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It’s likely a prelude to an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon
You would have thought but all the evidence so far suggests that it isn't.
He’s just posted this. Yet more hilarity. Those zionists eh? They do like a laugh
Is he based in the uk? If so that post is straying into hate speech territory...
Seems like Israel’s final solution to the Palestinian ‘problem’ was already very well planned.
Honestly it isn't, that is the whole reason why Israel is in total chaos in dealing with the worst crisis it has ever faced.
It is a deeply polarised and divided society which cannot agree on the extraordinarily limited options they have in front of them.
Israel is losing its "war" Gaza, it is not defeating Hamas in any significant way and it is costing them massively economically, militarily, and politically, plus it is increasingly isolating them internationally.
A ground invasion of Lebanon would be suicidal, if it can't defeat Hamas it has considerably less chance of defeating Hezbollah, and all out war with Iran would quickly bring the collapse of Israel.
Yes Israel has access to the most advanced weaponry in the world and it can destroy a lot and kill a lot but it is a tiny country with a small population, a small land mass, and little resources, it simply cannot sustain a long intense war, like Iran could, it can't sustain its war in Gaza. There is a reason why the 6 Day War was so successful......it only lasted 6 days. Those are the sort of wars that Israel can fight.
But perhaps the fact that expanding the war to Iran and Hezbollah would be suicidal for Israel is precisely why Netanyahu appears to be determined to go for that option. The situation with the Palestinians is not sustainable, they are growing every stronger and more determined, Oct 7th proved that, and the support they are recieving internationally ever greater. They are in a stronger position now in 2024 than they were in 1948.
Israeli society is falling apart and it looks as if the game's up for the zionist experiment. Attack Iran and Hezbollah and things will deteriorate rapidly, and this is the gamble...... would the United States allow Israel to collapse with all the consequences of how much it would strengthen those in the region who don't care about vital US interests, such as Iran?
Perceived wisdom says no, the United States would never allow Israel to collapse so this would force the US and its allies into a full-scale war in the region which would, if it goes to plan, destroy Israel's enemies in the region thereby securing Israel's existence. It's obviously a huge gamble but frankly Israel doesn't have a lot of options, the current situation is not sustainable.
This is only really different in that it uses a non-ballistic device and the explosive power of each device is much smaller. But it seems to have wrong footed the international community a fair bit, many of them seem unsure how to respond/comment on pager attacks despite it still being a clear escalatory action.
An important difference is that there is no smoking gun showing that Israel did it. It's widely believed that Israel did it but they haven't acknowledged that and nobody can prove that they did. The people who might be able to prove that Israel did it are the security and intelligence agencies of other countries, but they all utterly loathe Hezbollah too so they will be quite happy to not help out on this one.
Israeli society is falling apart
It really, really, really isn't. Source - I'm here at the moment.
Eh? No smoking gun? The smoking gun is that Hezbollah was targeted. Israel not claiming responsibility is how they have always dealt with issues like that.
No one has any doubt at all that Israel is responsible. If they weren't they would be denying it.
But it seems to have wrong footed the international community a fair bit, many of them seem unsure how to respond/comment on pager attacks despite it still being a clear escalatory action.
I imagine many of them are frantically checking where their own handheld electronics come from and how good the supply chain and security vetting is as well as wondering if they could pull off the same move if they needed to.
Israeli society is falling apart
It really, really, really isn’t. Source – I’m here at the momen.
Well you are hardly going to hear anything other than a positive spin from the government and its agencies.
My many sources include Maj. Gen. Yitzhak Brik, a commited zionist and former IDF ombudsman.
Pagers traditionally dont use rechargeable cells, but use AA cells.
There is an N cell available, same diameter as AA but half the length…….giving space for an explosive material.
Seems quite likely - it would be much easier to switch AAs than gut each pager however deep you are into the supply chain. Likewise the same AAs could possibly go in walkie talkies too. Not sure how would you detonate them though?
Not sure how would you detonate them though?
Isn't the suggestion that an extra circuit was included at the production level?
Well you are hardly going to hear anything other than a positive spin from the government and its agencies.
My source is being in Israel and walking about, seeing people buying cars and eating in restaurants and dancing in nightclubs and going to work and demonstrating en masse against Netanyahu and his government. You know, things that happen in a functional not-falling-apart society.
According to reports they were very hard to detect... swapping out the battery for a half size one plus a lump of explosive doesn't seem very stealthy.
My source is being in Israel and walking about
With respect I think I will trust the assessment of the situation provided by Maj. Gen. Yitzhak Brik former head of Military Colleges and IDF ombudsman rather more than yours.
Even though he paints a picture even more dire than I had imagined - he is expecting Israel to collapse some time next year, which sounds extraordinary.
Btw I suspect that Yitzhak Brik is also walking about.
Btw I suspect that Yitzhak Brik has his own agenda....
Possibly.
it would be much easier to switch AAs than gut each pager
Apparently, that model pager has a lithium battery, not AAA cells.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Apollo_AR924
According to reports they were very hard to detect… swapping out the battery for a half size one plus a lump of explosive doesn’t seem very stealthy.
Reports are that each pager had about 3 grams of explosive, so probably quite easy to disguise within the case. There's no confirmation of where the tampering was done. The obvious way to do it would be to buy a bunch of the same model, fit the explosives and program the malware somewhere secure where you have plenty of time to work, repackage them, then swap the shipment somewhere between the factory and final destination. Warehouse staff, delivery drivers, etc. can be bribed, or your own agents get jobs working in the supply chain.
Yitzhak Brik has his own agenda….
Possibly.
Possibly ? No absolutely Yitzhak Brik has his own agenda. The preservation of the Israeli state. He is a commited zionist.
Netanyahu is destroying Israel. October 7th 2023 was Israel's greatest crises, the very last thing Israel needed was for Netanyahu and his far-right government to take it to where they have taken it.
With respect I think I will trust the assessment of the situation provided by Maj. Gen. Yitzhak Brik former head of Military Colleges and IDF ombudsman rather more than yours.
Well, I mean obviously. If you accepted mine then you'd probably have to rethink all the "end of the Zionist experiment is near, Israel is eating itself" nonsense.
My source is being in Israel and walking about, seeing people buying cars and eating in restaurants and dancing in nightclubs and going to work and demonstrating en masse against Netanyahu and his government.
Ii’m sure you’re correct and things are as normal. Killing Arabs. Voting for a fascist government. Applauding genocide. Everything you expect from a depraved degenerate society built on oppression.
But I’m sure another UN resolution will bring them to their knees.
If you accepted mine
Yours is based on walking around and seeing people buying cars and eating in restaurants, which I have to admit isn't very convincing.
How about Netanyahu declaring Hamas defeated? That would be a tad more convincing.
DrJ, Did you miss the bit about demonstrating against the government or just wilfully ignore it?
Ii’m sure you’re correct and things are as normal. Killing Arabs. Voting for a fascist government. Applauding genocide. Everything you expect from a depraved degenerate society built on oppression
That's the same argument that says all British people voted for Brexit, and pretty insulting to the very large number of Israelis who have never voted for any of this horror.
It's the kind of casual generalisation that leads to the persecution of a "group" and precisely the sort of talk that leads to this kind of nightmare.
I don't recall describing any of that DrJ. You seem keen on tarring an entire population with one brush on the basis of no evidence whatsoever. That's not very cash money of you.
Can you imagine the pile-on if a similar statement was made about Muslims?
I don’t recall describing any of that DrJ. You seem keen on tarring an entire population with one brush on the basis of no evidence whatsoever
Evidence of elections. Israel is a democracy, I keep hearing.
Evidence of elections. Israel is a democracy, I keep hearing.
When Liz the lettuce was PM in UK did her views and policies reflect yours? Boris?
Can you imagine the pile-on if a similar statement was made about Muslims
Saddam was a Muslim. ISIS are Muslims. Etc etc . I don’t remember anyone getting their tights in a tangle when they were criticised?
You asked for my sources so here is one, it was published by the Israeli newspaper Haatetz and is a bit more of an in-depth assessment than yours based on what appears to be shopping trips, but well worth reading:
Most of the pretentious declarations made by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant throughout the war in Gaza have proven to be groundless.
After the occupation of Gaza City, he said that Israel was in total control of the city and its tunnels, and within a short time, Hamas would surrender. After the occupation of Khan Yunis, he claimed that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was running in the tunnels by himself and had lost control of his men, and within a few days he would be caught.
With these pronouncements, Gallant, along with his colleagues IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has been throwing dust in the eyes of the Israeli public.
Recently, it appears that Gallant has begun to sober up, when in the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense committee he declared that the concept of total victory in Gaza "is nonsense."
And it seems that he has begun to realize that failing to reach a hostage deal with Hamas would lead to a regional war that would put Israel in serious danger.
This realization prompted him to call for a discussion, in the government or security cabinet, intending to warn everyone involved. The apparent goal of the discussion is to ensure that responsibility rests not only on him, but is shared by all the government ministers.
I assume that Defense Minister Gallant already understands that the war has lost its purpose. Israel is sinking deeper into the Gazan mud, losing more and more soldiers as they get killed or wounded, without any chance of achieving the war's main goal: bringing down Hamas.
The country really is galloping towards the edge of an abyss. If the war of attrition against Hamas and Hezbollah continues, Israel will collapse within no more than a year.
Terror attacks are intensifying in the West Bank and inside the country, the reservist army is voting with its feet following recurring mobilizations of combat soldiers, and the economy is crashing. Israel has also become a pariah state, prompting economic boycotts and an embargo on arms shipments.
We are also losing our social resilience, as the growing hatred between different parts of the nation threatens to ignite and bring to its destruction from within.
Sinwar and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah understand Israel's dire situation. What Israel could have achieved earlier with a hostage/cease-fire agreement has become impossible due to the new conditions that Netanyahu introduced into the proposed deal. Those involved in the negotiations in Doha claim that they have no maneuvering space to negotiate because their hands are tied.
In light of the new situation, a threat by Iran and Hezbollah to attack Israel in response to the killing of the two senior officials is materializing in the region. The use of assassinations is a step threatening to ignite the entire Middle East, decided upon by the three pyromaniacs, Netanyahu, Gallant and Chief of Staff Halevi, without thinking about the significance of their irresponsible decisions.
Sinwar has begun to understand that the war of attrition is working to his benefit, not to mention a multi-arena regional war. That's why he now prefers a continuation of the fighting to a deal, and is toughening his positions. If Netanyahu hadn't already put spokes in the negotiation team's wheels throughout the war, Israel could already have achieved a hostage deal before Sinwar toughened his stance
Netanyahu’s recent announcement to the families of hostages about the need to preserve “security assets” in Gaza – a blatant lie – has effectively torpedoed the deal, leading to a catastrophe not only for the hostages and their families but also for the entire country.
All of the paths chosen by Israel’s political and military leadership are leading the country down a slippery slope. One dictator controls the fate of the country, and a flock of sheep follows him blindly. Netanyahu decided to “die with the Philistines” – in this case, the citizens of Israel – only to retain his power.
He has lost his humanity, basic morality, norms, values, and responsibility for Israel’s security. Only replacing him and his cronies as soon as possible can save the country. Israel has entered an existential tailspin and could soon reach a point of no return.
After 2,000 years of exile, we returned and established a glorious country. We paid a high price in tens of thousands of dead and wounded. And now the country is disintegrating in our hands through the fault of Netanyahu, Gallant, Halevi, and their pawns. It’s still possible to do something before it’s too late.
Saddam was a Muslim. ISIS are Muslims. Etc etc . I don’t remember anyone getting their tights in a tangle when they were criticised?
By "they" I assume you mean the entire population of Iraq or Syria? To keep the comparison.
When Liz the lettuce was PM in UK did her views and policies reflect yours? Borris?
Liz Truss was not elected by the people. Boris was once and was turfed out due to corruption. He wasn’t elected over and over.
A better comparison is Tony Blair, the only PM to have led the UK into a dirty war comparable to Gaza. He resigned in disgrace.
By “they” I assume you mean the entire population of Iraq or Syria? To keep the comparison.
Well, Iraq was not a democracy so the comparison is hard to make. The entire membership of ISIS, sure.
Liz Truss was not elected by the people. Boris was once and was turfed out due to corruption. He wasn’t elected over and over.
The levels of mental gymnastics involved in keeping the belief alive should be studied.
A better comparison is Tony Blair, the only PM to have led the UK into a dirty war comparable to Gaza. He resigned in disgrace.
Nice edit. OK then, did his views and decision to fight an illegal war reflect the wishes of everyone in the UK, including (I assume) you?
Because that's what you seem to be claiming. That because Netanyahu was elected, every single Israeli supports his policies and is therefore guilty by association of the same war and humanitarian crimes?
Because that’s what you seem to be claiming. That because Netanyahu was elected, every single Israeli supports his policies and is therefore guilty of the same war and humanitarian crimes?
Obviously not. But a free democratic vote reflects the will of the majority. And if the majority keep making the same choice over and over again then you’re entitled to conclude that it’s a dominant proportion of society that holds that view.
Wall of text....
...If Netanyahu hadn’t already put spokes in the negotiation team’s wheels throughout the war, Israel could already have achieved a hostage deal before Sinwar toughened his stance
...wall of text...
That nicely glosses over that earlier in the war Hamas was loudly proclaiming they'd use any ceasefire to re-arm and attack again. And despite that there was a ceasefire in November last year, one which Hamas broke by firing rockets into Sderot.
Well, Iraq was not a democracy so the comparison is hard to make. The entire membership of ISIS, sure.
ISIS was a democracy? Who knew?
DrJ, Did you miss the bit about demonstrating against the government or just wilfully ignore it?
Well I thought I’d ignore it, since Ox ignored this demonstration:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna164213
and it seemed to me that the most effective demonstration is the one you have at the ballot box.
That because Netanyahu was elected, every single Israeli supports his policies
Israel is an extremely divided society and Netanyahu faces massive opposition from both left and right, as my above piece from Haatetz shows. Huge schisms were forming in Israeli society even before Oct 7 last year.
Ironically despite recent demonstrations what has united Israelis the most in the last year is the so-called war in Gaza.
Gen.Yitzhak Brik's opinions certainly represents a minority point of view. Although something like 25% of Israelis say they would now leave Israel if they could.
Edit: A link to my favourite Israeli newspaper:
Despite Flyingox's claims, based on walking around, that everything is hunky dory with Israeli society apparently a quarter of Israelis would get out of the country if they could.
ISIS was a democracy? Who knew?
Logic fail. Try again.
This thread is starting to turn into what the Gaza thread has been warned not to turn into...
I'm not defending Netanyahu. God forbid, he's an evil ****. But he doesn't have overwhelming public support. I don't know enough about Israeli domestic politics to know why he's been in power so much, but it's certainly not due to universal support. I thought this slide was interesting, other recent polls suggest between 66 to 76% of Israelis want him out of politics.
I wander if that bastion of liberal democracy Iran, sold the same exploding chips to the Russians in their recent delivery.
Despite Flyingox’s claims, based on walking around, that everything is hunky dory
You can misrepresent me all you want, I couldn't care less. Although for clarity what I actually said was that Israeli society was not about to collapse, as you have repeatedly claimed. They're at war with neighbours to the north, south and east; of course things aren't "hunky dory".
My point in posting here is to clarify for those who have given up on the Gaza thread that you are far from the Subject Matter Expert on Israeli society that the tone, content and frequency of your posting suggests you think you are. I'm giving a first hand account of how life in Israel is at the moment, based on being probably the only STWer who is here on any kind of regular, recurring basis: it's carrying on as normal, way more normal than should be expected given the circumstances, society isn't teetering on the edge, and all Israelis aren't the bloodthirsty imperialist Arab-haters that some posters here would have us believe. I've got no agenda in trying to make it appear as something it's not. I have a nice life in Scotland and if Israel really were the ultra-right wing fascist klepto-kakistocracy that some of you claim then there are plenty of easier, safer ways of making a living and I wouldn't have been coming here for the last 5 years.
This is Schrödinger’s Democracy. Israelis get to choose their leader (hooray!!) but they’re not responsible for the leader they choose.
It's proportional representation in Israel, as 10 seconds of googling would tell you. The Israeli public have as much say in who their prime minister is as the British public does.
Israelis get to choose their leader (hooray!!) but they’re not responsible for the leader they choose.
You must realise surely that this is how a lot of (most?) democracies work? For example this year only approx 20% of eligible voters actually voted for Labour and yet we have a Labour government. If you discount those who couldn't be bothered to vote then it's still only approx 33% i.e. not nearly a majority of the population.
You must realise surely that this is how a lot of (most?) democracies work?
Stand by for some more epic mental gymnastics in response
Although for clarity what I actually said was that Israeli society was not about to collapse.
And just for clarity it is the former IDF ombudsman who is claiming that Israel is likely to collapse within a year, not me**. I suspect that he has lived in Israel a lot longer than you and cares far more about it than you with your "nice life in Scotland."
I can also provide plenty of other sources who also claim that Israeli society is collapsing btw, including respected Israeli historian Ilan Pappe.
Btw all this Israel is collapsing debate kicked off when I challenged the claim that Israel has the solution to the Palestinian problem all carefully planned.
Do you want to move the discussion on and discuss how the exploding pagers are part of a carefully thought out Israeli plan? Do you believe that the Israeli government has the slightest clue about what to do next when their plan to defeat Hamas and return the prisoners has so comprehensively failed?
Edit : ** For me that sounds like a serious exaggeration but I am not in a position to challenge it. IMO all the signs are that Israel is slowly collapsing but certainly not at that speed
And just for clarity it is the former IDF ombudsman who is claiming that Israel is likely to collapse within a year, not me*
The problem you've got here is your own words, provided without supporting statements, are there for everyone to see in this thread, just one page back.
Israeli society is falling apart and it looks as if the game’s up for the zionist experiment. Attack Iran and Hezbollah and things will deteriorate rapidly, and this is the gamble…… would the United States allow Israel to collapse with all the consequences of how much it would strengthen those in the region who don’t care about vital US interests, such as Iran?
At this point I think it's just about you getting the last word, purely for the sake of arguing. I'll save you the trouble this time - my guess is this time you would have given us a deep dive into semantics which eventually comes round to you never having said in your own words the exact phrase "Israel society is about to collapse" and so you're right and I'm wrong.
Let me guess – you’re not Arab.
No I’m not, but a lot of the guys I work with are and they live a happy, rewarding life in Israel as productive members of society. What’s your point?
Stand by for some more epic mental gymnastics in response
I’m afraid I can’t compete with the contortions required to claim that Israel’s longest serving PM somehow doesn’t represent public opinion. Simone Biles would be proud!
The problem you’ve got here is your own words, provided without supporting statements
Well thank you for reading my posts so diligently, as I can see you have from the extensive quotes of mine. It is a shame though that you choose to deliberately and falsely claim that I haven't provided any supporting statements that Israeli society is collapsing - I provided a very long and detailed quote from Haatetz which supports the claim in-depth.
I could provide more with quotes from Israeli historian Ilan Pappe and perhaps also Miko Peled, whose grandfather signed Israel's Declaration of Independence and who is ex-iDF Special Forces himself, but that would simply derail the thread further from the issue of exploding pagers.
At this point I think it’s just about you getting the last word, purely for the sake of arguing.
So let's do it different and instead let you have the last word on whether Israel is stable and secure. I tried to move the discussion back onto the topic of this thread which is about exploding pagers. Do you think Israel was responsible for this and how do you think it fits in with their plans concerning Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran?
Do think they even have a plan, or do you believe they are making it up as they go along? Their previous plan to defeat Hamas has clearly failed, what's the next step and how do exploding pagers fit in?