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Should we be s(h)iting ourselves ?
Seems like a pretty silly thing to fight Russia...
Could it happen ?
Is the British government fluffing up its wings etc. ?
How can it be resolved ?
I feel slightly nervous about he whole thing...
It's all bluster.
I really fail to see how we can declare war on Russia, at least unilaterally. No, I take that back. I fail to see how anyone could, even as a group. Russia is economically too important to a large chunk of the EU and so they will choose to not do it and the US is to broke to start one.
Sanctions are probably all we will do.
Pretend sanctions is all we will do.
[i]Seems like a pretty silly thing to fight Russia...[/i]
Is that why they're doing what they are?
We liberated Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans. I don't see why Russia can't liberate part of a country that doesn't want to be part of Europe.
Yes the referendum you say was hooky. Still why do 50% of Crimean Officers want to defect to the Russian military?
We'd have to give up all of our bikes to be melted down for the war effort
It won't happen.
America and her lackies (us at the front) don't have the resources or stomach for a protracted ground offensive. Putin knows this and has brilliantly manoeuvred the entire crisis towards this question
And China watches on...
If we are stupid enough to pick an economic fight with Russia, I hope they cut off the gas supply ASAP. It's the only way of getting our expansionist EU leaders to wind their necks in.
what's the cause if this latest bout of paranoia? 😆 what nonsense are the news channels peddling today?
The thing that [b]really[/b] worries me is if the Russians pull a similar stunt in the Baltic; the difference there is that the Baltic States are in NATO and then we get into Article V territory.
If we are stupid enough to pick an economic fight with Russia, I hope they cut off the gas supply ASAP. It's the only way of getting our expansionist EU leaders to wind their necks in.
We're relatively independent of Russian gas supplies; Germany OTOH...
I sense there is so much of butt hurt, it does look like Ukraine spring didn't go to plan and US waving stick of righteousness at Russia sending EU cronies, who are crippled by financial dependancy on Russia. Yet US fluff about its own ideal moral ground which themselve don't follow.
Its clear, world politik is not unilateral anymore.
US needs to put their monies to match their big mouths.
^^^ Baltic offensive.
Do you really believe that Russia's next move to declare war on Baltic? I know Lithuania declared war on Russia, but no one noticed apart from Lithuanians, some of them laughing at the idea.
I don't know; but there are large ethnic Russian populations in the Baltic States so there are some parallels.
I suspect the Russians don't really have an appetite for WW3 either.
Noone is going to declare war on Russia.
The hypocrisy of the west is truely staggering in this one. I don't see why Russia didn't propose a 'proper' referendum however. They'd have won anyway and would be in a far stronger position to legitimise their positon.
Nobody is going to do a bloody thing. Facts on the ground are all that matters. The City of London is awash with billions in bent Russian cash, [url= http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?_r=0 ]being laundered[/url]. Europe is totally dependent on Russian energy supplies.
Putin knows that he's got everyone by the short and curlies. Obama can bluster all he likes. He's no European allies now, no matter what anyone says. What happens now is entirely down to the topless shark-puncher, with his mahoosive approval ratings at home for how he's played this so far. His domestic audience are loving this sticking two fingers up at the west! Its like Thatchers Falklands moment x 100
If he fancies annexing another couple of countries, he will. If he doesn't, he won't. He knows that its all just bluff, and he can do what he likes, with no real penalty to pay. So he'll ignore everyone and do whatever it is he plans to do
We liberated Iraq, Afghanistan and the Balkans. I don't see why Russia can't liberate part of a country that doesn't want to be part of Europe.Yes the referendum you say was hooky. Still why do 50% of Crimean Officers want to defect to the Russian military?
I seem to remember the Russians weren't so keen on supporting self-determination in Chechnya.
I do think our reporting on Russian affairs generally is massively biased though. We still portray them in terms of evil Soviet warmongers with no attempt made to understand their underlying motivations.
I sense there is so much of butt hurt, it does look like Ukraine spring didn't go to plan and US waving stick of righteousness at Russia sending EU cronies, who are crippled by financial dependancy on Russia. Yet US fluff about its own ideal moral ground which themselve don't follow.Its clear, world politik is not unilateral anymore.
US needs to put their monies to match their big mouths.
Don't kid yourself, the Russian economy is ridiculously vulnerable. They won't cut off gas supplies to Europe. If he did he would be starting Cold War 2 and it would end just the same way as it did the last time, with starving Russians and people lining up to spend a weeks salary on a Big Mac.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2013/11/russias-economy?zid=295&ah=0bca374e65f2354d553956ea65f756e0
The only thing Russians are good at making are AK47's, everything else they make is utter crap. They are not an economy that can make up for lost revenues in oil and gas.
I'm a lefty, however, with that said there are so many utterly hopeless lefties on here I'm half inclined to take a ****ing revolver to the shed and end it all.
I do think our reporting on Russian affairs generally is massively biased though. We still portray them in terms of evil Soviet warmongers with no attempt made to understand their underlying motivations.
Do Mexico and Canada fear the yanks as much as Finns, Poles, Latvians, Chechens, Georgians, and Czechs fear the Russians?
Yes the referendum you say was hooky. Still why do 50% of Crimean Officers want to defect to the Russian military?
Better pensions?
We won't go to war over Ukraine.
If he invades a NATO country, then it gets tricky.
Ideally, we could go for sanctions. Hell, if we confiscated Russian assets over here we could halve the deficit. Actually, dodgy russian money in london helped fuel the crash and our supposed recovery.
The UK would be less affected by sanctions than a lot of Europe, less dependent on Russian gas. I was astonished to see the other day that France has a $1 billion contract to build ships for Russia. How the hell did Russia sink to that level? The electrics will be a nightmare just as the warranty runs out 😆
Do Mexico and Canada fear the yanks as much as Finns, Poles, Latvians, Chechens, Georgians, and Czechs fear the Russians?
Not quite sure what that's supposed to mean. All I was meaning was that there seems to be very little or no mention of this context in any of the news reporting I see:
The causes of the unfolding crisis in Ukraine are many, but most fundamentally its roots can be found in an enormously consequential decision made by the United States and its allies in the early 1990s. Faced with a strategic challenge of constructing a new security architecture for post-Cold War Europe, the decision was made to embark on a program of gradual NATO expansion to the east.
http://articles.latimes.com/2014/mar/04/opinion/la-oe-walker-ukraine-nato-expansion-20140304
I think they should just start the war now. i.e. both sides should stop pussy footing.
I bet USA etc are chickens worst still for EU. Go on make the first move.
As for Russia get your nuke ready and make sure you use it big time as I want to see mushroom cloud/smoke all over. Make sure you have a few of them flying to the world most populated countries as well.
Zombie maggots must be culled. Simple.
🙄
Do Mexico and Canada fear the yanks as much as Finns fear the Russians?
The Finn's don't fear the Russians.
We still portray them in terms of evil Soviet warmongers with no attempt made to understand their underlying motivations.
Would their underlying motivation be the oil and gas drilling rights within their new territorial waters off the coast of Crimea?
Russia has the resources.
China has the money.
They dont need the approval of the US/Europe.
The game has changed.
The Finn's don't fear the Russians.
Russia has the resources.China has the money.
Resources are only valuable if there is someone willing to buy them. If you cut 739 million people from your customer list then the prices for your resources elsewhere are going to dwindle as you have to flood the market elsewhere to make up for the shortfall in revenue. This would be economic suicide for Russia considering it's current economic position.
China has it's own problems as well, lots of their investments are in American debt - which the Americans could wipe out by driving massive inflation if they really wanted to.
Putin isn't doing this because he can, he's doing it because he has to - to keep hold of political power - power that is or was slowly slipping from him.
Finns should have Benneli M4 to protect them unlike other countries nearby.
Finns should have Benneli M4
Oh FFS...
If we cut our financial centres off from Russia then the Russian economy will go down the drain far faster than Europe. The Russian stock market would crash overnight and I imagine most of Russia would become insolvent. You might say the oligarchs with all their cash can keep things going but they wont have access to the financial institutions to utilise that cash. EU makes up for 41% of Russia's exports if they decide to stop exports to the EU then it would just exasperate Russia's economic woes and expedite the process towards complete economic collapse. Soon enough they will have to give in or they will end up like North Korea.
It was economics that led the West to win the cold war and it is how we should look to win this one if Putin starts becoming more aggressive again.
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Would their underlying motivation be the oil and gas drilling rights within their new territorial waters off the coast of Crimea?
Possibly - but more likely the NATO expansion in E Europe mentioned above.
The government's 'sanctions' are pathetic. But can be explained by this:
[img] 
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The Finn's don't fear the Russians.
No they just hate them expecialy the older ones who live in Karelia
Finns do fear a Russian invasion but they accept that it's unlikely. I've heard a few times now that people are stockpiling dry food and other goods at their homes, [i]just in case[/i]. They're more concerned with loss of trade and would be late to join any armed conflict.
There's a lot of Russian immigrants in Finland and it's causing problems with some sections of society. The Russians that I've met have come for desire of a more equal and better supported society, seeing Russia as a dead-end. It has put strains on schools, hospitals and the upper end of the housing market (particularly Helsinki and the east). I think that those Russian immigrants will be nervous at the thought of any further conflict with Russia.
No way Hans Rey!
I'd say the Finns are wary of the Russians based on their volatile history with the country, and would certainly be concerned over the repercussions of any potential invasion, as would any nation.
To say the Finns are in fear of the Russians is inaccurate though, certainly amongst my family and Finnish friends their is no fear of Russia. There is a healthy degree of dislike though!
it woul mean that the 2018 world cup might be used as a tool
To be fair, Finland does seem to be populated soley by descendants of Chuck Norris.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
😯 @ the stats
Maybe we need to buy ourselves a battalion of Finns to complement the Ghurkas.
There is a word in Finnish; Sisu.
Aren't Finns related to Hungarians genetically and in terms of language? That would explain my mothers side of the family really well. 😈
As a Polish friend once said, "How do I know there's something wrong with you? You're mums Hungarian".
I'm going to lay my cards on the table and say that I'd be surprised if we go to war with Russia over the Crimea but also, unfortunately, I'll be surprised if we don't go to war with Russia at all at some point in the future. Putin is powerful, ambitious and pretty much unchecked. Eveytime he gets away with this kind of thing(I'll count this as the third after Abkhazia and South Ossetia, although there are obvious differences) he gains more confidence, and his dreams of an expanded Russia Federation are no secret. So, in my humble opinion, the longer Putin is in power the closer we move to the probability of him pushing his luck to the point that we get sucked in to a deeply unfortunate conflict.
As long as we're in Moscow before Christmas, what could possibly go wrong?
its already costing Russia
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19b9ad88-b37c-11e3-bc21-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2wzE4AV5M
High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/19b9ad88-b37c-11e3-bc21-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2wzEv1m6GThe Russian government is braced for the country’s capital outflows to soar to $70bn in the first three months of the year as investors seek cover from the fallout of President Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian land grab.
Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment? He's got what he wanted, the Black Sea naval base.
And he also no longer has to provide discounted gas for the whole of the Ukraine which was the deal for renting the base from the Ukrainians.
Had the Ukrainians not grumbled about kicking the Russians out of the base every few years they'd probably still be owning the otherwise remarkably poor region.
Putin's not really done anything much about the rest of the ethnically Russian eastern part of the Ukraine, and why should he? It's an incredibly poor area that offers little for him.
The Russians always feared losing the Black Sea Base and it would've been much more likely if the whole of the Ukraine had gone under the economically supportive wing of the EU. He saw an opportunity in the unrest and took it.
Germany can't do without their gas since they shut down their nuclear plants so the EU can't unite, the Yanks don't care as they have fracked their way out of the fuel dependency that led them into the Gulf and importing from Russia.
What would Putin get from invading the Baltic states? Nothing but a possible expensive escalation. No point there!
It's just old Generals wishing for the good old days of the Cold War when they could ask for and get all the toys they wanted without actually having to justify the expense. If you are in the military hardware business old Russia was the perfect enemy, it's hard to sell an ICBM system when your enemy is a dude in a pickup with an RPG.
Once nothing else happens for a bit then all the bluster will die down and the wealthy Russians money will be as welcome as ever to our debt ridden economies.
Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment?
1) He got away with it
2) It's made him very popular at home
3) He wants an empire
4) He's a little bit mad
transmute - Member
Why would Putin invade anywhere else at the moment? He's got what he wanted...
Hold on, didn't we say something like that about a chap in Germany about, oh, 75 years ago or so...
If we did declare war on russia, all we would need to do would be to send in the gay liberation armies from Brighton and Manchester and other big cities, and scare the pooh out of them rusians, they seem so scared of gay people.
I think transmute makes sense, it was all about the naval base
in 2009 he shut of Ukraines gas, costing russia $1.5billion and severly damaging Russias reputation as an energy supplier. But in the end all he wanted was an extension to the lease on their base in Crimea
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Kharkiv_Pact
when it looked like that deal was up in smoke he stepped in again
Putin wouldnt risk further isolation, for now
Nobody is going to do a bloody thing. Facts on the ground are all that matters. The City of London is awash with billions in bent Russian cash, being laundered.
That NY Times article is (by a long chalk) the best thing I've found on STW for a long time. Compulsory reading even if you don't 100% agree.
Which NY Times article is that?
The price of caviar would go through the roof I reckon. My cat would be furious. 😉
It's the only way of getting our expansionist EU leaders to wind their necks in.
Its our way or Putins. Which do you prefer?
Once again the businessman has sold us down the river by allowing us to become dependant on Russian money and oil etc, for our supposed economic well being, just like they did with China and its cheap labour. So now we can't do jack sh*t, Putin knows this, and his land grab won't stop.
Hold on, didn't we say something like that about a chap in Germany about, oh, 75 years ago or so...
Bingo, Reduced tax bingo of course. 😉
I see quite a few similarities with this situation and what Happened in the 1930's in Germany. While in the 1930's it was appeasement to try and keep the peace, today its economic appeasement that has left us weak in the presence of a one party state lead by an Ex-KGB officer. It won't end well.
We shouldn't allow this to continue.
I work onshore and last night did the paperwork on a Baltic ship, the Chief Officer was from Sevestapol(?).
He was pretty much estatic, his family and himself consider themselves to be Russian, couldn't wait to get home and change his driving licence and passport to Russian. As far as he was concerned Putin was righting a wrong as Crimea should never have been handed over.
As far as he was concerned Putin was righting a wrong
I think it's more the methods used rather than results obtained that has concerned most people. If Putin had allowed Ukraine to get back on it's feet before a Crimean referendum was held then no-one would be able to criticize him for acting outside of international law.
Putin knows this, and his land grab won't stop.
Do you honestly believe this? Putin has played his hand perfectly and made pretty much all of the Western leaders look like idiots, why would would he suddenly switch from being a very astute politician to being as stupid and useless as ours? He's got what he wants (the naval base) without any major loss of life, and the people in the country he has 'liberated' actually want him to be there, and the people who voted him in actually support him (72% approval rating, versus 35% for DC and 44% for Obama). Its a masterclass in how these things should be done, if they need to be.
Western leaders would like him to act like a fool, as it would make them look less incompetent; however I doubt he's going to do this just to make them feel better.
I don't think he'll stop there - he'll keep going as he thinks he can get away with it. I really don't know how we got here, it's embarrassing how we suddenly seem to be so impotent. I am surpised CMD hasn't sent out an aircraft carrier with no planes to teach him.
No idea why the Crimeans want to be part of Russia either.