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Had the pleasure of sitting with George at a colleagues wedding.
[i]Syriza response though will be massive let down to those who wanted Greece to lead a charge to something diff in EZ[/i]
[url= https://twitter.com/georgemagnus1 ]George Magnus - Twitter[/url]
Devil as always is in the detail but "EU best practice" and comments on collective bargaining mean a total climb down. Syriza will spin that in Greece of course. The EU always wanted to see concrete tax measures, now to turn that into actual money. Stories about how tax receipts have fallen since Syriza came to power as people have simply stopped paying.
George links to Syriza's economic plan upon which they fought the election. It calls for a write off of "the greater part" part of the national debt. Total programme spending commitments where 11 trillion euros 😯 Not surprisingly they make no reference to where their 12 trillion of stted income will come from
[url= http://www.syriza.gr/article/id/59907/SYRIZA---THE-THESSALONIKI-PROGRAMME.html#.VOxkx_nq2Nc ]Thessaloniki Programme[/url]
BTW the 13th month pension payment for pensioners on €700 a month would benefit 1.3m people, that's more than 10% of the population or approximately 20-25% of the number of people who work.
@ernie, Greece spends €10bn a year on defense [b]73% of which are personnel costs[/b] - sound familiar? IMO Greek government spending is largely about buying votes and particularly in the past using borrowed money to pay people's wages. Greece has 2 million male adults of military age with 175,000 in actice service. that's the same percentage as Israel and I think we'd all agree Israel has a bigger need.
Many commentators and STWers try and hold out Greek military spending with Germany and France as one way Europe has benefited but the fact is the Greek Military is used to generate employment. I don't read too many headlines of where these troops are actually deployed on active service either. It's many years since I was last in Greece but each island had a Garison of soldiers to protect it.
I appreciate they may have spent some money on hardware, as I said they can sell it back.
Anyway, Greece can definitely spend less on their military but I doubt Syriza will do that as its a major employer.
Greece spends €10bn a year on defense 73% of which are personnel costs
Another 100% correct jamba-fact. That figure is pre-crisis. The current figure is 57% (IISS study)
I appreciate they may have spent some money on hardware
What do you mean they "may" have spent some money on hardware - did you read the article?
I even copied and pasted some of the relevant points. Here you are again :
[b][i] Greece, with a population of just 11 million, is [u]the largest importer of conventional weapons in Europe[/u]—and ranks [u]fifth in the world[/u] behind China, India, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea.[/i][/b]
.....but the fact is the Greek Military is used to generate employment
By right-wing conservative governments, the sort of governments which you fully support and defend.
In fact earlier in the thread you did precisely that, ie, defended Greek military spending claiming that it provided a lot of jobs :
jambalaya - MemberGreece spends heavily on the military due to its history of conflict with Turkey. It certainly provides a lot of jobs, soldiers stationed on every island, at least there was when Inlast visited 28 years ago.
Posted 3 weeks ago #
Enjoying the stories about who actually drafted the Greek proposals. And then the IMF pretends to be in disagreement.
False markets and dis-information being spread again - in the private sector, there are rules about this kind of thing!
tmh, I read the IMF letter, Lagrande/IMF says the Greek letter is the basis for discussion but lacks detail. I don't think they've said they disagree just more work to do.
ernie, I don't think my two statements are contradictory, no ? As I said they can reduce military spending aggressively if they wish. OK with me.
DrJ, was the most recent thing I could find, to be honest most stats on Greece are worth nothing as there is so much fiction.
It would be interesting to know why personel cost has fallen relative to budget, you'd guess you cut equipement purchases before people. Greek military is sinilar size to the UK at 175k and we are a country of 60m.
Jambalaya - you need to check who actually wrote the Greek proposal. JHJ to the thread quickly. No wonder it was broadly saying what the creditors wanted it to say. They basically drafted the whole thing (apparently!).
The murky world of EZ politics and finance. Meanwhile, in Greece.... 🙁
It would be interesting to know why personel cost has fallen relative to budget, you'd guess you cut equipement purchases before people
I imagine that cutting pay by a third, retroactive a year, has something to do with it, while your "friends" in Germany and France making it a condition of "aid" that you continue to buy their arms doesn't help.
Greek military is sinilar size to the UK at 175k and we are a country of 60m.
Greece has a largely conscript army but lives next door to two aggressive neighbours, one of which has the biggest NATO army outside the USA, violates their borders on a daily basis and has a track record of invading.
Stathis Kouvelakis teaches political theory at King’s College London and serves on the central committee of Syriza.
Central Committee? Central Committee???? LOL! They really do think they are communists !
EU loving Troika appeasing communists !!!
😆
Indeed amazing that the ...
Jacobin is a leading voice of the American left, offering socialist perspectives on politics, economics, and culture.
..could say such a thing!
I hope the Greeks can tackle tax evasion and corruption
Me too, but I'm not convinced that Schauble is the one to help them do it, unless he is offering his expert inside knowledge ...
http://www.dw.de/the-scandal-that-rocked-the-government-of-helmut-kohl/a-5137950
[quote=ernie_lynch said]
Central Committee? Central Committee???? LOL! They really do think they are communists !
😀
What amusing me about Syriza using the term Central Committee is that it is very unique to communist parties, I have never heard of any party other than a marxist-lennist party using the term.
And it is all the more surprising as Syriza represents the remnants of the KKE-Interior, I would have thought that they might have perhaps abandoned that sort of terminology when they split from the KKE-Exterior, the term Central Committee is associated with pro-Soviet sentiments, precisely the sort of issue which led to the split.
I heard recently that Yanis Varoufakis still admires much about Marx but doesn't like to "use the M word in polite society"! Now I hear that they call their executive committee the Central Committee.
And apparently Synaspismos, Syriza's largest constituent group, has a Politburo!
They sound like a very confused bunch of revisionists 🙂
Jambalaya - you need to check who actually wrote the Greek proposal. JHJ to the thread quickly. No wonder it was broadly saying what the creditors wanted it to say. They basically drafted the whole thing (apparently!).
tmh, well if the Greeks aren't going to write it themselves why not help them out !
DrJ - Schauble offered to send 500 tax inspectors, they'd help for sure. At least the Greek courts are now pursuing the ex-Finance minister. Allegedly he was sent a list of names by the IMF for Greek account holders at HSBC Switzerland and he had certain names removed ! List was subsequently published in 2013, i wonder how much tax has been collected from those individuals since - my guess is not much.
Syriza have a job on their hands now. 4 months breathing space to get a real proposal on the table and to get people/politicians onside in Greece.
DrJ - Schauble offered to send 500 tax inspectors, they'd help for sure.
How do you know that "they'd help for sure"? Have you actually got any proof to back up that claim?
Are you suggesting that Greece's tax evasion problems have nothing to do with legislation, the legal process, and the tax evasion culture, and is simply due to the ineptitude of its tax inspectors? If so what is this theory of yours based on?
And why wouldn't Greece be capable of training their own tax inspectors in the same way as they train their other professionals? Or is Germany also going to send them doctors, engineers, teachers, etc?
At least the Greek courts are now pursuing the ex-Finance minister
Apparently they are more vigorous than the German courts were in pursuing Schauble. And then there's the German Constitutional Court conveniently ruling that they can't extradite the guy at the centre of the Siemens bribery affair.
Yup ernie, I am as sure as anyone can be that 500 German tax inspectors would make a difference. Not paying tax is a cultural behaviour which needs to be addressed. Corruption in the tax service is rife. The Germans could send them some doctors, ones that insist on being paid by bank transfer/credit card rather than cash in hand eh ? They have a tax on swimming pools in Greece, hardly anyone pays it. So hire yourself a drone take some photos and then send the bills plus fines.
DrJ, I am sure the German tax authorities could do better, likewise our own HMRC but they are both by some margin better at collecting tax than their Greek equivalents.
In fact I can't think of a single area of Government or indeed broader society where I would say Greece does a better job than the UK or Germany.
EDIT I have tried to look up IISS data but it's all behind a paywall (£10 a report) - is it this one the military data comes from or something else [url= http://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military%20balance/issues/the-military-balance-2015-5ea6/mb2015-10-country-comparisons-58d8 ]IISS: Military comparisons[/url]
In fact I can't think of a single area of Government or indeed broader society where I would say Greece does a better job than the UK or Germany.
That's because you don't know anything whatsoever about Greece. You say that any statistics one produces are flawed, you haven't been there for decades, you have some acquaintances that are Greek expats. I'm wondering why, in fact, you are expending so much energy on this thread?
I assume DrJ you may have got he figure from this report (Jan 2013). I would be interested to see relative numbers from other countries which is why I was searching ISS but TBH it's irrelevant as Greece should be spending much less and certainly not buying any more new kit.
[url= http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_16/01/2013_478713 ]Ekathimerini article link[/url]
ernie the article above also speaks of the Greek desire to have a large military to confront the Turks
I see Syriza have suspended professional football games in the country indefinitely.
Yup ernie, I am as sure as anyone can be that 500 German tax inspectors would make a difference. Not paying tax is a cultural behaviour which needs to be addressed.
If not paying tax is a cultural behaviour how will sending 500 Germans help?
Are the Greeks going to start paying their taxes because someone is shouting orders at them in German?
.
I can't think of a single area of Government or indeed broader society where I would say Greece does a better job than the UK or German
I like that sort of patriotism .......British governments, and broader society, are a shining example to the world, along with the Germans.
Here 'broader British society' is showing some foreigners how to have fun
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Although the Greeks do make a tasty kebab, you can't deny that.
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🙂 ernie, the Greeks are quite good a rioting too ! Did you read why Greece has suspended football as @alltheies posted 8)
Why try and see how some help works out in terms of tax collectors ? I mean what downside is there, aside of course from the political downside of being completely embarrassed when the Germans start collecting a lot more tax. As I said it's been explained to me that many Greeks, especially upper middle class and more wealthy, treat tax as a voluntary donation and the fact so many see the government as corrupt so justify non-payment on that basis ?
BTW I love Turkish Kebabs, always have one at a great place in North London before a Spurs match. I don't associate Greece with Kebabs, more feta cheese, honey, yougurt ...
ernie, the Greeks are quite good a rioting too !
Except that they do it when they're unhappy with their governments. And they also do it in their own country.
The Brits are so happy with their governments (which do everything much better) that they riot just for fun.
And that satisfaction with their governments means that Brits are happy to riot abroad.
There's some big differences there.
ernie, there was so much rioting at the football they've just cancelled it nationally. I honestly thought you where posting the football thing as a joke after @allthepies post
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/31627613 ]BBC story (from an hour ago!)[/url]
But surely the Brits can do it better than anyone. Plus when it comes to rioting due to dissatisfaction Brits have the commonsense to go down to Currys and Foot Locker rather than blame their government.
The fans did not achieve Hillsborough they were the victims of it.
I am very impressed that Germany has 500 tax inspectors who understand Greek.
Interesting decision, mods, interesting decision.
What happened doc?
Markets misled yet again today. Good job such behaviour is not illegal, oh wait a minute.
The farce exposes how the EZ operates in all it's glory (sic)
Yeah, well, let's move on.
THM - do you have a link for IMF rumours?
Dr J, FWIW I did not report it
No probs, JY, maybe my post was OTT.
Sorry Doc, cut down on here due to the bloody diver and his watch holding me underwater! What IMF rumour? Do you mean the drafting of the actual Greek document? I can dig that out hopefully but easy to google.
First of the anti-gov rights today. Plus ca change......
Spain looking a bit dodgy today too!!!
The bank of Greece data on deposits flight looks horrible today. New records! Plus 40% NPLs and to think I used to make money buying these things even when they were on 3x book value. And now they are zombies.
Some light relief ...
DrJ ? If there was a report it wasn't from me.
The rhetoric continues from the Greeks, Varoufakis is interviewed in Charlie Ebdo (very left wing) further trying to inflame the debate by saying if the Greeks don't get a deal there will be a rise of the far right in Europe, which is by the way total nonsense and if anything the opposite is true. Plus in the parliament various ministers are queuing up to say they won't honour the commitments made in short term financing agreement just signed. Another stand off seems inevitable, as more time passes the eurozone will be more prepared for a Greek exit. The next 4 months are going to see building uncertainty. Varoufakis was trying to claim Greek banks had seen an inflow but that turned out to be money sent by the government to the banks for pension payments. The bank outflows will continue.
Had to post here again, I nearly collapsed laughing today when I read the Greek submission to the eurogroup. Aside from admitting that tax avoidance was deeply rooted in Greek society and noting service sectors like medicine are particular offenders there was this gem.
The Greeks plan for addressing tax avoidance is to hire non specialist tax inspectors who will be fitted with cameras and go about normal activities to see whether they are charged VAt and/or given receipts. What's really Golden is that this will include recruiting tourists 😀
How can you take these clowns seriously?
[url= http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/4e4b2122-c40f-11e4-a02e-00144feab7de.pdf ]Link to Letter[/url]
Also there is €76bn in uncollected taxes only some £6bn the government thinks is collectable, half has been overdue since 2009. Of the total there is some £7bn owed by government entities.
Eurogroup reconvenes. Lots of talk about how Greece has been wasting time and has done very little of practical use since the last meeting. The letter I linked to above has been widely criticized as going not nearly far enough.
The stand off continues. Greece clearly intends to take this to the wire.
Meeting lasted only an hour, Greece told to go away and actually come back with some real workable proposals. If this persists Greece will be leaving the euro, however I suspect there will be another climb down after more photo ops.
"If Europe leaves us in crisis, we will flood it with migrants,” said Panos Kammenos, the defence minister and leader of the Independent Greeks party.“Too bad for Berlin if there are some Jihadis from Islamic State in that wave of millions. If they strike us, we will strike them,”
😯
Euro still on the slide. £1-€1.40 today...
if the Greeks don't get a deal there will be a rise of the far right in Europe, which is by the way total nonsense and if anything the opposite is true
It will read to a rise of the left and the decline of the right? have you ever looked at what happens in countries when they have massive economic downturns and they blame a foreign agency for it......I am struggling to not Goodwin this thread tbh.
have you ever looked at what happens in countries when they have massive economic downturns and they blame a foreign agency for it......I am struggling to not Goodwin this thread tbh.
Well it's true that outside influences are often given as a reason for global economic downturns, and I assume you are referring to historical precedence from the 1930s.
Yes there was a swing to the far right, as well as to the far left, in many countries. And yes very right-wing parties did seize power in many countries, but that was not universal. There were exceptions where the left took power such as the Scandinavian countries and most glaring of all imo the United States with Roosevelt's New Deal.
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Interestingly after the latest global economic downturn the United States again swung to the left, even though not as much as in the 1930s.
As far as the likely scenario for Greece is concerned imo if there is a further seismic change in the political landscape due to a seriously deteriorating economic climate then I would expect it to be to the left rather than the right. Quite possibly from within Syriza itself as the motley crew of would-be academic revolutionaries rebel against the leadership. The KKE while it has potential for significant growth is still imo a long way from posing a serious threat to the existing political/social order. The far-right in Greece has no credible party beyond possibly the Independent Greeks which has seen its support fall dramatically in recent years. imho
As someone once said, political power grows from the barrel of a gun, and Golden Dawn are the ones with the guns. Their popularity within the police and armed forces were such an embarrassment that in the last election soldiers' votes were distributed to different ballot boxes to mask the effect.
To be fair if there was a worsening economic situation in Greece I think a further seismic change in the political landscape is unlikely and the most likely scenario is Greece exiting the Euro and plodding along the best that it can.
But if I had to say in what direction any political change is likely to come then I would say to the left rather than the right.
Syriza have turned out to be nowhere remotely near the description that this thread title gave them. But it is clear that the Greek electorate was, despite all the scare tactics of labeling Syriza "far left", prepared to vote for them. It is reasonable therefore to assume that a genuinely far-left party might stand a reasonable chance.
wrecker - Member
"If Europe leaves us in crisis, we will flood it with migrants,” said Panos Kammenos, the defence minister and leader of the Independent Greeks party.“Too bad for Berlin if there are some Jihadis from Islamic State in that wave of millions. If they strike us, we will strike them,”
😯
😯 Indeed.
I took the time to read the latest submission from Greece (available on FT website). EDIT: Varoufakis has just "blasted the leak" in Parliament, I am not surprised as it shows it's lack of substance and that's very inconvenient for him
[url= http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/55b27a7e-d87c-11e4-ba53-00144feab7de.pdf ]FT link to document[/url]
Very very little of substance, more promises to tackle tax evasion with a note that 24% of Greece's GDP is in the black/shadow economy with "professional services" being a particular problem. If they where serious about tax evasion they would accept Germany's offer of 500 tax inspectors.
I would expect this document will get short shrift from the eurozone as its just more nonsense just a bit longer than the prior submissions. 450m due to the IMF next week and the Greek's don't have the money.
If Greece wants to cozy up to Russia and Iran then so be it. It will just accelerate their exit from the euro and possibly the EU. The Greek people don't want that, why would they want a standard of living of the typical Russian, Iranian or Turk for example ?
IMF increasingly skeptical an agreement will be reached with Greece.
Looks possible Syriza will stall to the point of default and then call an election citing "democracy". The Troika can then decide whether to call the default or wait for any new government. This tactic was tried 5 (?) years ago by the PM who negotiated the original bailout who said he would call a referendum, Troika responce was sign now or we call a default. A short while later the guy was gone and Greece signed. This is looking like it could a Syriza repeat, refuse to negotiate and then walk away / call an election so as to dodge responsibility.
Here's the picture in fairly vivid and shocking graphical form:
[img] 
[/img]
FWIW, this is from an article which points out the poorer Greeks are now worse off than in 1980s (and also incidentally goes on to question if/how that could happen in the USA).
IMF increasingly skeptical an agreement will be reached with Greece.
According to whom? FT has about as much credibility as Bild when it comes to reporting on Greece, selectively "leaking" what their EZ pals tell them.
Looks possible Syriza will stall to the point of default and then call an election citing "democracy
You mean, people deciding their own fate? The horror!! We can't have that!! That's the job of the banks!!
@DrJ - story in the Greek Press [url= http://www.antenna.gr/news/dnt/article/398993/tomsen-ta-noymera-tis-ellinikis-oikonomias-den-einai-kala ]link[/url] and on Twitter picked up by Telegraph
You can democratically decide to not pay back your debts I suppose yes. However when you as a country owe money and you as a country have signed an agreement, be that a loan agreement or the EU treaty/eurozone then you don't have complete carte blance to do WTF you want. You don't have the democratic right to force the tax payers in the rest of the eurozone to bail you out on your terms as you decide from time to time.
The Greeks have not had much luck with persuading their neighbours to respect the principles of demcracy, even this century - the Turks, the Italians, the Germans, the British etc etc etc, and now the troika adding their names to the wall of shame, telling Tsipras who should and should not be in his government. The question now is do the lenders want to do what is best for the Greeks, for Europe, for their own tax payers? Or do they want to assert the unquestioned authority of the banks at whatever human cost?