[Closed] Double dip recession

Solo - Member
"How can you increase output with austerity measures?"
Interesting.
Its the Gov thats tightening its purse strings.
What has that to do with economic output of the UK ?.

Okay pendantos, how can the government stimulate increased output with austerity measures?

I am not an expert but this was so obvious to those who have their eyes open that you did not need to be an expert to forsee this

The way I saw it, it was a balancing act. On the one hand, austerity to reduce spending, on the other borrowing to boost the economy. Both could have worked, both could have failed. Either could have had less effect than external factors.

Seems contradictory that you can be so sure of yourself and yet still admit you are not an expert.

Now, I'd rather have gone for the borrowing option for ideological reasons, but conversely our elected govt would have done the opposite for the same reasons. And I think people knew what they were voting for on the whole. I don't think they knew the full consequences though, but then I don't think anyone did.

The thing is that before these things happen, you get people predicting the full range of outcomes. It's basically pot luck who ends up right after the event.

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

Solo - Member
Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Still waiting for an argument regarding the bond markets.

Just saying 'bond markets, duh!' isn't point btw.

Individuals' finances and a country's economy are not the same thing, people keep making this mistake.

Jam today but you can pay for it next week, by which time you'll have interest to pay so rather than going without jam for two days you'll have to go without it for a week. Next week you can have jam if you like, but you'll need to promise to go without for a month. After that you can still have jam so long as you promise your children won't have any, ever.

the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse. Even your link says it

Anyway, I took from the article that the current fiscal policy might be good for us in the longer term whilst not performing as well as others in the short term. So neither here nor there in terms of proof of either side's argument.

[i]Faced with moving to the other side of the world for a job, or paying a bit more tax in the country I was born in, I know what choice I'd have preferred[/i]

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Taxation isn't the answer.
So I'm glad labour aren't running the show at the mo.

Solo - Member

"Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall"

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Take money out two things happen - tax receipts fall and demand falls as people earn less and have less to spend

Gross oversimplification of course but this is the lesson sensible people learned from previous recessions.

Solo

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Maybe - but we are nowhere near it given that taxation is significantly higher in Germany and France both of whom are doing rather better than we are ( remember you pay for healthcare on to of tax there)

Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.

😆

Edit

😆

[i]Still waiting for an argument regarding the bond markets.

Just saying 'bond markets, duh!' isn't point btw.
[/i]

Oh dear.
You really don't know what you're attempting to talk about.

Blaming the government's tightening of the purse strings, for insufficient economic growth, completely over looks the private sector.

For a Gov to prop up an economy, and employ loads of people, it can only do two things.
Raise taxes. Borrow.
Both revenues hit my pocket.
Which means I spend less.
Getting the picture ?.

[i]Solo your ignorance is remarkable! But your confidence admirable.[/i]

😆

That is class.
😉

You really don't know what you're attempting to talk about.

Solo - where does your expertise on this topic come from?

Cept that theres a taxation threshold, beyond which, the collector starts to cripple the supplier.

Taxation isn't the answer.
So I'm glad labour aren't running the show at the mo.

But if noone is working and everyone is on the dole, where is the money coming from, and where is it going?

Last week, the Victorian government here in Oz laid off 500 health workers because of high unemployment. How, prey tell, does adding 500 more people to the dole queue reduce unemployment? 🙄

I just wonder how long the Tories cn go on blaming Labour for everything. It starts to look less and less convincing the longer time goes on.

So solo - please explain a few things
1) How are we going to get a growing economy again
2) why are Germany and France both performing better despite taxing higher than here and putting money into the economies
3) why did Osboune actually do some quantitative easing ( that he said he was not going to do)

Just because I mentioned that I might bring it up when we were discussing the growth figures.

Here's TJ's critisism of THM's post on another thread last night

[b]Wildly inaccurate speculation would seem to sum it up along with grossly biased analysis and pejorative language showing your biasses[/b]

Funny that, eh? People who live in glass houses and all that 😉

"It is clearly not good news, the missing link in the economy has been confidence," said Graeme Leach, chief economist at the Institute of Directors.

"These are relatively small falls, so we shouldn't be too alarmist.

"[But] regardless of the figures, it is the message that comes out to business - to be cautious - exactly when we want them to be a little more aggressive in terms of recruitment and investment."

We got through the last one, we'll get through this one.

That's a relief. There's me thinking I'd been made redundant and lost my house. Hang on a minute...

Seems to me there's a lot of 'I'm alright Jack's in this country.

The outlook is not looking good under the current lot, but many predicted a sustained period of bumbling along the bottom, regardless of Policy. This, i presume is due in part to previous Labour policy and also the economic disaster in 08/09 when thousands were loosing their jobs overnight. World economic meltdown or not, this happened on Labour's watch and no caveats were given to no more boom and bust.

Zulu - apart from 2 things
!) I was right
2) I fully acknowledge my biases and accept we all have them - as do you for that matter. Teamhurtmore does not

Thank you Ox, you have obviously read the whole article. TJ, I know you a very excited about this news and the opportunity to personalise an argument yet again (despite on-going requests not to) but you really must stop putting words into other people's mouths, otherwise you simply discredit the value in your own arguments and end up looking silly.

I have little if any political persuasion (despite your constant assertions) but come at this from an economics perspective. Theory and practice tells us that monetary and fiscal policy work better in combination than in isolation and, from a theoretical perspective, on the relative shapes of the IS and LM curves. Gavin Davies (of left wing persuasion, to the extent that this matters) points out the applied stuff here on the current UK balance between the two and draws comparisons across geographies. He concludes that the current, "policy mix may not have been able to support output growth in the last few years, but may still work in the long term" (and he is hardly a Tory apologist). FWIW, I am less confident and have often criticised GO on here for an over-reliance on monetary policy based on my conclusions of the shape of the LM curve and the broken nature of the banking system. Hence my comments on regulation yesterday....if you press ahead with the (correct) regulation of the banks too quickly you reduce the chances of current monetary policy working. For that reason, I am very happy to criticise GO's current policy mix.

(edit after reading the last post. Final request to stop personalising things. As they say in tennis, play the ball not your opponent}

Considering that labour had 10 years to ruin the economy, it's only fair that *whoever* is given the same period to repair it.

The economy was great throughout the vast majority of Labour's time in office 😉

Considering that labour had 10 years to ruin the economy, it's only fair that *whoever* is given the same period to repair it.

I'd rather keep out of these but..

🙄

10 years relative economic stability and then a 'global financial crisis' to firefight?

I'm sure you weren't running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting "It's doomed, the economy is all doomed!"

So who thinks we'll see any contrition from Dave and Gideon this afternoon? Or any indication whatsoever that they even give a ****?

Zulu - apart from 2 things
!) I was right

Well, of course, because you always are, aren't you TJ 🙄

TJ, is this really the best use of your time?

Solo - Member
Oh dear.
You really don't know what you're attempting to talk about.

Blaming the government's tightening of the purse strings, for insufficient economic growth, completely over looks the private sector.

For a Gov to prop up an economy, and employ loads of people, it can only do two things.
Raise taxes. Borrow.
Both revenues hit my pocket.
Which means I spend less.
Getting the picture ?

No, please expand. I'm fiscally ignorant, remember?

I wonder what it would actually take for the government to admit they need a Plan B?

I'm sure you weren't running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting "It's doomed, the economy is all doomed!"

+1! It all seems very closely linked to the rapid increase in house prices and I remember several threads on STW about house prices, stating they would go up forever because "they're not building any more land". I don't remember anyone complaining about that?

I'm sure you weren't running around in the hazy summer of 2007 shouting "It's doomed, the economy is all doomed!"

Lifer: but you are fiscally ignorant if you support more government borrowing. That makes you, in essence, like 80% of the rest of the population.

Perhaps more if you live in the North East. Which is full of them.

So who thinks we'll see any contrition from Dave and Gideon this afternoon? Or any indication whatsoever that they even give a ****?

Transparent trolling and not adding anything constructive to the forum. Ho hum. This place is really going downhill.

SPOT ON!!!

swedishmatt - Member
Lifer: but you are fiscally ignorant if you support more government borrowing. That makes you, in essence, like 80% of the rest of the population.

Still not explaining why. Don't you know?

I have little if any political persuasion (despite your constant assertions) but come at this from an economics perspective.

You espouse a right wing economic position continually. You also make snidey personal attacks ( reread your first post on this thread)- and you then pretend you don't. That is the intellectual dishonesty.

it really is pointless to debate with you at all

Ah, the hazy summer of 2007. I put my house on the market that June, eventually selling it in November at a realistic price. Even in June it was pretty obvious to me something was wrong and the housing market was seriously stalling but many were still trying to flog their houses at silly prices around my area.

CaptainFlashheart - Member

TJ, is this really the best use of your time?

entertained me for a bit 🙂

Frankly, I wonder if government economic polices (tax / spending / everything) actually have any noticeable long term impact on a country's overall financial position at all.

TandemJeremy - Member

it really is pointless to debate with you at all

Excellent, then please stop. Everyone will be happier as a result.

Gross oversimplification

Wow, really?!

Lolz

Excellent, then please stop. Everyone will be happier as a result.

This +++lots

I guess this is the stage in the thread where you now start playing the victim, isn't it, TJ?

Not at all Zokes.

This is not about me - this is about the disaster the tories are making of the country and a little vicarious amusement watching the mental gymnastics of the tories supporters trying to defend it.

So all you tory supporters - the current tory policies are clearly not working - so how are we going to get out of this mess?

The answer TJ is looking for is: hold a general election and get the Labour Party in. That Milliband chap looks a down-to-earth man of the people. Then we can all just go back to work and look forward to the unicorns and rainbows that await us in our 4-bedroom double garage new builds that only cost £100k.

I wasn't loading up on credit cards, maxing my mortgage and getting a car on HP as many many people seemed to be doing. The very type of things that caused the whole mess. I think most of us could see (certainly by 2007) that this couldn't be sustained.

The mess wasn't simply caused by borrowers maxing out credit cards or mortgages. You may be a minority but like it or not but since the 70s we have been a nation of buy now pay later. There is always risk involved with credit but those who have credit actually give more back into the economy than those that don't. It's what the banks have then done with that increased revenue that caused best part of the issue.

Nothing is sustainable for sure, something was bound to give, like a downturn in the housing market, but the impact of the global financial crisis compounded any wobble to tipping point and this can't be attributed to any one single country or government. The question is surely no longer about what cause it but who is going to sort it.

What Cameron et al are doing seems to be pushing the country in the wrong direction when other countries seem to be clawing their way out of it.

I think most of us can see this.

Such arguments are ultimately a waste of time as the lack of proof that the opposition view would work better means it's all just pointless foghorning. If the route out was so predictable and obvious no government would take an unpopular route, they do afterall all employ people with significantly more skills in that field than STW - all would have taken the same stance and whichever got in power would have implemented it. As said earlier in the thread, either route provides possibly ways out and both rely heavily on external factors as well as internal. What's more, the fluctuations we are seeing here are tiny in comparison with historic fluctuations in times of plenty. I'm sure if this had happened on labours watch the tory side would all be jumping up and down wringing hands too. This is why I find politics a bit depressing and stupid.

This is not about me

Oh, really?

TandemJeremy - Member
S'ok Wrecker - [b][u]I [/u][/b]might just have to mock a few rabid tories tho.

TandemJeremy - Member
It will amuse [b][u]me[/u][/b] watchingthe usual tory apologists on here trying to spin this thio.

Could've fooled me 🙄

TandemJeremy - Member
Not at all Zokes.

This is not about me - this is about [b]the disaster[/b] the tories are making of the country and a little vicarious amusement watching the[b] mental [/b]gymnastics of the tories supporters trying to defend it.

So all you tory supporters - the current tory policies are clearly not working - so how are we going to get out of [b]this mess? [/b]

I imagine that this is what reading the Daily Mail is like.

Such arguments are ultimately a waste of time as the lack of proof that the opposition view would work better means it's all just pointless foghorning

Absolutely true, but...

they do afterall all employ people with significantly more skills in that field than STW

on a similar note. I would look up Gideon's experience and skills with economics.

Surely Vince cable should would have been a better candidate for chancellor but then again he wasn't in the Bullingdon Club with Cameron was he?

So all you tory supporters - the current tory policies are clearly not working - so how are we going to get out of this mess?

It's what the banks have then done with that increased revenue that caused best part of the issue.

What Cameron et al are doing seems to be pushing the country in the wrong direction when other countries seem to be clawing their way out of it.

I think most of us can see this.

on a similar note. I would look up Gideon's experience and skills with economics.

Well said coffeeking. It's amazing how good any party sounds when in opposition, all they can do is criticise and say how well they would do if they were in power. What we really need is somebody with the balls (no pun intended, certainly not Ed) to take a long term view rather than focussing on the next election.

Short termism gets us nowhere but that's all politicians of any ilk can offer. Perhaps if politicians could be held accountable for their actions we'd all be in a better place, I'd like to think it might force them to think over a longer term.

I don't think I've yet actually met an intelligent Labour supporter.

In all seriousness.

"We had it gud undah labah, ya knaow, an d now the evil tories is wat dunnit ya knaow"

It's because Labour had the almighty credit card out, rather.

Is that Muwamba/God thread still going?

I bet this goes to more pages.

Religion and politics. Take your side then defend it no matter what.

Coffeeking - I would basically agree with you apart from one aspect - the tories have used the excuse of the recession to driver thru their small state ideology. Very skillful use of their powerful propaganda machine to persuade people it the only answer and then do it despite the obvious negative consequences.

Yo assume all politicians are honest in their motivations - I am certain the tories are mendacious.

Edit
for balance labour tend to be weak and incompetent these days

Yo assume all politicians are honest in their motivations - I am certain the tories are mendacious.

Economy risks were exaggerated, says Nobel prize winner

24 October 2010 Last updated at 04:09 Professor Pissarides said the chancellor should have concentrated on the weakness of the economy
The UK's latest Nobel Prize-winning economist has said George Osborne exaggerated the risk of a debt crisis such as that which affected Greece.

Professor Christopher Pissarides said last week's swingeing cuts package announced by the chancellor was taking "unnecessary risks" with the economy.

Mr Osborne has said drastic action was necessary to avoid a Greek-style collapse in investor confidence.

But Professor Pissarides told the Sunday Mirror the risks were "minimal".

'Postponing cuts'
He said: "It is important to avoid this 'sovereign risk'. But in my view Britain is a long way from such a threat, and the chancellor has exaggerated the sovereign risks that are threatening the country."

Professor Pissarides said the current weakness of the UK economy should have been of more concern for the chancellor.

[b]"Unemployment is high and job vacancies few. By taking the action that the chancellor outlined in his statement, this situation might well become worse," he said.

"These risks were not necessary at this point. He could have outlined a clear deficit-reduction plan over the next five years, postponing more of the cuts, until recovery became less fragile.[/b] The 'sovereign risk' would have been minimal."

He added: "Overall, the chancellor is putting the economy through some unnecessary risks because of his fear of sovereign risk, which does not appear justified."

Professor Pissarides

Great point, well made, wrecker. He may have a Nobel prize for economics but he has a silly name so what does he know?

It's a [i]really[/i] silly name though isn't it? 😀

TJ - can't dissagree with any of your comments in that last post, but I do think very few politicians are in it for anything but personal gain. It's just easier to cover your own gain when you're pleasing those below you short term, especially if you can leave your enemy to pick up the mess in the next term and blame it all on them (applies both ways, not just the current way).

I wonder what it would actually take for the government to admit they need a Plan B?

About a 250K private meeting with Cameron I should imagine....

Anyone want to chip in before we all lose our jobs?

It's amazing how good any party sounds when in opposition

Ed Millibean sounds good?!! 😯

[img] [/img]

To be fair to the Tories their approach is always going to take longer to work and Labours would work bettershort term with potential for problems later. Problem is when a bit of a balanced approach is needed we get dogmatic ideal driven economic policy which is ****ing the whole thing up.

"So how are we going to get out of this mess?"

Probably like a large part of the "developed/western" world by suffering and enduring a long period of low, sub trend growth with largely irrelevant negative and positive blips/noise along the way (except for 24hour news and politicians of course). `Politicians of all persuasions will no doubt pretend otherwise but we have really made very little progress towards solving the massive build up of leverage among countries, financial institutions and households. Austerity - what austerity? That hasn't even started in practice beyond tinkering and rhetoric. The western banking system is held together by band-aids and households still have too much debt. It will take a long, long time for all of this to be worked through especially since most policy instruments (both monetary and fiscal) are increasingly impotent.

Not a good time to be in the public sector, financial services, a pensioner, a school leaver, a graduate, a saver.....ok, in fact not a good time for 99% of us (or should that be 99.9%?).

Since this is an MTB forum, there is at least some good news. The recent "gap jumps" in MTB pricing will hopefully prove to be equally unsustainable.

It's a good time to be a major Tory donor though.

Teamhurtmore - report post.

Please mods stop him he's scaring me!!

And what of Ed Balls'?

I wasn't suggesting we would be better managed under a Labour government. But the point is was making, if you quoted the rest rather than a convenient misrepresentation, was;

Surely Vince cable should would have been a better candidate for chancellor but then again he wasn't in the Bullingdon Club with Cameron was he?

You'd see I was pointing out there was a perhaps a better candidate with a background and history in economics in the coalition who 'might' have performed better in this situation that one of Cameron's posh mates. Of course that's entirely speculation.

For me this is about who is fit for the job, I don't think the current government is and, neither for that matter, is the opposition in any fit state to really make a difference. That concerns me.

Don't even get me started on Theresa May 😀

Sorry A_A, but I started my working life in Japan and have stared a "lost decade" directly in the face. It makes GO and EB look pretty!

Actually, on the point of a Coalition. Has anyone seen that other chap, you know, the deputy prime minister.

Whatever his name is.

😀

If we put "growth" aside for a second, I'm hoping we can get the "cuts" into proportion - so, just how much of a "cut" is reasonable?

lets say "the state" is 5% bigger (real terms) than it was in 2007.

Was the country borked in 2007?

If government spending (in real terms) and staffing, and resources, and NHS facilities, were cut back to where they were in 2007 - after 10 years of Labour government, would we be significantly worse off as a country?

Or can the size of government and its associated spending only ever increase?

The problem is philosophy, we as a race believe that we can do what we like.

That the truth is irrelevant and that effective efficient management of resources is unimportant.

If we had people like branson or gates, any number of highly able individuals in charge of giving us direction the world could be a good place.

However as long as the majority of us embrace a delusional, self destructive philosophy that cannot identify useless idiocy and we keep demanding that others sort out our problems, we will all continue to be in a very precarious set of circumstances as a race!

We where always in trouble, they simply managed to hide it from us for a long time 😉

binners - Member
So who thinks we'll see any contrition from Dave and Gideon this afternoon? Or any indication whatsoever that they even give a ****?

No. I think they'll blame TJ.
It's the party line.
And not too complicated for them.

He's had more criticsm on this thread than any of the politicians that have taken this country into recession.

elliot-20, I actually agree with much of that however I didn't conveniently misrepresent anything. Cable would never work, he'd refuse to tow the Tory line and the Tories would want to dictate economic policy. As a result, we have Gideon (yeh, [i]I know[/i]). So, the other alternative is Balls who is as useless as Gideon.

elliott-20 - Member
Actually, on the point of a Coalition. Has anyone seen that other chap, you know, the deputy prime minister.

Whatever his name is.

i think the lib dems have learnt their lesson a bit, they were used as human shields by the torries at the start but are hiding now
also trying to figure out the forthcoming local elections which they will probably do very bad in

Oh dear god! I've just listened to Wallace stumble over his words through the most limp-wristed, pathetic 'attack' on the government yet, at PMQ's. Its tragic!!! The *ing ineffectual imbecile can't even splutter a sentence properly. Will someone please please please put him out of his misery

Part of the reason the whole country is so *ing banjaxed is because these Bullingdon *s don't have an opposition worthy of the name and are pursuing an economic ideology that benefits a minuscule minority - themselves and their friends - and leaves the rest of us utterly *ed!!!

Teamhurtmore: stop writing so much sense.
Zulu eleven: same goes for you.

Here's some light relief:

https://twitter.com/#!/OsborneDrunk

Not read much of this thread.......binners hits the nail on the head after 7 post imo.

Am i allowed to post on this thread as a non big hitter though?

Am i allowed to post on this thread as a non big hitter though?