[Closed] iPhone sales slowdown - predictable?

Predictive Text ??

They seem to release a new phone every six months (it's probably not as quick as that) but when many people are using 24 month contracts to pay for the phone it's not a surprise that they aren't willing to trade up. I suppose there's only a finite number of people to sell to so a slow down is inevitable.

Although Android manufacturers basically just copied ideas/features from iOS they could at least do it cheaper.

Although Android manufacturers basically just copied ideas/features from iOS they could at least do it cheaper

That statement rings pretty hollow.

Much more choice in the market now. You can get the same experience at a fraction of the price making a high spec handset almost disposable

suppose there's only a finite number of people to sell to so a slow down is inevitable.

This is my thought, too. Ok China has a shit ton of people still to buy a phone but that, along with "must upgrade to latest fad phone" just isn't sustainable. But who cares about that anyway

Yes they would have known a slow down in sales was inevitable. It's just a sign that the smartphone market has matured. Happens to all successful mass consumer electronic products.

New users become harder to find as the majority of people that want one have one coupled with the improvements between updates becoming less substantial as the devices get better so the urge for a lot of existing users to update regularly is reduced.

I imagine this has happened with everything from the portable radio through televisions, microwave ovens, CD players, and now it's the turn of smartphones. It will happen again to whatever the next breakthrough device is too. Given that Apple has gone through this cycle with the iPod already I'd be very surprised if they didn't know this would happen to the iPhone.

World economy slowing, especially China and Asia. The current phones are very good (I have a 6) and may well not change to a 7 come this Autumn, whereas previously I would change every 2 years. My iPad 1 I kept 4+ years so perhaps we'll start doing the same with our phones.

I doubt Apple are losing too much sleep as they are the most profitable company in the world, ever.

Apple has gone through this cycle with the iPod already

And the Mac, and arguably the iPad. In fact all their products, which is probably why they're reportedly looking into other technologies like cars where there's possibly room to expand.

Despite this Apple are still making a shedload of money from iPhones.

I think the bottle neck is probably the apps and the app-developing industry rather than the phones themselves. The reason to have a smart phone, rather than just a phone-n-text phone is the availability of portable applications. Ever faster and complex phones (adding GPS, accelerometers etc) at each step opened access to new applications that almost immediately became 'must have'- sat-nav for instance.

The problem is, unless theres a new application somewhere that would add ease and functionality to my day to day life, that uses technology that my phone [i]doesn't [/i]have then I'm under no pressure to upgrade, or chase the best phone tech when I come to replace. People are perhaps likely to look down the price list to the cheapest phone that will support the apps they already use rather than look up the price list to something that will give them something new or give them some future-proofing. Theres no feeling that some game changing portable technology is just around the corner.

As it is my 5 year old iP4 doesn't deny me access to any applications that I want to use (and is still 100% functional, not a mark on it or a spec of dust inside it, and still runs all day on the original battery) so whenever I replace it I'm not going to be feeling the same anxiety to 'stay ahead of the curve' that I had when I bought it and obsolescence doesn't seem to be the issue it used to be.

I'm sure all the Apple neophytes thought it was going to last forever...

Samsung's better anyway.

There was a piece about this on the R4 news this morning unfortunately I missed the first part but in the second they said i phones are way to much money for the Chinese market as the average wage is $8K US per annum also after Samsung the next biggest manufacturers of phones are Chinese, the program is probably on catch up by now

@Mr Whoppit - its the worlds most profitable company and if they should cut prices to boost sales Samsung is going to get poleaxed.

Samsung is a company in horrible trouble - apple at least have the top end of the market making most of the profit in the phone industry wherease samsung arent really competing with apple (not in top end numbers sold) and at the bottom end they are being shafted by the chinese copycats

So are people now just moving to Android as it gives basically the same experience for less money? Or have we reached saturation point for iOS?

Can't be a surprise to them. 500 quid for the cheapest one, and operators moving to longer term contracts to cover the costs. A fairly saturated and competitive market. Not a huge amount of obvious innovation. And Apple don't seem to be doing as good a job as usual of bloating iOS to make older devices unusable.

And Apple don't seem to be doing as good a job as usual of bloating iOS to make older devices unusable.

Maybe people have learnt not to upgrade the iQS, I certainly would have turned it off for my wife's phone if I hadn't switched to android.

I do like it when people criticise apple for an update that makes their 4 year old phone a bit slower - i just wish I could get updated for my bloody android !

Samsung is a company in horrible trouble

Errrm no, Samsung are absolutely massive, Samsungs phone business is just a small part of the company, they're involved in everything from Insurance to heavy engineering. Some of the components in iPhones are manufactured by Samsung, notably the SoC is fabricated by Samsung (as well as TSMC).

In terms of Apple iPhone sales decline I think we've gone past "peak phone", the excitement at the idea of having a personal computer in your pocket has waned, low end Android and to some extent Winphone can do everything that the flagship phones can do at not too big a performance penalty. Low/mid end phones are not the egregious PoS they were just a few years ago.

Plus the incredible growth over the last 2 years has been driven largely by China.

A nasty format of 'new' product cycles with mature technology and, at best, marginal innovation - no wonder people have stopped playing the game. They've even tried the bike industry trick of bringing out different sizes 😆

until there is a leap forward in battery tech, I can't see it getting much better.

The main problem Apple have is their other products are in decline, lower MacBook sales and lower ipad sales, which leaves them heavily dependent on the iphone for growth which explains why Apple are now looking at India.

These 2 graphs tell you a lot

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Yes they would have known a slow down in sales was inevitable. It's just a sign that the smartphone market has matured. Happens to all successful mass consumer electronic products.

This, it was always inevitable.

The main problem Apple have is their other products are in decline, lower MacBook sales

I think the ipod was the saviour that gave them time for the iphone. The big problem Apple has is how does it get away from iphone dependence? We know from economic theory and the Nokia/Blackberry story that the tide can turn against a product very quickly if something new comes along.

Personally looking at the data then 2015 will turn out to be peak Apple (share price), with sales falling through 2016 into 2017 and beyond.

The followers are vocal though, the iPhone was probably a saviour of the business. I wonder how much brand loyalty will take them

I always thought the the original imac (the jelly coloured ones) was the saviour of the business with the ipod and later the iphone being the things that propelled Apple into global number one megacorp status.

I always though the the original imac was the saviour of the business

but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales

Never understood the hate for apple myself

but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales

They only ever intend to be a niche player, but they take the lion's share of the industry profit in which ever market they enter. There is very little money in making non Apple laptops (a few $ profit per laptop in most cases).

Not hate, they have a massive markup on a small market slice. It's great being able to make lots on small volume but it makes you very vulnerable to small market changes.

Agreed, but they have been called dead a few times recently, will be interesting to see what new area they can go into and revolutionise now that the great leader has departed

Apples RAM prices are a massive p*ss take. How the hell is the ipod nano still only 16GB. I can get a 64GB memory card online for £12.

Thing I don't understand is, ipod touch has lots of the same functionality - minus the phone and GPS of course, but these bits are not really expensive - and yet sells for a fraction of the price. Is the difference really justified or is it just gouging?

I find a non-apple phone and ipod touch is a pretty good combination, but I'm not a heavy phone user.

Last time I saw figures, they were still massively profitable - with markups of 20%+ on their computer kit rather than the 2 or 3% that dell, hp, etc are making on their kit

Not exactly like for like though, you probably should add Microsoft's profit onto the overall PC profit.

Be interesting to see how Windows 10 gives PC sales a kick.

The slowdown is in India and China - for the variety of reasons stated above.

In the UK Apple increased smartphone market share to 42.5%, pointing them on their way to hit their target of 50% share. Remember also that loyalty is quoted by Apple at 90% - but their need to protect their brand and its value means that, in my view, this will now become a steady one way street.

Is that what's happening?

Guess they'll just move to crippling phones faster with new software, because the carrot of a few extra features on a phone that essentially feels and operates the same for most people isn't enough to make people upgrade.

Getting fed up with Apple's attitude these days.

A huge amount of iPhone growth in recent years has been by expanding the markets it's offered in. Inevitably, there are few new places left to sell iPhones to the (relatively) wealthy. Thus growth slows down.

It's a maturing market and the likes of Apple are shifting into an era of slower, steadier growth compared to the huge increases of the past.

I guess the imac kept them going but they are still in a massive minority in laptop and desktop sales.

According to Gartners statistics in 2015 Apple took a 7.2% market share in combined desktop, laptop and netbook sales which had them in 5th place globally. True it's not number one (Lenovo at 19.8%) but that figure doesn't include iPad sales so taken by itself it's still a healthy and worthwhile part of the business.

In the UK Apple increased smartphone market share to 42.5%, pointing them on their way to hit their target of 50% share..

In the UK they are certianly dropping away from that 50% (even 40%) over the last few months.

Getting fed up with Apple's attitude these days.

You do know you don't have to buy their stuff? If you don't like it, just buy something else.

According to Gartners statistics in 2015 Apple took a 7.2% market share in combined desktop, laptop and netbook sales which had them in 5th place globally. True it's not number one (Lenovo at 19.8%) but that figure doesn't include iPad sales so taken by itself it's still a healthy and worthwhile part of the business.

As long as Apple release a 5S sized 7, then I am happy.

As long as Apple release a 5S sized 7, then I am happy.

Quite a few of my friends said that about the 6S then had a 6S as it was all that was left and wouldn't go back to a smaller phone now.

I think it was predictable that their sales growth would dwindle, the market is reaching saturation and until more countries develop to the point of being able to afford the goods the market won't expand.

Apple need to focus on targeting Android users and expanding their iPad range to target things like the Surface, fully functional desktop OS on a portable device is big in business at the moment and will only increase as hot desking and home working increase.

Apple need to focus on targeting Android users

Not a lot of point, the vast majority of the Android user base is at the low end where there is virtually no money to be made. Plus targeting the lower end would just tarnish the brand. Apple is first and foremost a luxury brand.

Plus targeting the lower end would just tarnish the brand. Apple is first and foremost a luxury brand.

There was an interesting thing in the new yesterday, the total revenue Google has made from Android [b]since day 1[/b] is less than Apple's revenue in a single quarter from iPhone.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/21/10810834/android-generated-31-billion-revenue-google-oracle

Footflaps,does that mean apple are right royally ****ing every one of their customers over?

You do know you don't have to buy their stuff? If you don't like it, just buy something else.

Absolutely and I may well do. I just find it a shame that before I used to love their products and was always more than satisfied and now it's a case of which option is the least unattractive.

Footfalls,does that mean apple are right royally **** every one of their customers over?

All depends on whether you're happy with what you bought. I have loads of Apple products and it doesn't bother me. I think they're still worth the money - in that they are better quality than anything else out there, last ages and generally work very well.

I wonder how many boardrooms are full of people wishing they had the 'problem' of only having made 13 billion quid in the last twelve months.

The present capitalist system of endless ever-incerasing growth is insane, and just completely unsustainable. How many times does it have to prove it before the economists actually address the reality, as opposed to the ideology and dogma

Next crash, then recession anyone?

As a market leader I expect their product to work perfectly all the time.
I don't expect to be a guinea pig for their updates. If they have to do 2 updates in a week someone is not doing their job properly.

I don't expect to be a guinea pig for their updates. If they have to do 2 updates in a week someone is not doing their job properly.

Slow down in China doesn't help them and as other have said we are reaching saturation points in key markets.

On top of this the 6S was a small change over the 6. I changed as I needed a new phone giving up a work device, and it was notably faster and better - but to the outside world it was identical, therefore hard to justify a change.

It is a natural evolution as the game changing phone market has not really moved on in the last few years - we are seeing tweaks but nothing amazing.

Personally I've tried android devices for various lengths of time, and whilst they have some great feature they don't hang together well. And as a long time mac user they work with all my work and home devices. The pricing is not bad either when compared to a comparative device running Android, a top end handset costs a lot. BUT that does not mean they are better, just better FOR ME.

The device change cycles are slow compared to Android - Apple change devices once a year, maybe adding in a cheaper phone in between that. Android manufacturers are on the same cycle but there are many many more of them, each month there is a new android phone - this helps keep a smoother upgrade cycle compared to iPhone.

I would expect the global iPhone market to shrink unless the 7 is amazing, and the overall high profit market along with tablets to decrease. Lower end phones will continue to expand their market, and in this apple can't and don't want to compete.

Android has developed profits of 22 billion USD for google, which is huge, but that is in it's lifetime. In that lifetime Google have paid Apple a $1bil just to be the default search engine. Google paid a 20th of lifetime profit to their key rival, in order that Apple do something most users would automatically do...

I think Apple have enough reserves to ride the storm, I only hope they use their cash reserves to really evolve automation tools for personal and corporate market, if they can really get robotics (software robotics) working to add value to mobile devices the applications are infinite. Google also has the same opportunity, but less cash reserves for pet projects.

2 different markets. 7.2% in os terms is bugger all, give the same to Linux and that gives you still 85% on Windows. Mobile is the volume for them so a dent in that isn't good.

That figure was hardwares sales and not installed user base. It was going off topic but it was a direct answer to the point raised previously about desktop/laptop sales.

My response to the original question hasn't really altered from page one. Yes it would have been expected at some point, it's due to the maturing market for smartphones which will cease to be an area of growth, probably dip a little bit then steady out into flatter year on year sales figures just like all other consumer electronics products that have come before.

the total revenue Google has made from Android since day 1 is less than Apple's revenue in a single quarter from iPhone

Google's development/acquisition of Android was a defensive move, not one to generate massive profits.

Google could see the way the internet was going to move towards mobile and at the time towards 1 company (Nokia as well but they were so slow and wedded to Symbian) who could lock them out of the only major source of revenue, advertising, as they're doing now.

It should also be noted that we may not be buying Smartphones in the future, Apple are effectively leasing phones in the US, for $30 to $50 per month you get an iPhone with a yearly update.

It's worth noting that this well publicised 'slow down' isn't a reduction in sales. They sold 74.8 million iPhones first quarter, the same time the year before they sold 74.5 million - so they sold 300k more iPhones than the year before - it's just the rate in which sales are growing has slowed down.

It's a pretty incredible mesasure of sucess if people get all excited because you're sales figures didn't increase as much as they expected.

As a market leader I expect their product to work perfectly all the time.

The real world would like a word....

Google's development/acquisition of Android was a defensive move, not one to generate massive profits.

Nonsense.

Google make their money from search and could see that as the internet goes mobile they needed to make sure they grabbed a big chunk of mobile search traffic, hence Android. They give it away free hoping to make money on search and apps.

As a market leader I expect their product to work perfectly all the time.
The real world would like a word....

My fridge has worked perfectly for years.
Hotpoint don't feel the need to fiddle with its settings every month and make it worse.
If you are not a computer enthusiast you don't want to spend hours looking up how to put it right when it worked perfectly well pre update.

Bit of a mean comparison. A fridge is always just a fridge, it leaves the factory able to do one thing and stays doing that thing until eventually something breaks, if I kept my phone in the factory condition just using the preinstalled apps and never expecting them to be improved and didn't add new apps produced by a range of developers with varying skill levels then i would expect it to work well for a long time without updates too.

If someone wants a simple single use phone that just works then plenty of those are available for not very much money. But if you want adopt the emerging technological marvel of a small computer that sits in your pocket able to to a multitude of tasks then I don't think it's unreasonable to expect small things to occasionally go a bit wrong. Ten years ago these devices didn't even exist in any meaningful form.

In the last week my mac book no longer recognises my ipad. My ipad won't load my email account even though the same settings are used on 2 more I pads and an iPhone. (The android gadgets took the email account no problrm)
Now this iPhone safari problem.
Apple must do better. They have the resources and the brains.

Google's development/acquisition of Android was a defensive move, not one to generate massive profits.

Nonsense.

Google make their money from search and could see that as the internet goes mobile they needed to make sure they grabbed a big chunk of mobile search traffic, hence Android. They give it away free hoping to make money on search and apps.

You didn't read the second paragraph did you.

Google could see the way the internet was going to move towards mobile and at the time towards 1 company (Nokia as well but they were so slow and wedded to Symbian) who could lock them out of the only major source of revenue, advertising, as they're doing now.

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The Pope and Tim Cook. In the week that growth stalled, strange timing? Conspiracy? Cabal? Lizard people? Trying to get in touch with Steve to ask what to make next now the arse has fallen out of the phone market?

Makes you think.

Makes you think.

Yep, mainly why would either of them want to meet the other. WTF do they have in common?

Yep, mainly why would either of them want to meet the other. WTF do they have in common?

Presumably both heads of organisations that have millions of people hanging on their word with blind faith ready to defend them to non believers, combined with a reluctance to pay their fair share of tax? So comparing notes and the usual.

I might go and buy a 6S.

Anybody reccomend the 64 or 128gb?

I might go and buy a 6S.

Anybody reccomend the 64 or 128gb?

128 if you can afford it and you want to keep music on it or if you use lots of attachments in mail. 64 if it is just apps you use and only personal email

Thanks mynamesnotbob my 6 64gb has 25gb free after I deleted apps and games which makes it a bit boring.

I have not put a 1% of my music on and plan to snap pics/vids more often.

Selling my mint 6 iphone to my old man cheaply for £200 and buying a 6S for the 4K.

A few more months and it will be worth that anyway with mobile recyclers.

Have been offered £350-400 private sale and £295 from a recycler which usually knock a few quid off when they have your phone no matter the condition.

TBH early smartphones felt like sorcery, but it took a while for them to really realise the potential. New iterations add less as time passes making them less desirable It's not just forseeable, it's genuinely inevitable- market sector matures.

Would be nice to see cheaper prices though!

The main problem is that now the smartphones actually work and it's the network that's the problem.

The improvements with each iteration I doubt people really want/need other than having the next gadget.

I had a 4, it worked great, never ever upgraded the iOS so after 3 years it was a bit tired and no longer was able to use many apps due to this.

Rather than shell out on a new one I got a £200 lumia. It did pretty much everything the iPhone did, had 64mb memory and running outlook email was virtually instantaneous like blackberry... It only lasted 18-20 months but replaced with a cheap 640 as (other than the camera) is more than exceeds what I need it for.

I'd not even contemplate another iPhone at >£300 as a consequence.

Yeah, and it's a flatlining of growth, not a reduction.

Bit of a mean comparison. A fridge is always just a fridge, it leaves the factory able to do one thing and stays doing that thing until eventually something breaks, if I kept my phone in the factory condition just using the preinstalled apps and never expecting them to be improved and didn't add new apps produced by a range of developers with varying skill levels then i would expect it to work well for a long time without updates too.

in terms of testing and avoiding bugs it's probably one of the easiest jobs going.

As is constantly biting on Apple. We get it, you're an Android man.

I've had iPhones on and off from the 3G, 4S and now 5C. I've also had an android phone and recently experimented with another £90 android job.

I have a 5 year old MacBook Pro and iPad mini.

My current iPhone hopefully has a year left which will keep me contract free (which I will continue to do thru Giffgaff) but my MacBook is struggling and my iPad is dying.

I'm pretty convinced they are 'lifed' by Apple and the premium isn't justified. Android isn't a slick and sadly software I use is Mac only but I would expect to get an iPod touch and android phone next. I couldn't however go to Windows as I find it a dreadful experience.

Sadly since the demise of Nokia and Palm there is very little choice in the phone market. It's all a rip off regardless of which way you turn!!

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Saw [url= http://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2016/01/samsung-doesnt-seem-too-confident-about-future-smartphone-sales/ ]this[/url] just now reporting on how Samsung (the key player in android phones) is also not confident in future growth.

Like a few people have mentioned earlier in the thread the slowdown in growth isn't just an apple thing it's a smartphone thing.

Yes Apple will need to accommodate a slowdown in a very profitable part of their business but i don't think they'll be any worse off than any other manufacturer of smartphones.

I've not read all that ^ so apologies if this has already been mentioned, but I read something interesting the other day about divergence making a comeback. For the past few years we've seen a rapid pace of convergence where technologies are converging into one device i.e. the smartphone.

Not many years back Apple were promoting Macs as the hub of your digital world, with MP3 players, DVD players, digital cameras and PDAs all connecting to that hub. All those gadgets became redundant for many people when they got smart phones and tablets. The tech industry is now beginning a divergent trend and an example of this is the comeback of vinyl. Brands like Sony are dusting off record pressing equipment and Technics recently showcased their venerable SL1200 deck at the 2016 Consumer Electronics Show. apparently vinyl sales in the US are now worth more than streaming, although I have no idea of the data behind this because it sounds a little suspect.

Anyhow, the point is what someone on page 1 mentioned i.e. the market has matured. We're looking for our tech fix elsewhere and smartphones no longer give us that satisfying experience that new tech can give; they are just another tool now. I for one am having a hoot rediscovering my vinyl collection and listen to records more than streaming in 2016.