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This is once in a generation storm. Are we however going to see more and more like this. I read that this storm is close to the maxium that our atmosphere could create and/or support for any time.
I love winter storms when its all safe and cosy but this looks downright terrifying. I hope that all in the path are as safe as can be.
I love winter storms when its all safe and cosy but this looks downright terrifying.
Yeah, there is a whole world of difference between a nice winter storm and this – even if it does weaken as expected, it is still massive and it is hitting landfall from a different position than they normally do in that region so it is expected to cause even more damage to a greater area.
This is one of several once in a generation storms this year, other years could well/will be worse. All in it's path are not as safe as can be. It is as energetic as physics will allow given its location, air pressure and gulf water temps, however if those are different, bigger is possible.
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1843723158295052432?t=1kQSeUfu0d7d0rjq5XLCEg&s=19
Embedded video with special effects of the expected storm surges.
Whole flocks of birds just caught in the eye apparently so big you can see the flocks on weather radar.
CaherFull Member
The Hurricane hunters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association flight reminded me of landing at Kerry airport.
Really impressed by how much crap is lying around the cabin. You'd figured they'd have everything squared away as bumpy weather is hardly unexpected
This is once in a generation storm
From what I've read this is getting close to the theoretical maximum wind speed which is alarming, and I hope everyone in Florida gets out safely.
There was a suggestion that Milton/Helene might affect the US election as a lot of the electoral infrastructure will be trashed in affected states.
A friend of mine messaged me to say he's expecting the eye to go directly over his house. He's a bit fatalistic about it, but he's looking at the brghtside and hoping that it brings down the crappy fence his neighbour has so he will fit a new one.
He also mentioed that there's a new conspiracy theory going around about how it suddenly decided to turn and go the way it did. Apparently there was a P3 Orion track at the point it turned at the time it turned and the local nut-jobs have seized on this and a Castro-era weather control conspiracy to put two and two together to make 7.
might affect the US election as a lot of the electoral infrastructure will be trashed in affected states.
So not because one of the candidates is in the pocket of the oil companies and is a massive climate sceptic, so electing him will do nothing to help with the issue that's behind the more frequent and bigger storms?
Thats alot of water!!!
He also mentioed that there’s a new conspiracy theory going around about how it suddenly decided to turn and go the way it did
I wonder if the people spreading this theory also claim that 'human activity cannot change the climate'....
I wonder if the people spreading this theory also claim that ‘human activity cannot change the climate’….
There seems to be an almost 100% overlap ?
I know someone whose house was Destroyed in Hurricane Dorian. They were drying the house out after Helene and now have evacuated to Georgia (they live in St Petersburg) If I were them I’d be thinking the bloody things were targeting me!
From the safety of the UK, it is impressive to see, but for those caught in it, it is going to be absolutely awful.
I can't help but think human activities are helping these things grow and get worse, but I also can't help thinking that despite us knowing this, we aren't going to change our ways...
I do hope something drastic changes and it reduces very quickly.
From what I’ve read this is getting close to the theoretical maximum wind speed which is alarming, and I hope everyone in Florida gets out safely.
Not everyone though, on Fridays news I want to see a bloated trump floating in the debris with a "vote trump" yard sign thrown through his forehead.
There seems to be an almost 100% overlap ?
Oh all the genuine storm warning tweets are answered / quote tweeted by a raft of climate conspiracy nonsense. On a related note, there's an Instagram feed that shows ultra-long-distance flight paths as a video and diagram of where the aircraft is, why it's flying over the north pole etc and the comments section to that is basically all just Flat Earthers denouncing it as fake.
There was some Florida governor / government person caught on video announcing that he wouldn't be leaving for a bunch of made up global warming conspiracy stuff.
The conspiracy theories on twitter are crazy. Do people really think this has been created by HAARP to wipe out trump voters to protect the billionaire democrats who went to Epsteins island? Or am I the one believing the conspiracy theory for thinking that the conspiracy theories are true??
My cousin lives in Tampa , in a place called Tarpon Springs, he really wants to get out but says there's no available hotel rooms, shelters or other accomodation for hundreds of miles because everything is still full with people displaced by the last storm. Apparently many people have decided to just drive away without firm plans only to find traffic at a standstill and fuel sold out.
Sounds miserable and scary.
This above - it's no good officials saying if you stay, the house is your coffin, when you can't actually get out due to the traffic and no-where to stay.
This is once in a generation storm.
while I appreciate that this is a very big storm and not wanting to belittle the impact it will have, when I lived in Houston in Texas the place would flood every winter and every winter the floods would be described as the worst floods in the last 100 years. That did make me wonder how bad the floods were 100 years ago.
I can’t help but think human activities are helping these things grow and get worse, but I also can’t help thinking that despite us knowing this, we aren’t going to change our ways…
Yup. The elephant in the room though is that climate change is happening anyway. It's not enough for us to stop making it worse, we need to be actively trying to mitigate it.
The conspiracy theories on twitter are crazy.
I believe that what we have here is a tautology.
Every so often I take a look at this live cam thing. Its already a bit breezy and wet. The ground is still water logged from the last Hurricane
It would appear that alot of folk are not running away just yet though and keen to get in on the live cam feed (top right cam)
My cousin lives in Tampa , in a place called Tarpon Springs, he really wants to get out but says there’s no available hotel rooms, shelters or other accomodation for hundreds of miles because everything is still full with people displaced by the last storm. Apparently many people have decided to just drive away without firm plans only to find traffic at a standstill and fuel sold out.
The sounds horrible, I hope things turn out okay. Apparently there are 6 million people inside the mandatory evacuation zone. Getting that many people anywhere is a huge undertaking and that's before you consider all the people still displaced from the last storm.
This is not helped by people like Eric Schmidt and Bill Gates saying that, despite AI datacenter usage being a big source of greenhouse emissions (and only increasing), the planet should keep going on building new ones because AI is advancing so rapidly that it will be able to solve the problem it has caused.
Errr, WTF?
The conspiracy theories on twitter are crazy.
I believe that what we have here is a tautology.
Three tautologies by my count.
the planet should keep going on building new ones because AI is advancing so rapidly that it will be able to solve the problem it has caused.
This line is consistently trotted out by the people who will benefit (to the tune of billions) if AI is a success. They need to push this because, so far, AI companies are losing money at an astonishing rate, and they need to turn the ship around in a hurry.
Panning cam here (easier in the eyes than the four box thing up there)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HEmXK3BihPA
I was living in Grand Cayman in 2004 when we got hit hard by Hurricane Ivan. Never been so scared in my life and it was the storm surge more than the 150mph winds that terrified us all as. The islands highest point is a shade over 50ft so 20ft storm surge wiped a lot of homes and businesses away completely.
to put two and two together to make 7.
7? I'm not sure they can count that high...
7? I’m not sure they can count that high…
Surely the more advanced ones can count to 7 on one hand?
Just heard about "Lieutenant Dan", who plans on riding it out at sea on a 20ft boat.
Pity the poor sods who have to go looking for him...
We are redefining “once in a 100 years” events nearly every year, all over the world. That’s the nature of climate change.
We're also redefining “once in a 100 years” every year, all over the world, because that's how time works. (-:
You know when your in the lakes up high and you go round a corner and get hit by a 40 mph gust and you poop yourself.
There is no way that I would still be there storm shelter or not. I've seen a photo of someone ratchet strapping there house to ground.
It doesn’t help that their houses are made of sticks and on fault low lying flat ground.
It reminds me of Katrina all those years ago, the richest nation on earth somehow completely incompetent at dealing with natural disaster mitigation and relief.
Huge areas of the residential areas flooded during Katrina are still today the way they were the day after it hit.
Watching that first webcam with people taking selfies in front of massive waves, the Darwin awards entry list may be getting larger
The "once in a hundred" years / "once in a generation*" terminology is really confusing. People think it's a measure of frequency of an event, but it really isn't - it's a measure of size of an event. A 1:100 year event is simply an event that is so large there is only a 1 percent chance of it happening in any year. That absolutely doesn't mean it will only happen once in a hundred years, or if it happens today it must have happened a 100 years ago indeed there is no reason why it can't happen multiple times in a few years or even multiple times in the same year....especially if the underlying causes behind the event are rapidly changing, as the original percentages would have more often than not been derived using calculations that involved assumptions of regular distribution and randomness in a climate we no longer live in.
I hate the use of term......
( * generation is generally taken as 30years)
Plus, it's doubly confusing to talk about these long timescales because we're also far more exposed to storms than we were, what with the sheer level of development and population distribution and whatnot and the complexity of modern infrastructure. Equally we do have better storm protection but some stuff, you can't protect against. So "severity of storm" can be quite uncoupled from "extent of damage". Same as "we ****ed up all the rivers and built right beside them and drained off all the uplands and now everything floods" but on a much grander scale.
That's a snap shot of a live cam people just driving round that road in pickups.
(Live feed on YouTube but it's a local fox network so I'm not posting the YouTube link)
Human Darwin award 
That isn't Marine Parade, Scarborough where it's gonna hoi six inch clemmies at your noggin. They'll be fine so long as they clear off soon.
No doubt we'll have the number who refuse to leave their homes despite the danger.
It's the same with wild fires. They refuse then the rescue services come back to find their charred remains, or have an epiphany of the danger they are in and try to drive out, only to discover being surrounded by fire starves their vehicle of oxygen, and the rescuers find their charred remains in the remains of their charred vehicles.
Year on year Darwin awards are handed out to increasing numbers
Ahh the good old ignorant Brit
https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/british-family-florida-disneyworld-hurricane-milton/
****!
@gwaelod - the biggest problem is that maths isn't sexy or interesting to many people. Stats even less so!
In this country we have people who brag "I don't do numbers me". FFS
So trying to explain why your 1-in a 100 year event is different to mine due to differences in methodology, data, time horizon, etc is a non-starter.
Hurricanes, well they're like buses, you wait all day then 3 come at once. They're taking liberties I tell ya
I'm all about the AEP.
@bruneep Seeing as Disneyworld is now apparently closed, I’m not sure what he’s going to do on his holiday.
anecdotally (from reddit) I'm reading that republican politocos repeatedly voted against supplying funding for hurricane aid, because that would be communist or something, and are now attacking the democrats for not giving aid, even though they (republicans) blocked the bill in the fist place..
I mean, what will it take to make people wake up and vote? How Is Trump still fairly close to Harris in the national polls/ it makes no sense...
Seeing as Disneyworld is now apparently closed, I’m not sure what he’s going to do on his holiday.
Practice his compo face for local rag when and if he gets home
That absolutely doesn’t mean it will only happen once in a hundred years, or if it happens today it must have happened a 100 years ago indeed there is no reason why it can’t happen multiple times in a few years or even multiple times in the same year
I realise most people know this on here…but I need to vent.
I hear you. I don’t think the news reports were even taking that approach to the statement. It was simply pure bullshit.
Was in Clearwater/ Naples/Everglades just after the 2022 one - Ian, everything was still only part open due to water damage.
With Milton, it'll be the fire you have to worry about
Seeing as Disneyworld is now apparently closed, I’m not sure what he’s going to do on his holiday.
Technically he can still go to "SeaWorld" and the wonderfully named "Typhoon Lagoon Water Park" and "Blizzard Beach Water Park".
They just won't be the nice safe Disney versions...
@joshvegas – don’t you like a TVaR?
I have just finished contributing to a report on Brechin post babe
There was a lot of debate about how to represent a lot of the number for something that will end up in the public domain.
It's so complicated writing to so many different levels.
watched the news earlier where a mother and daughter refusing to leave because God will protect them. Can’t argue with that one I guess
Reminds me of the old joke about a guy trapped by rising floodwaters, a boat comes by and the rescuers call for him to get on board.
"No thanks", he replies, "the Lord will protect me".
The floodwaters continue to ride until the guy is on his roof then a helicopter comes overhead and drops a line.
"It's OK", he replies, "the Lord will protect me".
The floodwaters continue to rise and the guy drowns. He arrives in Heaven and confronts God, questioning why he drowned.
God replies, "I sent you a boat and a helicopter you idiot, what more did you expect?!"
Twelvty usually works!
Channel 4 news mentioned that Trump is saying his usual BS about the situation in Florida but missed the actual segment. What has the dick head been saying in order to kill a few of his supporters off, anyone know?
willard
Full Member
Spoke with my mate earlier. Apparently it’s predicted to be “only” Cat 1 when it goes over his house. He’s staying because his car has a blown engine and he can’t evac his mother. His internet still works. He’s sending me memes.
Best wishes to your mate, that's a rough situation to be in. Hope he and his mother come through it safe and sound.
What has the dick head been saying in order to kill a few of his supporters off, anyone know?
Bigly storm. The biggliest. I know all about storms. I once shagged a storm.
Oh wait, that was a Stormy.
Couple of weeks from now he'll be in the daily wail whining about how their holiday was ruined and they couldnt go anywhere due to floods/winds/etc
@poopscoop There’s a real possibility a lot of his supporters won’t be able to vote, as all the election infrastructure is trashed.
@pk13 while the sea is definitely choppy at Key West, there seems to be plenty of people walking around there. It's around 250miles south of Tampa in a straight line so conditions there could be considerably better than where Milton is due to land.
ratherbeintobago
Full Member
@poopscoop There’s a real possibility a lot of his supporters won’t be able to vote, as all the election infrastructure is trashed.
I didn't think of that!
From what I’ve read this is getting close to the theoretical maximum wind speed which is alarming, and I hope everyone in Florida gets out safely.
Simply, it is the theoretical maximum based on the current sea temperature, if the sea keeps on getting warmer the theoretical limit goes up.
Why do they always give hurricanes nice friendly names? They should name them after infamous criminals.
I'm thinking characters out of watership down
Why do they always give hurricanes nice friendly names? They should name them after infamous criminals.
Yeah, someone already suggested Hurricane Don up there. 🙂
I'm thinking snooker players.
Plywood all you need is enough sheets to cover the doors and windows, 1/2 inch is best not 12mm European stuff, it's technical term is " Redneck shuttering" 100% hurricane and tornado proof with a 5 yard guarantee.
Note if your house/trailer moves more than 5 yards you get a refund on the plywood
Looking at flight radar the worst must be past now in Mexico, but then a big chunk f the Gulf of Mexico and Florida is completely empty apart from 1 aircraft !
https://www.omao.noaa.gov/aircraft-operations/noaa-hurricane-hunters
After seeing that clip from earlier, you wouldn’t get me flying that bugger through the centre of that thing
Also this is nuts. The out edge of the storm is causing tornados. This was only a steady 55mph ? why do police people need to sit there in cars being put at risk?
I do find myself thinking
- Darwinism will win out over 'faith' (aka stupidity)
- the hoisting by their own petard, when it's those same climate-change-deniers that vote for the climate-change-deniers-party (as Floridians do), will be the ones devastated, and in some cases killed, as a result of climate change. (If only it happened before they bred, Darwinism would be working. But if they've already bred and their offspring fled to sow the stupid gene more widely, then it's not).