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Your attempt to pull up figures without showing the current direction of travel is infantile.
Well branes, the 2019 result was a higher share of the vote than they achieved in 2015, and you'll also be aware that 2017 was their best vote share since 2001. That's right - their best performance in 16 years, under the dreadful Mr Corbyn.
As you might put it yourself, attempting to develop a narrative based on two data points is amateurish.
If you want to try and twist the facts to suit your agenda, you're going to need to make a much better effort than that pathetic attempt.
So, perhaps someone else can explain why the usual suspects are so worried about a seat that has been solidly Labour since it was created in 1974.
the 2019 result was a higher share of the vote than they achieved in 2015, and you’ll also be aware that 2017 was their best vote share since 2001.
He's not wrong...
So, perhaps someone else can explain why the usual suspects are so worried about a seat that has been solidly Labour since it was created in 1974.
Because look at the Tory + Brexit share last time. Most of those Brexit Party votes will go to Johnsons Vote Leave Conservatives. Do you think otherwise?
Because look at the Tory + Brexit share last year. Most of those Brexit Party votes will go to Johnsons Vote Leave Conservatives. Do you think otherwise?
I think that if Labour loses Hartlepool, it won't be because of Brexit.
Agreed. But I didn't say that.
Agreed. But I didn’t say that.
True. I think it's the problem we've seen across much of the north - Labour has spent about 25 years weighing rather than counting votes, and now it's starting to bite them on the arse. The idea that Labour's electoral uncertainty in Hartlepool should be pinned on Corbyn, Brexit, or everyone being racist, is frankly laughable.
The far/extreme rightwing vote is >50%.
The only way Labour will win is if the far (Tory) and extreme (BXP/UKIP) right wing parties split that vote. The result of this by election is entirely down to what the extreme right choose to do.
What a wonderful place.
Because look at the Tory + Brexit share last time. Most of those Brexit Party votes will go to Johnsons Vote Leave Conservatives. Do you think otherwise
I think the more interesting question is where have all the LibDem votes gone? Their collapse would say the issue is more complicated for Labour as they don't seem to have benefited
If you're branding the Tories the far right you've missed the trick that they've pulled. Even without Covid, their economic policy would have been branded as "marxist" at other points in time.
Regionally on Teesside you have relocation of government jobs to the area, nationalisation of a commercially doomed airport, nationalisation of the steelworks site, government cash getting thrown right, nationalisation of east coast rail, , nationalisation of northern rail, talk of "levelling up" an more government investment, creation of a freeport to direct investment to the area etc. Nationally we have commitment to increasing minimum wages, energy price gaps, increased taxes on empty homes, national infrastructure banks, clampdown on payday lending, interventions into the letting market etc.
These are things the Daily Mail went bonkers when proposed previously by labour. If you look at the new Tory MPs across the river in Redcar and Cleveland what they do very well is combine economic policies like those above in a package with a good dose of English nationalism. All delivered by social media savvy MPs who are from the area and sound credible while saying it. I lived in the area for 5 years and while there's a lot to like about it I found the lurch to this Nationalism quite scary.
There is absolutely nowhere for labour to go - the Tories have taken their good ideas, started to implement them and changed the game.
If you’re branding the Tories the far right you’ve missed the trick that they’ve pulled. Even without Covid, their economic policy would have been branded as “marxist” at other points in time.
On the contrary. It is called National Socialism for a reason.
I see that we've reached Godwin.
There isn’t, sure we can print money but that won’t work long term as we are in a global community and our currency will be devalued. If it was that easy every tin pot dictator out there would be doing it
Nonsense.
You have misunderstood how the monetary system in a sovereign country with its own central bank works.
Government spending is always new money creation. The limit is not the supply of money but resources and labour.
Inflation is the metric we can use to judge whether the economy is overheating - which is on a long term downward trend. Even with huge covid relief spending - it still sits at 0.9%.
You can't devalue a currency like this when it's not pegged against something.
There is absolutely nowhere for labour to go
There is, but they’re going to need to grow some balls and break out from their orthodox centrist bubble. Unfortunately they have a leader who is the very embodiment of the things labour have become synonymous with, which is the comfortable, liberal, well-meaning but ultimately patronising chattering middle classes. Remember that story of Mandelson mistaking mushy peas for guacamole? Well that’s today’s Labour Party in a nutshell, and it’s why they’re f***** in places like Hartlepool.
I read that was actually an American intern working for Mandelson but the story is better!
I see that we’ve reached Godwin.
69.57% Leave.
UKIP/BXP 2017 12%
UKIP/BXP 2019 26%
I reckon the residents of Hartlepool beat me to it, comrade.
I'm surprised that only dannyh appears to have made the connection with ukip voters and the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei aka the German Nazi Party
Ironically if you back far enough you will find that the origins of the EU lie in the Nazi occupation of France, and the resulting collaboration of the Vichy government with Berlin to synchronise the economies of France and Germany.
After the surrender of Germany it was initially simply tweaked to benefit France rather than Germany.
Post war France wanted to stop a return of the Nazis or anything similar? Can’t imagine why…
Ironically if you back far enough you will find that the origins of the EU lie in the Nazi occupation of France,
Even more ironically, Churchill proposed a Franco-British union which would have involved a joint citizenship, foreign trade, currency, and military in 1940 as France was being invaded. The nazi origins sound like, well, let’s call it propaganda.
So Rayner hasn’t had a lobotomy?
@ Riksbar
Churchill only proposed that in a desperate attempt to keep France in the fight and not surrender.
There was a doc on tv a few nights back, interesting stuff.
As for this country, I think the Tories will absolutely run the UK (or what's left of it) into the ground before Labour get a look in.
Before you know it we'll be "balancing the books" AKA The Mother of all Austerities. Cue the inevitable riots and people might start looking for change.
So much of the public sector is already cut to the bone but many simply haven't seen it because it hasn't affected them yet, like MH services for instance. Then there are people that have never been on benefits or not for decades anyway. That's a whole load of demonisation and humiliation that most are lucky to never experience.
Many people are in for an awful shock.
I do wonder how having demonised people on befits for so long, those people now out of a job are going to take it. Will it be pitting those who "choose" and those who have not against each other?
thepodge
Free Member
I do wonder how having demonised people on befits for so long, those people now out of a job are going to take it. Will it be pitting those who “choose” and those who have not against each other?
I'm honestly not sure, though I doubt that there will be a feeling of "we are in this together". Society simply isn't like that any more unfortunately. We've been told for some years now that society is "unnecessary".
Unless you are on the streets you always have something to lose and that is a great way to for a government to keep control and to keep us plebs fighting between ourselves for the last loaf of bread at the food bank.
I think it's too much to hope for any actual active conflict especially with the change in the laws against protest, but can't help think it might be quite thrilling to see England tear itself apart when finally enough people don't have anything any more, although it's going to be tough for it to happen because of "look statues"...
Wondering what it will actually take for it to happen, actively offing pensioners doesn't seem to have caused much of a response!
The question is what will it take?
I think that if Labour loses Hartlepool, it won’t be because of Brexit.
I suppose it will be the current leaderships fault then?
You are right about Brexit, brexit is done, so its all down to what the tories will offer the electorate.
I think it’s too much to hope for any actual active conflict especially with the change in the laws against protest, but can’t help think it might be quite thrilling to see England tear itself apart when finally enough people don’t have anything any more, although it’s going to be tough for it to happen because of “look statues”…
Populism always fails, unfortunately it just takes a long time for it to do so.
Populism always fails, unfortunately it just takes a long time for it to do so.
And it is usually traumatic as the duped have invested so much 'pride' in kidding themselves.
I’m surprised that only dannyh appears to have made the connection with ukip voters and the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei aka the German Nazi Party
They all like Coldplay?
I reckon the residents of Hartlepool beat me to it, comrade.
If you're reduced to comparing people from Hartlepool to Nazis, it's time to stop and have a think.
If you're capable.
If you’re reduced to comparing people from Hartlepool to Nazis, it’s time to stop and have a think.
If you’re capable.
69.57% Leave
25.8% BXP
They seem pretty keen on far right policies.
If it steps like a goose quacks like a duck etc.
They seem pretty keen on far right policies.
I hear that people in Hartlepool have been demanding new motorways. Makes you think.
I hear that people in Hartlepool have been demanding new motorways. Makes you think.
I hear getting the trains to run on time is a big issue as well, makes you think
I hear that people in Hartlepool have been demanding new motorways. Makes you think.
Autobahnen?
Maybe they could start Boris the Bullshit's tunnel to NI at Hartlepool and employ them to dig a tunnel under the width of England as well? Might as well in the interests of 'public works'.
There's going to be a vegetarian restaurant in Hartlepool.
Makes you think.
There’s going to be a vegetarian restaurant in Hartlepool.
Makes you think.
Not as much as 69.57% Leave and 25.8% Brexit Party, though, eh?
The people of Hartlepool took Movember very seriously.
Makes you think.
The people of Hartlepool took Movember very seriously.
Makes you think.
Not as much as 69.57% Leave and 25.8% Brexit Party, though, eh? Comrade?
Where are your figures on Movember in Hartlepool in any case? Even if you are making up stuff to appear 'amusing' it is instructive that you are now reduced to doing so rather than addressing the key point. Namely that Hartlepool has twice voted in way higher proportions than the national average for nationalist (Brexit) and fascist (Brexit Party) political movements.
Still, no need to answer real questions when you can shout 'splitter' at the Popular Front for Judea, eh?
So Rayner hasn’t had a lobotomy?
Nope - she has always been a bit dim / lacking in nous
If you’re branding the Tories the far right you’ve missed the trick that they’ve pulled. Even without Covid, their economic policy would have been branded as “marxist” at other points in time.
I wish everyone would realise, that the modern tories brand of "socialism" is not about investing in services and infrastructure, it is about syphoning tax payers money off to the shareholders (the 1%ers). The benefits of those policies are experienced by the corporates owners not the general public.
Indeed. Under the tories losses are nationalised, profits privatised
Not as much as 69.57% Leave and 25.8% Brexit Party, though, eh? Comrade?
There's a new cleaning company in Hartlepool. The work isn't great but the uniforms are lovely.
Makes you think.
The benefits of those policies are experienced by the corporates owners not the general public.
Sorry but that isn't true at all. They've just put a billion quid into public sector decarbonisation, which is directly benefitting schools, local authorities and hospitals.
They’ve just put a billion quid into public sector decarbonisation, which is directly benefitting schools, local authorities and hospitals.
The Salix money is in the form of loans, not actual funding, yes?
Could someone define for me what is a " poor " area ? Income,house prices,number of people on benefit ?
I live in what would be described as a poor area of the North East if £60k buys you a 2 bedroomed house.But I don't see poverty here.
In fact over the last 10 years I can say that my neighbours,working and retired, seem to have actually more money coming in looking at the new cars and house improvements.Has the area drifted away from the Labour Party or has the party stagnated and only appeals to an eroded core vote.
Talking to neighbours Labour are just seen as a party for people on benefits with nothing to offer the working majority.Its difficult during the present situation but Labour need to put some hard and fast long term easily understood policies on the table .
Labour are just seen as a party for people on benefits with nothing to offer the working majority.
That's the daft thing, (outside of pensions) the majority of benefits go to people who are in work
The last decade has seen in work poverty explode
it is about syphoning tax payers money off to the shareholders (the 1%ers)
I'm vehemently anti-Tory but even I can see that it's not always that simple. I have a pension pot from when I was self employed and last year it went from £32k to £36k. Not exactly minted, but it grew over 12% and it's based on stocks and shares.
Talking to neighbours Labour are just seen as a party for people on benefits with nothing to offer the working majority.
That is exactly what I hear. Putting Labour in the difficult position of finding ways of proposing help for those that need it most, while also shrugging off the (misplaced) public perception that they don't want to also improve the lives of everyone else. The tried with "the many not the few", and talk of the 1%, but that still made voters think they were the party of protest and special interest groups, not a party that will stand for them. Many people do vote selfishly, sadly, but based on a perception of who the parties will work for... rather than examining the sets of policies to see which will actually be in their interest.
Talking to neighbours Labour are just seen as a party for people on benefits with nothing to offer the working <span class="skimlinks-unlinked">majority.</span>
The same is happening in the UK as happened in the US long ago. Thatcher gave the working class a handout in the form of home ownership which made them feel middle class, and the bonds of solidarity with those at the bottom were broken. New labour was the response to that, and it worked for a while, but now that those new middle classes are seeing the gains they saw in the 80s removed, labour have no strategy to answer these issues. As I keep saying, in strategic terms the tories are about 20 years ahead of labour.
From my perception here in the (just about) working class Midlands, Labour's issue is that they simply don't seem to stand for anything bar "not Tory".
Our Saturday night Zoom call turned to politics (yay!) and those supporting labour struggled to come up with a reason to vote for them bar "well look at what the Tory's have done", which is not an unfair way of voting but doesn't help them convert voters.
Starmer and the party in general have been far to quiet on Brexit, and then far to quiet on Covid. I don't understand why they aren't getting themselves on to every major broadcaster, in every newspaper, and ripping the government apart. Why are they not showing outrage at the awarding of contracts? At the death rate? At the Brexit fiasco? And why are they not offering ideas and solutions as to what could have been done differently? And what they would do if they were in charge?
It's like they don't want to push the government on the big issues. Just saying something to differentiate them from other parties would be a start.
I know the press is right wing but come on, if Farage can get on TV and radio then Starmer can.
Why are they not showing outrage at the awarding of contracts? At the death rate? At the Brexit fiasco? And why are they not offering ideas and solutions as to what could have been done differently? And what they would do if they were in charge?
Because they're more focused on purging the left from the party so they will never again lose control as they did in 2015. They have their prize, and they're doing everything they can to keep it.
I’m vehemently anti-Tory but even I can see that it’s not always that simple. I have a pension pot from when I was self employed and last year it went from £32k to £36k. Not exactly minted, but it grew over 12% and it’s based on stocks and shares
Pension funds own less than 10% of stocks, syphoning tax money into the supporting private enterprise is a very inefficient way to support pensions, it would be far more efficient to just raise the state pension to benefit everyone. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that the richer you are the more you benefit from the pension funds, so even that 10% is unbalanced to the benefits felt by the general populations.
As I keep saying, in strategic terms the tories are about 20 years ahead of labour.
The tories grasped a long time ago that folk generally only vote Labour if 1. they "feel" like they can afford to. ie their job and family are secure enough to withstand the money that "Labour will spend" and 2. If Tory policies get so bad that mildly ring wing folks think it's time for change in direction.
purging the left from the party
Who? Name names... who are these left wingers being "purged", and how?
The Salix money is in the form of loans, not actual funding, yes?
No, it's new grant funding. Salix loans are a longstanding and separate facility.
There's also £0.5 billion of new grant funding to LAs via the Green Homes Grant, which is targeted at fuel poor households.
No, it’s new grant funding.
Ooo.. that sounds good. Got a link to the details?
That Mandelson link again Dazh? Well, while he's right about McCluskey... the leadership absolutely should be sidelining him... they should also sideline Mandelson. Both are noise boxes off stage that will only damage the party in the eyes of voters.
Removing antisemites from the party isn't something I'd push back against, personally, whether they are part of "the Left", or not. Not only is it the right thing to do, it's also something that has to happen to win back the trust of voters.
Removing antisemites from the party isn’t something I’d push back against
You're missing the point, Mandelson isn't interested in anti-semitism, he's just using it as an excuse to get rid of the pesky leftwingers who obstruct his mission of using the labour party to help his billionaire oligarch friends. Why only buy off one party of power when you can do both?
There’s also £0.5 billion of new grant funding to LAs via the Green Homes Grant, which is targeted at fuel poor households.
if its anything like the green homes grant t will be another massive con, as anyone who tried to apply for it will tell you
https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/uks-green-homes/104560/
https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/statistics-lay-bare-green-home-grant-failure
getting back to Hartlepool
green grants, arch-mage mandelson , even boring starmer are something of a sideshow
It will all be about the vaccine & easing of lockdown, the Tories & Johnson in particular know how to use a good news story, Hartlepool could well go Tory, but itll refelect the rest of the locals & crucially for the UK Holyrood elections too & it will be vaccine bounce that does it
At this point im not sure theres much STarmer, Sturgeon or anyone can do to stop Johnson as the economy & society opens up just in time for elections
if its anything like the green homes grant t will be another massive con, as anyone who tried to apply for it will tell you
It's not. It's a grant paid to local authorities, rather than a voucher scheme which as you say hasn't worked at all well.
No, it’s new grant funding.
It’s not. It’s a grant paid to local authorities
Do you have a link to the details of both of those? Interested.
Thanks for that. Enough info there to track down what’s planned locally in Calderdale with the money… ground and air source heat pumps to replace gas fired heating in galleries, museums and the indoor market. Seems a wise spend.