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Don't know if this has been covered in the c.300-odd forum pages, but I can't be bothered to read them all(!)
So, if the nation loses its collective mind and votes for Brexit, does this constitute a vote of no confidence in Dave and leave his position untenable?
I've no idea, but in the Commons an issue can become a vote of no confidence in a government when the outcome undermines a core policy - is this the same?
Discuss.
Preferably nicely.
No.
Fair enough!
Debatable. I read an article saying that the leave vote would want DC still in charge for the first part becuase it will undoubtedly get messy and they would rather not have their names smeared with the difficulties.
Yes it does.
....just to keep the topic going.
The Prime Minister can change without causing a general election.
Just saying 🙂
And to prevent accusations of bias. Don't forget that.
Here's hoping. 😀
Here's hoping.
I think Cameron is the best of a bad lot when it comes to a Tory PM. Hoping he stays for as long as we have a Tory Government....
The Prime Minister can change without causing a general election.
Leadership challenge probably the favourite, then?
I've read a few articles that would suggest we'd have an election if we vote to leave. Mostly because the tory party is so divided on brexit.
a vote for leave doesnt even trigger article 50 (the mechanism by which a member country starts the process of leaving)
Given how close the vote is likely to end up, there's still going to be lots of horse trading between Thursday and either an Article 50 if it goes to "Leave".
If vote is for Leave, I'd like to think the PM does not start the process of leaving, but instead, holds the EU to ransom and gets other EU countries with high Exit populations to show some spine to initiate a proper renegotiation without themselves going to a referendum. Make sensible changes and allow all sides to step back from calling each other's bluff,
If we go, call me Dave will step down and let Gideon in.
Nope, it doesn't.
Gideon's bolt will be shot in that scenario and he wouldn't be able to command confidence.
Yes, definitely, just like its [i]definitely[/i] going to trigger WW3, the collapse of western civilisation and a new referendum on Scottish independence as well 🙄
A vote of no confidence could.
Or a 2/3rd majority vote on a bill to call one early.
Otherwise it will be the first Thursday in May, 5 years after the last General Election.
Unless of course another bill is voted in to amend that.
edit: but my money would have been on referendum saying vote out, cameron triggering a leadership challenge (he's already said he's standing down before the next election), a brexiteer winning to become tory leader and PM, the bill to trigger the official notice to leave EU failing, the pro-brexit-PM triggering a confidence motion in an attempt to pass it anyway, and losing that confidence motion. leading to UK in EU, no formal notice to leave, a failed bill and a general election.
Given how close the vote is likely to end up, there's still going to be lots of horse trading between Thursday and either an Article 50 if it goes to "Leave".
As someone who has paid not a great deal of interest, I thought Remain was in the lead by some way?
Stoner - Membera vote for leave doesnt even trigger article 50 (the mechanism by which a member country starts the process of leaving)
Given how close the vote is likely to end up, there's still going to be lots of horse trading between Thursday and either an Article 50 if it goes to "Leave".
If vote is for Leave, I'd like to think the PM does not start the process of leaving, but instead, holds the EU to ransom and gets other EU countries with high Exit populations to show some spine to initiate a proper renegotiation without themselves going to a referendum. Make sensible changes and allow all sides to step back from calling each other's bluff,
Interesting, but would he be able to do that or would the leave camp just put on too much pressure for further negotiations to stay in to be viable?
While it woudl in my book be the right thing to do, there would be massive issues with voter confidence etc as well
since there is likely a parliamentary majority in favour of in, in the event that there is a plebiscite result in favour of exit, the PM could survive long enough to pilot the UK through some changes and then fall on his political sword for ignoring the referendum result, but doing so "in the nations best interest"
Pretty much as said above, the most likely outcome would be a leadership challenge from within the Conservative party.
As Stoner pointed out this referendum, unlike the Independence one, isn't binding in any way. I'd agree that the immediate action following an exit vote is likely to be years of horse trading and baffling bureaucratic debate, most likely followed by a second referendum in a couple of years when some real options are put on the table.
This makes me a lot less anxious about thursdays outcome and the ramifications of a leave vote 🙂
Yes, definitely, just like its definitely going to trigger WW3
You should know by now not to trust what Boris tells you.
Hmm. Not black and white (unless anyone's an expert in the fixed term parliament rules).
It almost certainly means the next stage in all out war within the Conservative party, inevitably with a leadership challenge. The Leave camp will put up a victim (Johnson) to get through the hard initial period before the long term leader emerges from their ranks.
Whether this then drives an election depends, I think, on the extent of the fight. Too much, and it could spill into an election before 2020. And it's possible that Leave could really consolidate its position within the Conservative party (and with it the inevitably dominant Conservative position across the UK).
The bigger question for me is how fast Scottish Nationalism drives the agenda for another IndyRef - this is where I think the real danger to the UK comes from:
- Scotland chooses to leave the UK and join the EU
- Immigration from the EU continues via the ROI/Northern Ireland border (we're not quite the island we think we are)
- Labour continues its slide into Corbynite/Islingtonist oblivion.
- Permanent Conservative government for England and Wales (with Gove or similar right-winger in charge)
EDIT: too busy having a call with my boss to type and generally overtaken by everyone above..!!!
Certainly not automatically, though it could prompt (would, should?) a leadership battle in the Tory party.
Of course it's not a binding Referendum. Parliament doesn't have to accept or act on the result.
Daves already said he'll stay as PM.
Shirley you've all heard that? 🙄
Yay, let's have more elections!!
**** off....
Dave is fundamentally weakened either way. Unless remain wins by 20, I would have thought he'll be on his way by next year, quite likely quicker if Brexit wins. Maggie found out that prime ministers cannot always dictate the terms of their departure.
New incumbent will need to go to the polls shortly afterwards. Labour may not have time to ditch Corbyn before a general election.
Wow, how Undemocratic have we become? If the vote is out (it won't be) then that is the will of the people and parliament will honour it - that is their job and purpose. Not necessarily immediately, I'm sure there would be some quick negotiating with Europe as they try to prevent it happening. It won't happen though. I'm hoping for a remain victory by the narrowest of margins to send a powerful message to Europe and bolster anti-Europe sentiment within the EU to hopefully trigger some real and proper EU reforms. I suspect remain will win by a reasonable margin though which might be interpreted by the EU as a big endorsement of the current structure and direction of the EU.
**** off....
Quoted for posterity.
I'm hoping for a remain victory by the narrowest of margins to send a powerful message to Europe and bolster anti-Europe sentiment within the EU to hopefully trigger some real and proper EU reforms.
The problem is too much of that already, how is europe meant to shape the future when ****wits like Farrage are our European representatives.
If we want to mould the the EU in the future, then maybe people would be better voting for MEP's with substance rather than pathetic expense fiddlers who's only aim is to sink the boat.
Could it trigger a Tory leadership challenge though, if we exit?
Boris Johnson as pm, that's a sobering thought..
Jesus Christ I hope not! After the never ending campaigning for the referendum, I couldn't cope with a ****ing election off the back of it!
If we want to mould the the EU in the future, then maybe people would be better voting for MEP's with substance rather than pathetic expense fiddlers who's only aim is to sink the boat.
Absolutely if we remain and thats a huge if, self serving conmen like Farige will never help deliver the kind of change many would like to see, leaving the Brexiters resentment simmering away
Dave has said if we vote Out then there is no going back. He'd never fib...
Op,
It does not matter once we are out ... 😛
Their job and purpose is to understand how to manage the country. We elected them all (democracy!) to do that - not to fix internal party divisions by a referendum. You can't run an economy on emotions; it's a complex job. Pilots don't ask the passengers how to fly the plane.parliament will honour it - that is their job and purpose
Radio 4 was funny this morning, some big cheese was blithering on about why we should stay in /go out ( which ever side he was on ) he was so passionate about it. When presenter said glad to see your so passionate and have such high values / standing on the issue, will you resign from government if the result doesn't go your way?
He basically replied no 😆
DC's big **** up on this particular issue* was jumping to a referendum with no useful EU reform in the bag. If there was a way for our referendum to put enough pressure for some real EU reform, and that did away with the likes of Farage, as others have said, that may be the best outcome.
*He may have made others, on this and other issues.
not to fix internal party divisions by a referendum.
Every single major party has, at some point over the last few years offered us a referendum on Europe.
The conservatives have entered the last two elections offering a referendum as a manifesto pledge
You can't sit there smugly and say that its anything to do with 'party divisions' its just asshattery because you're afraid that your side isn't going to win.
There was an manifesto pledge, and it has been delivered, that can only be right and proper.
An out vote would open the floodgates for others to follow.
If we remain would it mean goodbye to Gove / Johnson for a long long time?
Whether we leave or remain it will be the end of Farage. Leave then he doesn't have a job anymore. Remain and he will have to stand down surely(hopefully)
No
No. Fixed term parliaments, only way to have an election sooner is a vote of No Confidence and Tories will see to it that doesn't happen even if there is a leadership challenge. There has been some soeculation they may call a September election to wrong foot Laboir and Corbyn but I don't see why they wouod risk it unless they where confident of a big win.
My scenarios (guesswork)
If Remain win Cameron will stay till 2019 if he gets his way for his own 10 years in the job and to rehabilitate Osbourne who is very unpopular now with Leave Tories. However its my belief there will be a leadership challenge which imo would not be won by Cameron or Osbourne - its a run off between Boris and May.
If Leave wins PM is Gove or more likely Boris
If the the result is say 52 v 48 for Leave I expect an almighty sh1t show as Cameron tries to hang on avoid triggering Article 50
As from other threads I hope nobody is tempted to vote a certain way on the eu on the basis of the current government and getting rid or people. That's a stupid idea.
Vote leave? My personal guess it all gets a bit crazy. First major period of uncertainty is getting to the leave action - zero investment and confidence in anything. That alone would probably lead to a ge as no parties have a leave based manifesto or policies on it.
Chuck in the following 2-5 years of uncertainty as people work out how we actually function in both the transition and post exit and it's looking great, despite fixed term Parliaments I'd expect a lot of no confidence motions leadership challenges and uncertainty. Could a leader/party survive devaluation of the pound or a hike in interest rates?
And that's before people work out they are not getting all the awesome that was promised.
Oops! Wrong thread ... should be the other one ...
If we want to mould the the EU in the future
What planet are you on? Seriously, you just don't get it.
What planet are you on? Seriously, you just don't get it.
Well if we leave we can't if we stay and don't bother to attend/snipe from the sideline and complain whrn we can't but hey what about using a Remain vote to get stuck in and actually more involved and shape a better future?
Well if we leave we can't if we stay and don't bother to attend/snipe from the sideline and complain whrn we can't but hey what about using a Remain vote to get stuck in and actually more involved and shape a better future?
We've had little influence in shaping the EU. A vote to Remain is permission for more of the same with even less influence!
It's pure fantasy or wishful thinking to suggest otherwise.
I can not believe any sane person would cast a vote to Remain, which would see any subsequent votes cast in general elections be of diminished value.
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Time to belive it. The arguments belong in the other thread.
So what happens to the EU if we vote out? Italy and Denmark are both supporting the Out campaign and will follow us if we go. Does this make the leave vote a better or worse option if other countries are looking at going the same way?
I'm probably going to vote in. I think we'd be fine if we voted out - we'd still thrive and is probably the right decision if we're thinking completely selfishly about it, but I do worry about the impact on the EU of us leaving especially with Putin in the wings waiting to cause trouble. We're about one sixth of the EU's GDP - that is a significant chunk to suddenly lose out of your economy no matter which country you are, our GDP never shrunk anywhere near that in the 2008 recession and look at the chaos that caused. So the impact on the EU of us leaving will be significant so they won't want us to simply walk out with 15% of their GDP.
There is no reason why we have to leave the EU right now, so lets stay in for the sake of the rest of the EU and we can always drop out in the future, in 10 years or so, if the EU does continue down it's current path and goes down the pan. We're in a unique situation in that we're not tied into the Euro so we could bail out quite easily at any time, so, if like the ERM, things go really tits up, then we can bail out then. We are one of the only nations in the EU with a growing population - in a few years we'll overtake Germany as the most populous nation in the EU therefore the weight of our vote in the EU will be greater, as I believe the weight of the votes depend on the nations population. Therefore we might then be able to carry greater influence in the EU than we're currently able to muster. I think the EU deserves one more chance to realise that the current course it's on is wrong and needs to change.
At the moment there is no real reason to leave, when you net off all the upsides and downsides of being in the EU then it probably evens out (nobody really know's). But if I wake up on Friday and we've voted to leave then fair enough, I think we will certainly do as well if not better out, I just worry about the rest of the EU and the knock on effect of any destabilisation there.
We're about one sixth of the EU's GDP - that is a significant chunk to suddenly lose out of your economy
The trouble with that argument is that if we vote to leave we won't leave the EU economy as we'll almost certainly remain part of the single market. Which of course also means we have to still allow free movement of people 😉
A considered blog post on the likely constitutional and political road map that might come out of a vote for Brexit
https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2016/06/22/alan-renwick-the-road-to-brexit/
Very good post stoner, and perhaps some uncomfortable reading for some
The trouble with that argument is that if we vote to leave we won't leave the EU economy as we'll almost certainly remain part of the single market. Which of course also means we have to still allow free movement of people
And deal with all the red-tape and legislation, things won't stop being CE marked, and if they aren't they'll be BS kite marked, and BS will have to comply with the EC directives so the net effect is the same.
Is now a good time to resurrect this thread?
Probably not, but again - remember, all the certainties are now eroded.