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https://twitter.com/YesCymru/status/1367263680145031168?s=19
Brexit seems to have let the nationalism genie out of the box
Brexit seems to have let the nationalism genie out of the box
Or maybe it's other folks nationalism that they want away from, ever consider that?
There was a piece on this in tonight's ITV news.
I think it came across as there is a growing dislike of Westminster government as much as anything else.
I live in the SE but I sympathise with them. It's easy to say "but they voted for Brexit" just like England did but I'm sure there are a great many that feel totally alienated by the whole mess. Just like a lot of the "Pro Brexit" English do.
I think it came across as there is a growing dislike of Westminster government as much as anything else.
This is something the brexiteers seeded, the belief that experts, elites, distant bureaucrats etc are the problem
Now it's biting them in the arse
Yes, I think this is actually: "we don't want to be governed by the Muppets in Westminster"
To be fair, a sentiment probably shared my most people in England by this point.
It is difficult to interpret these numbers. You could ask the most outrageous question, but if posed as if it is a serious issue, you would get a significant number saying yes. The number may have gone up a bit, but there is still a long way to go.
Here's a link for the interested, yes.cymru are attempting to make/keep independence a separate issue from party politics, it will be interesting to see how that goes. Not sure about the website design if I am being honest, maybe it works better on a small screen.
It's an interesting question...I was brought up in Wales, and am now back living here, and my own view has changed. I used to be "no, stupid idea", and am now "hmmm...dunno..worth thinking about". For me to vote "yes" it would have to come with guaranteed entry into the EU.
However, I think it's a very long way from 39% apparently supporting it to a majority actually voting for it. (And if Brexit has taught us anything it's that a decision like that shouldn't be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority...say 60%).
+1 on so much being a reaction to the Westminster politics and decisions.
Best not ask Northern Ireland the same question... For historical and contemporary reasons.
And if Brexit has taught us anything it’s that a decision like that shouldn’t be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority…say 60%
But brexit has set precedence for 50.000000000000001% being adequate. WM will have a tough time explaining why any future referendum needs to be 60% when they themselves considered 51. 8% in an advisory referendum to be an absolute mandate. Every time they try to address it it will look like they are trying to stop welsh/scot/NI independence and support for independence will grow as a result.
I'm in Scotland and was very Pro-union as the only viable means to remain in the EU, as explicitly promised by WM. Since brexit I'm now in the "how much worse could it be?" camp and prepared to take the gamble now given the positive rumblings from the EU.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;"> All hail Boris, last PM of the UK! </span>
Cymref and Cymrexit roll better off the tongue.
Yorkshirexit? (Yes I don't doubt the rest of the UK would vote for that.)
Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?
As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.
Yes, I think this is actually: “we don’t want to be governed by the Muppets in Westminster”
To be fair, a sentiment probably shared my most people in England by this point.
I suspect this is the underlying sentiment.
I'll be honest, 39% as a high feels like a non story to me. I'd expect that sort of headline in the Mail, whipping up division, rather than a piece raising it for discussion (not a fan of ITV news so not sure how the story was presented)
Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?
As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.
I'm up for this. Vote WCA!
Bottle.
Genie out of the bottle.
FFS!
As an Englishman born and bred it seems poor form that the Scots, Welsh and even Yorkshire can consider the option of freedom from the tyranny of Westminster but we do not have that option.
You do have that option though, just create a party that stands for such a change and vote for it
And if Brexit has taught us anything it’s that a decision like that shouldn’t be made on a simple majority, but on a supermajority…say 60%).
No, that can't work. It has to be a simple majority vote. Can cause some friction if it's close but it's the least worst option I think.
Do you want to leave? Requires 60% to do so.
Do you want to remain? Requires 60% to do so.
It's just how you phrase the question that gets you your answer (if it's closer than 60/40)
.
You could argue that to change the status quo should require the 60%+ in any vote but can you imagine the fallout if a 59/41 decision was ignored by the powers that be? Or a 52/48? If people express a desire for something that should be enacted.
This is something the brexiteers seeded, the belief that experts, elites, distant bureaucrats etc are the problem
Now it’s biting them in the arse
A bit like how the English newspapers & media have ben pushing the "Scots are living beyond their means and the English are paying", and then wonder why when polled the English would vote for Scotland to leave.
Old but still relevant.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/vote-yes-scots-and-set-the-english-free
Yes Cymru can get in the sea as far as I’m concerned. They’re big on stickering everything in sight, and bluster but light on details.
For me the real lesson of Brexit is more important than what you’re leaving is where you’re going!
I’ve tweeted them, I’ve emailed them and never got a response. It’s a simple question. Where do they’d want to go? A fully independent Nation without a single trade deal with any other country in the work, no currency and a huge deficit of tax income? Be just an independently governed country ‘under the crown’ like Mann or an independent nation within the EU or something else?
Each option would have a huge impact on the future of Wales, most would mean a generation of economic hardship whist we find our place in the world.
Based on their SM output and more perhaps more importantly the beliefs of their most vocal followers they’re all dreaming of a Socialist Utopia, where we have a new, low value currency so we can compete with Asia and Eastern Europe for manufacturing jobs.
39% isn’t a majority, and 39% of People in Wales don’t want to leave, it’s a gross misinterpretation of the data.
For me the real lesson of Brexit is more important than what you’re leaving is where you’re going!
Very true. A clearly defined, pre agreed where you are going!
So long as I wont need a visa to pop over the boarder to ride my bike I dont mind what they do 🙂
Border!!
39% isn’t a majority, and 39% of People in Wales don’t want to leave, it’s a gross misinterpretation of the data.
Pre the 2014 campaign, support for Scottish Independence was running lower than 39% in the polls. Often in the low 30's.
Cymru can get in the sea
That's not how independence works. We've gone through this already.
where do they’d want to go?
Some info here
Yes Cymru can get in the sea as far as I’m concerned. They’re big on stickering everything in sight, and bluster but light on details.
Yeah but
Yes Cymru aren't a putative government, are they? They aren't even a political party. It's up to the political parties to decide that. So you'd need to contact Labour, Plaid etc and ask them what they would do for an independent Wales, if the country were to vote for it.
It puts them and the respective parties in a somewhat different position. If you're a YC supporter it would make sense to make yourself a Plaid supporter.
I'm just here for the grammatical errors winding up scottroutes
Intresting pendantry here.
I agree @molgrips. Going independent means being independent through left-wing, right-wing and every other -wing governments. yes.cymru does host meetings and discussions in which the economy of a future independent Wales is discussed, I have been to one. But at the moment it seems to be acting as a platform/forum for different people and groups to discuss their ideas about independence. You have to drill through a bit to get to more specific stuff.
a generation of economic hardship whist we find our place in the world.
Hear this a lot as a sentiment but it hides a bigger truth and is frankly only about the immediate future. It is a fudging of the truth that many unionists roll out. How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule. Sorry but Scotland’s had generations of unionist rhetoric which was total bull. We could still be in the EU today but aren’t because of the greed and avarice of the Tories.
Intresting pendantry here.
Where?
But at the moment it seems to be acting as a platform/forum for different people and groups to discuss their ideas about independence. You have to drill through a bit to get to more specific stuff.
This is entirely reasonable and probably a good idea. This way, you get a better discussion of the issues and a fair representation of support without it being tied to a political party. There are undoubtedly people who might support independence but don't like the idea of an SNP government; likewise some who vote for the SNP as an alternative to the others but aren't in favour of independence. Separating the two is probably a good idea.
I was thinking about independence whilst I was on my bike ride earlier (in Wales naturally). Wales doesn't have a lot of natural resources, really - but it did. And riding around the places that used to have them, I see a distinct lack of money. So where did it all go? To the rich, of course. Now - this could easily be used as an anti-English statement, but it needn't be. The issue is NOT that it went to England, it's that the money went to the rich who in most cases happened to be English or even Scottish. Why? Because these aristocrats owned the land and the mineral rights. And this is the main problem I have with the UK - it's massively unequal, because of the way the system has been since Norman times. Of course it's not unique in this. But then look at a country like Norway - it found huge oil reserves and they were exploited for the benefit of the people, rather than funnelled into private pockets.
The older and wiser I get the more fundamentally opposed I become to the way the UK is run. So whilst I despite nationalism on the one hand, I also despise the UK's inequality. And a smaller independent country such as Wales is likely to be more equal, even if it's poorer overall. Most of that YC pamphlet up there is rubbish, but it does make the point that smaller countries can change and adapt much more easily - due to far fewer vested interests - and this can be a great benefit.
But brexit has set precedence for 50.000000000000001% being adequate. WM will have a tough time explaining why any future referendum needs to be 60% when they themselves considered 51. 8% in an advisory referendum to be an absolute mandate.
I wasn't thinking about Westminster being generous enough to allow us to have a little vote...I was thinking about a UDI 😁
it does make the point that smaller countries can change and adapt much more easily
And a stab at self-determination can be a catalyst for that. This has long been one of the issues for/about the SNP. On the one hand, the should promote the opportunity that independence would provide for a bit of a clean slate. ON the other, doing away with the current socio-economic structures of the UK gives their opponents something to hit them over the head with.
How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule.
This sails perilously close to the Leave mantra of "immediate pain for long term gain". However, at some point there has to be a weighing up of the long-term consequences of remaining in the UK too. There is no status quo.
Would Scots accept some kind of federal solution?
Can we just expel Westminster from the UK and carry on without them?
That sounds like a great idea, and they could be like Rome, a city thats really a country in it's own right. tourist peeps coming to see Queeny instead of the Pope.
A federal system would be tricky for the UK because there would be just one big component (England - unless you split it up). So unless the English regions play ball you are not going to be able to create a sane system.
A federal system means that some things remain shared. That would likely include foreign policy and the armed forces. See any problem there?
"Hear this a lot as a sentiment but it hides a bigger truth and is frankly only about the immediate future. It is a fudging of the truth that many unionists roll out. How many years of economic misery has Wales suffered? How many more is it going to suffer under eternal Tory rule. Sorry but Scotland’s had generations of unionist rhetoric which was total bull. We could still be in the EU today but aren’t because of the greed and avarice of the Tories"
Interesting how that Wales' perceived poor economic state is blamed on Tory/Middle England rule, when large parts of Wales have had Labour/Plaid local government for decades, and yet no change is apparently evident? Maybe the Welsh 'Red wall' should back a different horse and embrace the change that the Tories can, apparently, bring about 😁
My house voted ourselves out of England. we're now an anarcho-syndicalist commune. We take it in turns to act as sort of executive officer for the week. but all the decisions of that officer have to be ratified at a special bi-weekly meeting.
👑🥥🏆
Federal system is the only way I see the UK staying together
And that would have to include English regions as well
Something Labour should really get behind
Would Scots accept some kind of federal solution?
I think the ship has probably sailed on that. There's a minority in Scotland who want no change (in fact an even smaller minority who want to abolish devolution). There's also a proportion who either really want a federal solution or see it as a good compromise (coming either from a "well at least its not independence and it might shut them up" or a "well it would avoid the risks of independence and might reduce the influence of Westminster"). Had it been on the table in 2014 ("Devomax") I'm sure it would have been the outright winner; probably to the effect of genuinely crippling the SNP for a generation. Brexit, the vow thats never come to anything meaningful, and absolutely no desire for political reform in England mean its so far from something that is on the table that it isn't even talked about as an option.
My view, is the only way you could get both sides of the Scottish discussion to see this as something worth looking at would be:
1. Total restructure of Westminster, to focus only on UK wide issues (foreign, federal tax, national infrastructure etc).
2. Abolish the lords, and replace with some sort of new 2nd chamber with none of the weird chronyism it has - people would be there on merit (I don't even need them to be directly elected; I think there would be an argument that they could be appointed based on some qualifying criteria, but with fixed numbers and much less party politics!).
3. England would need to be split into at least 5 regions + Wales + NI + Scotland. Each of those would have its own parliament - so health and education would be managed by the regions (no way would Lab/Con go for that - their major election topics are those two things!)
4. Each of the parliaments would need to have some tax raising and borrowing powers. [And you'd need to convince say Yorkshire that they want to trust some jumped up councillors with income tax. Anyone who wanted to put the voters off could point to higher rates of tax for above average earners in Scotland!]
5. There would need to be some proportional representation so people feel each person has the same power to change things.
And I think the critical issue would be that each region/nation would need to have the option to negotiate parity with the current NI position with respect to the EU.
Now even if someone comes forward with those suggestions now, it seems a bit like when you tell your boss you have another job offer and suddenly you are worth more money etc. It will sway some, it won't sway all and many will stay to see how it is but ultimately realise that all the things they say to stop you leaving don't fix all the underlying issues.
Major political reform will come in the next 30 yrs in the UK - not because some visionary Westminster politician has imagined a way to make the country and its democracy fairer - but because its so broken its the only hope to save it. The only way I can see it happening before irreparable damage to the UK comes about is for the Royal Family to be the visionary and force change by proposing the abolition of the formal monarchy - that seems as unlikely to me as Scotland being part of the union by the middle of the century.
Welsh independence is the stupidest idea ever conceived. Utter lunacy. It won't happen.
Why? smaller countries exist and flourish
@finephilly Would you be able to provide some details as to how you have arrived at that position?
Look at the benefits to Wales from being part of the UK. What does Wales really have to offer the world? Water, some lamb shanks and a few lengths of timber.
Outside of the UK government, Wales would be screwed for at least a generation.
It's not even a strong case in Scotland
That's no really detailing anything. Including what the benefits of the UK are.
I dont really know much about the case of Welsh independence, which is why I'm asking.
As to what Wales has to offer the world, off the top of my head, agriculture and forestry, automotive, tourism spring to mind. Suspect the traditional heavy industries might not be something you want to bank on.
From a purely economic view, Wales takes way more from than it gives to the UK.
South Wales - still recovering from post-industrial decimation, no way an independent Wales could support that area as effectively than when part of the UK.
What taxes could you legitimately raise from 3m people, with an average income far lower than the UK?
Mid-Wales; has received millions in state aid - this just would not be available outside the union.
Imagine the massive amount of extra civil service that would need to be setup, moved or re-purposed.
Trunk roads - can they really be managed by the Welsh Assembly.
Wales is not Monaco.
Take an example, recently built bypass - cost of £100m+, all came from National govt. Mid-Wales growth fund - £30m due to be injected over the next 10 years. I can't see that level of investment coming from Welsh taxes. Unless the entire country is sold off to Russian oligarchs or something.
The tourism industry can still operate under a UK government.
I just don't see how the benefits outweigh the downsides and risk. Like I said, pure lunacy.
Welsh independence is the stupidest idea ever conceived. Utter lunacy. It won’t happen.
What, stupider than Brexit?!
Yes, more stupid than Brexit.
Bear in mind Charlotte Church has a vested interest here. She just bought a massive house for conversion into a hotel.
Yes, more stupid than Brexit
Wrong.
It's more than leaving a trading block with alignment for mutually beneficial interests.
We are talking about leaving a union which has a more democratically elected parliament who tax and spend, administer day to day affairs and implement policy.
E.g. Education, Health, Policing, Judicary, Social security, Housing, Business, Culture, Media, Sport, Defence.
These have always been to a large part controlled by the UK government, not the EU (OK, you have European courts of Justice, Defence procurement programmes etc).
If Wales leaves the UK, all of these things have to be sorted out by Wales, not the UK!
There is no way the EU would accept Welsh membership with the same status as the UK had, assuming there was any agreement to even join!
Utter lunacy.
Do we need to start a Windyref / Wexit? Thread
Oh no you *ing don't boyos.
Scotland? Maybe, but they were sensible enough to vote Remain overall.
Wales? No, no, no. No way. You're in this with us english morons and that's where you are *ing well staying.
Utter lunacy
I'm not saying it's a great idea, but it's not the worst either. Plenty of small countries with seemingly little indigenous industry do flourish (Iceland).
As England lurches further and further towards an unpleasant corrupt jingoistic nationalism under the current government, there's no harm looking at the options....and an independent Wales inside the EU might be a better option - especially if (when) Scotland goes and Wales loses an important ally against the worst excesses of Westminster
We are talking about leaving a union which has a more democratically elected parliament who tax and spend, administer day to day affairs and implement policy.
Are you really trying to claim the Westminster parliament is more democratic than the EU?
I suggest you read up on how both work
independent Wales inside the EU
doubt that would be popular- Wales voted for leave, despite all the EU funding it has received over the years.
There is no doubt Welsh independence would be more difficult than Scottish independence due to the greater integration of administration with Wales and England - no separate legal system for example and also much more cross border traffic. However there is absolutely no reason why an independent Wales could not work.
I wasn’t thinking about Westminster being generous enough to allow us to have a little vote…I was thinking about a UDI 😁
Unexplained Drinking Injury?
Wales voted for leave
Well yes I know that...but we're talking hypothetically here...the chances of Wales voting for independence are slim to none (albeit increasing)
So, let's say it happens and Wales becomes an independent state, what then?
How do we raise taxes, defend sovereignty, teach kids, care for the elderly.
Who builds the roads, hospitals, schools, utility networks.
Where does the money come from for social security, the arts, business grants etc
What's the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
All these are currently being answered, maybe not well, but it is happening and we have a system for redress if anyone doesn't like it.
Will independence mean you and I have more or less input on these issues?
We can learn from other countries, but ultimately have to decide for ourselves what is best.
At the moment, it is still crazy.
E.g. Education, Health, Policing, Judicary, Social security, Housing, Business, Culture, Media, Sport, Defence.
Btw you know control of health and education are already largely devolved, yes?
And transport, as you mention it
What’s the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
But surely that's the point..Wales could have their own policies
Anyway, I'm playing devil's advocate...I don't currently think it's right but I'm becoming more open to some of the arguments
OK, maybe 'democratic' was the wrong word. What I am trying to say is the voice of UK people in UK parliament is less diluted than in the European parliament.
Becoming independent still leaves a lot of issues to be resolved.
Trunk roads are still administered by the UK highways agency and a lot of people travel from Wales to England for NHS treatment e.g. there is no A&E in Powys, so everyone goes to Shropshire.
Education has to follow the national curriculum as Welsh pupils often go to live in England.
It is crazy to suddenly stop all this and try to quickly make do.
The onus is one those who want independence to prove their case.
I’m becoming more open to some of the arguments
Mark Berry South Wales Prof makes some good points on Independence
"What sort of Wales do we want?"
https://swalesmetroprof.blog/2020/03/04/what-sort-of-wales-do-we-want/
Mark Berry South Wales Prof makes some good points on Independence
“What sort of Wales do we want?”
https://swalesmetroprof.blog/2020/03/04/what-sort-of-wales-do-we-want//blockquote >Thanks..that's an interesting read
I think the independence argument could be usefully harnessed to define what we want Wales to be. Once (if) Scotland leave the UK, I think the Westminster government will go one of two ways...more devolution for Wales to appease the independence movement, or, less...basically ignore the wishes of Welsh people and rein us in.
By having the debate now about what Wales should be in the modern post-Brexit world allows us to identify, and be ready to push for, what the people of Wales want..to lobby for more self-determination, or less, or independence (unlikely).
But we have to know what we want to be.
Perhaps the problem is precisely what you keep describing. Wales has been kept dependant on grants/funding and centralised administration, whilst Welsh industry was eroded and unemployment allowed to rise over the decades. Westminster has made that lack of independence and self determination all the more obvious by keeping the Welsh beholden to them financially.
If you'll forgive a somewhat indelicate and hyperbolic image, It's almost analogous to the relationship between a Pimp and a Crack whore, controlling and abusive...
It's not like Wales is without resources or an indigenous labour force. OK they might not be swanning round in gold plated Ferraris following a split, but all the arguments that supported the notion of a UK free from Europe, kind of stack up for a Wales free from the UK...
Not that I would want to see them leave the Union, but shouting the idea down and telling the Welsh their notions of independence are "Utter lunacy" because we've got all the cash, is a pretty solid way to nudge another 5% towards supporting an independence vote...
finephilly
Free MemberWhat does Wales really have to offer the world?
Consonants
Why? smaller countries exist and flourish
But TJ, those countries have either always been independent, or they were forced out of other unions due to intolerable conditions whilst on their knees.
The economy of Wales would be very hard to sort out. Look at map - the main transport links from the North and the South are both into England. That indicates how the economy is set up. There are some nice skyscrapers in Cardiff - a good number of those are call centres for English companies.
I'm not saying it's impossible to create a successful Wales, but it'd need an incredible amount of investment (which I'm sure the WG would provide, given the opportunity) and the economic situation would be extremely precarious for a long time. A generation or two would really suffer. Look at the problems experience by Ireland in the 20th century.
If it's possible it would need a long period of gradually increased devolution and investment - from somewhere, not quite clear where.
[strong]finephilly[/strong] wrote:
So, let’s say it happens and Wales becomes an independent state, what then?
How do we raise taxes, defend sovereignty, teach kids, care for the elderly.
Who builds the roads, hospitals, schools, utility networks.
Where does the money come from for social security, the arts, business grants etc
What’s the policy on immigration, asylum, crime, the environment.
All these are currently being answered, maybe not well, but it is happening and we have a system for redress if anyone doesn’t like it.
Will independence mean you and I have more or less input on these issues?
We can learn from other countries, but ultimately have to decide for ourselves what is best.
At the moment, it is still crazy.
We could start by asking Slovenia how they coped with becoming an independent state following the break up of Yugoslavia in the early 90's.
Size of country 22.3K km2 (Wales 22.7K km2), population of 2 million (Wales 3 million) current GDP following 30 years of independence 40K $ (Wales 31K $).
Instead of suggesting it cannot be done, ask what it is that Slovenians have that Welsh people seemingly don't?
welshfarmer
Full MemberInstead of suggesting it cannot be done, ask what it is that Slovenians have that Welsh people seemingly don’t?
Beautiful women
Independence for Wales or Scotland like Brexit will come down to political will and even with wee nippies recent challenges i think Scotland will get a fresh vote within 5 years, the government may also consider giving Wales a vote at the same time.
I have Scottish clients and many have shifted to an independent position due to Brexit, Scotland unlike Wales has a lot of "emotional" global support (US, NZ, Australia, Canada and even France) they also have a pretty good infrastructure and lots of space. The Border has limited North/South routes.
I cant see how Wales could deliver independence but i can see how Scotland could. Political support from the EU in assisting Scotland if they left would be significant- would i consider moving to Scotland if they gained independence? Probably but i am from Northumberland so its hardly a change.
If i was Scottish i would vote to leave, i would have no illusion of the challenges but escaping an endless Tory government has its attractions. If i was Welsh i would not vote to leave as i can not see any way to make it work.
Yeah, but this thread is about Welsh independence, not Scottish 😉
the main transport links from the North and the South are both into England.
This is a bonkers argument...look at the map...every single one of Portugal's links are into Spain, but Portugal seems to manage ok.
Molgrips - we basically agree. Welsh independence would be more difficult that Scottish but not impossible but perhaps inpractical
Yes, it can be done. But that doesn’t mean it should. Lots of spending is devolved, but not tax raising powers. Wales would have to find a way of generating public finances or face a huge shock if we just left.
The closest independent country i can see is ireland and it took them decades of struggle to create a prosperous economy and good jobs. This was mainly achieved through slashing corporate tax so international tech firms would locate there.
Wales could turn into the ‘hospitality’ capital of Europe, full of holiday rentals but i see this benefitting the rich few only. Also, it’s currently done within the UK.
Personally, i would prefer a more diverse economy to give better long term resilience- if one sector slumps globally, another is still good.
Surely it is easier to reform what exists and get more devolution ie some revenue raising powers, before trying to go it alone.
As a negotiation strategy, i only see this backfiring as the support is just not strong enough and Westminster knows it.
I don't actually think Welsh independence is any less practical than that for Scotland...I think people are generally massively underestimating the massive complexities that would be involved in Scottish independence. You think Brexit was complicated....that's not even close.
People always say "well Scotland has its own legal system"...well, so does Wales it just happens to be identical to England's. Grandfather in all the existing legislation and you're done (ok, it's a bit more complicated than that). But that's what they did with our legislation that was tied into EU law, essentially.
The biggest challenge is the currency...to my mind, that's why Scotland voted no last time...the independence movement had no coherent answer to "what currency will you use"? I've not kept up recently, but without that, you're in trouble.
Surely it is easier to reform what exists and get more devolution ie some revenue raising powers, before trying to go it alone.
Agreed.
In some ways, the situation of Wales is comparable to that of New Zealand...(and not just sheep and rugby). A similar (ish) population, with a much bigger and more powerful economy on the doorstep, but also easy access to a way bigger and more diverse market (Asia-Pacific).
NZ is a largely service-based economy (60+%)...as is Wales, and it's a sector that will only grow.
The last few months have totally changed my view on this. I always favoured keeping the UK together, but I think its is only a matter of when not if Scotland and NI are gone. If the question was Wales to leave the UK and join the EU, I'd vote for it tomorrow. I don't want to be shackled to a stroppy, sulky, deluded, fascist neighbour any longer than I have to.
If the question was Wales to leave the UK and join the EU, I’d vote for it tomorrow.
Agreed.
However...
The YC 'independence in your pocket' is no better than the Brexit Leave campaign. It offers everything, to everybody. Various options for currency, defence and trade agreements, all presented in a policy buffet without caveat - We can join the EU, we can keep the £, we can peg our currency to the £ or the € or the Swiss Franc if we want. It doesn't really matter if you're a Brexit hating centrist, a Rugby obsessed Patriot or a anti-government libertarian there's something to appeal to you which suits YCs agender of "Independence first, then sort out all the details".
Well, we've seen how that goes with Brexit. Wales holds a referendum, Leave wins, the Patriots, Nationalists, Libertarians, Socialists and Europhiles who voted for it all cheer, now we're an independent state that's the 25th largest in Europe and the 64th in the World, in par with Ecuador and Slovakia. We have a Tax deficit of £20bn per year (around £4k per head) thanks to our low GDP per capita of around £20k, putting us roughly in the position Greece was, when they went 'bankrupt', worst still our economy is tied the Englands, one of the richest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita roughly double ours and consumer prices to match. The only part of Wales that actually drives the economy is Cardiff, it's fair to say that a lot of the YC faithful can only say "Cardiff" by spitting on the floor first.
Now, it's fair to argue that this sick economy only came about in the same way other parts of the UK got there's a multi-decade shift from manufacturing to a financial services based economy based in London, "it's all England's fault" well yes, maybe it is, but you can shout all you like about who shot you in the foot, you still ain't walking alone.
There are only really 3 options for Independence for Wales
1) The Hard Way, Hard Wrexit if you like, we leave, we fight with England over trade and border access, our share of the national debt and defence and no doubt we'll threaten to cut of the water supply to the midlands as unless we're going to mine coal again, it's our only true natural resource. We enjoy decades of real hardship, brutal austerity and inflation until we're all poor enough that we can compete with Asia, Eastern Europe and the developing world for manufacturing.
2) We leave, but don't leave, we tie our economy to England's, basically more devolution in the name of Independence, we lose our MPs in Westminster, Westminster gives even less of a shit then they do now, if that's possible and we continue down this slow road of demise.
3) We re-join the EU, We have a very small window in which the EU may well welcome us back with open arms just to prove once again to England Brexit was a stupid idea and the EU, as they have in the past ploughs a lot more money into Wales than it ever got out to develop us into the Nation we could be, without plunging into the abyss first.
The problem is that there's no way a majority in Wales would vote for any of those plans, the only way they could pull it off, it to promise all of them, to everyone and then we just hope whoever ends up on top when the dust settles has got a plan.
Beware federal systems.
A system based on Scotland, Wales, NI and the English regions makes sense in headcount terms but tells, say, the Scots that they are really just an English region. Bit of a problem.
A four countries version , a United Kingdoms, would avoid that but how would you do it?
Voting rights in the federal chamber based on headcount would basically mean the federal chamber was English. Problem.
Voting rights based on statehood 25% each probably wouldn’t be acceptable in Surrey. (Bit like the EU wasn’t acceptable to the Brexies - or are they now called Flaggies?)
A system like the USA, junior chamber based on headcount and the senior chamber based on statehood, might work but I’m not entirely convinced. It might just annoy everyone.
Personally I fond it strange that most agree for a Welsh Exit to work (and the same for Scotland) is to join the EU. So you leave the control of Westminster - where you do have a say proportional to the population - to a supra-state where the influence is tiny. In practical terms the EU is driven by Berlin and Paris. And given that in the Brexit vote, Wales voted to leave, makes this a very hard sell in Wales.
The big problem with Wales is that in effect Wales is three countries, South Wales, Mid Wales add North Wales. Travel between the three is difficult, with different needs and significantly different issues. Addressing that is going to be challenging if you require a passport to travel between the different parts of the country.
And from my viewpoint this is less about leaving the UK and more about not wanting a right wing Government. Wales could survive as an independent state, but at a vastly reduced level. So it comes down to a balance of what is 'better'.