[Closed] Duffield + Flood = ?

The map represents a statistical model. With climate change flooding in the UK is going to get worse on average. I wouldn't buy a house there unless it was a good 20m up the hill from the max flood extent.

A 1-in-100 yr event could happen at any time and again the week later. The expected frequency is not a measure of when it can occur.

^this.

There is quite a bit of Duffield that isn't within that area. A lot of the houses of Broadway are really nice (although no idea of budget!).

Some of the bits of Allestree just over the hill are also nice and don't have the same issues.

No idea of the place personally but these flood maps are whats used in Flood Risk Assessment for developments and things...

https://flood-map-for-planning.service.gov.uk/confirm-location?easting=434499&northing=343299&placeOrPostcode=DE56%204GD

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I don't recall Duffield itself being flooded in recent years but the fields along the Derwent are floodplain and were under water a lot this winter. Flooding from Matlock through to Derby and beyond, as is not that uncommon - 4 or 5 times in the 20 years that we moved up to Derbyshire.

With one eye on increased frequency/severity if I was looking at Duffield I'd be looking at one of the higher streets, wouldn't have to be much higher than the main road, and checking if I was in the way of surface run off. Theres a chance the main A6 through (and northwards) may get blocked in bad floods. As I would anywhere else I was looking nowadays.

If I could afford to look at Duffield, I'd be looking at lots of other places on higher ground if it really worried me.

Statistics are to be taken with a pinch of salt. We moved to Copley in the Calder Valley in December 2015, 2 weeks before the floods that year took most of the valley away with them. We were lucky being on a new'ish estate that had a flood bank but those floods were inches away from going over the top. OK we thought, supposedly a once in a 80 year thing. But what with all the development further up the valley both new houses as well as flood alleviation up in Mytholmroyd etc, all that extra water that would have previously split out over undeveloped land etc was now going to come down the valley. Think we had bad floods again a few years later and again last year the water was about 4" off being as bad as Boxing Day 2015. We moved in the summer, being able to say "nope, this house has never flooded". I can only see it getting worse.

cheers, good food for thought...I've lived in Derby for 14years and noticed the frequency of flooding in the general area has increased, its hard to know when to be caution and when the data is worst case scenario.

its hard to know when to be caution and when the data is worst case scenario

Alot of effort goes into flood mapping its based on some pretty interesting techniques and the key bit is its calibrated against river gauges so its not just guessed.

I'm not sure what the EA use for their worst case scenario but its only going to get worse and it will be accurate enough to get very squeeky bum. And theres still no guarantee an absolute monster won't rip through. From memory Boscastle was about a 1in 450 year. So if you waivering on the edge of the flood map i'd be considering it a no go.

well the property would be on a bit of the white section according the map @ads678 linked to, but is pretty damn close to the light blue section, and roads connecting to it are all in the light blue section.

ummm, :/

I'm further up the Derwent valley and I can't recall Duffield being flooded in recent years.

It's too posh for that! Lots of people with connections will make sure Matlock and Belper get flooded first! 🤣🤣

The fields opposite the old Derbyshire Building Society HQ are flood plain though.

There have been 2 high water marks on the Derwent in the last 18 months. One flooded Matlock town centre, and was 150mm from the top of the banks at Matlock Bath. Duffield, afaiaa, escaped both times. Both of these recent ones were below, just,the highest recorded level in 1965.
Although your link shows, mostly, the Ecclesbourne, it is the Derwent you need to worry about as it has a far larger catchment area, and once it is full, it will cause the Ecclebourne to back up.
I wouldnt be too worried about buying a house in the area, unless it has been known to be close to being flooded in the last couple of years.
I have looked at houses in Little Eaton, but didnt go ahead, as they were asking far too much. I'd suspect that Duffield was in the same bracket - 5 miles away in Stanley, houses are probably £50k cheaper.

I’m further up the Derwent valley and I can’t recall Duffield being flooded in recent years.

It’s too posh for that! Lots of people with connections will make sure Matlock and Belper get flooded first!

And down as far as Milford. Past that bridge, too posh to flood!

5 miles away in Stanley, houses are probably £50k cheaper.

Because there's bugger all there. 6 miles away in the Principality of West Hallam.....😎

Don't forget that today's 1-in-100 yr food event is more than likely to be a 1-in-85 yr event in 10 years time.

The 1-in-100 yr then will be a much bigger event with a larger surface area/footprint. The polygons on that map representing postulated events by return period will look very different.

Ask yourself this question....why do hydrologists rarely live near a river?

6 miles away in the Principality of West Hallam…..😎

Hayeswood Road and Derbyshire Avenue are regular calls for me - housing repairs.

Hayeswood Road and Derbyshire Avenue are regular calls for me – housing repairs.

I'll wave next time I see a van.

Don’t forget that today’s 1-in-100 yr food event is more than likely to be a 1-in-85 yr event in 10 years time.

Today's 1-in-100 year storm intensity is already higher than it was when I was last designing sewerage back in the 80s.

'1 in 100' represents the size of the event, not the frequency of occurrence.

More accurately (and now officially) described as 1% Annual Exceedance Probability.

so a curve of increases flood intensity the 1% AEP (or 1in100 in old money) is the flood size that has a statistical likelihood of 1% chance of occurring.

This changes every year, hence why a 1%AEP event in 2050 is going to be a VERY different proposition to one today.

Please excercise caution when purchasing property and make sure you understand this. I've been screamed and sworn at many times "You told us this would only happen once every 100 years"

Ask yourself this question….why do hydrologists rarely live near a river?

Please excercise caution when purchasing property and make sure you understand this. I’ve been screamed and sworn at many times “You told us this would only happen once every 100 years”

Most people buy houses in these areas and they think "it'll be ok, its not happened before". But those maps are devised by people I used to work with, and I know they would never live in a flood warning or alert zone.

I was sending out those flood warnings out myself from the EA in 2015 while I was at work on Xmas Day, I know I woudln't live in one as what I saw in the police pictures and online made my blood run cold, its very very scary being flooded and I woudln't wish it on anyone.

Eyes Meadow is the only area I know of that floods, Eaton Bank / Duffield Bank highly unlikely due to their elevation.
Don't live in Duffield (couldn't afford it!) but ride through there to local-ish trails for 20 years and not known anywhere else flood.

ok, house has had a offer, Would be keen to move to duffield but between price and the flood risk it dont leave many options...want to get in the ecclesbourne catchment, Anyone know much about the ford lane area of allestree?

Ford Lane in Allestree? not really Duffield if so but maybe it sound better to the estate agent lol.

If so Ford Lane is on a hill so depends where on the hill, at the bottom you have the river so the risk is high, at the top the risk is pretty much zero.

I've been living in the area for 25 years now. In all my time here i'ver only ever known places I on the banks of the Trent like Willington that are susceptible to flooding and never known the Derwent to flood apart from the other year where Matlock flooded...Duffield and Allestree were fine. I have no idea how those flood risk charts are made up or how to interpret the stats they show but the flood risk in Duffield is very low. I know so many people who live there and have absolutely zero issues with home insurance or anything. I've knows people who've lived in Duffield for 40 years and never flooded. there is a stream or tributary that runs though the centre of Duffield that I think might be the flood point if there were to be a flood but that is in the town and Duffield is at the bottom of a very steep sided valley so once you deviate from the valley floor things get steep quickly and you gain elevation very quickly. the Derwent is below the level of the village.

Villages off the banks of the Trent are more risky. Th Trent runs through a flatter plain rather along the bottom of a V-shaped valley so when it does flood it impacts a much wider area. I've known several times in the last 25 years where friends and work colleges have been on 'flood alert' and had the Trent lapping up their garden a few feet from their back door, so I'd be careful anywhere near the Trent, but the Derwent over the years has Been fine as far as I can remember. Also flood defences have been incorporated in the really high risk areas over the years.

Allestree is alright. I guess its in the next division down from Duffield in the league table of desire`ble places to live in the area in my mind. I'd rather live in Duffield despite the supposed flood risk. Better transport connections, better pubs and restaurants. Less of a sprawling estate feel. And Duffield is walking distance to the Hollybush pub. That's worth paying a premium for.

What we've seen is not a reliable indicator of what can happen. It's akin to the "xxxx-est day since records began". If you only started measuring yesterday then you'll always break records within a fairly static system. Even a hundred years of observation data is not fully representative of what can happen.

The way in which climate change will affect weather risk, particularly flooding is not as nice and easy to predict. Things are definitely changing so the system is not "stationary" hence the mean and variance are changing. What does that mean? Well the models that describe today's conditions are not really going to be very good at representing tomorrow's conditions.

This is where anecdotal evidence is almost meaningless. I've lived here for 50 years and never seen any fooding is not a reliable indicator of what the flood risk will be like even in the next 10 years

Just be aware that Ford Lane is a popular rat run to cut through from the A6 to A38.

Well yes, its forecasting and modelling - its never reliable. its like driving a car by looking through the rear view mirror. But what we can determine is that the Derwent vs the Trent is quite more resilient regarding flooding and climate has always been dynamic and we've seen wet periods before, so we have enough historical evidence to have an educated guess about how climate change will affect local areas once we get half a clue as to what the climate change effects will be. We still don't know - are we going to have a drier more Mediterranean climate? If so flooding will be the least of our worries. Or a wetter more stormy one? Ask ten scientists and you'll get 20 different answers. So historical patterns are not 'meaningless' and we can have half an idea of the impact once we know what the climate will do, so we're not ignoring the past and totally resetting.

Also climate change is slow. The changes we might see in a specific local area will be gradual. We can build flood defences very quickly. The insurance industry is worth billions so there is plenty of willing people out there willing to invest in flood defences for their millions of potential customers. Duffield is a a fairly large area with quite a few people living and working there and businesses - not to mention a pretty main rail line between the village and the river and the main A6 road running through it so an important area for infrastrucutre, so if flood defences are needed then they will be built. In the last 10 years there have been a few flood defence schemes along the Trent to mitigate flooding there and new housing estates consisting of many thousands of homes on flood planes (crazy I know!) are being built, so again, plenty of reason to justify expensive investment in flood defences for insurance companies to mitigate claims.

If you want to live in Duffield, live there. You'll be fine. I'll bet a significant part of my body on it. I'd move there in a heart beat if I could. The right side of Derby for mountain biking and cycling and access to the stunning Peak District. So many upsides for such a tiny risk of flooding. Also about 90% of the homes in Duffield will be well away from the main area of high flood risk - like I said, you don't have to deviate much from the main town centre and you're gaining elevation pretty quickly.

Those flooding charts look about right to me, in my lifetime I can remember the A6 being under water just as you enter Duffield coming from Derby, and before the left turn off to Wirksworth!

Personally I wouldn't buy a house on Ford Lane because of what marcus said above, rather than the risk of flood.

want to get in the ecclesbourne catchment

Looking at the flood risk map, you might be able to choose a house with a lower risk, but the schools are right in the risk zone.

I actually said "anecdotal evidence is almost meaningless". Historical observation data informs the models, so is useful.

Assuming flood defences will be built is naive. The EA don't have the budget to build what they need today, nevermind tomorrow, due to significant cuts in the austerity program. Also, given that smaller budget will a little town near Derby be seen as a priority? That's doubtful. Bear in mind that flood defences in isolation are not enough and just tend to shift the problem elsewhere unless they are part of a wider holistic program.

Finally if you think that the insurance industry will pay for flood defences you are going to be very disappointed. They may have Corporate ESG statements espousing warm fuzzy feelings and messages about the environment but at heart they are money making machines who will kill their granny to make an extra 2% profit. As most insurance contracts are written on an annual basis the underwriters are not interested in anything beyond the duration of that contract as it will have an impact on their ability to make commission.

You could flood all of Derbyshire and it will put a minor dent in a large insurance company's cashflow. It will not be an event that affects their long term capital or solvency requirements. Hence they are not interested in paying for flood defences.

Good points about Ford Lane.

want to get in the ecclesbourne catchment,

Be careful what you wish for. Much better variety and quality of drugs available than other local schools. Very cliquey if you don't have the money, academic ability or sporting prowess to keep up with one or all of those cliques.

No direct experience, but two lads I know through Scouting who attended Ecclesbourne have separately told me the same thing. Friends I know who live in the catchment opted for Derby Grammar instead, didn't like what they heard.

We are in the Ecclesbourne Catchment area and live on the edge of Derby (in a new build!). We brought the house 5 years ago and the Ecclesbourne thing was a big selling point for the developers. Son was 2 at the time so it wasn't really a big consideration for us.

He is 7 now so 4 more years but not sure if we will still be here in 4 years time or might have moved on. This isn't where we plan to stay forever but was affordable to get us onto the housing market.

What are you actually looking for other than Ecclesbourne in terms of Amenities?

I've heard similar stories too MoreCashThanDash - very much like Lady Manners in Bakewell there's almost a private school operating inside a state school.

Lady Manners, Trent College in Long Eaton, let's not even talk about Repton.

I know the last two are fee paying, but there's a recurring pattern in schools where money buys you access, either fees or catchment. Friends around the country report similar issues.

I live there and have been around the area for 40 years, most of it is totally fine as just some bits on the flood plain to avoid. What street are thinking of ?

Aren’t there plans to close the slip road onto the A38 from Ford Lane when the flyover works commence?
Thought I remember seeing it in the plans.

I’ve heard similar stories too MoreCashThanDash – very much like Lady Manners in Bakewell there’s almost a private school operating inside a state school.

I’d look into that closely. Eccelsbourne and Lady Manners have very good reputations, which seem largely based on their focus on school uniforms and poaching affluent kids from other catchment areas. There are other schools in the area which in terms of value added are doing significantly better. The idea that any of the local state schools are rolling in cash is a joke.

It's worth looking into Anthony Gell in Wirksworth too. I know several kids who are there and they are all happy and doing well.

There's better riding from Wirksworth too, and it won't flood! 🙂

Belper School on the other hand (which my daughter just abandoned sixth form before Christmas to do an apprenticeship) is a pile of poo. A new head a couple of years ago has transformed a school that was on the up to one that's on a race to the bottom.

Absolutely this ^
If I were looking to move to that part of Derbyshire I'd be all over Wirksworth (and Gell school) well before Duffield. I've never seen the attraction of the place and the nearby riding is crap.

Disclaimer - my daughter is in Yr11 at Gell and it's a fine place, Manners was out of the equation immediately for reasons mentioned above.

It’s worth looking into Anthony Gell in Wirksworth too. I know several kids who are there and they are all happy and doing well.

My kids are at Manners because of where we live. If separating children from their friends and busses weren’t an issue I’d chose Gells.

great info cheers....

we've looked at places on ford lane, but its a bit of a half way point between where we are central Derby/darley ward, and duffield. the current idea is try and edge into the ecclesbourne catchment whilst staying very close to where we are. The other school that seems to have a good results is Landau Fort. Hopefully by then Woodlands might have improved so when it comes to apply time, there will be options.