You don't need to be an 'investor' to invest in Singletrack: 6 days left: 95% of target - Find out more
I’m going to see The Specials in Halifax on Sunday.
I’ll be getting right up the front as reading all the posts in this thread every other gig go-er is going to be standing at the back.
Its quite interesting that on a site for mountain bikers which in its self is a risky pastime/sport there seem to be a lot of extremely risk adverse people when it comes to covid. Not a criticism more of an observation.
I am off to see New Order in Manchester in a fortnight, I am double vaccinated and they are checking covid status on entrance. I also suspect the audience won't be skewed towards the young. I am excited :-0)
I am not a regular one for gigs anyway, but I have cracked on with outdoor stuff with other folk - 24:12, marathon champs (support) and now just back from a scout camp.
Tbh it felt great doing these things after time away from them.
I don't think I would feel comfortable with a mass indoor event though.
Well, eldest (due his second jab next week) has just tested positive on LFT this morning. I've tested negative, MrsMC hasn't bothered testing and gone out to do a work visit 🤦♂️, youngest not out of bed yet.
Lovely souvenir of the Edinburgh Fringe
Its quite interesting that on a site for mountain bikers which in its self is a risky pastime/sport there seem to be a lot of extremely risk adverse people when it comes to covid.
If I fall off my bike, it doesn't break my 80 year old neighbour's hip. Communicable diseases are different to sports injuries.
And the data, readily available to all.
Assuming you ignore the non UK centric data
I'll hold off on removing the sensible personal controls that don't effect me in anyway such as masks , sanitising and handwashing for the protection of me and others around me till at least we have a data set that isn't based on a time period when deaths and hospitalisations were low prevax (ie last summer)
I know an 18 yo who went to Boardmasters who does some freelance video editing work for me.
He caught covid, it’s knocked him for six for the last week. He sounds f* awful on the phone - can’t stop coughing and it sounds grim. Hasn’t been able to get out of bed
I suspect the alcohol and lack of sleep have contributed to making it hit hard though.
extremely risk adverse people when it comes to covid.
It's almost as if different things are different and should be viewed/dealt with separately isn't it.
No way will I be doing indoor events or socialising for the foreseeable future (until later next year I’d guess). That includes pubs, restaurants, airports etc. A) I can’t spare time off work to have covid and b) Mum is immuno-compromised so I don’t fancy infecting any of my family. I’m just about OK with supermarkets at 7am.
It's quite interesting that on a site for mountain bikers which in its self is a risky pastime/sport there seem to be a lot of extremely risk adverse people when it comes to covid.
I guess most people feel like they have a handle on the level of risk they are taking with mountain biking. Whereas the risk posed by covid to the vaccinated middle-aged contingent is still a bit of an unknown (I'm not talking about hospitalisation), so I can understand it.
It's just anecdotal but joefm's story up the thread suggested all 10 vaccinated blokes caught covid at an event, 8 were fine, 2 still suffering weeks later. Not great odds if that is in any way representative. Hopefully some better data will emerge a some point. I'm not keen to push my luck, although on the other hand with kids at school it feels almost inevitable, so perhaps sooner is better than later?
I’ll hold off on removing the sensible personal controls that don’t effect me in anyway such as masks , sanitising and handwashing for the protection of me and others around me
That's my view. We knew the Fringe and travelling by train there and back was opening us up to more contact and risk than we've had in the last 18 months (both kids avoided it at school), so took precautions, and took LFTs when we got back - all negative though eldest was snuffly and full of cold on Tuesday, and again today as we were meeting up with friends, elderly parents, dentists and plumbers.
Fair enough if you judge the risks ok for you, but be aware and vigilant of the risk you may then pose to others afterwards.
Anyway, kind of hoping we have it (mildly) now ahead of the likely autumn/winter surge, return to school and start of uni.
Unvaxxed and unmasked and I would have no worries going to any event. Was a bit poorly march 2020, maybe the covids, maybe flu, who knows.
As for this being a site for mountain bikers as mentioned above. Big lol. Roadies at best 🙂
I’ll hold off on removing the sensible personal controls that don’t effect me in anyway such as masks , sanitising and handwashing for the protection of me and others around me
Likewise, just doesn't seem worth the risk to me; but them big crowded indoor events were never really my scene (I did go to the odd NWBHM gig).
Still doing a lot of group road riding at the moment, but we sit outdoors at cafes etc, which mitigates the risk a bit - everyone is double vacinated.
Unvaxxed and unmasked and I would have no worries going to any event. Was a bit poorly march 2020, maybe the covids, maybe flu, who knows
A colleague of a friend of mine had a similar attitude. Didn’t believe in the vaccine because he was in his 30’s fit and healthy and presumably assumed the risk was very low..which indeed it may be.
He died in hospital at the weekend after a couple of weeks in an induced coma due to respiratory distress from Covid. Devastating for his family and all those who knew him.
It can happen to anyone.
daveylad
Unvaxxed and unmasked and I would have no worries going to any event. Was a bit poorly march 2020, maybe the covids, maybe flu, who knows.As for this being a site for mountain bikers as mentioned above. Big lol. Roadies at best
What a geezer
2 guys coming to fit a recon stair lift today for my 91 yo mother.
I've divided the house up, we will be in an "air tight room" with all the stuff she needs, commode, food, etc etc... The guys will be in the hall/stairs with both front and back doors open for air flow.
I won't insist they wear masks though. I will be when I interact with them though.
Anything they can remotely be touching will be antibaced after they finish.
I'm quite nervous though!lol
I was at Green Man last weekend - being outside and in a crowd felt good. Although I made sure that I was at the back of the crowd and as such could control how close I was to other people. In one occasion in the big tent, I felt 'crowded' and just left. Have three re-arranged gigs in November - all inside. Not sure if I'll be going
What a geezer
He even has lad in his name just in case you weren't sure what a LAD he is.
What a geezer
"Geezer" wasn't the word that immediately sprang to mind.
What a geezer
I just assumed Troll.
Unvaxxed and unmasked and I would have no worries going to any event. Was a bit poorly march 2020, maybe the covids, maybe flu, who knows.
As for this being a site for mountain bikers as mentioned above. Big lol. Roadies at best 🙂
You absolute *legend! On behalf of those of us in society who are MASSIVELY at risk of dying due to being immune compromised I thank you for being a selfish *legend who thinks only of yourself when moving around the general public and your blatant disgregard for other peoples lives. Remind me to chuck a stick in your wheel when you clearly out gnar the rest of us eh?!
*insert whichever of the many fine swear words/derrogatory insults here that you wish
I just assumed Troll.
I don't think so, not active enough for that. I've 'followed' Daveylad's work (the name just sticks in my mind for reasons unimportant) and I don't know if they genuinely believe what they say or whether they just take the opposite view - anti-mask, anti-vax, pro-GB news....etc. Strikes me actually as not responding to the details or facts but just being anti-mainstream because that's where all the edgy cool people are.
As for this being a site for mountain bikers as mentioned above. Big lol. Roadies at best
Roadies: up at 4am every day to ride from Birmingham to Brighton and back before a breakfast of a quarter grapefruit.
Mountain bikers: drives to trail centre in Octavia VRS estate. Puts "rig" in back of uplift truck and is driven to top of hill. Rolls down hill for fifteen minutes to cafe, eats cake. Does same twice more over course of afternoon. Goes home for ten pints of sour flat beer from Colorado.
And as vaccine effectiveness wanes, that situation becomes troublesome again.
Now that the data is starting to become available it is not that good an outlook as thsi is just 3 months
or whether they just take the opposite view – anti-mask, anti-vax, pro-GB news….etc.
Surely that would just be Trolling.....
Plus the whole posting a dickhead comment and then vanishing from the thread, their work is done sort of thing.
Now that the data is starting to become available it is not that good an outlook
Why? It was never expected that the vaccine was going to be a measles type where you shoot once and you're good for life.
It's about serious illness and death that matters, efficacy is about stopping the initial catching of the virus. Scientists have said there's no indication yet that that aspect is compromised. If it was the elderly would have been queued up outside hospitals in the last wave as most were jabbed many months ago now.
Roadies: up at 4am every day to ride from Birmingham to Brighton and back before a breakfast of a quarter grapefruit.
Mountain bikers: drives to trail centre in Octavia VRS estate. Puts “rig” in back of uplift truck and is driven to top of hill. Rolls down hill for fifteen minutes to cafe, eats cake. Does same twice more over course of afternoon. Goes home for ten pints of sour flat beer from Colorado.
Lol, there is an element of truth in that observation.👍
It’s about serious illness and death that matters, efficacy is about stopping the initial catching of the virus. Scientists have said there’s no indication yet that that aspect is compromised. If it was the elderly would have been queued up outside hospitals in the last wave as most were jabbed many months ago now.
Agreed,
Half the problem from a public perception point of view is that Media love pushing out scary headlines like "Pfizer vaccine losing efficiency faster against Delta variant" and giving figures without context, which are misleading themselves, so Pfizer vaccine efficiency is dropping faster, faster than what? Jam Sandwiches? No it seems it's dropping faster than AZ, from 90% to 78%, well it seems AZ, which the majority of people in the UK had was only 67% to start with, and in the same timeframe drops to 61% - well that sounds scary.
Seems that BBC news doesn't agree, they say Pfizer "protection" starts at 88% after 4 weeks and drops to 74% after "five to six months" whereas AZ Starts at 77% and falls to 67% at 4-5 months, well hang on, statista says it starts at 67% and falls to 61% after 3 months?
But, does anyone really know what those figures mean or relate to? Because I'm sure we all remember figures showing all the vaccines offered "protection" of 99.sometime percent, why is now only in the 60s?
It's because Media don't like to contextualise data, because it reduces the emotional impact, there is in fact a tiny, tiny chance of dying of Covid 19 if you have had both your jabs. In fact if you're under 50 and even reasonably fit and healthy, it's just not going to happen.
To find a more reasonable opinion on the future of Covid, you have to scroll pretty far down usually, and even then, not all outlets will even offer one, but here's Nick Triggle, the BBCs Health Correspondent
"This study once again illustrates why we need to get used to Covid circulating - this is not a virus that's going to go away.
The vaccines do not work like they do for measles which provide life-long immunity. Immunity against Covid was always expected to wane.
And another factor to consider is that repeated exposure to the virus is likely to increase the risk of a breakthrough infection - the increased likelihood over time of infection post-jabbing may not be all related to waning immunity.
Whatever the cause though, experts have been clear we should expect to be repeatedly infected over our lifetimes.
The important thing is that each re-infection should be milder as the vaccines remain highly effective at preventing serious illness.
What the vaccines have effectively done is taken the edge off the virus - given our immune system a head-start so those early infections are milder than they would have been for most.
What's not clear yet is the merits of offering the most vulnerable a booster jab. It is likely to be a fine judgement call because there are so many unknowns - although the expectation is some will be offered it."
Which backs up my theory that, it's counterproductive for non-vulnerable people who have been vaccinated to try to avoid exposure, because it doesn't matter if it's now, or in 5 years, you WILL catch it at some point and you WILL do more than once, but the more you're exposed to it, the less and less nasty it will be, and it seems to me it's better to do so whilst your vaccines are 'fresh'.
I completely understand why people fear catching it and passing it onto some else, someone more vulnerable, everyone in the UK (certainly in Wales) has been offered a Vaccine, so they should have the same protection as you, if they chose not to, they have decided to assume that risk themselves. There is nothing you can do to stop someone being exposed to Covid at some point, it is inevitable, the the world we now live in. Even New Zealand doesn't expect to eradicate Covid, when they reach the level of vaccinations we have now, they will open their borders and likely without restrictions and allow the virus to spread through their vaccinated community because there are no other options.
Seems that BBC news doesn’t agree,
There is no one right answer / figure as each country had a slighlty different delay between jabs, which affects the effectiveness. Then add in the fact that each study was at a slightly different time with a different mix of covid variants and a different population and you don't have exactly comparable scenarios.
So there is a lot of 'approximately' to be added in to the mix.
Don't disagree with anything said above but it could still come back to a larger degree this winter due to vaccine waning at same time of increased infection and even in summer there is a high infection rate so to me risky events are going to be riskier in 5 months time.
Because I’m sure we all remember figures showing all the vaccines offered “protection” of 99.sometime percent
Pretty sure that was never claimed.
everyone in the UK (certainly in Wales) has been offered a Vaccine, so they should have the same protection as you, if they chose not to, they have decided to assume that risk themselves.
What about those who can't have the vaccine, however much they want it? What about those who are too young to be offered the vaccine? They might be vulnerable and at risk through no fault of their own.
everyone in the UK (certainly in Wales) has been offered a Vaccine
Not kids...
P-Jay
Free MemberBut, does anyone really know what those figures mean or relate to? Because I’m sure we all remember figures showing all the vaccines offered “protection” of 99.sometime percent, why is now only in the 60s?
I don't remember this 99.something claim. Just had a look back and when Pfizer's was first approved in the UK they were saying 95% 1 week after 2 doses from the 40000 test group which is totally in line with the graphics you posted.
But even if it did happen, the article you're responding to is about how the vaccines handle the delta variant, which didn't exist when the vaccines were developed and when those original claims (whether 99.something or otherwise) were made.
There is no one right answer / figure as each country had a slighlty different delay between jabs, which affects the effectiveness. Then add in the fact that each study was at a slightly different time with a different mix of covid variants and a different population and you don’t have exactly comparable scenarios.
So there is a lot of ‘approximately’ to be added in to the mix.
Exactly, and frankly we don't really know if the vaccines are become less effective at all.
Given a long enough time-line the effectiveness of vaccines is, actually 0%, or very close to. Because during our lives we will be continually exposed to Covid (it's not going away) and eventually you'll get a "breakthrough infection" so is the vaccine actually becoming less effective, or, now most of the UK is living with little or no restrictions, is the amount of exposure resulting in lots of breakthrough infections?
I think it's the mental leap that, after 18 really shit months of living with the totally justified fear of Covid, that we're all going to get Covid at some point, and if you accept that, then really the only measure of the vaccine that matters is, does it prevent people getting so sick they need hospital care, or worse die? Because in that respect all the Vaccines used in the UK are actually slightly more effective against Delta than they were against Alpha and it's still in the mid-90% range.
If you don't want to go to 'risky events' then don't, I wouldn't blame you, but I think we have to make these decisions with our eyes open, there will be no amazing end to covid sadly, there will never be a time when some dickhead in a suit stands at a podium and declares it's gone away forever, because it won't. People will continue to get sick with it, and sadly continue to die with it forever more, the best we can hope for is that our systems get so used to it, it just becomes another 'cold', even then it will kill the very frail sometimes.
Getting it the first time could be really shit, or you might not even notice, you might get over in a few days, a week or be knackered months later, but being vaccinated makes it far more likely it'll be a mild inconvenience, but it's going to happen, you can spend the rest of your days WFH, only leaving the house to shop at 3am and bathing your house in Dettol, but you're still going to get it one day and that goes for everyone else.
I don’t remember this 99.something claim. But even if it did happen, the article you’re responding to is about how the vaccines handle the delta variant, which didn’t exist when the vaccines were developed and when those original claims (whether 99.something or otherwise) were made.
It was the figure they gave and give for protection from hospitalisation, the most important figure. Frankly, the only one that counts.
It was the figure they gave and give for protection from hospitalisation, the most important figure. Frankly, the only one that counts.
I think you misunderstood the information
Now that the data is starting to become available it is not that good an outlook
That rate of waining looks like really good news to me. Perhaps I had lower expectations. Even after months, the vaccines are offering greater protection than natural exposure, without the same game of roulette as regards getting seriously ill. Boosters will be a thing. Hopefully for all if the government allow it.
What about those who can’t have the vaccine, however much they want it? What about those who are too young to be offered the vaccine? They might be vulnerable and at risk through no fault of their own.
AFAIK everyone over the age of 16 can have the vaccine, there are certain types of vaccine that some people with certain allergies it's probably not worth having, but they'll be offered an alternative. but that's not really the point I'm trying to make. It's good that people want to protect others against the virus, which was the most important thing prior to the vaccine roll out, but it is no longer possible to protect anyone from exposure to it.
It was the figure they gave and give for protection from hospitalisation, the most important figure. Frankly, the only one that counts.
I think you misunderstood the information
Maybe, after-all, they don't offer any context in the press when they report the figures.
Public Health England report that 2 doses of any vaccine offers over 90% protection against hospitalisation, it's probably a decent guess that 92% and 96% protection will result in over 99% protection against death?
It's how we can 'afford' to have such high numbers of cases, with relatively low numbers of hospital admissions and deaths.
Since last October the only time I've been to a pub was a couple of weeks ago,we ended up sitting in the beer garden after a walk in the countryside.The next evening I went to the St Helens v Castleford RL match,that was the first time I had been to watch the Saints since Feb 2020,I'm going again tonight v Leigh.
I'm double jabbed,worked all through the lockdown (Supermarket trucker) & I'll also attend Oulton Park BSB next month,I've got to the point were I've decided it's time to get on with life.
One of my mates has been a bit of a piss taker with the socialising & they all had a big weekend in Blackpool the other week,on the beer for 4 days watching Punk bands at some festval.He returned home Covid positive,finished his isolation the other day,he's in his mid fifties & double jabbed.He was back in the pub as soon as he got the all clear.
Which backs up my theory that, it’s counterproductive for non-vulnerable people who have been vaccinated to try to avoid exposure, because it doesn’t matter if it’s now, or in 5 years, you WILL catch it at some point and you WILL do more than once, but the more you’re exposed to it, the less and less nasty it will be, and it seems to me it’s better to do so whilst your vaccines are ‘fresh’.
Probably true, if we assume we'll never get any better than we are now at vaccines, other prophylaxis or early treatment. I do seem to remember rather similar arguments last year from those who believed vaccines would never be possible
Which backs up my theory that, it’s counterproductive for non-vulnerable people who have been vaccinated to try to avoid exposure, because it doesn’t matter if it’s now, or in 5 years, you WILL catch it at some point and you WILL do more than once, but the more you’re exposed to it, the less and less nasty it will be, and it seems to me it’s better to do so whilst your vaccines are ‘fresh’.
Given treatments are improving all the time and we'll probably get more vaccines at some point, personally I'd rather delay it as long as possible.
If you're one of the unlucky ones whose immune system just can't handle CV-19 (even though young, healthy, low risk group etc) you would have had a much higher chance of dying 12 months ago compared to now if you ended up in ICU. I would expect that trend to continue moving forwards.
P-Jay
Free MemberIt was the figure they gave and give for protection from hospitalisation, the most important figure. Frankly, the only one that counts.
Now I don't remember anyone ever making promises like that, let alone this 99.something. TBF I think you're remembering the data you want rather than what really was. Your current posts feel the entire same way, I think you've pushed the facts around til they fit the conclusion you want. I don't mean that in a nasty way, we all do it sometimes, but I think maybe if you took a second look you might feel the same.
The other thing is we’re in the middle of another wave at the moment (3rd, 4th?). Something to be said for waiting for that to (hopefully) pass through. Still, it’s not an easy one, I totally get the “it’s inevitable, may as well get on with it” argument.
, I totally get the “it’s inevitable, may as well get on with it” argument.
I get that too. I just don't understand why that means throw all protection away.
Why not get on with life with the things you can do to protect your self and others.
Just been to the one gig in Manchester at the end of August. Coincidentally, it was the 'group hug' band. I mean, I didn't get involved as I'm 52.
I probably wouldn't have gone if I wasn't vaccinated.
There's a few being advertised that I fancy. I'll just keep an eye on things and not plan anything long-term. I generally see POTD bands so I can make the last-minute decision...
I make a huge difference between indoor and outdoor events. No indoor concerts or sports as a spectator. Very few meals inside a cafe. On the other hand I'm a frequently out on the bike solo, with pals and happy to eat or drink with a few pals outside
@gordimhor - I'm with you. Bike rides with a pub stop outside = low risk, weekend on the beer in a city centre = high risk.
I want to minimise the risk of giving it to my 90+ mum, it's more important to me that I see her a couple of weeks (given that she spent most of last year stuck in her room in the care home isolating) than that I have my choice of fun,
My mum's just out of hospital again. She's had 2 falls this year, the GA to allow her hip to be pinned was the final straw for her kidneys to pack up so she now needs 3 dialysis sessions a week. The second time in she also picked up an infection that led to a peritonitis and ended up on IV antibiotics, with a 50-50 chance. She won that coin toss and is now back home.
My Dad's been amazing through this, after 60 years this year of marriage the pair of them are inseparable (and sometimes insufferable) and is now essentially her carer, while she recovers from this latest. He washes her, cooks, cleans, etc. My sister is brilliant too she lives a few miles away and gets shopping for them, so my Dad doesn't have to go out too often.
They all live in Reading.
Am I right to be scared when I read that Newquay is now the Covid capital of the UK. 2-3 weeks after a festival the virus is rife through the town in general. And this weekend 90,000 young people are descending on Reading for the festival. As any who have been will know, it's a town festival, ie: the site is less than a mile from the town centre so it's not self contained like Glastonbury. A substantial proportion of those 90K will be walking into town, going to the same supermarkets as my sister and Dad use, or giving it to pub and food outlet workers who then go to the supermarkets or live alongside my folks. Does Reading usurp Newquay in 3 week's time?
What proportion of the crowd will be
Unvaxxed and unmasked and I would have no worries going to any event.
legends, I wonder?
Easy to worry excessively after all you've been through, but shopping further away/on line for a couple of weeks may be a wise precaution to protect your mum.
I’m in a similar position of shopping for a vulnerable relative. In the theotherjonv’s shoes I’d be avoiding Reading shops for a while. There have been outbreaks after every festival this summer and it’s clear how contagious Delta is.
I make a huge difference between indoor and outdoor events.
Although hasn't there just been a big festival in Newquay which was outside and still been a super spreader event......
I was the Op so thought I would update, I sold the tickets and am not going.
We have kids at high school and with the amount of positive cases in their school it is highly likely they will bring COVID home in the near future, however that is pretty much outside of our control. Going to an event which is standing only, thousands there, and a bar that is open (therefore meaning people will be taking off masks) felt a bit like just pushing our luck unnecessarily.
I feel much happier not worrying about going.
We are not doing any events at present, despite the Festival and Fringe running and really wanting to get back to it. Because schools.
My wife is a teacher and has so many +ve cases in her class that only 1/3 of them came in yesterday. >1% of our kids' High School has tested +ve in the first week back.
I make a huge difference between indoor and outdoor events.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-58341338
500 cases so far linked to Bloodstock (20,000 attendance)
I'm working on an organised LEJOG ride in a week's time. The organisation seem to have pretty stringent protocols (and having worked on it before, they've always been hot about hygiene, hand sanitizer has been mandatory for years, there's little dispensers everywhere).
That said, they've still had outbreaks of food poisoning (I had it in 2018 on the final day, I was [b]so[/b] ill).
But yeah, at the moment there's a small but possible risk of the event getting half way up country and then so many people (especially staff) getting Covid that the event can no longer be safely run.
They're not allowing visitors into camp this year though, the rider briefing (which used to involve everyone cramming into a big marquee) will be done virtually so they're certainly taking it seriously.
Which backs up my theory that, it’s counterproductive for non-vulnerable people who have been vaccinated to try to avoid exposure, because it doesn’t matter if it’s now, or in 5 years, you WILL catch it at some point and you WILL do more than once, but the more you’re exposed to it, the less and less nasty it will be, and it seems to me it’s better to do so whilst your vaccines are ‘fresh’.
Tend to agree with this, with the proviso that viral load could well be important when it comes to severity. So if you can catch it by getting a whiff of it in a field somewhere, rather than by sitting on a coach next to some hacking, maskless arsehole for eight hours, that would be better.
Otherwise, most of the adult population is currently close to its maximum vaccine protection. By the end of the winter, we may well have a variant which evades vaccines better, and your vaccine protection may well be waning anyhow.
I'm classed as vulnerable, but even I'm weighing up the relatively small chance of death/serious illness now vs an unknown risk next year.
Our country is currently a training ground for vaccine evading variants - high caseload vs high vaccinated population.
Not a chance I would be going to any large indoor gathering.
, I totally get the “it’s inevitable, may as well get on with it” argument.
I get that too. I just don’t understand why that means throw all protection away.
Yep it’s a weird one.
We had AIDS in the ‘80s we didn’t stop shagging just used protection.
Nothings inevitable(apart from death and taxes).
Efficient air conditioning inside and a subtle redesign of stuff would help but that all costs money and tbh your not worth it. 🙂
(Some of you may die but it's a sacrifice I am willing to make.)
There’s also outside events and outside events with your tongue down someone’s throat(and what starts outside may not stay outside) so not all are equal.
(Have a free innuendo but tbh if you were strictly following the guidelines don’t forget it would have been be a sex free year so there’s plenty of catching up to be done.)
I was actually thinking of groups moving from outside to the the around the campfire or hotel room drinkies tbh.
^^^
boardmasters has always been a notorious teenage shagfest. I’d hazard a guess the std rates compare with the Covid rates…
the cycling club that meets in the shop i work at had their annual party last week, the shop owner asked why i wasn't going to the 100 people indoor buffet party. currently waiting to see how many positives there's been from the potential super spreader event
Leeds and Reading festivals this weekend.
Large proportion of attendees use public transport to get there; trains from all over the country bringing the masses to Leeds then shuttle buses to Bramham Park; picking up supplies at local stores on the way.
Super spreading here we come.
Leeds and Reading festivals this weekend.
Yeah, going to be a whopper that one. Then half the attendees will head back into schools and colleges shortly afterwards.
Can someone explain the figures in here in very simple terms for me:
BBC News - Covid: Delta variant patients twice as likely to need hospital care
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58354342
Is it saying that a double dose of AZ (I know, me,me,me!) gives you a 92% chance of not being hospitalised if infected? Which nears an 8% chance of needing to be hospitalised? So one in twelve? And presumably lower than that for younger age groups and higher in us older age groups?
With rising infection numbers, those sorts of numbers are going to be putting a(nother) big strain on the NHS very quickly.
My understanding is that an individual has a certain % risk of hospitalisation following covid infection. Obviously this varies widely depending on age/comorbidities. My rough calculation prior to Delta was that, as a 50-year-old asthmatic, I had a 5% chance of hospitalisation.
The vaccine reduces that risk by a certain percentage. So two doses of AZ might reduce that by 92%, down to a 0.4% risk.
I suppose this means that, with delta, my unvaccinated risk was 10%, and with two doses is 0.8%.
With rising infection numbers, those sorts of numbers are going to be putting a(nother) big strain on the NHS very quickly.
It's still a numbers game. Even with the lower %, if we start getting tens of thousands of cases a day among the older, double-vaccinated population, the number of admissions will mount up pretty quick and start shutting down other hospital activity.
I read the article differently, it was 92% chance of not being hospitalised, not a 92% reduction from the original risk level.
I like your numbers much better, from an individual perspective, but still big numbers at a population level.
Everyone's risk of hospitalisation/death is different. There's no way on earth a fit 20-year-old has an 8% risk of getting hospitalised. If the chances for everyone were averaged at 8%, then the risk to the middle-aged and above would be significantly higher.
Also, from the article:
Most did not need hospital care, but a small proportion - 196 (2.3%) of the people infected with Delta and 764 (2.2%) of those with Alpha - did.
Most of these were unvaccinated. If having the vaccine means a higher chance of hospitalisation, I'm a bit worried. 🙂
That's what was throwing me, the two reports didn't make sense in my head and seemed to contradict each other
Everyone’s risk of hospitalisation/death is different. There’s no way on earth a fit 20-year-old has an 8% risk of getting hospitalised.
Risk is averaged over a selected population. There will be a fit 20 year old out there that is nailed on to be hospitalised when they get the virus. We (and they) just won’t know who they are ‘till they get it. Others really do have no chance at all of falling ill, but again, we (and they) don’t know who they are.