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So I'm offshore in Israel, completely isolated from the world. Countries starting to restrict travel to and from China. Due to fly home with connection in Paris. Two young kids at home: one with undiagnosed respiratory disorder, one with impaired kidney function. Option to stay in Israel for up to a week.
Would you travel or stay and see how things develop?
I wouldn’t worry about travelling home at all at the moment. Sounds like you are needed at home...
What concrete says, all the best buddy.
Yep - home 1st option.
Just be mindful what your touching whilst at and around the airport ... rubber gloves and hand steriliser as precaution; not sure I would go all face mask; apparently after 10 mins of breathing they become moist and actually increase germs sticking to it.
Home it is. I've actually got a P3R half-face respirator with me, reckon I could seriously freak out an airport walking around with that on.
I would go home and ignore the panic that seems to be building online.
And remember thousands have died from Flu already this year no one is to bothered about that.
Home. There's no point staying in Israel for another week - if hasn't popped up in great numbers in Europe as yet, whereas there is the chance of cases starting to emerge in the next seven days.
I'd be heading home at this time, cases in Europe extremely isolated.
As others have said, flu, pneumonia and bronchitis will have killed far more at this stage.
I wouldn't bother with the gloves but wash / sanitize hands regularly and try to avoid touching your face. I don't think this is particularly airborne yet so no need for a mask.
I don’t think this is particularly airborne yet so no need for a mask.
It’s unclear if it’s airborne at this point but like many viruses it is spread by people coughing and sneezing, advice is to wear a mask in the presence of a possibly infected person.
Ox, I’d be heading home whilst it’s relatively low risk. It may increase in the time you wait, just take extra precautions once home.
I've benn debating my trip to South Korea in March, though i have a good few weeks to see ho w things pan out, lots of travel between SK and China. BA just annoynced they have stopped ALL flights to mainland China - pretty drastic..
Travel now.
Next week it will either be worse, both in terms of travel restrictions and potential for infection - which will be worse; or the same as now. (random foreigners sneezing near you, near zero chance of dying.) You'll only delay the problem, if one exists.
If you are truly concerned about your kids due to their health conditions, fly now, but then once back in britain avoid them/your house for however long the virus incubation period is.
not sure I would go all face mask; apparently after 10 mins of breathing they become moist and actually increase germs sticking to it.
I was at the ISPO trade fair in Munich last week building a stand for a well known avalanche backpack company.
Loads of Chinese /Asians around and just about every single one had a mask on. We joked at the time questioning what they knew that we didn't.
On Sunday I started feeling groggy. Been KO'd on the sofa the last few days and then I see in the news that someone in Munich has the virus! Haha!
Incidentally, I was installing a display not that long ago at the company from where the infected person works, which has now closed its doors.
And yeah, op, get the **** out of Israel.
Businesses are starting to extend the Chinese New Year breaks in HK or simply telling staff to work from home for another 14 days, Id go home before the lock-down in Asia starts to spread. I think the golden rule at present is to practice good hygiene (carefully wash hands, carry a sanitizer around, wear mask if possible etc) and don't travel with any large groups of Chinese!
Erm Alpin...might be worth ringing your health provider to ask if they'd like you to get tested...though it's probably seasonal flu...
And remember thousands have died from Flu already this year no one is to bothered about that.
Like your sense of proportion. Flu is far more widespread but not in the scheme of things very dangerous. The reason theres such a fuss about coronavirus is that if ever got as widespread as flu things would be pretty grim. Don't forget that the deaths are just the tip of the iceberg - 10 times as many people are critically ill which is both unpleasant for them and expensive and resource hungry for everyone else. Again thats currently just in the hundreds at present but how many extra critically ill people do you think the NHS has capacity for just now?
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate is currently estimated at around 2%. For comparison, the case fatality rate with seasonal flu is less than 0.01% (1 death per every 10,000 cases)
For the OP - unless you were travelling from or through a particular risky destination then obviously travelling soon rather than later is the better bet.
I know what my outfit for Halloween 2020 is going to be! Cheers!
+1 Mac
Even a 2 percent mortality rate (which could be an underestimate/overestimate until we have good data from outside of China), given it's infectiousness (which is currently estimated to be higher than seasonal flu), that's a lot of body bags.
Again thats currently just in the hundreds at present but how many extra critically ill people do you think the NHS has capacity for just now?
Zero.
If it goes as big as seasonal flu, there will be riots and food shortages. I'm sure Brexit will go just ****ing swimmingly in that scenario.
As long as you are not heading through China you will be fine.
I don't see what waiting a week would do, incubation time is 2 weeks, seems like it will be a couple of months before we know where we are with this? I am mildly concerned about some work travel I have plannned in spring, but imagine by that time if things progress we'll be cancelling.
I know what my outfit for Halloween 2020 is going to be! Cheers!
Nah, in three month's time, that will just be the standard NHS uniform.:)
This particular virus has the potential to achieve the perfect balance between mortality and ability to spread, including asymptomatic transmission. It's possible that it may mutate (further?) in favour of transmission over mortality.
As maccruiskeen notes, it's not just mortality, it's morbidity, and the particular kicker with this thing is that, from the limited data we have, it appears to cause quite a lot of cases which require hospital treatment over a sustained period.
I'm waiting for hospitals here to start pre-emptively clearing the surgery lists and the beds. Case numbers in China are still following the r0 forecast of 2.5ish currently, and it appears embedded in several cities, which means that it cannot be contained in the largest population on the planet. Which means it cannot be contained in Europe.
And remember thousands have died from Flu already this year no one is to bothered about that.
Really? You didn’t see the news reporting on it killing people in the U.K. in recent months then. Thing is with the seasonal flu is that you can have an annual vaccine to help control it, there’s nothing currently available for the corona virus so hence the other precautions.
More people have died of the H1N1 Flu (Swine flu from around 2009) in California than from this new Corona virus globally so far this year. Most people will get infected with a corona-virus of one type of another at least once in their life.
The main issue here is the incubation period, which at 14 days is long, this means that in our new globalized world people can travel and spread it further and faster.
I expect the RO numbers will stabilize a little once a true numbers start to come in, however this is China so Im not optimistic the full truth will ever be revealed.
More people have died of the H1N1 Flu (Swine flu from around 2009) in California than from this new Corona virus globally so far this year.
Global yes as it’s global not limited to China and a few isolated cases.
I expect the RO numbers will stabilize a little once a true numbers start to come in, however this is China so Im not optimistic the full truth will ever be revealed.
Hopefully yes it turns out to be not as bas as anticipated. That’s the problem it may also be worse then reported.
I'd head home. Give your circumstances I'd possibly consider a mask in CDG, depends on what the latest state is.
I'm back off to Tromso next week for work. It'll be interesting to see what's going on up there as the main tourist flow is now to/from China.
All the FCO advice seems to be about travel to China:
https://www.gov.uk/foreign-travel-advice/china/health
Don't waste your money on a mask; the virus is small enough to get between the paper fibres anyway.
, it appears to cause quite a lot of cases which require hospital treatment over a sustained period.
Yup, the recovered figure is actually lower than the mortality figure at the moment.
Fun times.
Can't understand why the WHO shat themselves over Ebola and not this - Ebola was way to virulent and only transmitted by contact.
“Don’t waste your money on a mask; the virus is small enough to get between the paper fibres anyway.”
Doh.
My work colleague has just bought hundreds of masks!
Don’t waste your money on a mask; the virus is small enough to get between the paper fibres anyway.
Other masks are available.
The masks will still have a positive effect as they are droplet spread. So the moisture will cause the mask to work. The thin ones are shit though. You want an ffp2 at least
Masks will help stop you from spreading the disease by aerosolizing the virus through coughing - and discourage you from touching your face. It's better than nothing, whether in the real world it leads to a lower transmission rate - I'm not sure.
With all the stuff about the masks being useless, I wonder how long till we see people walking around with full-blown respirators on?
Yep, just taken delivery of a few FPP3 masks just in case. I can always use them as dust masks when cleaning out the chickens so they won't go to waste.
As drac says not all masks are the same. You need an FFP3 mask to protect against respiratory infections. These look similar to regular masks but are tight to the skin. It needs to be properly fitted/sized up.
I’m back off to Tromso next week for work. It’ll be interesting to see what’s going on up there as the main tourist flow is now to/from China.
I was working with someone originally from Toronto last week. Topically the reason they are now in the UK and not Canada is the economic damage the SARS outbreak did in Canada 20 years ago. They work in film and tv - and with Canadian hospitals in lockdown production companies wouldn't/couldn't risk sending expensive-to-insure cast or risk the disruption that ilness could cause to schedules so the film business had to just up and leave.
With all the stuff about the masks being useless, I wonder how long till we see people walking around with full-blown respirators on?
As I understand it.. the wearing of masks in China is an etiquette thing - its not to stop you catching an illness its to stop you passing it on. If you have a cold you wear a mask, out of politeness.
That's certainly the case with some international students I've met.
Can’t understand why the WHO shat themselves over Ebola and not this – Ebola was way to virulent and only transmitted by contact.
It's one of the symptoms, to be fair.
Estimated 30,000 dead in DRC over the past four years, and 50%ish mortality, so worthy of a response. It's also one of those things where WHO intervention can make a big difference in terms of limiting geographic spread. It's arguable that geographic spread cannot be ultimately prevented in the case of this coronavirus, and my suspicion is WHO is (down)playing along with the Chinese government line as long as possible to gain access for data and virus sampling.
issues are healthcare systems falling over with increased demand coming in winter. Reason to keep it in china. Otoh atm I've got one kid locked down in china atm, window to get out closing. Should know in next three weeks how bad it will get. Heydy hody.
Confused. Is this Israel to UK we're talking about?
Yeah, Israel to UK. Just had my flights confirmed, flying back very early Friday morning. One lad was going Tel Aviv to Perth via Hong Kong, been redirected via London now, added about 10 hours onto his flight.
I've got a proper face-fitted Sundstrom SR100 with FP3 filter so will be good for my 5 hour layover in CDG. It's a hateful place anyway so I can't see how wearing a facemask will make it any worse.
Well, this adds a bit to my long haul flight from Vancouver this afternoon.
SARs could be spread through the eyes, so add some downhill goggles to that lol.
But only through really hard stares, not just normal looking.
I can use my ski goggles
And a buff as a mask 😷