[Closed] Election Campaign

Jamby,

It really doesn't. The IFS report says clearly that they don't know what'll happen. They choose to suggest that it should be seen as punitive for higher earners but that's just an opinion.

What is clear is that a Labour/SNP government would spend before they had seen the impact of their "tax rises"

Well yes, like most governments who decide to spend more.

with the most likely outcome being a massive increase in the deficit as tax revenues fall far short.

Proof? That's just an opinion based on a personal view of the outcome of raising taxes.

I was recently thinking of the similarities between the British Empire, the Roman Empire and the Spanish Empire, when along comes Jim Sillars with this;

[url= http://atrueindependentscotland.com/the-end-of-the-british-empire/ ]End of Empire[/url]

you mean he deliberately ran a clusterfk of a campaign knowing that hed have to rely on Gordon Brown to save his ass

There is no evidence he did save his ass, if anything Gordon Brown's promise of the world to Scotland has led to further problems for Labour. Pretty much all the problems for Labour in Scotland are their own doing.

with the most likely outcome being a massive increase in the deficit as tax revenues fall far short.

Unless investing in the UK produces growth in which case tax revenues rise and you reduce the deficit.

End of Empire

That article is hilarious, if there is a record for the number of exaggerated claims in one paragraph, he's won it.

breatheeasy - Member

Or does promising the world to Scotland get them off the hook a bit, as there won't be an indepence referendum for a while.

What I'm hearing a lot is kind of the opposite, ironically- lots of people who'd not previously have voted SNP in a general election are saying that because independence is off the table for the moment, they're happier to vote for them. Essentially the referendum cleared the way for people who don't want independence, to vote for the rest of the SNP package.

My neighbour's a former Labour councillor and strongly unionist (trade and nation), he's voting SNP because as far as he's concerned they're closer to the party he joined than Labour are. I think poor Ricky Henderson almost shat himself when he heard that. My mum's talking about voting SNP. At this rate, Gordon Brown will)

I know a lot of folks struggle with this but the SNP's other policies have a lot of support from people who don't want independence, especially among Labour supporters. This seemed to confuse people, especially journos, who were surprised that not all SNP voters voted Yes in the referendum; it was no surprise to anyone who'd been paying attention.

Remember, this swing isn't actually new, it's something that we've seen at Holyrood already over the last decade or so, it pre-dates the referendum (and in fact, made the referendum possible). The difference is that now people are voting the same way at westminster, for various reasons.

I think people are looking for simple explanations and the whole "Labour worked with the tories in the referendum" is popular for that reason, it fits the simplistic tribal politics idea. I don't think it's a primary consideration though, mainly because it puts cause after effect and ignores the long term trend

(there's also the fptp state-change thing... There's a lot of seats that the SNP had no chance of winning in before, which naturally suppressed their vote there as people would vote tactically. Once you reach the tipping point where a seat win is possible, things change very fast. My seat's like this, you don't have to go back far to a day when the SNP said "Vote labour here to get Ri****d out", and a good day it was too. I have the great luxury of not having to do that any more)

In short... I think that fundamentally, a lot of people are voting for a party they like and a result they want. With a lot of caveats and considerations but that's at the heart. We're scots, we know how to slash people with an occam's razor 😆

More money into Brand's pocket, well into his tax efficient company structure I am sure. We can watch and make our own minds up about the wisdom of doing the interview.

dragon - Member

There is no evidence he did save his ass,

oh come on the government had misunderstood the mood in scotland at every turn, they lurched from one bad decision to the next even badder one, maybe ninfan was right they seemed so intent on offending the Scots!
without Brown's intervention CallmeDave wouldve been the PM that dissolved the Union

it certainly cost labour plenty in Scotland and I wont argue that theyve been lazy and inneffective for some time up there

Oldbloke I said there wouldn't be a referendum before the end of the next parliament so we are talking 5 years +. I think it is possible could fall over that time,but it could also grow more austerity under the perceived tory govt of whatever colour with SNP locked out.a possible exit from the EU when Scotland may well vote to stay in. Many factors could result in maintained or growing support for indy. Anyway this is a G.E. thread.

@Northwind surely you mean "we know how to chib people with an occcam's razor. 😀

My seat's like this, you don't have to go back far to a day when the SNP said "Vote labour here to get Ri****d out", and a good day it was too.

I take it you're also in Edinburgh South-West then? My Scottish place is in Balerno and politics have always been a bit of a mix here (we had a Tory councillor and a Labour MP most of the time I've had the house there), but it'll certainly be quite a change to get an SNP MP which is looking quite likely. Certainly Alistair Darling seemed to think it was likely!

without Brown's intervention CallmeDave wouldve been the PM that dissolved the Union

Not convinced myself. Ok there was one poll that showed a possible yes vote (with a small majority) but that was an outlier and at no point in the campaign did I think a yes vote was likely. If anything it got a lot closer once the No campaign started, but I'm not convinced those panic driven late on promises my Brown and co. were necessary or helpful (other than to the SNP in the long run).

Yes, I think there have been studies showing the last-minute vows didn't change the result.

Fundamentally, lots of people thought they'd give Westminster one last chance, and believed the stuff about Scotland being wanted in the Union. Now they're feeling like they've been had.

wanmankylung - Member
Latest polls are showing that the SNP will win every seat in Scotland. Wouldnt that be good.

Brilliant - no excuses then and time to audit the rhetoric versus the practice

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b34f5ab0-ea76-11e4-a701-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YheN3r6F

as the FT notes, time for a proper audit and scrutiny of the SNP.

NW - CMD's tax announcement is first and foremost a political trap. Its the reverse of the 50p stunt that Labour pulled.

If its not a trap and its to be taken at face value then the idea that there is little to chose between the two parties that matter is not true.

There is much greater clarity on priorities - the Tories will prioritise lower taxes, Labour the reverse. Much better now as you can make you own choice with greater clarity - unless they are talking porkies.

Perhaps CMD is also slipping the joker to Nick. Ok, when crunch comes we will trade off the tax cuts with you. You look smart (remember thresholds) and we get things done. we can then blame you for the broken promise - or is that too cynical?

15 mins of my life I can't get back. Brand doesn't understand an interview is where you ask the other guy questions rather than telling him what you think. Certainly no damage done to Miliband as he just agreed with 75% of what Brand said and it was pretty easy to push back on Brand's nonsense about politics having delivered nothing since the right to vote for women - err the NHS Russell ?

Behind all the political BS and the misnamed austerity period - our budget deficit is twice that of the rest of Europe and on top of that our current account deficit is widening.

Whoever is next will have double deficits to deal with? Good job the fluffy parties have the policies to deal with this!

Unless investing in the UK produces growth in which case tax revenues rise and you reduce the deficit

epicsteve - Member

Not convinced myself.

the No votes lead in the polls dropped from a steady 15% to +/-2% by the eve of the election and Brown's speech

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

or is that too cynical?

It's politics. You can't be cynical enough.

Indeed as I mentioned to one (increasingly agitated CEO today) the whole thing is intriguing in its awfulness.

As with the independence referendum, the whole debate has been created to avoid the central issues. Then we have the juxtapositioning of parties in relation to individual policies with each trying to take each other central ground.

Its not just Eton mess, its a comprehensive mess too (in both senses!)

the No votes lead in the polls dropped from a steady 15% to +/-2% by the eve of the election and Browns speech

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

The polls aren't always right and I was convinced they were overstating the likelyhood of a Yes vote. I was predicting 40% yes until the No campaign started, then 45% yes after that - which was more accurate than the polling!

There were very, very few polls that predicted a Yes vote though. Enough to panic Brown and co. obviously, but I still don't think the last minute promises (made after many/most postal votes were sent in fact) saved the day for the No campaign. In fact I suspect they did very little other than increase support for the SNP post-referendum.

Quite possibly what we're seeing in Scotland isn't really support for the SNP having increased hugely - just that the tendency for SNP voters to switch to Labour for Westminster elections looks like it has almost completely gone (plus a bit of a further swing away from Labour due to a extremely ineffective campaign and awful leadership).

gordimhor - Member

@Northwind surely you mean "we know how to chib people with an occcam's razor.

You can't chib someone with a razor! Amateur. Might as well try and open their face with your sharpened knitting needle.

Maybe my recollection is wrong but the thing that's really got me this time is the consistent ignoring of questions and then simply repeating a prepared statement on the government's performance on X or the party's policy on Y - absolutely no attempt to even engage with interviewers' questions or to actually debate. It's no wonder that smaller parties are becoming more popular.

FWIW, as stated above, the 'No' vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland's voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for but can now vote for the SNP safe in the knowledge that it won't lead to independence.

Rules please,a chib for slashing and a knitting needle for slipping between the ribs.And it can be an open razor,I grew up thinking the scar on my Dad's face was from a car crash.

the 'No' vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland's voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for

I've read the SNP manifesto and [s]to the uncritical reader living under the SNP might sound like Utopia.[/s]I did not like it

Why not just say that and explain why ?

#stillundecidedjam
Everyday someone new tells you hat you dont make sense and yet on you go unaffected.

Is there any point reading manifestos? It's not like any party will get the majority it needs to carry out the things in its manifesto, and parties change their minds all the time. To an uncritical reader, all manifestos probably sound marvelous.

So the question is, who do you like and trust the most?

To an uncritical reader, all manifestos probably sound marvelous

Try reading the green one. To the "uncritical" reader is sounds like a horror story.

[url= http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/318815-stvipsos-mori-poll-snp-set-to-win-all-scots-seats-at-general-election/ ]All Your Base Are Belong To Us[/url]

Its actually getting a bit silly now.

So in England there is the "Shy Tory" phenomenon - the Tory's support is always understated as some people are embarrassed to admit they will vote Tory.

I think there has to be a similar thing happening in Scotland with Labour voters. There will be a few people currently being swept along by the SNP tsunami who in the quiet of the voting booth, pen in quivering hand, will stick the X in the Labour box as they have always done.

Despite there not being a single projection that has the SNP on less then 50 seats I think come May the 8th it will be more like 45.

Jim Murphy will claim this as a victory and again stand astride Scottish politics like the true colossus he is.

Maybe my recollection is wrong but the thing that's really got me this time is the consistent ignoring of questions and then simply repeating a prepared statement on the government's performance on X or the party's policy on Y

Been like that for a long time. Partly the fault of the media as they spin any minor deviance (or exclusive) out of all proportion, so the end results is that politicians will only ever make 'on message' statements. Does mean I rarely bother to watch any interviews (not having a TV helps make this quite easy).

FWIW, as stated above, the 'No' vote on independence makes the SNP much more attractive for many of scotland's voters who would like a proper left wing Labour party to vote for but can now vote for the SNP safe in the knowledge that it won't lead to independence.

Do you think so? I'd expect that if they win nearly all the Scottish seats they'll take that as a mandate to push for a re-match.

Serious q - have you made up your minds as to who you're voting for? I'm struggling!

Do you think so? I'd expect that if they win nearly all the Scottish seats they'll take that as a mandate to push for a re-match.

If they did win all the seats in Scotland (which I think is unlikely!) then I suspect it probably is a pretty clear mandate for a re-match!

The way that'd work is that they'd then include it in their manifesto for the next Scottish Parliament elections (which they're currently saying is unlikely) so people would get a chance to vote with that in mind anyway.

[s]Partly[/s] the fault of the media as they spin any minor deviance (or exclusive) out of all proportion, so the end results is that politicians will only ever make 'on message' statements.

+1, happens with everything, the media moan there are no personalities in politics or sport etc. but then hammer them for anything they say they don't like. In the age of Twitter etc. it's just going to get worse.

This election must have the least amount of policies announced by parties ever. As the UK sinks ever deeper into the mire, all they do is fiddle around the fringes.

For instance anyone want to try and explain the energy or agriculture policy for any of the main parties?

The guardian's seat projection for scotland is now 57 SNP, 1 Tory, 0 anything else. That's just weird.

The bit I like though is the Movable Tory. Got wiped out in Galloway and moved to Tweedale. Now Mundell's forecast to lose Tweedale to the SNP but Selkirk to go blue in the face of lib dem annihilation.

It's whack-a-tory, hit one on the head and another one pops up.

I think the Salmon Who Would be King is most definitely thinking an SNP landslide is an endorsement of a new refernedum

Im wondering if Red Ed really is as red as he was initially painted if the SNP/ Lab coalition might not synchronise quite well with a very left wing agenda....

So in England there is the "Shy Tory" phenomenon - the Tory's support is always understated as some people are embarrassed to admit they will vote Tory.

😆

Strange, but almost undeniably true. They're a safe(ish) bet. Conservative by name...

The guardian's seat projection for scotland is now 57 SNP, 1 Tory, 0 anything else. That's just weird.

Won't happen though as I think they're just averaging the swing to SNP across all the seats. I'll be amazed if Labour don't get at least 10 but am really hoping that Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy both lose their seats.

I think the Salmon Who Would be King is most definitely thinking an SNP landslide is an endorsement of a new refernedum

In his position would you think any different?

Im wondering if Red Ed really is as red as he was initially painted if the SNP/ Lab coalition might not synchronise quite well with a very left wing agenda....

There has been some SNP support from the unions as they seem to like them being left of Labour.

ill bet the Sun absolutely lays into millibrand tomorrow as they discussed curbing murdoch's influence

Apparently they're using constituency polling as well as national. But the speed of change on these is too high to put much confidence in them imo, fast flows can fast ebb. OTOH there's huge momentum there, and as I mentioned earlier assorted FPTP Bullshit.

SNP so far behind in the Dumfriesshire constituency its hard to see them winning it - possible of course, LibDems defect to Tories to keep the SNP out ? IMO classic example of using polling across Scotland to predict result is a single constituency with quite a different demographic.

So what exactly is the SNO LW agenda - no not we will end austerity (they won't) or we are fiscally responsible (they are not), save the NHS (they haven't)

Ok so they were prepared to renage on their debt. But at the same time, slash corporation tax and have ultra RW notion of no lender of last resort.

So spending in NHS has been poor ditto, education.
They centralise power over schools and education too

There plans are broadly the same as labour on the deficit, so apart from not being English where are the credentials that will push labour more to the left?

At least the manifesto wasn't 600+ pages of fluff this time. The greens must have been horrified at that waste if paper and expense.

dont forget the nukes thm

Who will be first with their own version of

"We're alright, we're alright, we're alright"

This time?

Serious q - have you made up your minds as to who you're voting for? I'm struggling!

Yes - I'm postal voting (I've decided to vote in Scotland rather than England) so need to do that now. It's quite possible that I might be voting for a candidate who's actually elected, which would be a new experience for me!

Serious q - have you made up your minds as to who you're voting for? I'm struggling!

Anyway to answer your question Yes and I would wager most on this thread would say the same.

LibDems defect to Tories to keep the SNP out ?

Wouldn't be a big change for them as they effectively voted Tory last time.

True kimbers I meant to say nukes aside - leaving aside also don't ask, don't tell, but at least they won't have to pay for them, only pretend they are not there!

Vote for whoever handles your local issues best

The national and foreign policy ones are set largely in stone despite the pretence. Beyond that play the tax trade off game - at least that is simple.

Anyway to answer your question Yes and I would wager most on this thread would say the same.

The polls don't be changing much (barring Labour slipping further back in Scotland) so unless something drastic happens I suspect most people have already made up their minds.

Why not just say that and explain why ?

Unfortunately that's also the conclusion I've come to on the other manifestos. Which doesn't really help other than to turn me from considering any national issues to looking simply at local ones - has the current MP justified re-election or not for their constituency work?

Is there any point reading manifestos

The polling may be accurate but it also might not, polling relies on models, to create accurate models you need past results but we have never had an election like this so we have no real idea of what might happen.

All those saying SNP will have some influence over Labour are not looking at the big picture. Labour can just put their queens speech down and dare the SNP to vote it down. The worst that would happen is the SNP bring down another Labour Government just like they did in 79 but instead of ushering in Thatcher, it will allow Labour to regain its Scottish seats and go for a majority government.

OK. Because I'm an accountant and I'm highly critical of anything which doesn't include a set of numbers which allow me to see how it is all supposed to work. There may be assurances it does, but I don't want that. I want the actual numbers and projections. I get that from colleagues asking me if we can spend £X on their latest idea so I certainly expect it from someone seeking a mandate to run / influence government.

This is also why they tend to be so keen on those vote for policies sites, as there a load of policies on spending commitments, which everyone loves, but far fewer on how you raise the money to fund them.

The guardian's seat projection for scotland is now 57 SNP, 1 Tory, 0 anything else. That's just weird.

If you look at the way they've modeled the data they are assuming that the Labour and Lib Dem votes collapse to SNP, but that the Tory vote essentially remains static from 2010, give or take a few %.

The worst that would happen is the SNP bring down another Labour Government just like they did in 79

Yup, that happened. And why did the SNP have no confidence in the Labour government? Because they reneged on the devolution referendum. Labour brought it on themselves, the Callaghan government was collapsing anyway, and then the electorate voted in Thatcher by a massive majority.

Interesting replies chaps, thanks.

I've not voted (by choice) in the last couple of elections but can not remember there being such a critical time for the electorate.

Tried reading the Green's Manifesto, some good, some shockingly bad. Attempting to read others, it's a slow process.

jambalaya - Member

LibDems defect to Tories to keep the SNP out ?

Nah, Tories were fairly close second in Selkirk with the SNP and Labour about 25 points adrift last time so it doesn't need defections to make it the new panda enclosure, it just needs a Lib Dem collapse. OTOH Electoral Calculus has it as an SNP gain but very marginal. Michael Moore's already clearing his desk though, just a question of who takes it now.

Like I mentioned, the Guardian forecast does incorporate local polling. Though to what extent or weighting I don't know. I don't believe this SNPwash will come true but then, all the way along we've been saying the same thing, "they'll get 10 less seats then projection X", then the next poll says they'll get even more and we say "Ah well they'll get 10 less than that".

The FPTP effect will be strong in a lot of these seats- where the SNP were polling 10% or thereabouts and the Tories were in play, tactical voting was the obvious outcome. So the previous election outcomes are going to be misleading in a lot of cases. Anti-Tory sentiment always drove people back and forth between the other parties but I don't think anti-SNP sentiment is strong enough to do the same

dragon - Member

If you look at the way they've modeled the data they are assuming that the Labour and Lib Dem votes collapse to SNP, but that the Tory vote essentially remains static from 2010, give or take a few %.

Not assuming I don't think, evidence based. Whether they're modelling rightly or not is a fair question but it's not just pulled out of the air.

Tried reading the Green's Manifesto, some good, some shockingly bad. Attempting to read others, it's a slow process.

I read the Green's and it made for some interesting thinking.

On the whole I agree with what they say and genuinely take my hat off to some of the statements they make - genuinely forward thinking or genuinely scary, depending how you view things.

However there's a few areas I can't agree with, such as the disbanding of the armed forces. I understand the reasoning, but I also believe the forces to be very much part of British life and culture, before the more practical sides of being a relatively undefended nation.

What I do like and respect is the party's balls to put these views out there in a serious manner in the first place. I do hope the Tories and Labour are watching and taking notes.

It is interesting that the poll companies are so opaque on their analysis makes it hard to trust them and are the all unbiased?

You could argue it is in the major parties favour to say the SNP are going to win Scotland by a lot, as it will ensure that the anti SNP vote turns out on the day and the SNP vote think it's a done deal.

You could argue it is in the major parties favour to say the SNP are going to win Scotland by a lot, as it will ensure that the anti SNP vote turns out on the day and the SNP vote think it's a done deal.

That's an obvious argument for Labour and the LibDems given they've currently got lots of seats in Scotland. Less so for the Tories though - in their case I'm sure they've just been banging on about the SNP to try and get Labour to rule out any kind of deal with them, given their biggest threat is probably a Labour/SNP coalition.

It is interesting that the poll companies are so opaque on their analysis makes it hard to trust them and are the all unbiased?

I'm not convinced it's an issue of bias - just whether a sample of 1000 people can really give you an accurate forecast given the complexity of the issues, including local factors.

[i]More money into Brand's pocket, well into his tax efficient company structure I am sure. We can watch and make our own minds up about the wisdom of doing the interview.[/i]

I'd rather stick needles in my eyes! 😡

I read the Green's and it made for some interesting thinking.

On the whole I agree with what they say and genuinely take my hat off to some of the statements they make - genuinely forward thinking or genuinely scary, depending how you view things.

However there's a few areas I can't agree with, such as the disbanding of the armed forces. I understand the reasoning, but I also believe the forces to be very much part of British life and culture, before the more practical sides of being a relatively undefended nation.

What I do like and respect is the party's balls to put these views out there in a serious manner in the first place. I do hope the Tories and Labour are watching and taking notes.

Yes, you're absolutely right but the arrogance of the usual suspects means they won't give a stuff and won't feel threatened. Understand completely your point about the Armed Forces though and would imagine that many voters would feel unhappy with this.

I read the Green's and it made for some interesting thinking.

However there's a few areas I can't agree with, such as the disbanding of the armed forces

As far as I can tell they don't advocate disbanding the armed forces.

[b]Security and defence
[/b]

The UK’s recent history has been scarred by involvement in ill-advised military interventions that have undermined our national
and international security. The Green Party opposed these interventions, which have brought havoc to Iraq and Libya and only
fragile gains in Afghanistan, as well as driving an increased terrorist threat closer to home – all at the cost of many precious lives
and vast amounts of money and other resources that could have been better used for other needs.
We will restructure and update the UK’s security and defence establishments and services so that they contribute to the
international good. We will:
• Pursue a policy of ‘defensive defence’, which threatens no one yet makes it clear that threats and attacks will be resisted.
• Take a leading role in preventing violent conflict, genocide and war crimes overseas through (i) helping to develop local
capacities to avoid, manage and resolve conflicts; and (ii) enhancing the UK’s well-respected role in genuine peacekeeping
and the protection of non-combatant communities.
• Develop policies and programmes for ‘environmental defence’ and disaster mitigation and relief, drawing on the skills and
activities of our current military forces and increasing gender representation and training to equip the UK to contribute more
effectively in these kinds of human security emergencies.
• Diminish dependence on arms sales through a halt to government subsidies and introducing a strict licensing regime to
prevent sales of weapons and military equipment to undemocratic regimes and those that violate human rights (including, at
the present time, Israel and Saudi Arabia).
• Look after veterans and their families.

GREENPARTY.ORG.UK "https://www.greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/manifesto/Green_Party_2015_General_Election_Manifesto_Searchable.pdf"

Page 70

Rockape63 - Member

I'd rather stick needles in my eyes!

Dont be such a stickinthemud ,the interviews not that bad at all, it is quite Brand but just as valid as Cameron sitting on Loraine kellys couch, and answering a load of pre-prepared questions, infact more valid- Brand has 10million twitter followers I dont think Loraine gets those figures!

Well, 10 million followers is not the same as 10 million people listening to what he says and I'm sure a very small proportion of those 10 million actually watch his Trews (yeah, I follow him). That said, it's a valid point. I would argue so long as Ed hasn't ended up looking stupid (and having only read comments about it, that doesn't seem to be the case) then at worst he'll have made no difference to his success and at best, he'll have persuaded a few of RB's followed to vote for him.

he'll have persuaded a few of RB's followed to vote for him

Will any of those be old enough to vote?

Will any of those be old enough to vote?

Let alone registered, if they took RB's advice

Will any of those be old enough to vote?

how predictably patronising of the global capitalist elite

I'll have you know I'm one of the few here that's going to be voting for a socialist party. Doesn't stop me thinking Brand is a dick though!

All those saying SNP will have some influence over Labour are not looking at the big picture. Labour can just put their queens speech down and dare the SNP to vote it down.

It's amazing how often this statement of supposed fact goes unchallenged.

The SNP can and probably will support a Labour Queen's speech, after that they can and will choose what motions to support in the commons.

Each new bill passed needs a majority to support it. The SNP can pick and choose what individual bills they support. Its up to Labour to either amend bills to make them amenable to the SNP or go the other way and make bills amenable to the Tories.

That's how a minority government works.

The only support the SNP has to give is to the original confidence motion (The Queen's speech) or any future confidence votes. Everything else they can vote for or against as they please.

Labour might well need active SNP support to form a government anyway, as it's not clear if they're going to get more seats than the Tories (some polls say yes, some say no).

I don't think anyone who had been thinking of voting Labour would have been discouraged by the Brand "interview" and a few waverers may have been pursueded. So all in all you can say it was right for Milliband to do it. Just odd they didn't announce it, all rather clandestine as though they where a bit embarrassed.

Interesting to hear views that local issues weigh heavily on people here. For the GE I am totally national in focus. Local views I express via council elections. Yes the local MP does get involved in local issues but primarily as a conduit to bringing them to central government's attention.

nteresting to hear views that local issues weigh heavily on people here. For the GE I am totally national in focus. Local views I express via council elections.

Same here, especially as my MP was parachuted in due to it being a safe seat so has rarely shown any interest in local issues.

Labour might well need active SNP support to form a government anyway, as it's not clear if they're going to get more seats than the Tories (some polls say yes, some say no).

My gut feel is most likely outcome is the Tories are the largest party but smaller than Labour plus SNP. Outlier outcome is another 5yr Tory/Lib Dem coalition

Just a post to intersect your inevitable next post 😉

Labour wouldn't need [i]a deal[/i] with the SNP. Minority Government would work for them as long as they know the SNP won't vote against them in a Confidence motion.

Meanwhile the SNP can propose, say, an end to the nuclear deterrent and when the majority of Labour MPs and all the Tory MPs vote against them they can bank that as proof that Labour aren't in tune with the Scottish Electorate.

Labour wouldn't need a deal with the SNP. Minority Government would work for them as long as they know the SNP won't vote against them in a Confidence motion.

Not if the Tories have more MP's than Labour does, which some polls are suggesting is likely.

@scot - @epic's post ^^ is my understanding, but I could be wrong 😳

[quote=epicsteve ]

Labour wouldn't need a deal with the SNP. Minority Government would work for them as long as they know the SNP won't vote against them in a Confidence motion.

The question is quite simple - which party can get their policies implemented and survive a vote of No Confidence? That one will form the government.