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Apologies if this is covered in some of the other Covid related threads...
But, given the good news that vaccines seem to be nearing viable reality, I'm curious to know what people think normal will look like in 6 months time?
Will we have learned anything from the months of lockdown? How will life have changed for the better, and for the worse? How quickly might it all happen? Johnson says normality by Easter, but I'm a bit dubious...
The other thing is, just how bad is the economic meltdown going to be? I am fortunate to have a decent and relatively secure job that I can do from home with no problem. From reading the news, I'm finding it hard to figure out just how bad things are - my point being (as a pessimist), I fear things are being understated and I want to understand where/how I can meaningfully help (as the govt will do SFA).
By end of next year it will be pretty much as though the virus never happened.
Loads of holidays, people back in the offices (driving in rush hour), business back up and running as the demand is still there (so people get jobs back in hospitality etc,.)
I don't think much will be learnt from it (i.e. missed opportunity for more home working) and people will be so relieved they won't really care.
On the economic front my armchair opinion is that much like many other economic downturns the effects are not universal. Some business and hence some people will be devastated. Other will not notice. Although the effected business will primarily be in specific sectors (e.g. hospitality) even this will not be even. There will be some that muddle though ok then bonce back strong and others will have no rod to recovery. I think this will depend a lot on the geography of the where the business is and their customers.
I always remember Bill Gates in the early '90s saying "the internet changes everything". Nobody really understood what he meant and could foresee how right he was.
Here goes: ... Covid changes everything.
I think Kerley is on the money.
Depends. We still don't know what we're trying to achieve with the vaccine. Will the vaccine prevent infections, or just make us immune if we're infected, but still able to catch the virus and pass it on? If the latter then are we going to continue to be so obsessed with the infection rate even if the deaths are virtually zero? Are we going to stop de-prioritising deaths from other causes, continuing to treating those with non-covid issues as expendable or acceptable 'collateral damage', and prioritising infections from COVID above all else and still drive to zero infections and zero deaths like we are which can only leads down to ever more strict lockdown measures and restrictions...if so the vaccine is unlikely to enable us to return back to normality in the context of getting our social freedoms back with zero restrictions.
Ultimately we need to get to a point were COVID is with us, just like seasonal flu where a level of annual deaths are tolerated. There has been a vaccine for Seasonal flu for decades, but still 10k - 20k people a year die from seasonal flu annually and that has been an acceptable level of annual deaths without any call for restrictions every winter and an voluntary vaccination programme. I'm not holding my breath. We'll see when the vaccines are rolled out what effect they have, but my suspicion and concern is that unless they are 100% effective in preventing deaths AND 100% effective in preventing anyone catching it and passing it on then we still have no roadmap out of restrictions and lockdown.
But hoping for the best and we can lift restrictions and crack on with our lives.
A year hence:
The retired demographic who benefited the most from everyone being locked down will continue to be well off with little increased costs / taxes.
The demographic who would likely have been less affected by covid* will shoulder increased taxes, reduced benefits - most likely pension/tax.
Front line/ public sector who continued working through the pandemic will shoulder the largest financial cost of repaying the "debt" through above taxation and also reduction in wages.
* don't think I'm anti lockdown, I think it was and continues to be the best course of action for wider society, I think the proportion of the cost should be in line with who benefited most from it.
Based on previous pandemics a big world wide economic boom. Uk however will have a Brexit slump.
Will the vaccine prevent infections, or just make us immune if we’re infected, but still able to catch the virus and pass it on?
If you are vaccinated then you are immune (or at least have a 90% chance of immune) If you are immune you can't pass it on.
There are two goals with vaccination, the first one is to control the current outbreak, the second is to reduce the number of susceptible people in the population so that the disease can't flare up again. If you do get one or two isolated cases it won't spread because most of the population is vaccinated.
There has been a vaccine for Seasonal flu for decades
Seasonal Flu is different, the flu virus readily mutates so vaccinations aren't that effective. A good flu vaccine has around 50% efficacy and only a small percentage of the population are vaccinated in any given year (although the UK actually has one of the highest rates). It means that every year there are still a high number of susceptible people for Flu to infect. Vaccination rates for Covid will be a lot higher than for Seasonal Flu.
Will we have learned anything from the months of lockdown? How will life have changed for the better, and for the worse? How quickly might it all happen?
I think most of next year might be a slow recovery. That said, some of our economy and jobs is in tatters, I still maintain that will leave a hangover. I also cannot see the vaccine being administered that quickly.
Will folk have learned? No. Memories are short. Pubs will be back open. Cars and waiting to be used. Holidays to book as we 'missed' this last year's trip. etc.
We then have of course the double whammy of Brexshit in 40 odd days.
I know I am a pessimist on this one, but...
Johnson says normality by Easter,
He also said 'moonshot' and 'best in the world' and 'level up' and 'Brexshit will be great'.
Although the effected business will primarily be in specific sectors (e.g. hospitality) even this will not be even. There will be some that muddle though ok then bonce back strong and others will have no rod to recovery.
It'll be the SMEs that will be devastated. Big multinationals will step in and replace them. Larger companies that fail will be hoovered up with money from China and Saudi.
The change will be a contraction of the middle class.
The optimist in me is that by the end of the year we'll be something like pre-Covid. I've got a few friends in New Zealand and, bar the lack of international travel, they are behaving like Covid isn't there.
I think the cat is out of the bag for home working, large amounts of people will be on a 50/50 split of home to office. I also suspect the days of smart dress are on their way out too, I work in the famously staid world of financial services and even we've abandoned suits and smart clothing, and that includes for the odd face-to-face meeting I had in the summer. Big conferences where you wander around a large hall collecting free notepads and stress balls whilst pretending to do deal will also die a death.
This will lead to a change in transport infrastructure. Less commuting means less cars, so could mean more bikes. It'll also impact how rail services are run, I suspect it'll all end up nationalised as I can't see how a TOC can run it profitably with the reduced passenger numbers.
Hospitality will be split. The lower end will survive and I suspect the high end will too, the mid-range places (think Cafe Rouge) will be stuffed.
I'm hoping we'll be left with a legacy of how important exercise and mental health are. it's been a theme throughout Covid that people are better when they can exercise and I hope that stays with us.
I also think we'll be left with a populous who has a fair degree if cynicism to the government, not sure if this is a good or a bad thing given the fun and games populism has given us over the last few years...
The change will be a contraction of the middle class.
And unemployment for many in the lower paid jobs, for many months or longer.
They'll be a big push to move to more home working - my company is up £10m by not having to pay for travel / hotels etc - guess it will depend on how much face to face the client wants though.
the rich poor divide will get bigger,
more people will choose to homework,
hopefully those stuck in the mud manager types will allow for more flexible working,
life's short live it..
ps. personally i'm going to make the effort to go into work more often, maybe once a fortnight.
Depends if the vaccines can be rolled to enough people worldwide for normal interaction to return, and if it actually delivers at the large scale.
Some businesses will bounce back, some will sadly fail. Consequences for individuals will vary widely in accordance.
More people will work more flexibly between home and office.
Public sector/keyworkers who were applauded for weeks on Thursday nights will become vilified with no increase in wages, certainly not in line with tax rises, as we were secure and able to work through with no redundancy threat and we should be grateful we have jobs. Though there will still be a lot of vacancies for these jobs despite their security and lucky status.
Brexit will cause no disruption, it will all be down to coronavirus and people's failure to prepare.
I think the cat is out of the bag for home working, large amounts of people will be on a 50/50 split of home to office.
Absolutely, or even 70/30.
It's been a large-scale, long and overall successfuyl experiment in homeworking. No way will everyone just go back to normal. Especially as firms can save serious money on commercial property rental.
I think events will probably be back on by summer. Not quite sure about festivals or nightclubs, but with the vaccines being deployed from next month - you never know.
unemployment for many in the lower paid jobs, for many months or longer.
This^^ ,and Brexit will be the shit flavoured icing on the big 2021 recovery cake,it's already (allegedly) oven-ready.
Since we can't really know and the last 9 months have been brutally bleak, I'm going to list some potential positives. Beware, I am a massive optimist so you may find some of them utterly ridiculous! But it's cathartic for me to type them out and hopefully for others to read.
1. Being separated from family, friends and loved ones will help us appreciate those people more. The parties will be legendary 😉
2. Generally, public support for difficult measures has been high. People have overlooked their self interest in favour of acting towards a wider common goal. Support has been stronger than expected, this will help the government be bolder in strategy on the environment.
3. Because it's been safer and on the tiny list of things you can do, loads of people have spent time in the outdoors. This would be good for the health of wider society and could raise the profile of outdoor pursuits.
4. WFH has been proved a success for plenty of individuals and businesses. Further support gives individuals a better work/life balance, businesses a more productive workforce and removes a lot of unnecessary journeys.
5. Communities have stepped up to support each other, developing new ways of offering local goods and services to people. This should inspire people to re-invest in community projects and treasure the amenities they have.
The U.S. is headed to an utter catastrophe, their covid deaths are back to an exponential explosion and a lot of people are ignoring it for Thanksgiving. Many hospitals are already short on IC beds and the Thanksgiving surge is going to hit just before Christmas. The death toll in January is going to be massive. That means that lockdowns will be imposed. The U.S. economy is the largest in the world, but the Senate will probably be controlled by Republicans who will insist on strict austerity to try and get the huge deficits under control. A lot of people working in retail and travel industries will be unable to pay the rent or mortgages, so quite likely the U.S. will have another severe recession, which will create a huge drag on the rest of the world. I can't see things getting back to normal in just a few months.
, I think the proportion of the cost should be in line with who benefited most from it.
For every pensioner with a generous final salary pension there are probably half a dozen who solely rely on the state pension of £8k ish a year. The triple lock guarentee has been credited with reducing pensioner poverty, so it's not the universally rich seam you think it is. Plus it's only going to get worse as final salary pensions die out and new pensioners retire with even less.
As a general rule people should give in proportion to their means and receive in proportion to their needs, regardless of demographic.
unemployment for many in the lower paid jobs, for many months or longer.
This is just continuing a trend which has been rapidly growing over the last few years, the rise of zero hour contracts and employing all your staff as self employed sub contractors.
Simple to fix, just change employment legislation to outlaw those practices.
I spotted that the OP asks about what normal will look like in 6 months' time, which of course is the end of April. This means my answer is different to what it might be in, say, 2-3 years' time.
By April 2021, I think we might be at the tail end of another surge of CoVID infections. While we will have a vaccination programme underway, it won't be complete - and so levels of immunity won't have risen sufficiently for there to be the low levels of impact that we are all hoping for. Some restrictions and lockdowns could still therefore be with us in April, along with things like mask-wearing, widespread testing, isolation etc. However, by then the management tools will be diminishing in effectiveness as some people's patience frays.
So, I think we will see more of what other posters are prophesying later than 6 months' time.
I think it will take 5 years to not instinctively move away from each other when in close proximity; for the natural ease of handshakes and even hugs of strangers to return. Taken together with the effects of more isolated lives during lockdown, I think this means that individual space and comforts will be important for some time to come. Subtle psychological effects will build and reinforce cars as a default choice for many people when they do choose to travel, despite the increasing attractiveness / popularity of local walking and cycling. I can see local public transport being squeezed in between cars, active travel and newer e- or internet-powered on demand options.
Local public spaces and high streets outside of city centres will really flourish as people spend more time closer to home thanks to home working. Conversely, those places that are car-dependent and are built so that they can't readily have local shopping and leisure (e.g. some postwar housing developments) will face some fundamental questions about their design. Out-of-town retails parks will consolidate very quickly into large "destination" centres - and will otherwise be abandoned and decay much like some parts of industry did from the 1960s onwards.
If it's true about companies not wanting to pay for large offices, then that will result in a slump in commercial property and rent values. However investment in property is a large part of investment funds AFAIK in the UK so one would assume that this means they will look to invest in other things. I wonder if other industries would benefit from this? Would it have an economic benefit?
If you are vaccinated then you are immune (or at least have a 90% chance of immune) If you are immune you can’t pass it on.
My thought is that this means that we artificially achieve the magic >60% herd immunity at which time the virus really struggles to spread. Obvs that might be rubbish.
It's a shame the Oxford vaccine isn't more effective, but I guess the Pfizer vaccine will be given to the more at risk of the population and "the youngsters" (i.e. younger than, say, 55) will get the AZ vaccine.
I think it will take 5 years to not instinctively move away from each other when in close proximity; for the natural ease of handshakes and even hugs of strangers to return.
Strangely I don't hug strangers!
Shaking hands will take a quite a while to return, hand gel sales will remain strong and mask wearing in public will be seen as not as odd as it did 12 months ago.
thehols2 perspective is interesting, and if you look at the first graph on this coronadata website the levels of infection there are truly staggering so his asessment may not be far wrong. I check in with the data most days, it's like a car crash, horrible but you kind of have to look anyway.
This is said with a fair bit of tongue in cheek but, I think the world is (to some degree) going in a way as depicted by 80 and 90s movies. Most likely as I was born in 71 so those are influential years however films like Demolition Man, Total Recall and a few others have scenes are scenarios not a million miles from today or where we are heading.
I can see the world being similar to this - nothing is wrong and we are all living in harmony on the surface, with a whole opposite world underneath.
Virus wise - people adapt to a degree but also become nonchalant and dismissive of authority they can't see the value in. We are now in a state where most have adopted a different way of life and a lot are rebelling against it (intentionally or otherwise) by 'not really' keeping to advised protocols about distancing etc.
Because of this we will evolve and not really go back to what life was like 12 months ago. A vaccine will help bring it back with large social gatherings etc, but there will always be somebody watching for the next virus, which will bring about quicker and more decisive actions in the future - be them right or wrong.
Ultimately we'll go so far down a rabbit hole with technology that we'll all be scared of our own shadow and end up living in virtual chambers on spaceships, whilst the earth rots away from all the damage we've done.
Oh bugger, that's Wall-E 😀
/must stop watching films
More home working for those who can (with some stuff on site - i hope).
Fingers crossed more focus on the natural world and being outside in it
I hope there will be a continuation of people actually caring about other (it does exist despite some.
Def a continuation of some sort of social distancing.
A way better international emerging outbreaks monitoring process, changes in healthcare and how it works.
I'm being optimistic.
Six months, that puts us late May. I think even without a vaccine we'd be back to near normality regardless, like we were this May.
I wrote a huge long reply to this, going into too much detail of my theories anyway in short(er).
The people of the world want this to go away, so it will, even if it doesn't. Lots of people have already said it, but Covid19 will continue to kill people, mostly old people at the end of their lives forever more. This, is, normal.
If, the likes of Yaxley-Lennon, Farage and Hopkins don't decide they can further line their pockets by creating a 'credible sounding opinion' that the vaccines are dangerous/unnecessary/hoax they will drive down deaths and admissions to the point of normal coronaviruses and we'll all be free to live our lives again. I noticed that tosser Lawrence Fox started down that road at the weekend. Honestly, they've collectively causes so much damage in the last couple of years, I'd line them all up against the wall for trying it again.
There will likely be another huge push in Sept/Oct to vaccinate again, people will be less keen given how normal life will be by then, the Government will threaten a lockdown and people will likely fall into line.
Economically, there's no escaping the fact we've spent billions on Covid so far, I don't know how they're going to tackle that, I think it's estimated to cost £210bn by the time it ends, there are around 30m people in the UK who pay income tax via any method so that's about £7k per tax payer, or £3k per person. That's not an easy bill to pay. There's a theory that we could save half of that by cancelling Brexit, which seems a nice idea, but I think we've gone too far down that road now, but maybe that's what the Gov are talking about then they're saying things like "full economic cost, and no return to austerity"? I think we'll end up in the Common Market in all but name, Biden winning being as much as factor as Covid.
As for the wider economy, for those of us who aren't directly affected by the current restrictions, we'll probably be fine considering, those of us who are, it's going to be a bumpy few years, especially for the travel industry, they've survived by deferring as much as they could until 2021, but you can't sell the same thing twice. Usually Boxing day marks the kick-off for Holiday booking, but everyone I know already has their 2021 plans in place.
As for day to day lives. I can't see how this won't have a permanent effect on us somehow, even if it's minor. We all laugh when Oldies panic buy Milk and Bread at the first hint of sleet, but they do that because they remember the big snows of the 60s and 70s that most of us largely don't. I would like to see the habit of wearing masks when you've got a cold catching on like they do in Asia.
If it’s true about companies not wanting to pay for large offices, then that will result in a slump in commercial property and rent values. However investment in property is a large part of investment funds AFAIK in the UK so one would assume that this means they will look to invest in other things
Commercial property in the UK is roughly 800bn and the total stock market is approx 3.3tn and some overlap between the two. Obviously the property won't become worthless, just worth a bit less, so not a huge change overall to pensions etc. Most pensions wouldn't have more than 20% invested in property funds. The big insurers, who pay the annuities, will probably be hit hardest as they tend to buy long term assets that bring in modest regular incomes like utilities / commercial property.
I'm certainly much less optimistic than 90% of people. Maybe something that resembles our previous social lives by 2022. Next year will be tough, I don't think we will see light at the end of the tunnel until summer time and even then, we will only be starting to relax. The real truth is many of us wont make it to next year and beyond.
Going with Kerleys prediction, the rest of Europe will change but the British won't because they're car and status obsessed ****s who will show up to the office just because of those two points.
The real truth is many of us wont make it to next year and beyond.
Blimey, that certainly is less optimistic!
But, given the good news that vaccines seem to be nearing viable reality, I’m curious to know what people think normal will look like in 6 months time?
Will we have learned anything from the months of lockdown? How will life have changed for the better, and for the worse? How quickly might it all happen? Johnson says normality by Easter, but I’m a bit dubious
There's no way you'll be back to normal by easter. Care home populations, critical healthcare staff etc will have been vaccinated, but I'd fully expect a 3rd wave around that time, because people will be even more frustrated than now, start to get complacent (because there's a vaccine) and - here's my prediction - there will be so many cases in Schools (<18s not getting vaccine!) that exams will be disrupted in May resulting in political chaos again! By the end of the summer everyone >55 who wants it will have been vaccinated (and possible <55 with high clinical risk), but 18-55s will still not - Universities will return and have another 'Freshers wave' before Christmas 2021 being more normal.
My business unit are never going back to working from the office full time. We are downsizing the physical space and going to use it as a "meeting hub" but ordinarily 75%+ of us will be at home each day. The saving on travel costs, eating lunch in town and the tax relief from WFH means we estimate most of our staff have had a ~£2k pay increase at no cost to the company.
Hopefully, the UK might also be a little more hygiene aware and better prepared for the next pandemic, although I doubt that. It is almost inevitable that this is not the last time we face a threat like this in our lifetimes.
It’s a shame the Oxford vaccine isn’t more effective, but I guess the Pfizer vaccine will be given to the more at risk of the population and “the youngsters” (i.e. younger than, say, 55) will get the AZ vaccine.
Its interesting how that data is presented though (and 70% would have been considered amazing before anyone said 95% was possible!). They said 70% with treatment regime 1, and 90% with regime 2. And it gets reported as up to 70%! I bet if the commercial guys had been involved rather than the academics they's have worded it other way round.
The real truth is many of us wont make it to next year and beyond.
Blimey, that certainly is less optimistic!
Yes, I did read that and think WTF, that's a bit 'glass half empty'.
I reckon in a year from now it'll be pretty much back to normal, unemployment still up a couple of percent.....
It’s a shame the Oxford vaccine isn’t more effective, but I guess the Pfizer vaccine will be given to the more at risk of the population and “the youngsters” (i.e. younger than, say, 55) will get the AZ vaccine.
Its interesting how that data is presented though (and 70% would have been considered amazing before anyone said 95% was possible!). They said 70% with treatment regime 1, and 90% with regime 2. And it gets reported as up to 70%! I bet if the commercial guys had been involved rather than the academics they’s have worded it other way round.
I think the Devil will be in the detail.
If it stops 70% of people getting it in the first place, but the remaining 30% have very mild symptoms as their immune system gets a head-start, that would seem perfectly good to me.
These are only Gen 1 vaccines too, research will continue. Pfizer will be working on making theirs cheaper to mass-produce and easier to transport / store, Oxford will be working on making theirs more effective.
I think they're reporting it 70% because of the odd way because of the odd regime differences, based on 20k people, giving a half-size dose on the first one, makes it more effective... it seems so counter-intuitive that I think it seems more like a statistical error.
I would say aside the obvious issues of people dying, the economic impact of covid will be minimal long term. Pumping billions into the economy and peoples hands directly will have countered the worst effects. We'll bounce mack quicker than the economists say I would think.
Until you factor brexit in that is. That has no upside to counter the downside. So economically its still not looking great even when you're bullish on Covid.
Hopefully everyone will bugger off abroad on the holidays, and it will be safe to cycle on the NC500 roads again.
Edit: Forgot, Bah Humbug! 🙂
I don't think anybody has mentioned the effect of all this on people's mental stability especially medical staff.
We are only in the second lockdown but the effect on many people has been devastating. Once rates come down I foresee legions of nurses and doctors retiring due to ill health and becoming patients themselves. The legacy of Covid will be mental illness lasting as long as those people live, especially diseases like Alzheimer's which is known to be more common in people over 65 who have suffered prolonged periods of severe stress and depression. I can even see a cruel new term being coined such as "Covid Crazy" or similar to describe those sufferers.
Possibly worse will be the loss of all that accumulated knowledge and wisdom in the medical professions especially freshly-learned knowledge on dealing with pandemics.
I don’t think anybody has mentioned the effect of all this on people’s mental stability especially medical staff.
It's discussed pretty much most days on all forms of media, and is very real, I agree.
The rest of your post is a bit much, legions and covid crazy in particular.
from a personal perspective I'll have probably lost my job, ironically with the NHS as (non Covid) lab work is moved to another trust.
Socially wise I think I'll still avoid people but do a lot of the rides I'd planned for this year & might have time for more (see previous)
Hopefully people will realise Christmas isn't all that and we can get on without it
As has been said this pandemic is going to have a lot of long term effects across the board.
this is where we need to make government support and improve the nhs to allow the effects to be minimised
Will we have learned anything from the months of lockdown? How will life have changed for the better, and for the worse?
We'll have learnt sweet FA....
The realisation that the system we all adhere to is so fragile and essentially broken will for the majority be forgotten as soon as they can go out and spend money on things that do nothing for anyone other than a short lived feel good factor and further turning the wheels of capitalism.
The gap between the have and have nots will grow. It already is. The likes of Adidas not paying rent whilst the small intersport places continue to do is just one example.
Many small businesses are already ****ed whilst the likes of Amazon/Besos continue to rake it in.
Small businesses have and will suffer due to economies of scale and lockdown rules that don't benefit them.
Can't see poorer countries getting their hands on enough vaccines to reduce covid numbers enough that they can return to normal. Just have a look at which countries have bought up vaccines already.
Those who can work from home (generally the middle class) will likely continue to do for a few days a week (admittedly with with benefits for the environment/traffic and those workers), but likely causing further job cuts in low paid service industries because those WFHers are not out at lunch or after work spending. It's all swings and roundabouts, but for every action there is a reaction. Winners and losers.
The last ten years I've been working on the event industry. Everything from Large conferences and trade fairs all over Europe, product launches to small private parties. Not had a single event job since March. Had a few studio jobs, but soon everyone is going to have their studio for livestreaming that no one needs a studio. The event industry is screwed. Maybe, seen from an environmental perspective, that's not such a bad thing. The amount of waste and travel involved is crazy. I'm fortunate that my skills are in demand elsewhere, but for the tech guys (vidiots), lighting, caterers, logistic, and other associated branches the picture is bleak.
Even after the miraculous vaccines are out there companies will have realised they don't need to spend thousands on fancy events or trade fairs when they can stream direct to their customers.
Essentially the system that we all adhere to needs to change. This would have been a great time for some deep navel gazing and introspective thought, but humans are creatures of habit.
Some things will change for sure. There will be a move to people preferring to holiday away from the masses, to keep their distance from strangers. This is good news for quirky, remote BnBs and campsites, less so for mass tourist markets. People will be less inclined to travel by public transport leading to an increase in car usage (I notice traffic levels in Munich are back up where they were this time last year despite a large percentage working from home.... The City recently said to avoid public transport) leading to an increase in private car usage and thus congestion and shit air quality.
New Zealand and, bar the lack of international travel, they are behaving like Covid isn’t there.
That's because it is gone. One of the perks of being an isolated island nation at the end of the world.
Look at the trends for the last decades since that last big war, no not that one the Big one, no not that one either, the one where Europe stopped trying to kill itself and work together.
Why does the World feel worse?
Health is generally up
Wealth is generally up
Happiness is generally down (if you exclude the war years)
People feel less trustful of official messages
The youth don't associate with their parents ideals
Was that written now, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago?
Poorer nations won't bother buying vaccine for mass innoculation, it will only be for the wealthy top few percent.
My former colleague who lives in Nigeria tells me very few people bother about Covid. The reason? Fifty percent of Nigeria's population is under 18, only 3 percent make it past 60. Life is already full of things that can kill you so why worry and Christian or Muslim there's a fair degree of religious fatalism as well - if it's God's will, what can I do?
In the longer term the NHS will change; the unwillingness of politicians to recognise, reward and support those people who are working harder than ever will lead to those people stepping outside the NHS and working for agencies.
This in turn will grant more power and influence to agencies who provide staff and soon enough, those staff and agencies will take over the running of various departments within hospitals. I suspect this will occur in specialised areas at first; Theatre depts, Intensive Care units and the like.
This will lead in turn to the slow but inexorable diminution of the rights of those people, in terms of job protection, pension rights, terms of service and so on.
The NHS will pay more on a day to day basis for the services of people but the State will ultimately pay less because of the lack of need to provide pensions and other support.
20 years from now we will end up with a Health Service that is run by the State but is provided by private organisations in terms of staffing and equipment hire, PFI writ large...
There will never be a vaccine for Brexit unfortunately.
I am optimistically predicting that basically everything I didn't like about 2019 will be faithfully restored, while as much as possible of the damage done in 2020 to small businesses, healthcare, low income workers etc will be left as is. With the added benefit that we can now officially treat NHS staff as expendable, and stick the "NHS" logo on rubbish services provided at high price by the private sector to deflect any criticism. In fact the advances in corruption are far greater than anyone could have hoped.
I think they’re reporting it 70% because of the odd way because of the odd regime differences, based on 20k people, giving a half-size dose on the first one, makes it more effective… it seems so counter-intuitive that I think it seems more like a statistical error.
On the contrary, it made perfect sense to me, (I’m no scientist, but I have a layman’s understanding). Giving a half-dose gets the body’s immune system prepared for the effect of the C19 spikes when they enter the body, while the second full dose gets the primed system up and working fully; giving a full dose to start with doesn’t work any better because the immune system still has to develop a response, it can’t go from zero to flat-out.
The other, big advantage is that give a half-dose means supplies go twice as far, treating twice as many people for half the cost, while allowing stocks of the full strength dose to build up.
Then there’s the cost benefit, it’s about $3-4 a dose, against $15-25 for the other vaccines, and it can be stored in an ordinary fridge, or for a couple of days at room temperature. It’s a win-win, as far as I can see.
A lot of firms will move to wfh. The middle class will continue to shrink in income terms but people might still imagine themselves to be 'a cut above'. Current expenditure plans on eg arms will not be reflationary due to the capital intensive skilled labour force with a lower likelihood of increasing spending in line with increasing income. Inflation arising from devaluation will eat into incomes. The NHS is a very large employer and the government will be very wary of giving them a reasonable rise due to wages drift. The PLP will provide no opposition and the party will continue with splits, allegations, apologies and expulsions because of the loyalties expressed by SKS. More people will see a role for militant trades unionism and street protests.
House builders will be given free reign to put up unaffordable bland newbuild boxes (maybe leasehold) everywhere. Some landlords will be selling property, (overseas?) investors who've had their fingers burnt over city-centre newbuild towerblocks will be looking to buy strings of residential properties to let out. There will be an increased demand for rental property from people who lost their mortgage and this will burden the benefit system.
Food standards will go down and like 2008, supermarkets will introduce 'new lines' that before were only sold in E Europe. Shoes made out of 'faux' will be more common.
Lockdowns will have made people reflect on their patterns of expenditure. With reduced income, flashing those notes in the restaurant or down the pub will seem a bit daft and poor vfm. More people have learnt to shop around online. In terms of reflating the economy, the government haven't really got a plan or a clue (and certainly not MMT). There's no way they will invest in labour-intensive or job creating industries, money will continue to go to their mates (subsidies to the racing industry cf amateur boxing) who will save it, squirrel it abroad or buy imported goods.
I see significant regional variations with a lot of misdirected anger but a significant rise in political consciousness as well as reactionary cynicism. The question will be which organisation can place itself at the front of the groundswell of disaffection, or not. Like with all crises, the system gobbles up the weak, increases the wealth of a very few and continues with austerity.
Poorer nations won’t bother buying vaccine for mass innoculation, it will only be for the wealthy top few percent.
They'll be cheap generic version available and billions from the Gates foundation to help pay for delivery and distribution....
Once the rich west has paid for theirs, the prices will plummet....
Cheap vaccines for the 3rd world...
@BillMC
You've gone a bit OTT on the TLAs there.
I understand WFH and NHS; but could you please explain PLP, SKS and MMT?
By 2022 we'll be partying like its 1999.
I will add another one: there is going to be a huge teacher recruitment and training crisis. I think we are wearing teachers and early years educators into the ground at the moment. While many of us recognise and applaud NHS and care staff, I think there is a 'blindness' to the efforts in education and zero funding for it.
Fast forward a few months and years and we will see many people leaving, broken by the work, the lack of support from Government and a general 'brokenness' felt by many over this time.
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
Beg your pardon, I wasn't trying to be poncey, honest:
Parliamentary Labour Party, Sir KS and Modern Monetary Theory
So basically, whether you're an optimist or a pessimist, socialist or capitalist, it's going to more of what you thought the Pre-Covid world was.
With added Brexity Goodness ™
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
You're obviously an optimist 😉
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
You’re obviously an optimist 😉
I predict half the GDP and the bonus ball says - double ye olde un employe ment!
The 70% efficacy is the intent to treat analysis. The only one that matters. AZ will struggle to justify the lower dose due to the unplanned nature. Normally it would be “hypothesis generating” and confirmed by another trial.
Once the rich west has paid for theirs, the prices will plummet….
GSK have said theirs will be cost plus a little bit for more research. See malaria. There will be plenty of vaccines for the whole world. I am in no doubt.
As for normal. I predict the economy will bounce back faster than people think. Taxes may go up a little. Inflation may rise. But by end of 2022 we’ll be back to where we were. Perhaps with more people working at home more. People and systems revert to type.