[Closed] Do we need to start a Windyref / Wexit? Thread

Personally I fond it strange that most agree for a Welsh Exit to work (and the same for Scotland) is to join the EU.

For me, it's pretty simple, admittedly I care more about economics than sovereignty. I understand what you're saying about our 'voice' in Westminster v our voice in Brussels, but look at recent History, Westminster has always routed investment and infrastructure away from Wales and towards the South East of England, it was the EU that invested in Wales and it's investment we desperately need to turn the tide.

We've all just been given a lesson in independence. We can't just be independent, we're part of a global economy, we need to have trade deals in place, not just so we can buy BWMs and iPhones but so we can buy food, have power etc, keep jobs how many people in Wales are employed by organisations that aren't Welsh? Or don't trade with other Business that aren't Welsh?

Independence, even with a transition period happens as the clock strikes midnight, but everything still has to work the next day and trade deals take years, decades even.

Taking the lesson of Brexit, When it comes to International Diplomacy and Trade, Size, Wealth and Strength is everything, but even as the 7th largest country in the World, we learnt a difficult lesson in humility, The US didn't roll out the red carpet, the EU didn't roll over and China didn't care. We left poorer and with a lower rate of growth than we would have otherwise. If it wasn't for Covid, the effects would be far more noticeable.

As above, their are options, but they're all very painful, the truth is with our low GDP per capita, our high unemployment and other social issues, we're £20bn a year short in tax revenue, over 25% of our GDP. As part of the EU we're able to trade not only within in, but use EU trade agreements to trade outside of it, it's a 'oven ready, build your own country kit'. Or we go the hard route, accept we're now a small, poor country where important goods (pretty much everything) now costs multiples of what it did and we offer the world cheap semi-skilled Labour.

The YC ‘independence in your pocket’ is no better than the Brexit Leave campaign. It offers everything, to everybody.

I think that's a fair criticism.

But the whole argument about economics is largely a matter of belief - on both sides.
If you don't like the idea - most things will be worse.
If you do like the idea - most things will be better.

But whether you like it or not, the idea of Welsh independence is perfectly reasonable.
Wales is a country of 3.1 million people with all the basic bits and bobs you need for some kind of independence.

It could function in a similar style to any small country.

The main thing it lacks is a sense of self-confidence.

If you don’t like the idea – most things will be worse.
If you do like the idea – most things will be better.

I try to be a pragmatist.

There's no way in which it won't get worse initially, if anyone says otherwise I'd love to know how. That's the cold hard reality of a such a massive tax deficit, without the UK effectively paying us an allowance via the Barnett formula.

Wales would have to create a Central Bank of it's own, and then issues bonds or borrow in some way from day 1. We wouldn't be able to borrow as cheaply as the UK can due to our size and economic profile. Even if the UK gave us a sweetheart of a deal which meant we could leave without taking our slice of the UK national debt, AND no making payments for defence etc, we'd be borrowing 25% of GDP every year just to meet our current commitments, never mind funding for development etc, which we may not be able to do. We would have to cut public spending by 25% immediately, austerity that would make 2008-2020 look like a walk in the park.

The only alternatives really a kind of 'Soft Wexit' either we stick with the UK in all but name, or we plug into an existing global trade group, neither is an option for us to pick and choose from the UK may not want to offer us a sweetheart deal to leave and then keep paying us £20bn a year whilst we get on our feet, equally, given we voted so conclusively to leave the EU, they may not want to do the same.

How quickly things could get better depend on a lot of factors, but I believe a lot of Wales's problems in terms of mutli-generational unemployment and lack of investment would take decades to fix.

Which brings me back to the core problem, not "Do we stay, or do we go" (RIP Joe Strummer) but "where does Wales want to go?" How much pain are we willing to accept in year 1, in year 5 in year 10, so reach a this dream of a Independent, Wealthy, Healthy, Happy Wales?" and like Brexit, if you don't con people with an all things, to all people vote, you'll never get enough people to vote to leave.

Scotland has a much easier road to Independence, they have a clear, easier road to take as they votes over 60% to remain, a GDP per Capita 50% higher than ours, a economy 3 times the size and it's own Banks.

They only need a bit of a nod from the EU for automatic readmission and they've got a plan and a way to execute it.

I agree that Scotland's route out is easier but it's still many many times more difficult that Brexit was.