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Sweepstake time
How many votes will Maybot lose by tomorrow ?
(650 MPs in the house 316 Tories, 10 DUP,
35 SNP,11 LD, 256 Labour, 4PC, 8 others)
Anyone think there's some sort of chance that she will win ?
Closest gets a Daily Express commemorative Brexit Day shilling
I go for lose by 169 votes
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*(yeah I know, another politics thread, so let's just stick to a number)**
Lose by 75
It won't go ahead. She'll have someone set off the fire alarm.
I’m actually really worried that there will be a mass choke, loads of MPs will bottle it and she’ll scrape it by about 10 votes.
Lose by 52 votes
I reckon she'll postpone it again. She's genuinely shameless and there'll be some spurious guff about clarifying things further with the EU.
I think she’ll pull it at the 11th hour again.
Apparently government is now a game of chicken
More Suprised the lib dems have 11 mps...
Im going 50+ or the fire alarm went off option.
Is one of the 3 lab votes for it, Jezza?
69 dude!
Another vote for her bottling it and claiming it was all in her horoscope tea leaves.
The dog will eat Mr Tusk's letter. 200+ for a serious answer.
A win by 25 votes.
yeah I reckon it'll be cancelled again!
I think 50 to a hundred, pretty sure there will be some abstentions.
People thought that the Tories would lose the last election, Trump had no chance as did majority for Article 52 in the referendum. I wouldn't be shocked.
I think it'll go ahead. She'll loose and the whole Brexit thing grinds to a halt and doesn't happen. It'll be her opportunity to blame parliment and not the government for failing to deliver Brexit. It's what I'm kinda hope happens, but I'm usually wrong 🙁
She's going to fake a heart attack then nuke em from orbit, it's the only way to be sure.
Lose by 81 votes.
Come division time, plenty of loud mouth no-vote MP's will simply soil themselves.
I think it'll pass. Just. ****s sake I hope so, just sick of it, just get on with it
170,pull.the vote and no confidence by a narrow majority.
Leftfield part.... Vince cable and kier stammer running the show by Monday
I reckon by 60-80 votes. Anything over about 120-150 could mean her resigning but I can't see her going. Then Corbyn will go for the no confidence vote (with all the tories and DUP behind her - they aren't that stupid) and lose. Then he'll hopefully realise that Brexit is not his mean to get into power and he should be aiming for the best Brexit for labour or a second referendum.
I reckon she'll wear a low cut top, and all the Tory 'bittys' will cream themselves, spaffin their loads, and vote for her deal.
Lose by 122. I don’t think it should count for the shilling if you put a range - that’s just a cop out!!
Looks like lots of Labour will abstein. I reckon she may well just squeak it through. bbc were showing tweets/quotes from some labour mps saying they will back it.
I’m also afraid that she will just squeak through, or be close enough to still continue with the process.
Over the past few years I have done quite well betting against the consensus on politics (Referendum, Trump, GE etc), so I have put a few quid (£8) on her getting over 300 votes... £70 to £250 coming my way if she does.
She'll win it by 20 votes
I think the abstainers should be sacked.
They were voted in to do a job...make a decision either way.
You can't be in business in the private sector and abstain from issues affecting your company.
Anyway, a number you say. Lose by 20.
Thinking about it more sensibly, looking to the last vote to force her to present a plan b within 3 days, not 20 odd.. A majority of 7 on a pretty full house..
The number of potential abstentions may well be the decider here and swing it in her favour. Labour Party, I'm looking at you.
Anyone think there’s some sort of chance that she will win ?
There’s always a chance.
Leavers, more than anything want to leave, they vote for it, we leave and it’ll be easier to change terms when we’ve left (this is obviously nonsense as we lose vote and veto powers etc, but in Leaver Land black is white etc).
Remainders really don’t want a hard Brexit, the deal does retain some of the benefits of membership and there’s always the option to apply to rejoin later. If May loses tomorrow she may resign, leaving the PM job open to a BoJo or some other dick to try for an 11th hour deal and hard Brexit, she may call for a general election and Corbyn is a leaver maybe, just maybe a second vote and it’s not as clear cut as some would like you to think Remain would win... all the polls said remain would win last time.
She'll lose by 35 votes.
When the Brexiteers realise that's the size of the SNP, they'll vote to throw Scotland out of the UK, thus ensuring a cast iron Brexit. 🙂
We live in hope, Brian. 😊
Hilary Benn will ruin it for her and the vote won't happen. It's all in the hands of Mr Bercow.
Oh yeah, forgot about labour abstentions
Eh wtf you onabout...brexival is going ahead....it has to....without a vote win there won't be a brexival
102
Currently 16 /1 with Corals that she gets 300+ votes.
I'll have a few pounds on that.
She'll win by somewhere between 20 and 50.
Shower of ****s.
Well to be honest, being perpetually tied to the EU isn't the worst thing that can happen, I'd happily trust thier 27 minds against our 1 based on what I've seen from our 1.
Although ideally I'd like the deal to fail followed by an emergency cross party government and a retraction of a50.
I don't belive a second referendum or a GE is useful as with either we'll be faced with exactly the same stalemate rather than any kind of solution.
I also put a bet on her getting it through, quite a while ago.
Just looking at the Brexit specials at the bookies now. Food rationing being introduced in the U.K. this year is 13/1
Double post thingy is back, I see
Did you ever thing you could get odds on food rationing in the uk
I wonder when they will try and stop us all leaving?
Did you ever thing you could get odds on food rationing in the uk
You can gets on far more preposterous things than that.
She'll lose it by 10 votes....Arlene will be most pleased
People thought that the Tories would lose the last election, Trump had no chance as did majority for Article 52 in the referendum.
Did everyone miss the first bit of this one? Absolutely no one thought the Tories would lose the last election!
I will go for a 95 point loss.
I think it’ll go ahead. She’ll loose and the whole Brexit thing grinds to a halt and doesn’t happen. It’ll be her opportunity to blame parliment and not the government for failing to deliver Brexit.
This. Several ive talked to believe this will happen ans we’ll stay in Europe with May blaming the opposition.
She loses by 100+.
No-one thought the Tories would lose the last election? Speak for yourself. I had twenty quid on a hung parliament at 5/1 😃
This. Several ive talked to believe this will happen ans we’ll stay in Europe with May blaming the opposition.
She loses by 100+.
I’d be happy with that, but despite all the lies and all the cheating from the Leave campaign, if, somehow we step back from Brexit - we (the UK) has to change its relationship with the EU. Not in terms of laws but how we communicate. The major parties can’t go back to ignoring the EU elections, they can’t go back to blaming the EU for every bit of unpleasant legislation they want to pass and as much it’s distastful we have to accept a lot of Britons, millions of them have an issue with immigration, migration and accepting refugees that have passed through a dozen safe first world countries to reach ours.
If we don’t leave, be it by a act of parliament or second referendum, we can’t just say “get over it, you lost” and go back to business as usual, it won’t work anymore than it worked during the last 3 years.
We could certainly look at not having MEPs like nigel farrage who turn up to do thier jobs twice a year if we are lucky, only to offend everyone whilst putting it all on expenses whilst telling the home crowd he's 'protecting our fishing rights'.
Has he got German citizenship yet? The duplicitous...
In a similar sentiment, Andrew Rawnsley was saying in Sunday’s Observer how this farce has shown the limits of our unwritten constitution, and whatever happens, our entire parliamentary system needs a full overhaul as it is no longer fit for purpose in the 21st century
Given the present total shambles, it’s difficult to argue against that
I get a horrible feeling that she'll win the vote.
One thing's for sure, if she loses the vote and Labour put forward the vote of no confidence, they'll still never end up in power with Corbyn leading them.
Agreed, corbyn is useless. They need someone like starmer in charge, corbyn is a political barrier to any kind of progress in the Labour Party.
I unfasionably vote liberal democrat.
Well for so many MP's this is the now or never moment.
For the hard **** em brexiters take May's deal and you have sold out to a future of never really leaving. you might get another stab at it but the credibility will be gone once more reality bites.
For the Tory remainers, it's a gamble to stop it and risk an election and take what you can.
For the Labour leavers and remainers this is the shot to get rid of the tories
For the lib dems and SNP it's the one shot to stop Brexit
For May's supporters, well she can choose how she votes.
None of them will get another chance at this. They should all know this.
Lose by 71. Somehow we'll end up with another referendum. We'll vote remain and the whole sorry episode will be dismissed in future years as a wild legend with as much truth as that bloke who chucked a ring into a volcano.
Betfair currently have 29/1 on the vote being passed.
This vote has the longest odds for a political event I have bet on... I am really hoping that I don’t win, but it will pay for some beer stockpiling if I do.
She will win with 55 votes, my random generated number has as much validity as any poll.
No-one thought the Tories would lose the last election? Speak for yourself.
As I recall, you were predicting Armageddon for Labour until quite late on.
I underestimated just how truly awful May was. Shoved the bet on about 2 weeks before the election, as the true scale of her hopelessness became apparent.
Corbyn could never win a general election, obviously, so a hung parliament seemed about right. I also had money on us booting out our sitting Tory MP at 3/1 so quite a lucrative night
93 vote loss
Lose by 23 votes. Hedging with a bet is a mice earner but we will all be poorer in the long run. In fact we already are!
Not enough for her to tender her resignation.
Didn't realise they could abstain.....as said above they should have to vote one way or the other.
Think she'll lose by 35.
Enough Labour MPs will abstain that she'll scrape across the line by 5.
99 vote loss.
I'm assuming that all the talk in the media about losing by 200 is to make a two figure loss not look like resignation time… so they must be expecting high double figures.
scotroutes
Member
Enough Labour MPs will abstain that she’ll scrape across the line by 5.
Not likely... But if it happens, it should be resignation time, this isn't something an MP can just step back from.
Time for this again.
I won £500 on the ref vote last time. Spent it on a holiday in France.
I predict another delay.
Anyone think there maybe a proper party split/breakaway coming out of this?
Lose by 130. Lots of Torys will wriggle and either abstain or flip. A few labour MP’s will do a Dianne Abbot and claim they had a dodgy pickled egg and be too “ill” to vote.
With my past record on these things-said the referendum would be remain etc- she’ll scrape it
She's not going to win. Even the people who've said they will back her don't believe she will win.
Defeated by 89
Loose by 45
Draw, settled by a fight to the death with Corbyn.
Abstaining on such an important vote is descusting.
Well I don't know how much of an indicator the Lord's result is (you know that one that appears no-where on the Beeb's Brexit page) but if it's similar she's going to get a right mauling.
Speaking of the Lord's, here's Betty.
Abstaining on such an important vote is disgusting.
That it may be, but that has not stopped people in the past and will not stop them now.
Lose by 75
Abstaining on such an important vote is descusting.
Do you believe that regardless of which way they would vote if they had to? e.g. a labour MP who is not opposed to May's deal, but who prefers to abstain to help his party potentially trigger a vote of no confidence; or a tory who really doesn't like the deal but is terrified that the consequences of May losing are either Borris or Jezza as PM?
I don't see the problem in principal with abstaining.
Same with spoilt ballot papers in an election.
The questions are very binary, should someone with only a slight leaning one way or the other have the same weight attached to their vote as someone who passionately believes either for or against?
With some questions it's a very definite yes/no and the consensus is found by tabling amendments to adjust the motion until is passes. E.g. PM wants a full on war with Forexampleistan and loses, an amendment is tabled to send a smaller force of marines with air support to back up a local insurgency and that passes, or not and a further amendment is tabled which amounts to a strongly worded letter.
This one's a bit different as there isn't (on the table at least) any scope to amend it without going back to the EU. So having a 3rd way to vote is important for those who don't like the deal strongly enough but don't want to be counted as the opposition to it as that gives the wrong mandate e.g. the European Research Group must be troubled over effectively being counted as backing Corbyn and vice versa a lot of remainer MP's don't want to risk handing power to the ERG.
That's exactly what happened in the referendum, the country was split near enough 1/2 and 1/2, which could be argued to show that the status quo is very near to being the consensus (48% of people like the EU and perhaps want closer ties, 52% want less to do with it). Which would mean a minor renegotiation might be in order to ballance it perfectly. Instead it's taken as a mandate to try and get a deal that's probably closer to what the 75th percentile would have wanted, so now 3/4 the country hates it.
I get a horrible feeling that she’ll win the vote.
Not a chance. But she will bring it back on a weekly basis, manoeuvring to prevent any discussion or voting on alternatives, until a minute to midnight before 29 March at which point the opponents will fold for fear of a no-deal, and pass it. And they call that "leadership".
Not a chance. But she will bring it back on a weekly basis, manoeuvring to prevent any discussion or voting on alternatives, until a minute to midnight before 29 March at which point the opponents will fold for fear of a no-deal, and pass it. And they call that “leadership”.
Na, the EU has previous in getting countries to re-run referendums if it wants a different result. I reckon they would just make no-deal politically untenable by offering to extend the deadline at the last minute which would leave may with two options, keep voting on her deal or amendments to it, or give up, and I suspect the political entropy tends towards a second referendum (keeping with the thermodynamic metaphor, her deal is merely a local minimum, an equilibrium state with such low activation energy to revert back that's it's fundamentally unstable, and no deal is a final state with such a high activation energy that's it's impossible without a catalyst).