[Closed] Double dip recession

Well I'm sure that's made you very happy, TJ 🙄

The effects of high petrol prices havn't worked their way through yet...

I bet he's shouting "I knew it, I KNEW IT!"
We got through the last one, we'll get through this one.

So obvious this was going to happen.

Furious more like. Its so unessasary. It will amuse me watchingthe usual tory apologists on here trying to spin this thio.

Economic vandalism from a bunch of idiots. The damage they have done in two years is incredible. Inflation up. growth down, unemployment up

The thing is, everywhere outside the South East has never come out of recession in the first place. So the whole 'double dip' thing is totally irrelevant. The fact that this came as a surprise to anyone at all, just shows how far removed both the politicians and the media are from the day to day reality of the rest of the country. Strokers!!

I'm tempted to start writing here but that wouldn't do any favours to my mental well being considering the OP.

Murdoch may be about to stick the knife in as well. PMQ could be good today.

From the link

These figures are slightly worse than many expected, but the fact that the UK is now technically back in recession should not detract from the underlying reality, which is very much as predicted.

The UK economy has been bumping along the bottom for more than a year and is still struggling to gain momentum.

Double dip means nothing unless it's a significant drop/rise - it's the long bump along the bottom that's the concern. If today's figure had be +0.1%, preventing it being classed as a double dip, it'd not really have made any difference.

really TJ?? really....

so are you suggesting that the labour solution of "lets spend our way out of this" would have been the right solution.....theres no F'''ing money!

this problem was caused back in 08/09 by people not living within their means and more debt is not the way out

I predict another "excessive arguing" ban.

no whey, really

what can i expect to change, except the six o'clock news saying stuff like "double dip" a lot? and some financially inept and morally corrupt labour mps hoping some of the more short term memory impaired voters can still get to the polling stations next month?

next you will be saying that the economy is contracting, exports are down and unemployment is up.

Dogma drives them, even when it's obvious that a particular plan isn't working, they just carry on regardless.

PMQ could be good today.

I wish! Unfortunately it'll just be another cringe-inducing display from the inarticulate half-wit presently on work experience as the leader of the labour party, as once again faced with an open net, he spoons it into row Z from 6 yards out.

I can't watch it any more

[quote=TandemJeremy said]So obvious this was going to happen.

And you have the nerve to lecture THM thus:-

YOu need to understand that what you consider axiomatic and an established fact is not so when you come from a different direction

Priceless.

S'ok Wrecker - I might just have to mock a few rabid tories tho.

Its really funny watching them doing the doubletalk trying to explain why this is OK and not the fault of the tories incompetence.

Great, no point listening to the news on the radio on the way home tonight. I'm fairly certain that the last time the constant media "are we in recession yet?" actually added to the whole mess.

There was a a great quote before the figures were announced of "most city analysts expect low growth from the quarter" - these are the same idiots who caused a lot of the problems in the first place.

We got through the last one, we'll get through this one.

From a personal perspective, I'm not sure I can.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/apr/25/eurozone-crisis-live-uk-double-dip-recession

9.48am: Today's data is only the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP in 2012, based on aroudn 42% of total output during the quarter (it mainly covered January and February).

Joe Grice says there is: "as much chance of an upward revision as a downward one"

Interesting - Obviously it may be worse but I wonder if it's better (even up to +0.1% so avoiding the apparently calamitous double dip) if TJ will be shouting his apology so loud.

As I said, the mess the Tories have made is the long term flat line around 0% growth. Small double dips are irrelevant except to those who just like lazy headlines.

Aye you have linkled the opinion of as journalist there

I cannot believe the might chariot of private enterprise has not careered through the recession like a Tsunami of prosperity like Gideon said it would.

Still I am sure his tax breaks for the rich will take their full effect, raise the tax generated and bring the rush of private enterprise to save us that he keeps insisting is coming.

Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall

But dont worry folks remember Gideon has no Plan B so things can only get .......ah bollocks

According to a gov spokesman on the radio, it's the weather that's to blame

TandemJeremy said » So obvious this was going to happen.

I ( and many others ) predicted this a year ago

Not the same at all as teamhurtmore. It was obvious that the tories incompetence would lead to this - and it has come true. What teamhurtmore does is accepts as established facts idealogical interpretations and positions then extrapolates from that to reach erroneous conclusion

We got through the last one, we'll get through this one

Apparently we didnt.

So even their pathetically manufactured 'fuel crisis' didn't quite push us out of recession eh?

I blame the weather for stuff too 🙂

I figured that the fuel crisis was to deflect attention from other things. You may be right though - if the Jan/Feb figures showed us heading towards negative growth I can easily believe that would be an attempt to increase revenues. Anyone got the figures to hand for what -0.2% growth equates to in GBP and how much extra tax the goverment made on the additional petrol sales?

It will amuse me watchingthe usual tory apologists on here trying to spin this thio.

Interesting - Obviously it may be worse but I wonder if it's better (even up to +0.1% so avoiding the apparently calamitous double dip) if TJ will be shouting his apology so loud.

Fortunately ATP, the rest of us can access sensible arguments and commentary including that of an ex-Labour party member and long time donor, Gavin Davies in today's FT. Articulate, balanced and based on sound economic facts. It's an interesting analysis (if inconvenient for some):

http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2012/04/24/why-uk-gdp-continues-to-lag-the-g7/#axzz1t2gf0phL

But never let facts, get in the way of a good argument 😉

Has the 'March of the Makers' not worked then?

How terribly disappointing. I had my hopes pinned on that.

And the re balancing of the economy away from the short termism of financial services? That's going well, I presume?

so are you suggesting that the labour solution of "lets spend our way out of this" would have been the right solution.....theres no F'''ing money!

Well, some Nobel prize-winning economists have suggested exactly that, but what do they know?

Tax cuts for the rich, that will sort it.

I live near Bacup...its been in recession since the early 80's

Probably due to the weather....

JY - I don't think it's good either way - my point is that the double dip really means nothing other than for politicos who like the playground name calling that will now ensue.

I see that its my industry that is pulling us down again. Construction really is desolate at the moment. Singularly depressing being in this industry.

swedishmatt - Member
I'm tempted to start writing here but that wouldn't do any favours to my mental well being considering the OP.

Please do, I need a laugh to cheer me up on this rainy day!

enduro-aid - Member
really TJ?? really....

so are you suggesting that the labour solution of "lets spend our way out of this" would have been the right solution.....theres no F'''ing money!

this problem was caused back in 08/09 by people not living within their means and more debt is not the way out

Yawn. Were Labour in charge of Greece? Portugal? Spain? Ireland? The USA?

Pop - he appears with his desperate defence of his beloved tories

From your link - a tory supporting paper thru thick and thin

. Looking at the whole period since the recession started, the UK GDP figures continue to lag behind all other countries in the G7, except Italy:

Others believe that the weakness of UK output, especially in recent quarters, [b]has been due to the government’s programme of fiscal austerity, and see the short and long-term weakness of GDP as a repudiation of that decision[/b].

Pretty sure reasoned argument will not get me anywhere so I will sigh and let TJ have his fun.

Would love to see TJ try and do better and watch as we decend into socialism...........

And that's exactly the point, double dip or not is irrelevant except for those who enjoy playground politics and name calling. What matters is the long term "weakness of UK output"

If I didn't watch the news I wouldn't know there was a recession on...

I think I might stop watching the news.

JY - I don't think it's good either way - my point is that the double dip really means nothing other than for politicos who like the playground name calling that will now ensue.

Whilst I don;t doubt that clubber, at ground level or at least the views from a lot my clients is bleak to say the least.

Clubber - the point is tory economic policy is damaging the country badly. This is just one indication of it. Yes of course tiny negative growth or tiny positive growth makes little real world difference but it so amusing watching the rabid tories on here attempting to defend the economic incompetence of their beloved tories

KT - Absolutely but again, that's not based on it being a double dip or not - it's about the growth being so low for so long. Growth at +0.1% for two years is just as bad as a double/triple/etc dip that goes on for the same period averaging out to the same growth.

How can you increase output with austerity measures?

No doubt the government have ****ed up, but I'm totally unconvinced that Labour would have done any better.

Yes, TJ, that's pretty clear to see but crowing about something that essentially has no relevance makes you look petty and ill informed.

Unless of course you're just trolling them in which case, carry on but maybe plan somethign constructive to do with your upcoming 'time off' 😉

clubber - Member
Growth at +0.1% for two years is just as bad as a double/triple/etc dip that goes on for the same period averaging out to the same growth.

How can you increase output with austerity measures?

You can't

Clubber - the point is tory economic policy is damaging the country badly.

Without getting into the politics of it all, if you seriously think there would have been any other outcome had Labour been in charge then you are a very deluded individual. So crack on with the Tory bashing.

The world economy is shagged beyond repair, particularly in the Eurozone. The government of a single country, regardless of what colour tie they wear, can do the sum total of **** all to alter that.

Ah yes, it's those nasty Tories wot dunnit. So in the last two years they've taken what was a booming economy with absolutely no problems at all and flushed it down the toilet? Of course they have.

You have to live above your means for more than two years to create the kind of mess this country is in, sticking your head in the sand and pretending everything is OK while magicking some more money out thin air isn't the way to deal with it.

If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?

TJ - forget the politicking and Tory bashing, do you really think we can borrow and spend our way out of this? The debt has to be repaid sometime, why should our children pay it for us? I think we've screwed them over quite enough without loading them up with even more debt.

that's exactly the point, double dip or not is irrelevant except for those who enjoy playground politics and name calling. What matters is the long term "weakness of UK output"

I get your point that politicians will use ot to score political points but it is not irrelevant.

How can you increase output with austerity measures?

Private sector billions are coming our way soon, honest

Well really you can't say. I suspect that had labour still been in power they'd be so ineffective by now with in fighting that they may have been just as bad. Ignoring that though, I think their policies may have meant a slightly better trend though with increading hostility towards them as they get accused on spending without control by the RW press as the perception was that it was taking too long to get decent growth again.

Flying ox - interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK.

No doubt, but Labour did this for 10 years. To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

Can I have the lottery numbers for the weekend please

As predicted by everyone bar tory apologists the financial incompetents now running he country have pushed us back into recession.

Like anyone competent has ever run the country.

Tonyd: well put.

Lifer: heard of the bond market? No? I suggest you spend some time doing that. Heard of ratings agenies? You know those things that triggered the bail out of Greece etc (who also lived beyond their means, like the UK)? No? Time to do it then. Off you go.

Labour were proposing lesser cuts, which would have enabled them to cut more (matching the current tory position) or not depending on the economy. Darling called this his 'trap door'.

Boy George has left us with no options.

Can I have the lottery numbers for the weekend please

To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

Heard of ratings agenies?

Are those the ones that gave the sub-prime and toxic loan packages that started the whole shit storm Aaa ratings?

[i]As I said, the mess the Tories have made is the long term flat line around 0% growth. Small double dips are irrelevant except to those who just like lazy headlines. [/i]

it's all very well describing it as small, the devil is in the detail. Back in q3 2011 there was a small rise, about 0.2% in GDP, but that hid a 6% slump in manufacturing. So we have city profits masking bigger problems elsewhere in the economy (the economy that effects most of the population).

I ( and many others ) predicted this a year ago

*face palm

swedishmatt - Member
Lifer: heard of the bond market? No? I suggest you spend some time doing that. Heard of ratings agenies? You know those things that triggered the bail out of Greece etc (who also lived beyond their means, like the UK)? No? Time to do it then. Off you go.

Guessing if you had a point to make you would have made it rather than post a pathetic condescending reply like that.

Clubber - the point is tory economic policy is damaging the country badly. This is just one indication of it.

Can you unequivocally prove that the guy in red, who was probably bullied a lot at school, would be doing any better with his policies?

I happen to think he would, but it is not 'clear'.

Lifer - its a classic tactic - apparently economics is far too complicated for us to understand thus we don't understand why what Gideon is doing is for our own good an it will all be rosy soon. Jam tomorrow!

Flying ox - interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK.

An example of these countries would be...? They wouldn't be the ones duped/forced into borrowing from the ECB in a never-ending spiral of debt, would they?

[img] [/img]

So obvious this was going to happen

Ooookay. I've got to call you up on this one.

Absolutely NOTHING in economics is obvious. There are about a billion factors involved in ways that no-one fully understands. So you happened to pick the right outcome up front - well hurray, you had what - a 33% chance?

I'm no Tory apologist, I also think they have done the wrong thing and are overall clueless, but I'm not so arrogant as to go on about how I was right like a smartarse.

It's all about balance of probabilities. Like gambling.

Honestly mate, you are not an expert. None of us are.

Without getting into the politics of it all, if you seriously think there would have been any other outcome had Labour been in charge then you are a very deluded individual. So crack on with the Tory bashing.

The world economy is shagged beyond repair, particularly in the Eurozone. The government of a single country, regardless of what colour tie they wear, can do the sum total of **** all to alter that.

But some other Eurozone countries are doing a lot better than we are.

If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?

Individuals' finances and a country's economy are not the same thing, people keep making this mistake.

I just wonder how long the Tories cn go on blaming Labour for everything. It starts to look less and less convincing the longer time goes on.

The biggest mistake is treating economics as a science.

Molgrips - that s the point - I am not an expert but this was so obvious to those who have their eyes open that you did not need to be an expert to forsee this.

To suggest they'd have performed any better for the last 2 is false

I stand by this.

But some other Eurozone countries are doing a lot better than we are.

Flying Ox - better in reality. Some nice numbers and graphs in theamhurtmores FT link

[i]Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall[/i]

Please explain 😉

[i]How can you increase output with austerity measures? [/i]
Interesting.
Its the Gov thats tightening its purse strings.
What has that to do with economic output of the UK ?.

[i]If you earn £20k per year but spend £40k what happens?[/i]
Exactly.

[i]Well really you can't say. I suspect that had labour still been in power they'd be so ineffective by now with in fighting that they may have been just as bad[/i]
Labour would be cranking up the taxation.

[i]interesting that a lot of other countries were following the labour line on managing the recession and are continuing to do so and what a surprise - are doing better that the UK[/i]
Nope 🙂 they are just borrowing more for thier citizens to have to pay off later.
They are deferring recession via borrowing.

[i]Lifer: heard of the bond market?[/i]
A common theme with the left.
Fiscal ignorance.

[b]LUNCH ![/b]

You can give a man a rope....but rarely does he build his own scaffold, tie his own knot and release his own trap door!

Anyone who "does" find economics "too" complicated will be perfectly able to read the "full" Gavin Davies piece. He is one of the UK's leading economists and a man of wide experience including the ability to be a Labour supporter, and advisor to a Labour Government and a senior (now ex) employee of Goldman Sachs (link on previous page).

Very clearly he lays out:

The importance of this data from a deeper economic perspective
The reasons why the UK slipped back into recession
Why the UK is in for a period of sustained low growth
The causes (note the balance there)
The outlook and assessment of current policy choices

FT copyright means you cannot copy this stuff, but worth the subs anyway.

Solo - Member
Lifer: heard of the bond market?
A common theme with the left.
Fiscal ignorance.

No point either?

Labour would be cranking up the taxation.

Faced with moving to the other side of the world for a job, or paying a bit more tax in the country I was born in, I know what choice I'd have preferred

Back to that 'trillion quid' graph - does that mean that debt has increased since the condems got in? I thought they were supposed to be balancing the books 🙄

[i]Rather predicable that if you strangle the economy it will stall[/i]

Still waiting for an explaination of this, please.

Teamhurtmore -

the basic fact is your beloved tories economic policies are making the situation worse. Even your link says it

. Looking at the whole period since the recession started, the UK GDP figures continue to lag behind all other countries in the G7, except Italy:

Others believe that the weakness of UK output, especially in recent quarters, has been due to the government’s programme of fiscal austerity, and see the short and long-term weakness of GDP as a repudiation of that decision.