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Another Tory Minister - Mrs Doubtfire Theresa Coffey - is asked the same question by Kay Burley as Honest Bob yesterday:
could you live on the £5.84 an hour that many people will now be surviving on under tier 3 restrictions imposed by the government.
No answer again, obviously, but 'some' people 'may' be eligible for universal credit
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316266673180160000?s=20
Followed that link greentricky and it led to a pay walled site. I presume you were trying to be ironic, encouraging us to track the link only to find no trace of information.
What I think you meant to say is that the government has funneled 8 billion pounds to their mates and assorted Tory donors who have no relevant experience but a track record of abject failure in any of their other endeavours.
Just don't make the mistake of calling the government incompetent. What they're doing is deliberate.
inky, £8 billions is a massive under-statement.
Government performance is a melange of incompetence and deliberate actions - those who benefit do so as a result of deliberate decisions; for the rest of us, we're at the whim of ever-changing decisions.
I'm now off to resume sticking pins into my johnson voodoo doll - hope they transmit direct to him.
The article I was linking to:
If ever you wanted to know what could go wrong with paying people to dig holes in the ground and then fill them in, look no further than England’s coronavirus test and trace system.
The idea behind a crude Keynesian fiscal stimulus such as we’re seeing is that it does not matter much what government spends the public’s money on. That cash will end up as people’s income, which they will spend. It then becomes someone else’s income and multiplies the original public expenditure significantly to ease a nation itself out of a metaphorical economic hole.
The test, trace and isolate programme was introduced in England in May. It was expected to bring huge returns to the economy, with the Treasury allocating £12bn to it this year, comparable to what the government spends on nursery and university education. The promise made by Matt Hancock, health secretary, was that it “will help us keep this virus under control while carefully and safely lifting the lockdown nationally”.
This was not one of the speculative moonshots the prime minister’s team are so hopeful will transform the economy. Instead, it was a supposedly a careful investment of 0.6 per cent of UK national income with huge returns all but guaranteed. The service would allow the economy to reopen safely, emerge from a Covid-19-induced more than 20 per cent drop in output, and limit pernicious long-term economic scarring.
Not only would the government spending form the income of employees in the test and tracing system, it would also enable many more people to resume their past livelihoods, generating returns far in excess of the cost. If it contributed to a recovery worth 6 percentage points of national income, a tenfold return would have been achieved in a matter of months.
The problem has been that the money was not spent well. Test and trace has been mired in crises since birth. This autumn, it has failed to deliver sufficient tests, been slow in informing people they have tested positive and allowed a spreadsheet error to miss almost 16,000 positive cases. Trust has evaporated to the extent that the UK’s scientific advisory group has assessed it was having at best a “marginal impact” on transmission of the virus.
There is a strong case to go further and say the £12bn has so far had a negative rate of return. By allowing people to believe the nation had built a world-class system, social distancing slipped, the virus spread and the country is again thinking about local or national lockdowns, with inevitable severe economic costs.
How governments spend money matters. As Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, said this week, “there is scope for sustained public investment, but it does have to be on projects that earn a rate of return and [our] history is quite mixed on that front”.
Latest coronavirus news
Follow FT's live coverage and analysis of the global pandemic and the rapidly evolving economic crisis here.
In the wider field of economics, an increasingly fashionable view is that governments should use fiscal policy and heavy borrowing to run the economy hot so as to use all available resources and minimise unemployment. The only downside, according to schools of thought such as modern monetary theory, is a bit of possible inflation, which can easily be tamed.
The lesson from British public-sector investment disasters, including the Humber Bridge, advanced gas-cooled nuclear reactors and the NHS electronic patient record system, is that the growth-enhancing promises of investment projects are often overstated and multipliers might be very small.
What test and trace has added to the picture is that if government gets it wrong, returns and multipliers can be negative. In other words, if you’re going to turn on the public spending taps, make sure you get it right or you will end up with a horrible mess.
This was just posted up of King Street, right in the middle of Manchester city centre at 8am this morning. Completely deserted. On a normal day, this street would be full of people
https://twitter.com/RedPed70/status/1317005060128317441?s=20
It's easy to see why Andy Burnham is resisting Tier 3. This is after 10 weeks of Tier 2. I don't see how any of those businesses with premises in the city centre can survive much more of this
Disaster capitalism is about making cash from chaos. This mob are beyond that, they're not looking to make cash from chaos they're looking to take cash from chaos. It's got nothing to do with capitalism, it's theft and corruption, pure and simple.
Binners,
I put my mind in 80's mode some time ago, I know it's going to be worse than that, this time there isn't too much fighting on the dance floor because there is no dance floor.
EDIT
On the plus side, living in central Manchester I've rather enjoyed cycling on the empty streets and enjoying the cleaner air this last six months! Lots of conflicted feelings though, watching the 'Manctopian' dream crumble is painfull, on the one hand I hate what they've done to my city, turning it into a 'New Suburbia' but on the other hand, seeing peoples lives and businesses thrown into turmoil is even more depressing.
Not getting much traction with the £50k digital project manager jobs I'm applying for. Just chucked in application in for a NHS contact tracer - seems cushy.
Any tips of scoring a customs agent job? Heard there's 50k of them going. Am very much willing to steal, rob and be bribed.
Well we've got part two of the Boris/Rishi good cop/bad cop routine
They need to do something or the business failures over the winter are going to be enormous
Lets see what they come up with
binners - yet again, nothing for you and many others like you.
I'm a realist Frank. I'm completely resigned to it now. To the point where I think the entire industry may be finished, for the foreseeable future, at least. As well as many others. I'm lucky in that I was in a position to diversify into something else that used a similar skill set.
Many aren't so lucky. By next March every sound or lighting engineer, graphic designer, photographer, events co-ordinator or cameraman is going to be driving an Amazon van or stacking shelves. Or, like Fatima the ballerina, we could work in cyber. If we're lucky.
We were deemed 'acceptable collateral damage' in March and that was never going to change
By next March every sound or lighting engineer, graphic designer, photographer, events co-ordinator or cameraman is going to be driving an Amazon van or stacking shelves. Or, like Fatima the ballerina, we could work in cyber. If we’re lucky.
That's leads me to wonder about something I've been curious about - how much content do the BBC/Sky/streaming services have in the pipeline, vs the speed at which new content can be produced with current restrictions etc. Realise that likely there is post-production work going on on a lot of stuff that was shot pre-March, but this is a pipeline that needs to be kept fed I guess.
Forgetting all the other terrible stuff going on, lockdown has been made more tolerable by some interesting series to watch.
Ignoring the all getting together on Zoom stuff, how do you keep the media content consumption beast fed? Animation carried out via home-working? The snarky answer I guess is something around a load of that backlog of movies that haven't come out this year being released direct onto media services, or re-cut into mini-series (like a reverse Das Boot).
The thing is the long term implications too.
You don't just have an on/off switch. These industries (because they are industries) have their own co-dependent ecosystems. Most of the staff are freelance. So they'll have had little, if any, work since March, and have been excluded from all government support, so have had no income at all other than universal credit.
So it's quite an assumption to think that next year you can just say 'ok everybody, we're going to start filming/recording/rehearsals again, can you all come back to work?'
To which the answer in most cases will be "I would do, but I've got all these packages to deliver".
My sister is saying exactly that for her Theatre. They may well be able to open in the spring but there will be no shows coming through as they haven't been rehearsing, the technical staff will all be unavailable as they will have to have taken other jobs and a lot of the companies that supply things like the sets, lighting and sound equipment will have gone bust. So anything to do with the arts, Tv etc is going to take a long time to get up and running again once they are allowed to resume working.
By next March every sound or lighting engineer, graphic designer, photographer, events co-ordinator or cameraman is going to be driving an Amazon van or stacking shelves.
Puts hand up.
I'll be living at my mum's with my partner and three kids for the foreseeable future. And I'm probably one of the lucky ones.
ooh ooh ooh....puts hand up too
Musician here so didn't even make it on to Binners list. Everyone knows it's a hobby not a job though yeah.....
I'm due to start as a delivery driver next Friday. As above, I'm probably one of the lucky ones.
What do you mean by March, I’ve been a binman since June. Not much call for any of our kit, just running a few zoom meetings. Hopefully enough work to keep the company solvent but not to actually pay anyone.
Hoy thread reboot!
So, todays development is that even the 'Red Wall' Tory MPs can see the writing on the wall and are pointing it out
Much was made of the ‘Red Wall’ Tory victories, but it was against the most hopeless labour leadership ever seen, and it was hardly some thumping landslide. Those MP’s are sat on paper-thin majorities. My own new Tory MP’s majority is 100 votes. He’s signed the letter despite being a rabid Brexiteer, Boris cheerleader and utter *!
What they will be painfully aware of is that our economy is about to go into freefall. Every day that goes by with no plan to get the north out of lockdown means more business failures, more job losses, more misery and hopelessness, more kids needing free school meals. The compensation being offered for this by central government is pitiful and amounts to little more than loose change. It’s a drop in the ocean compared to what’s really required to see us through a winter under lockdown. And everyone up here thinks (knows) this will be a full winter under lockdown. We’re not stupid.
These Tory MPs haven’t suddenly developed social consciences. They’re Tory’s after all. This is basic, naked self-interest. They all have tiny majorities and they want to keep their seats on the all-expenses-paid gravy train. They can see what we can all see from up here. That, far from Levelling-up, Boris and his Westminster chums seem happy to sit back and let a re-run of the 1980’s rip through northern communities again over a long bleak winter, while the South remains unaffected, as is has done up until now. Just to reiterate: ‘The North’ has been under Tier 2 restrictions since July. We only ever came out of lockdown for a couple of weeks.
They don’t give a flying * about us. Even their own MP’s know it.
Either that or those in power really are so economically illiterate that they completely fail to see the true magnitude of what is about to happen here
I suspect it's a mix of the two
Not strictly corona but part of the general cluster of imminent events:
Great news for consumers and bike shops.
Speculation: the government 'blends' Serco into the NHS, like the 'behaviour unit' into the civil service. In a trade deal any US firm can buy into Serco, result, they have further advanced the flogging of the NHS.
I'm hearing about proposed 'regrading' of some ancillary staff positions in the NHS to reduce their pay. Don't be surprised by anything.
I was in Manchester on Friday and Saturday. Friday it was dead in the business areas, shocking to see. Saturdy, only Market Street area had any numbers and it was a quarter of usual foot fall.
MrsF signed on today, furlough not extended for her. Another 1 to the many millions unemployed.
I was in Manchester on Friday and Saturday.
I've not been back since March apart from one day in June when I rode through the city centre on my bike. It was like a ghost town, and yes was shocking to see when you consider how many jobs are dependent on it. I don't know how all the hospitality and smaller retail businesses survived the first lockdown so surely they won't survive this one?
I'm even more convinced now than I was a few months ago that the era of big cities as a place for retail and business is over. There's still a role for them as a social space but without the footfall that business and retail provide they won't be able to support the range of food, drink and entertainment outlets so its something of a chicken-egg problem. For the likes of Manchester I can't see anything other than terminal decline and decay.
I don’t know how all the hospitality and smaller retail businesses survived the first lockdown so surely they won’t survive this one?
Having quite a few mates who run small independent hospitality businesses, they know they can't weather this. Some are trying to innovate and do whatever they can, but the games surely up now. They won't last the winter. Remember that in the north they've been in Tier 2 since July, which has meant operating at 25% capacity anyway. Those sums don't add up. With this just piling further misery on top of that.
You think Manchester City Centre will suffer? Wait until you see what the average small-town high street is going to look like by next March. Particularly as December is where they make a big chunk of their annual income. There's going to be nothing left. They might as well board them all up now.
MrsF signed on today, furlough not extended for her. Another 1 to the many millions unemployed
My wife signed on on Sunday. She was made redundant during Wave 1. She opened her own business doing beauty treatments as she was re-training anyway and it was going good. I think people felt safer as it was controlled by one person. She has to close it down tomorrow until who knows when but as she only has about 8 weeks earnings there wont be any support. Hopefully she can re-open in December but we will see. Post Covid I think we have seen enough that it will be a strong business for her but there are little opportunities in the run up to xmas unfortunately.
Watching C4 news, weve seen a 10% dip in the economy since covid, compared to about 5% in France, Germany etc, whilst the US has seen a 3% dip.
Sunak was saying this is because our economy is built around the entertainment, eating out type of thing much more than almost any other country.
Two things, whilst our economy might be more skewed toward leisure service industries than most, it's surely not to the extent that those figures indicate?
Secondly, what a damming indictment of the kind of economy we have chosen to build and how brittle and lacking in resilience it is in relation to outlier events.
what a damming indictment of the kind of economy we have chosen to build and how brittle and lacking in resilience it is in relation to outlier events.
UK economy has always been hugely exposed to consumer sentiment, now combined with a commercial property crunch that will knock on pensions and public services who are exposed.
dovebiker - covered in much detail earlier in the thread; having said that, no problem with your comment as it may prompt further discussion.
inkster
Free MemberSunak was saying this is because our economy is built around the entertainment, eating out type of thing much more than almost any other country.
Two things, whilst our economy might be more skewed toward leisure service industries than most, it’s surely not to the extent that those figures indicate?
Secondly, what a damming indictment of the kind of economy we have chosen to build and how brittle and lacking in resilience it is in relation to outlier events.
Ask yourself whether it's actually true, or whether it's a convenient excuse and the actual reason for our economy doing worse is because of the mishandling of the crisis- not just in terms of spread, fatalities, lockdowns, but also in terms of lack of clarity for businesses, unreliability of government support etc
And of course ongoing brexit uncertainty means our economy is naturally less resilient than Germany.
I agree with Northwind
Northwind.
It would seem that our economy is naturally less resilient than everywhere. When the incompetence and mismanagement along with Brexit is priced in I still don't think it explains away a dip 3 times greater than the US, hardly paragons of competence and management recently.
So Boris is due to announce the new guidelines once we come out of lockdown and it look like.
Tier 3 - is basically still lockdown
Tier 2 - Is what was previously known as Tier 3
tier 1 - What was previously known as Tier 2
To summarise what this means for the hospitality industry
https://twitter.com/charliegilkes/status/1330560006190739457?s=20
Everyone better savour the memories of those enjoyable evenings you spent in your favourite pub or restaurant. They're unlikely to ever be reopening.
Our mates just admitted defeat this week and called it a day on their successful restaurant that they've run for 15 years. They've haemorrhaged money since March, including the thousands they invested in making their business Covid-safe, and have now simply run out. It's going to be a sad loss to the town and is obviously devastating for them.
Their opinion is that everyone else in the business and all small independent shops are surely presently at the same financial position.
In the North we all know we'll be straight into Tier 3, which just means a continuation of lockdown under a different name. If we do ever get out of lockdown and you fancy nipping out for a pint, you'll have the choice of Wetherspoons, Wetherspoons or Wetherspoons and if you fancy going to the shops you'll have the choice of Tesco, Asda, Sainsburys or Morrisons.
The high street will be completely boarded up.
^ Looking that way.
Should Labour oppose the lockdowns?
No, but they should oppose people being left to hang as a result of the lockdowns
I think that given for years and years the 'health' of the retail sector in this country has been based on the amount of sales over Christmas and the subsequent sales from Boxing day through to the New Year, it is probably inevitable that things will have to change. It's been a house built on sand for as long as I can remember and although the change will be destructive and painful, it needs to happen.
TL:DR, buying shite you don't need is no way to run a country.
It would take a brave person to turn back that tide of shite. Agreed it is necessary though.
Should Labour oppose the lockdowns?
No, because they're necessary.
What the government should be doing is engage with independent businesses and offer them some hope or financial lifeline. They've just been hung out to dry, especially in the hospitality sector. The people who run these businesses have spent money they're not got to make their premises as Covid-safe as possible, just to see them shut down again with no financial help on offer. Absolutely loads will have quietly folded already. Many, many more will never re-open. The figures published yesterday said that if we they're unable to open until next year then 95% of hospitality businesses are now unviable
Talking to another friend who owns a bar last night and who's lost a fortune already, but is clinging on hoping they can open again next week (unlikely, given our greater Manchester location). He says he's considered suicide over the last couple of months watching his debts build up as his business sits empty.
Thats the reality of the present situation
Rishi is saying that the governments own figures are predicting a rise in unemployment to 2.7 million next year. I'm taking it that they're erring on the conservative side with those figures.
Something to look forward too
Nearly 3 million unemployed sounds like the early 80's but in reality it will be much worse than that. The headline figure is likely to be higher and that's not taking into account the gig economy and the 'barely' employed.
I really feel for those in the restaurant or bar/pub industry. I can't imagine the stress of pouring in all that investment to make your business safe in the almost certain knowledge that there was a second lockdown coming down the pipeline. It can only be seen a sign of the personal investment beyond the financial that the proprietors of independent businesses have. Having either spent years building something from within a community or having just started a business with a similar intention.
Notice how many of the bigger brand name restaurants shut up shop pretty quickly. Relying on the name of some TV chef or whatever they don't have the same societal relationship as your local pub or restaurant, they can just cut their losses and sit the downturn out an wait for the next round of venture capital.
The industry I'm most familiar with is the clubbing industry, which didn't even have the awful choices to make that bars and restaurants had. The entire clubbing industry just fell under the axe. As an 'industry' though, it might be more resilient, in that it has always been a fickle industry, experiencing upturn and downturns not necessarily in line with broader economic conditions. (I say this with many friends who have seen their businesses and careers frozen entirely at the moment)
As we come out of this covid nightmare, many sectors will struggle to recover due to a huge reduction in collective expendable income but I think there could be an explosion in the music and clubbing industry come next spring. Many major and established venues may have closed their doors for good by then but speaking as an ex promoter, all you need is an empty space and a sound system and you've got a business. The demand will be uuuuge, and not as restricted by expendable income as other areas are. The demand will be driven by a need, I bet there's more than a few old ravers on here who haven't been to a clubbing event for years who are dying to get their rock's off right now...nevermind the restless youth.
Rishi is saying that the governments own figures are predicting a rise in unemployment to 2.7 million next year. I’m taking it that they’re erring on the conservative side with those figures.
Something to look forward too
Yep, I guess the V shaped recession is going to be more U shaped after-all.
I get the feeling Covid has been pretty handy for the Tories in some respects, with furlough extended to March when things are supposedly going to be getting back to normal, I don't see why we have to lose a million+ jobs between now and June because of Covid.
I'd bet the hospitality sector is going to get battered over the next 4 months, but it's retail that's going to take the brunt of it. High Street retail has been in decline for decades, and for a lot of retailers they only really make any money in the run up to Xmas. This year is going to be a disaster for them with more consumers than every buying online and buying less. There are major retailers, household names who are right now praying for a good Xmas to keep them afloat. January is going to be a rough ride.
I think the reality is, with 37 days until Brexit and still no real deal/no deal in place it's going to be a disaster, it was a stupid thing to do in the best of times and it's positively insane now and with polls now showing that as many as 75% of people would cancel it now if they could, the only reason we're going ahead with it, is our Government was elected off the back of it.
with furlough extended to March when things are supposedly going to be getting back to normal, I don’t see why we have to lose a million+ jobs between now and June because of Covid.
Because companies will go bust due to other overheads they are committed to, not just staff wages. Loans, rent, maintenance, light, heating etc. - the list goes on.
There was a smarmy American economist from the Adam Smith Institute (so beloved of the Tory Party) being interviewed about it on the radio earlier.
In that cold, callous analytical way they have, she spoke of the upcoming tsunami of bankruptcies and job losses as 'creative destruction'. I've heard them use the same term with regard to Brexit. We know that Rishi and this lot buy into that theory.
The trouble is that with the people about to get hit (and I'm personally dreading what the next 12 months will bring), theres nothing remotely 'creative' about it. There is only destruction. Lots and lots of it. with all the misery it brings.
You only get to even talk about these concepts in such a matter-of-fact, dispassionate manner if your position of wealth and power means that you're safely insulated from their effects and have the capital available to take advantage of any new opportunities that may arise.
It looks to me like they're planning on granting the same level of empathy for those about to lose their livelihoods as they applied in the 80's.
I ****ing loath these stone-hearted, callous, compassionless bastards!
The theory of creative destruction has come in many guises over the years, 'who moved my cheese' is one version, annother is anti fragility. These theories have relevance with regards to how we individually deal with changing circumstances. When applied as policy it translates from 'who moved my cheese' to 'let them eat cake.'
Destruction isn't creative, reconstruction and reinvention is creative. I'm convinced Osborne and Cameron's austerity policy was inspired by such nonsense, I know they are fans of Nassim Taleb who wrote a book called 'Anti Fragile' at the end of the noughties, they got one of the it interns to read it for them and used it as a philosophical excuse for a policy of callous disregard.
Society is going to go through a fundamental change the likes of which we haven't seen in our lifetimes directly because of covid. To ride that fact like that lady from the Adam Smith institute did is disgusting, like surfing on a tidal wave of shit.
creativedestruction
FTFY.
1.4 million extra in poverty as a result of Coronavirus economic impact - 700,000 now and 700,000 only kept above the line because of the temporary extra £20 a week in UC
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/30/almost-700000-driven-poverty-covid-crisis-uk-study
We now have almost 1/4 of the country in poverty.
How do we get out of this hole, and with Brexit to come.....
We now have almost 1/4 of the country in poverty.
Reminds me of the quote about America, "a rich country full of poor people".
And one that we're following because the useful idiots were mobilised to support something that will harm them.
And one that we’re following because the know-it-alls sat on their arses while feathering their own nests for 20 years
Ftfy👍
know-it-alls sat on their arses while feathering their own nests for 20 years
This. Until we get serious about alternatives there'll be no change. The economic collapse is now starting to gain momentum. The retail sector is now well on its way, the hospitality sector not far behind, and then commercial property. Irregardless of brexit the economy is about to fall off a cliff. This is what a depression looks like.
The only saving grace is the continued use of QE, but that's mostly being used to prop up the banking sector to prevent a systemic collapse, and lots of people are making lots of money out of it. Must be nice being a millionaire banker having your salary and bonus funded by the magic money tree.
Reality is now beginning to bite - hard.
johnson and his acolytes in denial about the true effects on the economy; the detachment from reality shown in the recently announced £1k payment to wet bars - what a pathetic insult.
I had hoped the govt would recognise the need to re-balance the UK economy, develop plans and provide substantial financial backing.
What is their vision for the UK's future economy?
What do we get? Nothing.
The retail sector will change structurally to online and 'dark shops' for fulfilment.
Hospitality will be massively reduced.
Those two sectors combined will cause major headaches for local councils - much reduced income from business rates and car parking; how to re-purpose vacant shops; how to keep the tumbleweed at bay unless, of course, they're happy to see an explosion in charity shops, bookies, tattoo parlours, vaping shops.
In parallel the demand for their services is increasing rapidly.
As for out of town shopping centres, they will look unattractive when tenants end their leases leaving vacant units with no takers for them.
Key tenants in shopping centres - typically John Lewis, Debenhams (until today), House of Fraser - are revamping their operations so expect more bad news.
Local councils have, in attempts to generate new revenue streams, invested in smaller/local shopping centres and hotels; no doubt these looked like sound investments at the time but now are more like duds.
At the same time we have stock markets moving steadily upwards.
This will end in tears - and worse.
I agree with Franks last statement, we are going to see a huge rise in stockmarket values from 2021 into 2022 then it will collapse as there is little or no "real value" the same will happen with property- although agricultural land could see a big adjustment maybe as much as a 50% + drop sooner.
The UK economy post brexit will be shored by huge QE but and its a massive but the current government simply does not have the balls or brains to make the big investments/changes required- there is simply not a single MP including Rishi thats got the management skills required, they have all been "educated" to manage decline during the bad times and improve their wealth during the good. They are at best landlords with no skills to create and fulfil markets.
As soon as the markets get anywhere close to peaking cash shares, pensions, pau off debt, mortgage, downsize as much as you can, because whats coming over the hill will ruin many peoples lives for the rest of their lives.
The wealth transer in real terms is not to the few fat arsed Tories it will be China and the USA that take the power. The EU is going to have a tough time we on the other hand we dont stand "snowballs chance in hell"
The party is well and truly over - little did we know it....
So unlike the advisory threads on the subject then, piling ones life savings in vanguard/fidelity not a good idea now then?
Agree on the pub thing, thats so insulting it surely cannot be real.
Was cycling home from my girlfriend's today (UC ain't coughing up enough for fuel or public transport) and saw some diggers demolishing the multistorey car parks at RBS' headquarters near the airport. Kinda suggest WFH is high on the agenda.
Don't forget that all that QE is wrecking the future values of pensions - some of mine have dropped 15% in value in the last 12 months.
The consequences of a low wages economy are going to be very poor pensioners - the peak of the post-war baby boom is going to retire in the next 10-12 years. A lot of pension funds are exposed to the commercial property market. Without any economic stimulus / growth it simply means that the cake's going to get sliced even thinner unless we get busy planting some magic money trees or there's going to be a cut in state pensions.
dovebiker, a cut in the state pension is massively unlikely in the foreseeable future.
The triple lock combined with a vocal and motivated group who can be relied on to vote in GEs present a formidable obstacle.
As for occupational and other private pensions, I agree they will likely take a hit.
Will definitely be interesting to see which funds do well over the next 5 years.
I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?
I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?
FOMO. But that markets can stay irrational for a long time...
dovebiker, a cut in the state pension is massively unlikely in the foreseeable future.
Given that the UK lacks a sovereign wealth fund and that state pensions are funded from NI contributions we're going to reach a point where simply due to population demographics and stagnant wage growth we could reach a point where outgoings exceed income. One of the ways out of course is through economic growth, but to achieve that we'll probably require a huge influx of immigrants to take on jobs and look after an ageing population. But to bring us back on topic, hypothetically if there was a pandemic where deaths were particularly skewed to the elderly...
As Ian Blackford pointed out to Boris at PMQ's, there are still 3.5 million self-employed people who haven't received a penny in government support since March when their industries were shut down, and we're now seeing an increasing number of suicides as a result.
Boris gave his standard bullshit answer which roughly translated as 'I don't care'
I'd imagine owners of hospitality businesses won't be far behind with their massive thousand pound grant to make up for losing their busiest trading period. Thats really is just giving them two fingers
where simply due to population demographics and stagnant wage growth we could reach a point where outgoings exceed income
Paying pensions is not dependent on NI income. Pensions, as with all other govt spending will be funded through money creation, in the form of debt, and a govt deficit. Reducing pensions would be a purely political decision, not an economic one.
I see that investors in the US are switching from treasury bonds into equities; herd mentality in jumping on the bandwagon as share prices rise?
And they should be
If they are buying low and investing on a 5-20 year timeline they aren’t going to lose anything.
values from 2021 into 2022 then it will collapse as there is little or no “real value”
Expand please.
And they should be
US and UK treasury bonds have almost a 0 interest rate and in some cases are even negative. Why wouldn't investors by switching to shares? That's why the stockmarket is inflated, there's nowhere else for investors to put their money. It's a direct result of QE, because it's QE which is holding down interest rates.
Partly, if we weren’t implementing QE we’d be really ****ed though Daz.
They’re also moving because they understand that the drop in equities was caused by a relatively short lived pandemic in terms of economic timelines. In the long term, equities go up - buying in at a low is just a natural part of the markets equilibrium.
If they are buying low and investing on a 5-20 year timeline they aren’t going to lose anything.
Any shares I'd want to hold for the next 20 years have already exceeded their pre-Covid highs.
Cherry picking companies that have done well during COVID is a strategy not without risks, depending on whether you think they’re overvalued.
I’m mostly talking about tracker funds and managed equities funds, not people actively managing their own investments like you fin.
Partly, if we weren’t implementing QE we’d be really **** though Daz.
You won't get any argument from me against QE. It could be used in other ways though for the wider benefit of society.
https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1330492226678513669?s=20
I suspect that you're correct when you say that QE could be implemented in a more effective and equitable manner Daz.
The latest unemployment figures are showing that the period between August and October saw the largest increase in unemployment on record
https://twitter.com/Alex__Collinson/status/1338743897934229504?s=20
https://twitter.com/Alex__Collinson/status/1338749468414521346?s=20
Given the amount of those job losses that are in the hospitality sector, I'd imagine that sorry record will be broken again in the period we're presently in as more businesses go to the wall
Not quite in tune with the doom fappers here, and I’m all to aware of the overall situation. And yes it is a shit show.
But ...
For those in small towns, large villages not riddled with large chains. How are your high streets doing? I’m in a town of around 6000 and the occupancy rates for high street shops are at levels not seen in decades with even more on the way. I kind of expected a bump as commuters started spending locally but I’d not really expected quite such a big bump. No idea how long it’ll last.
How are your high streets doing?
A wine store in Calais has just closed, I don't think that has anything to do with Corona though.
Here in Pau the food stores are doing well but most others are struggling. Not surprising, in a country with already high levels of savings the population put a 90 billion euros into savings last year according to the Banque de France to reach a record level. Our household was average - what are we supposed to spend it on?
In Wales, they’re all ****ed because they’re shut.
I was just going to ask what part of the country you’re in?
Here in Greater Manchester the businesses have only been out of restrictions for 3 weeks since March. They’re ****ed!!
Loads of the hospitality businesses and independent retailers have admitted defeat already and are boarded up (our mates restaurant included, who put it into receivership a month ago after 15 successful years), the ones left are hanging on by their fingernails, all absolutely haemorrhaging cash.
The poxy government grants don’t even touch the sides. They’re insulting and derisory.
In short: the high streets of the North West of England are being decimated! There won’t be much but supermarkets and Wetherspoons left by the spring
I was just going to ask what part of the country you’re in?
Fife. I’m told it’s a Kingdom.
Here in Greater Manchester
Ahem
For those in small towns, large villages not riddled with large chains.
Admittedly needs a distinction made prior to the chains element.
Contrary to what your seeing as well, we’ve have 4 new cafes. 2 already opened 2 being prepped. How they’ll fare the next few months I don’t know. There has been a cafe closure a couple of miles away but that was always dead even before CV19.
We also have funding to “temporarily” redevelop a derelict site on the high street. Probably as an open air market space. Timeline for that is in excess of 6 months before anything actually happens.
Yes, doesn’t balance out. I’m just curious as to whether anyone else who lives in a similar* environment is seeing the same.
*by which I mean not a massive **** off city like Manchester
You know that ‘Greater Manchester’ isn’t just Manchester, right? That it’s a *ing massive area full of large towns, small towns, large villages, small villages and everything in between?
I live in a small town in the hills (with no chains, though I don’t know what difference that makes)
They all have one thing in common though. They’re all well and truly *ed! Because the businesses have only been allowed to fully open for 3 weeks since March
I’m very happy for you in Fife though. Sounds great.
Could you run us through what lockdown restrictions you’ve been under since March, for comparison purposes
Which Fife town?
Burntisland of all places
You’re in Edinburgh aren’t you YGH?
I’m very happy for you in Fife though. Sounds great.
Thats honestly a sentence that’s never been said/typed before. Usually it’s a mix of disdain and sympathy.
You know that ‘Greater Manchester’ isn’t just Manchester, right?
I had it as a conurbation on balance.
Could you run us through what lockdown restrictions you’ve been under since March, for comparison purposes
Im not able to accurately respond to that.
Certainly nowhere near as restrictive as you describe, by a margin of months at least.
You may want to jen up on your geography
That still looks like a conurbation to me and hasn’t changed my perception of the area
Well your perception is wrong.
But we’re not talking about geography, we’re talking about economics.
Greater Manchester (population: 2.5 million) contains a vast variety of hugely different local centres, small and large, rich and poor, built up and rural, all of which have been under the severest lockdown restrictions for all but 3 weeks since March.
Economically they are all absolutely ****ed!
Well, I think this interaction is going just swimmingly so far.
Economically they are all absolutely ****ed!
Hold on. Just today I was reading some presumably northern chap on this very forum saying we just need a positive can do attitude and we’ll all be some sort of left wing utopia.
You’re not suggesting he’s talking bollocks are you?