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What's your take on this?
I think Marine Le Pen will win.
I have a feeling that the Muslim votes for Marine Le Pen will increase too. Yes, I know that is a contradiction but I have a feeling that will be the case. Let's see if that is true. I am assuming the Muslim voters attend the weekly prayers / lectures whatever.
Double post numptyism
I'm assuming the reduced turn out is not good news for Macron. Bugger. Frexit?
It's looking a bit twitchy tbh but it seems like Le Pen already picked up a lot of votes from competitors before the first round. The question really is what Melenchon's support does. Either way they'll be holding their noses, or of course just not voting. Melenchon's speaking against Le Pen should help, but then a lot of his voters only did so tactically and won't necessary follow his lead. Bizarre though since Melenchon was just a hair behind Le Pen and only 5% behind Macron... But then FPTP is bizarre too
But I think it'll be Macron, and less close than expected in the end.
I'd say don't worry about frexit since MLP has officially stopped supporting either that or leaving the euro. But she'll always say what she thinks will sell, so who knows. I do reckon that if she wins it'll be the end of her- single term then obliteration. But we'll see.
Hasn't she expressed support for Putin in the past like many far right leaders?
I'm guessing she's gone a bit quiet in that front though.
I don't think there's much likelihood of macron losing in the final round.
The next elections in 2027 will, I think, be critical as the fracturing of centrist and left-leaning parties continues and will change the French political landscape.
Poopscoop
Hasn’t she expressed support for Putin in the past like many far right leaders?
I am trying to see if that is the case as the Ukraine war will affect many.
She's been very open in her admiration of Putin
He has funded her campaigning
https://twitter.com/enile/status/1512847186320666632?s=20&t=okVIukhPObihhIUjzZvrwQ
She had to pulp a million election pamphlets in March because they featured this photo
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1499014526934597639?s=20&t=CWUZ8sYbFJJ_1hSA4dAosA
If be very surprised if she won, damage to France would be pretty bad, but who knows people voted for trump & brexit, after all & Putin backed those too...
I have a feeling that the Muslim votes for Marine Le Pen will increase too.
She's recently said it she wins she'll fine Muslims for wearing headscarves
Her deputy led a march past mosques wearing a pig's head
Her deputy led a march past mosques wearing a pig’s head
Jeezus H... What a time to be alive.
French vote first with their heart (today) and then with their head (two weeks time). Macron will win.
She’s recently said it she wins she’ll fine Muslims for wearing headscarves
Her deputy led a march past mosques wearing a pig’s head
That should be interesting because there are certain groups of Muslim will vote for her but I don't know the different composition of Muslim in France so it is difficult to say.
"I consider that the headscarf is an Islamist item of clothing," Le Pen told reporters at a press conference where she proposed a new law to ban "Islamist ideologies" which she called "totalitarian and murderous."
That's the sort of talk Muslims love to hear.
I think there's probably a few pics of Macron shaking hands with Putin, though the context is clearly different.
I suspect Macron will win, might be close.
I don't get the support for right wing/nationalist parties. There's enough lessons from history to show how a drift to the right creates isolation, division and conflict, when cooperation and more liberal/left wing policies bring peace and prosperity.
The problem seems to be a lack of education and critical thinking.
The problem seems to be a lack of education and critical thinking.
Part of the problem is not understanding what the problem is!
Rejection of mainstream politics is not a French phenomenon. It represents widespread dissatisfaction with the status quo and failure of the existing political/economic model.
It's probably worthy of a separate thread.
The problem with "othering" to gain political power and support, is it works until it causes disaster... and even once rejected after a disaster... quickly becomes a viable tool again. There is always an angle that can be found to make it work with a large portion of any population... it can not be stopped, it can not be done away with, it is always a viable tool that we should be wary off. The task is always to build a majority case against it... you will never have everyone against it. It could go either way in the next two weeks. I hope Le Pen loses. Again.
Not so sure Le Pen won't win. The same forces which gave us brexit are at play in France. Working people are angry, the middle class self interested and disillusioned, the rich hubristic. Left leaning voters will stay at home en masse and Le Pen will motivate the reactionaries. I don't know enough about french politics to have an opinion on what will happen if Le Pen wins but it'll be interesting.
How many fascists need to rise to prominence across Europe and the West before the establishment centrists figure out the problem?
I don’t know enough about french politics to have an opinion on what will happen if Le Pen wins but it’ll be interesting.
im not sure interesting is the word Id use
https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1513199601477689348
im not sure interesting is the word Id use
It will be interesting, although I probably should have said 'interesting'. We're in uncharted waters as far as liberal European democracies go. The signs have been there with Farage/Johnson and Orban, but a country like france electing an out and out fascist would be seismic. Like I said, when are the liberal centrists going to wake up?
How many fascists need to rise to prominence across Europe and the West before the establishment centrists figure out the problem?
We know that you're one of the gang on here who blame 'centrists' (boo... hiss) for absolutely everything but what about the inherent intellectual laziness of 'The Left'?
When the banking crash happened 'The Left' just sat back and complacently said to itself 'well now that capitalism has failed so spectacularly, obviously everyone will now see the light and vote for us'.
They then ignored the forces of the right mobilising to completely hijack the narrative to push their toxic nationalist agenda
Lets spread the blame where its due... right the way across the board. EVERYBODY, right the way across the political spectrum airily dismissed the Farages and Le Pen's until it was too late.
Those in the centre didn't take it seriously, but those on the left casually assumed that disillusioned voters would naturally head in their direction
but what about the inherent intellectual laziness of ‘The Left’?
The left have never been in a position of power to do anything about it. Figures on the left have been warning where this was heading for at least 20 years. It doesn't take a historical genius to figure out what happens when you disenfranchise working people and only act in the interests of the elite. Where the left have failed is in focusing on the easy issues of political rights rather than the more difficult and messy economic inequality that exists.
Like I said, when are the liberal centrists going to wake up?
"Wake up!" - the cry of the swivel eyed.
Just open your eyes and the answers are obvious. And involve being less 'liberal' whatever's meant by that, and less centralist presumably. Just that looking around the world at other options, what we've had in western europe I'd consider worth defending.
what we’ve had in western europe I’d consider worth defending.
We haven't defended it against the all out attack from rapacious capital, and now we have fascists filling the gap. You might think defending a system where wealth flows upwards and working people get ever poorer is worth it, but millions across Europe clearly disagree. The tragedy is that progressive parties and movements of the left have been destroyed by the establishment liberals so now the only people they have to turn to are reactionary populists like Farage, Le Pen and Orban.
so now the only people they have to turn to are reactionary populists
What was wrong with this guy?
What was wrong with this guy?
As I said I'm not completely informed on the details of french politics or this campaign but from reading that article it seems Melenchon has suffered from the same issues as Corbyn, in that he's had a rump of the centre-left acting against him to the advantage of Macron and Le Pen. It's probably way more complicated than that but it seems the same issues affect France as the UK, in that the 'left' establishment politicians just can't bring themselves to support a radical transformative candidate.
The tragedy is that progressive parties and movements of the left have been destroyed by the establishment liberals so now the only people they have to turn to are reactionary populists like Farage, Le Pen and Orban.
I think there are a few reasons we're seeing a rise in Right/Authoritarian govts. The first was the excess of globalization, the excess of capitalism, and the creation of exploding inequality happening at the same time that globalization is kind of encroaching on people's national identity or tribal identity (a big factor in Brexit)
Another trend was the post-9/11 militarisation of the export of "democracy" . We (the western nations) turned our national purpose into this war on terror, not only did we militarize our engagement with the world/middle east, which I think was generally bad for democracy, but we also provide a template and a justification for autocrats to expropriate that for their own purposes.
Then lastly, technology is big difference maker in the sense that these platforms that at first were connecting people became the perfect vehicles for disinformation and surveillance
And like it as not, the Republican party has literally gone off the deep end in the last few years. It's still true that where the US goes, the world follows.
it seems Melenchon has suffered from the same issues as Corbyn
...including the public not voting for him.
…including the public not voting for him.
Is that the cause or the symptom? It's very easy to say that people don't vote for him, but the question is why? Is it because they fundamentally disagree with his policies and programme, or is it because they've been told (erroneously) by the media and his critics that the change he proposes just isn't possible? Every time the centre tells voters that the things they want are not possible, the populists will be there to tell them it's the fault of foreigners and traitors.
Part of the problem is age demographics, and young people not voting…
https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1513361187437785088?s=21
The argument that there is “no one for the young to vote for” will come up, of course, or the feeling that “their vote doesn’t count against the weight of older voters”… but ultimately… more of the young need to vote if they really want politicians to act in their interests.
Is that the cause or the symptom?
Voter apathy, lack of knowledge, disillusioned, safe seats... i would say have more influence than left/right politics. remember that actually voting puts you in a minority, being a member of a political party an even smaller minority and actually canvassing or something like that, a still smaller group.
Another factor in France is that the left have torn themselves apart with infighting
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1513219792966197257
I picked up a student as a car share yesterday. She hadn't voted and wasn't going to. 🙁 I thought about voting for Hidalgo because I very much approve of what she's been doing in Paris and her policies, but... . So I exceptionally voted for the least bad first round as well as second round and that was Macron. Even if his pensions reform and RSA slavery proposals piss me off.
French vote first with their heart (today) and then with their head (two weeks time). Macron will win.
Hopefully this.
Another factor in France is that the left have torn themselves apart with infighting
They haven’t, have they? 😲
Another factor in France is that the left have torn themselves apart with infighting
They make Corbyn look like a complete amateur 😉
Erm, Corbyn didn't tear the left apart. There was no infighting among the left.
Voter apathy, lack of knowledge, disillusioned, safe seats… i would say have more influence than left/right politics.
These are all symptoms of the same thing, which is politicians mostly of the centre telling people that there is no alternative to what they are currrently experiencing. We're told we must accept falling wages, poorer public services, greater job insecurity, less support from the state etc whilst at the same time the people at the top get vastly more rich and powerful.
There are two groups who oppose this doom-laden consensus. One group would try to solve it and redress the balance, however imperfectly. The other group just want to exploit it to gain power and implement their hate-filled agenda. Guess which group the centre attacks?
In Macron's case he's been attacking the latter.
Fwiw despite the interesting points of view on this thread concerning the implosion of the left, Mélenchon is less than 1% behind Le Pen which is much more than his 2017 result.
Mélenchon is less than 1% behind Le Pen which is much more than his 2017 result.
Le Pen would undoubtedly have done better if the islamophobic bigots and racists had been more united in the first round, despite all the talk of left infighting.
Le Pen would undoubtedly have done better if the islamophobic bigots and racists had been more united in the first round, despite all the talk of left infighting.
They had Eric Zemmour to vote for, whose rallying cry was "Macron assassin" - although of what I'm not 100% sure....
In Macron’s case he’s been attacking the latter.
Well if that's the case then it's very different to what we see in the UK. Of course Macron now has an election runoff to focus his attention but I'd be interested to see what he's said about Melenchon in the wider campaign.
There was no infighting among the left.
🤠
In Macron’s case he’s been attacking the latter.
Absolutely he has. I mean, that is partly because the rise of the later in France is his biggest issue personally, if he wants to stay in power. But to be fair to him he has taken that line pretty consistently when talking about politics abroad as well as at home all through his presidency.
Well Macron hasn't said much, because Mélenchon isn't the principal opposition for the second round. By all accounts, he's run far closer than predicted.
Zemmour is a polemicist talking head from a news channel and looking at the participation numbers seems to have taken votes from Dupont Aignan (traditionalist Christian far right) rather than Le Pen (common or garden populo-fascist)
think there are a few reasons we’re seeing a rise in Right/Authoritarian govts. The first was the excess of globalization, the excess of capitalism, and the creation of exploding inequality happening at the same time that globalization is kind of encroaching on people’s national identity or tribal identity (a big factor in Brexit)
I would counter that the stagnation of social mobility and the pooling of assets into a very small and non-domiciled portion of the general population since the 2008 recession has done much to damage the political status quo. Added to that we've a very toxic media that pumps out narratives that the poor are ****less, immigrants are coming for your house/wife/job and that the young really could afford a £500,000 starter home on their £27k salaries if they cut back on avocado toast and flat screens has been fodder for a well organised, well funded and distinctly authoritarian bunch of degenerates to "flood the zone with shit" while their preferred useful elected idiots quietly dismantle society from within.
Then lastly, technology is big difference maker in the sense that these platforms that at first were connecting people became the perfect vehicles for disinformation and surveillance.
And like it as not, the Republican party has literally gone off the deep end in the last few years. It’s still true that where the US goes, the world follows.
Agreed there. The liberalisation of election campaign funding laws in the US opened the floodgates to gobshites with deep pockets who've seen what we've all shared on social media and are actively working to pull up the societal ladder as fast as they possibly can. That and a certain ex-KGB shithead who can buy an entire political movement for less than a third of the cost of a Mig-29.
In the little commune where we are at present the first round went:
M. Jean-Luc MÉLENCHON 27,05%
M. Emmanuel MACRON 25,00%
Mme Marine LE PEN 13,11%
A very rural commune.
Melenchon appeals to the People on the left, green etc... But he is loaded, lives in a massive flat in the richest Paris subburb. It is not compatible with traditional socialiste values.
Macron has managed to destroy both traditional left and right. It was obvious both extrêmes would be high.
After the président we vote for mps and Lepen Will never get a majority to form a gouvernement. That would be a real mess, more than it is now.
Macron has managed to destroy both traditional left and right
With a little help from les François Hollande and Fillon.
But he is loaded, lives in a massive flat in the richest Paris subburb. It is not compatible with traditional socialiste values.
You believe traditional socialist values demand that people should be poor?
I couldnt care less but for people over 60 who voted socialiste hé is not the right candidate.
No, just not hypocritical money hoarders. He isn't the République however loud he shouts that he is.
johnx2
Free Memberit seems Melenchon has suffered from the same issues as Corbyn
…including the public not voting for him.
LOL. He got 1% less than Le Pen and 5% less than Macron. You're making the same error for both politicians here- confusing outright performance with voting. The french system means that the 1% difference turns Melanchon's 22% into outright defeat and Le Pen's 23% into being one of the 2 winners, but it certainly doesn't mean he's not getting votes.
(in exactly the same way that Corbyn's 40% in 2017 got 40% of seats but May's 42% got 49% of seats enabling her to form a government. And of course Johnston scored a "landslide majority" with, er, 43.6% of the vote while "nobody voted for Corbyn" with 32%- because FPTP turns Johnston's 43.6% votes into 56% of seats and Corbyn's 32% into 31% of seats, and the Lib Dem's 11.6% of votes into 1.7% of seats. In allrecent elections it was about FPTP.)
Basically, in both cases the system made the result rather than the vote, and then makes the result look absolutely decisive. The suggestion that the public was "not voting" for either Melanchon or Corbyn is just wrong. And thinking of Melanchon as an obliterated loser because the system makes it so, is exactly the sort of thing that leads to Le Pens being potential winners and Brexits happening- we forget about the real votes and real voters that get hidden by electoral systems- I would say disenfranchised, others would argue but when you're dismissing 22% of voters there's a problem.
It is very concerning that Le Pen and Zemmour polled more than 30% combined.
I don't know the relationship between the two parties - I hope there is no danger (or there are rules preventing it) of Zemmour pulling out to gift vote share to Le Pen (a la Farage-Johnson).
Let's hope the French reject this spiteful brand of politics which seems new and exciting to some, but is actually as old as the hills and no less dangerous than 80-90 years ago.
Come on, France - walk the walk - Liberté, égalité, fraternité.
Did you vote for Mélenchon, Ernie? You must have at least as many of these as me if you did military service:
No, just not hypocritical money hoarders.
Socialists shouldn't have any savings?
Where did this money he's been hoarding come from - he was teacher before full-time politics wasn't he? Do you know what he's worth?
1.4 million euros, not bad for an ex-history teacher.
Dunno about the media in France, but in the UK they've done a grand job of convincing people that there is no difference between left/socialist/communist/marxist... the words seem to be almost interchangeable.
1.4 million euros, not bad for an ex-history teacher.
Yeah seems a lot for a history teacher, have you got a link to a reliable source to show that is what he is worth?
If he is indeed worth that much the source of unexplained wealth should be of intense interest to his political enemies, presumably it has been thoroughly researched?
I think it is family money. Nothing dodgy about it.
Yeah seems a lot for a history teacher,
To put this into perspective, thats only £1.1 million total worth.
At his age he's probably had some inheritance, and say he already has a 500k house from buying cheap in the right area, and a spouse contributing jointly with a resonable income...
..all of a sudden it doesn't seem too crazy, especially if hes held down a steady wage and modest savings all his life?
I think it is family money. Nothing dodgy about it.
Well that's good to hear. Dodgy money would obviously be at odds with socialist values.
I agree with this.
All the candidates have to declare what they are worth so just about any main stream source will be reliable, Ernie:
The origin is his political carreer:
The most lucrative being Euro deputé
Un mandat lui aussi très rémunérateur puisqu'un élu du Parlement de Strasbourg touche 12.800 euros brut par mois.
Local politicians get somewhat less
Un conseiller départemental dans un département comme l'Essonne touche entre 2.661 euros et 3.725 euros selon qu'il est conseiller de base ou vice-président.
"hoard" was the word I used.
This is what makes LePen dangerous
shes campaigning on cost of living
a russian gas embargo would send prices through the roof for everyone, in UK too- Martin Lewis this week warned that could lead to rioting, and we are much less inclined to it than the Gilet Jaunes etc
this way she is supporting Putin and appealing to those who are struggling
Marine Le Pen says she opposes sanctions on Russian gas
Oof. Nice to see Le Pen take another beating. She (or one of that family of scumbags) will be back of course.
Phew!
If the trend continues 2027 election will be a knife edge result; in 2017 it was 66-34, this time the projection is 58-42.
I think Le Pen will be back.
42% of French voters voting for a far right bigot isn't much to celebrate imo. Sure it could have been worse but it is a measure of how broken western representative democracy is to see it as some sort of victory.
It doesnt work like that. Melenchon will be higher and Macron wont go for 3.
42% of French voters voting for a far right bigot isn’t much to celebrate imo. Sure it could have been worse but it is a measure of how broken western representative democracy is to see it as some sort of victory.
Yes - a chunk of that will be an "Anti-Macron" vote rather than a "pro Le pen" vote, but those are scary numbers. It makes judging your protest vote at the next election much trickier - just look at Brexit...
Phew!
You think a country being forced to vote for a status quo centrist candidate who has done nothing for working people is a good thing?
42% of French voters voting for a far right bigot isn’t much to celebrate imo. Sure it could have been worse but it is a measure of how broken western representative democracy is to see it as some sort of victory.
Eh? You can only have one president. What system would you prefer to see?
You think a country being forced to vote for a status quo centrist candidate who has done nothing for working people is a good thing?
Who was forced? Or are you just ignoring the first round?
Lesser of two evils. My French colleagues and friends have been complaining about the lack of choice for the last 2 elections.
Let's not forget Le Pen is nasty racist bastard with an awful record. My Moroccan friend has to regularly put up with her influence on the hard of thinking in Paris.
It makes judging your protest vote at the next election much trickier
Well the good news is that in the UK the Tories and Labour appear to broadly agree on most issues, the main difference appears to be implementation and competence, so the choices don't appear to be as stark as they were today in France.
Well macron beat the pollsters, by quite a margin
Relief across Europe
The Tory voters that wanted her to win will be gutted, shame
In some ways they don't need to win, the Farages and Le Pen's of this world win by dragging mainstream parties to the right.
Who was forced?
The size of macron’s victory is clearly a result of left wing voters voting against Le Pen with gritted teeth (as they always were going to do). No doubt macron will spin this as a vote in support of his pro-elite/anti-working people agenda when the opposite is true. Next time he may not be able to rely on the left to bail him (or his centrist replacement) out.
He can't run next time - two terms max isn't it?
Is the result good or bad?
How do people know Le Pen is no good if they don't give her a chance? Yes, she is seen as right wing but in a democracy surely everyone can be voted in/out if she is that "racist".
Not sure why people are so afraid of voting so called "right wing" candidates, it is not as if they can install themselves (herself) forever.
How do people know Le Pen is no good if they don’t give her a chance?
Yeah, she might one of those benevolent nazis.
Not sure why people are so afraid of voting so called “right wing” candidates, if it not as if they can install themselves forever.
That is top drawer trolling right there. Or utter stupidity, difficult to tell. Now where's that meme with the lad out of futurama gone...