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The range angst:
1/ how low can you run the battery? That depends on charge infrastructure and how reliable it is. In Germany I'm happy to run down to 10-15% but in France it's more like 20% because there are fewer chargers, further between and I never rely on just one being useable.
2/ how fast to you want to drive? With 20kWh chargers going faster than the trucks, 93kmh, is pointless because less time on the road will mean more time on the charger. Even with 5kWh chargers we only drive at 110kmh.
3/ the types of roads. Main roads are limited to 80kmh in France, we need a break before the battery needs charging. We've only been using the Zoé to go up and down to the ski resort since December (heater on eco)) and the dispmay says 12.0 kW/100km with a predicted range of about 380km. But the average speed isn't even 50kmh because of road and traffic conditions. However returning from the coast on the autoroute which is about 120km at the 130 limit empties the battery, on main roads we do the return trip on 2/3 battery.
4/ Britain often has the worst weather conditions for an EV: cold, wet and humid which means extra tyre drag, the heater/demister flat out (it's shit), headlights, wipers... in SW France those conditions are rare. Users on this forum get much less range in Winter than we do.
So how long is your piece of string? How do you drive? Are you prepared to drive slower and take more breaks? The longest trip we've done is Pau-Berlin which is about 2000km. The French leg was slow, the German part not much dofferent to when we've used an ICE car. We're never in a hurry.
In conclusion we plan long trips with less than 280km between charges and drive as necessary to get that.
ICE vehicles will become the equivalent of horses for transport - a niche leisure activity for rich folk.
A BMW 3 series has 30,000 parts a Tesla only 7,000.
Maintenance on an EV is tyres and brakes no oil, radiator, starters etc.
They are faster
Range is a non issue
They have more space inside as they don't need the engine block
They are cheaper to run
The economics are all in favour even with out the environmental advantages.
And battery tech and power generation is only going to get better.
I'm intending to cling on to my current petrol and diesel cars as long as I can.
Because as thewanderer says, the alternatives including electric, will only get better and better.
Some electric options at the moment feel a bit half baked.
Some electric options at the moment feel a bit half baked.
What's that in?
What’s that in?
Tesla.
Maintenance on an EV is tyres and brakes no oil, radiator, starters etc.
Only if you're an idiot.
I presume you've never had the pleasure of an electric motor bearing failure. Even with full alignment in good conditions they still fail and that's before you start introducing dynamic loads and salt water ingress. It's a very simple regime but they do need maintained.
how often are you going to pay 3 or 4 times more to fill up. And if your smart the differential will be more than 3-4 times.
In conclusion we plan long trips with less than 280km between charges and drive as necessary to get that.
So taking, say 30%, off for winter thats 187km which is 116 miles. Most trips that's fine but if we wanted to visit my wifes family that's really pushing it (47 - 54 miles each way to Cuumbernauld, 59-66 to Stirling). Now that's not a problem as such since we're talking about stuff in a future where infrastructure has improved. Even right now I can get a recharge at Comrie if I went there.
But when it comes to the grid it's more about when you need the power rather than if you need it. You're still relying on having enough resource available to feed a grid hiccup right now. Unless every public and workplace parking space has a charge point (that you want to charge folk handsomely to use) that's not going to happen and from around 0800 - 1900 your resource isn't going to be fully guaranteed because a lot of the the cars will be away from the home. Even if they were I'm sure everyone is going to be thrilled if they come out to find less charge than they they had when they left it or just not plug it in out of abandonment anxiety, you know thats going to be a thing regardless of facts). There are [url= https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54841528 ]better things[/url] out there for grid support and outsourcing it to the consumer is just asking for trouble IMO. There is a reason operators are paid well for maintaining grid backup systems. Not when they are used, just so they are there on demand. If you can't meet that demand then the grid is in trouble.
Why not have that hydrogen production? We're probably going to need it anyway as feedstock since plastics and other petrochemical products aren't going anywhere soon so why not have an amount on standby for contingencies like this? I just don't see the sense in writing off an entire process because of a very narrow application and not looking at the bigger picture. Forget about transporting it and other whataboutery, it's already possible to pipe it and anyway it makes sense to produce it where it's needed so won't need to go far before it gets converted anyway. Ineos aren't building a power plant in Dundee, they're building it in Grangemouth where the fuel is and so it would be the same for electrolysis, you would build it next to the synthesiser. If you can run a turbine off that why not?
Only if you’re an idiot.
Maintenance not breakages.
Maintenance not breakages.
And if you don't maintain motors you're an idiot. They need inspected and overhauled just like any other moving part, just because they don't have reciprocating parts and fluids to change doesn't mean they are maintenance free.
EDIT: Belief that motor don't need maintenance is up there with lifetime gearbox oil in marketing bullshit that makes engineers cry (but mechanics a lot of money).
How much weight would be required for a petrol range extender, to kick in occasionally.
I’m thinking bmw i3 type of thing.
Obviously you’re not wanting a v6 in there, but a small petrol generator type thing that could be slotted in when you think you’re going to need it.
It would kick in only when required and always run at set revs/full efficiency.
That does away with a lot of anxiety.
I’m also thinking that cars need to get a lot smaller, or more specifically, lighter.
And if you don’t maintain motors you’re an idiot
Their point was there’s less maintenance not that you don’t need to bother.
Their point was there’s less maintenance not that you don’t need to bother.
Really? That's not what they said:
Maintenance on an EV is tyres and brakes no oil, radiator, starters etc.
I've seen that claim umpteen times on here so forgive me if I missed whatever subtle clue there was that this was any different. There are actually liquid cooling systems on EVs as well so that's another nonsense claim.
Liquid cooling systems are by far the most reliable and efficient for EVs, like those used in Tesla, Jaguar, and BMW models.
https://www.mes-insights.com/why-electric-vehicles-require-cooling-systems-a-942771/
How much weight would be required for a petrol range extender, to kick in occasionally.
I’m thinking bmw i3 type of thing.
Why not just an extra battery pack on a trailer that you can hire when you need to deliver a kayak to Inverness from Portsmouth? 😉
Seriously though, it's dead weight for probably 90% of use cases so a plug and play option that works for anyone seems more sensible, all you need to spec is a towball and plug (not sure if a 13 pin socket has enough umph but you would need something different to a static point so it can charge and drive and still be idiot proof)
Hahahaha.
The point is far fewer parts and far less to maintain.
There I've said it 🙂
Do I need to spell out that less parts equals cheaper manufacturing.... So prices will be dropping as more are made.
I was assuming some basic understanding of economics & engineering
Re servicing / maintenance, my first service is 4 years or 50k miles, servicing for a BMW petrol is 1 year or 10k miles, that's all you need to know.
Of course you would. And so would everyone else. But given a decent EV will do well over 100 miles on a “tank” (Edukator, educate us) and average mileage is 30-40 miles a day (tops – some folk reckon 20), how often are you going to pay 3 or 4 times more to fill up. And if your smart the differential will be more than 3-4 times.
You just made that up, you've no idea what it's going to cost. I could just as easily say that charging will be free and it'll be your time twiddling your thumbs in the shop / cafe for 18mins that will have value (that's pretty much true of petrol stations, all the profit is made in the shop not at the pumps)
Well Octopus are offering 4 hours of charge a night at 5p per kWh and on a 3kW charger you’d squeeze by on that, easily on a 7kW
And Pod Point are suggesting 23p per kWh at fast charging point, noting that if you have E7 at home that might be 8p per kWh.
So a differential today of 3-4 looks about right.
As for me making this up - yes I do. But we call it forecasting and I do it as part of investment planning and innovation management for an electricity company.
The future is uncertain, things are often simpler when you do them than when you look at them.
But there will be upward cost pressure as more EVs rollout. Connected at rest allows charging when those costs are lowest and rapid charging doesn’t so my professional judgment suggests that costs will rise more for rapid than hargr at rest.
However price may or may not follow cost I agree.
PS within the industry the expectation is 85-95% of charging will be at home or work.
5-15% of charging will still be a lot of charging of course.
So taking, say 30%, off for winter
Once the battery is warm, which it will be on a long run, Winter doesn't make much difference, it's on commuter runs from cold you lose the most and even then it's not 30% which is unrealistically pesimistic.
The display on Zoé after the last full charge was 378km, that was in the middle of February with nothing but trips up to the ski resort with a battery around 10°C and a return with the battery at around 0°C.
They've totally dropped a bollock with EV's.... When my cordless drill runs flat I don't stop work for 45 mins, I swap the battery.
Modular batteries would be better and the charging station would hold a stack of them.
1 for small cars/motorbike, 2 for medium car, 3 large car, etc etc charging time would be irrelevant, just minutes for an automated battery installation
So prices will be dropping as more are made.
It doesn't always work that way. You do get economy of scale if you can reduce labour costs through mass production. However, some processes can't be automated and may require highly skilled workers, so costs may increase with production because of labour shortages. Same goes for some raw materials - if there are supply constraints, then prices will rise until demand matches supply.
Do I need to spell out that less parts equals cheaper manufacturing…. So prices will be dropping as more are made.
I was assuming some basic understanding of economics & engineering
No you don't, as far as I can tell nobody even questioned the cost.
As for basic understanding of economics and engineering, a reactor fuel assembly is just a tie bar holding a bunch of fuel elements together with an end plug and guides, mechanically it's very simple so by your reckoning cheap to manufacture. What you have forgotten is the complexity of the part is only one part of the manufacturing cost, you also have to source the materials, get then to a usable state and spend money on R&D to prove it will work as intended and finally gain the necessary licencing/approvals so that it can be sold. There are also a hell of a lot more valuable materials in a BEV than ICE, the demand for which will only grow through time so your claim that the economics are all in favour in an already flawed argument doesn't hold water IMO.
Re servicing / maintenance, my first service is 4 years or 50k miles, servicing for a BMW petrol is 1 year or 10k miles, that’s all you need to know.
Of course it is, that maintenance is tied up in the engine which needs clean filters and oil to work correctly. Your electric motor will, of course, have longer service intervals but it will need serviced none the less. I wasn't claiming otherwise.
Once the battery is warm, which it will be on a long run, Winter doesn’t make much difference, it’s on commuter runs from cold you lose the most and even then it’s not 30% which is unrealistically pesimistic.
The display on Zoé after the last full charge was 378km, that was in the middle of February with nothing but trips up to the ski resort with a battery around 10°C and a return with the battery at around 0°C.
So where was the range figure taken? At the resort or in the valley? Makes a big difference to your point. What %age drop would be reasonable then? And why did you go off on a long spiel about UK winter driving conditions if they make no difference anyway? Either they do or they don't, make your mind up.
I said " cold, wet and humid" and reported what others have said about Winter, Squirrelking.
And I think your 30% is an unrealistic out of the air figure.
I'm careful not to quote unrealistic range figures. If I charge in the ski resort and descend then recharge it dispalys a range of 500+ which isn't realistic. I'll post a pic if you wish of just that.
I gave you another figure to work with, the long term average consumption of 12kW/100km. Turn that around and you'll see the average range with a 52kWH battery is well over 400km, and that's recorded in the Winter, the Summer figure is usually 11-11.5. Again I'll do a photo if you are that sceptical.
The range I'm quoting is pesimistic because anyone who's run a Zoé low knows that there are hidden kms, the thing keeps going a long time after the display tells you it should have stopped.
When I made this statement:
In conclusion we plan long trips with less than 280km between charges and drive as necessary to get that.
I was already allowing for adverse conditions and allowing anough spare range to cope with a couple of broken charge points. In an ICE car I generally fill up before the reserve light starts flashing, same with an electric. Incidentally the range of the Zoé is better than that of my first car, a 1380 "S" mini without twin tanks - at the time petrol stations in Wales were further apart than charge points today, and you know, it wasn't a problem.
As for me making this up – yes I do. But we call it forecasting and I do it as part of investment planning and innovation management for an electricity company.
Ha fair enough, just my luck 🙂
I get what's happening now, I'm currently on Agile Octopus ToD tariff, Gridserve at Braintree charge 24ppkwh, but these discussions are always about the future in mass adoption and all scenarios as to how charging infrastructure will pan out are on the table, including my daft one. I've pretty much well hung my hat on superfast charging at Gridserve type electric forecourts and existing petrol stations (mainly because that's where I see cars going i.e. Porsche and the new ioniq5), I just can't see rows of streetside charging on every terraced street in Britain (reality probably being a mix of stuff), and 40% of the pop without a driveway will probably have to pay more unless they are lucky with their employer. Interesting times
I’m careful not to quote unrealistic range figures. If I charge in the ski resort and descend then recharge it dispalys a range of 500+ which isn’t realistic. I’ll post a pic if you wish of just that.
I gave you another figure to work with, the long term average consumption of 12kW/100km. Turn that around and you’ll see the average range with a 52kWH battery is well over 400km, and that’s recorded in the Winter, the Summer figure is usually 11-11.5. Again I’ll do a photo if you are that sceptical.
I'm not sceptical, you're just coming out with half the info needed to understand what you're actually saying. I also don't care what the figures are like for the south of France because we're talking about the UK. Anyway, I've looked it up and in cold weather 20% is about average. Obviously UK conditions will have a lower impact depending where you are but it's pretty obvious it's not going to wildly change much.
All the information is there, Squirrelking, you're just viewing it in bad faith and from your usual anti-BEV stand point. 🙂
Nice to see you've looked it up and that you've chosen a study base in Norway which is far further from the British climate than SW France in Winter. There are about 3°C between Pau and Exeter in March and about 6°C between Exeter and Trondheim.
It would appear your mission is to mislead, mine is to inform with transparency.
Been wondering about efuels batteries and hydrogen recently.
We are coming up to replacing one of our cars and thinking of getting a van to let us do trips and camp etc.
My issue is that i don't mind spending for a van but i refuse to spend 50k on a diesel vehicle when i can see big changes coming either with electric or hydrogen fuels (hydrogen is my preference).
What are peoples feelings towards changes over the next 2 years or so?
Big changes in batteries allowing decent length trips in a van or hydrogen infrastructure increasing?
My other thought is to buy second hand ice for now and use that for a few years until it all settles out the future direction becomes clear
Nothing much will change in the next couple of years. People who buy vans aren't the EV manufacturers' target. Renault make vans with smaller batteries than their hatchback and they're bought by la Poste, EDF, town councils and not many small businesses. They're a token gesture rather than serious rivals to ICEs in their class.
Hydrogen is highly inefficient and currently almost exclusively made from fossil fuels so I can't see it becoming a rival to BEVs. Do some research and if you think green you won't buy one.
VW showed their prototype T EV and Madame said something along the lines of we'll have one of those when it comes out. That was how many years ago?
sadly the least polluting van you can buy at the moment allowing "decent length trips" is a petrol T6 and drive it at no more than 56mph.
@squirrelking EV Database U.K. gives some real world figures for various cars, funnily enough mine seems to be around 20% loss in the winter but I don’t have my demister at full blast all the time.
Thank you Edukator
I had a feeling it might be like that. Will have a hunt around for a second hand van and see what the future brings and upgrade then.
All the information is there, Squirrelking, you’re just viewing it in bad faith and from your usual anti-BEV stand point. 🙂
Nice to see you’ve looked it up and that you’ve chosen a study base in Norway which is far further from the British climate than SW France in Winter. There are about 3°C between Pau and Exeter in March and about 6°C between Exeter and Trondheim.
It would appear your mission is to mislead, mine is to inform with transparency.
Where am I anti BEV? That's a rather bold claim. I just prefer people to substantiate what they are saying. As for transparency you provide absolutely no information unless challenged and even then you only choose French language sources, that is about as far from transparent as you can get. All the information is there? Sounds a lot like do your own research.
Anyway, it would appear Drac's experiences agree with the study, probably using more power due to wind (Trondheims highest hourly average wind speed for January was 14.3kph, Manchesters* was 22.1kph and Largs was 26.5kph. Pau was 10.9kph for reference) and wipers for wet driving which would mitigate against the temperature difference.
https://weatherspark.com/m/68746/1/Average-Weather-in-January-in-Trondheim-Norway
https://weatherspark.com/m/39871/1/Average-Weather-in-January-in-Manchester-United-Kingdom#Sections-Wind
https://weatherspark.com/m/36400/1/Average-Weather-in-January-in-Largs-United-Kingdom#Sections-Wind
https://weatherspark.com/m/43343/1/Average-Weather-in-January-in-Pau-France
*IIRC Drac is somewhere in Lancashire, I'm probably wrong though.
Hydrogen is highly inefficient and currently almost exclusively made from fossil fuels so I can’t see it becoming a rival to BEVs. Do some research and if you think green you won’t buy one.
That's why the French, German and Scottish governments want to invest so much into green hydrogen then?
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-government-hydrogen-policy-statement/
Do some research indeed. You're talking about grey or brown hydrogen, green hydrogen exists
People who buy vans aren’t the EV manufacturers’ target. Renault make vans with smaller batteries than their hatchback and they’re bought by la Poste, EDF, town councils and not many small businesses. They’re a token gesture rather than serious rivals to ICEs in their class.
VW showed their prototype T EV and Madame said something along the lines of we’ll have one of those when it comes out. That was how many years ago?
sadly the least polluting van you can buy at the moment allowing “decent length trips” is a petrol T6 and drive it at no more than 56mph.
There you go, PSA van with 205 miles WLTP, can do an 80% charge in 30 minutes, seems reasonable for a lunch break.
You're on a roll, any more easily disproven guff you care to share? Ironic that I'm supposed to be the BEV hater really isn't it?
My experience is that winter is about 20% worse on consumption than summer for a long journey if the weather's against you, with wet/wind as well as cold. Winter clear and dry is maybe 10% down on summer for the long journey. I don't think I have ever done a long journey at 30% over my summer norm. Generally long journeys are the focus to this debate because that's when range matters. In the scenario where you can't handle the 20%, you just go a little slower and it's mitigated probably back to the 10%. In fact, a lot of the time I do that anyway because I just see it as driving to the conditions.
With short journeys and long enough stops between for the car to get proper cold I could conjure up a scenario where my car was consuming at more than 30% over its summer norm over a whole charge. However, you're into relatively uncommon territory here and it doesn't happen to me. A small number of these journeys and you're not getting to range limits, so it doesn't matter. Lots of short journeys over a day totalling your range limit and, if none of those stops has charging available, you'll get to a situation where it does make a significant difference. It's not unheard of but I do suspect a lot of folk overestimate how often this is going to happen.
Graham - the position re. hydrogen will be the same in two years time.. noone makes it in quantities, the infrastruture is hideously expensive (pressurised liquid hydrogen, in non steel tanks in garages and no cars will be available. Hydrogen is going to be 'fusion' of the car world. Fantastic technology, in a few years....
Squirrelking - watch your weather for Trondheim 🙂 For a start the wind in January was anomalously low all along the west coast.. almost still here for days compared to before Christmas. Also beware comparing wind measurements UK to Norway :-). The UK measure peak gust, the Norwegians measure the background between gusts... I've known plenty of visitors from the UK try to go out in a 'stiff breeze' of 25kmh and barely be able to stand up
I don’t think I have ever done a long journey at 30% over my summer norm
I wouldn't focus on the 30%, I plucked that out of thin air and was rightly corrected.
Squirrelking – watch your weather for Trondheim 🙂 For a start the wind in January was anomalously low all along the west coast.. almost still here for days compared to before Christmas. Also beware comparing wind measurements UK to Norway :-). The UK measure peak gust, the Norwegians measure the background between gusts… I’ve known plenty of visitors from the UK try to go out in a ‘stiff breeze’ of 25kmh and barely be able to stand up
Interesting, that does make a difference. Thanks 👍
I think the take home is that 20% losses aren't unreasonable for the average driver which, given the range figures isn't a dealbreaker. It may be a sod on a long journey but even now a Leaf E+ has a claimed 239 miles (just over a Vivaro!) range which works out at a winter range of 187 miles in a worst case Norway scenario. That's still 3 hours driving averaging 60mph which is more than long enough between rests.
https://www.nissan.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/leaf/range-charging.html
My percentages weren't intended as a response to your post, really just putting some data out there.
NB. My summer norm is not as good as WLTP. Well, it could be for certain driving I suppose, like 40-60mph A road sort of territory and being careful, but I would think it more usual for a range-challenging journey that there's a fair bit of motorway or similar involved, in which case consumption is higher. So 187 miles in that Leaf isn't "worse case" by any stretch. My fastish motorway journey is already consuming 15% over claimed range in summer. I could do better but I'd be making an extra effort on consumption so I think my actuals are more representative of how most drive. I could also quite easily do worse but to drive like an arse and then complain about range I think is a bit childish. Although not unheard of among motoring journalists...
So 187 miles in that Leaf isn’t “worse case” by any stretch.
Sorry I meant to say that was the figure for the same model given in the Norweigan test I linked to before. If you're already at a defecit of 15% then that could indicate less than 20% loss to real world vs claimed. Dunno, with the winter options it could go either way.
The test focused on range, consumption and charging time. To test all the cars equally, the test drive was performed without preheating of neither cabin nor battery. All cars drove the same route on the same day, with similar style of driving, and climate control settings.
The test route consisted of city driving, highways and country roads in speeds from 60 kmh (37 mph) to 110 kmh (68 mph). All the cars had one climb through a mountain pass. The longest running cars climbed two mountain passes.
Cars sold in Norway might differ from other European markets. Some cars are sold with winter edition equipment, with heat pump, battery insulation and possibility of preheating. Althoug preheating was not used in this test, other differences in equipment might affect the winter range.
Drac is somewhere in Lancashire, I’m probably wrong though.
Northumberland.
Oaft, no comparison!
There is no “environmentally friendly” process that allows most of the population to transport themselves around in 2 ton vehicles.
Most of the population aren't transporting themselves in 2 ton vehicles. Most cars will be well under 2 ton, probably even under 1.5.
I hear this 2 ton thing banded about but it's Range Rovers, Bentleys, possibly pick ups that got the 2 ton weight.
But yeah, the ICE days are numbered.
I hear this 2 ton thing banded about but it’s Range Rovers, Bentleys, possibly pick ups that got the 2 ton weight.
🙋🏻♂️
Most of the population aren’t transporting themselves in 2 ton vehicles. Most cars will be well under 2 ton, probably even under 1.5.
I think the point is more that we should be looking to change the habit rather than the method of propulsion. Sadly town and road planning has yet to catch up with that idea.
You pressurise it and tank it, where’s the problem? It’s no more problematic than many other gases and certainly a hell of a lot less of a pain than CO2.
Except you can't.
The critical point of hydrogen is at 33K. That means that to liquify it at any pressure (it still needs to be ~200psi at that temperature). There is no practical way you're going to have 200psi, spheres cooled to below -240C on forecourts or in your car.
And yes you can transport it (it's actually very expensive as a chemical so you really do want to). The difficulty is scale. It's very low density, it leaks through solid metal. Even other relatively difficult to transport chemicals like ethylene are easy by comparison (a 1500-2000psi pipeline is fairly normal).
As you said, hundreds of km of H2 pipeline in Europe. But that needs some context, there's thousands of km of ethylene pipe in the UK alone (I only know that one off the top of my head as I used to look after a small part of the system).
The point about what to do with excess power is also incredibly hypothetical. Half the arguments in this thread are about the grid not having enough power! Economically there's no driver for such a huge excess. It's inefficient, it would drive down the value of electricity. Who's going to build such capacity for no return? Far more likely to end up with cars connected to the grid helping to balance it (which in itself will act as a moderator on the price as people will drive up demand for 'cheap' overnight electricity, and incresce supply at peak times when they all want to sell it back.
I hadn't meant to liquify it but yes, density is an issue that won't go away.
The excess capacity is a necessary evil when dealing with renewables. In order to guarantee the needs of the grid you have to over provide, you can't make a turbine turn on a still or stormy day and you can't make the sun shine more than it is on a given day. Tidal streams are more reliable and that's hopefully something that will be coming.
But all of that still ignores the utility of converting to feedstock for synthesis. Even if you didn't use it for direct energy use you would still use it for that.
But all of that still ignores the utility of converting to feedstock for synthesis.
The basic problem is that everytime you convert energy from one form to another, you lose energy. I think pumped hydroelectric is fairly efficient, but you're still losing 20% of the energy. Conversion from electrical to chemical fuel (hydrogen, for example) to burn in an ICE or in a fuel cell will be horribly inefficient because you lose energy in the hydrogen production, you lose more energy in the transportation, and then the ICE or fuel cell is going to lose another 50%. Charging EV batteries during off-peak load is going to be much more efficient.
But all of that still ignores the utility of converting to feedstock for synthesis. Even if you didn’t use it for direct energy use you would still use it for that.
I just can't see the economics ever stacking up for that.
Take ethylene, the feedstock for polythene plastic amongst others, and butadiene rubber. It's currently cracked from naphtha, and at the cracker I worked on that was done by burning pyrolysis gasoline.
So to overcome those economics you've got to make it cheaper to convert hydrogen into ethylene. And cheaper to use electricity to heat the cracker.
All at a time when you're reducing the price of ethane, naphtha and gasoline by reducing usage.
I just can't ever see an economic case for a solar powered cracker+polymer plant.
I'm not anti hydrogen by any means but any system needs to be considered alongside the alternatives and there seems to be a particular keenness for hydrogen among some folk that belies some of its issues. And that group seems to overlap substantially with the folk that have an anti view of BEVs. No idea why this is.
It is obvious that the more intermittent supply you have on the system the more you need in either controllable backup generation or storage. Storage can come in many forms. Batteries, pumped storage and converting it to hydrogen being three. They all have their pros and cons but of these, hydrogen carries the key disadvantage of more energy loss. It's good though on transportability where the vehicle concerned would be made too big/heavy/expensive/whatever with the battery it needs as a BEV, hence a decent likelihood it'll be used in eg HGVs.
A world where we have so much excess energy that we don't much care about efficiency, but a lack of control of its timing, is a hypothetical one where hydrogen potentially has a big part to play. I'm skeptical as to whether that's where we're heading though.
Ethylene and such are getting cheaper, true, I read something (possibly the National Infrastructure Assessment) recently where they predicted oil falling to $15 a barrel.Now the economics certainly stack up but on the flipside you will have increasingly stringent environmental regs. Industrial heating isn't suited to electrical heating in many cases (thinking along the lines of smelting and furnaces) so there is that as well. As you say though it's a lot of ifs and buts, nobody really knows what the future looks like but it would be extremely short sighted to dismiss it out of hand. As pointed out there are a few governments pursuing hydrogen as a policy and the aforementioned National Infrastructure Assessment has it as a key recommendation.
They’ve totally dropped a bollock with EV’s…. When my cordless drill runs flat I don’t stop work for 45 mins, I swap the battery.
Modular batteries would be better and the charging station would hold a stack of them.
Meh just think of upsizing scalextric small battery in car then once your on the motorway just slot in with no need to bother driving as the car can do it.
It’s ingenious battery packing that makes the cars, I think Tesla were demonstrating automatic battery changes yonks back.
There you go, PSA van with 205 miles WLTP,
Squirrelking, you earlier dismissed my suggestion that 280 kms between charges in a vehicle rated 395km was unrealistic and lopped 30% off for Winter giving 196km. On the basis of your own scepticism that PSA van will only do 102 miles. I reckon the van would be good for about 120 miles between charges without taking risks. Not much for a member who wants to do a fair distance between charges.
Having done a short shopping trip and another day out skiing with temperatures between 1°C and 10ish°C the verdict is:
378km initial range displayed and 100% battery
123km driven
Current range displayed 268km and 70% battery.
That's not far off the NEDC (latest post 2017 norme) or WLTP figure in conditions cold enough to have the verglas warning popping up.
What will kill hydrogen is cost. It's expensive to produce, transport, the infrastructure costs are huge and need to be carried by the consumer (drivers), and the cars are expensive because if you mess up, kaboom. Goodbye bangernomics or getting a local bloke to fix the plumbing.
Meanwhile in the real world BEV's are getting better, cheaper, and leccy will get cheaper.. so you only have a few users to pick up all the above cost.
So in 5 years when your petrol car dies do you go to a technology that's some large percentage cheaper, or get a car that's twice the cost of your current example?
Modular batteries would be better and the charging station would hold a stack of them.
This would work fine for fleets of delivery vehicles, taxis, etc. that stay near a central depot. Problem for regular cars is that you would never get your original battery pack back, so you'd have to have some sort of leasing scheme. Otherwise, once your battery started losing capacity, you'd just do a battery swap until you found one in good condition, then keep that one. The battery swap depots would just fill up with old worn out batteries and nobody would want to use them.
Squirrelking, you earlier dismissed my suggestion that 280 kms between charges in a vehicle rated 395km was unrealistic and lopped 30% off for Winter giving 196km. On the basis of your own scepticism that PSA van will only do 102 miles. I reckon the van would be good for about 120 miles between charges without taking risks. Not much for a member who wants to do a fair distance between charges.
Jesus ****ing christ I already admitted that was well out. That range isn't far off the Leaf E+ so if it had a similar 20% drop then so what?
I don't know what your problem is with me other than the fact I don't let spurious claims fly. If I talk nonsense call me out by all means. I'm all for BEVs but I'm not a fundamentalist like you are. There are flaws and other technologies have their own advantages. Try and take a balanced view of things just once.
If I talk nonsense call me out by all means.
I do and you get annoyed. The dispute started with you making a spurious claim of -30% range for Winter.
I have the advantage of having driven enough electric vehicles to know their flaws, how serious they are or not, and being able to present real world numbers.
On the van front I borrowed an electric Kangoo which had the same battery as the Zoé at the time. An objective observation is that the Zoé isn't far off claimed figures in real life until you get near an autoroute. Even with a small frontal area and cx of .29 the autoroute performance of the Zoé isn't great - the Kangoo's consumption at speed was high, much higher (no silly adjectives but you get the idea).
I think the PSA van will be great for delivery use but will be greedy on the UK motorway network because of its aerodynamics. I don't want to encourage someone who wants do do fair distances to buy one yet because if you buzz down the slip road and up to 70mph I suspect it will need a recharge in an irritatingly short distance and the driver will soon be down to 50mph and fiddling with the sat nav to find the next charge point.
I look forward to being proved wrong on Youtube, we'll see.