Is there method to Macron's madness?
He saw Sunak launching the worst political campaign in history & said, hold my Merlot...
Theres a school of thought that he's played a blinder, by forcing the country to ask if they want to be ruled by the putin sympathising far-right after they scored well in the European elections and that he would probably be facing a revolt & potential collapse anyway to get his budget passed later in the year.
Even if he loses he thinks they will be so incompetent theyll be out within a few years
Cameroonian arrogance or Starmer-like genius?
Its certainly put le chat amongst les pigeonnes, the far-left are infighting, the head of the right wing party proposed an alliance with LePenn and promptly saw many of his MPs quit, he's now barricaded himself inside the party headquarters to stop their executive firing him
Starmer-like genius?
It might be an idea to wait and see how he performs as prime minister before awarding him accolades like that.
Currently personal approval polls suggest that voters aren't particularly struck by Starmer's genius like qualities.
He saw Sunak launching the worst political campaign in history & said, hold my Merlot…
Sorry, but that was the line I focused on!
It risks being a Referendum like gamble - lots of other issues creating a groundswell of a protest vote. Not sure what a right wing victory would mean for us and the rest of Europe.
Its actually very worrying and Macron could well have got it very wrong
That depends on what the alternative plan was/is.
Could be on balance of probabilities it was the best decision. Even if it goes wrong it's not necessarily a bad decision if all roads were leading to the same destination anyway.
I'm currently thinking there is method to the madness by forcing the country to make a quick decision on what moral base it wants to sit upon. I haven't spoken to any French colleagues yet so it will be good to get their take on events.
Nice use of French imagery OP I enjoyed that.
To be fair the Starmer genius is in contrast to the mess Cameron made of the country so I am comfortable with the phrase.
Even if it goes wrong it’s not necessarily a bad decision if all roads were leading to the same destination anyway.
It is still extremely worrying! I think some people might be underestimating the crisis across the Channel.
Let me help you develop a sense of panic:
Millennials and first-time Gen Z voters are among those predicted to pull rightwards. Figures gathered recently for the Financial Times newspaper suggest around a third of young French voters and Dutch under-25s, and 22% of young German voters, favour their country’s far right. This is a significant increase since the last European Parliament election in 2019.
It is still extremely worrying! I think some people might be underestimating the crisis across the Channel.
Let me help you develop a sense of panic:
It is, but I don't think all hope is lost.
Take a look at the EU results from the nordic countries, mostly countries where the far right have recently been allowed into the government. Voters haven't been quite so keen on them once they've seen what they do with a sniff of power.
One lesson Macron and others could take from all this is that ignoring young people is only going to lead them to parties that say they are taking their issues seriously. Even if they really aren't.
I don’t think all hope is lost.
I am not sure that anyone has suggested that all hope is lost.
Even the Vichy government was eventually defeated
But a far-right government in France would be a disaster for anyone to the left of the Tory Party.
One lesson Macron and others could take from all this is that ignoring young people is only going to lead them to parties that say they are taking their issues seriously.
Ah, I had forgotten, it was you who was claiming recently that everything is the fault of the older generations and that the younger generations have a much healthier political outlook, wasn't it?
I have no idea why you apparently now think that younger generations are so gullible that they might believe the far-right when they say that they take "their issues seriously"?
To be fair the Starmer genius is in contrast to the mess Cameron made of the country so I am comfortable with the phrase.
TBF Cameron was seen as a genius right up until his last gamble went pearshaped.
For OP it is notable that he hasnt put his own position at risk.
So seems like his plan is:
Hopefully win.
If not by the 27 presidental elections they will have proved themselves incompetent and hence he will win.
One theory concerning Macron's apparent madness:
And to back up the claim made in the link above that banks won't lend to the far-right in France:
Le Pen’s National Rally pays off Russian loan ahead of EU elections
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-national-rally-pays-back-russia-loan/
Le Pen is going to need a very quick loan from Putin, will she have time?
Ah, I had forgotten, it was you who was claiming recently that everything is the fault of the older generations and that the younger generations have a much healthier political outlook, wasn’t it?
Yay, the old guys with all the wealth want to slag off the young. I love this game.
So yes, just to reiterate, the boomers have been the largest bloc of voters for 50 years in most countries in Europe. And right across Europe politicians have been pandering to the largest bloc of voters for 50 years and now, surprise surprise, boomers own everything and there is nothing left for the young.
That can manifest itself as a healthier outlook where the focus is on a fairer distribution across all society or it can manifest itself as mistakenly putting the blame on brown people. I guess it depends on your background and the culture you come from.
So yes, it is still your fault, I'm afraid.
And just remember, you were the one who decided to bring the thread down this avenue.
And just remember, you were the one who decided to bring the thread down this avenue.
Nope, not me, I am not in the least bit interested in making a distinction between the generations with regards to politics.
You were arguing with other people, not me. I fully accept that in the UK younger voters are more left-wing than older voters.
I found the whole debate rather pointless (with regards to where it went) and kept out of it.
I am not sure that anyone was 'slagging off the young' though, as you claim.
Macron would have to leave office soon anyhow due to the rule on how many presidential terms one person can hold. Probably self-interest/roll the dice, nothing more complicated than that from an ambitious narcissist
Well Les Republicans have booted out their leader, no right wing alliance with LePen!
Whether they'll ally with Macron now, I have no idea!
Probably self-interest/roll the dice, nothing more complicated than that from an ambitious narcissist
You haven't explained how it might be self-interest from an ambitious narcissist. Any clues?
Macron has always suffered from arrogance, this kind of shows us it again, he's out anyway in 2027, as only allowed 2 consecutive stays in office, no talk of coming back after though, might go away for a while until it gets a bit more like it was a decade ago for him and his party.
It's a shame, as he came in with some potential promise, but soon fell into the same old same old mould of previous incumbents, if La Pen gets in, well it'll not be good for the EU, or immigration, they'll make any of our parties talks of clamping down look like a ray of sunshine compared to what La Pen and her lot are after. I believe this type of scenario is also a huge reason Germany didn't want the UK to leave the EU, another benefit of Brexit 😟
If the French want to let Fascism out the bag, then fair enough, thats their choice, though last time Fascism played in France, things didnt go too well or end too well.
But lets see them trying to get it back in again
though last time Fascism played in France, things didnt go too well or end too well.
Actually it provided the seeds which grew to eventually become the EU.
The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.
Let Pens even more right wing niece ranting about the equally far right Zamouur not teeming up with her partty
https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1800939843414843495?
The far left parties meanwhile have come to an agreement, they could be key and ultimately end up putting LePen(Bardella) in powers
The far left parties meanwhile have come to an agreement, they could be key and ultimately end up putting LePen(Bardella) in powers
They have agreed to vote for the NR?
It will come as a huge relief to the centrists that will be able to blame someone else.
I'm in town for the first round so that's easy, I just vote. However the second round I need someone for a procuration and that's not going to be easy because I'm not so sure socialists I'd normally have trusted to vote for me haven't joined the RN ranks.
There's something of a Brexit going on in French society on a right-left divide. There hadn't used to be much difference between the camps but there's now a societal clash that's straining friendships. In the MTB club there used to be a couple of overt Le Pen supporters, an ex-CRS and a bus controller - under 10% of the membership. No-one was bothered we get along fine. There are now a bunch with far right rhetoric who form a clique but don't have the courage to go public. It's easy to know which clique people put themselves in on whom they ride next to.
I voted Glucksmann in the Europeans and will do so again in the first round. Second round it's always damage limitation unless your first choice is still standing.
The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.
This is all in Ernie's head BTW. You've been making more sense recently, Ernie, but your hate of the EU gets in the way of objectivity on some issues.
I would do exactly the same in Macron’s position. You have to let people see the hard right for what they are : a bunch of racists with no real policies.
The hard part is convincing people of this. Sometimes lessons are learned the hard way…
We've always got to remember that part of the French populous were Nazi sympathisers, and some even Nazi supporters. Not all were in favour of the Resistance. Especially in the South (Vichy etc as previously pointed out). Just like in England, that support for fascism still exists in France.
I'm sure this is Macron's move to shake the more pleasant people out of their slumber. Desperately hope it works. Because history on this side of the Channel is that it can backfire - Cameron's gamble with the country's future going wrong big style.
Got to hope the French masses are not as stupid as many of the English were.
Students home from uni, teachers still obliged to be present, workers not on holiday, probably good weather; timing isn't going to favour extreme right. The budget deficit is biting and banks downgrading, if you're going to throw in the towel as the shit hits the fan now is as good a time as any if you want to drop your successor in the shit. My main worry is Ukraine; anything that weakens France's support for Ukraine is not good for Europe as a whole.
I think some of you need reminding that the French didn't vote the fascists into power in WWII, they rocked up uninvited in 40 and installed a puppet government in Vichy to do their dirty work. The numbers of enthusistic fascists in 40 was low, as was the number of résistants de la première heure.
My first WTF was when school uniforms were introduced as a trial. It's always been a no-no because of the links to fascism so seeing kids in a uniform is a very visible sign of how far right things have already gone. I reckon that if they introduce uniforms in Madame Edukator's school she'll be out the door to early retirement (masters and doctorate on French resistance history).
I hope you're correct for the sake of my Moroccan friend, her family and millions like her who feel alienated by the rise of Le Pen & her chums over the last 10+ years
The Vichy and Nazis governments synchronised their economies which provided the blueprint for The European Coal and Steel Community, which in turn laid the foundations for the EEC, and finally resulted in the EU.
This is all in Ernie’s head BTW. You’ve been making more sense recently, Ernie, but your hate of the EU gets in the way of objectivity on some issues.
I can't change historical facts to suit my agenda Ed. Although you'll obviously give it a go! 😉
https://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1028/
Finally, it reveals that although the Organisation Committees were formally abolished in 1946, Jean Monnet created parallel bodies, named Modernisation Commissions, which took over the functions and carried on the work of Vichy’s Committees under the auspices of the Monnet Plan. By demonstrating the continuities of institutions and individuals in French industrial organisation from 1940 to 1946, or l’entre-deux-républiques, this thesis contributes to the history of Vichy and post-war France and re-evaluates the origins of the Monnet Plan and of the European Coal and Steel Community, the forerunner to today’s European Union.
And btw get a grip I don't "hate" the EU. You might see institutions in terms of love and hate but I don't. I consider the EU to be inherently anti-democratic and racist. Since its inception it has been firmly under the control of conservative and reactionary forces. I don't see it as a progressive force.
I can't change the facts behind its origins, which includes the role of the Vichy government.
Edit: For the record I was somewhat more sympathetic towards the EEC, although I did accept Michael Foot's and Tony Benn's critique of it. The EU which the Tories took us into was a whole new ball game.
Can you be somewhat sympathetic to other posters on political threads and have a rest to give others a chance?
I'm asking on behalf of an exasperated fwend....
Fill yer boots
So you dig out an obscure thesis, ignore what it actually states try to rewrite post war history yourslef, Ernie. When Madame Edukator was writing her resistance history thesis she was very careful to write actual history and not to write a coloured version of it.
The author incorrectly uses the word "parallel" which misleads. They were not parallel, one stopped at the end of the war, another was started. Sure the same individuals were still doing similar jobs just like the police, mayors, factory workers, fonctionaires... but the difference was they were at the service of a democratic republic and not Vichy which was German controlled. Requests from Germany were orders not French initiatives. There were some Vichy initiatives such as the provision of labour for working on the Atlantic wall but it was mainly toeing the line. The link to the formation of the steel and coal union is mightily tenuous.
The 1951 coal and steel union was formed with Italy, Holland, Germany, Belgium and Luxemburg with the stated objective of avoiding a situation in which one country could dominate the production of armes. If you can't see that international agreement has naff all to do with how steel and coal was oraganised during the occupation when the Germans were imposing their will you're going down a conspiracy theory hole as you're inclined to do.
I would like to remind STWers that although you are a French national your only contact with France that you have revealed on this forum is doing French national service. And that despite being one of the people most vunerable to Brexit you supported it which speaks volume about your understanding of European politics. In short you are speaking from and position of ignorance and desperately using a browser to find things that support your own very special version of world history. If you really want to understand the origins of the EU look to the Marshall plan and the US of A. First Gooogle result in English:
https://www.economist.com/europe/2021/06/17/the-eu-made-in-america
Madame Edukators thesis which I proof read multiple times was based on interviews with maquis (resistance) members and covered their political influence in the immediate post war period. A degree of continuity in the organisation of the country was inevitable and even disireable. The EU was not a Vichy derived organisation, it was a part of the international political moves to ensure a peaceful cooperation between European nations rather than conflict.
Good thread here on the current situation in France.....
https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1801114239572328663
I would like to remind STWers that although you are a French national your only contact with France that you have revealed on this forum is doing French national service. And that despite being one of the people most vunerable to Brexit you supported it
Goodness me Ed the only person that goes on about my "Frenchness" is you, not me. It is totally irrelevant to this thread - people who have no claim at all to being French are also entitled to express an opinion you know!
And why the need to constantly "remind STWers" that I am opposed to the EU, I have already made that abundantly clear on this very page, do you think that it will help you somehow to "win" the argument?
Thanks for the history lesson above btw, here is a more detailed history lesson by The Society for the Study of French History:
https://frenchhistorysociety.co.uk/834/
I have no idea why you have such a problem with the concept of Monnet using the example provided by wartime Organisation Committees as a blueprint for the Modernisation Commission it doesn't make the EU "bad" because of that legacy, the idea was fully supported by the Resistance and the Communist Party - hardly fascist sympathizers! Is it because it is unthinkable to you that the far-right has provided any sort of legacy to European integration?
You wait until I tell you about the Union Movement....... it will blow your mind!😉
Btw Moseley lost the argument because postwar Britian still had an empire, the League of Empire Loyalists, for example, were very influential within the Tory Party, but he was smart enough to understand that the empire, and the continuing subjugation of brown and black people, had no future, and instead strength and the way forward would be through a united Europe. A white Christian Europe of course.
In short you are speaking from and position of ignorance
I doubt it’s ignorance. That would suggest innocence. Past posting on this fake far right origin of European integration and cooperation suggests he knows exactly what he’s doing. Just don’t bite, and ignore the anti EU conspiracy nonsense. Move on. It’s not worth it.
I don't normally click Twitter/X but made an exception for that thread.
"These have undoubtedly been the wildest 72 hours in French politics in my lifetime. Pretty incredible stuff."
Really profound, not. To be fair he's very young and probably hasn't taken much interest in politics for most of his years.
The Fillon affair, DSK, Rainbow warrior, Sarkozy, Cahuzak... if you're looking at scandal or 68-69, 81 or 2017 if you're looking for significant political turnarounds.
I see you're doubling down on your conspiracy bollocks, Ernie.
And you're right, Kelvin
It's a public forum, and Ernie has years of practice at winding people up and trashing politics threads. I remind him of his origins as it's EU membership that enabled him to prosper in the UK, it gave him rights where he had none. Even the withdrawal agreement which has allowed him to remain in the UK was down to the persistance of Barnier/the EU. And what's with not applying for British nationality, Ernie?
And most importantly who are you voting for in the French elections, Ernie? Because you definitely have a vote if you can be bothered to use it. Your euroscepticism limits your choice to some pretty unsavoury bed partners.
I've said I'm voting for Glucksman, and you ?
Is there method to Macron’s madness?
Yes, he's already said that he won't resign regardless of the outcome, so he's safe in post until 2027
He can say that he attempted to sort out an assembly that's frequently been at loggerheads since 2022
Politicians can enjoy the shortest possible time for chasing around the campaign trail
It's all about the legacy
fake far right origin of European integration
There is nothing "fake" about the far-right postwar commitment to European integration.
https://www.oswaldmosley.com/european-declaration/
Postwar Mosley used his contacts with former nazis and Italian fascists to set up the National Party of Europe, unfortunately for him the only ones who had any sort of electoral success was the Italian MSI party, whose successors are now part of the current Italian government, and the far-right in the UK abandoned him in favour of the League of Empire Loyalists.
I am not sure that ignoring awkward facts because they don't fit into a preferred narrative is very useful to anyone.
Personally I like to confront the truth and if it sits awkwardly with my preferred narrative I will consider changing my way of thinking, I don't simply ignore it!
Yikes, first poll not looking good for Macron (or France), his party have improved their showing from the Euros but LePen still sitting pretty
https://twitter.com/elabe_fr/status/1800942735165120513
A lot could change over the next few weeks, but a mountain to climb
It’s all about the legacy
There are also the olympics. Before he called an election it was heading for a complete fiasco. He's no doubt hoping that giving people a voice just before it starts will allow planes to fly, trains to run, roundabouts to be circumnavigated... .
And for your edit Ed:
It’s a public forum, and Ernie has years of practice at winding people up and trashing politics threads. I remind him of his origins as it’s EU membership that enabled him to prosper in the UK, it gave him rights where he had none. Even the withdrawal agreement which has allowed him to remain in the UK was down to the persistance of Barnier/the EU. And what’s with not applying for British nationality, Ernie?
And most importantly who are you voting for in the French elections, Ernie? Because you definitely have a vote if you can be bothered to use it. Your euroscepticism limits your choice to some pretty unsavoury bed partners.
I’ve said I’m voting for Glucksman, and you ?
Can you try not to turn every thread on which you disagree with me into personal thing about me?
I suspect not but try to give a go anyway. The outrage me having a different opinion to you causes you is bizarre. How do you deal with your day-to-day life where you must be constantly meeting people with different opinions?
Or iz it coz iz french?
I think you're forgetting that the French electoral system is a two round system and any analysis that doesn't include predictions for rapports de voix in the second round dosen't tell you much, Kerley. The RN candidates that can get 50% in the first round will get in (very few), but not many of those that lead after the first round will get over the second hurdle.
And can't you find anything other than Twitter/X to link.
Fillon wiped out the Republicans, Macron has left Renaissance seriously injured, the socialist vote has been split in two... but come the second round all that matters is how those who've lost their candidates chose to go, leftish or far right. I think/hope that RN is too far right to pick up votes from other parites apart from a few Republicans (not many left, most are already RN) and a few LFI.
Or iz it coz iz french?
No.
It's because you're a Brexity, europhobic, conspiracy theory loving, marxist Liberal Democrat with a long history of trashing political threads and getting more than a bit personal with me and others. Clear ? 🙂
And a tip, there isn't another member on STW dumb enough to think that link to Mosely in any way supports your view that Vichy fascists were at the origin of the EU. People who read this forum aren't even a little bit as thick as you take them for.
It’s because you’re a Brexity
Jeezus give it a break, so I don't support the EU. It's not unusual for left-wingers to oppose the EU you know. Currently Mick Lynch is an obvious example, and another obvious example was Tony Benn. In the case of Benn he was even more hostile to the EEC than I was.
Stop pretending that my opposition to the EU is some sort of personal affront purely designed to wind people up. Obviously you would prefer that I didn't express any opinions different to yours but I can't see the value of political debates based on everyone having identical opinions.
there isn’t another member on STW dumb enough to think that link to Mosely in any way supports your view that Vichy fascists were at the origin of the EU.
Don't be ridiculous, the link to Mosely was simply to point out that postwar many on the far-right supported European integration. A perfectly valid point to make as many people are unaware of that, and the schism that occurred between pan-European nationalists and Empire loyalists, the consequences of which we are still experiencing today.
You obviously prefer that historical facts were ignored. Including that during the Vichy government much of the German and French economies were synchronized. Of course they were, both were formable European industrial powers and allies. Much of the structures of this integration was used as a blueprint in the Monnet Plan.
And why not? It was a perfectly sensible postwar plan which as I previously pointed out was backed by both the anti-Vichy Resistance and the anti-Vichy Communist Party.
I certainly don't condemn it. But it would be disingenuous to pretend that this didn't eventually lead to the European Coal and Steel Community and so on.
Now let's please leave your apparent obsession with my veiws on the EU, and how French you think I really am, and instead let's talk about the French elections and the extremely real threat posed by the French far-right, what do you reckon?
This thread is about the 2024 election.
If you want a thread on conspiracy bollocks and propaganda about the EU, start one. If you want to link fascist propaganda, start another thread. If you want a thread about Vichy France start one.
I'm quite happy to contribute on-the-ground reporting from France but this isn't the place for your rewritten history.
It's 2024.
Your reluctance to post about who you intent to vote for suggests it's Bardella/Le Pen. Go on who are you going to vote for?
Your reluctance to post about who you intent to vote for suggests it’s Bardella/Le Pen. Go on who are you going to vote for?
FFS in case you hadn't noticed this thread isn't about me, despite your obsession with my opinions.
But yeah, you've got me bang to rights, I'm voting far-right in the French elections, there's obviously no pulling the wool over your eyes mate!
So now that we have established that I am in fact a far-right neo-nazis how about some of your "on-the-ground reporting from France" which you have so unselfishly offered.
What can you tell us.......is my far-right party going to win? What's the latest - is it proving to be as much fun as the UK election? I bet it isn't.
Finally!
, I’m voting far-right in the French elections
Thank you for your honesty, viewers will now know that it's my Glucksman views versus your far right views.
What can you tell us…….is my far-right party going to win?
I doubt it, but they'll do better than they've ever done before.
I suppose it w ould be pushing you too far to ask which far right party you are going to vote for:
RN
The Frexit bunch, Asselineau and his UPR
Alliance Royale (this would fit quite well with your love of the British royals)
(this would fit quite well with your love of the British royals)
Ah, I wasn't aware that I was a royalist as well. It makes sense though I guess.
Any interesting UK Tory style gaffes that you can report on?
Is it just me or is anyone else finding it massively ironic that the UK appears to be heading in the opposite direction to the rest of Europe on the political spectrum (yeah I know Starmer is a tory etc). When the brexiteers said that the EU was on the brink of collapse and we should get out for our own good I doubt this is what they had in mind. Funny old world!
the french meme game is next level
https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1801536304611549189
Is it just me or is anyone else finding it massively ironic that the UK appears to be heading in the opposite direction to the rest of Europe on the political spectrum
Its certainly true in France, but in Sweden, Finland, Czech, Portugal, Holland far right parties underperformed compared to predictions, even Germany they were predicted to do better than they did -though still beating Scholz into second, but compare to the last 2 UK EU elections where BXP came 1st & Tories were in 3rd & 5th!! & we are now a few days away from a 200 seat Labour majority
Poland has shifted to the left (as have many esatern european countries) And Wilders after 6months is only just about able to form a government, but his party were shocked not to become the largest party in the EU elections
The collapse in Green support has tied with a rise in Far right parties- Meloni did well, but VonDerLeyens EPP group are still the main group and she will be pleased with that
I used to vote green in the european elections. This time I didn't for two reasons: 1/there were three green parties none of which a had a hope in hell. 2/ I voted for the left-wing candidate with the best chance of beating the RN, unfortunately he lost by 49 votes. I think the same will happen in the legislatives, green voters who are generally around the center or left of center will vote for the party most likely to beat the RN.
Slow hand clap for Macron. 🙄
https://twitter.com/rnaudbertrand/status/1801947916720103796?s=46&t=LtLH_brmYFWrcPalxgEeWA
Macron's dissolution of the French parliament is one of the stupidest moves ever by a French president.
Surely that won't be known until after the 2027 presidential election? In the meantime Macron remains president and continues to enjoy all the huge executive powers which a French president has - much more than many other leaders in liberal democracies.
It seemed highly probable that the RN would win the presidency in 2027, if three years of chaotic RN government scuppers that then the gamble will have paid off.
...and continues to enjoy all the huge executive powers which a French president has – much more than many other leaders in liberal democracies
Depends what you're referring to, but President Macron will lose most of his executive powers with the loss of his majority. That's been a problem since 2022
If he loses badly then he'll have little say in the assembly. He's head of the military and can authorise nuclear weapon use, but that's about it. He can dissolve the Assemblée Nationale, but he's just done that.
In theory he can do other stuff, like appoint his choice of PM, but the reality is that won't happen because he'll trigger votes of no confidence. Jacques Chirac is an example of that reality
Won't he be able to veto all legislation at least once?
Edit:
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/how-powerful-frances-president
French presidents have more power than the leaders of most other advanced democracies, including Germany, the United Kingdom, and, arguably, the United States. They not only command the executive apparatus, including the armed forces, but tend to drive the national policymaking agenda with little parliamentary oversight.
It isn't that simple if he cohabits, i.e. he is forced to appoint an opposition PM. That will happen if the polls are accurate
... from your link
Executive power is awkwardly shared during periods of cohabitation, and presidents often choose to focus more on diplomacy and security matters, which are exclusively their province.
So in many ways that is excellent news for Macron. If his strategy in calling an early general election is indeed the belief that three years of chaotic RN government will scupper their chances of winning the next presidential election then the fact that they won't be able to deflect the blame for any failings onto him is great.
With their growing and very significant support confirmed in last week's European elections wasn't it reasonably certain to assume that they would in all likelihood win the next presidential election? They got fairly close to doing so last time.
Three years is easily enough time to discredit an inept political party in government. Obviously the strategy will fall apart if the RN government performs well.
Otherwise it will have been a genius move. The newly elected president will be able to dissolve the RN controlled National Assembly claiming that they need the backing of the NA for their personal mandate from the people.
The RN government will have been a failed three year far-right government, and nothing more than "a detail of history", to paraphase Marine Le Pen's neo-nazi father.
I don't think Macron believes this will result in an RN government. You can't win a French election unless you pick up votes in the second round when people lose their prefered candidates. So the result depends on the "rapports de voix", how voters who have lost their prefered candidate vote in the second round. In elections where the FN/RN have been in the two party vote off the other parties have almost invariably called for a "front républicain" against the RN/FN. So republicans/centrists/communist/greens bite the bullet and vote socialist if it's socialist versus RN, and socialists vote centrist/republican if it's republican or centrist versus RN etc..
In Short, Macron is relying on a Front Républicain to return an assembly in which the RN/FN is in the minority. Even if this is the case the assembly will be more disparate than ever before and totally unmanageable. To function there would have to be some fairly unholy alliances I can't see working. It's going to be chaos. And don't underestimate "la rue". If the RN have a majority at the assembly or are part of a right wing alliance best have a good stock of tinned food at home.
OH yeah, the scadalous stuff Ernie asked for. Mélenchon has just named a wife beater given a suspended jail sentence as candidate and excluded LFI's two most visible competant potential candidates who he doen't get along with. Tit.
So in many ways that is excellent news for Macron.
Yes, but you have to consider the numbers; it's a huge gamble by anyone's standards.
I said on the Ukraine thread that President Macron didn't have a choice, "A secret poll commissioned by LR in December 2023 gives a majority of RN deputies in the Assembly in the event of dissolution, leading to cohabitation. Victory is possible: never abstain again. If the people vote, the people win!" https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/03/leaked-secret-poll-gives-le-pen-majority-in-french-parliament/
There's a far-right surge in the EU and plenty of countries outside the EU willing to add their experience and resources to help extremists in the EU's second largest economy. Who knows what will happen in three years?
After four years, Donald Trump lost to Joe Biden 46.8%:51.3%. Brexit 52%:48%. Hardly convincing wins for what should be clear outcomes; the margins are likely to be tight and not what you'd bet everything on
In elections where the FN/RN have been in the two party vote off the other parties have almost invariably called for a “front républicain” against the RN/FN.
That's a fair point. And one which Chirac's 82% vote emphasised. So presumably the European election results didn't reflect the the commitment of the anti-RN vote?
If Macron is indeed looking at defeating the RN how feasible then is the claim that the perceived foolhardy decision to call an early snap election, quickly after the European election, was based on the belief that the RN's warchest would depleted and that they would be unable, without help from Putin, to borrow from the banks to mount an effective campaign?
And I guess that either way Macron might have calculated that if the RN were going to win an election better the legislative elections now rather than the bigger prize of the presidential election in three years time?
Edit: Do they still say vote with your heart in the first round but vote with your wallet in the second round?
The Euros were only one round so there wasn't the possibility of a front républicain in the second round.
You're asking about the feasiblity of a claim I wasn't even aware of and hearing here sounds like pure speculation/invention.
I would argue that the legislatives are the bigger prize as the impotence of cohabiting presidents has demonstrated. The "super powers" of the French president are a myth promoted by anglo-saxon media. An assembly with an opposition president gets on with business, a president with an oppostition assembly goes on jolly jaunts around the world shaking hands.
There are "vote de coeur" and "vote utile" for the first and second rounds but "voter avec son portefeuille" has a very different notion. You vote with your wallet when you make consumer choices. For example buying French strawberries, an electric car or boycotting Nestlé.
Live update, Mélenchon's wife beater mate is out. Good. Now they just have to get rid of Mélenchon himself and the Popular Front will stand a chance.
You’re asking about the feasiblity of a claim I wasn’t even aware of and hearing here sounds like pure speculation/invention.
If refers to the fact that French banks won't loan to the far-right and that following the European elections, plus the fact the RN paid off their existing depts to the Russians last December, their coffers are likely to be completely empty, which would obviously put them at a serious disadvantage when faced with an unexpected snap national election.
Btw I find it strange that the Anglo-Saxon media might want to create a myth concerning the powers of the French president. Why do you imagine they might want to do that? I can't think of any benefits.
The RN doen't have financing problem, it borrows from private individuals:
I'm not in the heads of the people writing stuff for the British media, I can only observe that there's an assumption in many articles and reports that French policy is Macron's rather than government policy. Sure the president can give a lead but it's then down to the assembly, ammendments, possible a 49:3 and then the senate before projects see the light of day. The media are quick to point to the US president's limits but less so the French president's.
Your link doesn't seem to back up the suggestion that the RN doesn't have financing problems, just that the RN has secured loans from individuals. It doesn't claim that this relieves them from any financial problems.
It has been very widely reported over a long period of time, going back to Marine Le Pen's father, that the FN/RN has had loan/debt issues.
Indeed Marine Le Pen has used the RN's inability to secure loans from French banks as justification for accessing Russian loans.
Loans which they apparently struggled to repay:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/6/3/russian-firm-french-far-right-party-settle-10m-debt-dispute
The media are quick to point to the US president’s limits but less so the French president’s.
I have no idea where you get that from. Based on the information which I receive from the "Anglo-Saxon" media I get the impression the US President has awesome levels of executive power, and I imagine the average person in the UK thinks that too. In contrast I doubt that the average person exposed to Anglo-Saxon myths knows or cares about the French president's powers.
The link confirms that the RN had no trouble financing the Euros with private loans. The legislatives should be even easier as they are forecast to win enough seats to repay whatever they borrow. The FN had trouble in the past because it spent lots and didn't win anything so didn't get the money from winning seats. This time they'll do very nicely even if they don't win overall with the number of seats they're likely to get:
Obama couldn't do thing about gun control.
Well yes I appreciate that they get state financing although in the link I posted it said:
In 2018, the French authorities withheld $2.2m of public subsidies normally paid to political parties, pending an inquiry into the alleged misuse of European Union funds.
$2.2m sounds like peanuts.
But okay if that is indeed the case and the RN won't struggle to finance a totally unexpected national election, what do you think is the reason why Macron has called totally unnecessary legislative elections which are highly likely to have dire consequences?
Good point about gun control btw. No US politician is more powerful than the NRA!
I've already given my personal take: give people a voice before the olympics for the timing. I'll add that a motion de censure was becoming inevitable as the LR could no longer be counted on after their Euro débacle. Better call an election now than be forced to by a motion de censure in the less favourable autumn.
Macron justified his decision to call a snap election by claiming that he couldn't ignore "the new political reality" whilst simultaneously claiming that he was totally confident that the RN would be defeated, so in other words no "new political reality" at all.
And I don't understand why he would want to "give people a voice before the olympics", is that really a thing?
The new political reality was defined by the Euros and the fact that Renaissance was no longer sure of finding enough allies to either govern or survive a motion de censure. Being confident that RN would be defeated is based on the Euro results and the likely rapport de voix in a second round likely to be dominated by a front républicain.
The Olympics is enough of a "thing" to get a mention in many of the comments on the timing of the election along with the start of the school holidays.
I'm not presenting anything controversial here. Apart from my view that the Olympics are a signicant part of the election timing and a personal contempt for Mélenchon you won't find anything I've presented that isn't in mainstream commentary. Even my contempt for Mélenchon is mainstream among the moderate europhile left:
A bit like Binners' view of "magic grandad", a liability to his party.
Being confident that RN would be defeated is based on the Euro results and the likely rapport de voix in a second round likely to be dominated by a front républicain.
Okay I guess that we will know soon enough if that confidence was well placed, and it all pans out according to the script - 3 weeks I think?
Two weeks to the first round, three weeks to the second round.
Enjoy your trip to 21, Cromwell Road. 🙂 Junior has already been to Pariser Platz 5
Has it changed from 2 weeks between rounds to 1 week?
No I won't be voting. My links with France have become far too remote.
Edit: I only go to Cromwell Road when my passport needs renewing!
Good point, it is normally two weeks.
Oh this is entertaining, although I am not sure whether you will appreciate it Ed
I particularly liked this:
As one of their posters puts it: Look, We’ll Fight About it Later.
And this:
The French like a laugh as much as any of us, but are constitutionally allergic to being the butt of the joke.
Read in the spirit it's written that's a pretty good summary from the Guardian.
I've had to stop watching TF1 and get my news from France 2 and France Inter, like watching a storm from behind a reinforced glass window, un spectacle des éléments déchaînés.
