Early General elect...
 

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[Closed] Early General election?

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I see it's in a couple of tomorrow's papers. Torygraph etc.

Under the fixed term parliament act, how could the Tories do this? Other than changing the law?

Or... are the papers simply alluding to the fact the Tories will call an election asap within the existing legislation?

Tories have 12 point leads in the polls after the budget apparently as majority asked think it was "fair."


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 12:44 am
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Johnson has an 80 seat majority

Like fk is he going to risk that, to gain an extra few months to this parliament


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 12:52 am
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You are right of course but I'm just wondering what the term "early" really means, in this context? What is the window allowed by the fixed term act?


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 12:59 am
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Arent they planning to replace it anyway?


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 1:00 am
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Given all that looks likely to happen between now and 2024, following Brexit and the pandemic austerity, it could well be that the highlight for Boris could be claiming "he got vaccination done" for the population aged ~30+ by late summer.

Might well be the best chance they have of extending their time in government since 2010. I guess the timing will come down to when Boris' two years as PM, activating his life long super PM pension, kicks in.

Here's hoping this election is called and the result is even worse than May's 2017 GE, where she lost her 17 seat majority.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 7:20 am
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Under the fixed term parliament act, how could the Tories do this?

The fixed term act is pretty pointless.
So long as you get a majority of the votes you can either a)revoke/amend the act or b)pass a one off act to authorise a GE.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 7:51 am
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Under the fixed term parliament act, how could the Tories do this? Other than changing the law?

The same way they did to call the December 2019 General Election?


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 10:32 am
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a 12pt lead!! despite everything, i despair.

they could probably stand on a platform of 'no more elections if you vote for us' and probably get a landslide.

this country is ****ed up.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 10:40 am
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As vaccine rollout leads to opening up, Tory lead will probably go higher too 🙄


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 10:43 am
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So if they call an election, would we be better off if they win or lose ?


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 10:46 am
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a 12pt lead!! despite everything, i despair.

You'd think Labour would somehow be able to capitalise on 124,000 deaths, wost economic recession in the 1st world, rampant PPE corruption, etc. But, sadly, they have an uncanny ability to loose elections no matter what. I did think Starmer might be able to change that.....


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:02 am
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A couple of weeks ago everyone blasted the US when they passed the 500k COVID death milestone.
At the same time, scaled up if our population was the same as the U,S we would have been on 641k deaths.

Despite that absolute horror of a statistic, they still hold a 12 point lead?

I completely despair.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:09 am
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This was mooted by Polly Toynbee I think in the Guardian a few weeks back. Vaccine bounce, Keir yet to really find his stride, the possible difficulties of Brexit still showing in 2024. Also BJ wants to stay PM (I think) and that is less certain if the polls are faltering in 2023.

So there is reasoning behind this thinking


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:16 am
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Despite that absolute horror of a statistic, they still hold a 12 point lead?

Because in the UK more people want a Tory government than any other. In their minds the death toll would have been the same (or even worse) under Labour which could actually have been true!


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:32 am
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It's hardly a shattering display of confidence if you think this is as positive as it gets for the next four to five years. Quick! Let's get an extra year before the real shitshow starts!


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:33 am
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Because in the UK more people want a Tory government than any other.

This. And, to be blunt, I don't think that's going to change in the next 5 years so no real need to rush to the polls.

I could see an argument for Boris seeking a revised/renewed Union mandate if Scotland and/or Wales return a pro-Indy government in May though.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:41 am
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I don't see how a General Election result in favour of Boris offers any kind of pro-union mandate, it's not like the English have the option to vote for parties which support independence. The SNP would welcome him badging the election as an indy vote by seeking a mandate in this way.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:47 am
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The Tories will seek a fresh mandate in 2022, if they hang on any longer the post brexit/covid fully funded bubble will burst and that makes an election a tough win.

If they win in 2022 which is almost guaranteed they can revert to type bang in Austerity/balance the books (oh the irony)in 2023 and hang onto power until 2027. They may stand a chance of winning that election (by the skin of their teeth) and that takes them to 2032 - they need 10+ years for the deregulation master plan - meanwhile the SNP cant get a vote until they get the Tories out.

I now think it will be the 2030s before we see a Labour gov.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:51 am
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Because in the UK more people want a Tory government than any other.

They actually don't, they just think they do.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 12:23 pm
 dazh
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Because in the UK more people want a Tory government than any other.

28% of eligible voters voted tory in 2019.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 1:14 pm
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Because Labour tend to try and address real issues and the Tories are now firmly in the we'll tell you what you want to hear camp. I used to think people would wake up to the fact that what they wanted to hear didn't match reality, but unfortunately Brexit and Covid have properly burst that bubble.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 1:26 pm
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28% of eligible voters voted tory in 2019.

Which is more than for any other party, therefore "more people want a Tory government than any other"

They actually don’t, they just think they do.

Of course they do.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:31 pm
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So much want to post, but weeksy will tell me off 😉


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:35 pm
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do they want to use it to shift the parliamentary party to the right, move some more of the "old guard" into the lords and replace with more right wing erg types.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:35 pm
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Stalin said the death of one man is a tragedy the death of a million is a statistic

Covid deaths in the UK are now a statistic - which is possibility the most disturbing thing to come from Covid.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:42 pm
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80 seat majority - very unlikely. More likely is Johnson will stand aside when the country has re-opened - claim victory over the virus and on Brexit and depart in a blaze of glory (in his head anyway)


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:46 pm
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Be curious timing for a GE as they have just picked a massive fight with the health unions over pay and pensions after NHS staff have saved Boris and Hancock’s skins with the vaccine rollout. This one is going to be very messy.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:50 pm
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Which is more than for any other party, therefore “more people want a Tory government than any other”

A lot more people didn’t want a Tory government than did, it’s just those that didn’t can’t agree on what they do want, or can’t all vote for the same ‘other’ party.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:53 pm
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Despite that absolute horror of a statistic, they still hold a 12 point lead?

In the last couple of weeks Starmer's been going backwards. Unfortunately the government is being surprisingly efficient in its vaccination programs; and he's a bit unexciting, so he's not had much to work with.
What's particularly galling is the cronyism and corrupt awarding of contracts just isn't sticking - the media seem happy to give the Tories a pass on that "because covid".

Serious question: Starmer is clearly the best Labour have right now, and he has done a great job so far in making Labour more electable than they were. But what if he's just not good enough? He's not at all inspiring, and (as Bojo, Blair and May (as the counter example) all illustrate) it's being able to inspire that gets you elected, not boring common sense.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 2:53 pm
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tomhoward
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A lot more people didn’t want a Tory government than did, it’s just those that didn’t can’t agree on what they do want, or can’t all vote for the same ‘other’ party.

...and that'd be fine too except that the UK electoral system is designed to treat the best scoring loser like they won a crushing victory.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 3:02 pm
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He’s not at all inspiring

Brilliant bit of understatement there.

Still think an early election isn’t likely. They have the next election sewn up, whenever it is, so delaying the following one for as long as possible makes sense. ‘24 & ‘29. The budget perhaps does point to a May ‘23 election… but I think there’s some bluffing going on there.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 3:05 pm
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You’d think Labour would somehow be able to capitalise on 124,000 deaths, wost economic recession in the 1st world, rampant PPE corruption, etc. But, sadly, they have an uncanny ability to loose elections no matter what. I did think Starmer might be able to change that….

They have totally missed the chance. If there is an early election, much as I hate to say it we need a Lib/Lab pact to unite the anti-Tory vote, and make a big play on NHS/public sector pay.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 3:14 pm
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You’d think Labour would somehow be able to capitalise on 124,000 deaths, wost economic recession in the 1st world, rampant PPE corruption, etc. But, sadly, they have an uncanny ability to loose elections no matter what. I did think Starmer might be able to change that…..

I sometimes wonder if Labour even want the gig now,it's as if they are waiting for the Tories to screw things up even more,then hope that people will beg* them to take over the repair job.

*not really


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 3:27 pm
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They actually don’t, they just think they do.

They're stupid enough to listen to the populist press. We even have a few on here that are either selfish enough or stupid enough to swallow the right wing shit.

I have given up with idiots. I'm not going to change something that someone has read in the mail, the sun or the telegraph.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 8:08 pm
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I have to say that promising a big NHS payrise would be a big vote winner currently, with all the NHS love going around.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 8:21 pm
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Because in [s]the UK[/s] England more people want a Tory government than any other. In their minds the death toll would have been the same (or even worse) under Labour which could actually have been true!


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 8:24 pm
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I sometimes wonder if Labour even want the gig now,it’s as if they are waiting for the Tories to screw things up even more,then hope that people will beg* them to take over the repair job.

I often joke that they've never forgiven Tony Blair for winning three elections.....


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 8:41 pm
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80 seat majority – very unlikely.

This. Though they will also have one eye on how solid the Red Wall is remaining. I can't see anything happening soon though.


 
Posted : 05/03/2021 11:18 pm
 poly
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I have to say that promising a big NHS payrise would be a big vote winner currently, with all the NHS love going around.

No matter how big a rise the NHS hero’s / unions will present it as miserly- probably saying things like a 10% rise sounds like a lot but years of real terms cuts after tax the average nurse will only take home 70p more per hour. That’s all the government think your nhs staff are worth 70p.

Meanwhile all the people who have lost jobs, been furloughed on substantially less money or work in nonNHS gov dept and get nothing, are saying hang on a minute what about us, and the private sector employees who kept the country running by delivering your food, stacking the shelves, building ventilators, etc are thinking hold on a second where’s all this money coming from, we seem to be propping up government employees who did great stuff but never faced financial ruin AND the private sector people. I’ve heard quite a few people who are exhausted in relatively low paid jobs recently questioning if they’d have been better off being furloughed rather than exhausted and skint!


 
Posted : 06/03/2021 12:26 am
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You’d think Labour would somehow be able to capitalise on 124,000 deaths, wost economic recession in the 1st world, rampant PPE corruption, etc

Starmir has had it handed on a plate and has failed to do anything with it. Westminster have broke the SNP, Boris will do a U-turn on NHS payrise paid from the magic Sunak money tree and coupled with leading the world in vacinations will be in power for decades to come.


 
Posted : 06/03/2021 1:13 am
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We even have a few on here that are either selfish enough or stupid enough to swallow the right wing shit.

Stupidity maybe a reason but sadly selfishness and privilege is probably a bigger factor. The tory party fit well with selfish people with an attitude of "why should I give money to those poorer people they should have tried harder in life"
Poorer people voting tory has always been a mystery to me but some part of the tory compassionless approach must appeal to them


 
Posted : 06/03/2021 7:51 am
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Poorer people voting tory has always been a mystery to me but some part of the tory compassionless approach must appeal to them

My father voted Tory his entire life - his justification for this was that he'd seen some picket line intimidation towards a disabled strike breaker in the 50's therefore Labour were bad. Liberal party wasnt even considered as an option.
Later in life when I'd been a member of a very good union for a number of years I tried to explain they are not all like the stereotypes you see on the news but he wouldn't have it.
He always lived in a council flat/house and even refused the right to buy because it would have involved borrowing money which he didn't believe in so he didn't even fit in with the Tory mentality.
I always struggled to understand his attitude/view but it wasnt even up for discussion.
Is it because people feel part of the "club" and therefore feel better about themselves and their status?

And early election....no not with that majority but I can see a change of leader once things have settled down and before they seriously start looking at contract awards etc.
Take the applause for covid/Brexit then offload Boris and hang all the bad news on him.


 
Posted : 06/03/2021 8:22 am

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