Oh this is entertaining, although I am not sure whether you will appreciate it Ed
That was a great read. Thank you.
I've often said that most countries (western ones at least) have the same problems and stuff going on and the current French cluster**** would seem to confirm that.
TV debate with Bardella (franco-algerian-italian origin), Faure (fanco-algerian origin) and Attal (franco-tunisian origin) scrapping this evening. It got a bit surreal at times but Faure (Front Populaire), and Attal (Macron) kept Bardella (le Pen's front man) on the hop. It was very clear who'd paid attention at school and done their homework; Faure and Attal. Bardella kept bringing the debate back to Muslim immigrants which is proabably what his supporters wanted to hear.
First time I've seen Faure in action, the best performance from a left winger in years in a debate. His task being easier than Attal who kept getting reminded of the events of the last 7 years by Faure, a record not easy to defend.
Faure was the only one to dare to show a graph or to try anything pedagogical, which went over the head of Bardella.
The jounalist mainly let them get on with the petty bickering which stopped several times when Bardella finally understood what was being bickered about, realised he'd got it all wrong and was lost for words beyond non/faux. But that won't matter to his supporters, they've understood he hates Muslims and that will do for them.
Bernard Tapie's take on the FN still highly accurate today.
Alpe d'Huez ; voiture balais...
4 mins 40 onwards.
Well that went down pretty much as bar as the polls were saying (bad)
Looks like the left & the centrists plan to block far right candidates a much as they can
https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1807490659256864805?t=Vrp1tpG2HjRW1OeNwXzt_g&s=19
34% nationally which will be adjusted as results come in. I counted in the local polling station and it's clear it will be a triangular second round locally - unless there's trading of seats. I'd be quite happy to vote for the center rather than left if needed. The biggest unknown is whether the orphan republicans (decimated locally) will go left or extreme right. The Front Populaire has done pretty well, now what's needed is a front républicain as in previous elections
and what was the leading story on the BBC news this morning? Football.
Our nearest neighbour is on the verge of electing a far right government whose policies would likely have a direct impact on our country but the most important thing to talk about is a dreary football team from one part of the UK. We're so insular it makes me livid.
France + Trump = Ukraine ****ed.
it’s going to have to be the Germans that bring the voice of sense and reason
Just as soon as they solve their little problem with the far-right by banning them:
France… it should be hanging it head in shame today.
Yup.
Our nearest neighbour is on the verge of electing a far right government whose policies would likely have a direct impact on our country
what impact is it likely to have on us? I don't see it as any more relevent than the south african elections which aren't front page news at all
Our neighbouring countries have far-right governments, notably UK and Italy. The only major impact has been Brexit.
If only 34% had voted Leave I'd have thought it good not bad.
Patience, there's another round to go yet.
Cameron's policies were well to the right of Bardella and he gifted you Brexit. A little perspective please.
what impact is it likely to have on us? I don’t see it as any more relevent than the south african elections which aren’t front page news at all
What do you think a far-right government in France would do about immigration to the UK and those people trying to illegally access trains and lorries to come to the UK?
France is one of the most influential countries in the EU - our largest trading partner. How would a far right French government influence policy in the EU (considering other right-wing gains recently) and between the EU and the UK?
Many people (9.2m) from the UK go on holiday to France every year and more travel through there to go to other countries. How welcoming would a far-right French government be towards all UK citizens wanting to visit?
I don't know the answer to these questions but I'm confident that any lurch to the right in France will have more impact on the UK than the SA elections.
Our neighbouring countries have far-right governments, notably UK and Italy.
The UK does not have a far right govt.
Patience, there’s another round to go yet.
A luxury we won't have in the UK in 2029.
It's going to be far more complicated for us to come together to stop a far right party in the UK election after this one, whatever form and name it takes.
The UK does not have a far right govt.
So why are people saying RN is far right? Because the UK government has enacted policy well to the right of what the RN is proposing. Compare the tow and get back to us with the aspects of RN policy that you consider more to the right than what has been happening in UK. Aspects of UK policy to consider:
Brexit - the RN has backed away from Frexit.
Immigrants to Rwanda - I haven't noticed that in RN policy.
Tax and pensions - remind me of UK retirement age and tax policy
Money laundering - the City is the world's hub
Free ports non proposed in France
Legislation concerning unions - UK rights have been decimated
Freedom of speech - no gag orders in RN policy
And so on. I'm no fan of the RN and in France they are the far-right. However by UK Tory party standards they're amateurs.
The UK does not have a far right govt.
In so much as you don't have guys with jackboots and snazzy uniforms goose stepping round cities and towns rounding up anyone they don't like and sending them to re-education camps.
In that sense, no the UK isn't far right.
By just about every other measure, you do. And they have been taking steps in that direction of varying sizes for the last 14 years.
And so on. I’m no fan of the RN and in France they are the far-right. However by UK Tory party standards they’re amateurs.
Christ why do we have to do this UK vs France thing? It's all very well pointing at the other and shouting 'ha ha you're more right wing than us' but it's pretty silly. The RN are seen as far right because of their history and the people within it being self declared far right radicals. They may be pretending to be a bit friendlier these days but it doesn't change the reality of what they are. The tories on the other hand are the opposite, mostly liberal right of centre types trying to impersonate far right nutters to defend themselves against the real far right insurgents in the form of Reform.
Anyway, once again I'll point out that the success of RN and other far right parties and politicians across the western world is a direct result of the failure and hubris of centrist establishment politics. When the people decide that politics and government do not work for them and only work for tiny elites they will turn to reactionary populists offering easy solutions. If the west wants to suppress this surge in far right politics then it's establishment politicians need to start listening to and delivering stuff for normal people rather than spending all their time telling us what isn't possible and what can't be afforded.
@dazh, I think you are wrong in labelling frn far right while denying that the Tories are, in rhetoric they are really so similar. Of course we don't know how they would govern yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if they swung further right if they did obtain power, but the stated policies are virtually indistinqushable from the tories.
However you hit the nail on the head with this paragraph.
Anyway, once again I’ll point out that the success of RN and other far right parties and politicians across the western world is a direct result of the failure and hubris of centrist establishment politics. When the people decide that politics and government do not work for them and only work for tiny elites they will turn to reactionary populists offering easy solutions. If the west wants to suppress this surge in far right politics then it’s establishment politicians need to start listening to and delivering stuff for normal people rather than spending all their time telling us what isn’t possible and what can’t be afforded.
Because you **** started it !
Don't be silly, I stated the simple fact that the UK doesn't have a far right govt. You might think it does but you'd be in a tiny minority. The similarities between France and the UK are not in how rightwing their govts are, but in how they're both governed by hubristic and self-interested establishment politicians who only serve big business and capital.
They also go far Left. LFI and RN both attract those who feel disenfrachised by the parties that have been in power over the last 15 years.
Don’t be silly
Back to your petty insults, provocation and forgetting about rule #1, Dazh. We've known you for long enough to know that your main role on politics threads is trashing them.
Your "simple facts" just don't hold up to examination as three (edit: four now) members have pointed out.
We’ve known you for long enough to know that your main role on politics threads is trashing them.
Please explain how stating that the tory govt isn't a far right govt is 'trashing the thread'. The only thing that trashes threads in this place is the intolerance of people like yourself for any differing viewpoints. 🙄
Your “simple facts” just don’t hold up to examination as three (edit: four now) members have pointed out.
LOL four people on here saying something doesn't make it a fact. 😂
Stating an opinion isn't trashing it's the dog-at-bone pettiness that goes on for pages and pages and pages and eventually gets to the point anyone with anything constructive to say throws in the towel because discussion is lost in the Dazh bickering with people.
Have a good Summer all.
*throws in towel*
Some interesting perspective - maybe Edukator can comment on whether this is how folks in France see things. Macron's risky strategy.....
throws in the towel because discussion is lost in the Dazh bickering with people.
Ed the only person bickering on this thread is you. If someone offering a different opinion to yourself winds you up so much it's probably best if you do something else for your own wellbeing.
We need to watch this and learn… it might be needed here in 2029.
Are you suggesting Labour should stand down candidates where the tories are second to Reform? I don't see why that would be necessary, FPTP should ensure that Reform get nowhere near govt for a very long time. They'll have a couple of MPs after this election, maybe a few dozen in 2029. Even if they continue to build momentum and support I doubt they'd be anywhere near govt until the 2040s at the earliest. The only thing that needs to happen to keep them out is for Labour to reconnect itself with working people and start delivering policy in their interests rather than the corporate establishment.
We’ve known you for long enough to know that your main role on politics threads is trashing them.
There are a few individuals on STW who have zero tolerance of opinions different to their own, and invariably reduce political threads into deeply unpleasant personal attacks, you are way at the top of that list Ed.
It has the desired affect obviously - all political threads end up becoming echo chambers frequented solely by like-minded individuals.
Your “simple facts” just don’t hold up to examination as three (edit: four now) members have pointed out.
Exactly. Don't expect bullying tactics to create a healthy diverse range of opinions.
There are a few individuals on STW who have zero tolerance of opinions different to their own, and invariably reduce political threads into deeply unpleasant personal attacks
Honestly Ernie, and Ed, the real reason you make political threads hard to read and join in with isn't your views, it's the way you conduct the conversations.
Some interesting perspective – maybe Edukator can comment on whether this is how folks in France see things. Macron’s risky strategy…..
https://twitter.com/joni_askola/status/1807484611435340016/blockquote >
Macron is definitely playing games to me he is more off a third world dictator desperately clinging on to power.Last time he was reellected mainly just based on there is a war in Ukraine to busy to explain what he planned to do and too important time to have change(the last not per se wrong) it worked.
This time he banked on the left infighting and the the fear of extreme left LFI Melenchon which I personally despise or the fear from extreme right. Just banking on fear and spurring on fear and deliberately creating chaos not on what his plans are and what he and his team did.
He's got previous for this when there where big mainstream protest things where orchestrated to get out of hand to then get the people (well mainly the old and frail) to cry for order and push his way through. Seems this time his bluff is finally being called sadly don't think he's gonna realise and resign which is what he should do. But then who Else Neither RN with Le Pen the Left with Melenchon or the Marginalised moderate right have anyone capable or worth running the country. It a Choice between a bunch of ferocious and lethal diseases.
Which you can't understand as Macron Basically ranked up massive debt, let salaries slide and push more people in rubbish jobs by decreasing unemployment rights. Often by avoiding parliament votes pushing laws true whith 49.3 rule more suited for dictators.
It's a sad way of the majority system like in the UK where in France since a long time sadly you just need to make sure to get into the second round against RN and then just say vote for me cos they are pure evil. With little importance for what you plan to do or did.
Foreigner(non UK) living in France for over ten years. Politically its a massive shit show.
Not allowed to vote but would like RN to win not because I believe in them not cause the have their capacity to run the country. But cause the place needs a big bang too kill the system.
But then there is little hope last presidential elections there wasn't one of the main 5-6 candidates worth my vote and/or confidence.
And Molgrips who has absolutely nothing to say about the French Elections piles on in all the same. L'hôpital qui se moque de la Charité
Happy Hols, Molly.
Sorry all, not up to date on the thread or the French electoral system.
Realistically, what is the chance of the left and centrists being able to block the RN at the next vote?
Highly unlikely or a fighting chance?
Cheers.👍
Highly unlikely or a fighting chance?
Depends Do you mean?
1)the left side coming out with a Majority? Almost impossible IMHO
2) The left side being bigger then RN seat wise? Possible say 20 to 30%
3) The left side being big enough so that RN doesn't have half the seats in parliament and the country becomes ungovernable? Quite likely although RN might in that case be saved by a union With the moderate/normal right side but the latter won't have many seat and most are not likely to wanna join RN
That doesn’t alway go well.
I know I have lived in many different and often very undemocratic country's aswell I have little hope for this one but the scenery is nice the food is (very) good the weather my style and the houses are cheap.
We seem to be back on topic - was it the usual suspects shouting at each other about whataboutery.
So it's a bit touch and go whether MAcron's gamble pays off. It does seem that the Right wingers are concentrated in just a few areas from the maps that have been posted on twitter (that I can't now find)
We seem to be back on topic – was it the usual suspects shouting at each other about whataboutery.
So it’s a bit touch and go whether MAcron’s gamble pays off. It does seem that the Right wingers are concentrated in just a few areas from the maps that have been posted on twitter (that I can’t now find)
Nope you got that wrong right wing is ahead in Most of the country with the left coming a not so far behind second Macron's bunch is only third.
You need 289 seats for Majority Macron already didn't have those the why for obsessive use of law 49.3 to bypass a vote and force a law through.
RN is predicted around 200 to 300 seats left wing say 100 to 200
Macron's bunch 50 to à 100 which ca only be seen as a Massive spanking
After round one
Seats already fixed
RN 39 seats left wing 31 Team Macron 2(yes TWO)
4 to some others
500 still up for Grabs but you need to be qualified so not all can play for all of them
its in french but the coloured map is at the end of article https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/legislatives/legislatives-2024-les-resultats-du-1er-tour-en-sept-points-clefs-2104872 coming ahead in the first round doesn't guarantee you to win in 2nd as others might bunch up against you.
So Macron is basically out he will still be President but governement will be other orientated. Well he can still make an alliance with Others Left union or Moderate right but even in that Case his group wil almost sure be a winority partner. He basically reduced presence of his group to half or even a quarter of what he had before(based on predictions game of alliance can have funny results)
Realistically, what is the chance of the left and centrists being able to block the RN at the next vote?
It seems mixed. At least some of Macrons allies have stated they wont work with the LFI and even Macrons terminology could be taken several ways.
The parties of the left are (mainly) making the necessary moves to pull candidates where it will help stop RN, but that hasn’t yet been reciprocated properly by those to the right of them.
The parties of the left are (mainly) making the necessary moves to pull candidates where it will help stop RN, but that hasn’t yet been reciprocated properly by those to the right of them.
quite a few centrists have now pulled out in favour of leftists and theres only 20 odd seats in 3 way constituencies that dont have a centre/left pact of some sort against an RN candidate, Macron has 2 of his ministers who still wont budge on a pact with the left- a sign of how weakened he is & one of them is probably angling to become president in 27 and wants the centre right vote
Question is whether the centre/left voters will get behind these candidates to keep LePen out
lemonde has a really useful tool here to look at it all (google translate in chrome for us monoglots)
and their live blog is great
Thanks.
And to update, with an hour to go before the submission deadline
theres 300ish 3 way run offs
of those 130 left/far left & 82 centrist have withdrawn candidates which is roughly proportional based on the numbers won in the 1sr tound
of the 100 or so remaining most have some sort of pact in place if not a full withdrawl and some rw parties are staying in to try& split the far right vote, its madness!
How much of it is genuine support and how much of it is simply a vote to give the establishment a bloody nose?
Many Brexit voters were fed up here and just voted for something different, irrespective of the consequences
@ElShalimo it certainly is an anti Macron protest vote, to a certain extent. He hasn't exactly showered himself in glory over the years with his lack of empathy. Tapie's broom wagon analogy is still relevant, probably even moreso nowadays.
Le Front National, c’est la voiture-balai du Tour de France. Vous savez, la voiture-balai, c’est celle qui ramasse tous ceux qui n’ont pas réussi. Le Front National, c’est pareil, il ramasse tous ceux qui sont déçus par la gauche et par la droite, ceux qui ne se retrouvent nulle part ailleurs. Mais il ne faut pas se tromper, cette voiture-balai, elle ne mène nulle part, elle ne fait que suivre le peloton et ramasser les débris.
Thanks
assuming the centre/left turn out and vote, theres a good chance LePen wont get near enough for her majority
But Macron will be weakened and blocked from implementing what he wants at home and in Europe, that will make life tougher for the EU & Ukraine
Is this going to be a Brexit moment?
FR_NF_it ?
Is this going to be a Brexit moment?
Doubtful, the right have moved away from that idea, e.g. Geert Wilders in the Netherlands rowed back after his election. Most polls suggest a hung national assembly in France, however, the electorate might not do what the establishment expects, which is to vote to keep RN out
France and a few others are running their economies in contravention of EU fiscal rules on debt and have been for a while, so expect that to continue whether left or right gain sufficient traction. Debt will probably worsen, reversal of certain Macron policies, reduction in co-operation within the EU, etc
I don't mean Frexit, I mean a point that splits the country in two.
You could say that already happened with the gilet jaune movement @molgrips. They were back out on a roundabout near me last week, i'd almost forgotten about them!
First poll on the 2nd round has RN falling pretty well short of the majority
Anyone able to give an intelligent summary of what the recent exit polls mean?
Le Pens boys took one hell of a beating
TLDR: Vivè le France!
Mèlenchon is a bit of an arse but he's in a different league of terrible to the result that was feared.
Great example of what progressives can do if they stop bickering for once.
Haha. I've been thinking this for a while
Each poll saw the popular front numbers grow and the RNs shrink
https://twitter.com/ChrisKimberley/status/1809923500125106428?t=gNm4bENHl3OXcb9dfaRutw&s=19
I bet Reform have wasted a whole lot of time creating content ready to put online in preparation for an RN victory.
Wonderful.
Anyone able to give an intelligent summary of what the recent exit polls mean?
I am not sure its anything to celebrate,
After a battering in the first round the left and centrists have just about managed to make a fragile coalition for round two.
It came close to failing and I wouldnt be surprised if in the presidential elections in a couple of years time it does.
Thank **** for that.
Last thing we needed was a bunch of fascists only 21 miles away.
Now need the Americans to see sense and not elect the orange sub-human felon again. That may be a big ask as there's LOTS of inbreds that are too dumb to see it for what it really is.
Thank **** for that.
Last thing we needed was a bunch of fascists only 21 miles away.
Now need the Americans to see sense and not elect the orange sub-human felon again. That may be a big ask as there’s LOTS of inbreds that are too dumb to see it for what it really is.
I fear the EU will have to go it alone against Russia, we can't bank on the USA for support.
France has to be governed in the meantime and it would appear that the reality to be able to do this is very shaky. As said above, these alliances are very artificial and the general view seems to be that they won't hold together and agree very much at all.
Maybe having the spectre of the far right just over their shoulders will make them more pragmatic!
I am not sure its anything to celebrate,
After a battering in the first round the left and centrists have just about managed to make a fragile coalition for round two.
It came close to failing and I wouldnt be surprised if in the presidential elections in a couple of years time it does.
It isn't just me then! There's a lot of back-slapping going for what isn't a great result for a roll of the dice.
The economy will worsen
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
The last thing progressive parties should do is continue to voice the framework of neoliberalism that has brought the right so close to power. The right are focussing on the problems and giving false answers, it is time the left (and especially the centrists) stopped burying their heads in the sand about the problems of neoliberalism and started arguing for progressive solutions.
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
Increasing the minimum wage tends to increase inflation, you're not just raising minimum wage, you're having to raise each level after that usually due to the gaps being reduced between staff and staff with more responsibility. There is a weird circular effect that means those getting payrises, then tend to gain additional costs due to inflation.
The pensions age is a huge issue, in France it went up from 62 to 64, so to go back down without the working years guarantee would bring a lot more costs onto the governments books over the period in office.
Increasing the minimum wage tends to increase inflation,
That is just neolibral dogma, and frankly absolute bollocks.
The following is just a few anecdotes from a recent trip - not 100% sure why I'm sharing, but some of it's given me things to think about.
I happened to be staying in Nantes for a few nights last week. On the 1st night, me and my mate went for a wander and found a local event called Les Jeux de Bretagne (The Brittany Games), there was lots of fun stuff going on (bands, booze, pottery-based-basketball), but on the way in someone tried handing us National Rally flyers. Other than that it was a great event.
We wandered on from there to do some sight-seeing, after a while we spotted a street with lots of bars/cafes etc so headed down there (many had rainbows, so I assumed a pretty liberal area). We spotted the Euros playing on a screen in one bar and went in to catch the 2nd half. While in there we got chatting to the locals, it was one of those random nights - someone get a round of drinks in - it turns out to be the landlords birthday - another round - much merriment - left a lot later than intended - woke feeling pretty rough the next morning, but we'd had a good time. We decided to try to find the bar again a day or 2 later, and found it with the shutters down - shutters that had "RN" in huge graffiti bubble-writing on them.
shutters that had “RN” in huge graffiti bubble-writing on them.
Round here (Germany) the graffiti artists have been painting the EU flag on telekom boxes.
This looked like a commissioned piece rather than random graffiti, in fact they have it set as their cover photo on their Facebook page
(not sure why Andy Capp is on it...)
Why should raising the minimum wage and rolling back pension ages make the economy worse?
They weren't specifically linked sentences, however, the European Commission noted the following in its review of the European economy:
"France continues to experience imbalances. Vulnerabilities related to high government debt, and competitiveness and low productivity growth...". Increasing the retirement age would help increase productivity because there would be less frequent churn of experienced workers.
Pensions are also linked to debt, "According to the September 2022 projections by the pension advisory council (Conseil d’orientation des Retraites, COR), the current pension system would accumulate deficits in the long term of EUR 12.4 billion in 2027, EUR 13.5 billion in 2030 and EUR 21 billion in 2035. The measures envisaged by the reform are expected to bring the system back to balance by 2030, thanks to net savings..."
President Macron has broken his days of public silence with a letter to the press, so clearly not the result that he gambled on https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-left-centrists-tussle-form-government-2024-07-10/
He can say that as a result of the election that France doesn't have a far-right PM, but that wasn't the case before the election anyway.
The election put the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) ahead on seats in the left-wing alliance (NFP). The LFI has views on NATO, the EU and Israel that aren't mainstream in France
@edukator choice, Raphaël Glucksmann has suggested the more moderate Laurent Berger as PM, what's your take, Ed?
The LFI has views on NATO, the EU and Israel that aren’t mainstream in France
How much out of odds are they with mainstream public opinion? According to a YouGov poll a week ago only 13% of French voters sympathise with Israel most:
https://yougov.co.uk/international/articles/45869-attitudes-israel-palestine-conflict-western-europe
And whilst I don't doubt that NATO membership is popular how widespread is that popularity? I can't imagine that it is that popular, certainly not as popular as in Britian, even conservative politicians have a long history of holding NATO at arms length due to US dominance over the alliance. When I did my military service France wasn't even a member of NATO and that was under a right-wing president. Obviously it did work closely with NATO though, but it wasn't integrated into the NATO command structure.
