[Closed] Greek election - extreme left won

A British economist made the argument for temporary deficit spending as a fiscal policy tool to help stimulate an economy in recession 80 years ago,

Partially true - he would not have approved of the policies in the build up.

The austerity point in much better....jambas, it's not living in your means, it's a combination of reducing spending and/or increasing taxation - both of which are an withdrawal from the economy ie negative. JMK actually discussed how this would be avoided but Krugman and the neo- Keynesians forget a lot of what their so-called master actually said and taught.

Implementing austerity measures are part if the condition of Troika funding hence the incompatibility between Tsipras comments and actions. But nothing new in that. It is unfair to say that nothing on revenue, they have announced going after the Greek oligarchs as one of the first measures.

Let's not get too selective or deliberately misquote Carney. His essential point (as he made to Alexis Salamondopoulous) is that Europe needs a coordinate fiscal policy including transfers from Germany to weaker states and contrasting the lack of proper policy options with the greater flexibility that we have in the UK.

But he realises that austerity alone will not sort out Greece's mess. That is true.

Partially true - he would not have approved of the policies in the build up.

No it's completely true, he argued for temporary deficit spending as a fiscal policy tool to help stimulate an economy in recession.

Did also of course argue in favour of surpluses and cuts in government expenditure during boom periods, so he clearly wouldn't have approved of the policies in the build up. But that's a different point and it does not make the first point "partially true".

Just because policies at odds with Keynes were followed during the boom periods does not mean that he would have approved of his policies being ignored during periods of recession.

A funny read

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/greece-should-ice-troika

Zero hedge loves crises!!!

Maybe what's happened in Greece is the first solid reaction against the complacent, corrupt, self interested status quo.

Here's hoping

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/28/convictions-politics-fear-syriza-podemos-snp-green ]You appear to be in agreement with a certain guardian journo [/url]

Monboit, wildly off the mark yet again. His comments on LatAm are hilarious - has he watched Dilmas policies in BZ?

Did he just have 1 min to write that claptrap

deliberately misquote Carney

No one is misquoting the Bank of England governor, if they are then he should sue them.

Here again is another source reporting the same point, this time the guardian :

[url= http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/28/bank-england-governor-attacks-eurozone-austerity ]Bank of England governor attacks eurozone austerity[/url]

And as for Carney arguing in favour of fiscal union then that's another policy which I feel fairly certain that the Bank of England governor shares with Syriza.

Sorry Ernie you seem to be (very) selectively quoting both parties. I doubt carney would worry about being misquoted on a MTB forum though.

Here is the link to the speech - [url= http://www.bankofengland.co.uk//publications/Pages/speeches/2015/794.aspx ]Carney Speech[/url]. Here is the conclusion:

Europe needs a comprehensive, coherent plan to anchor expectations, build confidence and escape its debt
trap.
That plan begins but does not end with the monetary policy boldness of the ECB.
That plan includes difficult structural reforms, but cannot be wholly reliant on them.
That plan requires greater private risk sharing via banking and capital markets unions.
But that plan also needs to recognise that private risk sharing will never fully replace public risk sharing so
that plan should include what every other successful currency union has at its heart: mechanisms to share
fiscal sovereignty.
As of this evening, progress on structural reforms in the euro area remains uneven. Cross border risk
sharing through the financial system has slid backwards. Europe’s leaders do not currently foresee fiscal
union as part of monetary union.

Such timidity has costs

So I think my analysis (and THM's) are correct and the reporting (or subbing) draws an incorrect conclusion from a short quote.

EDIT: It would also be fair to conclude that such a transfer would allow Greece to slow down their austerity measures. But it isn't a general call to arms for Europe to spend spend spend.

Did he just have 1 min to write that claptrap

At least 10 I reckon 🙂

Monbiot by his own admission is an idealistic dreamer. Hardly a surprise that he would grasp an opportunity to encourage people to be the same. His comments on the labour party are close to the mark though. They may not be finished electorally, but in all others, they are utterly pointless.

The guardian ends the quote at exactly the key point (wonder why).

Good job the whole speech is on the BOE website and the point clear. The fiscal policy point is all about channelling private sector surpluses.

Carney is a bit cheeky re comments on devaluation. Sorry QE is hidden what exactly ?

Sorry Ernie you seem to be (very) selectively quoting both parties.

I haven't quoted anyone. I provided links to reports of Carney's speech. All the quoting was made in those reports. As I said if they have misquoted him then I'm sure he will seek redress/legal advice.

I find this reaction to embarrassing headlines such as [i]"Mark Carney slams Eurozone austerity days after Syriza win"[/i] with suggestions that I, personally, am misquoting the Bank of England governor quite frankly ridiculous.

You really are clutching at straws if you want to blame me for embarrassing headlines.

Not blaming you. You are perfectly free to read what the governor actually said. Front oage of BOE website. Once you have done that, you will see the error.

It's clear that carney is talking about fiscal transfers - recycling private sector surpluses - it's nothing to do with austerity in isolation. So like JMK, taking little bits and missing the whole point is as you say, "ridiculous"

ernie_lynch - Member 
You need to re-read the article mefty

Much better the read Carney's actual speech, then the mistakes of interpretation can be avoided 😉

....it's nothing to do with austerity in isolation

Now you are making stuff up. Who's talking about "austerity in isolation"?

The only bit I have copied and pasted from the reports of his speech I have linked is this :

[i] “It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that if the eurozone were a country, fiscal policy would be substantially more supportive,” he said.[/i]

No mention of austerity at all in the one and only bit that I have copied and pasted.

I have not taken "austerity in isolation" as you claim.

He did however talk about austerity, according to the reports. Even the Tory supporting Daily Telegraph agrees that he attacked the Eurozone austerity measures. From the Daily Telegraph :

[i]It’s Germany’s worst nightmare. Increasingly isolated, ganged up on, and even hated by much of southern Europe, it is fast losing the argument over the future of the euro.

Even the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has been at it. This week he joined in the German bashing with a full-frontal attack on Berlin’s austerity agenda.[/i]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11377010/Germanys-worst-nightmare-has-come-true.html

Stop trying to blame me for what the press is reporting of Mark Carney's speech.

I am not, I am inviting you to read what he actually said not the misleading paper articles. It will save further misunderstanding/embarrassment. Your choice....

Mefty and I made the correct one already.

If you ?ant to read the Torygraph , alistair heaths article is a much better read. Greece has only one real option now.

And the same paper has an interesting article on why the Danes have had to cut rates for the third time in ten days. After the Swissie, next the krone. Mess with currencies at your peril central bankers!!!

It will save further misunderstanding/embarrassment. Your choice....

So now true to form you are reverting to "patronizing mode".

I fully understand what the Daily Telegraph was saying when it referred to Mark Carney's "full-frontal attack on Berlin’s austerity agenda".

I also fully understand that when jambalaya claims that austerity is merely "commonsense" that it's a sentiment the Governor of the Bank of England doesn't necessarily agree with. Which was my original point.

Of course it could be that the Governor of the Bank of England simply lacks "commonsense" ?

I agree with your critique of Jambas definition of austerity FWIW but invite you again to read what Carney actually said. You will change your view on the Torygraph headline then.

Newspapers headlines are always bad indicators of the text and the subject. Another case in point.

Enjoy (QE aside, it's not a bad speech) and good night.

Even I agree its worth reading the whole speech

Welcome back ernie your extended holidays are our loss

Thanks JY. Although I'm not sure that I'm "back". I decided to pay a visit on this thread when I saw the suggestion that Greece was in a dire economic crises because the Greeks are apparently lazy. I didn't originally intend more than one post.

And I haven't received a recent ban btw, in case of "extended holiday" being a euphemism for that 🙂

Ah it can be read that way but it eas not meant that way. I assume you just tire/bore of this place and leave of your own accord.

I like this guy, I think he really can deliver for the Greeks, a masterstroke cosying up to Putin, who also has his back against the wall having upset Corporate Capitalism taking those war ships down to the G[s]20[/s]19.

The whole currency war has engaged another level.

Who was it said Germany are shitting themselves? Don't think we shouldn't worry either, this is going to get very messy.

Another amusing/interesting read

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29/alexis-tsipras-open-letter-germany-what-you-were-never-told-about-greece

Currency wars on-going elsewhere......!!!! Tut, tut, Mr Carney. Straight bat please.

Germaine Greer's explanation of QE was entertaining on an otherwise dull QT last night.

teamhurtmore - Member

Germaine Greer's explanation of QE was entertaining on an otherwise dull QT last night.

+1 As was her admission to being a bed blocker!

What did she say then? The mad old bat!

I've given up on QT of late. I thought it was only a matter of time before Katie Price was on the panel

I confess I am bit surprised about the discussion here on our various definitions of austerity. Mine is simply that its about financial responsibility and reducing spending to a sustainable level, for countries that can no longer borrow that means bigger cuts. There is no need for Greece to cut government spending to zero, its about reducing it to a sustainable level based upon your tax receipts. Countries, like individuals, have spent too much and lived beyond their means. What we are seeing is a necessary correction.

Germany and the eurozone countries have already given Greece a huge amount of assistance. Enough is enough. I also doubt Germany is feeling under pressure, its in a very strong position relative to most other EU countries.

I think any cosying up by Greece to Russia is very foolish and will just isolate them further. Cosying up to a country which invaded Crimea and shot down an airliner is not smart. Interesting fact pointed out to me yesterday is that the Russian economy is now half the size of the UK's, such is the impact of the currency devaluation. Hardly a superpower.

Pretty much pointed out the hole in the current system of perceptual money. Comparing printing money for the Banks and now Europe, I was dozing off at the time, it was a pretty lame QT no real characters.

jambalaya - Member

I think any cosying up by Greece to Russia is very foolish and will just isolate them further. Cosying up to a country which invaded Crimea and shot down an airliner is not smart. Interesting fact pointed out to me yesterday is that the Russian economy is now half the size of the UK's, such is the impact of the currency devaluation. Hardly a superpower.

I can't see the difference, well I can Russia hasn't killed quite as many just yet.

Germany is only assisting, to secure a larger market for their manufacturing base without the need to devalue their currency like the rest of us, it's over, everything is going to have to change. Including the petrodollar like as not, if China also lines up with Russia.

Countries, like individuals, have spent too much and lived beyond their means.

Here we go with the national credit card rubbish again. Will you stop comparing national and international finances to that of a spendthrift consumer who needs the latest pair of shoes.

Germany and the eurozone countries have already given Greece a huge amount of assistance.

If you say it often enough it might become true. How difficult is it to understand that austerity in the form of what is now happening in Greece is a counter-productive strategy for all concerned. Even leaving aside the humanitarian and moral aspects of grinding and entire population into poverty and servitude as punishment for something they had no control over, it doesn't help Germany and the other creditors as the very medicine they're administering is making the patient more ill. Can't you understand that?

If there is one thing in life to remember 'don't trust Russia'. Be very, very wary when they are your only friend.

Also it seems China ain't happy with the Greeks after the new government stopped the sale of the port of Piraeus to them.

A spendthrift consumer is exactly how Greece has behaved. Living on the never never with an ever expanding debt which they could never hope to pay back. That's why without the help of the billions from Germany and the rest of the EU they would have gone bust in 2009.

Of course Greece is suffering pain, as it was the most irresponsible country it is suffering the most pain. Austerity and financial responsibility is working elsewhere. It's worked in the UK. Whatever pain Greece is suffering its far less than if they had defaulted in 2009, or they would suffer if they default now. TMH is right in that the only real solution for Greece is to default but the EU are doing Greece a huge favour in allowing them to continue in the euro propping them up with loan which no market participant would grant them. The did this in 2009 as they where afraid a Greek default would force big core countries like Spain and Italy close to the edge. Due to the success of austerity in those countries that's no longer the case, so the eurozone now has the option to let Greece default without that risk of contagion. Greece suffering economically isn't counter-productive for the EU particularly as the alternative as proposed by Syriza is gifting them euro 120 billion and then facing a queue of other nations asking for the same treatment.

Greece have had their election, perhaps Germans, Italians, Spaniards etc should be given a referendum on whether Greece should be allowed a debt write-off at their expense.

I hear the Greek finance minister will be in London over the weekend so perhaps we'll get to hear from him directly and I assume Osbourne will make a comment after their meeting.

@derek, we'll have to disagree on the role of NATO. Russia has been Assad's major supporter and indeed blocked action which could have prevented the growth of IS. The Litvinyenko inquiry has alleged a direct link between Putin and funding Al-Q. We shouldn't get too distracted with this or the thread will go off track.

A spendthrift consumer is exactly how Greece has behaved.

Once again you're equating the Greek state and the people who misappropriated it to get rich, with the Greek people who are now having to suffer the consequences of these corrupt and fraudulent actions. Can you not understand and acknowledge this distinction? No one is denying that the Greek state spent and borrowed beyond it's means, that much is evident. The issue now is (or should be) who should take responsibility, and how the situation can be rectified in a way where those who were not responsible don't have to suffer for actions they had no part in or control over.

@daz you and I are certainly going round in circles. The Greek people where the primary beneficiaries and not a few (many) corrupt individuals be they politicians or not, that's my view. I also think the losses suffered by international investors and the cost to the EU of supporting Greece has far exceeded any benefits they got from the relationship. The average person in Greece can see first hand how their economy works with it's huge black market and anyone who care to look would see that the salaries, benefits and pensions they received where overly generous versus their European neighbours. What the successive governments where doing in running up huge deficits was plain for all to see. Greeks voted for even bigger handouts. TBH they've done the same again so at least they are consistent.

I hate quoting wiki but this is pretty balanced [url= http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_government-debt_crisis ]Greek Debt Crises[/url]

Yes we are going round in circles, but as long you keep repeating these fallacies about the Greek people I feel duty-bound to repeat the counter argument. I guess I just struggle to understand a viewpoint that has not an ounce of sympathy or compassion in it for the poor buggers who now find themselves impoverished through no fault of their own. Do you at the very least not admit that the vast majority of people now suffering had no control over what happened?

What the successive governments where doing in running up huge deficits was plain for all to see

Governments were not reporting the figures properly so deficits were consistently understated - to expect the average citizen to understand this is a bit of a stretch.

And if the EU didn't know how did the Greek citizens FFS

TBH they've done the same again so at least they are consistent.

Once again you look at it through the prism of 'greedy greeks' wanting something for nothing. Has it occurred to you that they voted for Syriza as they were the only party who expressed even a passing interest in the suffering of the people, and because they were the only party untainted by association with the crisis and the corruption, greed and criminal acts which accompanied it?

Do you think they might do a UK version?

Plus don't forget that politicians generally react to rather than lead events.

Look what us happening in the real world. €20bn withdrawn from banks this month versus €3bn in Decemeber, Greek banks now becoming increasingly reliant on Emergency lending Assistance (ELA) which comes each month from the ECB and is released on condition of adherence to the agreed adjustment.

So the ECB turns off the taps, Greek banks have a liquidity squeeze and Bobolopolous is your uncle.....

Real events could soon overwhelm Tsipras.

TBH they've done the same again so at least they are consistent.

You couldn't be further from the truth. What the Greeks have clearly done is to vote for a change with the past and to break with the old 2-party game. "Austerity" was evidently not working - it was resulting in a mountain of debt that could never be repaid and the increasing destitution of a European country. They have voted for another approach,

jambalaya - Member

@derek, we'll have to disagree on the role of NATO. Russia has been Assad's major supporter and indeed blocked action which could have prevented the growth of IS. The Litvinyenko inquiry has alleged a direct link between Putin and funding Al-Q. We shouldn't get too distracted with this or the thread will go off track.

Ok I'll accept we beg to differ.

However it wouldn't be a forum discussion if I didn't remind everyone of the inbuilt fears of the Russian to what the capitalist west is capable of financing, right back to herr hilter. Now as far as ISIS is concerned it's George Bushes friends the Saudis who are financing them as part of a general Sunni v Shia battle going on for control of Iraq, a mess I needn't remind you who created.

Now if you were them with their track record of creating messes when displacing formerly stable dictators like Assad with whom I gather they are now back pedalling what would you do given he's your ally?

But what has all this got to do with Greece? Well behind all this is the continuing war of currency not least which should be the stable 'reserve' currency which the dollar has enjoyed for some time until recently when it has been competitively devalued by the states as part of an export drive. So all these dollar holders where could they go with their huge volumes but the Euro?

But now, thanks to the toxic debt which Greece is part of, now coming come to roost (you will recall Greek debt swap was part and parcel of the dodgy banking activities prior to Lehmans and paid handsome profits our dear friends Goldman Sachs when they fudged the entry of Greece into the Euro and set this whole charade in process) and you in Russia are being financially targeted with sanctions by these people, what are you going to do? Your assets and income is derived by petrol dollars, you have the EU wanting to bring your neighbour into the Euro, 'they' (the corporate capitol west) are quite literally at the gate and waging economic war and you spot a chink in their armour, what do you think they're going to do?

Gone sadly are the days when we in the west are the good guys, we're run by banks and corporations from the top down, this is all about the money, currency and energy control.

"Austerity" was evidently not working - it was resulting in a mountain of debt that could never be repaid and the increasing destitution of a European country.

It is also wrong to say the Greeks are destitute, there are far poorer countries around the world for whom that description fits. Yes there is a lot of pain but its far from destitution and much better than they would be if they default / exit the euro, the people know that that's why they want to stay part of the euro.

The Greeks were offered a bailout for political reasons as well as to prevent contagion in the eurozone at that time, on a stand alone / merit basis it made no sense and to be honest it doesn't make any sense financially today for the EU to continue with it as is, if they do so it will be for political reasons. It certainly makes no sense to agree a debt write off.

The choice in 2009

The choice they were given. Not the one they created themselves.

it doesn't make any sense financially today for the EU to continue with it as is, if they do so it will be for political reasons

Of course. That is exactly what Syriza are saying.

The choice in 2009 was agree to the bailout (with its conditions) or go bust, the destitution would have been far worse had they gone bust.

Are you sure?

Default, leave €, take 40% FX hit, recapitalize banks (fiscal hit), GDP hit of 5-7%?,

Adjustment, cost competitiveness restored etc - typically 6 years You have a chance....

Versus extended period with restructuring but no means of recovery plus massive wage deflation and unemployment.

Neither are great, but the forbidden version is the least of two bad scenarios IMO.

You guys are able to or take the time to post these things much more eloquently than I do, but yeah, dereknightrider, dazh, ernie_lynch, I think you're about right.

This obsession with growth, profit, loans and interest on those loans is part of the sick system of unfettered capitalism whose trust in "the unregulated market will find the most efficient way" is, in my view a lie, foisted upon us by those who stand to profit the most.

So, while my little video above is not much of a contribution to the discussion as a whole, it's another way of me pointing out the charade has been played time and time again.....

The big plus we have in our favour these days is the unfettered access to information that the internet has given us... [b]IF [/b] we manage to avoid the cunning dumbing-down of the masses [I would argue perpetrated mainly by the big media organisations, the hacking away of progressive movements to educate and inform that occurred [in this country, anyway, post WW2]] and the disinformation spread [thanks, Putin and Farage etc].... a brighter future awaits us.

So - I am firmly against "Austerity" when it means depriving the lower wage earners of the facilities they need to grow and flourish and contribute to our society. We've had the place [here and abroad] run largely by the rich elite for the benefit of themselves and they're screwing it up, for the people and the planet, and in some places we're seeing people really getting pissed off with this...

<NSFW>

So, why would we take what they [the same people] have to say seriously any more?

This would be interesting if related to unfettered capitalism in any way. The key issues here related exactly to the fact that markets have been prevented from working. The introduction of a fixed exchange rate without the ability or willingness to allow transfers of private sector surpluses across the region (Carney's real point!) lies at the heart of Greece's nightmare. Nowt to do with unfettered anything, in fact quite the opposite.

I think you didn't understand my point.

It's a lie.

They're all lies.

I don't believe them.

Got to agree with THM here (again - this is becoming quite disconcerting). We don't have unfettered capitalism. Far from it. Greece would never have been able to get anywhere near this point if we did. Their lines of credit would have been pulled a long long time ago.

The whole thing was propped up to sustain a deeply flawed political project (the Euro), for long after the point where it made any economic sense to do so.

It was Eurozone politics that sunk Greece, not unfettered capitalism

Okay.

It's just produced the same results?

The rich get richer, the poor get poorer. The printed/quantitative money is transferred to those who already had plenty and the public get screwed over. The credit is leant at n% interest and cannot be extended beyond what is deemed "market average", the rating is moved to "junk" when the terms are not met.

I just think the obsession with profit behind it, whether you want to call it political, or in my case I think it's the continuation of the movement to disenfranchise those who started out with less - the oldest trick in the book.

I readily accept that this is not an area of expertise, but as I said, from where I stand it looks like a setup.

Indeed, Greece was simply an extreme version of events that have taken place across the periphery. Hardly surprising that protest parties of both wings are having a field day. But even they can't buck reality as Syriza are about to find out,

I wouldn't dispute any of that. QE in all its forms only benefits the banks, and the top 5%. As does pretty much everything else we've witnessed since the world economy went tits up. All governments have pursued a corporatist agenda, at the expense of their populations. We've effectively all been asked to stump up to subsidise the very people who caused this whole mess, who of course have remained totally unaffected. In fact, most have benefited enormously

Socialism for the banks, capitalism for everyone else

Privatise the profits, nationalise the costs.

Full disclosure: I'm not having a very good day - spent all of it being super-accountable and referencing everything for a paper/dissertation and also being ill.

Maybe I just wanted to vent, don't want to be the "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" guy, but as I said, from my perspective it's just the same old thing.

Perhaps the "unfettered" description wasn't the best, but it's just really pissing me off. It's greed and the waste of human capacity/evolution that seems so damn [i]wrong[/i].

gofasterstripes - if you want to see what is happening in Europe at the moment, its what was done in south America in the 70's and 80's. Read this.....

[img] [/img]

Written before the crash, you'll recognise everything being done. Its the dismantling of the post war settlement. Using the crash as an opportunity for rolling back the welfare/healthcare systems demanded by the working classes after WW2. And privatising what little remains. All for the benefit of the rich, who evidently still don't think they're rich enough.

I'll lend it you if you like

All governments have pursued a corporatist agenda, at the expense of their populations.

You sure you're not confusing QE with the banking bailout?

All one of the same thing Molls. We're effectively acting as guarantors to failed financial institutions. Who remain unreformed, and still 'too big to fail'. Notts changed. Like I said: corporatist agenda.

Pretty much none of the money from QA made it into the 'real' economy. It was all used to re-float the balance sheets of financial institutions (who if we had real unfettered capitalism would have gone to the wall) who'd completely over-leveraged themselves to a ludicrous degree

Not really Binners. Income inequality has narrowed in UK with biggest hits at the top end since crisis. Bank employment has been hit hard as have returns - hardly any banks generate returns above cost of capital. Contacts that with Apple profits who show the consumer booming....

GFS - waste of human capital indeed, that is why I am puzzled by LW voices that trumpet the benefits of fixed exchange rate that could only result in one thing - wage deflation and/or mass unemployment.

The contradictions of Europe!!!!

[IMG] [/IMG]

*

[b]binners[/b] - Member
Got to agree with THM here (again - this is becoming quite disconcerting). We don't have unfettered capitalism. Far from it. Greece would never have been able to get anywhere near this point if we did. Their lines of credit would have been pulled a long long time ago.

Hmm [url= http://www.alternet.org/story/145884/how_the_monsters_at_goldman_sachs_caused_a_greek_tragedy ]looks pretty damned unfettered to me [/url]

Yeah that's the kinda thing I was thinking of, but it seems the terminology is troubling 😀

Strangely for STW, this is a very black and white discussion. Couldn't it be the case that everyone in Greece is partly responsible for what happened, mega rich as well as yer'average taxi driver not paying taxes etc? You have to accept that the mega rich are coming out of it a lot better than the average Greek, but that doesn't mean that the latter are blameless in all this.

Nope, as far as I see it an entire country was wrapped and packaged for profit just like all the other toxic debt swaps of the period and the blame lays squarely with those who authorised the packaging as well as the bent accountants employed by Goldman Sachs to fudge the balance sheet and due diligence. The Eu eurocrats and the bankers, not the population, anyone with a lick of sense would never have allowed them in, not to mention half the Eastern European Countries. It's turned what was once a trading block into a half baked attempt to federalise the unfederalisable, it's a bloody mess and now to use a phrase of the moment they are being weaponised.

Here we go ...

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31072139 ]Left-wing party in Madrid mass rally[/url]

Why don't we just spend free money? Yes?

Yea! Portugal (wonder if they have strong left wingers) next please after Spain

... The beginning of the end? 😈

that is why I am puzzled by LW voices that trumpet the benefits of fixed exchange rate that could only result in one thing - wage deflation and/or mass unemployment.

As for inequality , whilst true , it also a little disingenuous

Inequality tends to fall during economic downturns, as benefits are uprated in line with inflation while wages are hit by rising unemployment. But experts expect the recent decline in inequality to be reversed, once the coalition government's benefit curbs come into force.

See also poverty where we can all be, on average worse off, and one of the effects of this is poverty falls. You need to look behind the statistics to see the true picture unless of course you just want to mislead with them.

* I am not really its clear why you do it; AS esque levels of "facts"

Intriguing last 24 hours. Eurocrats are showing increasing impatience and yesterday's press conference starring Dijsselbloem and Varoufakis was quite something. Judging by Liikanen and Dijesselbloem, we are getting close to a dramatic end game. 28 days before the desperate liquidity required by Greek banks comes up for consideration. D-day for the drachma?!?

Be long volatility and short €/$

Judging by the rallies in Spain I can't see how they can do anything other than make an example of Greece.

A European meltdown just in time for our elections. Dave is a lucky fella.

Make an example of? Horrific.

The body language said it all yesterday.

http://cdnapi.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/openGraph/wid/1_8mmtygep

"Make an example of" means making them stick to the terms of the bailout they signed. The bailout that was a far better outcome than the alternative and TMH I don't see a scenario where Greels are better off in 6 years. Argentina is still very poor and that's what 30-40 years after their default.

@derek I will try and dig out the face value of swaps etc but Greece was running an unsustainable amount of debt via the conventional means. It's a bit like saying the financial crises was the result of swaps/complex products when it was fundamentally about an orgy of consumer debt in the same way many in the EU gorged on government debt

Syriza are trying a divide and conquer strategy of speaking to all 20+ member of the EU (no mention of the IMF). Everyone is trying to appear "nice" on the surface but Syriza are going to get a dose of reality soon. That body language did say plenty, the troika are dealing with fantasists.

What will happen now to EURO €? Devalue?

Currency speculators' opinion?

😯

Forget Argentina, look at Brazil.

€ fate determined by QE not Greece. Going lower.....

No evidence then ? Any chance you will stop saying it then ?
Futile request but I can but dream.

So am i best getting my euros now or in a few weeks .

jambalaya - Member

@derek I will try and dig out the face value of swaps etc but Greece was running an unsustainable amount of debt via the conventional means. It's a bit like saying the financial crises was the result of swaps/complex products when it was fundamentally about an orgy of consumer debt in the same way many in the EU gorged on government debt

Agreed, but it was precisely why there was no place for them within the EU but for Germany wanting to extend the reach of the Euro and it's market place for exports and the Brussels Federalists just hell bent on creating a superstate and a currency base with which to challenge the dollar as reserve currency for international trade.

Argentina is still very poor and that's what 30-40 years after their default.

You really need to be less casual with facts jambalaya. Argentina's default was in 2001, not 30-40 years ago.

And this is what actually happened to the Argentine economy after they defaulted :

[img] [/img]

In fact according to the World Bank the Argentine economy has out-preformed the Brazilian economy (which is often offered as an example of a very healthy economy) since they defaulted in 2001.

See here :

http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_pcap_cd&idim=country:ARG:BRA:CHL&hl=en&dl=en

Jambalaya - have you compared the hit to GDP, wage deflation and unemployment of countries that have defaulted/devalued versus the recent Greek experience?

Which is worse?

I predicted all along that social pressures rather than political or economic ones will bring this folly (€) to an end. That is exactly what we are seeing expressed through the ballot boxes and opinion polls. How much pain do Greeks have to tolerate before the example has been made? This is the text book example of what happens when you fix exchange rates across an area that does not fulfil the criteria for an optimum currency area. The pain and the example are real - the Greeks are lazy tag argument is absurd/inaccurate in relation to the real pain that is being experienced.

Time to devalue and get on with it. The Eurocrats should be ring fencing the other nations but even then the dyke has now been breached. Three currency blocs or non at all, preferably. Then we might have some progress. France will enjoy being in the second division!!!

I wonder, though, if letting Greece into the Euro was clearly a bad idea, why did it happen and who stood to benefit?

Hence my comment about letting the unrestricted bastards play away.

This is a good read and Ernie might like its comparisons with Argentina

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Greeces-Odious-Debt-Political-Investment/dp/0857287710

The looting of the Hellenic Republic by.......