing the hard ball negotiating tactic. It’ll all get agreed in the final seconds. It was never going to be any other way. This is a political game, the EU are masters and their main tactic is to play the frustration game, to wear their opponents down and make them blink first. It’s worked for them up until now, if we hold our nerve it will be the first time anyone has called their bluff so we’ll see, but if a deal is done it’ll happen at the 59th second of the 59th minute of the eleventh hour.
If we had not underfunded mental health services in this country for so long, we could have headed this brexit bollox off at the pass.
molgrips
Eh, that was blocked democratically, wasn’t it?
that was CETA, which walloonia almost blocked
TTIP was decalred dead by teh german economics minister at the time "[They] have failed because we Europeans did not want to subject ourselves to American demands." specifically regarding food standards, open up state run enterprises eg NHS to privatisation & give legal weight to corporations to sue governments.
it never reached ratification votes
Funnily enough Liam Fox was a big fan of it, good job hes nowhere near UK/US trade negotiations now....
Do you want to be German or not?
Right now, if offered, I would take that.
I'm one generation away from qualifying for a German passport - I'd happily learn the language and relocate away from the current cluster****.
No Deal followed in a few years time by bankruptcy, then a bailout by Trump and we become the 51st state in all but name. Scotland goes for 2nd indy referendum but US Navy jets move in to put a stop to the uprising. Feeling threatened that USA has now the worlds largest ever base in the UK, Russia builds its army to annex half of eastern europe. Meanwhile in China...
60% chance according to Robert
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2281497495508316&id=1498276767163730
Do you want to be German or not?
Can I have French instead? Frankly, I'd take either and be happy to move. I could easily move my skills to Switzerland (almost went 10 years ago), or the US, but I'm now at the point where consultancy from a nice french maison looks attractive.
So if we leave with no deal, does that mean we can't start anymore new deals that are good for the UK?
I doubt it cos all our politicians are incompetent wet snowflakes, not a backbone between them.
Where's Thatcher when you actually need her?
It's going to have to be a pretty strong backbone to replace the negotiating power of an additional 27 countries GDPs.
“all i want is your simple yes no answer and a sentence or two explaining why. no bickering. no quoting others”
😔
OK No. Because there are other options.
Yes.
Our government and parliament don't have the skills to outmanouever the date they set in law.
we’re still arguing over rocket design
I think you're being over generous. Most of the wannabe Martians are still arguing that is incredibly simple and we can get there without a rocket.
No, and neither is Brexit.
JP
How about no to No Deal because Jezza agrees to back the Deal in exchange for a GE then stands aside for somebody more electable?
I think it possibly is the most likely single option- not because people want it, but it's essentially the only option that can happen without a concensus or a vote. All the other things require a majority pretty much, no deal only needs the absence of a majority- stalemate and paralysis can't deliver any other options.
My second most likely is "delay but don't come up with any way to progress past where we are now while we delay". Less likely, because it still needs some action, it can't be brought about by inaction. But still more likely than any of the actual productive outcomes, because they all need some sort of plan while it doesn't.
I believe we will leave with May's deal due to the "running down the clock" as has been mentioned.
Best part of this thread was P-Jay's Mars analogy
No Deal won't happen.
Will either be a last minute vote through of current deal or an extension to A50. My money is on extension to A50.
(My money was literally on withdrawal of A50 at 5/1 but looks like I have lost that. Don't gamble kids.)
The pound is strengthening today on the back of tory mps resigning from the party, so the markets seems to think the chance of no deal is getting smaller not greater.
No.
Not even our government (and opposition) are naive and stubborn enough to consider a no deal. Its who blinks first, and they'll leave it as late as possible.
I can really only see it being an extension of A50, followed by a public vote asking if we go with Mays deal, no deal, or no-leave.
This stops Corbyn calling for a GE, it stops either party loosing face and the vote by rejecting the referendum result, and it stops both parties from throwing us off a cliff through arrogance and blind faith.
Best part of this thread was P-Jay’s Mars analogy
Thanks Dude 😉
The government has already spent god knows how much preparing for a no deal Brexit so it is deffinately an option.
My partner is a civil servant and the general opinion within her department is that the majority of her colleagues will be changing roles come March 27th.
The pound is strengthening today on the back of tory mps resigning from the party, so the markets seems to think the chance of no deal is getting smaller not greater.
Ooohh ... that is true too. It looks like the splinter group is trying to get all the remainders vote making them a force to reckon with.
I can really only see it being an extension of A50
That requires approval of the other members, why would they want to put up with May's can-kicking for any longer. Revoke does not require EOU approval, just guts.
anyone care to update their thoughts on this?
i can see it becoming more and more likely. it sucks.
I think there will be an 11th hour parliamentary vote between no deal or retract.
Retract will win.
The pinsors have closed, there are no other options.
Interesting now if no deal goes through. Obvious the MP’s cannot agree on anything and to revoke A50 would go against the public Brexit vote.
Pity they cannot come to some solution but not totally shocked either - party politics before the UK!!
I think no deal is becoming more likely by the day, or vote into the commons.
After all it is the default situation if nothing can be agreed and more importantly any extension to negotiations or timescale to leaving has to be ok’d by ALL the other member states , it would only take 1 to break ranks and it’s all over
@jonworth on Twitter is worth looking at. He has no-deal as more unlikely after today, with the better odds spread evenly across the softer Brexit / remain options.
I worry LINO will, with one final throw of the dice, try to get Parliament to vote on holding a public vote between Her deal and No deal (ie: no remain on the ballot paper). That might be a convenient way out for the remaining Tory Brexiteer rebels, although the DUP wouldn’t back that motion so it would still be very tight.
any extension to negotiations or timescale to leaving has to be ok’d by ALL the other member states
Revoke A50.
Take back control.
Don't beg.
Tories won't be daft enough to call a GE
Let's assume MV4 happens next week and fails
2 year extension then happens
Tories remain in power and try to sort something in those 2 years (which won't happen)
Either way its a delay for at least 2 years.
Only the monumentally stupid or evil actually want no deal and thankfully they're in the minority
I cannot see a point in the MP’s voting anymore - obvious they cannot come to any agreement, even when doing the indicative voting.
Which leaves what - no deal? Can’t see the public wanting another 12/24 months of Brexit talks.
Whoever is in power, Labour or tory, they have the same predicaments..
A GE is just more can kicking.
It will enevitably boil down to suicide no deal V's retract article 50.
To answer the question directly - no.
I think there will be an 11th hour parliamentary vote between no deal or retract.
Retract will win.
Agree. I would revoke and then let the dust settle for a few years. Of the 17 million that voted Brexit only 3 million were actually that bothered about the EU before the whole divisive referendum happened. The rest will just get over it and move on to things that actually matter.
@xracer, Don’t fall for may’s lie about the public mood being one of “wanting it to be over with”. Even if her deal passes, we have years more of this. Same with “no deal”. It’s never going to be “over with”.
I cannot see a point in the MP’s voting anymore – obvious they cannot come to any agreement, even when doing the indicative voting.
Then you have misunderstood the point of those votes. It was the first chance to see what there was and was not a desire for.
The next step is to review that and move the votes on to things that can gain a majority.
Haven't the EU stated that "no deal" means absolutely no transition - we immediately crash-out and start trading on 3rd country / WTO terms which would be catastrophic for areas like farming and many industries. There's already a majority in parliament against "no deal" and it would be the point that only the real head-banger Euro-sceptics would vote for it.